Welcome back to the Special Correspondents edition of Off the Record with Jonathan Oosting Samantha Shriber, Zoe Clark and Rick Pluta.

Our lead stories, The governor says no to any more tax cuts.

And what will she say in her state of the state?

Sit down with us as we get the inside out.

Off the record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible, in part, by Martin Waymire, a full service strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at Martin Waymire.com.

And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Sckubick.

Good morning to this winter morning in Studio C, You guys a long drive up from A-squared, right?

Yes.

Yes.

you know, a little snowy, got our Michigan boots on.

Cool.

I'm just trying to follow and keep some distance.

All right.

Let's talk about taxes or not.

It's an age old philosophical and political difference between the Republicans and the Democrats.

Republicans loved to cut taxes to help citizens.

Well, the Democrats love to spend more of that money to help those citizens.

And as the 2024 legislative session begins to unfold under the dome, the two sides are back at it on which is the best way to go.

Last Friday, the state's major bean counters forecast additional revenue for the state, minus those federal COVID dollars that created a massive surplus in Michigan government for two years.

Not anymore.

There's a lot less revenue for us to figure out how to solve some of these challenges.

But the ranking Republican on the House Budget Committee, Representative Sarah Lightner, she argues there is enough new revenue to give some of it back to you.

The governor, however, in a preemptive strike, is ruling it out, saying, quote, I don't see any big sweeping changes on that front, end quote.

So much for that.

Meanwhile, the House Republican leader Matt Hall has been blasting the Democrats for already raising your taxes in this new year as a temporary income tax cut last year expired because the Democrats did not extend it.

And he predicts the governor will raise taxes again based on some of the recommendations her Population Growth Commission has endorsed.

This Lansing chair of the Senate Budget Committee reports that everything is on the table at this early stage, but she has not endorsed a tax hike at this rate.

You're going to have to cut some of the budget.

You know, everything is a part of the negotiation.

If something's not working on behalf of the people, of course, will reconsider.

Meanwhile, the governor will lay out the groundwork for this traditional interparty political debate over tax cuts and spending when she releases her new budget next month.

Alright so Jonathan, the governor was talking taxes all week this week, and none of it was what the some of the progressive folks wanted to hear.

Yeah, right.

She's going on a tour across the state to remind folks of targeted tax cuts they did last year that are just now taking effect.

The governor is going to be her administration is going to be sending out checks.

In fact, starting next month to people who qualify for the earned income tax credit.

And, you know, it was a fairly large package, but a targeted one.

It doesn't surprise me that she's not interested in a broad based income tax cut.

She wasn't last year.

You recall Rick Snyder often opposed Republican efforts to do a broad based income tax cut.

Certainly different budget times back then.

But Democrats in general don't support cutting the income tax itself because it's a flat tax.

And the biggest beneficiaries of that would be the richest by a dollar to dollar amount.

Mm hmm.

And then you have progressive organizations such as the Fund, My Future Coalition and what They Want to see is a increase to Michigan's corporate income tax on businesses.

What that increase would look like, they're not quite sure, but they have done some polling and see that when people are initially asked about would you increase this, there is some support there on who they're opposed to.

Governor, sign off on that.

I would just can I can just go back.

Fascinating.

A hat tip on getting the Senator Sarah Anthony interview while she's getting her jacket on from the closet.

I know you go wherever you need to to get that interview, Tim.

No, I mean, yeah, I think we all did.

I think what's really fascinating here is like, this is just the age old conversation that we have in Michigan, Right?

Whether there's a couple extra $100 million after crack or whether there's $9 billion because of federal relief money that had come into the state over the past couple of years.

I mean, this is the age old conversation.

What do you do?

And to Jonathan's point, because there was this change last year, because there was then this opinion by Attorney General Dana Nessel that's saying, no, no, no, it's going to come up again.

And the fact is, you know, whatever happens, we'll be talking about this next year and the year after, because this continues to be economic policy debates between Republicans and Democrats and the state.

And we should say, you know, federally as well.

I would dare say that this is a great time if you are a policy nerd, because the legislature is very much kind of dipping their toes back into the waters of what will be 2024.

And there are some proposals on the table that do have affiliated price tags.

A big question that I have is, is the governor's what is it, the 15 weeks of paid family leave?

Is that proposal dead?

And it's on life support?

Well, anything can be negotiated.

And the thing is, the paid family leave is is actually pretty popular.

You know, on the on the tax front.

In the business community.

Except in the business community.

But, you know, there's still you know, the business community can can donate but you know, doesn't individually vote.

Or they could ask for something in return.

And they could I mean, everything is negotiable.

The idea of paid family leave is, of course, very popular in polling.

The question is, how do you pay for it?

Which comes back to the tax discussion.

The initial proposal by Democrats last year essentially would have been a payroll tax on most employees in the state.

You know, they'd have to pay into a system to provide family leave for everybody.

And when you ask people if they want to pay a payroll tax, I'm guessing those polling numbers don't look as good.

I was curious of some of the conversation right now, particularly this week, is I don't want to say like a news vacuum.

Right.

But there is this sort of set the scheduled thing that happens in Lansing during this period of time.

Right.

So like lawmakers come back after break, we're all kind of waiting, hearing what's going to happen in state of the state Wednesday evening.

Then, as you note in your setup piece, the governor, you know, puts out her budget deal.

There's this vacuum, too, because we have the 54-54 split in the House.

So we know nothing's really going to happen there until April at the earliest.

vis a vis tax cut or budget.

And there will be hearings I mean, it's a good period of time for people to talk about.

No votes on the budget are happening before April.

I think.

It's a great time for Republicans and Democrats and whatever other coalition do you want to throw out there to be able to.

Talk about what I'm saying.

In the abstract, what they would do.

Exactly.

Something like paid family leave, for example.

It is something that would take an automatic deposit out of your paycheck and then goes into a fund that would be overseen by the Department of Treasury that probably would not get bipartisan support, especially when you look at strong opposition from the Michigan Manufacturers Association, the small business Association of Michigan.

What could be bipartisan?

I wonder, could it be the FOIA reform?

Could it be some transparency piece.

Moving the tobacco tax over to vaping products and e-cigarettes, which the governor said if you listen closely, it's something she would look at.

She said, I'm not going to lead with that, but that's an overture to dance, isn't it?

Oh, sure it is.

And you might not, you know, I mean, the vaping tax might seem like, you know, it's an easy one, but I mean, that also falls on small businesses.

So that again, Governor Rick Snyder, former governor, tried to do that as well.

It was not popular with Republicans who controlled the legislature at the time.

It didn't go anywhere.

Now, have times change as vaping is more.

The governor went after the vaping stuff almost right out of the box.

Remember that she had a whole to do with them in the courts, stood in and took her off course.

COVID happened, not the policy.

Things kind of took a sort of a little bit of a backseat on that.

But Senate Democrats do have a package right now, and this is a pretty big tax.

It would be on a vaping electronic smoking device.

It would be a state tax or 57% of the wholesale cost of that vape.

And then there's other there.

There's some other components, too.

So, for example, a store, a retailer who sells vapes would have to seek an additional license from the state in order to do so.

On top of that, if you are a store and you have a poster that says, Come on in, we have pumpkin spice vapes, you could get a 1500 dollar first violation fine.

That would then go into a brand new tobacco and nicotine regulation fund.

Well, in this money.

Would I mean, and you could come up with a campaign to to sell that.

I mean.

Remember.

John Engler and running against Joe Camel versus school kids for raising the tobacco tax?

Not insubstantial.

Well, the campaign is very simple.

We will save your kid's life, huh?

And that's, you know, film at 11.

And there was some details.

A report just came out this week.

I mean, this is a little not too much about facing that.

Michigan actually is one of the the states that spends the least amount when it comes.

To recommendations from the CDC of how much the state should be spending when it comes to tobacco prevention programs.

Michigan was the second to last.

Like our population growth were 49th and everything better.

You know, what I.

Would.

Save some lives maybe that will help.

That would have to be reporting their inventory to the Department of Treasury.

That would have to feed up some additional costs in order to have vapes in their inventory.

Small businesses are they include convenience stores.

Let's also not lose sight of the fact that this is boys and girls, an election year and tax increases, they tell you in the playbook is stay away from them even if you can sell them.

So is there is there the nerve to go down there, even though the governor is not leading the parade?

Oh, I doubt it.

From the governor's perspective, I think what we're going to see is fairly status quo on the tax front this year.

There will be a lot of debate and maybe some nibbling around the edges.

But again, the governor is making a big point of pointing out what they did last year.

Republicans are going to keep harping on this issue because it's good policy.

Let me just ask this question.

Tax rate is going back up.

The Democrats let the tax reduction lapse.

Are they guilty of a tax increase?

Is that a tax increase?

Mr. Pluta.

Sure.

Is it It's total semantics.

However you want to play it, you can use both ways.

Is it.

Accurate?

Yes, it's accurate, but I want an anwerer to my question is it a tax increase?

Is it a tax increase?

Oh, my goodness.

I'm nervous to answer this.

I kind of want to get what's always said, which you can point to, because you can really it's all about messaging.

At the end of the day.

The tax go up.

Right.

Is that a tax Increase, then it comes out.

Ms. Clark Okay.

Mr. Skubick when all of the education funding was cut under the Snyder years.

Right.

And then they started to every year add a little bit more education funding back.

Yeah.

Would you say education funding went up?

You absolutely could say education funding went up, but the theatrics of it was cut.

So much so compared to what is I'm getting more nuance.

Was it a tax hike when Governor Snyder blocked the income tax rate rollback that had been set.

For our public television viewers who appreciate the nuance, we're trying to explain that.

I totally agree with you.

It's a nuance thing.

But here's the thing.

That again.

Yes, I agree with you.

Okay.

But the Republicans have the advantage on message.

In the right seconds.

There is no 3 seconds sound bite.

You want to talk about, you know, the tax rate or the revenue side, but they're still Linked.

Democrats, have the deflection available to them.

Still, the attorney general issued an opinion, a court has upheld that opinion so far that that tax cut was only meant to be temporary in the first.

But at least 20 seconds to explain that.

And you have to keep people's attention.

Yeah, You know, it's a it's a losing battle.

I think the the takeaway here is that you can describe it in, you know, what you said about semantics.

It was a tax increase because the tax rate was this and it went to that.

And you can go back further.

We never voted on that.

We never voted on that restaurant.

It's not an increase on a restoration.

It is still And strong on that message.

You had Craig Mauger on.

Using the money for?

Yeah, well.

You obviously had Craig Mauger on the show last week to talk about the Detroit News polling.

I mean, in that polling, it talks about, you know, what are some of the top issues that are getting voters fired up to show up to the polls in 2024.

And a majority of that was the economy.

It was inflation, it was the cost of living.

Tax cuts are nowhere to be found.

They're after, you know, a used car salesman regulations.

So, I mean, I think Republicans, they can be very fired up because when you saw the beginning of the year when the governor and the Democratic trifecta was doing things like the expansion of the earned income tax credit, it was doing things like trying to bring public pensions back to being tax free, which they were successful on.

Republicans were fighting to keep that rollback so that this rollback has to be protected at all costs.

Well, in the progressives also have been quietly behind the scenes talking about the old graduated income tax.

Okay, the fairness issue.

The governor said, what about that this week?

Did she rule it out?

She said that she favors it in theory, but that is not something that could she she endorsed it when she was a legislator.

She and she has confirmed actually she's not going to get away from it, but she's not going.

To on her agenda and not look it it would require you don't have to.

Rick Snyder, a finders fee for this show.

It's just got more mentions on the show than he did when he was governor.

Got something that the legislature, the governor can do on their own.

They couldn't put the question to voters, but somebody would have to be willing to spend millions of dollars on a campaign.

If you're a. Democrat, don't you want that on the ballot?

I also wonder, does the governor have because she is the co-chair of Biden's reelection campaign, does she have to do some heavy lifting in our state to get his approval ratings up?

So you have to be kind of careful with what you're willing to sign.

And that's why I think things like paid family leave could be in a dangerous position if that it will that actually get done.

And then there's some other proposals on the table as well that I could see the business community, they haven't spent too much money in the last year when it comes to opposition communications.

But there are some proposals on the table that I think they're ready to spend some money on.

All right.

Jocelyn Benson has opened a can of worms with the African-American community by asking the US Supreme Court to put on hold the redistricting of these districts to make them more equitable for African-Americans that talk about a heavy lift, what are the political implications of what she did?

Well, the political implications are you have a court ruling saying that these districts were racially gerrymandered and now you have the state's top election official saying, yeah, but let's wait until the next election cycle.

Well, her argument is that and perhaps there's validity to it.

We'll see what the court says.

Her argument is that it would be essentially too short of a timeline to make all these changes and to have, you know, a solid election infrastructure Unfortunately for her Candidates have to choose their districts.

Yes.

Well, unfortunately for her, the three judge panel said this could be done.

Right.

Yeah, I mean, we are I it's fascinating that after the Independent redistricting Commission, when voters approved it, I mean, it took a while to get these maps done.

Right.

And there was a lot of input and there were a lot of maps.

And now it's like, okay, but can you guys do it like a couple of weeks?

You give its much I mean, it's fewer maps.

I mean, it's six and then seven in each chamber.

But I mean, the brevity at which now they're doing it, I mean, it's it's just sort of incredible to watch and they're coming up against this deadline, to your point.

And so then you have the secretary of state saying, you know, can we hold off for a second?

Because there's all these deadlines to get ballots out and as Rick said, for candidates to decide which district they're even going to run it.

Well, if they have to get the seven House districts done by early February, that is coming up in, what, two weeks now, like February is right around the corner.

We were ten days away from February 2nd.

And there are some there are some people that will say they can just do the seven districts and that will be all.

But then there's also conversations of like, how do you make sure that you just stay within those seven jurisdictions?

Aren't other districts going to get impacted as well?

How do you change the district lines of seven districts without going into the districts that are in.

Thats what there for.

That's what we've seen this week.

Back to my original question of the political fallout here for Ms.. Benson.

There was a very, very nasty press release that came out yesterday out of Detroit from Sam Riddle et al., who basically said this was a I'm sorry, you.

Just say that he's a. Politica Consultant.

Yes in the African-American community, basically accusing her of taking that sort of a racist approach to that.

There was that not mentioned.

You guys didn't see that?

I actually didn't see this press release.

I'm not I mean, this has been a constant, I want to say back and forth with the Benson, you know, and the redistricting commissioners and Detroit residents who have taken this fight on have taken it to federal court saying that these maps lacked representation.

So it doesn't shock me at all that, you know, if if and when the secretary of state, as she did this week, is saying, wait a second, can we delay that the folks who don't want there to it and took it to court for the first time are going to say we.

Don't just want to take a dinner table conversation that we've had out, you know, and put it out on the table here and predicted that redistricting is going to go to court because redistricting always goes to court.

Rick Pluta ladies and gentleman.

And have you.

Ever been into the room where the Detroit plaintiffs involved in the case that, you know, basically flagged these districts are being racially gerrymandered when you are in the room with them, when they're holding their press conferences, these people are fired up.

They are outraged.

They have no representation in Congress.

And look, Secretary Benson tried to walk a fine line saying, I'm not taking any position on the the composition of the districts themselves, simply an election administration issue.

This is logistics.

This is mechanics To your point.

You know, critics who feel these districts are definitely or racially gerrymandered and are fired up about it aren't going to read that nuance All right.

So and and an unfair district is an unfair district.

And saying that we're going to wait two years to fix that problem.

Well, that is going to get people fired up.

Let's say, oh, I know that you want to move on, but I.

Do have to say who may or may not run for governor in 2026 if Jocelyn Benson and she's been kind of described as a likely potential candidate.

She's running.

She's going Sam, she's running.

You're breaking news here.

She's running.

She's writing another book, Tim.

Reading a book.

Thank you.

I need a segue to get into that.

But she's going to need those black Detroit leaders if she wants to have any success in a gubernatorial bid.

I'm done now.

Thank you.

All right.

Let's talk and turn the page on whether the governor is writing a book or not.

And there is a story.

Anyway, here's what she had to say.

I always look forward to this.

For the past five years, Governor Gretchen Whitmer has continued a michigan public TV tradition of this one on one exchange at the executive residence.

And the first question produced this revelation.

Given her new political profile on the national stage, a handful of journalists have asked her to write a book about her life.

At some point.

That might be something that I want to do.

Do you want to do that.

At some point?

At some point, I feel like maybe there's a short book to write.

It may be sooner.

And, you know, talking about different pieces of my philosophy.

The governor notes that after she is out of office in 2026, this might be next.

Ultimately maybe a longer form book, but that comes later, like maybe when I'm done being governor.

Coincidentally, in 2026, the governor will be out of office and it'll be just two years before the next race for president of the United States.

Other politicians before running for president wrote books.

Barack Obama did.

Former U.S.

Senator John McCain did, Michigan native Mitt Romney did.

What about Governor Gretchen Whitmer?

You know what people are going to say.

Everybody who's running for, you know what writes a book before you do it?

Yeah, well, lots of other people write books, too, and don't run for anything.

Do you have a title?

No.

Oh, it's obvious.

It's obvious.

What's my.

Title?

That woman from Michigan.

All right.

Would you buy a copy?

Remember, the governor was willing to be President Biden's running mate the last time he ran.

And remember in last year's interview, she did not rule out a bid for president, saying anything was possible after she left office and not before.

But listen to the first gentleman and then her on this revealing inquiry about potential life in the White House.

Would you like to retire in the White House?

No, but I'll say, how about this?

Leave it there as.

And the same question, you.

No.

Make of that what you will.

All right.

So the page six from The New York Post basically said that she'd already signed a deal with Simon Schuster.

She says, quote, not accurate.

What did you make of what she was saying there?

What was the most important line in there?

Oh, I know so much.

What was a lot of people write book.

Yeah.

I mean you've written a book Tim, and you're not, many books, two books Tim, but Shri Thanadar.

It was intriguing.

I think it's also interesting.

Page six I mean, like it's page six, but also, you know, Whitmer has a national profile.

She's making page six for the possibility of having a book deal That's interesting.

And you could have a book deal in the works and not, you know, yeah, I've signed the contracts.

It's not it is not shocking.

It sort of tracks with what we all sort of have seen as she has really just sort of skyrocketed into national media over the past five years or so.

The key line in there, the first book was not going to be about her life.

That's the real story philosophy.

I mean, the fact that she is considering a book before her time out of office, I mean, it stirs palace intrigue, of course.

I mean, there is still perhaps a remote possibility that something happens to Joe Biden.

He pulls out and the Democratic nomination decided at a convention, decided at a convention, were that to happen, I'm not saying it will happen, but were it to happen, of course Gretchen Whitmer.

Yes, she's she's in waiting.

I would put this question to you, Tim.

How many governors since Bill Milliken, not ineligible because they were born in Canada, have put some serious effort into at least looking into a race for president?

Well, the answer is all.

Of them yes.

And all of them have written books.

Bill Milliken had a book.

Jennifer Granholm made a book.

Jimmy Blanchard had a book.

I put on after the.

Fact.

Yeah.

I wonder if it's bad luck, though, to write a book while you are still a sitting governor.

Ron DeSantis has a book and so good in those presidential primary polls.

Our Andrew Cuomo had a book.

And we know how.

I know.

I know.

I know.

Gretchen Whitmer.

She's no Mr. DeSantis okay.

No, definitely.

But I think she I think she will wait until after her term until we start to seriously talk about will there are will there not be this book.

Alright Justin Amash says he want to be a U.S. senator, maybe.

And possibly speaker of the House.

And, you know, I mean like this is this is sort of par for the course, as we know about Justin Amash, that he tends to kind of put these feelers out about a little.

Late to the party.

There was I mean, what are we at now is it 11.

Conidering the fact that he left the party?

Well, maybe he wants to come back to the party.

Are we at 11 now?

Right.

Republicans running.

If they all show up.

If they all show, I mean, we're going to get close to a baker's dozen.

Yes, it does feel late.

He's West Michigan.

I mean, we've already got Meijer, West Michigan.

I just don't know what probably.

The former Congressman Lane, certainly.

The Trump critic Lane But I don't know exactly I don't know what lane you take at this point, But it's also, again, per like it's not shocking Whitmer's writing a book, it also doesn't seem shocking that Justin Amash.

Who is a Donald Trump, is going to put his fermata on this.

Okay.

Justin Amash is toast?

Yes.

No, Justin Amash, even I doubt that.

Yeah.

I still don't believe that Trump is going to make any endorsements in this race.

I think that's my personal belief.

I'm going to make a gamble right now and bet on it just because I think he's more focused on himself.

He has his own reelection campaign.

He has his own court proceedings going on.

I think I've said this before on the show.

I think the era of Trump goodies that we saw in 2022, I think that has concluded.

Talk to James Craig about that.

James Craig, see if he wants that endorsement.

And Rogers he also made a Trump endorsement and was talking about how we need to get Trump reelected to bring our 401Ks back.

That flip flop.

By the way, on Mr. Rogers part.

I mean, it's it's interesting that he wrote this editorial that was getting a lot of attention when he first ran in, saying basically that Trump was a detriment and now he's this week saying, well, maybe not so much.

It's interesting watching.

I'm going to get you.

To return to managing the.

Situation.

Did this show move fast?

Yeah, it sure did.

Thank you for all being here.

Don't forget our State of the state coverage, both on public radio and right here on public TV next Wednesday night at 7:00.

See you there.

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Learn more at martinwaymire.com For more off the record, visit wkar.org Michigan public television stations have contributed to the production costs of off the record.