- [Announcer] This is a production of WEDU PBS, Tampa, St. Petersburg, Sarasota.

- [Reporter] Coming up right now on WEDU, is the DeSantis presidential campaign nearing the end?

In a surprise, Democrats win a special election for a State House seat.

The legislature is moving to limit social media access for young people, and the DeSantis administration is taking more steps to ban diversity programs in college.

All this and more next on "Florida This Week."

(exciting music) Welcome back.

Joining us on the panel this week, Mary Ellen Klas is the Politics and Policy Columnist for "Bloomberg Opinion."

Trimmel Gomes is a journalist and President of Gomes Media Strategies.

Kirby Wilson is the Politics Reporter for the "Tampa Bay Times," and Kimberly Leonard is the Politics Reporter and author of the "Florida Playbook" for Politico.

And thank you all for being here.

Nice to see you.

Well after a better than expected showing, coming in second place in Iowa, Governor Ron DeSantis's presidential campaign is still in trouble.

- [Reporter] The next contest, the New Hampshire primary is this Tuesday.

And according to the polls, DeSantis is only in the single digits.

So instead, he's spending a lot of time campaigning in South Carolina.

The primary there is February 24th, more than a month away.

Never back down, the super PAC supporting DeSantis reportedly is laying off staff, a sign that DeSantis's once giant fundraising advantage is shrinking.

If former President Trump wins the New Hampshire on Tuesday, it will be a big blow to DeSantis and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

No Republican who has won two of the first three traditional early states, Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, has ever lost the party's nomination.

- So Kimberly, DeSantis had all that money a year ago, and he went to every county in Iowa to campaign.

How is he explaining what's happened to his campaign?

- Well, generally speaking, they are, you know, blaming the media a lot.

They're blaming an early call on the race, which did happen only 30 minutes into the caucuses.

But what was interesting is that this week, Governor DeSantis did an interview in which he said that he actually should have done more media.

He said that he made a mistake by only going on certain outlets at the beginning of his campaign.

And you know, now when you turn on the television, whether it's MSNBC, CNN, Fox News, even, you see DeSantis on all of the different networks.

But he did initially shun, you know, certain outlets.

And so he seems to be having a rare bit of introspection about what happened there.

Having been on the ground in Iowa, I would say that the majority of people that I spoke with, it's not that they didn't like Governor DeSantis, it's just that they liked Trump more.

And so they kept on saying to me, "Why not have Governor DeSantis in '28?"

So they see a lot of similarities there.

They hear what he's saying.

And so for a lot of conservative voters that they liked that.

But President Trump is really their number one choice.

And so they figure why support someone else when you can have Trump now?

So that's just in Iowa, that doesn't mean nationally, that doesn't mean in the general election.

But having been on the ground and talked to folks, that was what I observed there.

- Hey, Kimberly, what do we know about DeSantis's fundraising in the last few months?

Because a year ago he was the king of fundraising.

What's happened since then?

- Well, good question.

We actually don't have the fourth quarter fundraising numbers yet.

Those are due on January 31st.

The campaign, of course, can release those numbers earlier if they so choose.

Some campaigns have done that when they have really strong numbers, but we haven't heard anything from Governor DeSantis about that.

He's been asked multiple times on the campaign trail if he has enough.

He sort of brushes it off.

He doesn't directly address questions over whether his campaign is broke.

But from what I understand, talking to folks on the finance committee for the campaign, they say that he has at least enough to get through South Carolina.

He'll be in South Carolina this weekend, but, and he is expected to have a really poor showing in New Hampshire where he's only polling at 5%.

So hard to see them going past the next couple of states.

And there are plenty of people who think that he already should be dropping out now just because of Trump's formidable lead here.

- It's interesting you say that 'cause Laura Ingram and Fox on Tuesday night said that DeSantis should drop out.

So Mary Ellen, was there ever a path for DeSantis?

Was there ever a group of voters who weren't sold on Trump that might have gone for DeSantis?

- You know, I think DeSantis's miscalculations and I, and to some degree, I think his kind of, his instincts are not great.

His instincts were, because he won so dominantly in a reelection campaign that that should allow him to try and topple a cult leader like Donald Trump.

And instead, I think he's figured out that exactly what Republicans have been struggling to do since 2016.

And that is try and figure out a way to defeat Donald Trump.

And yes, there, you know, there might've been a path for him had he started and identified himself and defined himself differently early.

Right after he won his reelection, he was, you know, kind of on the ascendancy.

And that was really the last time, the lowest point Trump has been in the last year in terms of his political polling.

So instead, he waited.

The interesting thing is, I think he takes Trump literally and his support, and Trump's supporters do not.

For example, Trump says there's, you know, he's always talking about fake news and how fake news is his nemesis.

And then he talks to reporters all the time, and his, you know, his team talks to reporters.

Ron DeSantis took it literally and said, "Fake news is in, you know," identified it in a way and then avoided talking to reporters.

And that's because he just doesn't quite get it.

- Mm-hm, so, Kirby, I wanna put up something on the screen right now.

Former President Trump faces a mountain of legal issues in four criminal cases.

The former president faces 91 felony counts and two civil lawsuits that could cost him millions of dollars in damages.

Reuters Ipsos interviewed more than 4,000 US adults earlier this month and found that if Trump is convicted of a crime, 58% of the public, 91% of Democrats, 28% of Republicans and 55% of independents would not support Donald Trump in November.

I'm wondering if both Haley and DeSantis were thinking, well, if Trump just gets into a bit of criminal problems, you know, maybe he's convicted on one of these cases, that there'll be an opening for them to push through.

- Yeah, I think in some ways second place matters more than in any other nomination fight in recent history.

I mean, we've never seen a candidate this old, with this many legal vulnerabilities run for certainly another term, a non-consecutive presidential term.

But I also sort of wonder, you know, poll pulling is one thing, but when the reality hits and when somebody who is as beloved as Donald Trump is, gets to the point where he's behind bars, I think that would warp public opinions to the point where it would galvanize his base.

We've already seen it.

I mean, that's, I think one of the big X factors in this nomination fight that Governor DeSantis couldn't have seen coming was all of these indictments and what it would mean for President Trump's base and how much the core of support in the Republican party would rally behind him.

So, you know, I think those numbers are one thing, but I think that second place is extremely meaningful.

But I also wouldn't read too much into what polling numbers say about the general election in such a hypothetical scenario, especially one so unprecedented at this point in time.

- Because it's still so far out.

- So far out, yeah.

- Trimmel, what are they saying in Tallahassee?

What are you hearing about Governor DeSantis in Tallahassee?

When he finally comes back, I mean, we're assuming, you know, that he's not doing well, as everybody said in New Hampshire.

So if he doesn't do well in New Hampshire and South Carolina, what are they saying about his return to Tallahassee?

- Well, they're looking at his influence and how staying in this race and not doing strongly, it's weakening his influence here in Tallahassee.

The things that he wants to see happen, like, you know, people will take advantage of that.

Supporters will turn to opponents and saying like, "You know, you're not really that strong.

You're busy running around the country and not focusing on issues here in the state."

And we can see that in some races that have been lost.

So people are looking, they're looking closely, but there's something to be said about him sticking in and staying to it, because you never know until the end, considering all the legal troubles Donald Trump is facing.

And, you know, looking at the 14th Amendment, that third section of the 14th amendment that legal folks are looking at as to whether he qualifies based on the charges of insurrection, and we'll have to see the outcome of that.

- Yeah, and he is putting all his eggs in the South Carolina basket.

- Indeed, indeed.

And he's trying his best.

(Trimmel chuckles) You know, staying to it, going to the other parts of the country and hoping that like, you know, staying strong.

And Nikki Haley, she has stepped up her game, taking the gloves off, if you will, by really challenging Donald Trump head to head.

This is something that we see most of the Republican candidates have, like, you know, been tepid with and they're testing the waters more so and going after him.

And we've seen when you challenge Trump or Trump is challenged directly, he gets their attention and that brings more media attention to the candidate.

So it's a tactic that DeSantis might need to step in and really play with more to stay in the limelight.

- Okay.

Well, in a special election this past Tuesday, Democrats flipped an Orlando area seat House, a House seat that was previously held by a Republican.

- [Reporter] Businessman and military veteran Tom Keen faced Osceola County school board member Erika Booth in the special election for Florida House District 35.

Keen narrowly won with just over 51% of the vote.

He becomes the 36th Democrat in the Florida House, which remains solidly in GOP control with 84 Republican members.

His opponent was Erika Booth, a conservative school board member from Osceola County, whose campaign spent more than twice as much as Keen did in the race.

The winner will fill out the remaining term that was vacated by Fred Hawkins, a Republican who resigned to become president of a state college in South Florida.

Here's how Keen described how he won.

- Well, we were focused on the issues that we ran on, reproductive freedom and stopping or getting ahold of this insurance crisis.

Both of those issues, I think are non-partisan.

I think that they cut across all, you know, independents or Republicans or Democrats, and the folks know from me talking with them at the door that I mean what I say, and I say what I mean.

- So Kirby, this district did go for Joe Biden by 5% in 2020.

So it is a purple district, but Democrats are hoping they can replicate what Keen did in district 35 in Orlando around the state.

Is that possible?

Can it be duplicated around the state?

- No, but there, you know, look, there's bad news and good news here for Democrats.

Bad news, like you said, Joe Biden won this district by five points.

Tom Keen won it by one.

And you know, you could argue that's an erosion of support for Democrats.

Governor DeSantis won the district by 10 points in 2022, and so they've clawed some of that territory back.

But I just want to, I think it's important to just zoom out here.

The Florida Democratic Party has never been lower.

In both the Senate and the House, I believe, they have they're in a super minority.

It's a, they can't even make procedural motions to block bills in ways that they could have just a few years ago.

The most promising candidate for governor that they've had in the last decade was found on the floor of a hotel room with drugs and a male escort, allegedly.

You know, like there, the bar is so low for success in the Florida Democratic Party, and I think any success is something that they should be proud of and hold onto.

So I think what we've seen was them clearing the abysmally low bar that they've set for themselves in the last quarter century.

- And they're having trouble fundraising too.

- Well, yeah, I mean, that's always gonna be the problem, but no matter how much fundraising, you know, they can, no matter how much, so say they can ride the abortion wave this election and maybe convince the National Party that Florida is worth investing in.

The, as far as the legislature goes, it's so gerrymandered that it's gonna be difficult to pick up more than just a few more seats in order to maybe get over the 40 seat threshold in the House.

And, you know, and the, I think 16 seat threshold in the Senate, just to again, make it so we, there can be some procedural moves to block some of the Republican agenda come session.

- Trimmel, after this election, the Chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party, Nikki Fried, was pretty upbeat.

She said, "We can replicate this around the state."

Abortion rights, homeowner's insurance, some of the other issues that Keen ran on.

What's your take?

Is that possible?

- Well, that's very optimistic.

It will take rinsing and repeating 22 more times to really have any influence in this Republican super majority.

As just mentioned, Democrats have no power.

They really have to rely on friendships to get the least of the crumbs of their issues passed with their Republican colleagues.

So they're hoping, and Nikki Fried has said they're hoping that this gives some sort of boost and momentum, but they are really outnumbered here in Tallahassee and they need to do something, they need a miracle to even get competitive here at the capitol.

- Okay.

One of the top priorities of House Speaker Paul Renner this session in Tallahassee is restrictions on youth access to social media.

- Children have always faced mean girls and boys, but social media has changed the game and causes unprecedented damage to our children's mental health.

And here's the truth, the social media companies know this.

- [Reporter] The legislation HB1 is moving quickly through the House.

It would ban Floridians younger than 16 from social media, regardless of what a parent may want.

The bill requires social media companies to use age verification methods to prevent those younger than 16 years old from getting an account and to terminate existing accounts for young people.

When the bill passed its second and final House committee on Wednesday, several Democrats and Republicans who voted for it also said they wanted changes before it goes to the Chamber for a final vote.

Of particular concern is the lack of any exceptions to the ban.

- So Trimmel, is this one of those bipartisan issues up there in Tallahassee?

Is there support among Democrats also for the Speaker's number one piece of legislation?

- I think we find it's something that many people across the board are concerned about, the amount of time kids spend on social media and some of the risk factors that we hear about that they get coerced and tricked online.

But we have also found where Meta and these corporations are really now fighting for parental rights and saying that how this parents should have a choice here and this bill, this measure is taking that away.

So it's an interesting point and one of the things that I've always thought of is have we put forward a plan to hear from children, do a panel of hearing from these kids on what they would like to see, even from the Meta standpoint and from the policy making standpoint, hearing from these children.

Because just having this limit, as we know children and those under 16 will find a way around it, they can use other accounts.

What's to really stop them from jumping on these platforms?

- Kimberly, a lot of parents are worried about their kids' anxiety and depression.

It seems to be a growing problem, but the "Tampa Bay Times" pointed out this week that there's no studies linking anxiety and depression to social media.

What's your take on this?

- Well, you know, I don't know how robust the studies are.

I am thankful that I didn't grow up at a time where I had to even, you know, be on Facebook, let alone some of these other sites.

It does seem as though a lot of parents tend to feel, you know, that I talked to, they tend to feel some pressure to sort of go along because of otherwise, you know, socially being ostracized.

And it does seem like it would be, you know, very difficult because obviously it's a time of bullying, it's a time where people can't, you know, used to be you could, if you're bullied, you could go home and, you know, hopefully have a place, you know, where you feel safe.

Now you're connected with your phone all the time, and so people are, you know, being attacked verbally.

And definitely we, it seems as though it would be a mental health problem.

Others say, "Well, no, I get a lot of, you know, edification or justification from social media."

So it can be a mixed bag.

You know, I've seen that in my own life too.

But I will say, you know, that Florida's not the only place to have considered this.

There are actually countries in the EU that have looked at this out of concern as to what might happen.

And so, I don't know, maybe there's a way to kind of thread the needle on this, but you know, it can be a place as well for, you know, predators and for collecting data online that you don't necessarily know what happens to it.

So it, maybe it shouldn't be shut it down automatically, but there probably should be a conversation about the pros and cons of having kids on these sites and you know, what it means and perhaps a dialogue at least to get things started.

- And, Kirby, so even some of the Republicans and Democrats who voted for the Speaker's bill had some reservations about parts of it this week.

- Yeah, I just wanna say it's amazing that the social media companies are taking up the mantle of parental rights.

I think they know exactly how to get the Republican leaders' goat by simply saying that phrase and putting them back on their heels.

I think they're earning their paychecks with that move.

But I just also wanted to say, you know, I think if the Florida legislature is successfully able to govern the will of a 15-year-old, then I wish them all the best of luck in that.

- Okay.

Well, this week the State Board of education unanimously approved two new rules against DEI, diversity, equity and inclusion, that will apply to Florida's 28 state and community colleges.

- [Reporter] As the "Tampa Bay Times" reports, the rules prohibit spending on diversity efforts and on programs or activities promoting or engaging in political or social activism.

The other rule removes Sociology as an option to fulfill state requirements for what are known as the general education or core courses that all students must take to graduate.

The Sociology option will be replaced with an introductory course about American history prior to 1877.

The Board of Governors will take a final vote on the new rules this Wednesday.

- So Mary Ellen, it seems like the state is saying that we've won the battle against discrimination, against gender discrimination or age discrimination or disability discrimination, that we've won the battle and it's time to move on.

- Yeah, it's really kind of perplexing.

This whole, this entire issue just smacks of such hypocrisy because the state, you know, on one hand it wants to say that we don't wanna fund any programs or have any classes that even recognize that we have any issues relating to diversity and equity and you know, just because that's what they have perceived.

But it is speech control, it's thought control.

And at the same time they're doing that, you know, just last week when the governor had his state of the state speech, he bragged that Florida had eliminated and scrubbed public universities of indoctrination because of eliminating these programs.

And then on the same day, he announced that the university system was going to make it easier for Jewish students to transfer into Florida colleges.

Now that is a very good idea.

If students feel harassed, you know, and wanna come to Florida, that's great.

But it's just complete hypocrisy that on one hand you say, we're not gonna recognize giving, you know, a subjugated group any special attention and then give people who think they're subjugated special attention.

And this is the problem with all of these arguments.

It's just hypocritical.

- And Trimmel, I think the state is also saying that sociology courses aren't really worth taking.

They're too theoretical, they're not based on science or fact.

And we've gotta get back to history.

So what are the sociologists saying about this?

What are you hearing?

- Sociologists I've talked to say this is part of like a systemic effort by conservatives to ensure there are pretty much no limits on core concepts of sociological theories in public discourse, issues related to like societal structures, sexual, sexuality, gender, and race.

It's sort of like making sure there is no loopholes where these topics can be addressed or stand in the way of the current political climate.

The study of sociology is like, you know, looks at the causes and consequences of human behavior and going down this path, it sort of would restrict us from even having this discussion about these proposals and talking about whether it's right or wrong if we go down this path of can we even have these discussions about the current human behavior of restricting others from having discourse about sexuality and race and gender identity.

- Yeah.

Well, before we go, what other news stories should we be paying attention to?

Mary Ellen, you first, what's the other big story of the week?

- Well, I think it's really interesting.

There were a couple stories at the national level.

Axios and Washington repost Washington Post did some stories about how Donald Trump is basically sending the message that Ron DeSantis's former polling firm and the House Freedom caucus chair who have, who should not have anything to do, will not have anything to do with his campaign because of their support of Ron DeSantis.

This kind of vendetta pursuing effort is something that is kind of becoming part of the GOP brand and I think it's really interesting.

- Trimmel, how about you?

What's the other big story of the week?

- The ongoing issue of property insurance.

As a homeowner here and like many others, seeing that increase in the renewals with the triple and triple digit increases, like, you know, it's just getting out of hand.

So it's waiting to see what lawmakers in Tallahassee plan to really do about that in a real way to ease our pocketbooks.

- And now we're seeing auto insurance rates too, jumping.

Kirby, your other big story of the week?

- Yeah, I'm sure I wasn't alone in watching with bated breath as a senate committee discussed a bill to place more restrictions on kratom, which is an herb from Southeast Asia that some users use to fight opioid addiction, others use as a mild analgesic.

The "Tampa Bay Times" did an investigative series in December on how that herb is dangerously unregulated.

If you go to TampaBayTimes.com/deadlydose, you can read the whole story.

I was a part of it.

And I'll be following that bill very closely as I think you know, anyone who's interested in what those neon signs are in the gas station should be doing.

- A very thorough series.

And congratulations on it.

And Kimberly, your other big story?

- I've been keeping an eye on how the Trump campaign is working to win over the grassroots here in Florida.

It's really a way to show dominance over Governor DeSantis.

What they've been doing is that every county, one by one at a lot of their meetings, the county GOPs have been voting over whether to endorse or do a straw poll for who they support for president and consistently, of course, it's been former President Trump.

And so it's been interesting to see that turnover with the grassroots and it signals that the Trump campaign is not gonna make life easy for Governor DeSantis after the primary is over.

- Very interesting.

Well, Kimberly Leonard, Mary Ellen Klas, Trimmel Gomes, and Kirby Wilson.

Thank you.

Thank you for being here.

And thank you for joining us.

Send us your comments at ftw@wedu.org.

And like us on Facebook.

You can view this and past shows online at wedu.org or on the PBS app.

"Florida This week" is now available as a podcast.

And from all of us here at WEDU, have a great weekend.

(exciting music)