Thanks for tuning in.

Michigan veteran pollster Richard Czuba is on deck with data on the race for governor.

It's neck and neck and neck.

So sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in par by Bellwether Public Relations, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

Learn more at bellwetherpr.com.

And now this edition of Off the Record, with Tim Skubick.

Thank you very much.

Welcome back to Off the Record Nice to have you all on board.

So the president was in town and you had the opportunity to be there.

What was your lead?

Yeah, the president was in town.

He focused on the economy.

This is his third time speaking before the Detroit Economic Club, notably his, first time not during a campaign cycle.

So he came back mid presidency and came to boast that the economy was booming.

he, he took a lot of credit for a lot of changes.

you know, talked up his tariffs.

Not necessarily exactly the case in Michigan, there are definitely still some signs of slowdown.

Cost of living are still high.

He addressed that a little bit.

But, you know, overal was trying to rally, in a city that he has long returned to because of his connections and, and interest in the auto industry.

Did the audience go nuts?

Eh.

It was about what you expect.

Eh?

Eh?

It was about what you'd expec for an economic club audience.

Polite.

Flatline.

Yes.

But it was not a rally, right?

No, no, it was a little different.

What did you think of this Chad?

Well, it before the president arrived, we had some new polling, the Detroit News and the WDIV, that shows that 64% of voters think that that price or cost of things have gone up.

They don't since Donald Trump took office.

They don't think it's come down.

This was a huge aspect of his campaign, going against the Biden inflation.

And and really railing against that as he campaigned for, for the presidency in 2024.

So this is not, you know, it a poll and our, our guests, Richard Czuba the pollster, will talk about this is not going s well for the president's party.

He's not on the ballo this year, but for a lot of of his colleagues.

Or is that his, allies are on the, on the ballot, and and there' there's real signs of trouble.

and the president also came in and said the Democrats made up the word affordability, which was kind of a really laughable, line.

But everyone really kind of underscores the problems they have about talking about making life more affordable for average voters.

He's late to the party and talking about this.

He's been doing a lot of other stuff.

And finally some of his insiders said, Mr.

President you got to get back on message.

I mean, former President Biden tried to make the case that unemployment is low, don't pay attention to prices and all the money, your additional money you're spending on things and money you no longer have.

And now here we hav President Trump, who, you know, he did not directly defeat Joe Biden, but he certainly nudged him out of the race with the strength he had in the election and replaced him.

He's doing almost the same thing, which is kind of incredible.

The Republicans and his administration kno they're heading into a midterm that if past is Prolog, the Republicans are going to get their teeth kicked in.

That' why we've seen them engineering redistricting changes in Republican legislatures around the country.

And he's coming into Michigan, where they can't change the maps, trying to make the case that the economy is, good and that, you know, he is aware of these affordability and price concerns, but he's struggling with it.

And as Chad mentioned, the numbers do not look good for him right now.

And I recall during the election cycle, you know, if you're saying things on the campaign trail like I'm going to kill inflation that's a hard promise to make.

Inflation has the growth o inflation has slowed somewhat.

But it is, you know, still increasing.

People are still feeling those costs.

So that's just a tough, promise to make.

And then have to come back and defend yourself.

I think one of the issues he did not talk about was health care.

And and I mean, he did try to attack the the subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, enhanced subsidies that that expired a years.

And the problem with this line of attack is that the that the cost of of a plan on on the exchange.

If you're a blue cross blue shield customer, it went up 24% before the subsidies went away.

So subsidies goes away.

It's even it's it's double or sometime triple of that for some people.

And if you're Tom Barrett here in the seventh congressional and you're the most vulnerable Republican in Michigan, go in explaining that.

Yeah, I mean, Tom Barrett and Donal Trump are adopting this, this, this line of attack for this.

This is all just profit for the big insurance companies.

Well, not when not when al these other prices are going up.

Plus, everybody else has seen major changes in their health insurance, higher co-pays, more coinsurance, more out-of-pocket costs.

That that issue is rippling through the economy, in the workforce.

People are feeling it here in January.

And the president really was mum about about how did how to address that.

Did the governor meet him at the airport?

I don't think I, I don't think so.

If she was.

Nobody really appeared to really meet him at the airport.

She was crickets, during his visit.

Except now afterwards, she has chimed in on some of the stuff he's doing.

but, that's another story.

Lieutenant Governor Gilchrist did what?

You know, this is a fascinating story.

Before he announced for governor, many of us sat around this table and said, you know, this guy will run for secretary of state.

The problem was it took him almost a yea to get to the same conclusion.

I mean, he miscalculated.

and I think it was foreseeable.

this is now the fifth time.

How could you miscalculate?

You know when you're lieutenant governor, you want to be governor.

I think that's what.

I think it's as simple as that.

It's a disease.

He's now the fifth lieutenant governor since the adoption of the 63 Constitution to try to run for governor and not succeed.

and now he's running for secretary of state.

Personally, I thought he miscalculated by not running for U.S.

Senate when that seat opened up.

At the same time, I think he would have had a much stronger opportunity, to get a win.

The Democratic nomination there, as opposed to it was very clear he was going to have to beat Jocelyn Benson for the Democratic nominatio for governor, and everything was aligned for him not to be able to do that.

She has all the name recognition in the world.

He has none.

Jocelyn Benson is an extremely talented fundraiser.

this is the first time Garlin Gilchrist has had to raise this type of money for a statewide race.

He could not do it and he bowed to the inevitable.

now he's pivoted to the secretary of state race, and that is now a wide open situation.

Yeah.

Who knew?

Secretary of state would be one of the most interesting primaries or.

Well, you know, convention seats to watch.

There are so many people eyeing this, a lot of people who tuned in have been in the race longer than Gilchrist.

Now, you know, I think Gilchrist still makes a pretty strong case.

So he's.

He served in statewide office.

Has has some visibility among voters, but he now has to defend himself against several other contenders.

The one thing you've got going for him is they need to balance the ticket.

What does that mean, Chad?

The balance.

The ticket to have an African-American at the top of the ticket.

and there ar some African-American voters who are furious about this.

Adolph Mongo, the political consultant from Detroit, wrote a pretty fiery op ed, essentially going after without naming his name, Curtis Hertel Jr, the chairman of the Democratic Party, saying it looks like the Democratic Party bigwigs have engineered this.

Now, here's a big question.

Where is Gretchen Whitmer?

Yo.

Yeah she owes him one, doesn't she?

I mean, she has stayed silent in all this.

I mean, she just said the auto show the other day, asked about Mike Duggan's candidacy, and she made this comment.

Mike Duggan, is, we've worked well together.

But I'm going to support the Democratic nominee.

And then she said, but I've worked well with Mike Duggan.

I mean, and it didn't like, say, you know, he didn't trash, Mike Duggan.

It almost looked like Whitme is playing good cop right now.

her title is playing bad cop, for sure.

When it comes to Mike Duggan, but but again, what are they going to what is she going to do when it comes to, whether she's going to support her own lt.

governor for, for this new rac when her lottery commissioner, Susanna Shkrel just got in the race, as well.

And she's also got some other friends.

Yeah, but what does she owe more politically?

My words, not hers.

The lottery commissioner or the person who did eight years was a dutiful guy, and her side never tried to steal the spotlight.

You know where I'm going with this?

You.

But, I mean, I think we have to remember.

This is the first time in modern Michigan history that the outgoing governor did not endorse their lieutenant governor as their successor.

I mean, that is extraordinary.

we don't really know what's going on there, but there's some type of break.

I mean, I don't think I mean, that's me speculating, but I don't think it's unwarranted because the governor told you, I believe at some point.

Well, what difference has it made when a governor endorses lieutenant governor?

They've all lost.

Well, that's not what it's about.

It's about that your lieutenant governo has been your loyal number two when you selected them.

Usually you have in mind your successor and someone you're going to support, and then you don't endorse them.

I mean, Gilchrist, it was uphill for me to begin with.

The moment she decided no to endorse it was over for him.

He couldn't he couldn't have access to her donors.

He didn't have her going around the state to help him.

So, you know, will she endorse him for secretary of state?

And I think it's interesting that on day one, she didn't.

Yeah.

Well, what she said is that I've got a lot of friend that are running for governor.

Well, fast forward to Secretary of State.

She's got some friends there too.

The other things going on is the polling show.

And Richard will talk too about this is that, Whitmer is is entering her eighth final year with some of the best polling numbers, according to 60 cent since George Romney.

I mean the thing about the last two governors, her last year in office, Rick Snyder, engulfed in the chaos in the tank because of the Flint water, Jennifer Granholm, the Great Recession I mean, the malaise of the last few years of Engler, I mean, just the, and of course, then when she got voted out.

And so, I mean, this is not this is not looking good.

It's not a very good, track record for the final years of a governor in this state.

And this governor is riding high, and she hasn't give a single percentage point of it.

to to Garlin Gilchrist.

Yeah, I think at this point it's a little awkward.

Anyway you slice it for the governor, but the longer and longer it goes, it's raises some questions about you know, what her strategy is and who ultimately she wants to see in any of these seats.

Well, I think there's something really important here with these incredible popularity numbers that the governor has and we've just went through it.

Governors usually when they leave office, their numbers are in the tank.

They've also left office, oftentimes in the midst of a deep recession or bad economy.

Now, why is that important?

We've talked to ad nauseu about how the party out of power has replaced, the party in power in the governor's office for years when there's an open seat.

So if you're the Republicans, you're thinking, hey, it's our turn.

If past goes the way it has in the past, we're going to be sitting pretty.

But what's different now?

We have a governor sitting at 60% popularity rating.

We have an economy that while, you know, we talked about it, the prices aren't great, unemployment is low.

And then we also have a Republican sitting in the white House.

That's another difference from the past.

Usually it was, the incumbent party, incumbent governor party also had the presidency, which meant trouble for their party in the midterm.

So if you're the Republicans looking at all this, this has to make you uncomfortable.

Well, the in the problem is the president in the white House is not doing well on the very economy.

So there you have cell phones, 99 votes in the House to it's a semi ban.

Semi ban.

Essentially they'd exempt let kids still take them into into the cafeteria.

My kid does this I know this because I get text messages from her at 1155.

Usually every day one starts.

So so this is, a somewhat, statewide ban that's being contemplated to tr to rid schools of cell phones.

Teachers hate it.

I mean, I know teachers that they have they've come up with these boxes, schools have come up with these, like, locks.

They put the good phones in for the day.

I mean, all kinds of things to try to get phones out of their hands get books back in their hands.

there, you know, there's just a massive distraction.

But there's also this other factor that parents want the comfort of, being able to get a hold of them.

I mean, we all saw the tragedy.

It came out where there was one of the survivor kids, the kids who survived in New York for shootin was texting his parents, from, you know, a, you know, minute by minute detail, of during the shooting at Oxford High School.

And so, parents want tha a little bit of comfort there.

But teachers and educators in general want to have some more contro what's going on in the schools?

Yeah, clearly, we saw with the bipartisan support for this, even with some of the push and pull of how much should we allow students to have access to phones, clearly something that needed to be done.

A lot of, a lot of people were very interested in making this happen.

So it's kind of a rare show of bipartisanship to start the new year, to start the new year.

A lot of people in this town.

So I hope you enjoyed it because that's it did take me that last year.

And we we know how it ended.

So yeah.

Okay.

Well this is an interesting thing.

Look at the gold standard.

According to Mr.

Tisdel who is a major spy, he's been working on this thing since June of 2023.

Sometime the process takes time, he says.

Basically, it should be build a bill.

When you show up in the morning, bill, check your phone when you pick it up.

But when you leave on the final bill, he couldn't get that.

He had to make concessions to the Senate, but it will likely pastor next week.

I mean, look that we've everyon sort of left last year, right.

Everyone I mean people who work in and around the Capitol feeling defeated.

This place can't get anything done.

And it was a understandable sentiment.

But this is a significant, you know, significant achievement, right?

To start the year.

All right.

Let's talk to the man who produced our polling data last week.

Richard, how are you doing?

Good morning.

Good morning.

there you go.

Welcome to Off the Record, Richard.

Let's start with this point.

Mr.

Trump has been involved in a lot of controversies, some of which are apparently, according to your polling, dead unpopular with the public.

Is there a point in time where the Democrats can say, and they're hopin that it reaches critical mass, so that if you have a Trump endorsement as a Republican in the general election, it could hurt you.

Well, I do think Trump endorsement in the general is a problem for Republicans in the same way that it was in 2018 for Bill Schuette.

You know, you look at history and Republicans have a really difficult time shedding kind of that primary albatross and pivoting to independents in the general election.

And what we see again here is that Donald Trump has a proble with independents and Michigan.

but here's the difference.

And I want to point this out.

I'm not sure Donald Trump care what the voters think anymore, because Donald Trump is not on the ballot, but all those Republican have to run on Trump policies.

They are the ones stuck defending Trump policies.

And so the question is why aren't they creating more distance?

Well, that is the question.

And do you think at some point it reaches critical mass where they have to do that distance from Donald Trump before the election in the general?

Come on.

Right.

Well, they they certainly have to on the economy.

I mean, Donald Trump walked in Detroi this week and he pulled a Biden.

He told the voters, you're wrong.

The economy's great.

And the voters absolutely do not think the economy is in good shape.

And specifically I want to point out food prices.

80% of voters sa they are paying more this year than last year for food prices.

Even Donald Trump's own voters think they're paying more.

So Mr.. Nobody wins by nobody wins by telling the voters they're wrong.

Mr.

Trump, then, is a ticking time bomb for Republican running in the general election.

Yay or nay?

yes.

With independents.

And I guess I'm curious, what does that mean?

What does that mean for someone like Mike Rogers, for example, where he is a known quantity, he's he's pivote and made closer ties with Trump.

how does that play out for for some of these candidates who, who have that statewide recognition but also are, you know, trying to win some of these independents?

Well, you know, specifically in the US Senate race, I think we're looking at a very classic U.S.

Senate race in Michigan and that the fight is right over the center.

you know, two years ago, Mike Rogers couldn't wi this election with Donald Trump on the ballot, with Donald Trump winning the state.

he underperformed, specifically Donald Trump in Oakland, Genesee and Bay counties.

That was a big difference in the race.

My question is, what's he going to do differently without Donald Trump on the ballot?

he's got a separate himself from Donald Trump if he wants to appeal to those independent voters.

And that's what I'm going to keep my eyes on t see if there is any separation.

Now, the Rogers people might say they looked at your surveys that were in the Detroi News to say, hey, wait a minute.

We're we're ahead of all the, you know, of all three Democrats, you know, some of them within the margin of error.

So what's the problem here?

We're sitting pretty man.

What would you say?

Well, Mike Rogers has 72% name ID.

People remember him from the last election.

It's breaking 1 to 1.

He is in a dead even a rac with Congressman Haley Stevens, who has 41% name ID.

That's the problem.

And the undecided voters in that, had that in that that even race are independent voters.

Mike Rogers is well known with them and he still couldn't win them.

He's got to do something different than he did two years ago.

Within dependent voters.

I don't know what that is.

I'm going to watch to see if they know what it is.

but right now, the other thing we have to pay attention to is the motivational differences we're seeing between Republicans and Democrats.

you know 88% of Democrats are telling us they are definitely voting in this election, compared to 71.7% of Republicans.

That' a huge motivational difference.

And when you look at voters that are telling us, they're definitely voting, suddenly Haley Stevens jumps to a five point lead.

So Republicans have a motivation issue, too, because frankly, they're sitting home fat and happ that Donald Trump is in office and Democrats are angry as hell and ready to vote right now.

Richard what are, what's one big red flag for Democrats, that you found in the poll?

I think they there's red flags, frankly, for all the parties, you know, in the governor's race in particular, I think, the big Red flag I see for the Democrats is 44.5% of voters strongly disapprove of Donald Trump.

That is Jocelyn Benson's path to victory.

Are those voters in a three in a three way race?

You don't need 50%.

So that 44.5 is a big deal.

She's only winning 63% of those voters.

That's her pathway to victory.

She's got to bring hom those strongly opposed to Trump voters who are looking at Mike Duggan right now.

That's a big red flag for them.

When you were on this show last, you had just recently pulled the governor's race, and I believe you had Mike Duggan at about 21%.

I think I asked you then, i this the floor or the ceiling?

Well now we know it's not the ceiling because you've got him at 26% now.

hum.

But how much more room for growth is there?

One thing I found interesting in your new survey is his name.

It has gone way, way up, especially Outstate, where he had a lot of work to do, but he's still in third place.

Well, you know, when we did the May survey, I, you know, I don't think anybody back in May would have, would have, yo know, thought that Mike Duggan going to be within seven points, the lead here at the start of the year.

He is.

And you know as a pollster I look at methodical growth and changes.

And the only candidate getting any methodical growth or change in their numbers right now is Mike Duggan going from 21 to 26.

And that increase came specifically in Outstate Michigan.

His name ID jumped from 31 to 56.

He added five points and it came from out state.

You know we talke about the red flags for Benson, the red flag for John James as he's running this, what appears to be a bunker campaign to not alienate Donald Trump right now.

And it's giving oxygen to Mike Duggan and Outstate.

Mike Duggan is just marching like Sherman throughout state Michigan right now and introducing himself to voters.

And John James and th Republicans need to stop that, or they're going to see, as we see in these numbers, we look at all these other Republicans, Cox, Nesbitt, Leonard with far less name I.D.. And what we see is the weaker the Republican Mike Duggan picks up those voters, I suspect the same would be true on the Democratic side.

If Jocelyn Benson weakens for some reason, Mike Duggan picks up those voters, so does he.

Everything he does, does he have any red flags or are they all green?

Oh, no.

Mike Duggan has, I think, the hardest path of any of the candidates to win this race.

And I say that because he's walking a tight tightrope that's like a threat.

Mike Duggan has the most unique numbers I've seen of any politica candidate in 40 years, in that he has favorable views across the political aisle.

Republicans view him as favorably as Democrats, voters who strongly approve of Trump like him as much as voters who strongly disapprove of Trump.

That means he can't piss off anybody.

He can't afford to piss off anybody.

And more importantly, 24% of Duggan's voters say they vote straight party ticket.

He has to he has to educate them on how exactly they need to vote down the ballot, if they want their vote to count for him.

And what did you think when he invoked the name of Bill Milliken in this race?

Mike Dugga knows what he's doing right now.

Let's just say that.

Why do you just want to wait a minute.

Why did you laugh?

because, you know, he is working his way through Outstate, Michigan where, particularly in northwest Michigan, bill Milligan's name is revered.

And I think he, you know, shows his hand to some degree that he's really going to target certain portions of this state.

And Outstate, I think he's going to target West Michigan, where there are a lot of good government, old school conservatives when no conservative party exists anymore.

He's going to target northwest Michigan along the lakeshore, where there are more college educated and people very, fondly remembering Bill Milliken.

Is it fair to say right now, based on your survey, that Mike Duggan's presence in the race is more of a problem for th Democratic nominee for governor than the Republican?

Or is it, is it truly even Steven?

So let me give you hardcore numbers.

In this survey, 54 voters who lean Republican, chose Mike Duggan, 52 voters who lean Democratic chose Mike Duggan.

So that's a wash.

But in the head that we tested head to head Benson versus Duggan, Benson jumped to a two point lead.

So what we see you mean is Doug Ames right Benson yeah Benson jumps to a two point lead on James.

So what we see is that Duggan is hurting Benson more, but not because of Republicans or Democrats.

She's hurting.

He's hurting her more because of independence, his strength and independence is what's hurting her because those independents would lean to her otherwise.

Especially in this environment where Republicans appear in a midterm to have problems with independents.

And your point about straight party voters is really interesting, because it is a big ask, to to ask a voter to say, vote independent at the top of the ticket.

And I'm curious what you thin that means for things like AG.

Yes.

Those, these state Hous districts and competitive seats, you know, it we've talked about like, who's the winne and loser in an independent 30s.

We should go.

Mike Duggan is going.

His voter are the kingmakers of Michigan.

We see it in the US Senate.

Senate race, for example where Duggan voters are going.

Plus eight Rogers against Abdul El Sayed plus seven against McMorrow for Rogers.

But they go plus three for Haley Stevens over Rogers.

That's going to play in ever single swing race in this state.

And that's why I don't thin Democrats can afford to alienate Duggan voters.

Mr.

Czuba, always fun to have you on Off the Record.

Send me the bill.

Okay?

Thanks, Richard.

Awesome.

Our thanks for a great panel Everybody.

Have a safe weekend.

See you right here for more Off the Record next week.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in par by Bellwether Public Relations, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

Learn more at bellwetherpr.com.

For more Off the Record, visit wkar.org.

Michigan public television stations have contributed to the production costs of Off the Record.