- New data offers a glimpse of the immigration arrest rate in North Carolina over the past year.

And the state Democratic Party, is it punishing some legislative candidates who have supported veto overrides in the past?

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(upbeat music) ♪ - Welcome back to State Lines, I'm Kelly McCullen.

Joining me today, my good friend, Colin Campbell of WUNC News, fancy new title.

- Yeah, slight change, but same general idea.

- Yeah, Professor Chris Cooper of the Harris Institute of Public Policy at Western Carolina, the debuting rookie.

You're everywhere but State Lines.

- That's exactly, that's the way we've played it so far.

We're gonna have to break the tradition today though.

- Well, we're glad to have you here.

Donna King with the Carolina Journal is in Seat 3.

Donna, as always, happy new year.

- Happy new year, thanks for having me.

- Always great to have you.

Patrick Newton, you're on the end there, Forward Party.

Are you the chairman, the spokesman?

How do you define yourself on that nascent?

- Whatever you wanna call me, but technically, I am the state chair of the North Carolina Forward Party, so happy to be here as always.

- All right, good to have you here as well.

More importantly, as great as they are, it's even better to have you here because it's gonna be an icy weekend across most of North Carolina, but cold everywhere.

So thanks for joining us.

I do wanna start this week's show by looking at a report from a group called NC Newsline.

The news outfit there in Raleigh released data on immigration arrests that were made in North Carolina for parts of 2025.

It was journalist Jacob Biba's work, and he's reporting from his data analysis over 3,300 people were arrested, Donna, across North Carolina as of mid-October 2025.

That's between May and October.

ICE's arrest rate was somewhere around 17.4 per 100,000, with residents ranking 36 of the US states.

Most of these arrests came from local jails and prisons.

That November and December immigration enforcement action that made so much in headlines in Charlotte and Raleigh, not counted yet in this data.

Here's what stands out.

The narrative is they're kicking in doors and pulling people from the bed.

Newsline says a lot of these, at least from May to October, these ICE arrests came from detainers being recognized.

- That's exactly right, and I think that this really is a really interesting data that they have.

It came from the Deportation Data Project.

It's a project of two professors at Berkeley and UCLA.

What they found in North Carolina, and again, this doesn't count Operation Charlotte's Web, what we saw happening later in October.

It's doubled the number of arrests that we saw in 2024.

Two-thirds of them, the majority, were in ICE detainers or already in jails, what they call lockup areas.

And we also have to remember that House Bill 318 was passed or became law on October 1st, which required sheriffs to participate.

So I think that accounts for a lot of the increase that we're seeing, but I think those numbers are gonna grow, and I'm curious to see what the next batch looks like.

- Patrick, do you think those sheriffs who were not inclined to work with Republican administrations, do you think they adhered to state law?

You believe the data was boosted by their agreement to follow what the state legislature wanted?

- Yeah, I think this report's interesting because I think it really does try to quell some of that fear and point out, as Donna said, that we're taking people that are currently detained and going through the process that's been agreed upon.

I am anxious to see some of the more updated reporting.

You said this does not include what happened in Charlotte or even here in Raleigh.

I spoke to a good friend of mine who's in the construction industry, and he told me that just on a few job sites he was involved in during the time in Raleigh, hundreds of laborers not showing up on job sites.

As we know, we had lots of children not attending school out of fear.

So I think this does point out some of the things that we are all in alignment with, but I think there's still some other questions that need to follow.

- Does data mean anything in this case, Colin?

Because politics are emotional on this issue.

Because construction sites were empty, but people say that was a job an American could have, or a citizen could have worked in.

- Yeah, I think the data here, the big piece that it's missing is the background of these people.

I mean, how many of them had criminal records?

What was the nature of the criminal record?

Was it a violent offense, a drug offense, sorry, a traffic offense?

That sort of thing.

We still don't know those things.

And again, we don't have the data from October forward, which includes the Border Patrol action in Charlotte and the Triangle.

That was a differently different style that we saw from what ICE has traditionally done, which is to look at who's in a jail, who's already had an interaction with the police or law enforcement, and do they have a record, do they have immigration status that justifies putting them into the immigration system for deportation versus basically just going out on the streets and looking for people who look a certain way and then finding out later what their status is and what to do with them next.

And we still don't know details about that or of those people that were pulled in in November and December, what was their criminal background, if any.

- Compare this voter sentiment, I don't know if you've polled it or studied it, but the sentiment of what happened in North Carolina with immigration enforcement in the fall versus Minneapolis or just Minnesota in general right now.

- Yeah, I think night and day, right?

And what we're seeing in Minneapolis.

But I think in this kind of nationalized environment we live in, that's what matters, right?

There's not too many folks who are gonna sit down, read these data, sort of get their second thought at it and say, "Hey, maybe this isn't what I thought."

What they're seeing is what's happening in Minneapolis and in Minnesota.

What happens in Minneapolis may not be the same as happening in North Carolina, but that's how it's gonna be perceived, that's how it's gonna matter come election time.

- What do you expect out of the campaigns?

Because the immigration enforcement issue was popular, it helped elect Donald Trump.

He promised the biggest deportations in American history were on our way.

So did North Carolina vote for it?

Did Minneapolis vote for it?

And are voters really turning on the policy?

- I think voters are turning on what they're seeing on TV, right?

I think there is a general, people have two ideas in their head at the same time.

One, we need to do something about the border, we need to do something about immigration.

And at the same time, what we've been seeing in Minneapolis has gone too far.

And so I think it's gonna be interesting to watch these politicians do what they're not the best at, which is get across some nuance to voters and hope it connects.

- Donna, here's a question.

This is a total vibe check with all of us, with 3,300 arrests between May and October, if you're hardline immigration enforcement, is that a lot of people?

But if you're one of the relaxed immigration policy, is it comforting to have only 3,300?

You would think it would be five or six.

- Sure, I mean, I think the big comforting number that I got out of this particular report is that 400 of those arrests were on the Department of Homeland Security's worst of the worst list.

And I think that that's the point that a lot of folks are gonna take away from this.

- Is discretion the political heat point here with this debate?

Is it who you go after if you're an undocumented immigrant versus the worst of the worst, which would be easy.

- Sure, I think the big key for most people is public safety, ensuring that the folks who are committing violent crimes are taken off the streets.

- Reporter Brian Anderson of the Assembly broke news this week that North Carolina's Democratic Party has been withholding voter database access to four Democratic legislative candidates.

In 2025, he reports the state's party's executive council apparently voted in closed session to cut access to Democratic State House representatives and incumbents, Carla Cunningham, Shelly Willingham, Nasif Majeed, as well as former House Representative Michael Wray, who's seeking to return to the State House in 2026.

State Democratic Party Chairperson Anderson Clayton is quoted as saying, "Some Democrats did lose access "for voting to override previous gubernatorial vetoes."

Colin, I read Brian's article, and yes, they did have supported veto overrides, but so did other senators and Democratic representatives, and they haven't lost access to database.

- Yeah, they seem to have singled out these folks for being most likely, I think, of the Democrats in the House to vote with Republicans on a veto override, things like immigration and other things that have come up this past session.

It's an interesting approach.

I don't think we've seen this level of retribution from the state party before.

It's kind of a minor thing.

It's not, hey, we're gonna go out and endorse your opponent.

It's you can't get access to this database that essentially helps you run your campaign, but I saw a spokesperson for Michael Wray's campaign at least responding basically saying, "Well, we don't need your help.

"We're gonna be fine either way," and in some of these campaigns, it may help a candidate like Wray who's basically saying, "I'm not gonna be beholden to what the party "in Raleigh wants me to do," to be able to point to this with his supporters and say, "Look, they're trying to come after me "because I voted my conscience two years ago "and you should support me because I'm my own man," which has been the argument we've heard from his campaign.

- Chris, are there different styles of Democrats remaining in this state because urban Democrats punishing rural Democrats for occasionally going over to the Republican side, is that fair in governments?

- You know, I think it's fair.

Parties can do what they wanna do, right?

Parties are neither fish nor fowl.

They're not a government organization nor are they completely a private organization either.

They are of government.

They try to organize government, but they're also their own thing.

So they can get away with this.

What I'm really interested to see is sort of two things.

One, let's say some of these folks win their primaries.

Are they gonna get access to those data in the general election, right?

It's one thing for the party to say, "Hey, in this primary, we have a favorite candidate."

It's another to say, "Come the general election, "we're gonna go ahead and cede this one "to the Republican Party or not give y'all help there."

- Donna, but if you wanna call it gerrymandering, do you need database access to voter identifications and addresses if you're in a district drawn safely to your party?

- Well, I think in some of these cases, we have folks like Carla Cunningham who's in Mecklenburg County, and she voted to override Governor Stein's veto of the ICE bill.

That's a perfect example of an urban Democrat that isn't going to be able to get access to the information for her district.

Now, these organizations, the party can do what they wanna do, but if she wins that primary, they are gonna be really have to test it.

And then she has to say, "Am I being allowed by my party to represent my district?

"I've won before, I've gotten the votes before, "I've been a representative, "I have to vote my conscience in my community.

"Is the state party allowing me to do that?"

- Patrick, who says that those representatives by crossing the aisle and voted with Republicans on veto overrides, who says those folks aren't representing their electorate?

- Well, I think that's really the question here.

I think this brings up, as we just spoke about, how much power do these parties have in the political process?

And specifically, putting their thumb on the scale of who can have a little more or less of an advantage.

In the last six months or so, I've been approached by a lot of different people saying, "Hey, I wanna run as an independent," for example.

And they've all learned that that's not really as easy as a path as you might think.

If I wanna run as a Democrat or Republican, I go to the Board of Elections, I write a check, I'm on the ballot.

And people often say they wanna see more independence on the ballot, but they don't realize that that could normally require thousands of signatures within their community.

So I guess the good news is as state chair, everyone's absolutely right.

Parties can do whatever they want.

But I think that that power can be something we should all keep an eye on.

- Is the governor involved in endorsing any of the candidates that are opponents to these Democrats?

- So he has, out of these four candidates that the Democratic Party singled out, he's endorsed the opponents to two of them.

He's endorsing Rodney Pierce, who's the incumbent who defeated Michael Wray last time around.

Those two have a rematch, and the governor's now weighing in on that one.

The governor has also endorsed an opponent to Carla Cunningham in Charlotte.

We'll see if he does any more endorsements.

I think he hasn't ruled out that he may get involved in other primaries, but certainly he's putting his thumb on the scale as well.

- Chris, does this link Anderson Clayton, the party chair with Josh Stein, two people with two very different styles of communication, both online and in person?

- Yeah, you could not sort of create two more different people that have pretty similar ideologies at the same time.

So I do think that it's going to, in some ways, sort of link them together.

And look, we've seen this kind of thing before.

We saw Roy Cooper, when he was governor, come after some folks who were taking votes he didn't appreciate.

In some ways, this is just sort of the next step of that same process.

- I thought I saw Donald Trump do that in the U.S.

Senate race, even before we had a senator who chose to retire, Donna, so new normal coming on.

- It could be, it could be.

In this particular case, though, one thing to think about is that they're within the 90 day window, they couldn't really change parties, they're trapped.

If they can't get access to that information, they don't have a lot of flexibility.

- Our next topic's about data centers, where Governor Josh Stein's raising the issue and some worry that the rise of these in-state data center facilities will give a big rise to your residential electricity bill.

The governor's official statement is he wants to see data centers pay their, quote, "fair share" for power consumption.

A bipartisan group of governors agree with him.

There is concern, Patrick, that residential customers will see the rates increase pre-construction, power plants then get built, data centers come in, consume all the power.

Overly simplified as a law, but state law, I think, does allow, I guess, early investment in new power plants.

Now here come data centers and they drink a lot of water and they eat a lot of juice.

- Yes, they do.

Personally, I got a bit of a love-hate relationship with data, but yeah, this is a really important issue and I'm glad that the governor is trying to get ahead of it and look at it from a couple different angles, but I mentioned to you before we came on the air, I saw a podcast with Congressman Pat Harrigan speaking more about energy as a whole, and I really like the approach that he was bringing to the table.

Let's kind of level set and look at the facts before we get into who's gonna do what and who's responsible and who's gonna bear the weight.

His point was let's look at the energy consumption in this country 50 years ago compared to 25 years ago compared to today, and with things like data centers, it's clear we're hockey-sticking, as they say.

We're gonna be consuming a lot more energy, not just in North Carolina, but across the country, and how we manage that, Josh Peters from our team just had an article published in the Carolina Journal on this very topic, and I would encourage people to take a look at it, but he pointed out in Virginia, for example, 25% of their energy is being consumed by data centers.

I mean, that's a pretty alarming number, so I think there's gonna be a lot of costs to go around, and whether or not the residents and taxpayers take that hit or if the people that are truly coming here to invest in our communities can be held accountable and make some investment in that as well, I think could be part of the solution.

- Is it an investment, Colin, if data centers don't hire lots of people, hire good construction jobs?

Some towns have built new infrastructure based off the new tax revenue.

We're just digging into the topic as part of a possible State Lines Deeper Dive special.

I love data, and if we weren't using AI and data, we wouldn't need data centers, so are we doing it to ourselves as residents?

- I mean, so in certain, yeah, the demand is there.

Now, what the demand for AI looks like years down the road, there's still a lot of unknowns in that, and that's something that we'll be watching to see how it plays out on the global scale, but certainly locally, that pressure to build more power infrastructure is gonna be there the more that we rely on AI and the sort of very complicated computations these computers are making to run this type of technology, and again, as you mentioned, there's the upside to it is increased property taxes, and that's why you see a lot of counties looking forward to it and we had the big controversy up in Stokes County in the triad just in the last couple weeks where neighbors didn't want the data center there, the county voted for it in part because it was gonna be a huge boon to their county budget, but like you say, no jobs, and there's potential environmental impacts, and then there's the impacts on what your power bill looks like to build the facilities to keep these data centers running.

- What is the fair trade, Chris Cooper?

- That's the question.

- Well, you study the polls, you know the syllabus.

(laughing) - Let's answer this and we'll move right on.

I mean, this is the first entry in some ways into what I think is gonna be a much longer battle, right?

I was in Texas visiting some in-laws during the break, and guess what we saw?

Fights over the very, very same things, whether it's about the environment, whether it's about jobs and what they bring, or just our need or our perceived need to generate all this AI content on the fly.

This is the first one of many.

- Donna, I can't see how this could be a surprise.

The Jetsons were out in the 1960s.

We were gonna have flying cars when I was a 50-year-old man.

We're just not as far along as we thought we'd be as kids, so I'm not buying this, we didn't see it coming from a policy standpoint.

It's been dreamed about since Star Trek.

- Absolutely, absolutely.

This has been coming for quite a while.

The John Locke Foundation did a big paper on energy and what we need to be looking toward for the future, and of course, the rise of AI.

We're not gonna be able to control the demand.

The only thing we can really do is meet it.

And one of the things we need to be focused on is most efficient, least cost ways of generating energy, and I'm glad you mentioned the drinking water thing.

I've been seeing a lot about that.

Most of the cooling in data centers is the same water recycled.

We're not using new, it's going across a plate.

It's cooling and then it's going back in.

So it's something we see a lot on social media.

It's draining all the water.

It's using the same recycled water when they cool these plants.

So there's some misinformation, misunderstanding about how this process works.

- But it's not just social media misinformation.

This is part of the local political discourse.

People are debating it's gonna take, some places, 500,000 gallons of water.

- Right, and it's sometimes the same gallons of water.

The key is that I really think is a good thing is that everybody is talking about our energy policy, and that used to not happen away from areas like this.

- So we may not go dry, Patrick.

Now we gotta worry about a multi-hundred dollar power bill.

Solve that for us, we'll move on.

- I think part of the issue too, though, is that this gets dumped on a lot of our local municipalities to make some of these really, really big decisions that are gonna impact the state.

So I think we need to look at a better process, 'cause I certainly wouldn't wanna be serving in a local town council deciding if some multi-million dollar data center's gonna come in.

So, and the way that's structured, they end up operating a little more almost as a judicial arm than a local government.

So we need to look at the process.

- Let's shift towards some intellectual popcorn, if you will.

I like polls.

We have a guy on the panel here that likes a poll or two.

Early polls at the Cooper-Watley U.S.

Senate race here in North Carolina.

Universally, the ones I've seen show former Governor Roy Cooper with an early lead of some degree.

But what about this new polling that's come out recently?

Wide discrepancies in the size of the Cooper League.

The League of American Workers poll shows Cooper leading Mr.

Watley 48-24 with a 27% undecided rate of voters sampled.

Donald Trump's job performance in that same poll's 39%.

Carolina Forward came out with a poll showing Cooper leading 47-42%.

Looking into the GOP, well, Watley appears to have a huge lead in the Republican primary, but still 54% of Republican voters told pollsters they're undecided about their GOP candidate.

So, one poll that League of Workers, I read, was more conservative leaning.

Carolina Forward's not, they're progressive.

- I think that's fair to say.

- I would expect Carolina Forward to have that 24-point lead for Roy Cooper, not the one you would think would be more pro-Watley.

- And I think that tells you all you need to know about this poll.

The one outlier poll should be treated what it is, is an outlier.

If you look in the fine print, instead of likely voters like Carolina Forward uses, like the Carolina Journal tends to use in their poll, they're using registered voters.

So, they're getting a lot of opinion for people who aren't gonna show up and vote.

I think that explains why you're seeing that just massive number of folks you don't know, and it explains why you're seeing this result that doesn't fit any others.

We're actually in a world where Carolina Journal poll, Carolina Forward poll, I think we can say different ideological perspectives, tend to agree, right?

They're actually remarkably similar across those two.

That's where I'm putting my attention, not on this outlier.

- Sure, sure.

Yeah, and I completely agree.

There's a couple of things.

One, they're using registered voters, which is a very different pool of folks.

They're also using online, like text, you know, push to a website, that you get a different kind of person in that.

The biggest takeaway, though, I think, beyond the methodology, is that we have a candidate who's been in a statewide public office for 25 years, and Michael Watley, who has not.

And the fact that there's this many people undecided, I think really shows how tight this race is gonna be.

- For registered voters, registered voters can vote.

Why not take Chris or Donna, why not take their opinion seriously?

Or is it so broad that this is mainly an ID check for do you know who your candidates are in the major parties at the front runners?

- I think that's exactly right.

And look, we know that every cycle, they say, "We're gonna move the needle "on who actually shows up to vote."

It never happens, right?

We tend to see the same kinds of people show up and vote.

All these polls at this point are really based on weighting and who we think will show.

That's what's explaining the differences much more than anything else.

- Oh, Patrick, 27% undecided after a billion dollars on the table.

As a guy with the Forward party, wanting people to sign up, looking for ballot access, what do you see?

Any hope there?

- Well, I think the name recognition and the engagement.

I mean, Cooper, obviously, every kitchen table in North Carolina is familiar with him.

So I do think the next few months are really gonna see some of those undecideds change.

The one thing that concerns me about this race, as most races do, is the amount of money that you alluded to.

I've seen estimates as three quarters of a billion dollars.

And the alarming thing to me is over, or close to 90% of that money will come from out of state.

So that's an issue.

I think just campaign finance is something a lot of us talk about.

But I think this is a perfect example that we can use nationally to say, hey, is this really how we should be running our elections?

- Colin, I must admit that all that money coming in he's talking about may be a bad thing.

It pays for a lot of ads on the six o'clock news.

And you know what?

You and I can't get any part of that based on-- - We hope for-- - Public media, we do not do that kind of thing.

But yeah, I mean, that's where, another reason you put a grain of salt in any polls you see this far out.

The big attack ads, the big spending has yet to hit.

That's not gonna hit till we get closer to November, probably towards the summer, into the fall.

And that's where you're gonna see attack ads from Republicans trying to sort of take Roy Cooper down a few pegs in terms of his popularity from his time as governor.

And also at the same time, trying to define Michael Watley, who's still relatively unknown.

Democrats are gonna try to define him as this pro-Trump DC insider.

He's gonna try to define himself as something else and really present himself to the public.

And that has not happened yet.

So it's understandable that maybe at this point, Roy Cooper has a slight edge, but it's gonna be close and it's not gonna get decided for a good long time.

- Final topic, North Carolina Senate race to represent Rockingham and part of Guilford County.

It's inherently a local race for state Senate.

It should probably have your attention in that primary.

Longtime Senate president pro-Tim Phil Bergers defending his seat against Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page.

Both of these gentlemen have been in their respective roles a long time.

Republican consultant Marc Rotterman's partnered with National Research to show Mr.

Page with a five point lead over Senator Berger.

Berger's carrying Donald Trump's endorsement in that race.

Presidential endorsement in a local race.

But President Trump's never attacked Sheriff Page.

Poll carries a 6.2 margin of error.

Colin, it's something to talk about.

- Yeah, and I think this is one where we've seen a couple polls in this race and it goes different directions, but I think the key takeaway is this is close.

This is something where someone who's been in power as long as Phil Berger has and has represented his corner of the state as long as he has, you'd think he'd have a bigger lead.

The fact that Sam Page is definitely within at least, you know, a spitting distance of potentially unseating one of the most powerful, if not the most powerful politician in the state is fascinating.

And I think what's particularly interesting about these polls is it's got Rockingham more in support of Page than Guilford County.

- I got about 90 seconds.

Chris, a five point lead and a six point margin of error.

Sam Page is either down one or up 11.

Is that right?

Or somewhere in between?

- Yes.

It's a tie ball game, essentially at this point.

But look, I hate to be the negative Nelly on polls, but I'm gonna be here.

We're talking about a primary in a state senate race.

Trying to predict turnout in this.

And then the way people are kind of cutting across these data saying, hey, here's what Guilford says, here's what Rockingham says.

We're talking about like 50 people sometimes.

- Oh wow, Donna, your take on this.

- It's gonna be hard for Sam Page to compete with the level of fundraising that Phil Berger can do.

And that Guilford County is such a big chunk of this running, trying to support a Rockingham County sheriff.

- What does it say if Republican voters decide they want a change or if they decide to stick with Senator Berger?

Sheriffs tend to be more well known locally than a state senator, no matter how effective that senator is.

- Sure, well most of that district isn't Rockingham County.

But the other thing, what it really does say is that some of them may think that they are, that he would then be the Senate leader.

It's not the case, so he would be a freshman.

- Final word to you, Pat, if you even wanna weigh in as a third party on another party's primary, but be quick about it.

- If the president can weigh in, I figure I probably should.

I'm curious to see the impact that that'll have.

And will we hear anything from Trump about Page and just general in this cycle, how much of an impact will Trump's endorsements have?

- Well, and you're seeing state, at least some state legislative action getting wider spread coverage.

It's something that's relatively new to me in my 20 year career covering state politics.

So I think it's good to see, not I don't care about the polls and all that, but people are paying attention at the local level and all politics local, right?

- That's right, sir.

- I thought I remembered that.

- Somebody said that once.

- Hey, thank you guys so much for being on this week.

Very helpful, stay safe, stay warm.

Good job, rookie.

- I appreciate it, I've been taking my reps.

- Professor was right there.

Hey, thank you most of all for watching.

Email your thoughts to me, statelines@pbsnc.org.

I'm Kelly McCullen, I'll see you next time.

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