>> JARROD, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANK YOU, WALTER.

>> WE'RE IN A REALLY WEIRD PERIOD IN THIS COUNTRY WITH TRUMP, THE MUELLER REPORT, ALL THESE THINGS HAPPENING T YOU HAVE A NEW BOOK OUT CALLED THE ACCIDENTAL PRESIDENT.

HAVE WE SEEN THINGS LIKE THIS BEFORE?

THE FIRST THING THEY SAY IS IT A CURRENT EVENTS BOOK?

NO, IT'S ABOUT THE EIGHT TIMES IN HISTORY THAT A U.S. PRESIDENT DIED IN OSTS AND HOW THE ABRUPT TRANSFER POWER CHANGES HISTORY.

AND THE HONEST TRUTH IS AS AMERICANS, WE HAVE MUCH MORE EXPERIENCE IN HISTORY WITH NAVIGATING WHAT SEEMED AT THE TIME CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS, NAVIGATING WHAT SEEMED AT THE TIME A LOT OF CONFUSION, POLARIZATION, QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO THE PRESIDENT AND DWOENT REFLECT ENOUGH ON THOSE EIGHT EXPERIENCE ANDS LEARN FROM THEM.

>> HOW DID THIS BOOK COME ABOUT?

>> MY PARENTS BOUGHT ME THE BUCK STOPS HERE.

A RHYMING HISTORY BOOKS FOR KIDS.

IT WAS A CUTE LESSON FOR ME.

MAYBE I WOULD MEMORIZE THE PRESIDENTS.

I ZEROED IN ON DEATH AND ASSASSINATION.

MY POOR PARENTS HAD TO HAVE EIGHT CONVERSATIONS ABOUT MOM, DAD, WHAT IS DEATH?

WHAT DOES IT MEAN WHEN SOMEONE IS ASSASSINATED?

WHAT HAPPENS TO THEM?

THAT WENT INTO ANNING IT COLLECTING MEM BEAL YACHLT I ALWAYS SAID TO MYSELF, AT SOME POINT I'M GOING TO WRITE A BOOK ABOUT.

THIS EACH OF THE STORIES OF THE ACCIDENTAL PRESIDENTS ARE TOLD IN DIFFERENT PLACES BUT WHAT I REALLY WANTED TO DO IS PUT THEM TOGETHER.

I THINK THE STORY IS ONE OF THE GREAT CASE STUDIES TO SHOW US THAT TCONSTITUTION IS A LIVING DOCUMENT.

THERE IS A RANDOMNESS TO ALLOW THINGS TO BE LEFT TO CHANCE.

ANDREW JOHNSONS WITH A COMPLETE CATASTROPHE.

BY AND LARGE, WE ENDED UP NAVIGATING THIS PRETTY WELL.

DESPITE THE CONSTITUTION BEING VAGUE ABOUT WHAT WE DO WITH A VACANCY.

>> TELL ME HOW IN TALKS ABOUT THE LIVING DOCUMENT OF THE CONSTITUTION.

HOW GET TO A PLACE THAT WE DON'T KNOW THAT JOHN TYLER IS OFFICIALLY THE PRESIDENT TO TODAY.

IT SHOWS HOW WE CAN ADAPT THE CONSTITUTION.

>> IT SHOWS YOU HOW LONG IT TAKES TO GET THE POINT.

IT TOOK THREE PRESIDENTIAL ASSASSINATIONS FOR THE U.S. GOVERNMENT TO KIND OF GET THE POINT.

THEY SHOULD HAVE A MANDATE TO FIGHT THE PRESIDENCY AND NOT JUST COUNTERFEITERS.

IT TOOK EIGHT PRESIDENTS DYING IN OFFICE, FOUR ASSASSINATED FOR US TO REALIZE WE SHOULD PROBABLY HAVE A PROVISION FOR FORMALIZING THE TYLER PRECEDENT, MAKING IT CLEAR LEGALLY THAT THE VICE PRESIDENT ASSUMES THE PRESIDENCY AND BECOMES THE PRESIDENCY.

SO IT'S NOT UNTIL THE 25th AMENDMENT THAT GIVES RICHARD NIXON THE ABILITY TO PLUCK GERALD FORD OUT OF MICHIGAN'S FIFTH AND MAKE HIM VICE PRESIDENT.

EVERY ONE OF THESE ACCIDENTAL PRESIDENTS LEAVES THE VICE PRESIDENT VACANT.

THAT IS INTERESTING BECAUSE JOHN TYLER NEARLY DIES AS PRESIDENT IN AN EXPLOSION THAT KILLS A NUMBER OF MEMBERS OF THE CABINET.

SICKNESS.

TEDDY ROOSEVELT WAS WAS FLUNG FROM A CARRIAGE A YEAR AFTER HE ASSUMED THE PRESIDENCY AND NEARLY DIED.

HIS BODYGUARD WAS KILLED.

THE DRIVER IN THE CARRIAGE WAS KILLED.

HARRY TRUMAN WAS UP AGAINST AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT BY A PUERTO RICAN REBELS AND SO FORTH.

THEY HAVE A WHOLE AGENDA THAT YOU DIDN'T EXPECT, IS TEDDY REZ VOLT THE ANTITRUST MOVEMENT AND THINK HOW DID THAT COME ABOUT?

>> HE HAD A COMPLETE PIVOT FROM THE ADMINISTRATION OF BIG BUSINESS.

BUT IT WAS VERY PREDICTABLE.

EVERYBODY UNDERSTOOD WHO TEDDY ROOSEVELT WAS.

HE ENDS UP ON THE TICKET IN 1900 BECAUSE THE VICE PRESIDENT DIES IN OFFICE.

AND THE PARTY BOSSES IN NEW YORK ARE SO TIRED OF TEDDY ROOSEVELT THAT THEY WANT TO EXILE HIM TO THE POLITICAL EQUIVALENT OF ELBA.

AND TEDDY HAS HIS OWN PROBLEMS BACK HOME WHERE IT'S NOT GUARANTEED THAT HE'S GOING TO WIN REELECTION AS GOVERNOR OF NEW YORK.

SO HE FIGURES I'M YOUNG ENOUGH.

I ASPIRE TO BIGGER THINGS.

I'LL BIDE MY TIME HERE AND I'M TEDDY ROOSEVELT.

NO ONE IS GOING TO MAKE ME IRRELEVANT.

AND, YOU KNOW, OTHER THAN ONE OF McKINLEY'S CLOSEST ADVISORS, A GUY NAMED MARK HANNAH, NOBODY REALLY THOUGHT ABOUT.

THIS HANNAH USED TO RUN AROUND SAYING DON'T YOU ALL UNDERSTAND HOW CRAZY IT IS TO PUT THIS MAN JUST ONE HEARTBEAT FROM THE PRESIDENCY?

AND THAT'S THE FIRST TIME THAT HEARTBEAT CONCEPT FIRST GETS USED.

TO ME THE ONE THAT IS MOST EXTRAORDINARY IS HARRY TRUMAN.

BECAUSE TRUMAN, YOU KNOW, AS VICE PRESIDENT, HE MEETS WITH ROOSEVELT TWICE.

HE ISN'T READ INTO ALTA.

HE IS NOT BRIEFED ON THE MANHATTAN PROJECT.

HE'S NO THE FOLLOWING THE HAPPENINGS OF WORLD WAR II.

HE IS BASICALLY OUT SOCIALIZING.

IN FACT, YOU KNOW, JUST SIX DAYS BEFORE ROOSEVELT DIES, SOMEBODY WRITES HIM A LETTER ADVOCATING A POLICY.

HE SAYS I'M JUST A POLITICAL UNIC.

SO AS LATE AS, YOU KNOW, SIX DAYS BEFORE HE GOES TO THE PRESIDENCY, HE IS VIEWING HIMSELF AS KIND OF AN IRRELEVANT SIDEKICK AND THINKS OF HIMSELF AS KIND OF AN AWE SHUCKS POLITICIAN FROM MISSOURI.

AND YOU LOOK AT WHAT THAT MAN INHERITED.

AND ON PAPER HE SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL.

NOW I BELIEVE TRUMAN WAS SUCCESSFUL BECAUSE HE WAS LIKE MINDED WITH GEORGE MARSHAL AND LIKE MINDED WITH EUROPEANNESS AND THEY ALL WANTED THE SAME THING.

THE SUCCESS OF THE WORLD RESTED ON HELPING TRUMAN BE SUCCESSFUL.

BUT WHAT HE INHERITED AND THE DECISIONS HE HAD TO MAKE IN THE FIRST FOUR TO NINE MONTHS WAS UNLIKE ANYTHING THAT WE'VE SEEN IN HISTORY.

>> BUT DO YOU THINK THAT COLD WAR COULD HAVE TAKEN A DIFFERENT COURSE IF TRUMAN HADN'T TAKEN THE TOUGH STAND THAT FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT MIGHT NOT HAVE TAKEN?

>> THE BIG QUESTION THAT I RAISE IN THE FDR AND TRUMAN CHAPTERS IS AROUND, YOU KNOW, HOW THEY INTERACTED WITH JOSEF STALIN AND FDR, THERE IS VARYING THEORIES ON.

THIS BUT FDR CERTAINLY WAS PREDISPOSED TO WANT TO BELIEVE HE COULD WORK WITH STALIN.

THERE IS EXAMPLES WHERE HE QUESTIONED THAT PARTICULARLY, YOU KNOW, TOWARDS THE END AND END OF HIS LIFE.

HE BELIEVED HE KNEW STALIN.

HE COULD WORK WITH STALIN.

HE STOPPED GETTING ADVICE FROM THE ADVISORS.

YOU COULD ARGUE HE WAS TOO CLOSE IT TO.

I THINK SOME OF THIS HAD TO DO WITH THE FACT THAT I DON'T THINK ROOSEVELT WAS IN DENIAL ABOUT HIS HEALTH.

ROOSEVELT KNEW HE WAS DYING BUT HE WANTED TO BEAT THE CLOCK, FINISH THE WAR, BECOME THE NEXT SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE UN AND FINISH THE JOB WHILE HE WAS STILL ON EARTH.

WHAT IMPRESS ES ME ABOUT TRUMAN IS THE FACT THAT UNLIKE LBJ WHO BUYS INTO THE ARGUMENT THAT HO CHI MINH IS SOMEBODY WE CAN GET A BETTER COMPROMISE WITH BY OVEREAGERLY NEGOTIATING AND SO FORTH, TRUMAN DOESN'T BUY ANY OF THAT WITH STALIN ON DAY ONE.

HE HAS NO INSTITUTIONAL KNOWLEDGE WHICH WOULD LEAD HIM TO THIS CONCLUSION.

IT'S PURE INSTIRVEGT.

HE'S GETTING ALL ADVICE FROM PEOPLE PUSHING A ROOSEVELT AGENDA.

AND, YOU KNOW, FOR SOMEBODY WHO IS FOLLOWING THE GREAT FDR AND BE ABLE TO ASSERT THEMSELVES SO EARLY ON WITHOUT NEGLECTING THE LEGACY OF FDR DURING SUCH AN IMPORTANT MOMENT IN HISTORY IS NOTHING SHORT OF EXTRAORDINARY.

>> IS THERE A COMMON SET OF MISTAKES THAT THESE ACCIDENTAL PRESIDENTS HAVE MADE?

TO ME THE COMMON THREAD ACROSS THE ACCIDENTAL PRESIDENTS IS IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THE PEOPLE THEY SURROUND THEMSELVES WITH.

YOU GET PRESIDENTS WHO FIRE EVERYBODY ON DAY ONE.

ASO IF HE FIRES EVERYBODY AT THE CABINET IN THE MOST POLARIZED MOMENT IN AMERICAN HISTORY.

THE MOMENT WHERE THEY'RE FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH ALL THE LAND AND SEE WITH THE UNITED STATES.

AND THEY SHOULD HAVE FIRED SOME PORTION OF THE CABINET AND HE GOT KICKED OUT OF HIS OWN PARTY.

YOU GET PEOPLE LIKE LBJ WHO IS VERY SENSIBLE WITH THE DOMESTIC SIDE OF THE CABINET.

HE COULDN'T BRING HIMSELF TO QUESTION THE HARVARD, AS HE CALLED THEM, THE INTERLEKT YOU'LL FOREIGN POLICY ELITE AND THEY LED HIM DOWN A VERY DIFFERENT PATH.

>> IN VIETNAM.

>> SO THE PRESIDENTS WHO ITERATE ON THE PRESIDECESSORS CABINET TD TO BE THE ONES THAT FAIR THE BEST.

>> SO WHAT ARE THE LESSONS AND THE ACCIDENTAL PRESIDENTS THAT HELP US SAY WE WERE IN REALLY TURBULENT TIMES AND WE'LL BE IN TURBULENT TIMES AGAIN.

WHAT LESSONS DO WE HAVE FOR NOW WE NAVIGATE OUT?

>> I MEAN IN TERMSst LESSON FROM THE BOOK, STARTING POINT WOULD BE WE SHOULD GIVE MORE THOUGHT TO HOW WE CHOOSE THE VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.

WHEN LYNDON JOHNSON DECIDED TO LEAVE THE MOST POWERFUL SEAT IN CONGRESS TO RUN WITH KENNEDY, THERE WAS A 20% CHANCE HE WOULD BECOME PRESIDENT.

IF YOU LOOK AT ALL THE CLOSE CALLS AND COMBINE THEM WITH THE PRESIDENTS THAT ACTUALLY DIED, TO DAY'S VICE PRESIDENTS HAVE A 42% CHANCE OF BECOMING PRESIDENT.

THOSE ARE HIGH STATISTICS.

YET, WE STILL CHOOSE VICE PRESIDENTS TO WIN A STATE, APPEASE A CONSTITUENCY.

NEITHER OF WHICH HAPPEN CONSISTENTLY.

AND WE DON'T THINK ABOUT THE PERSON WHO IS THE SORT OF -- THE UNDERSTUDY TO THE HIGHEST OFFICE IN THE LAND AS SOMEBODY THAT CAN ACTUALLY LEAD THIS COUNTRY.

SO THAT'S A STARTING POINT.

THE OTHER IS WE SHOULD ANTICIPATE GAPS IN OUR SYSTEM.

AND EXPERIMENT WITH SOLUTIONS ALONG THE WAY.

THE 25th AMENDMENT IS A CULMINATION OF SUCCESS LAWS WHERE FIRST IT WAS THE PRESIDENT PROTEM FOLLOWED BY THE SPEAKER AND THEN THE CABINET AND RESTORED THE PRESIDENT PRO TEM AND SPEAKER BUT THEY FLIPPED THE ORDER.

WE DON'T -- WE SHOULD RESIST THE URGE TO ANSWER EVERY SINGLE QUESTION IN THE MOMENT.

INSTEAD ALLOW OURSELVES TO TRY DIFFERENT THINGS.

HAD WE BASICALLY TRIED TO COMPREHENSIVELY SOLVE THE SUCCESSION PRICE IS IN THE CONSTITUTION, I'M NOT SURE WE WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER OFF.

>> WHICH OF THE MOMENTS FROM YOUR STUDY OF HISTORY OF OUR COUNTRY IS MOST ANALOGOUS TO TODAY?

>> THERE ARE SO MANY PARALLELS THAT IT IS ASTONISHING.

SO WARREN HARDING WHEN HE WENT TO THE APRESIDENCY, HE IS THE UNEXPECTED CANDIDATE.

HIS ADMINISTRATION ENDS UP BEING THE MOST SCANDAL RIDDEN ADMINISTRATION IN HISTORY.

IT HAS ALL THE -- I MEAN IT HAS TEAPOT DOME, MURDERS, SUICIDES, YOU KNOW, TONS OF CORRUPTION, MANIPULATION, ET CETERA.

IT'S A VERY COLORFUL ADMINISTRATION.

THE HARDING WOMEN, A LOT OF AFFAIRS INCLUDING NAM BRITAIN WHO HE HAS A CHILD WITH IN A FIVE BY FIVE CLOSET OF THE OVAL OFFICE.

HARDING WHEN HE IS IN THE SENATE HAS A LOVE FAIR WITH A GERMAN SPY.

IT IS THE ANTI-IMMIGRANT CABINET.

PARTICULARLY RELATED TO CHINESE IMMIGRANTS.

YOU HAD A LOT OF CRONIES AND FRIENDS ON THE GOVERNMENT PAYROLL AND VERY HIGH POSITIONS AND AMBIGUOUS ADVISER POSITIONS.

THE DIFFERENCE IS HARDING DIES ENORMOUSLY POPULAR.

THE WHOLE IMAGE OF SILENT -- THIS IS THE SURPRISING THING.

THE IMAGE OF SILENT CAL IS A FABRICATION.

>> CALVIN COOLAIDGE WHO TAKES OVER.

HE IS SO BORING THAT NOBODY REMEMBERS HIM.

THERES A GREAT STORY WHEN THERE IS A FIRE AT THE WILLARD HOTEL WHILE HE IS VICE PRESIDENT, HE DOESN'T EVACUATE.

AND THE HOTEL MANAGER COMES UP TO HIM AND SAYS, EXCUSE ME, SIR, YOU HAVE TO EVACUATE.

HE SAID I'M THE VICE PRESIDENT.

HE SAYS OKAY, PROCEED.

THE MANAGER THEN TURNS AROUND TO HIM AND SAID WAIT, THE VICE PRESIDENT OF WHATHE?

SAID THE UNITED STATES.

HE SAID YOU HAVE TO EVACUATE.

I THOUGHT YOU WERE THE VICE PRESIDENT OF THE HOTEL.

BUT COOLIDGE, THE SCANDALS BREAK THREE MONTHS AFTER COOLIDGE ASENDS TO THE PRESIDENCY.

YOU'RE VERY CLOSE TO THE 1924 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

SO COOLIDGE CULT VATS THE IMAGE OF A MAN SO BORING THAT HE XRONT ANYTHING TO DO WITH THE SCANDALS T IN FACT HE ENGAGES IN MORE RADIO BROADCASTS THAN ANY PRESIDENT THAT CAME BEFORE HIM BUT JUST INTERPERSONALLY HE IS QUIET AND SHY.

AND SO IF YOU LOOK AT PARALLELS TO TODAY'S MOMENT, THERE IS SOMETHING KIND OF SILENT ABOUT OUR CURRENT NUMBER TWO.

>> MICHAEL PENCE.

>> YEAH.

>> WELL, IT MAY BE NICE TO GET TO A TIME WHEN WE HAVE SILENT AND BORING AND CALM LEADERS AGAIN.

JARROD, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.

>> THANK YOU, WALTER.

>> THANK YOU, WALTER.