- Hi, I'm Marc Rotterman, coming up on "Front Row" North Carolina's budget receives bipartisan support.

We'll get an update on Medicaid expansion, and does the GOP have Trump fatigue?

Next.

- [Announcer] Major funding for "Front Row" was provided by, Robert L. Luddy, additional funding provided by Patricia and Koo Yuen, through the Yuen Foundation, committed to bridging cultural differences in our communities.

And by.

Funding for the "Lightning Round" provided by, Boddie-Noell Foundation, NC Realtors, Mary Louise and John Burress, Rifenburg Construction, and Helen Laughery.

A complete list of funders can be found at pbsc.org/frontrow.

[dramatic music] ♪ - Welcome back.

Joining the conversation, Donna King, Editor in Chief of Carolina Journal, political analyst, Joe Stewart, Colin Campbell editor of the North Carolina Tribune, and Nelson Dollar, Senior Policy Advisor to North Carolina Speaker House.

Nelson, let's begin with the latest on the state budget.

- Oh yes, the House and the Senate passed budget this week by wide bipartisan majorities.

The highlights include, raises for state employees and teachers, additional bonus funding for state retirees, more funds for very critical, school safety initiatives that are underway.

Some historic investments in transportation, where we're now gonna be dedicating a share of the sales tax to our roads and bridges, additional over $800 million that's gonna be moving in to water and sewer projects, infrastructure projects, all across the state.

And a major commitment to high tech economic development.

Those funds for those projects that have been announced in recent months are in this budget.

They will generate literally thousands of high paying jobs in North Carolina.

And just as important, we've put behind a total now of $4.75 billion in the state's "Rainy Day Fund", and taken other funds that we had and put 'em into both inflationary adjustments to the previous budget, and reserves to next year.

We wanna make sure that we are very cautious with our funding, when you have inflation on the rise plus the prospect of recession.

And just to be sure, we also have income tax rates cuts in the budget, but those are from last year's budget.

- Okay, what struck you about this budget, Joe?

- Well, the most important thing is that the Republican leadership does deserve some credit for socking away so much of the money, we had an infusion of one time, funds as a result of the economic prosperity of the state, state revenue collections were well above what was projected.

But setting side that money, almost $8 billion total, for various reserves, including some money for inflationary pressures that might come about as a result of government programs or projects that have cost overrun, just as a result of inflation, of prices being higher.

So, I think the fact that this Republican legislature has been very prudent in setting aside money.

But we don't know what next year may hold, we may have an all-in recession that creates an enormous amount of difficulty in North Carolina.

Now we have some cash in the state's coffers to handle those situations.

- Colin?

- Yeah, so I think you're right about that.

And that was a surprise to me, was initially there was a lot of talk about additional tax cuts on top of the tax cuts that are already set to take effect, that seems to have fizzled, perhaps in light of some of the bad economic news we're seeing, and a desire to to save more, rather than put some additional tax cuts in effect that would then impact the budget a few years out.

- Donna, would this be a veto proof majority that will vote for this?

- I think so, and both chambers have already passed it, but I think one thing that's important to talk about in these savings, is there's some history here.

Back in 2000, 8, 9, 10, leading up to the last recession North Carolina Democratic Governor, Bev Perdue, and a Democrat controlled legislature really ran into some trouble.

We had a three and a half billion shortfall, we're talking about furloughs and cutting salaries for state employees.

It was devastating.

And I think that this legislature really took a look at that history, and tried to learn from those lessons, and prepared for what may inevitably be another recession, if we're not already there.

- Now, some final thoughts in about a minute.

- Well, I think it's very crucial what we're doing.

We're handling the most critical functions of government, getting our employees, teachers, additional pay, we're focusing on the state' infrastructure, focusing on the recruitment of high paying, high tech jobs.

So this is a budget that's structured to move North Carolina forward in a very responsible way.

- Any final thoughts my fried?

- Yeah of course, every time you give away free popsicles somebody's mad about the stick.

State employees wish that some of these resources could have been used for additional higher level pay, but I think at the end of the day, this is a prudent budget and it's good for North Carolina, overall.

- Okay, I wanna move on and talk about Medicaid expansion.

Talk to us about it, what's the deal?

What's the status?

- Yeah, so this has been a fascinating political change to see, for years we've heard the same talking points from Democrats and Governor Roy Cooper, in support of Medicaid expansion.

Then early this session we heard from Senate Leader Phil Berger, saying much of the same stuff, and pushing forward a Medicaid expansion proposal.

And then the last week or so, we've seen the House sort of come on board with a different version.

But even though we're seeing some unity on whether this is a good idea, among leadership, there's a big disagreement on exactly how to do it.

And I think the result is, we're not gonna be doing it anytime soon.

The Senate wants to add some other healthcare related, regulatory change provisions in there, and doesn't wanna do just a Medicaid expansion bill.

The House wants to do just a Medicaid expansion bill, but one that really wouldn't take effect until a final vote in December.

And there's no agreement there, no- - Donna, why change your heart by Republicans?

- Well, I think that- - They trying to take an issue off the table?

- No, well, I think that there's a different landscape, right now.

One of the things that a lot of them have mentioned is the Biden administration has put a sweetener in there, just sort of a...

They cover the startup costs, so to speak, an extra $1.2 billion to get it rolling.

But I think that what we're also seeing, is that if they don't do something about it now, some of these leaders say the Biden administration's just gonna take over and do it for us, without the work requirements, without a lot of the priorities that we wanna see.

I think one of the most notable things is that the senates plan would take effect immediately, and it would have some of that increased supply in healthcare.

It scales back some of the certificate need laws- - Blue Cross, Blue Shields been pushing pretty hard, too?

- Actually I think, well, Blue Cross, Blue Shield has, but I think the hospital associations have leaned more toward the house version, which doesn't include some of those regulatory controls being scaled back.

But one of the things that we heard from Democrats on the floor, is they said, "Are you setting this up for failure?

Are you making these requirements so difficult that they can't possibly be met by Secretary Kinsley?"

And [indistinct] gonna come back in December and you're gonna all go, "Well, nope, we're not gonna have a vote on it."

But speaker Moore has said, "Look, we're gonna have a vote "Look, we're gonna have a vote, up or down one way or another, in December."

On this and they've set these parameters and sent Secretary Kinsley out to go negotiate it with the federal government and bring them back a proposal.

- Nelson, talk to us about the speaker's priorities for Medicaid expansion.

- Well, what the speaker said, he's put into the bill guardrails, making sure that we pursue work requirements in there.

And what the speaker wants to do and what his caucus wants to do is to ensure that they know all the parameters of the plan, give the secretary the opportunity to go to Washington, to negotiate the best deal possible for North Carolina and then have the general assembly vote on that and know exactly what they are voting for, what they are getting.

So, the speaker wants to make sure we have the appropriate guardrails in place and make sure that the general assembly knows exactly what it is going to be enacting.

- Well, where does this stand between [indistinct] right now?

- Well, the negotiations as this taping is going on are ongoing, we will see where they go.

But I do think it's very significant that both chambers have now voted on plans that do include Medicaid expansion.

They include some other differing things and it's those other issues out there that are really probably at the core of the challenges - Joe, this is an expansion of an entitlement though, right?

- Yeah, absolutely.

600,000 more people will be brought onto the roles.

I mean, it's a pretty significant advancement in terms of this particular public policy.

I think it was 40% of North Carolinians would receive their healthcare through these federally managed and paid for programs.

There's always that peril that somehow you're creating a program that you can't ever undo.

At some point, we could say if the reimbursement rates from the federal government become too low, that we would cancel participation in the program.

That's very hard to do politically.

Particularly when you're talking about-- - But it happens, does it?

- Well, no.

- It's government program, never goes away, does it?

- We're trying to finally end that buggy whip regulation, but it's still problematic.

There may be a few buggy whips still out there.

- Final thoughts, Colin, about 30 seconds.

- I think you're gonna see a lobbying full court press on this in the next few months.

Just this morning Coach Roy Williams, formerly of UNC came out in favor of Medicaid expansion.

Likely some more action on this, but maybe not until January.

- Okay.

I wanna move on and talk about Donald Trump.

I think some donors, Joe are having Trump fatigue.

- Absolutely.

There's a great, Aesops fable about the frogs wanting a king and they beseech the gods and the gods are amused by this and throw a log into the pond.

And the frogs are scared at first, but then lose their fear and say, "No, we want a king that takes action."

So the gods send a stork and the stork starts to eat the frogs.

And so the moral of that is when you seek change of your condition make sure it's for the better.

- Is this Animal Planet or what?

[everyone laughing] - To some extent, yes, it is Animal Planet.

But I think in this instance, it's important to remember that in politics it's just true that causes and candidates have half lives.

And at some point, voters are just not as enthusiastic about somebody or something over time.

Donald Trump, as a former president, has still been very conspicuous.

The history in America is that former presidents go away and they don't raise a lot of fuss about this, that or the other thing.

But I think the fact that Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, is now emerging is a possible rival to Trump.

Gives people that are somewhat disaffected-- - He's tied with him in New Hampshire.

- The polling numbers are good.

DeSantis has a huge war chest for his gubernatorial reelection in Florida.

- Hundred and seven million right now.

- He wants to win the state by 5% so that he can outdo Trump's margin in 2020 in that race.

And so I think people can say, if they're a little unhappy or dissatisfied with Donald Trump, they have someone else now that they can align with.

And the money people are really concerned.

If the midterms go as badly for Democrats as we think they will, the call for Biden to announce whether or not he's running for reelection, pretty soon after this election, I think will be tremendous.

And at that point, Democrats are gonna wanna know whether or not they have a candidate that can run and win in 2024 if Biden doesn't seek reelection.

So Republicans will want a candidate they feel stand a good chance at winning the presidents if that dynamic comes to pass.

- Donna, is Trump too bombastic for suburban women?

- I think that there is a large swath of the Republican party who really like the policies.

They want that hard and fast rules - Taxes.

- on economics, low taxes, the China policy America first, all of those things.

Policies.

- Immigration.

- Immigration.

That not just Republican women and suburban women, but all Republicans.

I think your fatigue level with Trump depends on how close to the circus you sit.

So for example, a lot of folks really like him.

They like that he says what he means.

They like that he speaks off the cuff, that he seems relatable.

He seems like somebody they know.

And that is a group that will probably not really warm up to DeSantis unless they feel like their other choice is a Democrat.

- Colin, do you think the January 6th hearings have hurt Donald Trump?

- That's what I'm getting the sense for.

What I think a lot of people are watching is does the revelations that came out in the past week result in any sort of criminal charges?

'Cause I think that could be a game changer for whether Trump is a viable 2024 candidate or whether DeSantis ends up the sort of less criminally involved alternative for people who like that brand of politics, but maybe don't want all the baggage that comes with Trump.

- Do you think there'll be a contested primary in 2024 in the Republican primary for president, my friend?

- I do, but it depends on where Trump is positioned.

I do think that Trump is in the lead position.

DeSantis-- - Nationally he's in the lead position.

- Nationally he's in the lead right now, but he is taking a lot of hits.

He has a mixed record in his primary endorsements.

Some states he's been very successful, in other states not.

The January 6th commission is taking a bit of a toll.

And voters in general, the further you move away from 2020, the more their focus is gonna be on 22 this year and obviously 2024.

And I think voters are looking for maybe some newer candidates that share their values, but maybe don't have the baggage.

- That's a great point.

Do you think that both parties are looking for generational change, Joe?

- I think that's absolutely the case.

I think if we learned anything from the Donald Trump phenomena, is that voters sometimes want something dynamic and different in their choices for elective office.

Donald Trump just happened to fill that bill in 2016, but I think that's a new phenomena.

Maybe be another celebrity, maybe Dwayne Johnson, the Rock, maybe that's who we need, but I think that's gonna be what voters are looking for.

- Please.

Okay.

Donna, I wanna talk about the Supreme Court week.

It was a blockbuster week for the Supreme court.

- It was.

Sure, absolutely.

There's some really big rulings from the U.S. Supreme Court this week.

Among them was the ruling about the Environmental Protection Agency, the EPA, they say does not have the authority to rule broadly over that coal and gas industry and their authority under the Clean Air Act doesn't enable these bureaucratic system to create-- - They're essentially making law, correct?

- That's what they're saying.

That's what the justice has said.

That you have authority, but you have to run some of these regulatory policies like the Clean Air Act, all of those things that go through, you have to run it through Congress.

The system exists for a reason.

And the EPA was exhibiting broad over reach in its regulation of the industry.

Now this really is a devastating decision for things like the Green New Deal and Biden's green climate change based policy.

So they're saying Congress has a voice in this and the Supreme Court would agree with that.

Another big one is the Supreme Court's ruling in favor of the Biden administration against Trump's stay in Mexico policy.

That remain in Mexico policy comes the same week, I believe it's the same week, as 53 migrants died in a box truck.

So there really is, this is a big issue.

This is something that I think is probably going to play a much larger role in 2022, 2024, than a lot of what we're seeing in mainstream media.

People are really paying attention to this.

So how this policy works is not what, the Supreme Court said look, we can't set the policy, we can only rule on what's in front of us.

- But they were a minority anyway, weren't they?

- I think mostly, yes.

- The Biden administration?

- Yes, they were.

- And I think that the Supreme Court Justices said this is a policy issue, this isn't for us to tell you what the policy should be.

But they did rule on Biden's side on the remain in Mexico policy itself.

Then of course, there's a constitutional protection on praying on the football field for football coach, Joe Kennedy.

- It was voluntary.

And it was a silent prayer, right?

- It was a silent prayer.

He knelt on the 50 yard line of the football field at a school and he lost his job.

And what they're saying he wasn't forcing anyone to do it, he wasn't even speaking out loud.

This really is being seen as religious freedom advocates, as a real victory in the decision for religious freedom.

- Nelson, I want to talk to you about these rulings.

And by the way, did you see that the president was over seas and questioning the integrity of the Supreme Court?

- Yes, and you're not supposed to talk about domestic issues while you're over seas, you know.

The Europeans will criticize us enough.

- But you can question a ruling, but questioning the integrity, a lot of people think was out of bounds.

- I think it's out of bounds.

But it is certainly true that this is one of the most consequential court terms that we have seen in decades.

All the very wide range of issues that Donna talked about, and religious liberty among them.

The ruling, as you talked about last week, about religious schools not being discriminated against in funding.

If you're a public employee like a coach, you can express your religious beliefs.

And there was a third case there that if you fly everybody else's flag in Boston, that you can't discriminate against a Christian flag also being able to fly from those flag posts as well.

The court is clearly saying that you go hand in glove.

The religious freedoms, the government cannot establish an official religion, but neither can they keep religious people from expressing their beliefs in the public sphere.

- Joe, is Trump's lasting legacy a conservative Supreme Court?

- Absolutely, and we're gonna have this court for decades, undoubtedly, given the relative youth of some of the newer members that are serving.

I think there are some fundamental issues here.

One is, judicial temperament does have a tendency to mirror political ideology.

And people, I think sometimes misinterpret the court's opinions to be political, when it's actually just a representation of what the majority of the Justice's legal philosophies.

And I think in the instance of the case relative to the EPA, the interesting thing is here, having worked 10 years in a state government executive branch agency, I used to believe that it was possible for government to function despite the tension between the legislative and executive branch.

I now think it exists...

It works because of that tension, and so we need to resolve that issue.

- Colin, jump in here quickly.

- Yeah, the interesting thing to see from this will be, as we see more and more court rulings along party lines, does the perception of the court look more partisan?

Do people think this is just as partisan as Congress or anything else?

Or do they keep the sort of respect and, above the fray.

- Or do elections have consequences?

All right, let's go to the most under reported story of the week, Donna.

- Sure, sure.

Well, back to the High Court.

This week, the US Supreme Court said that they will take North Carolina's redistricting case.

And this really is an important case.

It really is going to establish whether the Elections Clause in the Constitution, which says that the legislate legislatures control the manner in which elections are held.

Time, date and you know, and place and manner.

That is what speaker Tim Moore, North Carolina's House Speaker is saying, is arguing.

Saying that the North Carolina Supreme Court stepping in, taking control of our Congressional maps was a violation of the Constitution.

So that case will be heard by the US Supreme Court.

There are several Justices who indicated last year- - When will that happen?

- In the Fall.

- [Marc] Okay, October.

- They should be coming back after their summer break.

And there are already some justices who say they really want to examine this particular case.

- Joe.

- Gen-Z's rising political influence.

The debate's raging on the Roe decision.

- [Marc] [indistinct] Gen-Z's.

- Well, it's interesting.

It's their platform that I find most interesting, TikTok.

- What ages are Gen-Z?

- Gen-Z is 1997 to 2012.

Those years for their birth.

- [Marc] Babies.

- But they are 60% of TikTok's base, and that is the platform where they're having a discussion and debate on these public policy issues.

It's currently 10% of the electorate, but when you combine Z and millennials, you're talking about 65 million Americans.

It's the largest voting bloc ever in the history of this country.

As they become more and more politically engaged, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

- Okay, under reported, my friend.

- So one of North Carolina's blue laws fell in the last week, or is about to when the Governor potentially signs the bill.

This is the law involving bars that serve liquor but not food.

You go into one of those, it has to- - What are blue laws?

- Alcohol restrictions in states like North Carolina.

They've been around for decades.

This one involves private bars where you can get liquor but not food.

You currently have to be a member, which usually just means filling out- - [Marc] [indistinct] - Yeah, filling out a form, paying like, two dollars, but it's a hassle for the bar owners and it's another reason people might choose not to go there.

So that requirement is being done away with.

Now you can just walk in there, order a cocktail and not have to pay two bucks and put your name on a form.

- Nelson, under reported please.

- While wage inflation is likely to be with us for decades, and the answer is demographics, urbanization post World War Two has led to plummeting birth rates.

So rapid industrialization saw folks abandon rural life, where kids were actually your retirement plan, to you move to the big city and a high rise, and a child becomes a luxury.

So a lot of countries now have basically a terminal demography.

In other words, their populations have already reached their peaks, and they are aging beyond the ability to recover.

Countries like Japan, China, Germany, Italy, Russia.

And the global implications are truly enormous.

We are losing now around 400,000 workers, working age people, each month.

That's gonna continue to rise to over 900,000 per month globally, well into the mid-2030s.

And wage inflation is here to stay.

- Joe, back to Gen Z.

What are their top issues?

- Well, they are often referred to by demographers as social-justice warriors, that they feel very passionately about issues.

In fact, as consumers, they make selections of products and services based on the brand identity, the social identity of those manufacturers and service providers.

I think we're going to find that they have a diversity of opinions, a very diverse population.

One in five Gen Z are Hispanic Americans.

And so, it's probably going to be a fuller range of issue positions, but they seem to be a lot more progressive on issues like abortion, guns, and school choice.

- Okay.

I want to go to the lightning round.

Who's up and who's down this week?

Donna.

- All right.

Up, I'm going to say the number of North Carolina voters deciding to change their political affiliation.

So, about 40,000 North Carolina voters have changed their affiliation since January.

Almost half of them have become unaffiliated.

The Democratic party lost 20,000 affiliated voters.

5,000 of those decided to go Republican.

The Republican Party lost 10,000, and unaffiliated voters are the largest growing block.

And what we're talking about, Gen Z- [crosstalk] - A key demographic in every election now.

- Perfect example.

They're much more unaffiliated.

- [Host] Okay.

- My down, felon voting.

So the state Supreme Court denied a request from plaintiffs to expedite the legal process to get felons able to vote even if they haven't served out the remainder of their term - [Host] Joe.

- Yeah.

Following up on Donna's up.

A million more people registered Republican across 43 states in this country, principally suburban voters who had sort of turned away from the Republican Party as a result of frustration with Donald Trump are now coming back.

So maybe that bodes well for suburban districts where Republicans are running in tight races.

Who's down?

Happy people.

The Gallup Poll of Worldwide Satisfaction now shows for the 16 years, it says, more people are sad and worried and bothered all across the planet than we've seen in almost two decades.

So, it's clearly kind of a down time.

So my down is how down the down time is.

- Independents and Hispanics are peeling off the Democratic policies too, aren't they?

- We're seeing Hispanic voters increasingly, as they become more active in American politics, identifying as Republicans at record numbers, which is not uncommon for second-generation Americans across all- - Are they more conservative?

- Well, you see a lot more of Hispanic population within evangelical churches, maybe leaving the Catholic church to become evangelical Protestants, very family-centric, very entrepreneurial, believe in the American dream of working hard and getting the benefit of it.

- Colin.

- My up, also a group that's very happy this week: the North Carolina hemp industry, after some uncertainty about whether they'd be legal.

[crosstalk] Come July, last-minute deal in the House and Senate.

The Senate kind of blinked on the standoff they'd had for a couple weeks, passed the bill.

Now they're legal.

My down this week is the North Carolina Green Party.

They'd collected enough signatures to get their Senate candidate on the ballot, possibly taking some votes from Democrat Cheri Beasley, but the State Board of Elections voted this week along party lines not to put them on the ballot just yet, because there's potential criminal misconduct involving the ballot signature campaign.

- Nelson, who's up and who's down this week?

- Well, up: happy teens.

With all the labor shortages, companies are increasing their pay and their recruitment of teens to come join the workforce.

Unemployment among teens in the last two years is at the lowest level since it's been, since the 1950s.

- Tell me about babysitters and what they're getting.

$30 an hour.

- Oh, yeah.

Babysitters, 30 bucks an hour.

If you can get a discount from them, you know.

We'll see.

Down, the sad, sad scenario there, consumer confidence.

The conference board this week announced that consumer confidence in June reach its lowest level since the beginning of the Biden Administration and the expectations index for the economy dropped sharply to a new nine-year low.

- Donna, headline next week.

- I think Governor Cooper is going to veto a bill that was passed by the General Assembly that requires sheriffs to cooperate with ICE.

- What's the rationale behind that?

- Well, I think this, this has been coming for a really long time.

It's had several iterations, a little bit of change, but both chambers passed this week a bill that requires sheriffs, if they've got someone in custody, of a, of serious felony, domestic violence, they have to check to see their status.

- Joe, headline.

- Budget battles concluded.

All attention focuses on, can Republicans in the legislature get to super majorities?

- Headline next week.

- Cooper is probably going to sign that budget, I think.

- Okay.

Headline next week.

- General Assembly leaves town.

Happy fourth!

- Where you headed?

- To the beach.

- Okay.

Great job, panel.

That's it for us.

Thanks for watching.

Have a great Fourth of July.

Hope to see you next week on "Front Row."

[dramatic music] ♪ - [Announcer] Major funding for "Front Row" was provided by Robert L. Luddy.

Additional funding provided by Patricia and Koo Yuen through the Yuen Foundation, committed to bridging cultural differences in our communities.

And by.

Funding for the lightning round provided by Boddie-Noell Foundation, NC Realtors, Mary Louise and John Burress, Rifenburg Construction, and Helen Laughery.

A complete list of funders can be found at PBSNC.org/FrontRow.

[dramatic music] ♪