President Biden is out.

Vice President Harris is in.

Governor Gretchen Whitmer is out for VP in the first survey in the presidential race.

Lots to discuss on this special correspondents edition of Off the Record with Jim Kiertzner, Clara Hendrickson Beth LeBlanc and Bill Ballenger.

Sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the record production of Off the Record is made possible, in part by Martin Waymire, a full service strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at Martinwaymire.com And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Thanks very much.

A non-news week in our town right.

Nothing going on, it's summertime.

Let's go up north.

We have a new apparently presidential race.

Let's take a look In th head to head national contest.

It's 49% for Mr. Trump, 47% for Ms. Harris, which means it's a statistical dead heat.

However, when you add third party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr to the equation, Mr. Trump has a four point lead over Ms. Harris.

This data was collected by this East Coast University and started before Mr. Biden made his decision public.

But it also included data from Sunday, the day he did that.

The survey show that the vice president shares some of the same pluses and minuses that the president had against former President Trump.

For example, Mr. Trump continues to lead with male voters, younger voters, non-college voters, and he enjoys a hefty 14 point lead with tha all important independent voter.

Meanwhile, the vice president has a 70 point advantage with African-American voters and an average eight point lead with seniors over the age of 50.

And her lead with colleg educated voters is ten points.

And with female voters, it's 14.

As for the impact of the attempted assassination, 53% repor it has no impact on their vote.

30% say they are more likely to vote.

Mr. Trump.

30% say they are more likely to vote for Mr. Trump and 15 say less likely to support him.

At the Nationa Republican Convention last week, Republicans told voters that their candidate would save the democracy.

But Ms.. Harris is expected to continue the president's theme that the Republican candidate would hurt the democracy in this poll.

Here are the numbers.

More voters believe the president will divide the nation that bring it together.

And at this rate, Mr. Trump has more favorable numbers than his opponent by nine points.

So Beth you do hav the latest latest poll on this.

And the Detroit News is reporting.

Yeah.

Just last night we reported that polling conducted earlier this week showed basically a statistical tie between Trump and Harris.

So 41% to 41%.

What was interesting about that poll, though, was Kennedy had about 10% of the vote.

Not only that, but he was leading among independent voters, which are key.

That's huge.

And that's a complete change.

It's a key it's a key demographic to get in Michigan elections.

Right.

That's what decides elections in Michigan.

And he's leading by a sliver.

He's got about 27%.

HARRIS 26%, and Trump 25%.

So I think moving forward we're really looking at a race to capture that middle ground.

And we'll see what the candidates do to try to capture that.

It's pretty extraordinary if you look at both that poll and the others that have come out since Biden dropped out of the race, Harris has basically been able to narrow the gap with Trump and make up for Trump's advantage over Biden, which seems to indicate that Democrats had a Biden problem and not necessarily a policy problem.

So with her in the race lik this, this changes everything.

At the same time, though, the same states still matter.

She still has to win the same key states.

And the issues that are weighing on voters minds are still the same.

Inflation being a key one.

And so that will be a key tas for Harris is how she tries to either take a different tack than Biden does on some of those issues or if she tries to sort of sing from the same songbook there.

Harris needs to get tested.

And we have 100 some days to do that.

We have not seen her at the top of the ticket.

Everything's going to be how does she perform?

When does she do her first sit down interview, some in-depth interview, answering questions on the fly.

I bet she doesn't do Lester Holt You don't think so?

Well, he got her into trouble.

Remember the discussion, Are you going to the wall that's already showing up in Republican ad.

Of course, that's okay, But she can't dodge that.

She's got to do those.

That's what's going to test her.

William.

Well, I think what Beth said is absolutely true.

Kennedy seems to have surged in a number of polls as an independent alternative to the two major party candidates and how that affects the two frontrunners.

Trump and Harris remains to be seen.

It's interesting.

It was only 41 to 41.

I mean, a lot of undecided voters out there.

So, I mean, look, we're in a totally new environment, totally new landscape.

I mean, things have been turned upside down.

And I think Jim is absolutely right.

Harris has got to be drawn out by somebody on a lot of the issues.

And I think if she's going to appeal to swing independent voters, she's got to erase her image as being a far left San Francisco liberal.

That is her reputation.

So she carries all of Biden's baggage.

And added to that, she's being depicted by Trump right now.

They're really going after he on the liberal West Coast image and she's got to make sure she moderates that perception, in my opinion.

Is there a possibility that the Kennedy number is a holdover from the Biden candidacy and more reflective of that than it is of her?

Yeah, I don't think that stands.

I see that 10% dropping.

I don't think that stands.

It will erode.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Well, I think that's dependent o their messaging from here on out in their targeting of those voters.

Right.

Like, what are th what are the policy objectives or the messaging that they can get across to to sway those voters one way or another?

I mean, this was the, you know, basically the survey went into the field hours after on Monday, hours after she got the endorsement from Biden.

So there is a lot of shaking out that still needs to be done.

And I think we'll see in the next couple of weeks.

What's her message in Michigan?

What's her message in Michigan?

Well I think she has an opportunity to maybe flip the script on some of the vulnerabilitie that Biden has had in the state.

This could be a watershed moment when it comes to American Israel policy.

Netanyahu addressed Congress this week, and you're seeing the uncommitted delegates in Michigan really trying to push her to show that she's going to take a different approach than Biden has when it comes to Gaza and the handling of the situation there.

Potentially another way for her to message in the state is around EVs.

And we've seen Trump go really hard against the transition to electric vehicles.

Does she sort of take the Biden tune here and really defend the administration's investment in that transition?

Or does she sort of try and broaden the appeal t other sort of manufacturing jobs that the Biden administration has claimed credit for?

In the UAW sitting on it collective hands for the moment, what does that mean?

I think they're saying show me something.

Exactly.

They just want to hear from Kamala Harris and on exactly the issues the care about on electric vehicles.

I mean, think about it.

Does she really want to double down the Biden administration o electric vehicles in the state where all the data is going in the opposite direction?

I'm not sure about that.

So she comes down heavily on that.

I think that's not going to help her much.

Where does this race go now?

I again I just think it all comes down very simply t how does Harris define herself, as these people are describing and articulate where she stands with all of these, the UAW, with swing voters, younger voters?

You know, her campaign is already trying to energize, bring in the younger voters who are.

There all over Tik-Tok.

Yeah, exactly.

Who are sitting it out because they didn't want the two old men.

Well, no you don't have the two old men.

And she's painting Trump as here's the old man now and I'm the young person.

And to say I've never felt so old politically as I have this week, learning about new social media trend that I wasn't aware of at all.

Okay.

Yeah.

Yeah.

This is this is a fair statement.

Prior to this announcement that Mr. Biden was getting out, would you say that the Trump people were geeked having him at the top of the ticket and now not so much?

Oh, no.

Oh, absolutely.

Yeah.

They wanted Biden as the candidate They spent two years of somebody said all the money they spent setting up Joe Biden and now he's not there.

They saw this possibility coming and they claim that they were prepared for it.

Doesn't look so much like they were in the first couple of days.

But let's see how things unfold.

We've got, as you say, 100 days, a lot of time for things to change.

She's picking up this young vote.

Beth if I read your survey correctly, the older voters now are a little more suspec about her than they were Biden and that that might not be a good trait.

Michigan is an old state.

We got an older population compared to most of the rest of the country.

And older white, particularly working class, particularly males, are apt to be for Trump to begin with.

And now with Harris, it looks like they're even more for Trump in all these polls.

That's what's showing up.

Did I read that data correctly that the seniors ar not as much on board with her?

I don't know that we've broken it down.

So we're still going to be doing more reporting on that poll.

I don't think we've broken it down by age yet, But I mean, yeah, I think of what I saw of the poll last night.

It is trending the way you would expect it to trend, right.

The way it's split along lines with male voters supporting Trump, more female voter supporting Kamala Harris, more.

And then you just have this group in the middle that's mix of of all sorts who's who's undecided or for Kennedy at the end of the day.

On the gender thing.

My reading of data i that women are smarter than men and they show up voting more than men.

Do I get, shall I ask the ladies that question first?

I think we've see in the post-Trump era, suburban wome playing a really decisive role in these elections, which is why I don't think it should be surprising to hear Whitmer say that maybe the country is ready for an All women ticket, especially since this will be the first presidential election post Dobbs.

There might be a desire to lean into that from the Harris campaign's part, if not on Whitmer's part.

Thank you.

I was looking for a segue.

You just gave it to me.

Speaking about an all women's ticket.

Let's talk about one woman who's well, what is she doing about VP?

Early this past Sunda afternoon, the political earth moved as President Joe Bide finally decided to hang it up.

And then he quickly embraced his vice president to head the Democratic ticket this fall.

There was an avalanche of responses from key Democrats all over the country.

However, as the hours tick by, the silence from Governor Whitmer's office was deafening on whether she would endorse Kamala Harris to.

The governor made her first public appearance Monday morning in Lansing.

And at this event, she only wanted to talk about a new Navy ship being named after the city of Lansing.

However, reporters well, reporters had a more pressing question to ask.

Are you prepared to take the vice presidency if it's offered, ma'am?

At the event, the governor's office made it crystal clear that she was not taking any questions from reporters either at the podium or in a scrum after the event.

So as the governor dashed off to the safety of the state capitol building before reporters could catch up with her.

Now the game of cat and mouse commenced.

It was known that the governor was headed to Warren to do yet another even with the secretary of the Navy, which meant she had to come out of the building at some point and get into her vehicle.

And when she finally emerged, her self-imposed silence was broken.

Are you prepared to take the vice presidency if it's offered, ma'am?

No, I'm not planning to go anywhere.

So if they offer it, you will not take it.

I am not leaving Michigan.

I'm prou to be the governor of Michigan.

I have been consistent.

Remember, in 2020, had candidate Joe Biden asked her to be his running mate.

Governor Whitmer has confessed.

She would have said yes.

But now on the VP thing, she reflects.

You know, everyone is always suspicious and asking this question over and over again, I know you're doing your job.

I'm not going anywhere.

Her initial refusal on Sunday to endorse the vice president only fed into the speculation that perhaps the governor who co-chaire the now defunct Biden campaign would actually challeng Miss Harris for the nomination.

Why did it take you so long?

I think everyone was surprised by the news yesterday, even though there was a lot of conversation about it.

And that means co-chairs included.

So wanted a minute to check in with all my colleagues and let the dust settle and proud to be supporting the vice president for president.

And with that, she was off.

And I guess how much.

Thank you, Governor.

All right.

Two things.

First of all, thanks to my photographer, Joe Sharkey, who did a fantastic job and also thanks to the governor for stopping.

She she had an option there, didn't she?

What did you make of this?

Well, you know, I think this week she's she said a few different ways that she's not interested in the vice presidency, that she hasn't submitted vetting paperwork to to the Harris campaign, although they said they did.

Well there are reports that she did, but she said pretty clearly at a budget signing earlier this week that that she hadn't tha she had the only copy left from from when she was vetted four years ago and the rest were destroyed.

And then on Wednesday, though, she also made some comments on a podcast saying she thought the country was ready for an all female ticket.

But that but then clarified that she was committed to the state.

So there have been lots of denials that she's interested in it.

And there are a lot of other candidates right now who ar being vetted for VP right now.

I mean, the big question is 2028.

Right.

If Whitmer has presidential aspirations, which is an if right she said that she's only focused on serving out her term as Governor.

This is our opium at the capitol press corps.

Okay.

But, you know, if she actually is in the running to be a vice president pick for Harris, is that really where she would want to be to position hersel for a 28 run, or is she better staying in Michigan and serving out her term?

The New York Pos said she's not running because she's afraid they would lose and then she's a loser.

What did you make of the announcement?

Well, first of all, do you believe her?

Do you think she was interested in V.P.?

You mean well under Kamala?

I doubt it.

I mean, stop and think about it.

I mean, if Kamala wins, 28 is out, 32 might be in.

So we were pushing things way off into the future.

If Kamala loses, then obviousl Whitmer would be in a position like she was when her state Senate term ended in 2014.

People wanted her to run for attorney general.

She said, No, I'm going to wait.

She sat on the sidelines out of office for four years, and then in 2018 she runs for governor and wins.

So, you know, quit in 2026, your term is over.

You're done.

Spend two years building up infrastructure to run for president in 2028 and, you know, see what happens.

James.

You had a good comment.

We were talking her at the table before we came on and you said you look at all of the photos of the peopl who were the candidates for V.P.

It's all white males.

And then there's Whitmer.

There's Whitmer.

One person.

Yeah, one female in the group.

She stayed u there, posted nationally on all this murderer's row of potential vice presidents.

She was the only female.

So, you know, the commerce secretary, a woman was in.

I saw some of the pieces.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I think for the VP stakes, I think we can take Whitmer right now at face value.

That's where I'm at on that.

I think to the bank.

She's.

She's really not interested.

Yeah.

Yeah, I think I'll take that at face value.

On the other hand, I think the two, I think, who are emerging as the frontrunners are the Pennsylvania governor.

Shapiro, and the U.S. senator down in Arizona.

Roy Cooper?

Oh, you mean No, no.

Mark Kelly in Arizona.

Roy Cooper in North Carolina.

Well, Pennsylvania's.

Shapiro.

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

I think it's I think its Josh Shapiro.

My money is on Josh Shapiro.

Even though he was for vouchers.

Yep.

Yep.

He's for fracking, too.

Yep.

I don' think that's a defining issue, to be honest with you His position on the Israel-Hamas war may be a liability as well that I'm sure the Harris campaign is examining closely.

All right.

So now that the vice president is not going to be Ms. Whitmer let's talk about the impact of now the new presidential race on House races, which, of course, is very, very, very important.

It's huge.

It's huge.

I mean, the top of the ticket can either drag down or lift up down ballot races.

And so for all of the House Democrats who are running for reelection in districts that Trump won in 2020 this is very good news for them.

A lot of Democratic voters are now just feeling the sense of kind of like euphoria.

Now they have a new young, fres face at the top of the ticket.

No one was particularly excited about a Biden Trump rematch.

Totally different dynamic now.

You say House races, you talking federal or state.

No, no state.

Well, state huge.

56-54, narrow Democratic margin.

Everything that Clara just said is absolutely true.

Coattails can have an enormous effect if it's close at the top of the ticket, which I think it will be this year.

Whoever wins, it's not going to be like 2022 where Whitmer and Nessel and Benson were blowing everybody away by te plus points, and the Republicans still came within two seats of controlling the House.

This time it's going to be really close at the top of the ticket.

So on pape they have a much better chance to pick up control this year than they did back in 2000.

Yeah, I think I think that's an important point that House Republicans and Democrats are looking at the fact that, you know, Whitmer won by, what, ten points in 2022 in still, they were only able to get a 56-54 majority if it's closer than that, with Harris at the top of the ticket it certainly doesn't hurt them to have Harris at the top of the ticket.

It will probably help them, but it's still going to be a very close call.

Well, on the numbers alone, Biden at the top of the ticket was down seven points.

That's a disaster for House Democrats.

Yeah, they look, they'll take a ti any day compared to that, right?

Yeah, absolutely.

They're much better of with Harris running than Biden, no question.

But still, is that going to make the difference as to whether they keep their majority?

What issues are driving these House races?

Do we know?

What are they campaigning on in the in the field away from our town?

Well, first of all, there's a lot of angst among Republicans about the school budget.

You say probably nobody cares.

And maybe you're right when I say that.

And maybe you're right.

when did I say that?

You said that a couple of programs ago and I was here at the table.

He remembers.

Let's go to the videotape.

I mean, there are other issues.

There's the issue of, you know, local control on wind projects.

Yeah, wind farms and taking it away from local control and giving it to the state.

Republicans arguing that the Democrats have spent like drunken sailors, as Jim Blanchard used to say, and that they've squandered all the money that we had from our flush budget years.

So, I mean, there are a lot o issues like that out there now.

There may be some individual downscale issues like abortion, which is not as important now as it was in 2022.

And that's something else to think about.

Harris has been, for instance, at the top of the ticket, kind of the abortion queen, the attack dog on abortion coming into this race.

All the polls now in most of these swing states are showing that's way down on the list.

After immigratio and the economy and inflation.

Yeah, yeah.

Way down the list.

So she's got to get off that subject in my mind.

If she wants to really improve her standing with independent and ticket splitters and that includes in House races, maybe abortio will be an issue in some race.

I doubt it.

But I mean, there are issues there at the local level.

But again going back to what Beth said, it depends mainly on what happens at the top of the ticket.

I also think some of the some of the policies that are being highlighted in attacking these candidates or promoting them are kind of regional.

Right.

Like, I think in the U.P., you're going to see more of more attacks based around that local control issue where you where you have folks who are more centrist and don't want the state kind of coming in to the U.P.

and saying how how they distribute thei property or use their property.

I think you're going to see, you know, questions of immigration, maybe in western Michigan attacks in that respect, even though it's not really a state level issue.

So I thin it's going to be more regional.

The types of attacks that you see throughout the state.

Just say in Marquette, there's a state representative, Jenn Hill, a Democrat, won, you know, by about five points, two years ago.

She's running scared.

And she's running scared.

And she had to cast a whole bunch of tough votes that the Democratic majority downstate needed to get 56 votes.

And they don't go well in the 109th district.

Well, that was the hope that the Republicans started almost from the day the House was sworn in, which is the Democrats will go too far.

And when they do will tel the voters, did they go too far?

Well, I mean, you have t look at the issue on some issues Guns.

Right there public opinion is on their side.

And they were very explicit about that at the outset of the gun conversation.

They said we're looking a the polling data to figure out what are the gun safety measures we want to pass.

And they've pretty much stuck to the ones that have popular support and they haven't touched the ones that don't have popular support.

Assault weapons.

Red flag two on the guns.

Yeah, but to Bills poin about the budget in the schools.

I think that is a tough issue that the Dems are going to have to face because this is from Oakland County.

This is superintendents document You're not going to read it.

No, no, no, no, please.

No, thanks.

Jim, I appreciate it.

You know what's left of ou audience might be out the door.

No, this is very technical, but they they don't like what happened with the school budget because per pupi funding is flat and they believe they shortchanged mental health and school safety.

And.

And you said there's a possibility that they could revisit this.

But the problem for the Democrats, it's a simple commercial.

The Democrats voted to not increase the student school grant.

Now the Democrats say, well, yes, we did.

We went in another door.

But now they've got to explain that.

And when you're explaining, you're in trouble.

You lose.

Yeah, Well, and the other thin that the process of explaining it is a very technical process here.

It's difficult for us to wrap our minds around, let alone to to convey to a reader and to make them understand that, yeah, I think that's going to be an issue in southeast Michigan in particular, the superintendents there have been very vocal about their upset over what has happened.

And yeah, they could revisit it.

They, they could look at a supplemental, but with what money.

Right.

They have about 300 million on the on the balance sheet.

I guess they could use that.

But there's some big questions about whether they will or whether it's been saved for something else.

Yeah, well, the educatio lobby wants them to come back in after the election and give us more money.

But you're right, that money's not there in the election, not before.

The primary.

Yeah, after the primary Oh the primary.

Okay.

All right.

So quickly, give me give me your take on the US Senate race.

Which side?

Pick one.

Whichever one you like.

Well, I don't.

We believe that the frontrunners are Rogers and Slotkin.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And I don't think that changes.

I think the acto is trying to go after Rogers But you know Rogers now has Trump's endorsement.

And, you know there are a lot of similarity.

He's there with Roger and Trump and Vance and Trump.

If you want to look back at some of the things Rogers said about Trump and now it's unity, right?

But until the general election.

Yeah, but, you know, we watched the Republican convention play out and the unity that that was showcased out there.

Let me just say this while I'm on this panel right now, We have the Democratic Convention coming up in a couple of weeks.

I have a couple of predictions about that.

They're going to do a huge celebration of President Biden and his career.

They're going to showcase him like we've never seen before, but it will be on a Tuesday night.

Yeah, it's not going to be the final night, the Thursday night, but they're going to give him his due.

That's going to b the night of the Joe Biden show.

That's my prediction.

I think you're safe on.

Is that a good thing, Jim?

Well, I think that's to thank him for for.

I know.

But is it good for the Democrats and for Kamala Harri if they give a big celebration.

It's one night.

That's why it's on Tuesday.

It might even be on Sunday night or Monday.

At the pre-parties.

All right.

We're out of time here, guys.

Thank you so much for showing up.

Thank you all for tuning in.

Next week let's have more off the record.

Join us right here then.

production of Off the Record is made possible in part by Martin Waymire, a full service strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement, learn more at Martinwaymire.com For more off the record, visit wkar.org Michigan public television stations have contributed to the production costs of off the record.