State lawmakers dashed to the finish line and missed it by a day or so on fixing the state budget.

$80 billion of your tax dollars being spent this week.

Welcome to this correspondence edition of Off the Record.

So sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the record.

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And now this edition of Off the Record, with Tim Skubick.

Thank you very much.

Welcome to studio C on a Tuesday know because of the holiday we're in studio, so we're flying on radar.

On the budget.

Well have to do three versions of this show to see which one we get it right.

But let's bring us up to speed.

Where are we on the budget at this?

Read on Tuesday with nobody coming to town to vote today.

Yeah, they decided it wasn't worth coming into session.

What we understand is that good progress was made over the weekend.

They finally got their targets that we were promised all last week.

Some targets.

Targets are the decisions on how much each department is going to get to spend.

So we know how much money, subcommittees met over the weekend.

Good progress was made.

People are in places where we can move forward about some of the high level decisions, I guess, like when we're going to vote and everyone is holding their breath and saying, we can do it this week.

And you don't sound like you believe that.

Well, let me say that last Tuesday we were told there will be targets by the end of the day, and there were not.

So I'm not holding my breath because I need to stay sane.

Yeah.

What do you.

What do you make of this, Lauren?

I mean, I think there's always a lot of chitter chatter.

And it always usually does com down to the wire in some cases.

There is a, there is a legislative deadline to get this done by July 1st.

And if they don't get it done by July 1st, they will have a lot of a lot of complaints from local governments, from schools, from all of those folks who get funding from the state government and need to start their budgets sooner than the constitutional deadline of October 1st.

That said, there's no actual teeth in that legislation, so if they don't get it done before the 4th of July, I do not expect them to be here on the 4th of July weekend.

Well, and last year they didn't pass it until October 3rd and nothing bad happened.

So I think that maybe other than campaigning this year, people are like, well you know.

Well yeah, they missed it by 95 days.

Okay.

This one they may missed by 2 or 3, which for government where Chuck is pretty close.

Yeah.

I think there's a lot of incentive.

If you already sai to get the budget done on time, and I won't be surprised if it goes a day or two late.

But I don't think we're going to get into the 95 days at all, primarily because of what Elena said.

It's an election year.

Everybody has to go back and campaign.

It's the governor's last budget.

I'm sure she wants to go out saying I got if I didn't get it on the date, I got darn close to it.

And who' counting on a day or two late?

So I think they're going to get it done.

It sounds as though they've ironed out the hard stuff, and it's jus that nice and crossing the T's, but we all know it's not done until it's done.

William?

I don't think they're going to be pulling all nighters on 4th of July weekend, so if they don't get it done before the fourth starts, they'll kick it ove to the next week in my opinion, and get it done in the few days.

That's probably most likely.

You know, really what they ought to do Tim, is what we've discussed on this show in the past.

Move the fiscal year, you know, back to July 1st, where it was originally until back in the Milliken era, when they had to for budget reasons, kick it up to October 1st to make something work.

They had to change that an bring it back, because right now the legislature says, you know what?

Legally, constitutionally, we don't really have to do anything until October 1st.

Because since you're the only person on this panel that actually sat in the legislature, our condolences and had to write budget.

Was it always this confusing?

It was not.

Well, it was i was tough to meet the deadline.

Listen, I voted on a budget in 1969, three days before Christmas.

Whoa.

I mean, we're way past that.

When the fiscal year began, October 1st, and we're voting on part of the budget, not the whole budget.

Wasn't a big bus, school bus and stuff like that that they have now.

They weren't.

Everything was compartmentalized.

So it's mental health that we voted on like three days before Christmas.

We just kept piecing it along week by week.

Well, the schools are complaining that they needed it by July 1s because their budgets were due on that date.

But, Chuck, if you're a school district, can't you go back into that budget tha you passed on the 30th of June and monkey around with it?

You can't But they don't like doing that.

They like to have that certainty, to be able to say, we know exactly what we have to do.

Welcome to the world of politics.

Well, I mean, I think they said in a press release they're not in town today.

Get back in town.

They don't realize the staff is working today on Tuesday to tee this up.

But superintendent are educators, not politicians.

Even though there's several of them.

They have a lot of politics in them, but they'd like to be able to have that certainty as much as they can.

Yes, they've gotten used to this process where things get pushed.

They don't like it.

And in their world, if they could have everything nicely wrapped with a bow presented to them on time, it makes their life easier.

But they'll get by if they have.

Well, they have no other choice.

That's right.

And I do think if the I do think if they extend this well beyond, the actual July deadline like they did last year, it is a little bit different stakes, right?

Those schools and local governments could make it a big problem for people in swing districts about how they're not getting the budget done effectively.

So that's another factor this year.

Two years in a row.

Yes.

So so that's another factor this year.

That's probably putting a little fire under everyone.

I've never seen that mak a difference in a race actually.

I mean yes.

Some of those districts are a lot different than they used to be.

Comes down to a few votes.

If I'd be very surprised if we find that control the legislature depends on the fact the incumbent was one of 148 legislators that didn't pass a budget on time.

Not going to happen.

Yeah, but that doesn't mean they won't try.

Well, they'll try, but you know.

Yeah.

I just don't think it's going to work.

I mean, I, I think that you're right.

It probably won't make a bi difference in the actual outcome of the campaigns because how much do voters really pay attention to the budget?

They don't.

Other than they care about the school budget.

Wait a minute we just gave them ten minutes of it, right?

Yeah, I think that's food budget.

But I mean, at the end of the day, it'll get done and it will take a long time.

Life will go on.

Life.

Life will go on.

All right.

We had last week in this chair Bill Schuette.

Were you all surprised to see him?

Yes.

No, Billy?.

No not really.

He's an eternal politician and he has not changed one iota.

No.

The questions he doesn't want to answer, he won't answer me.

We got a set up piece because Mr.

Schuette alleges and contends that Donald Trump's endorsement of John James for governo will not hurt him in the fall.

Here's that story.

Donald Trump punched his ticket and it may carry him through.

That's former Republican candidate for governor in Michigan, Bill Schuette, referring to last week's stunning political announcement that the president.

Mr.

Trump wants you to vote for John James, the Republican for governor, in the fall.

Mr.

Schuette himself ran for governor back in the day, and he also had Mr.

Trump's blessing.

And did that cost him the election, which he lost?

No, I don't think he did.

How do you know?

Well, I just to make sur his endorsement was solid gold, it turned to nothing.

You know, but here's the issue.

In 2018 we had losses of huge magnitude across the country, and it was the midterm.

Epic MRA pollster Bernie porn looks at Mr.

Trump's lowest approval rating ever of 33%.

And if he turns that number around, he says it would likel take an unforeseeable miracle.

It would probably take a an uncertain, unforeseen miracle for those numbers to change.

Trump's numbers are so low, it is not a benefit for a Republican to have him, have an endorsement by him among independents.

But Mr.

Schuette counters by November, gas prices could be lower in the US, could have stopped Iran from building a nuclear bomb, which would be fine with voters, he thinks.

Plus Mr.. He contends the Democratic Party of yesteryear has gone so far to the left today that mainstream voters in November won't support that party.

I don't thin Bill Clinton would recognize it.

I don't even think Barack Obama would recognize it.

It's held captive by the Democrats, Socialist, Mamdani AOC, the squad, and they have left the, the rest of the Democratic Party behind.

But Mr.

Paul counters those socialist wins.

Where in New York and everybody knows across the nation, New York is a unique, particular geographic area that is not reflective of the nation.

So let's just say these two will agree to disagree in an agreeable manner.

Can, can the president recover from 33% between now and November?

I think it's getting closer every day.

And that is a tough a tough uphill battle.

There's a lot going on.

But I think as was mentioned in that piece, some of the biggest is just high gas prices, ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

I don't know that those issues are necessaril going to get resolved by then.

Chuck, what do you think?

It almost sounds like Bil Schuette is on Trump's payroll hitting all of those speaking points.

I think that the president is particularly from the Democrats point of view, is ten times more toxic than he was that first term.

And if it didn't help Bill, surely then I think there's the potential that it coul really backfire on John James.

We don't know for sure.

We don't know ho the race is going to shape up.

Will the Benson campaign, assuming that she turns out to be the nominee, and Democrats, will they roll up all those ads that we're hearing on radio and television again with the Trump endorsement?

You better believe it.

They've recorded every single one.

They're going to jam him down his throat.

Whether or not it sticks wit the voters is the big question.

We don't know.

But they are certainly going to remind people all through October and November that you had the endorsement of President Donald Trump.

So don't tr to detach yourself from him now, because there is the possibility that John James, once the primary is over, if he wins the primary, will then try to back up a little bit, come a little bit more towards the center.

It's going to be the Democrats turn to be able to say, no, no, no.

You wanted.

You wanted his endorsement and you got the endorsement.

So don't now try to divorce yourself.

I think it's kind of interesting that Republicans are sort of trying to play both ways.

I was talking to U.S.

Senate candidate Mike Rogers, back around the time the Mackinac Policy Conference, and I was asking him about the national environment for Republicans.

And he reminded me that this race was about Michigan, not the federal government, even though he is running for federal office.

But it was about Michigan.

So let's not talk about how Republicans are doing nationally.

So I think they are kind of trying to teeter that line because it's like, oh, I am endorsed by Trump.

But the federal that stuff doesn't matter.

Billy?

So much to say, I think Bernie Porn is a lot closer to the truth then Bill Schuette is.

I mean, there's no questio if Trump's numbers are as bad in November as they are now, it's gonna really damage the Republicans badly.

We're going to have 2006, 20 years ago all over again, middle of George, W Bushs, second term.

Republicans took a bath.

The only survivors were Mike Cox and Terry Land running for reelection because they were incombants.

Otherwise, you got an open seat.

It's really going to be bad.

Well, let's not forget that the, senior president Bush, after the Gulf War was at 89% approval, right?

Yeah.

Okay.

And what happened?

Well, it plummeted by the time the election cam around because of the economy.

So it was quickly vanished.

All the big approval he had in the first year or two of his term.

I, I think Mr.

Porn is right, but I'm still in the back of my mind.

This is this is an eternity.

November is a long ways away.

Is Michigan insulated from what's going on nationally, the national climate?

Are people going to look at these races and say, you know what, I don't care about Trump or the federal government or anything else?

Is, Doug Lloyd going to be the guy I want for attorney general or is Eli Savit?

Is that the way they're going to think?

Some of them, yes.

But if you've got a huge crushing weight down on you from the top of the, political spectrum, Donald Trump.

Negative.

It's just going to crush.

But what if gas is $2.50 a gallon?

I think its not going to be.

$2.50.

Do you promise?

No.

I have no crystal ball.

All I got is a coffee cup.

Not going to happen.

I think the best thing the Republican Party can hope fo is that the economy turns around and is in a lot better shape than it is now.

Gas prices.

All the things we talked about, going to the grocery store, if that happens, they've got a shot.

Can the economy turn around that quickly in four months?

No it cant.

No.

It's almost impossible.

That's impossible.

It's baked in.

But if things November are the way they are now, then you know, Trump is one thing.

It's the rest of the party and those people that are having to run as independents and as Republicans in a particular state, not running as Donald Trump.

Even if the economy were to magically turn around in the next four months.

I think that it takes longer for people's perception of the economy to change.

So at this point, it is what it is.

I think it really depends on the race too, right?

I do think especially thos swing congressional districts, that will definitely be very, very, related to what happens in, in the national level, what Trump's ratings are.

And I think perhap the governor could go similar.

I think, I think back to the 2024, when Elissa Slotki was able to overcome some very of some very negative headwinds for Democrats nationally.

You know, perhaps Mike Rogers, because he has been able to essentially run uncontested this whole time, bank up all that support.

Maybe there's a chance there, even if it's, even if it's down, it really just kind of depends on the candidates.

And, you brought u some of those state level races that could get very interesting as well.

So Michigan is isn't exactly a picture copy of the, of the National.

Here's what you want to look at.

Where are the independent voters?

Okay They are the key to all of this.

And they are usually, we think, more intelligent.

Take a little bit of time.

But if the if the number are still as low as they are now 25% support, this is, Katie.

Bar the door.

Exactly.

You're right.

That's it.

And people tend to vote with their pocketbook issues when you know they'll be all the negative campaigns on both sides of the political fence.

And there'll be mudslinging galore, which at some point will make people just sort of zone out.

But then when election Day comes or they're filling out their ballot, a lot of times people will come down to say, am I better of now than I was four years ago?

And if I can't answer yes or no one there, then that's how.

All right, so we have a story this week that Perry Johnso is going to spend the next month running negative ads against John James.

The question is one, does it work?

And two, does it make any difference?

It may, which are both the same question.

It may work in the primary.

It's just going to hurt the Republicans.

It's going to be like, you know.

What choice does he have?

He doesn't have any choice at this point.

I mean, he's like probably trailing most of the polls we've seen, not by huge amounts.

He's trailing James.

And you know, he's already spent way more than James.

I mean, millions of dollars in ads.

And he still can't break through.

So he's this is the only game in town for him.

He's just got to bury hi in money in the ads between now and August 4th.

We talked a little bit about how the Trump endorsement could come back to haunt John James right now.

He needed that endorsement.

And I do think that it ultimatel will help among voters who are who are still fans of Trump.

There's the primary in the primary, yes.

If we're talking primary cycle.

Yeah.

Johnson has no a lot of headwinds to overcome to make back some of the support he might lose.

If somebody is looking up who did Trump endorse?

This is who I'm going to support.

That said, there's been so much toxic energy in in some of these conversations that I don't think it's necessarily a guarantee for John James either.

The Trump endorsement is not just a easy path to the nomination by any means.

So so there is a possibility that, if he papers the state with ads, especially negative ones against James, that maybe he could start to make up the difference.

Well, in Mr.

Schuette's point in the program last wee was then Mike Cox might slip in.

And that's also a possibility.

That's a good angle, isn't it?

It is.

It's an angle.

I think if you did happe I mean, the two front runners, it's a long shot.

We haven't seen much from Mike Cox.

So when you hang on, hang on, you have you you will you do.

That's true.

Yeah.

He's got he's got some stuff that he's going to lay on John James.

I think he'd actually be the strongest general election candidate against Jocelyn Benson.

I don't think there's any question with that, but I just don't think he can get there.

Well, why can't he convince the Republicans of that?

We'll find out on all this.

Fourth, that I don't think he's going to be able to break through Johnson' money and, James's endorsement by Trump, that's those are the two majo hurdles for Mike Cox right now.

What if he picks up Mike Duggan's endorsement?

I don' think that's going to help him.

That wouldn't help him And that's not going to happen.

Remember, Mike Duggan said, I'm going to watch.

I'm going to watch these candidates and the one who's going to imitate me might get my endorsement.

Did I read that correctly?

Hear that correctly?

You heard it correctly, but I really thin he was focused in on the general and not in the primary.

I don't I agree, Bill, I don't think that he's going to touch i getting in in the primary race.

But I think after the primary, I think there's very real possibility he will look at whoever the two candidates are and depending on what they're saying and with which one he feel is more in sync with his vision, then I think there is a possibility he could come out in endorsing one.

Yeah, I would be interested to see if he does or not.

I, I am not, holding my breath.

All right.

The Detroit News endorsed Mr.

Swanson, the sheriff, Genesee County.

Yeah.

What's that all about?

Probably more a statement on, antipathy toward Jocelyn Benson.

Yes.

Enthusiastic support for Chris Swanson.

But I think it's really telling.

I think it's amazing because nobody gives Chris Swanson a snowball's chance in hell of beating Jocelyn Benson.

Yet.

The news went out on a limb and said, we're taking him.

I think it's interesting that they chose to endorse rather than just they could.

You're right.

You could have said about.

Yeah, yeah.

So that that is very much making a statement there.

I think it speaks highly to their disdain for Mrs.

Benson.

I think you hit the nail on the head.

And I think you're going to see it editorial wise and all down the line.

They're going to be tough on Jocelyn Benson.

And the Free Press went for Mrs.

McMorrow.

Yeah.

And that was I think a a boost for McMorrow's campaign.

And they're certainly treating it as one, especially as we're seein some flagging poll numbers and, Abdul El-Sayed and Stevens are starting to, starting to duke it out amongst each other and the tension is starting to turn away.

And, Mallory McMorrow does need some additional, some additional boos to her campaign to stay in that, that contention.

I think there might still be a path, but it is starting to clos if there's not some substantial, developments.

Tim, you know, this assumes that endorsements matter anymore.

The people really care about newspaper endorsements, even the free press.

Some people are going newspapers.

I mean, honest to God, I really just think this is a nothing burger compared to 50 years ago.

Yes, but if you're the candidate, you will take it because, you know, you'd any, any port in a storm.

Yes, absolutely.

Oh, absolutely.

I think that's something new to talk about.

I think that's true.

Yeah.

It's something that they can put out or press release on.

They can make ads on it.

It's an especially in a race as contested as, as the U.S.

Senate race.

Gosh, I' seeing endorsements from people.

I've never even heard of it coming through my inbox.

And I'm just like, well, you know, I understand why all these candidates who are in such a heated primary battle, they're going to take what they can get right, is the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

A problem for Curtis Hertel the chair?

I don't think it's necessarily a problem.

It's a big challenge, is a democratic.

What is the chance of statements that you heard earlier about this is unique to New York?

Yeah, Mamdani an this can't happen in Michigan.

Were you buying that?.

No, I'm not buying it.

I mean, Abdul El-Sayed could win the Democratic primary.

He could beat Mike Rogers.

This could happen.

They have got progressive candidates.

The Democrats do in various states around the country, in Colorado right now.

It is insurgent right now, but they are not the mainstream of the Michigan Democratic Party, will you?

They are.

They're not considered the mainstream in any state, but they're getting closer all the time because the moderat establishment Democratic Party is like adrift at sea.

They don't have an agenda.

And the progressives have been coming on strong.

They have very hard positions, a Medicare for all Bernie Sanders endorsement.

They getting rid of the police, closing the prisons.

Well, some of that stuff is going to be over the top, but a lot of their message has great appeal within the Democratic Party.

And the real question is, can that translate with the independents that you talk about in the general election?

And if it may not this year, it could in 2028?

I think where it gets really fascinating is if, you know, if I've double said when, certainly we'll see some progressive support there.

You will see progressive come out to support Democrats.

If he doesn't wi the nomination, what do they do?

I don't think that they necessarily are itching to vote for Haley Stevens.

And that's where it's very interesting.

If it's I'll say Ed and Stevens, because they are kind of pola ends of the Democratic spectrum.

So if where do people go?

Because there's not really a middle there.

I think if you're a true diehard progressiv and you believe in the mantra, why would you vote for somebody who wasn't on that page when one for the Gipper concurred?

So go to Krueger's hotel, go to the progressive and say we need you.

And will they listen, Chuck?

Well, they the may have no choice but to listen or stay home.

Well, they will.

That is a choice.

That depends on how Curtis Hotel and the Democratic Party choose to conduct themselves.

Like if they're like, no, we're willing to listen t some of the concerns you have.

It's going to be easier.

Some concessions you get.

He's going to have to do that.

You know, he' got he's representing the party and the party is a big tent on both the Democrats and Republicans side.

As chair, you have to feel as though I'm listening to everybody and coming to the table.

But what kind of bone can you throw them?

Well, othe than to say we need your vote.

Yeah, well, that's not a bone.

You're right.

There is no meat on that thing at all.

Democrats have progressive candidates running for other offices to Eli Savit.

I mean, honestly, Curtis Hertel has got to be really pushing for him.

So he's got to be very careful.

He doesn't alienate a lot of, progressives in the state by sounding standoffish.

That's a fine line.

He has to walk.

Right?

And you guys all walk that fine line very nicely.

Here is the year we celebrate the birthday of this great country.

Thanks for tuning in.

Let's see if we were right on anything.

When we see this show.

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