On this holiday edition of OTR, we welcome freshman Republican House member Representative Joe Aragona, and we'll be talking about the Governor Whitme presidential speculation story, and more on the history making debate last week.

Around the OTR table Simon Schuster, Jordan Hermani and Rick Pluta sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the Record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible, in part by Martin Waymire, a full servic strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at MartinWaymire.com and now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Thank you very much.

Welcome to Studio C On this holiday weekend we are recording on a Tuesday, which is an all time first.

We've never been on on Tuesday, which means a lot of stuf is going to happen after today, which we aren't going to be talking about.

So we apologize for that.

But let's take a look at the story that refuses to go away.

What about Gretchen Whitme and all this presidential stuff?

Governor Gretche Whitmer's name has been in play for months as a possible presidential candidate.

Nothing new there.

But given the current president's wobbly debate performance last week, the fever over her has gone even higher.

So what is the Michigan governor saying about all this speculation?

Answer Absolutely nothing.

Instead, the governor's office did react to the debate where she ignored the president's performance and focused on denouncin former President Donald Trump.

And as expected, there was nothing about the speculation surrounding her.

Adding to this national drumbeat is the upcoming release of her first book.

And if you're lookin for some insight on this issue or the presidential thing in there, forget it.

She ignores it completely, which pretty much leaves us to examine what she has said over the past concerning this speculation, beginning with the speculation that she wanted to be vice president with Joe Biden.

You said last September, I do not want to be vice president.

That still holds, correct?

That has not changed.

Not at all.

And it won't.

Correct.

End of story.

Well, not quite.

Two years later, she finally confessed.

If he had called, if he called and offered it, would you have taken it to him?

If Joe Biden would have called and said, I need you to be my partner and be my running mate, I would have said yes.

So if that situation changed in her thinking about V.P., what her thinking change about president in 2022, she made this firm statement about the presidency in 2024.

I'm not going to run for president in 2024.

Period.

You mean it?

Yes.

Some Democrats continue to cha about finding another candidate other than Joe Biden.

So could she change her mind about not running in 2024?

You bet she could change her mind in politics, Anything, of course, is possible.

But there are absolutely no indications, repeat no indication that she even wants that chance.

So why won't this story go away?

I mean, yo look at the debate performance that we saw from Biden the other week.

He was mumbled, he stumbled his stutter clearly got the best of him.

It did not display th air of somebody who seemed like they would be fit for another four years of a presidency.

So it is natural, honestly, to for the party and voters to gravitate towards a younger seemingly more with it candidate who is able to articulate her views without sort of stumbling into a trail off sentence.

Why won't it die?

You know, I think it's just because people have hope that there's maybe something that the DN is going to do to remove Biden, then that's from a lot of, you know, voters online, social media presence of people saying that I was like people watching the debate with their head in their hands saying that we need somebody else.

It's natural that people are looking elsewhere.

The context of the Whitmer for president discussion has typically been in the 2028 cycle, and there are a lot of people who are lined up for that.

It's just, you know, right now she's in the, you know, the top three or four peopl who are discussed in that lane now because of Biden's dismal performance in the debate.

That's all been bumped up, you know, because any time you're talking about, you know, a replacement candidate, look, well, I'm saying this like it's a normal thing and it happens all the time.

So, I mean, in this unusual situation, you know, everybody who's talked about as a post Biden possibility is now been, you know, moved up into the 2024 cycle.

I think when you look at all of the anxieties that Democrats have about a Trump presidency and when you look at current polling, there's sort of this background hubbub that has always been there throughout the campaign.

And when you look at Republicans who spent years pushing the story about Biden's cognitive decline, and then you see him have, as Jordan said, he stumbles and mumbles during the debate, it sort of adds enormous amount of fuel to that fire.

I mean, you look at independent, persuadable voters who are already dejected about this election.

They're already looking for excuses.

You know, these might be moderate conservatives who are looking for an excuse to vote for Biden.

It takes away fro they have one almost less reason than they did before.

And so I think that Governor Gretchen Whitmer while she's at the top of these wish list, is not somebody who has any interest in sort of taking a sub prim opportunity to jump in the race.

She's a national co-chair of the campaign, and Democrats have a sort of solidarity, I think, amongst themselves where, you know, this is the horse they rode in on and they're necessarily... Also, if there was interest in, you know, jumping in righ now, serious interest, it would.

And I haven't seen an indications that there is that.

Because there isn't any.

You know, and why would you do that if there's this big change, you know, with with a collapse of the top of the ticket and the vice presidential nominee?

Well, the person who will b the vice presidential nominee, who is the current vice president, Kamala Harris, then there's absolutely no advantage to putting yourself in there when in that circumstance you can just say, well, you know, things have changed and a lot of people want me to do that.

And so, you know, here you are.

Well, not to mention the optics of it all, too.

I mean, you have a president, an older white man who has a black younger woman as his VP.

And the conversation has been, well what if we just jump over her, the optics coming out of the Democratic Party that that would just be abysmal.

Its a party which is already in trouble with that black base of the party.

Exactly.

So, you know, if any conversation is to be had about somebody replacing Biden it either is likely needs to be, if they want to avoid that kind of public.

You know, that needs to be Harris or frankly, another black woman because the optics again of the intersectionality they're overlooking a woman, overlooking a black woman.

It's just it's bad for them.

One of the thing that's interesting to me is that when you look at the 2020 election, there was an argument to be made for voting for Trump among moderates, traditional Republicans, that says, you know, you may not like the way he acts, his statements in public, but what you're voting for is judicial confirmations in the Senate.

You know, Mitch McConnell's coming forward and say, we've this many hundred federal judges and you're votin for an administrative apparatus that's going to move the country in a conservative direction.

And now in 2024, on the flip side, this is the argumen that a lot of people, I think, are going to be increasingly making for Joe Biden, that it's not just about one man and it's about, again, all of these things that surround the presidency and all the powers that that brings with it.

And I think when you look at the presidential immunity ruling that came down from the Supreme Court yesterday, that is just another arrow in that quiver.

It seems like they took thei sweet time getting around to it.

But this morning, I finally heard a Democratic governor talking about exactly what Simon is talking about, which is you're not just getting a president, but you are getting the team of advisers that move an agenda forward.

And you know that I maybe that'll finally be the winning message to persuade Michigan.

To dust up with the political people.

Yes, yes, yes.

We sa the true gretch to quote a line.

What was the problem with the political story?

Well, it basically showed that she had no faith in her own candidate for wha she she's the national co-chair.

She said he couldn't win in Michigan, that was the allegation, reportedly.

And she's disputing that because.

Well, no, I didn't say she said it.

That's what they reported.

Right, Right, right.

And so, you know, we have to emphasize that this is a it's a column it's an article from Politico wherein Governor Gretchen Whitmer seemed to tell somebody within the Biden campaign, you know, that Biden can' win Michigan after that debate.

To be clear, it within the context of that column, it was relayed by somebody who categorized themselves as a possible 2028 Democratic opponent against Whitmer, for the presidency.

Who had a hidden agenda to take her out.

Hidden?

But all I'm saying is is you do have to treat tha with a little bit of skepticism.

Your source is clearly inherently biased.

So, you know, there's plausible deniability there.

And I do find it a little difficult to admit that for somebody who has been so emphatically in Biden's camp this entire time, hasn't wavered, hasn't made any kind of statement that she's going to go for the presidency, that she would just after one showing, throw her hands up and say, what's it, we're done.

It would counter everything we've seen publicly.

Exactly.

And there's absolutely no reason for her to do that.

And, you know, she could say look, you've made it harder, Mr. President.

And, you know, that's that's true.

But to say that.

Well, you know, never mind.

Michigan is no longer in play.

Don't need.

me.

Right.

You know, that's I just don't think that that's and so, you know her lashing out, it makes zero sense, on social media she mentioned that you know anybody who think that the president couldn't win Michigan is a, careful.

Yeah right?

Not not sound.

Is full of....

Yes.

Feces.

Exactly.

So, you know, she's just clearly made her point, you know, to The Detroit News.

She also made a statement saying that she's 100% behind the president.

So she's very clearl trying to put this behind her.

And I you know, whether that happens, TBD, but I definitely think that she had a reason for it.

We have also been through enough presidential cycles to know that in Michigan, things just I mean, careen back and forth in terms of.

There is an eternity between now and November.

Absolutely.

Yeah, there is an eternity.

This is not a this is a moment in time that looks bad, but who knows what's around the corner.

The best thing about this debate for Joe Biden is the date on which it occurred.

Bar none.

Now look at her statement in that piece.

I will not run for president in 2024.

Just speculate.

Could she walk that back if she had to?

Yes.

Yeah.

In a heartbeat.

In a heartbeat.

The dynamics o when she said that back in 2022, I can't remember what year it was okay?

They all come together and where we are now are completely different.

So that is not a problem.

And I thin when you look at the comparison, I think all personal statements can be cast aside when you'r answering the call of service.

But that means that there has to be the call and right now there is none.

So it's this is and it's interesting.

It's interesting in the other answer that we didn't put in there in that same interview, she said if there was a call to service ten, 15 years down the road, anything is, quote, possible.

So the story will not go away.

Right.

The debate fallout in Michigan.

What are Michigan people saying about this?

Are they putting the wagons in a circle here?

I think when you look at Democrats, there's reactions ranging from the grim determination to soldier on to despondency, of course.

But if they're despondent, they're despondent behind closed doors in private.

But at the same time, I think, you know, they're wanting to, again, pivot towards policy and say that we can change the direction, the trajectory of this election, but not so much focusing on Biden himself, but all this other stuff.

But at the same time, I mean, essentially, this is a campaign without a candidate, in large part because he's not somebody who they're going to want to be putting out in front of voters on a regular basis because of these concerns.

And this unscripted, you know, sort of in anything could happen fashion.

Yeah.

Alright if you're down ticket in Michigan and you look at the top of the ticket based on where we are right now, are you worried?

I mean, you're always going to have that level of worry.

I hate to make it sound like a cop out, but I mean, you look at Governor Gretchen Whitmer, her polling has somewha remained independent of Biden.

I have to imagine that there are people that are going to go in on Election Day and just vote for the president, walk out and vote for nothing else.

So, I mean, there's always that fear whether or not that's going to materialize.

I mean.

Well, if you're if one of those six or seven or eight House swing district and you haven't after your name on the 4th of July, are you worried about not the fireworks up there but the ones at the ballot box?

Absolutely.

You know, that that that this is a this is a turnout issue.

And are people going to stay home?

Are people are you hoping that people who maybe won't vote for Biden will still show up to vote lower in the ticket?

Yeah, there is big concern.

The real thing is this is not going to be are there going to be crossover votes?

Is how many people are going to stay home after this?

You know, you brought up a really interesting point earlier about the concept of of needing to mobilize behind the concept of what a Biden presidency represents rather than Biden himself.

You know, and you also talk about people being maybe behind closed doors very afraid of what's to come.

I'm curious to see how that's going to play out over the next couple of months, because you even have people who on social media said, I didn't watch the debate, but I heard.

So Democrats are already, you know, losing a lot of ground here and.

That still exists.

This is still like for a huge swath of the electorate about individual.

And if you're Gretchen Whitmer, you're going out and campaigning for House candidates because that is definitely State House candidates.

That is definitely up for grabs.

And saying that Michigan is in play.

All the policies about abortion and health care are in play and you need to get out and vote for that, too.

All right.

Let's see what our guest has to say about all this.

Representative, come on in.

Welcome to Off the Record.

Nice to have you on the program on this holiday weekend.

Let's cut right to the chase.

You had a chance to spend $5 million on rebuilding Mount Clemens downtown and you voted no.

Explai that to the folks at home.

Sure.

There's $5 million out of an $83 billion budget.

There was plenty of waste, plenty of pork throughout this entire budget.

A lot of things that I don't think we needed to be spending money on as the government.

So I had to vote no.

So, number two.

Let me get the story straight.

You're from Macomb County.

Last time I checked, Mount Clemens is still in Macomb County.

You had a chance to help your hometown people and you voted no.

My hometown is Clinton Township.

But you are in Macomb County.

Yeah, you're right.

Yes.

But Kim, 5 million is a compared to 83 billion.

And the majority of that was waste.

I mean, I think it was 400 million.

And just pork projects alone, that's a lot of waste.

I'd love to vote for that 5 million.

I think the 5 million is going to go to a great project.

It's going to go to a housing project that we desperately need throughout the state and in Macomb County.

But 5 million to sacrifice for that 400 million with plenty of other waste?

I couldn't do it.

Jordyn?

You know, we're talking about the governorship.

I hate to pivo back to the governor potentially running for president, but this struck me the other day.

You say that does happen.

Say that that Governor Whitmer does end up going national.

Who do you see as a Republican possibility to run either in in the coming gubernatorial election or you know, if Governor Gretchen Whitmer does leav Michigan to become potentially the the Democratic presidential candidate?

Sure.

So, first of all, if she leaves, I'm still very excited about us picking up the house.

I think we still carry the house when she if she leaves.

And by the way, I think she is running for president in four years.

I don't think she'll make a good president.

However, I do applaud her for being ambitious.

I can never say that that's a bad thing.

Well done, Governor.

But as far as names, I think think we have quite a few names.

I think Eri Nesbitt is one of the talents.

I think there's a variety of business people throughout Michigan who want to take a strong look at it.

My favorite is always Candice Miller.

I keep asking her to do it.

She keeps telling me no, we'll see if I can convince her in the next four years.

We'll see.

No.

Who is the top Republican voice in Michigan representing the views of the conservative movement and the Republican Party.

Oh.

Who people will pay attention to.

In terms of at the top of the ticket?

And, well, who would be the elected official who has the gravitas and the magnetic quality, who can step up front and be the voice of the republican party?

The way that Gretchen Whitmer is the voice of the Democratic Party.

I mean, it doesn't seem like you really have someone right now considering all the problems the Republican Party has had in Michigan.

I think we have still a lot of strong voices throughout the legislature.

I think we have strong voices, Like I said even in the business community, you know, we lost the hous for the first time in decades.

Well, years anyway.

The Democrats have a trifect for the first time in decades.

I think this has been a very bonding moment for all conservatives, for all Republicans.

So I think we have a number of them that are going to start to emerge.

I think some of the freshmen, too.

Who would you point to in as a as a as a voice for the Republican Party?

Your choice from anywhere.

For the Republican Party, or for the House?

Uhm, yes.

Okay.

All right.

Fair enough.

I think we have a number of them in the house.

A good friend of mine, J.D.

Boyer from Sinclair County, very much a strong conservative, just got elected as the head of the Conservatives Caucus within the House of Representatives.

Very salient arguments fo a variety of different things, very dynamic.

Speaker I think you're going to see him emerging over the years.

Mike Hoadley is one, you know he's he's I think, has the ear of many of the strong conservatives on the right as far as around the state.

You know, I think there's there's a number of them.

You know, I go back to Candace Miller again she's she's she might not pick up the hard right, but she can very much galvanize the Republican when she comes out and speaks.

When you look at Macomb County, you know, which is where your district is located, this is going to be important territory for in the presidential election in November.

Do you see this debate factoring into any of that messaging?

Oh, yeah.

Yeah.

This debate was atrocious for President Biden.

And Macomb County is one of those places that likes to see a strong leader.

They want to see you.

All right.

We elected you.

Take charge.

Let me see what you did.

Show me what you've done.

Biden could not do that.

I think it's I think that the Democrats realize they're in trouble with him at the top.

Of the ticket.

How do you translate that down ballot, though, when you look at sort of Democrats are willing to take middle of the road positions, things that can convince people who might even be in a union shop or, you know, part of organized labor, but tilt conservative How do you bring them on board if they might not necessarily agree with how the former president speaks about certain issues?

I think they're already on board.

They're going to the grocery store and seeing inflation because the Democrats printed a bunch of money and spent billions of dollars and now all of a sudden it's pretty hard to afford.

Groceries are a lot harder fo groceries, a lot harder for gas.

They want somebody who can bring jobs in.

They want to bring down inflation.

They want to see our GDP go up across the nation.

And I think they're abou to vote Republican in November.

In Michigan, though, we have seen inflation level off.

I think nationwide you're seeing it go up.

It's still going up.

It's been going up for years.

You can't print billions of dollars, spend it and then expect there to be no effect on inflation.

Well, inflating the inflation rate is not 8% anymore.

It's around 3 to 4.

Okay.

But it's continued.

How many?

How many months?

How many years?

And we have it up around 8%.

That didn't just go away.

That didn't go away.

And all of a sudden now we have 4% in.

Everything's fine.

Things are still inflated.

Have wages Gone up?

No.

All right.

Let's assume that your party takes back the majority.

Want to be majority floor leader.

Sure.

Why?

I think I think we need somebody who can bring some decorum back to the House floor.

I think you haven't seen tha for the last year.

And a half.

I... Can you expand on that?

You say no decorum on the House floor.

I'm curious what you mean.

We had a majority floor leader who turned around and tried to pump up the crowd, if you will, in the gallery.

That shouldn't happen.

That's not that's not proper debate on the House floor.

I guess I' not just playing to the crowd.

I have not seen that, though, I guess what you're talking about Representative Aiyash, correct?

What what issue was that?

I don't guess I'm I can't remember.

Believe it was right to work.

Right to work.

Don't don't hold me to that.

But I believe in the right to work.

When the right to work was adopted there was a crowd in the in the gallery as well.

I'm sorry.

When right to work was adopted, I was there.

There was a crowd in the gallery as well raising up a ruckus.

So I was there too and we had a great floor leader at the time, Jim Thomas.

And he didn't turn around.

He didn't acknowledge the crowd.

He wen about the business of the house and he got things done.

That's it.

All right.

You don't you don't play to the crowd.

Besides decorum, okay which the average voter at home probably doesn't give a hoo about.

Would you concede that?

I would.

Okay.

All right.

So why why you floor leader?

I've done my best to lead on plenty of issues.

I've done my best to help lead the freshman caucus.

I am hyper focused.

Let me put it this way.

I'm hyper focused on getting back majority.

If I thought for one secon that any type of leadership race will get in the way, that I wouldn't do it.

The caucus has to come first.

Majority has to com first for the good of Michigan.

But I believe that my caucus sees m as somebody who leads on issues.

I'm always willing to sit down and talk to them, even if we disagree.

I think they want somebod who will lead and won't placate.

But even if you disagree, well, at least show them respect.

Are you willing to work with the other side?

Do you have any Democratic friends you will work with?

We're going to have to to work with the other side.

We're going to take back the House.

But the Senate is still going to be a Democratic majority and Governor Whitmer is still going to be governor for another two years.

Can I ask you a question about...

In that regard, I mean, we and you look at Congress, you have a Republican House and a Democratic Senate with a Democratic president.

Approval rating for Congress in this country are hovering around, I think, about 10%.

And how do you like what's achievable for you other than obstructionism and gridlock.

In terms of what issue?

Policy, the budget?

Yeah, I again, I think we can work across the aisle.

I do have a number of friends over there that I think are willin to reach back across the aisle.

You see a lot of gridlock in Washington.

You're right.

There's I hope a lo more politicians in Washington than there are in Lansing.

I think there's hopefully more public servants.

But is there something you'd like to get done right now that you could point to with a Republican majority in the House.

In terms of goals for the next two years?

Yeah.

I'd love to bring down the income tax.

I don't think that's going to be realistic with a Democratic Senate, but we're sure we're going to give it a hard try.

You're the top Republican on the housing committee.

Is there any place and which is a huge problem in the state and across the country, Is there any place that you could point to where there is room for Democratic Republican consensus to provide more affordable housing?

Yeah there's actually a bill package that I have worked on with my counterpart, Christian Grant.

So I think there's a number of ideas that will be bipartisan on the housing issue.

The the Republicans see that that, you know, we should we should build more housing and we want to kind of reduce regulation.

Often the Democratic side says, well, let's let's appropriate dollars to try and subsidize low income housing.

I think in the middle there is some area to work where we can say, all right, you know, let's let's incentivize housing and maybe it can be a high density or something of that nature.

But let's try and incentivize builders to build housing that's not just mini mansions if you will.

Representative is your bounty legislation dead on arrival when you introduce it on July 31st?

I don't think so.

$4,500 in taxpayer money for a very nice coffee maker that I can afford.

$11,000 for our first first class trip to Europe.

Again, taxpayer mone all out of a $20 million grant that was overseen by one of Governor Whitmer's political friends.

You should explain, though, to do what.

You want to pay reporters.

You want to pay reporters for finding this stuff out.

I want to pay reporters.

I want to give them a bounty.

Money will be exchanged.

Yeah.

A bounty.

We're not going to pay them.

New York tried to expect I think they actually appropriated about $30 million just to pay reporters.

I don't want to pay reporters, NPR pays reporters.

You know, I don't want to I don't want to do that.

This is a bounty system.

Silicon valley does it?

They use bug bounties, right?

I have a program.

I want you to break it because I want to know how it can be broken.

I'll pay you if you do.

You might overestimate how much we're paid when you look at the.

Scale.

But also interest in bounties.

I want to return to legislation.

Just very, very quickly, the Senate recently just passed historic piece of bipartisan legislation FOIA reform.

Yeah, it' going to come over to the House.

Yeah.

Wher where are you at on that?

It's.

It's dead on arrival.

It's dead on arrival?

Do you do you also, Governor Whitmer said that she would do this without legislation six years ago.

I'll make you a deal You want to stay for overtime?

Sure.

All right.

You guys in?

Yeah.

All right, let's go to close credits, come back for more overtime with our representative.

Go to wkar.org, see you there.

Production of Off the Record is made possible, in part, by Martin Waymire, a full servic strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at MartinWaymire.com.

For more Off the Record, visit WKAR.org.

Michigan Public television stations have contributed to the production costs of Off the Record.