WELCOME BACK.

THE REPUBLICAN RACE FOR GOVERNOR IN MICHIGAN JUST GOT TIGHTER.

ON THE OTR PANEL SIMON SCHUSTER, JORDYN HERMANI AND DAVID BOUCHER.

SITTING WITH US AS WE GET THE INSIDE OUT "OFF THE RECORD".

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH AND WELCOME TO THE ON FRIDAY MORNING AS WE DO ANOTHER EDITION OF "OFF THE RECORD."

NICE TO HAVE YOU ONBOARD.

NEW NUMBERS IN THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARY, WE HAVE A HORSE RACE.

>> WHAT IS INFORMATIVE ABOUT THIS POLL IS IT SHOWS AND CONFIRMS FROM WHAT WE HEARD LAST WEEK FROM THE DETROIT FREE PRESS PAUL IS THIS RACE IS WIDE OPEN.

WE KNOW DEFINITIVELY THERE ISN'T A LEADER AND LAST WEEK WAS A THREE WAY STATISTICAL TIE AND THIS WEEK WE ARE VIRGIN AT FORT.

I THINK THE ONE THING WE KNOW FOR SURE ABOUT THE RANKING OF THE CANDIDATES IS A REPRIMAND IS LAGGING BEHIND THE OTHERS.

HE'S OUTSIDE THE MARGIN OF ERROR IN BOTH OF THESE POLLS.

>> 40 PERCENT UNDECIDED BECAUSE, THAT'S A REAL WINNER.

>> ONLY GOOD FOR WITMER AT THIS POINT.

THE LONGER THE REPUBLICANS AND OUT WITH A FRONT RUNNER TO COALESCE BEHIND.

SOMEBODY COALESCED BEHIND WHERE ALL OF THESE CANDIDATES ARE RUNNING TOPICAL.

THEY ARE RUNNING ON VOTER FRAUD, JUST SORT OF THESE TALKING POINTS THAT REPUBLICANS HAVE BEEN HEADING OUT OVER AND OVER.

WE DON'T KNOW WHO THESE CANDIDATES ARE END VOTERS DON'T KNOW WHO THESE CANDIDATES ARE.

THE LONGER THAT GOES ON THE LESS YOU CAN MAKE AN ARGUMENT AS ONE OF THESE PEOPLE.

THE LESS YOU CAN MAKE THAT ARGUMENT OF I'M A FULLY FLESHED OUT PERSON AND, YES, I CAN TAKE ON GOVERNOR WITMER AND I DO HAVE IDEALS OUTSIDE OF THESE HOT BUTTON POINTS.

>> ITS FASCINATING ON TV FIVE WEEKS OUT FROM A PRIMARY DEBATE -- -- A LECTION AND THE LEADING CANDIDATE IS PULLING AT 15 PERCENT?

TO YOUR POINT NOT ONLY US OR NOT A FRONT RUNNER ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN.

I DON'T THINK WE REFEREE BRETT IS GOING TO SUDDENLY SURGE BUT HE COULD.

HE'S NOT OUT SIDE.

I THINK THE DIXON CAMPAIGN IS RELIEVED THEY STARTED TO FINALLY BUMP BUMP.

WE HAVE SEEN THEM STILL STATUS BY GETTING NICOLETTE FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP WHEN HE CAME TO MICHIGAN.

THEY START TO BUMP UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAT SHE HAD BEEN.

PULLING OUT 5 PERCENT NOW THIS ONE HAS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN SHE HAD BEEN.

NOBODY CAN FEEL SAFE, OR GREAT ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE AND THERE'S A LOT OF WORK THAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW.

>> IT'S AMAZING WHAT $225,000 CAN DO FOR YOU IN THE DETROIT MARKET.

IT TOOK A TUTOR DIXON TO TUTOR WHO.

IF YOU LOOK AT THE REST OF THE STATE SHE'S AROUND 5 PERCENT, ALMOST CLOSE TO GOOD REVERENT IN THE RACE.

WHO'S GOING TO BREAK OUT?

>> THIS IS A RACE WHERE NAME ID WILL HAVE AN OUTSIZED ROLE.

THIS IS WHERE WE START TO SEE DISTINCTION BETWEEN TWO GROUPS OF CANDIDATES.

WE HAVE RICCI AND DIXON CONTINUING TO SPEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MONEY OTHER THAT'S NOT DIXON'S CAMPAIGN.

THEN YOU HAVE THE OTHER THREE CANDIDATES WHO ARE NOT SPENDING SIGNIFICANT MONEY ON TV WHATSOEVER.

I TALKED TO CONSULTANTS AND THEY SAY THEY ARE KNOCKING DOORS AND PEOPLE WHO DON'T KNOW WHO THESE CANDIDATES ARE.

>> CAN YOU BLAME THEM WITH THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO ARE STILL IN THIS RACE AND STILL TRYING TO MAKE IT AS THOUGH THEY ARE THE PERSON TO BE?

PERSONALLY I THINK IT'S GOING TO COME DOWN TO DIXON AND RICKY AS YOUR FRONT RUNNERS ONCE THIS IDEA AROUND KELLY AND THE WHOLE FBI AND HIM ON JANUARY 6.

WAS THAT GUYS DON'T I DON'T THINK WE WILL KEEP SEEING HIS NUMBERS AS TRENDY AS THEY ARE MOSTLY BECAUSE WE DON'T SEE HIM IN THE MEDIA.

HE WAS ONE OF THE ONLY CANDIDATES GOING TO THE MACKINAC POLICY CONFERENCE TO DEBATE.

HE SEEMS TO BE INTERESTED IN BEING ON MEDIA AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL BUT NOT REALLY INTEGRATING IN WITH VOTERS DOWN AT THE GRASSROOTS OUTSIDE OF SMALLER EVENTS.

THAT'S NOT GOING TO BOOST YOUR NAME RECOGNITION.

ONCE YOU ARE OUT OF HEADLINES FOR THIS JANUARY 6 DOT FOUR WAS THE HEADLINES MOVE ON WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO SHOW FOR IT?

SPEED.

>> IT'S INTERESTING WHEN JACK CRAIG WAS STILL IN THE RACE, CAR YOU SAW GARRETT'S O'DONNELL PULLING FREQUENTLY IN THE SECOND OR THIRD SPOT.

NOW IN THE FIELD HAS CLEARED SUBSTANTIALLY HE'S PULLING THAT 8 PERCENT.

THAT'S GOT TO BE CONCERNING FOR THE SOLE VINYL CAMPAIGN DESPITE THEM GOING ON CAN TO ADVERTISEMENTS AND IN OTHER POLLS LEADING -- THE MACKINAC DEBATE.

IT'S GOTTA BE CONCERNING TO START FALLING A LITTLE BIT.

>> TWO COMMENTS.

OF THE TUTOR DIXON COMMERCIAL IN MOTOWN HAD A PICTURE OF SHE AND DONALD DONALD TRUMP TOGETHER.

HE HAS NOT ENDORSED OR BUT IF HE DIDN'T KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT POLITICS HE WOULD LOOK AT THAT AND SAY DONALD TRUMP LIKES TUTOR DIXON.

NICELY DONE.

KEVIN RICKY, WHO GOT A LETTER OF FLACK FOR THE ZOMBIE ADD, MUST BE SMILING BECAUSE THIS HAS WORKED PERFECTLY.

HE HAS A BUZZ ABOUT THE AD.

THAT'S WHAT YOU WANT, PEOPLE TALKING ABOUT THAT AND EVEN IF IT'S NEGATIVE.

AT LEAST GET MY NAME OUT THERE AND DOESN'T HAVE A LEG UP IN THE TRI-COUNTY AREA WITH THAT RICCI CAR NAME?

>> HE IS A LEG UP BY HAVING A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF MONEY HE CAN USE AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT.

TUTOR DIXON COULD HAVE THE BOSS MONEY COMING IN BUT THERE IS THERE'S A DISCUSSION ABOUT THAT.

>> WHAT IS THE DISCUSSION?

>> MAYBE PUT THE MONEY AND, MAYBE YOU DON'T.

IT'S EASIER TO SPEND OWN MONEY THAN SOMEONE ELSE'S MONEY.

YOU CAN SEE DIVORCE GET IN OR ANYBODY ELSE WHO HAS ENDORSED TUTOR DIXON BUT WHEN RICCI WANTS TO AND HE MIGHT STILL HE CAN SPEND THE $10 MILLION HE HAS TALKED ABOUT.

PUT HIMSELF ON TV AND INTRODUCE HIMSELF TO VOTERS AND SAY THIS IS WHO I AM AND THAT CAN GO A LONG WAY IN A RACE WHERE 46 PERCENT OF THESE PRIMARY VOTERS ARE UNDECIDED.

>> YOU HAVE TO QUESTION THE DIVORCE MONEY AND HOW MUCH THEY ARE ESTABLISHED IN THAT GRAND RAPIDS MARKET.

SHE'S PULLING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THERE.

THAT COULD THEORETICALLY PUT HER IN A COMPETITIVE SPOT WITH HIM AND I THINK WITHOUT THAT BACKING YOU DO RUN THE RISK OF SAYING SHE'S WELL KNOWN IN ONE PORTION OF THE STATE BUT IF YOU CAN'T FUND TO GET THAT NAME OUT, CAN'T COMPETE SOMEBODY LIKE RICCI -- NAME RECOGNITION ONLY GOES SO FAR.

>> DON'T KID YOURSELF, DIVORCE KNOWS MY NAME ID.

WHEN DICK DEVOS STARTED AT GOVERNOR HE STARTED AT 3 PERCENT.

NOT EVEN RELATIVES KNEW WHO HE WAS.

$20 MILLION LATER DICK DIVORCE WAS A HOUSEHOLD NAME.

IT CAN BE DONE.

>> CERTAINLY.

IN TERMS OF MESSAGING, THEY ARE IN A TOUGH SPOT.

CARDS ARE HELD CLOSE TO THE CHEST BECAUSE THEY ARE COGNIZANT OF ONE, A PORTION OF THE BASE NOT READY TO MOVE ON FROM 2020.

THEY ARE FACING A POTENTIAL MATCH UP AGAINST A GOVERNOR WHO HAS PROVEN SHE IS ADEPT AT PLAYING TO THE MIDDLE.

THEY HAVE TO FIND A MESSAGE THAT DOESN'T NECESSARILY SAY I THINK THERE WAS WIDESPREAD IN FRONT OF THE 2020 ELECTION.

THAT I THINK A BIG ISSUES, A TEST 12.

THE BASE IS CONTENT TO LISTEN AND THEY ARE RADIOACTIVE TOPICS THAT MIGHT SINK THEM.

>> HAS ANYBODY SEEN EVERY EVIDENCE OF JAMES CRAIG SINCE HE ANNOUNCED HIS CAMPAIGN?

>> I GOT A PRESS RELEASE SAYING HE WAS A WRITE IN CANDIDATE WHICH WE ALL KNEW ALREADY.

>> WAS IT TWO PARAGRAPHS OR ONE?

>> NO CONTACT INFORMATION FOR FOLLOW-UP BUT WE GOT THE PRESS RELEASE.

IF YOU ARE WRITING CANDIDATE AND LOOKING FOR THE SHOCK OF THE DARK AND LOOKING FOR THE DARK HORSE LANE IN THE RACE.

A RACE WHERE YOU ARE FIVE WEEKS OUT AND THE LEADING CANDIDATE IS GETTING 50 PERCENT ISN'T A BAD SCENARIO TO BE IN.

NOT A GREAT SCENARIO BUT STILL COULD BE WORSE.

>> THAT'S EXACTLY WAS GOING ON IN THE JOHNSON KEPT CAMP.

THEY WERE LOOKING AT THE POLLING DATA AND MY SOURCES TELL ME THEY HAD NEW STUFF COMING THIS WEEK THAT THEY LOOKED AT AND WITH A HUGE UNDECIDED ABOUT THIS GUY I THINK HE IS THINKING PRIVATELY I COULD ACTUALLY DO THIS.

I COULD SPEND $7 MILLION TO $12 MILLION AND GET MY NAME IS A WRITE IN CANDIDATE.

IT'S A LONGSHOT BUT DOES HE PULL THE TRIGGER OR NOT?

>> I WOULD SAY WELL CAMPAIGNS MONEY MATTERS A LOT SODAS INFRASTRUCTURE.

THAT'S WHY I'M SKEPTICAL.

WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANY INFRASTRUCTURE.

PERRY JOHNSON HAS PROVEN HE SOMEONE WHO CAN GET AN ORGANIZATION TOGETHER QUICKLY ENTER STAFF ON HAND AND KEEP THEM AND IT SORT OF PUT TOGETHER A CONCERTED EFFORT.

HE SPENT ALMOST $5 MILLION WHICH IS TWICE ON ADVERTISING.

HE HAS NAME RECOGNITION GOING INTO THE PRIMARY ELECTION AND THAT COULD BENEFIT HIM.

HE HAS A LEG UP ON THE CANDIDATES.

>> THE OTHER QUESTION, I MEAN, WHEN WE WERE AT THE NOMINATING -- YES, THE NOMINATING CONVENTION IN GRAND RAPIDS -- THERE WAS A CONCERTED EFFORT BY THE REPUBLICAN PARTY TO SORT OF TIE JOHNSON WITH THE AG SOS CANDIDATES.

IT ALMOST SEEM I THINK OF THE TIME THEY JOKINGLY -- AT LEAST JOHNSON REFER TO THEM AS THE QUALITY TICKET.

IF HE'S GOING TO LAUNCH A WRITE IN CAMPAIGN, WHICH MOON SHOT, A MASSIVELY UPHILL CLIMB FOR ANYBODY, I MEAN, YOU ALSO HAVE TO WONDER IF THERE WOULD BE ANY EFFORT FROM THE PARTY WHO HAS SOMEWHAT SHOWN THEY LIKE HIM AS A CANDIDATE.

>> I DON'T THINK HE CARES.

I THINK HE DOES WHATEVER HE WANTS TO DO, WHICH IS WHAT BILLIONAIRES DO.

>> POTENTIAL -- IT IT'S TOO SOUNDS LIKE A GREAT WAY FOR SOMEONE TO LOSE $10 MILLION.

>> I THINK THAT'S A PART OF THE DISCUSSION GOING ON INSIDE THE FAMILY.

>> IF YOUR NAME IS ON THE BELL AND YOU SPENT $10 MILLION I WOULD TAKE THAT TEN OUT OF TEN OVER PERRY JOHNSON SPENDING $10 MILLION.

COMPLETE MOONSHOT.

COULD HE DO IT?

CERTAINLY.

IS THE ENVIRONMENT NOT AS TERRIBLE AS IT COULD FOR A WRITING CANDIDATE?

DEFINITELY.

WOULD I BE COMFORTABLE SPENDING A LOT OF MONEY ON THAT?

ABSOLUTELY NOT SWEET WE WILL SEE WHAT HE DOES.

I THINK HE MAKES A DECISION SOON BECAUSE AS A SET OF THE SHOW LAST WEEK THE WINDOW IS GETTING CLOSE AND YOU GOTTA GET OUT THERE AND DO SOMETHING RATHER THAN THINK ABOUT IT.

>> THEY ARE VOTING RIGHT NOW.

THE TIME TO MAKE THAT DECISION ARGUABLY WAS THREE WEEKS AGO.

PEOPLE ARE SITTING IN BALLOTS NOW AND NOT SEND THEM IN WITH PERRY JOHNSON'S NAME.

>> I AGREE AND WHAT IS SURPRISING TO ME IS THESE CANDIDATES ARE NOT CAMPAIGNING.

THEY ARE PICKING UP ENDORSEMENTS WHILE PEOPLE HAVE GOTTEN THEIR BALLOTS AND THAT'S WHAT SURPRISING.

>> PERRY JOHNSON HAS ONE OTHER PROBLEM.

HE WANTS TO SEND OUT STICKERS WITH HIS NAME ON IT.

IF YOU PUT THE STICKERS ON YOUR BALLOT THEY COULD GUM UP THE TABULATING MACHINES WHICH COULD SHUT THEM DOWN AND OF THE CLERKS AROUND THE STATE ARE GOING ALL MY GOODNESS THIS IS A NIGHTMARE WAITING TO HAPPEN AND OF THE VOTE IS NOT COUNTED.

>> THAT'S NOT UNHEARD OF.

THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO RUN IN MASSACHUSETTS AS STICKER CANDIDATES.

THIS IS NOT A PROBLEM THAT IS UNIQUE TO MICHIGAN, PUTTING A STICKER ON A BALLOT IS NOT NECESSARILY A HUGE ISSUE.

IS NOT SOMETHING SUPER COMMON IN MICHIGAN EITHER.

IF THE CLERKS ARE NERVOUS, ESPECIALLY IN A PRIMARY WHERE SOME OF THE CANDIDATES ARE RUNNING ON PRODUCTION OF VOTER FRAUD OR QUESTIONS ABOUT VOTER FRAUD OR ABOUT HOW YOUR TABULATING BALANCE, THAT COULD RAISE EMOTIONS.

>> THE ABORTION ISSUE WE FIND THE REPUBLICAN OF MICHIGAN HAS INTRODUCED LEGISLATION MAKING IT A BIG CRIME TO DO SOMETHING.

>> TO GET -- TO PERFORM AN ABORTION.

IF YOU'RE AN INDIVIDUAL SEEKING AN ABORTION YOU WOULD NOT BE PROSECUTED IN THIS BILL BUT FOR DOCTORS YOU WOULD GET TEN YEARS FOR ANYONE PRODUCING ABORTION INDUCING DRUGS.

YOU CAN GET 20 YEARS MAXIMUM IN BOTH CASES.

THERE WOULD BE A CAVEAT FOR ABORTIONS THAT WOULD SAVE THE LIFE OF THE MOTHER HOWEVER THAT WOULD NOT TAKE INTO EFFECT MENTAL HEALTH ISSUES.

IF YOU HAD A WOMAN SAYING I'M PREGNANT IF I DON'T GET THIS ABORTION I WILL POTENTIALLY COMMIT SUICIDE, THAT WOULD NOT BE FACTORED IN UNDER THAT.

IT IS A HYPER RESTRICTIVE LAW WHICH EFFECTIVELY WOULD BAN ABORTION CARTE BLANCHE IF NOT CAUSE A CHILLING EFFECT.

>> WITH ALL DUE RESPECT TO THE SPONSORS OF THE LONGELO SOLUTION, ONE WORD VETOES VETO.

>> CERTAINLY.

THIS IS A HUGE POLITICAL GIFT TO DEMOCRATS AND THEN ANYONE PRO-CHOICE WHO WANT TO TURN OUT IN NOVEMBER.

IT'S CLEAR THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL.

THEY HAD THE MONEY GET ON THE BALLOT AND THIS IS GOING TO BE -- I THINK IT'S SAFE TO SAY GIVE HER THIS PENDING RULING FROM THE SUPREME COURT -- A DRIVER OF TURN OUT IN THE NOVEMBER ELECTION AND BECAUSE IT'S A BECAUSE ADDITIONAL AMENDED THAT'S A TRUMP CARD FOR ANY LEGISLATION.

>> THE ONE X FACTOR HERE IS ONE OF THE CHIEF JUSTICE MANEUVERS A COMPROMISE WHICH KEEPS THE OUTLINE OF ROE V WADE AND WE CAN'T SAY WE REPEALED IT BUT WE PLAY AROUND THE EDGES.

DOES NOT TAKE THE EDGE OFF AT THE ALLEGED SUPPORT THAT THE DEMOCRATS HOPE TO GET TO THE POLLS?

>> I DON'T THINK IT DOESN'T ALL.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS -- -- >> IT'S NOT THE SAME STORY.

THEY DIDN'T REPEAL ROE V WADE.

>> THEY DIDN'T BUT THERE'S NEW RESTRICTIONS.

THE REASON WHY I THINK IT'S SOMETHING THAT WOULD KEEP PEOPLE AT HOME IN THE FALL IS REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS IF SOMETHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN AT THE LEGISLATURE.

WE HAVE SEEN THIS BILL.

THE DEMOCRATS PUSH TO REPEAL THE 1930 WENT DORMANT ON THE BOOKS BUT THIS QUESTIONS WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE NEEDS TO CHANGE IN GENERAL PICK OF.

THERE'S GOING TO BE THIS CAMPAIGN GOING ON WITH THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT BUT THE LEGISLATURE IS GOING TO FACE HER OWN QUESTIONS.

THE GOVERNOR VETOES ANYTHING SHE DOESN'T LIKE BUT IT PUTS NEW PRESSURE ON THE GOVERNOR'S RACE BECAUSE REPUBLICANS MIGHT WANT TO HAVE SOMEBODY WHO MIGHT VETO A BILL.

IT WILL PUT PRESSURE ON DEMOCRATIC HOUSE RACES AND THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.

I THINK WE WILL SEE MORE FIGHTING NOT LESS REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE SUPREME COURT DOES.

>> EVEN SHORT OF IT SOMETHING LESS THAN A REPEAL OF ROE V WADE.

IT WILL LIGHT A FIRE IN MY OPINION UNDER LIBERAL LEANING VOTERS BECAUSE OF THE FACT IT PROVES ABORTION CAN BE AN ISSUE, THAT THIS IS -- THE FACT WE ARE SITTING HERE AND THE SUPREME COURT COULD DECIDE TODAY, WHICH IS A SENTENCE I'VE NEVER THOUGHT I WOULD SAY IN MY LIFE.

THE IDEA THAT A COURT DECISION THAT HAS BEEN AROUND LONGER THAN I HAVE BEEN ALIVE COULD BE OVERTURNED IS NOW A FEAR THAT IS INSTILLED IN VOTERS WHO ARE PRO-CHOICE TO KNOW THAT NOT ANYTHING SHORT OF FIGHTING FULL FORCE COULD POTENTIALLY MEAN A LOSS OF SPEECH WHAT THEY'RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IS DOES THE ABORTION ISSUE TRUMP THE INFLATION ISSUE.

AT THIS RATE INFLATION PROBABLY RESONATES WITH MORE PEOPLE THAN ABORTION BUT THE DEMOCRATS ARE HOPING THAT THINGS WILL BE AROUND.

LET'S GO ON STEVE MITCHELL.

GOOD MORNING.

YOU ARE IN MARQUETTE, CORRECT?

>> THAT'S CORRECT.

>> HOW MANY INCHES OF SNOW DO THEY HAVE?

>> IT WAS 92 HERE YESTERDAY.

WE NEVER GET 92 IN MARQUETTE.

>> MR. MITCHELL, WHAT SHOULD WE TAKE AWAY FROM THIS POLL?

GIVE ME THE TV HEADLINE.

>> THE TV HEADLINE IS THERE IS A DEAD HEAT IN THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR.

THREE CANDIDATES.

BUT ONE CANDIDATE TUTOR DIXON SEEMS TO BE SURGING.

SHE WENT FROM 5 PERCENT AND EPIC-MRA PULLED OUT A COUPLE WEEKS AGO INTO A TIE AT 15/15 WITH KEVIN RICCI AND A 13 WITH RYAN KELLY.

IT'S A DIRECT RESULT OF ABOUT A QUARTER MILLION AD BUY SHE DID IN DETROIT.

IN ALL THE OTHER TV MARKETS SHE IS AVERAGING ABOUT 7 PERCENT BUT IN DETROIT SHE IS LEADING WITH 28 PERCENT OF THE VOTE.

KEVIN RICCI HAS 18 AND RYAN KELLY HAS 8 PERCENT.

IT REALLY HAS BEEN A EFFECTIVE AD BECAUSE THAT'S NOT A BIG ADD BY AND SHE IS TIED WITH DONALD TRUMP AND DONALD TRUMP IS A VERY POPULAR PRESIDENT AMONG REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.

>> HOW ARE THE 40 PER 7 PERCNT OF PEOPLE WHO DID NOT.

CANDIDATE BREAK?

>> IT'S HARD TO SAY BUT THEY GENERALLY BREAK THE SAME WAY THE RACE IS RACES GOING.

I SUSPECT THAT 47 PERCENT IS HOLDING ONTO THEIR BALLOTS AND TRYING TO SEE MORE ABOUT THE CAMPAIGN BEFORE THEY ACTUALLY SEND IN THEIR ABSENTEE BALLOTS.

I THINK ULTIMATELY THE CANDIDATE WITH THE MOST MOMENTUM HAS A REAL OPPORTUNITY.

ONE THING I HAVE SEEN BEEN INVOLVED WITH POLITICS AS LONG AS I HAVE IS THAT WHEN YOU'VE GOT ONE WOMAN AGAINST A SHIELD OF MEN THAT WOMAN HAS A REAL OPPORTUNITY.

IF YOU TAKE A LOO AT JENNIFER GRANHOLM, GRETCHEN WITMER, WHENEVER THERE IS A SAFE SINGLE FEMALE IN THE RACE WITH A BUDGET BECAUSE THE WOMAN CANDIDATE HAS A REAL OPPORTUNITY.

>> ON THAT POINT IT HAS BEEN SAID BEFORE THAT SHOULD REPUBLICANS RUN DIXON IT WOULD GIVE THEM A LEG UP IN THE SENSE THAT IT MAKES IT HARDER FOR WITMER TO SAY ON ABORTION I'M A WOMAN YOUR MAN YOU DON'T KNOW ABOUT THIS TOPIC.

IF YOU ARE RUNNING DIXON BUT SHE CAN'T DO THAT.

IN YOUR PULLING WHAT YOU'RE HEARING FROM PEOPLE, WHY ARE WE NOT SEEING DIXON CARTER POTENTIALLY MORE SUPPORT FROM THE BASE WHEN THE PARTY SPECIFICALLY WHEN SHE DOES HAVE SOMETHING THAT THESE OTHER CANDIDATES DON'T HAVE AND THAT'S THE ABILITY TO USE HER GENDER IF NECESSARY.

>> THE REASON YOU HAVEN'T HEARD ANYTHING IS SHE HAS NOT BEEN A UP IN THE YEAR.

WE HAVE KEVIN RICCI WHO SPENT $2 MILLION TO $3 MILLION CAP ERIE JOHNSON EVEN MORE.

BUT THE MINUTE SHE WENT UP WITH ADVERTISING IS WHEN HER NUMBERS BEGAN TO MOVE AND THAT'S WHEN SHE SURGED IN THE DETROIT MEDIA AND MOVING UP TO FIRST PLACE BY TEN POINTS OVER KEVIN RICCI.

IT'S A MATTER OF MONEY WITH THE ENDORSEMENT OF THE DIVORCE FAMILY COUPLED WITH MICHIGAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE.

THOSE ARE VERY BIG ENDORSEMENTS SPEECH WHAT I'M CURIOUS ABOUT IS TO WHAT EXTENT IS THIS POTENTIALLY TOO LITTLE TOO LATE?

THE FIRST QUESTION I'M SEEING IN THE SURVEY'S RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING 12 PERCENT HAVE ALREADY VOTED.

IN YOUR OPINION IS A SOMEBODY MISUNDERSTANDING OR ARE WE SEEING PEOPLE ON THE CUSP OF GETTING BALLOTS AND RETURNING THEM BEFORE THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO SORT OF BE SATURATED BY THESE ADS?

>> BY THE WAY, ARE AMONG THOSE VOTERS ACTUALLY TUTOR DIXON WAS LEADING AMONG THAT 12 PERCENT WHO HAVE ALREADY SENT IN THEIR BALLOTS.

IT'S A GOOD WAY TO DETERMINE HOW THE CANDIDATES ARE DOING AMONG THOSE WHO ARE VOTING AT THAT POINT.

DIXON WAS LEADIN WITH THAT GROUP OF VOTERS.

>> WHAT IS THE NUMBER TO BE IN THE PRIMARY?

IS THE REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL NOMINEE GOING TO WIN WITH 30 PERCENT?

32 PERCENT?

WHAT DO YOU THINK IT TAKES FOR THAT PERSON TO WIN SPEECH I THINK YOU ARE LOOKING AT 35, 36, 37 PERCENT CAN DO IT.

WHEN CANDIDATE GETS MORE THAN THAT BUT IT'S NOT GOING TO TAKE THAT MUCH.

YOU HAVE A FIVE PERSON FIELD, NOT REALLY A FOREPERSON FIELD BECAUSE RALPH REBRANDED IS NOT PULLING VERY WELL.

YOU HAVE A THREE-PERSON FIELD.

IF ITS SPLIT CAR 36, 37, 38, WHEN IT.

>> HOW IS TUTOR DIXON DOING WITH REPUBLICAN WOMEN OR INDEPENDENT WOMEN?'S.

>> SURPRISINGLY SHE'S DOING BETTER WITH MEN THAN WOMEN.

SHE IS DOING ABOUT EIGHT OR 9 PERCENT BETTER WITH MEN ACCORDING TO THE POLE THAT WE JUST DID.

I WANT TO RETURN TO A COUPLE POINTS THAT WERE MADE DURING YOUR CONVERSATION AS IT RELATES TO THE GENERAL ELECTION.

THE ONE THING THAT WAS SURPRISING IS I HAVE SET FROM DAY ONE THAT THE ONLY DIFFICULTIES REPUBLICANS WOULD HAVE IS IF ROE V WADE WERE OVERTURNED.

IN FACT ALMOST ALL THE POLLING SHOWS THIS IS NOT A FACTOR RIGHT NOW.

NOT NEARLY AS MUCH A FACTOR AS INFLATION.

THE PROBLEM YOU HAVE WHEN YOUR PARTY IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE IS THAT YOU'VE GOT TO DEAL WITH AN ALBATROSS AROUND YOUR NECK IF THE PRESIDENT IS UNPOPULAR.

TAKE A LOOK AT PHIL MURPHY.

PHIL MURPHY IN NEW JERSEY RUNNING FOR REELECTION ALMOST LOST TO A CANDIDATE THAT NO ONE THOUGHT HAD ANY CHANCE AT ALL.

AT THAT TIME PRESIDENT BIDEN'S JOB APPROVAL NATIONALLY WAS 43 PERCENT.

RIGHT NOW IT IS 39 PERCENT.

BIDEN IS THE SINGULAR MOST UNPOPULAR PRESIDENTS AT THIS TIME IN HIS PRESIDENCY GOING BACK TO WORLD WAR II.

WITH INFLATION AND THESE OTHER ISSUES THIS IS GOING TO BE A WAVE ELECTION FOR THE REPUBLICANS IN THE SAME SENSE THAT IT WAS IN 2018 WITH DONALD TRUMP.

A VERY UNPOPULAR PRESIDENT THEN PICK ANOTHER.

THE PROBLEM THAT ALL DEMOCRATS HAVE IS BIDEN IS THE PRESIDENT AND THAT PRESIDENT IS NOT VERY POPULAR RIGHT NOW.

>> YOU DON'T THINK IN THE NEXT FOUR MONTHS THAT CAN CHANGE AT ALL?

YOU DON'T THINK AS JORDAN SAID AN ABSOLUTELY MONUMENTAL SUPREME COURT RULING OR ANYTHING AT THE LOCAL STATE LEVEL CAN CHANGE THE NATIONAL TRAJECTORY OF AN UNPOPULAR PRESIDENT?

>> NO.

HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT.

IF YOU LOOK BACK -- I DO.

ESSENTIALLY THE KICK IS PRETTY WELL BAKED AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS NO LET DOWN IN INFLATION OVER THE NEXT FOUR MONTHS.

WE ARE GOING TO HAVE GREAT PROBLEMS WITH HIGH PRICES AND GASOLINE AND FOOD.

WE ARE BEGINNING TO GO INTO A RECESSION.

COMPANIES ARE SCALING BACK ECONOMICALLY.

WE ARE IN FOR A ROUGH TIME AND THAT'S ONLY GOING TO BENEFIT REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES.

HISTORICALLY THERE ISN'T MUCH TO DO AND A PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS NOT SHOWN THE ABILITY TO MOVE THE NUMBERS VERY MUCH AS HARD AS HE HAS BEEN TRYING.

AT THIS POINT YOU ARE GOING TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE ELECTION AND WAVE ELECTIONS, HIGH TIDE RAISES ALL BOATS.

REPUBLICANS WILL DO VERY WELL JUST AS DEMOCRATS DID VERY WELL AS A RESULT OF THE UNPOPULARITY OF DONALD TRUMP FOUR YEARS AGO.

>> LET'S STICK ON MICHIGAN BECAUSE THE DEMOCRATS ARE SAYING THIS IS AN ADVANTAGE FOR GRETCHEN WITMER OF THE REPUBLICANS PUT UP ANY ONE OF THESE CANDIDATES THEY ARE PERCEIVED TO BE MORE EXTREME, NOT MAINSTREAM.

DON'T APPEAL TO MODERATE WOMEN IN OAKLAND COUNTY.

SHE WINS.

>> I DISAGREE.

I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A VERY CLOSE RACE.

THE POLLING I'M SHOWING -- I JUST DID A STATEWIDE POLL FOR ANOTHER CLIENT THAT WAS NOT RELEASED PUBLICLY BECAUSE THE CLIENT DID WANT TO DO IT.

SHE HAD A JOB APPROVAL -- THE GOVERNOR HAD A JOB APPROVAL OF 49 PERCENT BUT IN A HEAD TO HEAD SHE WAS ACTUALLY DOWN BY ONE POINT AND SHE WAS ONLY A 44 PERCENT AND OF THE GENERIC REPUBLICAN WAS AT 45 PERCENT.

IF YOU ARE AN INCUMBENT GOVERNOR, 5 PERCENT BELOW A MAJORITY, YOU HAVE A DIFFICULT RACE AHEAD OF YOU.

WHAT HAPPENS IS THE REPUBLICANS WILL WALK ACROSS BROKEN GLASS WITH BARE FEET TO GET TO THE POLLS AND OF THE DEMOCRATS WHO ARE DISHEARTENED BECAUSE OF THE CONDITION OF THE ACADEMIES SIMPLY AREN'T ACADEMY SIMPLY ARE GOING TO DO THAT.

THEY DON'T SHOW UP JUST AS THEY DID NOT SHOW UP FOR YEARS AGO WHEN THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT WAS UNPOPULAR.

REPUBLICANS DIDN'T GO TO THE PULSE.

>> WITH ALL DUE RESPECT I HAVE ANOTHER POSTER AND I WILL.

THE SOUND BITES YOU CAN LISTEN TO.

THE DEMOCRATS ARE ABSOLUTELY UNIQUE TO.

THEY CAN HARDLY WAIT TO GET OUT THERE IN VOTE.

>> WELL, THAT'S TO WELL, THAT'S WHY THEY MAKE WALLPAPER IN MANY DIFFERENT COLORS AS YOU CAN SEE.

BECAUSE SOME PEOPLE LIKE DIFFERENT WALLPAPER THAN OTHERS.

I DISAGREE.

I TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT'S GOING ON AND WHAT HAPPENED TO MURPHY IN NEW JERSEY.

I TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT HISTORICALLY HAS HAPPENED AND WE HAVE A PRESIDENT DOWN TO 39 PERCENT RIGHT NOW, 3.5 POINTS LESS THAN TRUMP IN A COMPARABLE PERIOD OF TIME.

THAT SMELLS GREAT PROBLEMS FOR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES.

>> ON THAT SAME NOTE, I HEARD FROM PEOPLE RUNNING AT CONGRESSIONAL AND STATE HEALTH LEVEL WHO SAY GRETCHEN WITMER IS GOING TO ACT AS A SHIELD AGAINST BIDEN'S NEGATIVITY DOWN BALLOT.

NEGATIVE IDEAS THAT BIDEN.

DO YOU BELIEVE THERE IS ANY TRUTH TO THAT THAT WITMER COULD SERVE AS A SHIELD AGAINST BAD BIDEN RECEPTION FROM VOTERS AND ACTUALLY SEE IT NOT AS -- NOT AS BADLY.

YOUR CONGRESSIONAL RACES, STATE HOUSE RACES COSTS SENATE RACES.

>> NO, LET ME TELL YOU A QUICK STORY ABOUT A RACE THAT OCCURRED IN 2006.

THERE'S ALWAYS MORE VOTES IN A PRESIDENTIAL YEAR THAN A NONPRESIDENTIAL YEAR.

IN A HOUSE SEAT IN THE PLYMOUTH NORTHVILLE AREA IN 2004 PICK OF THE REPUBLICAN.

THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WON WITH 18,000 VOTES AND THE DEMOCRAT, ONLY 10,000 VOTES.

TWO YEARS LATER IN WHAT SHOULD BE A LOW VOTER TURNOUT THE REPUBLICAN ACTUALLY GOES UP TO 19,000 VOTES.

THE DEMOCRAT GOES FROM 10,000 TO 20,000 AND WINS.

THAT'S THE TYPE OF THINGS THAT HAPPEN IN A BAD YEAR.

IN 2006 WAS A HORRIBLE YEAR FOR REPUBLICANS.

IT WAS THE SECOND MIDTERM FOR GEORGE BUSH.

THE IDEA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE WILL PROTECT THE REST OF THE TICKET IS JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

>> MR. MITCHELL ON THAT STATEMENT WE THANK YOU FOR SHOWING UP.

HAVE FUN IN MARQUETTE.

WE APPRECIATE YOU BEING ON THE PROGRAM.

THANKS TO DAVID AND JORDAN AND SIMON.

WELCOME TO "OFF THE RECORD."

SEE YOU NEXT WEEK RIGHT HERE FOR MORE OTR.