>> Tim: THANKS FOR TUNING IN.

THE GUEST IS NOTED MICHIGAN POLLSTER BERNIE PORN WITH NEW DATA ON THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT IN OUR STATE.

OUR LEAD STORY, BATTLE LINES DRAWN ON THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE MOVEMENT.

ON THE OTR PANEL, JIM KIERTZNER, SAMANTHA SHRIBER AND JORDYN HERMANI.

SIT IN WITH US AS WE GET THE INSIDE, OUT.

OFF THE RECORD.

>> Tim: THANK YOU VERY MUCH, WELCOME TO "OFF THE RECORD" ON THIS FRIDAY MORNING.

LET'S TALK ABOUT NEW POLLING DATA.

THIS IS KIND OF INTERESTING.

SHE'S RUNNING FOR THE U.S. SENATE.

JAMES CRAIG, THE CHIEF HAS NOT ANNOUNCED ANYTHING.

HASN'T RAISED A PENNY AND THEY ARE TIED FOR THE U.S. SENATE.

THIS IS NEWS TO HIM TODAY.

HE SAYS THIS IS COMPELLING AS HE SAID HE TOLD -- >> HE SAYS, ARE YOU SURE.

REALLY?

>> HE'S IN DISBELIEF.

>> Tim: HIS REACTION WAS SURPRISED.

HE'S 80% IN THIS RACE.

HE SAYS THE STATE GOP IS IN DISARRAY.

HE'S MEETING WITH PEOPLE ON A NATIONAL LEVEL.

HE NEEDS THE FUEL FOR THE GAS TANK.

HE'S ALSO SAYING THIS IS COMPELLING AND WHO KNOWS.

MIGHT PULL IT IN.

>> THE 20 PERCENT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PART.

IF HE CAN'T RAISE THE MONEY FORGET IT.

>> EXACTLY.

SHE HAS MILLIONS IN HER COIFFURES.

TAKING HER ON IS GOING TO TAKE A LOT OF DOUGH.

HOWEVER, MONEY ALONE DOES NOT WIN A RACE.

THAT WILL HAVE TO BEAR OUT.

ONE OF THE POINTS I WANT TO KEY IN ON WITH THAT POLL, I BELIEVE 50% OF RESPOND WENTS DIDN'T FLOW WHO THE CANDIDATES WERE.

THAT KIND OF UNDERCUTS THAT ENTIRE PREMISE OF THEIR TIED.

IF HALF OF THE PEOPLE YOU TALKING TO DON'T KNOW WHO THE CANDIDATES ARE, IT'S HARD TO PUT A LOT OF STOCK IN A 600 RESPONDENT POLL BASED OFF THAT IMPORTANT CAVEAT.

>> I AGREE WHAT JORDYN SAID.

IF LIFE IS ABOUT LEARNING LESSONS.

JAMES CRAIG LEARNED A LOT OF LESSONS LAST YEAR, IF NOT TOO MANY LESSONS.

WE OBVIOUSLY COVER POLITICS.

WHEN WE WERE OBSERVING THIS CAMPAIGN, WE VIEWED IT AS THE EPITOME OF DYSFUNCTION WHEN HE MADE A GUBERNATORIAL BID.

THERE'S A LOT OF VOTERS FAMILIAR WITH THE JAMES CRAIG NAME.

THEY WERE EXCITED ABOUT THIS RACE.

OBVIOUSLY, A BIG CONVERSATION THAT WE WERE INITIALLY HAVING ABOUT ELISSA SLOTKIN U.S. SENATE BID HOW SHE WILL DO WITH METRO DETROIT VOTERS.

AN AREA SHE HAS NOT CAMPAIGNED BEFORE.

THIS CAN BE AN OPPORTUNITY MAY BE JAMES CRAIG COULD BE THAT VIABLE REPUBLICAN WHO HOPS IN.

>> Tim: HE DOESN'T HAVE THE TO GATHER PETITION SIGNATURES TO GET ON THE BALLOT.

WHICH HE SAID ON THIS PROGRAM WITH US WAS SLOPPY.

>> HE LEARNED FROM THAT.

THE NUMBERS ARE INTERESTING.

THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTE GOES TO SLOTKIN.

THE WHITE VOTE GOES TO JAMES CRAIG.

IN HIS MEDIA MARKET, HE OWNED THE DETROIT MEDIA MARKET.

HE'S BEHIND.

EXPLAIN THAT.

>> HE'S NOT IN THE RACE YET.

>> Tim: HE'S STILL ALIVE.

>> OF COURSE.

I THINK YOU'LL SEE THESE NUMBERS SHIFT IF THEY GETS IN.

HE'LL DO A BIG SPLASH ANNOUNCEMENT IF HE'S IN.

HE'S A SHOWMAN.

HE KNOWS HOW TO PLAY THAT GAME.

HE WAS CALLED HOLLYWOOD JAMES CRAIG FOR ALL OF HIS YEARS OUT IN L.A. AS A COP, WORKING HIS WAY UP AFTER HE WAS LAID OFF IN DETROIT.

AS FAR AS ONLY 50% NAME RECOGNITION, I WOULD SAY POLL 600 PEOPLE AND ASK WHO U.S.

SENATORS ARE NOW?

CAN THEY NAME PETER AND STABENOW.

>> Tim: PROBABLY NOT.

LET'S TURN THE PAGE ON THAT.

THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE -- ON TELEVISION NEWS, YOU GOT TO REDUCE EVERYTHING TO 25 SECONDS.

TELL ME IF THIS IS WRONG.

WE COMBINED ALL THE VOTES IN THE STATE.

MICHIGAN PEOPLE VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP.

BUT THE REST OF THE COUNTRY VOTES FOR JOE BIDEN.

MICHIGAN VOTE GOES TO BIDEN, CORRECT?

>> I'M GOING TO BACKTRACK A LITTLE BIT.

RIGHT NOW, IN THE UNITED STATES, YOU NEED 270 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES TO SECURE A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

BASICALLY, WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A PREEXISTING COMPACT OF STATES.

THERE'S ALREADY MORE THAN 190 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES RECOVER- WHOEVER WINS POPULAR VOTE, DO DIMINISH -- MICHIGAN IS NOT PAT OF THAT COMPACT.

ONE THING THAT'S DIFFERENT, THOUGH, WE HAVE USUALLY SEEN HAND FULL FROM EACH PARTY COME TOGETHER TO BACK THIS PROPOSAL.

THIS YEAR, YOU LOOK AT THE SENATE MINORITY LEADER, HOUSE MINORITY LEADER, REPUBLICANS, MATT HOLLOWEN AND ERIK NESBITT.

THEY'RE GOING TO GET BEHIND NATIONAL VOTE.

>> Tim: EVEN SOME MEMBERS SUPPORTED THIS IN PREVIOUS YEARS.

>> THE BASE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HAS CHANGED.

THE PEOPLE THAT THEY ARE ANSWERING TO HAS CHANGED.

RIGHT NOW, THROUGH BY THE ELECTION INTEGRITY MOVEMENT THAT WAS AMPLIFIED FOLLOWING THE 2020 ELECTION.

WHEN THEY THINK OF BIG CITIES SUCH AS LOS ANGELES, NEW YORK CITY, MEMBERS OF THE COMPACT ALREADY, THEY THINK OF LOCAL CORRUPTION, THEY THINK OF OF COMPLETE INABILITY TO RUN A SMOOTH AND EFFICIENT AND SECURED ELECTION OPERATION.

WHEN THEY THINK ABOUT MICHIGAN JOINING THAT AND HAVING BASICALLY A SYSTEM WHERE SOMEONE LIKE DONALD TRUMP WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO WIN, THAT'S NOT A FISH THEY WANT TO SEE FRY.

>> Tim: PETER FORMED A GROUP TO OPPOSE THIS.

THERE ARE REPUBLICANS FOR IT.

DEMOCRATS AGAINST IT.

IT'IT'S ALL OVER IT.

>> YOU'RE STARTING TO WHAT IS EMERGING.

IT'S THE FUNDING BEHIND THIS IS COMING FROM THE TWO COASTS.

LARGELY.

THEY ARE FUELING THIS.

THEY ARE PUSHING FOR THIS.

WE SAW STATE SENATOR JIM RUNSTAD SAY THIS GROUP IS SENDING LAWMAKERS ON THESE FREE LAVISH TROPICAL TRIPS WITH NO TRANSPARENCY TO GET THEM TO VOTE FOR IT.

>> ONE OF ONE COULD SAY THAT THE LAWMAKERS TODAY ARE PAYING FOR THE OVER INDULGENCE ON LOBBYIST GOODIES THAT WERE PARTICIPANTED IN BEFORE THEM.

WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE LOBBYING EFFORTS BEHIND THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE MOVEMENT.

YOU THINK ABOUT GOING TON TROPICAL VACATIONS, SITTING BY THE BEACH, TALKING ABOUT DEMOCRACY.

IF YOU'RE A REPUBLICAN LAWMAKER AND PART YOUR BRAND IS TO SAY YOUR ANTI-SWAMP, YOU'RE NOT GOING TO WANT TO HANG OUT WITH THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE LOBBYIST COMMUNITY.

>> NOT TO MENTION THE CURRENT WAY OF DOING THINGS HAS BENEFITED CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATES.

MOST RECENTLY DONALD TRUMP WON AN ELECTION -- >> Tim: WHICH DRIVE THE DEMOCRATS NUTS.

>> THAT'S WHY YOU'RE GETTING THAT LEVEL.

YOU SEE PEOPLE SAYING THAT THE BENEFITS, YOU'RE WINNING BASED OFF THE NUMBER OF VOTES OVERALL.

YOU THINK, YOU CAN GET -- BEHIND THAT.

PEOPLE SAYING, THAT WILL INCENTIVIZE CANDIDATES TO GO TO BIGGER PLACES LIKE CALIFORNIA, NEW YORK AND TEXAS.

MICHIGAN WILL GET TOSSED TO THE WIND.

CONSIDERING THE WAY WE DO THINGS IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.

WE ARE CONSIDERED A BATTLEGROUND STATE.

>> ONE POINT ON THAT, THE BATTLEGROUND IS THE KEY HERE.

DO YOU KNOW HOW MUCH MONEY TELEVISION STATIONS MAKE BECAUSE WE ARE A BATTLEGROUND STATE IN ELECTION YEARS?

>> Tim: THERE ARE GENERAL MANAGERS IN TV OFFICES AROUND THE STATE LOOKING AT THEIR BOTTOM LINE.

>> THEY WANT US TO REMAIN A BATTLEGROUND STATE.

DO WE LOSE THAT WITH THIS?

>> I WANT TO CLARIFY HOUSE DEMOCRATS ARE HOPING TO TAKE THIS UP FOR A CHAMBER WIDE VOTE BEFORE SUMMER RECESS.

WHICH STARTS AROUND FOURTH OF JULY TIME.

ANOTHER THING I WANT TO BRING UP, SUPPORTING FACTOR FOR THIS MOVEMENT IS THE ELECTION EDUCATION ISSUE.

EVERY FOUR YEARS WHEN WE HAVE A PRESIDENTIAL RACE COME UP, YOU HAVE SO MANY GENERAL VOTERS ASK, WAIT A SECOND, WHAT'S THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.

WHY ARE WE TALKING ABOUT THAT?

YOU THINK ABOUT IT, WHEN YOU VOTE FOR YOUR GOVERNOR, IT'S ONE PERSON ONE VOTE.

WHEN YOU VOTE FOR STATE LAWMAKERS ONE PERSON ONE VOTE.

>> Tim: LET'S TALK ABOUT THE BUDGET.

ARE WE BEGINNING TO GET THIS DONE BY THE END OF THE MONTH?

>> THAT'S WHAT DEMOCRATS SAYING IS POSSIBLE.

RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE NOTHING SO FAR PUBLICLY TO COME OUT ABOUT THE BUDGET OTHER THAN WORKING ON IT.

THERE'S LIKELY TO BE SOME REPUBLICAN WISH LIST ITEMS WITHIN IT.

DEMS WIL NEED REPUBLICANS TO GET ON THEIR SIDE.

HUGE THING THAT'S LOOMING OVER THIS IS THE CONCEPT OF MEDIA EFFECT, REPUBLICANS C COULD HOLD ON THAT.

EVERYBODY IS TRYING TO TALK AROUND THAT RIGHT NOW.

SAY, NO, THE ABILITY TO WORK IN A BIPARTISAN FASHION GET THIS DONE.

GET SOMETHING ON THE BOOKS.

JULY 1 IS THE ARBITRARY DEADLINE.

WE REALLY HAVE TO GET THIS DONE SOMETIME BEFORE OCTOBER.

>> Tim: THEY AGREE ON TARGETS.

WHICH EACH AGENCY GETS X AMOUNT OF DOLLARS.

LET'S PUT MORE MEAT ON THE BONES ABOUT IE, IF THEY DON'T GIVE THE BUDGET I.E.

AND SCHOOLS DON'T GET MONEY IN TIME, THAT'S A HUGE STORY.

DO THE REPUBLCANS WANT THAT ON THEIR PLATTER?

>> IT'S A DANGEROUS GAME TO PLAY.

NOT JUST FOR POINTS YOU MENTIONED.

FOR SENATE REPUBLICANS WHEN YOU ARE HANDING THE POWER OF WIN YO- LAWMAKERS, WHAT THEY WILL TALK ABOUT AND WHAT THE POLICY AGENDAS ARE.

YOU ARE GIVING THAT POWER AWAY TO THE GOVERNOR.

IT'S A DANGEROUS GAME.

>> Tim: THE BUDGET, YOU GOT TO GIVE THE REPUBLICANS SOMETHING, JAMES.

>> THAT'S THE HORSE TRAINING.

MY READ ON THIS, YOU GUYS ARE CLOSER TO THIS THAN I AM.

THEY ARE SAYING, WE'RE STILL IN THE DARK.

WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE DEMS WHO CONTROL EVERYTHING, WANT.

THE DEMS ARE SAYING, WE WANT TO GET THIS RIGHT.

WE'RE TAKING IT SLOWLY.

THIS IS OUR FIRST SHOT SINCE WE'VE TAKEN OVER EVERYTHING IN 40 YEARS, CONTROL OF THE SENATE, HOUSE AND GOVERNOR'S OFFICE.

THERE'S ALL OF THOSE.

>> I WAS GOING TO SAY, THAT'S% SOMETHING I FEEL LIKE IT'S OVERLOOKED A LOT, DEMS ARE DOING THIS FOR THE FIRST TIME FOR SO MANY OF THEM.

THERE WILL BE GROWING PAINS.

IT'S NOT LINKED ANYTHING NEFARIOUS.

OBVIOUSLY, TALKING TO YOU ACROSS THE AISLE PARTNERS IN MAKING THE BUDGET IS A HUGE THING TO DO.

JUST BASED OFF THE CONCEPT OF GROWING PAINS.

>> YESTERDAY, I ASKED SENATE APPROPRIATIONS CHAIR SARAH ANTHONY, I ASKED, REPUBLICANS ARE SAYING THEY ARE NOT BEING ALLOWED A SEAT AT THE NEGOTIATION TABLE.

IS THAT TRUE.

SHE SAID, SHE ADVISED HER SUBCOMMITTEE CHAIRS TO BE COMMUNICATIVE AS POSSIBLE, THEY ARE VERY MUCH UTILIZING THAT WHEN VOTERS ELECTED THIS DEMOCRATIC T TRIFECTA NOT ONLY THEY GIVE THEM THE POWER TO BUILD POLICY BUT BUDGETS.

>> Tim: I'M NOT SURE THEY GAVE THEM THE POWER TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE CONVERSATION >> THAT'S HYPOCRITICAL THAT DEMOCRATS OPINED ON THE FACT OF TRANSPARENCY.

I UNDERSTAND WHEN YOU'RE IN THE DRIVER SEAT, LIKE WITH THE GROWING PAINS, THERE'S A LOT GOING ON TRYING TO GET ON THAT HORSE.

THEY PROBABLY IS A SLIGHT WANT TO SAY NO.

YOU DROVE THIS PLANE FOR SO LONG.

WE'RE IN THE PILOT SEAT NOW.

YOU ARE GOING TO SIT THERE AND BE A PASSENGER JUST LIKE WE WERE.

BUT, LIKE WITH THE MEDIA EFFECT IT'S A DANGEROUS GAME.

WE CAN'T KEEP PLAYING AT THIS TR TAT FORGIVE.

SOMEONE GOT TO BE THE ADULT.

>> REPUBLICANS HAVE BEEN CLEAR ABOUT WHAT THEIR AGENDA ITEMS ARE.

THEY WANT TO PAY DOWN LONG-TERM DEBT.

THEY WANT TO SEE AND COLLUSIVE BRIDGE FUNDING TO TAKE OUR LOCAL BRIDGES OUT OF CRITICAL CONDITION, ESPECIALLY IN WAY THAT FREES UP LOCAL ROAD FUNDING.

>> Tim: THAT'S A GOVERNOR ISSUE.

FIX THE ROADS AND BRIDGES.

MAKING MICHIGAN MORE COMPETITIVE.

THAT'S GOING TO BE A BIG THEME OF THIS BUDGET.

IT'S GOING TO BE LOOKING AT WAYS TO ATTRACT POPULATION THROUGH THIS OPENING FISCAL YEAR BUDGET.

THEY WANT TO SEE A RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT TAX CREDIT.

>> Tim: LET'S FASTEN THE THIS IS INTERESTING.

LET'S CALL IN BERNIE PORN NOW OUR EXPERT POLLSTER.

WELCOME BACK TO "OFF THE RECORD."

LET'S START WITH THE SLOTKIN STORY.

IS THIS A NON-STORY?

>> I WOULDN'T SAY IT'S A NONSTORY.

BOTH OF THEM ARE UNKNOWN BY MORE THAN A MAJORITY.

NOTWITHSTANDING THE FACT THAT JAMES CRAIG HAD RUN FOR GOVERNOR, OBVIOUSLY WELL-KNOWN IN THE DETROIT AREA.

WE DID A SURVEY FEW YEARS AGO WHEN HE WAS A POLICE CHIEF, HE WAS MORE POPULAR THAN ANY OTHER POLITICAL FIGURE.

THAT IS SOMETHING I THINK IS AIDING HIM IN HIS CONSIDERATION OF RUNNING.

CLEARLY, THAT'S NOT AS IMPORTANT I THINK AS THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE.

ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP IN TERMS THE INDICTMENTS.

>> Tim: IN THAT CASE, THE RACE IS TIED?

>> THE RACE IS TIED.

ALMOST 50% OF THE INDEPENDENT VOTERS.

BOTH SLOTKIN AND CRAIG ARE UNKNOWN AMONG THOSE VOTERS.

DEPENDING ON WHO HAS THE MONEY TO DO THE TELEVISION ADVERTISING AND TRY TO PERSUADE INDEPENDENT >> WE TALKED ABOUT POLLING.

THERE WERE CANDIDATES PUTTING LOT OF STOCK IN THE STATISTICS COMING OUT ONLY FOR THEM TO BE SKEWED OR WRONG AND OBVIOUSLY WITH YOU BEING A POLLSTER.

I WAS STILL KIND OF HUNG UP ON THE AMOUNT OF PEOPLE WHO DIDN'T KNOW BASED OFF THE AMOUNT OF PEOPLE THAT YOU TALK TO.

FOR PEOPLE WATCHING THIS, I IMAGINE THEY HAVE THE SAME QUESTION.

WHEN YOU ARE DOING A POLL LIKE THIS AND SO MANY PEOPLE DON'T KNOW WHO THE CANDIDATES ARE, WHAT DOES THIS BRING TO THE TABLE OVERALL WHEN YOU'RE CONSIDERING THIS RACE?

>> WELL, THEY WILL BE KNOWN -- SLOTKIN WILL BE KNOWN IN HER CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT AREA.

IT'S SURPRISING THAT CRAIG LEADS HER IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN.

THAT'S WHERE HER BASE IS.

IN HER FORMER DISTRICT, OAKLAND COUNTY WAS PART OF HER CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.

SHE IS LEADING SUBSTANTIALLY IN OAKLAND COUNTY OVER CRAIG NOW.

IN DETROIT, SHE IS LEADING BUT NOT BY AS MUCH AS OTHER DEMOCRATS ARE LEADING.

IT'S NOT SURPRISING THAT IN DETROIT, SHE IS LEADING BECAUSE ALTHOUGH, THAT IS 80% BLACK AND JAMES CRAIG IS AFRICAN-AMERICAN, IS STILL A DEMOCRAT, THEY ARE VOTING FOR A DEMOCRATIC TAG IN THAT BASED ON RACE.

>> I WANT TO TALK ABOUT YOUR PRESIDENTIAL POLLING.

YOU FOUND, PLEASE CORRECT ME, JOE BIDEN IS TIED WITH BOTH RON DESANTIS AND HE WILL BE TIED WITH DONALD TRUMP.

CORRECT?

>> YES.

>> BASED OFF YOUR POLLING, I WANT TO ASK A UNIQUE QUESTION, WHEN THINK ABOUT THE PURPLE VOTERS OF MICHIGAN, WHICH PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DO YOU THINK THEY'D BE WANTING TO PARTICIPATE IN, THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY OR THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY?

>> EXCELLENT QUESTION.

GIVEN WHAT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS DOING IN TERMS OF TRYING TO HAVE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THEIR DELEGATES CHOSEN BY CAUCUS, ONLY 12 DELEGATES ELECTED BY THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY, I THINK IT'S A BIG QUESTION TO WHETHER OR NOT THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE THE KIND OF PARTICIPATION THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO HAVE.

ALTHOUGH, I THINK THEY WOULD ASSUME NOT HAVE PARTICIPATION SO THAT TRUMP IS MORE EASILY GOING TO WIN.

>> Tim: ARE YOU ABLE TO CRAFT A QUESTION -- AT WHAT POINT DO RESPONDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN OR SAY THEY ARE REPUBLICAN, GET ENOUGH AND THEY WANT TO DUMP TRUMP?

>> 70% FAVORABILITY RATING NOW.

HE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER, ALMOST 80%.

23% OF REPUBLICANS HAVE UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF HIM.

FAVORABLE AMONG DEMOCRATS.

I THINK THAT YOU'RE SEEING THE BEGINNING OF SOME OF THE REPUBLICAN POTENTIAL CANDIDATES AND THOSE WHO HAVE ANNOUNCED CONSIDERING BEING MORE NEGATIVE TOWARD.

YOU SEE IT IN CHRIS CHRISTIE.

YOU ALSO SEE IT IN NIKKI HALEY.

SHE HAS BEEN CRITICAL OF HIM.

YOU HAVE BILL BARR SAYING IF HALF OF THE INFORMATION IN THE INDICTMENT IS CORRECT, HE'S TOAST.

I THINK IT'S TOO EARLY TO TELL.

IT'S ALSO TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MANY OTHER INDICTMENTS MAY BE COMING DOWN THE ROAD.

>> Tim: IF YOU SAID EARLIER THEREAT PEOPLE DON'T WANT EITHER OF THESE GENTLEMEN TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT.

WHY ARE THEY TIED AT 40%?

THEY SHOULD BE GETTING NOTHING.

>> WELL, THAT'S BECAUSE THE PARTY I.D.

AND THE FACT THAT REPUBLICANS ARE VOTING FOR TRUMP EVEN THOUGH THEY DON'T LIKE HIM AS MUCH.

KEEP IN MIND, HIS FAVORABILITY RATING IS 34%.

IT WAS IN THE LAST SURVEY, 32%.

THE PARTY I.D.

IS 42%.

HE'S RUNNING 8 POINTS BELOW WHILE BIDEN IS RUNNING THREE POINTS BELOW THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY I.D.

THAT'S 23% HAVING UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF TRUMP AND IT'S THE 21% OR SO HAVE UNFAVORABLE AMONG DEMOCRATS ABOUT BIDEN.

THE BIDEN AGE MAY BE HAVING AN IMPACT.

>> BERNIE LET ME ASK YOU THIS.

WITH THIS PRIMARY MOVING UP TO FEBRUARY 27th, DO YOU SEE MICHIGAN VOTERS -- WE HAD THE DISCUSSION ABOUT THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY CAUCUS SPLIT.

DOES THIS ENGAGE MORE MICHIGAN VOTERS MOVING IT UP AND BRINGING THE NATIONAL ATTENTION TO MICHIGAN SOONER?

>> I THINK IT PROBABLY WILL.

YOU STILL HAVE THIS STIGMA OF PEOPLE NOT WANTING EITHER CANDIDATE TO RUN.

I THINK UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT TO WHAT EXTENT MOVING IT UP WILL INCREASE TURNOUT.

IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT AMONG THOSE THAT ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE MEANING TURNOUT IS HEAVIER, BIDEN WINS BY A LARGER MARGIN AMONG THOSE VOTERS.

IF TURNOUT IS HEAVIER, I THINK RIGHT NOW, THIS IS BASED ON A LOWER TURNOUT THAN WE WOULD PROBABLY EXPECT.

>> I WANT TO ASK ABOUT THE POLLING YOU DID ON THE GOVERNOR'S APPROVAL RATING.

JUST HAVING THIS DEMOCRATIC TRIFECTA AND MAJORITIES IN THE LEGISLATURE, HAS THAT HELPED HER RATING.

>> THE ACCOMPLISHMENT OF THE DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY AND SIGNING BILLS ON GUN SAFETY AND OTHER ISSUES HAS SHOWN THAT DEMOCRATS ARE ACCOMPLISHING THEIR AGENDA.

THAT IS HELPING.

IN THE POLL WE DID FOR THE MICHIGAN LIBRARY ASSOCIATION, YOU HAD REPUBLICANS AND THE LEGISLATURE HAVING A VERY LOW PERCENTAGE WHILE DEMOCRATS IN THE LEGISLATURE WERE RIGHT AT THE PARTY I.D.

THAT IS SPEAKING TO THE ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF DEMOCRATS NOW THEY ARE IN THE MAJORITY AS WELL AS HOLDING THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE.

>> I WANT TO GO BACK TO THE PRESIDENTIAL POLLING THAT YOU DID.

SPECIFICALLY, I WANT TALK ABOUT TRUMP AND DESANTIS.

I KNOW YOU'LL ASK THE RESPONDENT, DO YOU STRONGLY LEAN REPUBLICAN, MILDLY LEAN REPUBLICAN.

WHEN HE JUMPED IN THE RACE, I GUESS ARE SEEING THAT DATA BEAR OUT IN THE SENSE?

WHAT KINDS OF CONSERVATIVES ARE WE SEEING ATTACHING THEMSELVES TO TRUMP VERSUS DESANTIS AND BY EXTENSION, HOW MUCH DO WE THINK THESE INDICTMENTS ARE MAY BE SKEWING THOSE NUMBER?

>> LOT OF THAT IS UNKNOWN.

WE ONLY HAD A WEEK WHERE THE INDICTMENT WAS MOST RECENT INDICTMENT HAS TAKEN EFFECT.

THIS POLL WAS RUN THE DAY AFTER IT BEGAN.

ALL OF IT IS POST-INDICTMENT.

THIS IS REFLECTIVE OF THE IMPACT OF THE INDICTMENT.

I THINK THAT IT'S PRETTY MUCH UNKNOWN IN TERMS WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE.

IF THERE'S MORE INDICTMENTS AT SOME POINT, THE DRIP, DRIP, DRIP OF WHAT IS COMING OUT IN THESE INDICTMENTS, IT HAS TO HAVE AN IMPACT.

WE ALREADY SEEN AN IMPACT IN TERMS OF TRUMP'S NUMBERS.

DESANTIS IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT IN TERMS HOW HE'S PERCEIVED THAN TRUMP AND IN HIS WOKISM MESSAGING.

WE TESTED THAT IN THE SURVEY WE DID FOR THE MICHIGAN LIBRARY ASSOCIATION.

THAT GETS 15% OF THE ELECTORATE IN MICHIGAN.

>> Tim: MR. PORN, DO YOU KNOW THERE'S INTELLIGENCE LIFE ON OTHER PLANET?

[ LAUGHTER ] >> IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE THERE ISN'T.

MICHIGAN VOTERS, 50% SAY THAT THERE'S INTELLIGENT LIE ON OTHE- LIFE ON OTHER PLAN -- PLANETS.

HOWEVER, IT'S INTERESTING AMONG DEMOCRATS, 57% SAY THERE'S INTELLIGENT LIFE FORM ON OTHER PLANET.

57% OF THOSE DEMOCRATS BELIEVE THAT SAY THAT THEY HAVE VISITED UFOs.

WELL, ONLY 42% OF INDEPENDENT VOTERS SAY THAT THERE'S INTELLIGENT LIFE FORM 61% BELIEVE THEY VISITED.

SURPRISINGLY REPUBLICANS 46% SAYS THERE'S INTELLIGENT LIFE FORM AND 66% OF REPUBLICANS SAY >> Tim: WHEN PEOPLE OUT OF STATE READ THAT ABOUT MICHIGAN, WHAT IMPACT WILL THAT HAVE ON THE GOVERNOR'S ATTEMPT TO DRAW PEOPLE INTO MICHIGAN?

>> WE'RE LESS THAN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE IN TERMS OF BELIEVING IN INTELLIGENT LIFE FORM.

ONE PERSON SENT ME AN E-MAIL SAYING, YOU MESSED UP.

YOU SHOULD HAVE ASKED IF THERE'S INTELLIGENT LIFE FORM ON THIS PLANET.

>> THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT I WAS GOING TO SAY.

IS THERE INTELLIGENT LIFE FORM IN MICHIGAN IN OUR COUNTY IN OUR OWN NEIGHBORHOOD?

THAT'S AN OPEN QUESTION.

>> ON THE SHOW RIGHT NOW.

MY LAST QUESTION, WHY DO YOU THINK SOME VOTERS ARE STILL INTRIGUED BY JAMES CRAIG EVEN THOUGH HIS GUBERNATORIAL CAMPAIGN FLOPPED?

>> HE CAME OFF WELL IN THE RACE.

I PICKED JAMES CRAIG TO RUN AGAINST ALYSSA SLOTKIN.

HE HAS LED ALL OF THE OTHER CANDIDATES THAT ARE CONSIDERING.

>> Tim: MR. PORN, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

WE APPRECIATE YOUR NUMBERS.

YOU HAD A BUSY WEEK.

NEXT WEEK, MORE "OFF THE RECORD" RIGHT HERE ON THIS PUBLIC TV STATION.

SEE YOU THEN.

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