Welcome to Party Politics, where we prepare you for your next political conversation.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina, a political science professor at the University of Houston.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus political science professor here, also at the University of Houston.

Obviously, the weekend's upcoming and politics is complicated.

We hope to get you comfortable for the weekend to come when you're talking politics with friends and family, hopefully in a civilized way.

Right.

Just like they do all across the world.

Exactly.

The big news this week is that Ken Paxton, the attorney general in Texas, is facing an impeachment trial.

There's been a lot of swirl around this.

And we're going to give you all kinds of great detail in the deep.

But first, we're going to talk a little bit about what's going on in Washington.

We're not the only group institution that's back this week from a hiatus.

Congress is back, but they, unlike us, face multiple billions of dollars in problems.

So tell us what's going on in Washington and why we should care.

Well, it's kind of deja vu once again.

Back in May, remember when President Biden and the speaker of the House were trying to get a deal to extend a little bit more, the funding for running the federal.

Government more months as all we need, we promise.

So the current funding of the Federal Government expires on September 30th and if no action is taken as before.

Guess what's going to happen?

We're in shutdown mode.

Yes.

Which means a lot of things actually and tangibly to people.

Right.

You're talking about national parks that are closed, Social Security offices are closed, local Medicaid, Medicare offices are also closed.

Just basically the government ceases to function.

And we've been here before, sadly.

Many times, right?

Yeah.

Yeah.

I almost lose track after that.

But it is important and honestly, it's one of those things that you have to have the government do.

They have to be able to come to an agreement on this.

And like you say, if they don't by, you know, the October deadline, then essentially government gets shut down.

They're also working on trying to pass a $40 billion supplemental spending package, which has also been the point of some contention.

This is funds for natural disaster, enhanced border security and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Obviously, there's lots of political friction about this, not necessarily about the hurricane that hit Florida or the fires in Maui, but rather about the Ukraine situation.

So once again, some things don't change.

They're still fighting and still unable to find some kind of agreement.

But what do you think the likelihood of them coming to some kind of agreement here is?

I mean, it has to come to an agreement.

But once again, the problem is that speaking of, you know, in a very awkward and complicated position.

So back in May, before the summer, he negotiated with President Biden some numbers.

Yes.

In terms of, you know, let's ballpark it park it here.

Ect, Ect.

But within the Republican caucus.

Can they run it on like?

Well, I mean, they lost the map.

And also the math that they are using is not the same math that, you know, that block of the Republican caucus is aiming at different numbers, which are very low.

So how they're going to iron out the math, I have no idea.

But he's going to be, I think, even more complicated because they already did these before this stop gap spending bill.

And now it's like, you know, how is the same?

Fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice, shame on me as well.

Or something like that.

Get fooled again.

Yeah, exactly.

That's it.

Whole point, right?

I like the George W Bush quote this early in the season.

So we're definitely.

We're getting ready.

On pace for a new season.

But yeah, I think you're right.

I mean, this is complicated for McCarthy, not least of which is that inside his own house, inside the caucus, they're not sure how to proceed.

Obviously, the kind of more right wing Republicans want serious spending cuts, but it seems like nobody else does, including most Republicans.

Yeah, but then they're going to have to negotiate with the Senate, right?

Where a lot of these things are DOA like that.

The Senate, including Mitch McConnell, is saying like these things are just simply not workable in terms of the budget.

So it's unlikely that they're going to have a real firm home here.

But we'll see.

We'll keep an eye on this because obviously this means, you know, government could have to function or it doesn't.

And who gets to be blamed for this is really important, too.

I think that's a big kind of quandary that all of these parties are thinking about.

Right.

How can we make this kind of publicly good for us and how can we use this as leverage?

So that'll be an interesting development to.

Watch, to say the least.

But another interesting development is in Washington and inside the Senate cloakroom, and that is the ongoing controversy about Mitch McConnell and effectively his age.

Now, his partners in the Republican Party are saying that he's fine.

One of the South Dakota senators who's also in leadership, Mike Brown, said, and I quote, He is perfectly capable of doing the job that is not resounding praise for the Senate majority leader.

What do you think about this?

He had a scary episode again this last week where he effectively froze during a news conference.

Awkward to watch and pretty painful to see play out in real time, especially for a fairly significant leader in this country.

So what do you think is happening here and why the Republicans stick by him?

Well, I don't know why, but first of all, it's a huge problem.

Nikki Haley over the weekend.

Yes.

She's the one of the contenders for the Republican Party nomination for next year's presidential election.

She basically said something that, you know, I think resonates around the country.

And, you know, she talked about the age of some of these elected politicians.

You also have Dianne Feinstein ride, even President Biden, even, you know, Donald Trump.

I mean, we're talking about people 75 and up, which is.

Yeah.

Interesting.

Yes.

To say the least.

I mean, I'm not looking forward to be working at 70 something.

Right.

Like I want.

To be not going to.

Yeah, exactly.

So anyways, so I think it highlights that and in terms of political representation has I think important implications as you know, you know, and we have studied a lot of these things, you know, Genesis, millennials, Gen Xers, etc., etc.. We have or they have a different perspective in terms of what needs to be done that some of these folks may not share.

Even the Senate majority I'd use as a flip phone.

Yeah.

That's great.

Yeah, I like the old school throwback, but it's not intentional that way.

Like, that's just the phone that he uses.

And so, yeah, I think that obviously it doesn't exactly translate or relate well to the newer generation.

And we're a very young country.

Right.

And so I think that that's certainly a major disconnect.

But I think the other part of this is that the fact that this is I think not selling well with people is problematic.

I mean, the fact that there's just a lot of energy that needs to be employed in this job and people are worried that he simply doesn't have it right.

And, you know, yet also, he's the most powerful politician in Washington.

And so it's a sort of weird dynamic.

The other part of this, I think it's interesting is that the Republicans would have to figure out what's next.

Yeah, I mean, who knows what will happen with the Senate in the next election.

And the balance of power obviously is sort of at play.

But at that same time, they have to figure out who's going to be the leader and who's not.

My guess is that Mitch McConnell can't continue to be leader, that this will be his last.

Yeah, yeah, for any number of reasons.

My guess is that they probably won't do as well in midterms as they are in the 2024 as they'd hoped.

And so as a result, they're probably going to have to kind of switch gears anyway.

Mitch McConnell probably would step aside at that point, leaving, you know, a host of other people, like I mentioned, Mike Rounds, who's senator from South Dakota, possibly Susan Collins and possibly Texas, the senior senator John Cornyn.

Yeah, because he and McConnell are very close and that has been a kind of longstanding relationship where Cornyn has been sort of touted as the sort of next leader.

What do you think the likelihood of that happening is and is Cornyn positioned enough inside the caucus to be able to build bridges, but also to kind of charge ahead where the right wants him to lead?

Well, I don't think he if he's ready to charge ahead where the right wants him to be.

I see Senator Cornyn as, you know, someone that if you remember back in what was early 2000 when when he was elected to the Senate, I think he has grown and matured politically.

Right.

And becoming a more thoughtful senator.

As time has passed in terms of, you know, picking certain issues.

Right.

And in some issues siding with Democrats, some other issues siding with with with Republicans, I think it would be a good, you know, change for the Senate.

And I would, you know, be thrilled to see Senator Cornyn become the next, you know, leader of the Republican Party in the Senate.

Well, that you stopped me at our I wanted to stop you ad supported Democrats because isn't this the sticking point right.

For a lot of the far right, especially for how it might shake out in terms of how the Senate looks.

Right, because if this sort of things go as they're supposed to go, you're going to see some Republicans win in traditionally blue states, unseating Democratic senators, which means you're probably going have a shift to the right.

They may not be as likely to enjoy John Cornyn like relationship with Democrats as they are now.

And I think you're right, the reason Cornyn is so good is that he's able to kind of understand where the chamber is and then maneuver it.

He got some heat from, you know, passing bipartisan legislation.

Correct?

Gun control, modest as it was.

It still was something that everybody agreed when they passed.

So those are the kind of things that got him in some hot water.

Collin County had basically said, you know, we're going to censure you for working with Democrats.

You know, tisk tisk.

Is this going to hurt him?

Well, in texas or not?

I don't think he's going to hurt in Texas.

I mean, it's, you know, interparty political dynamics.

You know, they start censor their own.

And that has important implications also for, you know, electoral terms that we'll discuss on in our time.

But I think the Senate is different, right?

The Senate is a small chamber.

It's not the House of Representatives where you have 435 individuals running like, you know, whatever.

And the problem here is that you need Democrats, like whatever you want to do.

You need them because they're not.

Going to get to know what.

There is no way.

So you need them.

So if you put someone that is going to be a fire, flamethrower, gasoline, etc., etc., nothing, nothing is going to be done.

And the Democrats are just going to be sitting back, relaxing and enjoying every single debate.

Each other apart.

Exactly.

Speaking of fire throwers, you have also the junior senator from Texas, Ted Cruz, who's weighed in on this, saying it's troubling.

He says, obviously, age is something that all of us experience and it's right for all of us not being very committal now.

He and McConnell aren't exactly the closest friends.

Ted Cruz doesn't have that many friends in the Senate.

So it's not our guess that kind of much of a stretch to say that he's probably not going to be in leadership.

Does he really want to be right?

Because obviously his sort of bailiwick is to be from the outside kind of throwing bombs in, like when he was on Newsmax right last Friday, like drinking a beer and then reaction to the idea that like the surgeon general said, it was, you know, something you should limit.

I agree.

Everyone is make their own choices.

But at the same time, yeah, he's definitely likes to kind of stick, you know, the bottle into the eye instead of being trying to smooth things over and drink it with colleagues, right?

Absolutely.

Yeah.

I don't think as of now, Senator Cruz has a lot of chance to become that new leader of the caucus in the Senate.

No, but but he's but also that he's a political leader in some ways.

Right.

Like formally speaking, they have to have someone to organize things inside the chamber.

But there's.

Also.

Oh, yeah.

Political absolutely.

Outside.

And he plays that very, very well.

He doesn't get as well as most.

Oh yeah.

But he's going to have to have a pretty tough fight in 2024.

So we'll see how that plays out.

Well, if you're lost in the political fray, like the rest of us have no fear.

This is party politics.

I'm Brandon Rodding House at the University of Houston.

And I'm Jeronimo Cadena.

Well, obviously, lots going on in Texas, too, this week.

My friend ERCOT is once again asking people to conserve energy.

What is your thermometer set at in your house right now at the appropriate number legally required of you?

I mean, right now as we speak, it's around 79.

Okay, that's good.

That seems reasonable.

And ERCOT is asking people and had asked people for several consecutive days in this last month to conserve power at a particular time.

Obviously, the extreme heat is driving much of this demand for power.

Houston, in particular, tied the hottest day ever when it hit 109.

It's brutal out there.

And I guess the question is, is this going to be a political liability for Republicans if something tragic happens with the grid?

Oh, absolutely right.

I mean, it's it has happened on August 17, 2024, 25, 26, 27, 29.

You know, conserve energy.

And, you know, it's a combination of various things.

Trade is high demand, unexplained outages, strained supply, etc., etc., etc..

But it's also in terms of how the grid is designed is designed because on certain days when you have, you know, gas plants and coal plants generating electricity and power, they also are, you know, to the there are also feel right the problems of the heat.

Yes.

So that creates that.

They're also overheating this and that and production starts, you know, to decline.

Yeah.

So it's a very messy situation in terms of how they can do that.

And then you have they had wind power was not the wind was not blowing enough, etc., etc..

So it's a bunch of things that is complicated, but those things are not going to change for next year.

Yeah, it's going to be same thing.

And I mean, try explaining that to people right when their power goes out and it's a 100 degrees.

Oh, yeah.

And that's the real problem.

And I think these politicians face now, the legislature did do some things to shore up the grid with the hope that they would not have to face that issue.

But the frequency of the conservation notice definitely is alarming and worrisome.

So we'll see how this kind of plays out.

But hopefully things will get cooler and it won't be as big a problem.

But obviously, we know that's not the solution to all of this.

Speaking of legislation, there's a lot of legislation that the legislature passed this last session, sessions, I should say, many of which was very controversial.

And so, not surprisingly, a bunch of it ends up in the courts.

So we've seen several of these things end up this week in the courts that have been paused, struck down or temporarily on hold.

One is Health Care for Trans Kids.

Senate Bill 14 bans gender affirming care.

This was paused by the courts, and now the Texas Supreme Court is going to hear its fate.

HB 900, which is essentially about books, basically, it bans explicit books from school libraries and requires vendors to assign ratings to books based upon depictions on references to sex in the books to bookstores, including one here in Houston.

Houston's Blue Willow Bookshop has sued to stop the law.

And so the judge is basically looking through an injunction.

There's a Death Star bill, which is one of my favorite is the Star Wars references or.

Oh, yeah, it's a world killer.

Basically.

This is a bill that proactively says local control, no more.

And restrains what look, government can do significantly.

We've also seen the courts reject that mail in ballots can be rejected over ID problems.

And this is a big problem for how the state and how local governments have basically treated mail in ballots.

And it's also just, by the way, pornography right there that the court has ruled basically in favor of pornhub, which is a pornography website, in finding that age verification law required by the pledge violates the first Amendment.

So where to start?

Where to start?

Well, it's a messy problem, right?

It's also always a messy process.

Just to give you a little bit of context, the legislature passed around more than 1700 laws.

That's a lot of laws.

As a percentage.

This is a small.

It is a small, but it's a small number.

But these were the most consequential laws.

So I think, you know, it's part of the legislative process is part of a healthy you know, process in which you still have some recuse with the judicial branch.

Even the judicial branch decides not to.

Then you have other avenues.

But it's a combination.

Get it Professor?

Like, yeah, it's an institutional story but like the politics of this are really interesting, right?

Yeah.

What does it say about the state of play in Texas that all these laws are getting batted down right?

Or that they're all going to court?

Right.

Right.

Is the state moving too far to the right?

Is there going to be push back or is this just sort of a natural course, like you say, that is going to work it all out in the system?

Well, I think, you know, there is in politics, especially when we think about legislation, there's always this pendulum, right.

So it swings to the left and then need corrects and goes back to the center and then goes back to the right.

So we have these emotional and I think these signals that not a lot of people are happy with these laws and a lot of people are challenging these laws because they're not happy with it.

Now, the consequences for these electoral rear could be devastating for some, you know, members of the of the Texas House or the Texas Senate in terms of seeking reelection, because it just shows that people are not happy with these things.

Yeah, I think that's right.

And honestly, as a tradeoff question, like where they're legislating about this but not about something else.

Right.

You know, or maybe funding these things, but not funding, you know, other things.

It certainly is a trade off.

The people may not be that comfortable with.

So it could be a problem.

Another thing I think it's going to be a big problem is going to be one of these bills.

And that's the Death Star bill.

The this is House Bill 21, 27.

You probably heard a little bit about it.

But basically what it does is totally dismantle local ordinances around the state.

Yeah, effectively, it sort of limits what local governments can do in terms of enforcement to only a handful of things that are set already in the Texas code.

So what this basically does is to probably limit what local governments can do on some very functional things like, you know, policing overgrown lots, policing insects and bees.

Right.

A lot of things that get a lot of the sort of controversy has been about water breaks right now, which employers can still do privately, but the cities cannot mandate, given this, of outdoor festivals, heavy trucks, just a range of things that, like local governments, might regulate but that the state law doesn't have on the books.

So either the state's got to change those things, which means they're basically just like the mayors of these, right?

Like City council for all of these different counties right now or it doesn't get done.

And the problem is that that law is very, very, very vague.

Right, because it sends you to look at the other I guess, the codes that have been implemented and other laws.

Right.

But in order to know if you as a city have control over insects and bees.

Right.

You don't know because it is so vague.

Right, that you would have to sue the state in order for the state to say, oh, yes, by the way, yes, you can control insects and bees and this and that.

So this is a first step, but this is going to have a cascade of events in courts for suing water breaks or these or that, etc., etc.. And obviously, it's against, you know, the ethos of the Texas Constitution of home rule and now seems to do that.

So it's both ways.

No, I mean, home rule no more, right?

I mean, yeah, instituted basically in the kind of progressive era where local governments were best.

Right.

I think we're officially now, 100 years later, like have seen that blow up.

Right?

Hence the Death Star Bill where it like has just destroyed this world.

Absolutely.

Now some powers are saved here.

So, you know, local governments are still able to, you know, maintain and build roads, levy taxes, doing public awareness campaigns and all the kind of other local government, you know, employment issues.

But there are a lot of things they can't do.

And some of these cities really do have a lot of need for these kinds of things.

But you're right now, basically, the onus is on these organizations like, you know, all these interest groups or on individuals to say, hey, we think you're enforcing right now, it's not legal, we're going to sue.

But then that the local governments have to do.

Exactly.

And so it's money, it's time.

And just to be able to figure out how to do it.

Yeah.

the big news for the week is the impeachment trial of suspended Attorney General Ken Paxton.

This has been a long time coming, but obviously the politics of this are very sharp.

So let's talk about how this is going to go about.

I guess, my first question to you is, are people paying attention to this at all?

The polling is a bit mixed on this.

Generally speaking, most voters, plurality of voters say that the charges are, you know, definitely warranted, whereas, of course, for Republican voters, it's less so.

But someone between 30 and 45%, most Texans say, I don't know are people attentive to this or is it just us political nerds who are like, yes, we want to see impeachment?

I think let me guess.

Yeah, it's all discussed.

I'm okay being alone on this.

Yeah, you're right.

I mean, it has implications, actually.

Oh, yeah.

One question that the court's going to have to consider is whether or not these things happened prior to the attorney general's election to office, because effectively the rules say that if these things happen before, then they're not impeachable.

And so the court's going to have to make these decisions on several of these things.

Yeah, this is complicated because it gets into this question about what people know about this.

If I knew and they forgive him and they voted for him anyway, then effectively impeachment is moot.

So do you think this is going to happen then?

How do we sort of anticipate this?

Well, I don't think it's going to happen, right, because I mean, why going through the whole process, right.

Why getting 60 Republicans in the House to impeach want to send articles of impeachment to the Senate if they know that this doesn't have any potential, you know, outcome or whatnot.

So I think, you know, this is not going to I mean, that people are point is not going to be moot because they're going to make the argument that, you know, these issues were not known, etc., etc..

So in order for, you know, the politics to have pardon, you need to know if suddenly, you know, new evidence comes to to to to to to the floor, then I you can make that argument.

So I don't think he's going to go that way.

And I think that they're just going to go forward and see.

So I'm going forward.

Basically, they need to get two thirds of the Senate by 21 of the members to be able to vote to have either him guilty or to acquit.

That means you need all 12 Democrats, right?

I think they're going to get the Democratic votes, but they need nine Republicans.

Yeah, that's a real sticking point here.

Now, Angela Paxton, who is obviously married to Ken Paxton, is not able to participate.

Correct.

But she has to be there.

But I want to ask you about that in a second.

So they need to get basically nine Republicans to cross party lines and say, Ken Paxton, you're guilty of one of these 16 and then eventually 20 articles.

Do you think that's going to happen?

I mean, I think there's room for that.

I think that you know, I think that if we look at what prominent Republican figures have said, you know, we have the Rick Perry, Karl Rove camp that have said like absolutely, like, you know, we should move forward with this process.

Right and right.

And say, let's see what happens.

And then you have the Steve Bannon camp that says, no, this is a kangaroo court.

This is just a Democrat inspired witch hunt, etc., etc.. And I think that senators will have to make a decision in terms of what, but it's going to depend on how that evidence is presented.

I think all senators know by now what's going to be at stake right now.

Yes.

And you know, it's a defining moment for Texas Republican Party.

I think so.

And that the only times we've really seen wholesale political change in the state has been following scandal.

So this is definitely one of those things that the Republicans are worried about.

And I think a lot of them look at this and say Ken Paxton is a liability and so we need to get rid of him.

Other people say Ken Paxton's a genius, right, to keep him because that's where the party's going.

The politics of this are going to have to be sorted out.

I think in the jury here.

So that's going to be interesting.

Well, yeah.

And obviously, the role of Lieutenant Gove that's a legacy, you know, defining moment.

And he will need to be extremely politically astute, as you know, most times he is.

But, you know, it's just going to be very interesting to see what unfolds in the next couple of weeks runoff.

I mean, the rules are set up, I think, to give him every benefit of the doubt.

Right.

Even the standard, which is a criminal standard, you know, no doubt.

So conviction here is tough and given the politics of it, even tougher.

But they promise retribution.

Right now there's a gag order, so none of them can say anything.

But Ken Paxton, my hometown of Plano, in his I guess, adopted hometown of Plano, said that we're going to clean house.

Basically, he is essentially targeting these members who have come after him.

So if he is acquitted, I think it's going to be pretty much open season on these Republicans.

And not that it's not always because elections do that, but it could be pretty ugly in the outcome.

So we'll see.

We'll see.

But for these week, Brandon, that's it.

Thanks for joining us.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus.

The conversation continues next week.