♪.

TED: COMING UP NEXT ON "ARIZONA HORIZON," PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS THE U.S.

WILL RESUME ITS SHIPPING BLOCKADE ON IRAN AS BOAT SIZED ESCALADE A NEW ROUND OF ATTACKS.

>>> ARIZONA'S LARGEST EGG PRODUCER REACHES A MILLION-DOLLAR SETTLEMENT OVER FIXED PRICES.

>>> AND WE'LL GET A MONSOON FORECAST AND HEAR ABOUT A NEW WAY TO RANK DUST STORM INTENSITY.

THOSE STORIES AND MORE NEXT ON "ARIZONA HORIZON."

.

TED: GOOD EVENING, AND WELCOME TO "ARIZONA HORIZON."

I'M TED SIMONS.

CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES TO ESCALATE AS THE U.S.

FIRED A NEW ROUND OF AIRSTRIKES ON IRAN FOLLOWING IRAN'S ATTACKS ON SHIPPING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

U.S.

HAS RESUMED A NAVAL BLOCKADE OF IRANIAN PORTS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME CHARGING A 20% FEE ON ALL GOODS PASSING THROUGH THE STRAIT, WHICH PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS WILL HELP PAY FOR THE U.S.

BLOCKADE.

FOR MORE ON ALL THIS, WE WELCOME FORMER U.S.

AMBASSADOR TO NATO.

GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

>> IT'S A PLEASURE, TED.

GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.

TED: RESUMING MILITARY STRIKES ON IRAN.

WE'RE DOING THE BLOCKADE BUSINESS, WE GOT THE 20%, THE WHOLE NINE YARDS.

WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS?

>> WELL, SEVERAL THINGS.

THE BASICS FROM THE U.S.

SIDE, WE DO NOT WANT TO HAVE A FULL-SCALE WAR WITH IRAN BECAUSE THAT RISKS DRIVING UP OIL AND GAS PRICES WHICH WE DON'T WANT.

AT THE SAME TIME, WE DON'T WANT IRAN TO EXERCISE CONTROL OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AND THEY WOULD CHARGE FEES AND TOLLS LIKE WE'RE TALKING ABOUT RIGHT NOW.

SO WE REALLY WANT TO SEE FREE, OPEN NAVIGATION IN AND OUT, UAE, QATAR, KUWAIT, THEY CAN SHIP IN AND OUT OF THE PERSIAN GULF.

THAT'S WHAT WE LIKE TO SEE.

BUT IRAN, NOW THAT WE'RE INTO ARMED CONFLICT, IRAN IS WILLING TO HIT SHIPS, WILLING TO ENFORCE THE IDEA THEY HAVE TO GO THROUGH IRANIAN TERRITORIAL WATERS, WHILE THEY EXERCISE CONTROL AND EXTRACT THE CHARGE, AND WE DON'T WANT THAT, THAT'S WHY WE'RE IN THIS TIT-FOR-TAT RIGHT NOW.

WE'RE HITTING THEM, THEY'RE HITTING SHIPPING.

THEYENT TO LIKE IT, WE HIT THEM AGAIN.

THEY SAY WE'RE GOING TO SHUT IT DOWN, AND WE SHUT IT DOWN.

THE KEY POINT WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND, LOOKING AT THIS AS U.S.

CITIZENS HERE, EXERCISING CONTROL OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ FROM A VAST DISTANCE IS A LOT MORE DIFFICULT THAN IT IS FOR IRAN TO DENY ACCESS TO THE STRAIT SIMPLY BY TAKING OUT A SHIP ONCE IN A WHILE.

TED: SHOULDN'T THAT DIFFICULTY AND THE FACT THAT THE STRAIT WOULD COME INTO PLAY AS PROMINENTLY AS IT HAS, SHOULDN'T THAT HAVE BEEN IN SOME OF THE WAR GAMING EARLIER ON BEFORE THESE ATTACKS EVEN STARTED?

>> IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN, AND AT LEAST MY INFORMATION, IT WAS AS WELL, THAT THESE SORTS OF THINGS WERE WELL UNDERSTOOD BY THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY AND THE MILITARY.

THEY HAD PLANS FOR IT.

HOWEVER, YOU HAVE A COUPLE OF FACTORS ON TOP OF THAT.

YOU HAD ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU TELLING US THAT THE ENTIRE IRANIAN LEADERSHIP IS GATHERED IN ONE PLACE AT ONE TIME.

WE CAN DECAPITATE THE ENTIRE REGIME, IT WILL BE GREAT.

THAT WAS ONE POLITICAL MOTIVATION AND SOMETHING TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT, ALTHOUGH NOT DISPOSITIVE, AND THE OTHER IS THE U.S.

MILITARY IS ALWAYS PREPARED TO ESCALATE.

WE HAVE THE BEST MILITARY IN THE WORLD, BUT IT REQUIRES THE POLITICAL DECISION TO SAY WE'RE GOING TO GO ALL THE WAY, WE'RE GOING TO USE GROUND TROOPS IF NECESSARY, WE'RE GOING TO GO IN FOR REGIME CHANGE AND I DON'T THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP WANTS TO DO THAT, AND I THINK HE FEELS THE AMERICAN PEOPLE DON'T WANT ANOTHER GROUND WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST, SO HE WASN'T PREPARED TO GO ALL THE WAY.

THAT'S WHY WE NOW HAVE THE SITUATION OF KIND OF A MUCKY STANDOFF.

TED: YEAH, AND THE QUESTION KIND OF ARISES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE U.S.

EVEN NOW HAS A PLAN.

I MEAN, EVERYTHING SEEMS SO FLUID.

IS THERE A SOLID PLAN?

ARE WE PLAYING THREE DIMENSIONAL CHESS?

ARE WE THROWING THINGS AGAINST THE WALL?

WHAT'S GOING ON?

>> I AGREE WITH YOU.

I DON'T THINK THERE'S A PLAN.

I THINK THERE'S A WISH LIST, AND NUMBER ONE ON THE WISH LIST IS KEEP OIL AND GASOLINE PRICES DOWN THROUGH THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS, WHICH MEANS AVOIDING A FULL-SCALE WAR.

BUT THAT ALSO MEANS AVOIDING IRAN FIRMLY ESTABLISHING CONTROL OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

SO WE'RE TRYING TO PUSH BACK, BUT ONLY PUSH BACK ENOUGH TO GET THINGS BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE AND KICK THIS DOWN THE ROAD.

AS FOR A REAL PLAN AS TO HOW THIS ENDS UP, I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP GENUINELY WANTS TO HAVE A DEAL WITH THIS REGIME THAT KEEPS THE GULF OPEN, WE KICK THE NUCLEAR ISSUE DOWN THE ROAD.

WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS LATER, BUT THE IRANIAN REGIME ISN'T GOING FOR THAT.

THEY ARE SEEING THEIR OPPORTUNITY NOW BECAUSE WE WANT TO KEEP OIL AND GAS PRICES DOWN TO EXERCISE LEVERAGE BY TRYING TO SHUT THE STRAIT.

TED: INTERESTING YOU SAY, THAT THE PRESIDENT ON NUMEROUS TIMES IN THE PAST AND RECENTLY HAS SAID, THEY WANT TO MAKE A DEAL.

THEY'RE DESPERATE TO MAKE A DEAL.

THEY WANT TO MAKE A DEAL, THEY CONSTANTLY TELL ME, THEY WANT A DEAL.

AT WHAT POINT DO WE SAY, DO THEY REALLY WANT A DEAL?

>> EXACTLY.

I'M SURE THE PRESIDENT IS TELLING THE TRUTH WHEN HE SAYS THAT'S WHAT THEY SAY, BUT ANYONE WHO'S HAD EXPERIENCE DEALING WITH PEOPLE IN THE REAL WORLD KNOWS JUST BECAUSE THEY SAY IT DOESN'T MEAN THEY MEAN IT.

WHAT THEY REALLY WANT IS TO HAVE THEIR CONTROL OVER THE STRAIT RECOGNIZED, AND THEY WANT TO CREATE A REGIME THAT DE FACTO DOES THAT, AND I THINK IN THIS MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING THAT WE SIGNED WITH IRAN, IT ACTUALLY ACHIEVED THAT, AND WE KIND OF WOKE UP TO THE FACT THAT, OH, THEY'RE REALLY DOING IT, WE DON'T LIKE THAT, SO WE CANCEL THAT, WE PUSH BACK, AND NOW WE'RE BACK IN THIS TIT-FOR-TAT AIRSTRIKES, BUT THE REGIME GOING TO HANG ON AND BE LIKE THIS AS LONG AS THEY'RE IN POWER.

TED: IS THE MEMORANDUM, THE MOU, IS THAT STILL ALIVE?

>> WELL, PRESIDENT TRUMP -- IT'S NOT BEING IMPLEMENTED BY EITHER SIDE RIGHT NOW, HOWEVER, IT'S THE ONLY THING WE CAN COME BACK TO.

WHEN I THINK WE GO THROUGH ANOTHER WEEK OF U.S.

AIRSTRIKES AND TRYING TO TAKE SOME OF THE COASTAL THINGS, THE MISSILE BATTERIES, FOR EXAMPLE, OR CARGILE, AND WE DON'T WANT TO USE GROUND TROOPS, THE IRANIANS HIT ANOTHER SHIP AND KNOCK IT OUT.

SHIPPERS DON'T WANT TO GO THROUGH THE STRAIT.

WE DRIFT BACK THROUGH THE TERMS OF THE MEMORANDUM AS A TEMPORARY SOLUTION TO GET US THROUGH A PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH THE ELECTIONS.

TED: AND KURT, FROM WHAT YOU UNDERSTAND, SO MANY LEADERS OVER THERE HAVE BEEN -- THE U.S.

PHRASE -- DECAPITATED.

DO THEY HAVE A FUNCTIONING GOVERNMENT?

DO THEY HAVE PEOPLE CAN YOU DEAL WITH TODAY, TOMORROW AND NEXT WEEK?

>> WHAT THEY HAVE IS A REGIME, AND A REGIME IS POPULATED BY PEOPLE.

SOMETIMES THEY CHANGE, SOMETIME THEY CHANGE BECAUSE OF NATURAL CAUSES AND SOMETIMES UNNATURAL CAUSES, BUT THEY HAVE A SUPREME LEADER, THE RELIGIOUS LEADER OF THE COUNTRY, HE'S THE SPIRITUAL AUTHORITY AND THE POLITICAL AUTHORITY, UNDERNEATH THAT, THEY HAVE THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS CREATED AFTER THE REVOLUTION TO PROTECT THE REGIME BUT BECOME THE DE FACTO GOVERNMENT OF THE COUNTRY.

THEY'RE IN CHARGE OF EVERYTHING, AND THEY ARE GENERALS, THEY ARE LEADERS, THEY'RE SENIOR PEOPLE.

THEY LOSE SOME OF THEM, THEY HAVE -- JUST LIKE ANY MILITARY, IF THE GENERAL IS GONE, YOU PROMOTE THE COLONEL UP TO GENERAL, AND YOU KEEP DOING THIS.

ONE THING PRESIDENT TRUMP EMPHASIZES WHERE I THINK HE'S EXACTLY RIGHT, A LOT OF THE CONVENTIONAL MILITARY CAPABILITIES THAT IRAN HAD BEFORE THIS WAR STARTED, WE HAVE WIPED OUT.

SO AIR FORCE AND NAVY AND SO FORTH, BUT THOSE ARE NOT THE ONLY FACTORS IN EXERCISING POWER.

THEY STILL HAVE THEIR PROXY GROUPS, THEY STILL HAVE THE SPEEDBOATS THEY CAN MOVE AROUND, THEY HAVE MINES, THEY HAVE MISSILES.

THEY CAN HIT THEIR NEIGHBORS IN THE GULF STATES WHICH CREATES ANOTHER GLOBAL SHOCK WHEN THAT HAPPENS AND PUTS PRESSURE ON US TO NOT LET THAT HAPPEN, SO IRAN HAS A LOT OF LEVERAGE HERE.

TED: QUICKLY, BEFORE YOU GO, FORMER U.S.

AMBASSADOR TO NATO, WE HAD A NATO MEETING, IT SOUNDED LIKE ALLIES WERE INSULTED AND LOYALTY WAS DEMANDED, AND YET, IT LOOKS LIKE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE STARTING TO TAKE A BIGGER SHARE OF THEIR OWN DEFENSE.

FIRST OF ALL, IS THAT TRUE, AND SECONDLY, IS THAT A GOOD THING?

>> YES.

SO IN CONTRAST TO THE IRANIAN SITUATION, WHICH WE JUST DISCUSSED, WHICH IS STILL KIND OF A MESS.

THE NATO SUMMIT, AND NATO AS A WHOLE IS IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE RIGHT NOW.

I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS SUCCEEDED IN SCARING OUR ALLIE INTO SPENDING MORE MONEY, WHETHER YOU LIKE THAT TACTIC OR NOT, IT'S WORKING.

SINCE HE FIRST TOOK OFFICE IN 2017, EUROPEAN ALLIES ARE SPENDING A TRILLION DOLLARS MORE ON DEFENSE THAN THEY WERE THEN, AND THEY ANNOUNCED EVEN MORE THINGS AT THIS NATO SUMMIT, INCLUDING INVESTMENT IN DEFENSE INDUSTRY, WHICH MEANS THEY PRODUCE MORE CAPABILITIES.

MONEY IS THE ROUTE, BUT WHAT IS THE MONEY USED FOR?

YOU HAVE TO USE IT TO PRODUCE CAPABILITY AND THEY'RE DOING THAT.

THEY ALSO GAVE HIM SUPPORT ON IRAN IN TERMS OF SUPPORTING FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION, AND HE GAVE SUPPORT TO UKRAINE ALONG WITH OUR EUROPEAN ALLIES SAYING THEY CAN PRODUCE PATRIOT MISSILES ON LICENSE, WHICH IS GOOD FOR US, GOOD FOR THE COMPANY THAT GETS THE LICENSING DEAL, BUT ALSO GOOD FOR THE WORLD BECAUSE WE NEED MORE PATRIOT MISSILES BECAUSE MISSILES ARE FLYING AND TAKING OUT CIVILIANS, THEY HAVE TO BE SHOT DOWN.

TED: KURT VOLKER, FORMER U.S.

AMBASSADOR TO NATO.

ALWAYS A GREAT CONVERSATION.

THANK YOU, SIR, APPRECIATE YOUR TIME.

>> IT'S A PLEASURE, TED.

THANK YOU.

.

TED: HICKMAN'S EGG RANCH, ARIZONA'S LARGEST EGG PRODUCER AGREED TO PAY A MILLION-DOLLAR FINE AND DONATE OVER THREE MILLION EGGS AS PART OF A SETTLEMENT THAT THE COMPANY CONSPIRED WITH OTHERS TO MANIPULATE EGG PRICES.

HOWIE FISCHER OF CAPITOL MEDIA SERVICES HAS BEEN COVERING THIS STORY.

GOOD TO SEE YOU.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US HERE.

HICKMAN'S EGG, THE LARGEST EGG PRODUCER IN ARIZONA, AND THESE ARE ALLEGATIONS THAT RESULT IN A SETTLEMENT, CORRECT?

>> YES.

THEY'RE NOT ADMITTING ANYTHING, THEY'RE SAYING WE DIDN'T DO IT, BUT WE DON'T DO IT AGAIN.

THERE'S A NEW OWNER FOR HICKMAN'S AND SAYING WHATEVER OCCURRED, WE WEREN'T THERE.

THIS ALL DEALS WITH THE PRICE OF GROCERIES, THE PRICE OF EGGS.

NORMALLY ONE THINKS IN TERMS OF PRODUCE AND THINGS LIKE THAT.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND.

A LOT OF EGGS, PRICES DROP TO MOVE MORE EGGS.

YOU HAVE FEWER EGGS DURING THE AVIAN FLU, PRICES GO UP.

WHAT THEY FOUND OUT IS THIS IS A TWO STEP PROCEDURE.

NUMBER ONE, COMPANIES LIKE HICKMAN'S AND OTHER COMPANIES CAN BID IF THEY NEED MORE EGGS AND GOES THROUGH A CLEARING HOUSE, WHICH IS FINE, AND WHICH IS LEGITIMATE.

WHAT THEY FOUND OUT, INCLUDING IN TEXT FROM GLENN HICKMAN, BID UP THE PRICES, SUBMIT A LOT OF BIDS IF THEY DON'T BUY IT, THE PRICES GET OUT TO ANOTHER COMPANY, THE OTHER COMPANY SAYS HERE ARE THE RETAIL PRICES AND THE OTHER COMPANIES AND HICKMAN ESGETS TO SELL TO FRY'S, SMITTY'S AND OTHER PLACES.

TED: BASICALLY MANIPULATING THE MARKET.

>> THEY DID IT OPENLY.

USING E-MAILS, PHONE CALLS, THE FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION HAD A LOT OF INFORMATION.

TED: THIS IS FROM 2022, THAT FAR BACK?

>> FROM 2022-2024.

ONE OF THE THINGS THE FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION SAID, YOU KNOW WHEN THE PRICES DROPPED?

WE NOTIFIED THE COMPANIES IN MARCH OF 2025 THAT WERE LOOKING INTO THEM, WHOOPS, EGGS GOT REALLY CHEAP.

TED: NOT A GOOD SIGN THERE.

AT THE TIME THIS WAS HAPPENING, HICKMAN'S WAS A FAMILY-OWNED OPERATION, CORRECT?

NOT ANYMORE?

>> NOT ANYMORE.

THEY WERE BOUGHT BY A SOUTH AMERICAN CONGLOMERATE, I'M NOT GOING TO PRONOUNCE IT, AND THEY ARE PART OF A LARGER INTERNATIONAL OPERATION.

THEY WERE A FAMILY OWNED OPERATION GOING BACK TO THE 1940s.

THE FARM USED TO BE OVER AT 99th AVENUE AND NORTHERN.

YOU LOOK AT CHICKENS AND CAN BUY YOUR EGGS.

OBVIOUSLY GOT BIGGER.

MORE CORPORATE CONCERNS.

THEY'RE NOT AS BIG AS THE OTHER TWO COMPANIES INVOLVED IN IT.

THEY WERE BIG ENOUGH SO THE THREE COMPANIES DECIDED WE CAN MANIPULATE THE MARKET, NOT JUST HERE, BUT THERE IS TEXT FROM GLENN HICKMAN TO THE OTHERS SAYING WE NEED TO BOOST THE PRICES IN THE NORTHEAST.

GREAT JOB TODAY.

TED: YEAH, YEAH, HAS THERE BEEN ANY REACTION FROM THE HICKMAN FAMILY.

>> ABSOLUTELY NO REACTION, ALL WE GOT WAS THE COMMENT FROM THE NEW COMPANY SAYING, THIS ALL OCCURRED BEFORE WE GOT HERE, SO WE WILL DO EVERYTHING TO STAY RIGHT WITH THE GOVERNOR.

WE REACHED OUT TO HICKMAN'S, HICKMAN'S ARE VERY OPEN WHEN THEY WANT TO BE, DURING THE AVIAN FLU, WE HAD TO DESTROY THIS MANY HENS AND PRICES OVER NEGOTIATIONS WHETHER THEY HAVE CAGE-FREE EGGS, THEY GOT VERY SILENT.

TED: WE HAD THE HICKMANS ON DURING THE AVIAN FLU EPISODE.

AND I WANT TO GO BACK TO THE COURT SETTLEMENT.

THIS NEEDS FINAL COURT APPROVAL.

>> GIVEN THIS IS A FOUR-WAY SETTLEMENT, THE THREE COMPANIES AND THE FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION AND THE ATTORNEY GENERAL'S OFFICE IN ARIZONA ALL PARTY.

EVERYONE SORT OF AGREED THE 3.25 MILLION EGGS FOR CHARITY, GREAT DEAL FOR FOOD BANKS, THAT'S ONLY FROM HICKMANs, OVER 50 MILLION COUNTING THE OTHER THREE.

>> THE DONATED EGGS, CRITICS ARE SAYING THIS IS BASICALLY THE COST OF DOING BUSINESS FOR SOME OF THE FIRMS.

>> THIS OCCURS EVERY TIME YOU GET A SETTLEMENT, AND ENDS UP GOING TO PAY THE LAWYERS OR SOMETHING ELSE.

TED: RIGHT.

>> THAT'S THE ISSUE.

WE CAN CONTINUE TO LITIGATE, IT GIVEN THAT GLENN HICKMAN IS NO LONGER RUNNING THE COMPANY.

THE NEW COMPANY WANTS A SETTLEMENT.

WHAT IS IT GOING TO TAKE TO GET US OUT OF HERE AND MOVE FORWARD?

THE FTC SAID ONCE WE START INVESTIGATING, THE $6 A DOZEN EGGS WENT DOWN TO AROUND $2.

TED: ANOTHER CURIOSITY IS HOW MUCH THE PRICE OF EGGS FACTORED INTO NATIONAL ELECTIONS IN 2024, 2022 TO 2025, THIS GOING ON DURING THE ELECTIONS.

THIS HAD AN IMPACT BEYOND THE PRICE OF EGGS?

>> CERTAINLY DOES.

LOOK AT ELECTIONS GOING ON NOW.

THE ELECTIONS IN ARIZONA IN TERMS OF WHO'S IN FAVOR OF HIGHER FOOD PRICES AND HIGHER TARIFFS.

THIS ALL AFFECTS IT.

NOW, DO I THINK HICKMAN FAMILY WAS BUSY TRYING TO DO SOMETHING TO HELP OUT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION?

NO.

I THINK THEY WERE INTERESTED, LIKE ALL THESE BUSINESSES, WHAT'S THE BOTTOM LINE?

HOW DO WE GET MORE FOR A DOZEN EGGS?

GIVEN THE UNUSUAL SITUATION, WHERE NOT LIKE WE NEGOTIATE EACH TIME.

YOU DON'T CALL UP THE HEAD OF FRY'S OR KROGER AND SAY I'VE GOT 80,000 DOZEN EGGS, WHAT CAN I GET FOR IT?

THEY HAVE AGREED TO PAY A THIRD PARTY FIRM THAT KEEPS TRACK OF THE BIDDING PRICES, WE HAVE AGREED TO PAY THAT AHEAD OF TIME UNTIL WE REALIZE IT'S NOT FAIR.

TED: HOWIE FISCHER, CAPITOL MEDIA SERVICES, HICKMAN'S EGG LOST 3.25 MILLION EGGS TO THOSE WHO COULD USE THEM.

GOOD STORY.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

>> MAKE A HELL OF AN OMELETTE.

TED: MANY PARTS OF THE VALLEY WERE HIT WITH A DUST STORM AND SCATTERED RAIN LAST NIGHT AS A MONSOON LOOKS TO HAVE SETTLED IN.

WE GOT A MONSOON FORECAST THAT THE STORM SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGAN LAST MONTH AND HEARD ABOUT A NEW WAY TO RANK DUST STORMS IN TERMS OF SEVERITY TO HELP RESIDENTS AND MUNICIPALITIES PREPARE FOR WHAT'S BLOWING IN THE WIND.

RANDY CERVENY AND RYAN HEISMAN FROM ASU'S GEOGRAPHIC SCHOOL OF SCIENCE AND URBAN PLANNING.

>> IT STARTS JUNE 15.

IT NEVER SEEMS TO START JUNE 15, DOES IT?

>> NO, IT ALLOWS US TO DO IT THE SAME WAY THEY DO HURRICANES.

WE DON'T HAVE HURRICANES ON JUNE 1 BUT THAT'S THE TECHNICAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.

WE'VE DONE IT SO IT ALLOWS TIME FOR EVERYBODY TO GET PREPARED.

NORMALLY WE'LL GET OUR FIRST GOOD STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON AROUND THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.

TED: YEAH, AND SPEAKING OF THE FORECAST FOR THE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION WEEK GOT A MAP HERE, A GRAPHIC THAT YOU BROUGHT ALONG AND IT LOOKS TO ME, AT LEAST, AMATEUR CLIMATOLOGIST, RELATIVELY ENCOURAGING?

>> IT REALLY DOES.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A GOOD MONSOON THAN WHAT WE'VE HAD FOR MAYBE THE LAST TWO OR THREE YEARS.

TED: DO WE KNOW WHY?

>> YEAH, WE DO.

IT'S PARTLY A RESULT OF THAT BIG EL NINO DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

AS THE PACIFIC GETS WARM, IT CREATES MORE HURRICANES AND THE MOISTURE FROM THE HURRICANES CAN GET PUMPED UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO US, SO WHEN WE SEE A MAP LIKE THIS.

TED: WHAT DOES IT TELL US ABOUT FALL AND WINTER?

NOTHING?

>> THE MONSOON ISN'T LINKED TO THE FALL AND WINTER, BUT EL NINO IS.

THIS IS SUCH A BIG EL NINO EVENT, THAT, YES, WE'RE LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL WINTERTIME AND FALL PRECIPITATION.

TED: RYAN, WE'RE GOING TO GET TO YOU WITH DUST STORMS IN A SECOND.

HAVE YOU ANOTHER MAP WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WE'RE EXPECTING FOR THE REST OF THE SUMMER, WHAT'S THAT SHOWING?

>> UNFORTUNATELY THAT'S TYPICAL ARIZONA, THAT WE'RE GOING TO GET HOT.

NOT AS HOT AS THE LAST COUPLE YEARS BECAUSE AS WE GET THAT MOISTURE COMING UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WE SHOULD GET MORE HUMIDITY, HUMIDITY KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES DOWN.

>> THE NORTHWEST OF THE UNITED STATES LOOKS LIKE IS IN A FRYING PAN, THAT HAS AN EL NINO FEEL, DOES IT NOT?

>> IT DOES.

THAT TELLS US THIS IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE EL NINO IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

TED: RYAN, WITH THE DUST STORMS, SOMETIMES IT RAINS, SOMETIMES IT DOESN'T.

YOU CAME UP WITH RANKING SYSTEMS AND ALL SORTS OF THINGS.

HOW DID THIS COME ABOUT?

>> IT WAS A MULTIYEAR PROCESS, IT TOOK AWHILE, RANDY HERE WAS KIND OF ORIGINATOR FOR GETTING ALL OF THE PEOPLE TOGETHER.

ABOUT TWO DOZEN STAKEHOLDERS FROM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THAT CAME TOGETHER TO DEVISE THE RANKING SCALE WE PUBLISHED.

>> WE HAVE A GRAPHIC.

THIS IS THE DUST STORM RANKING INTENSITY.

LIKE A ONE TO FIVE DEAL, RIGHT?

>> YEP.

IT'S TIED TO DUST CONCENTRATION, IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH DUST IS IN THE AIR, EACH SCALE THAT WE HAVE, EACH VERSION OF ONE THROUGH FIVE IS LINKED TO THE CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST.

TED: LOOK LIKES ONE IS DUST BUT FIVE -- AGAIN, WOULD THAT MEAN FIVE IS THE ONE YOU GOT TO BE CAREFUL DRIVING THROUGH AND FOUR AND FIVE?

>> THEY'RE ALL TIED TO A HIGH LEVEL OF DUST EXPOSURE, YOU WOULDN'T WANT TO BE OUTSIDE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME IN ANY OF THESE.

FIVE IS THE MOST EGREGIOUS, THE GREATEST ONE.

TED: WOULD FIVE BE A HABOOB?

>> THEY WOULD ALL BE DUST STORMS OR HABOOBS.

USUALLY CATEGORY ONE IS THE MOST COMMON ONE.

60% OF THE DUST STORMS ARE CATEGORY ONE, AND THOSE ARE SOMETHING THAT LEAD TO HIGH DUST EXPOSURE AS WELL AS THE LOWER VISIBILITY AS WELL.

TED: ARE THERE VARIABLES INVOLVED.

WIND SPEED, HOW FAST THEY'RE MOVING?

>> THE PRIMARY IS DUST CONCENTRATION BUT WANT TO THINK ABOUT OTHER THINGS LIKE DURATION, HOW LONG IS THIS EVENT LASTING?

LIKE THE WIDESPREAD OR ISOLATED, HOW MUCH OF THE VALLEY IS BEING IMPACTED?

AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS WHICH ARE A STRONG COMPONENT.

TED: YOU COULD HAVE A STORM THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE VALLEY, MAYBE NOT AS CONCENTRATED BUT BECAUSE IT'S SO BIG.

>> THE PRIMARY SCALE IS THE DUST CONCENTRATION.

TED: ANOTHER ONE, THE DUST DASHBOARD.

WHAT IS THIS ABOUT?

>> THIS WAS CREATED BY A SPECIALIST AT THE SCHOOL OF SCIENCE AND GEOGRAPHICAL PLANNING.

YOU CAN TAKE A LOOK AT STATIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY, WHERE THE DUST CONCENTRATIONS ARE MEASURED AND SEE WHAT THE PEAK CONCENTRATION WAS DURING THE EVENT FOR YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD.

TED: WHAT ARE THE NUMBERS AND COLORS MEAN?

>> PM10 IS FIVE TIMES SMALLER THAN THE HUMAN HAIR, AND THE NUMBERS ARE TIED TO BASICALLY THE CONCENTRATION OF TUFT.

MICROGRAMS PER CUBIC METER, IT'S DUST IN THE AIR PER CUBIC VOLUME.

TED: FOR THE COLORS, THE MORE RED -- >> RED OR DARKER BROWN IS THE SCALE WE SEE.

MORE RED ON THE MAP, THE MORE CONCENTRATION IS.

TED: IF YOU ARE DRIVING WEST AND YOU GO TO THIS THING, WAIT A MINUTE, THERE'S A LOT OF RED, MAYBE I SHOULD DRIVE EAST.

>> THAT'S A GOOD POINT.

THIS IS A POST-EVENT SYSTEM.

THIS IS SOMETHING WE LOOK AT AND WITHIN 24 HOURS WE HOPE TO HAVE SOMETHING ABOUT IT.

TED: RANDY, WE TALK ABOUT DUST STORMS, RANKING SYSTEMS, WHAT IS A DUST STORM?

CAN YOU BE IN ONE SPOT AND SEE A DUST STORM FORM AND MOVE AWAY?

>> YEAH.

BASICALLY A DUST STORM IS THE VISUAL KIND OF IDEA OF A THUNDERSTORM EXPLOSION, THAT WHEN A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS, WHEN IT STARTS TO DIE, IT PUTS OUT A PULSE OF AIR DOWNWARD, LIKE A BOMB BLAST.

WHEN THAT HITS THE GROUND, IT PICKS UP THE DUST AND STARTS TO MOVE IT FORWARD, AND WE SEE THAT AS A HABOOB, AS A DUST WALL THAT COMES IN THROUGH THE VALLEY.

TED: IF THE WIND IS GOING SOUTH TO NORTH, WHICH IT OFTEN DOES, HERE COMES THE DUST FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

MOST OF THE DUST STORMS IN PHOENIX DO ORIGINATE FROM ELOY AND WORK NORTH.

TED: YOU CAN BE SOUTH OF ELOY OR SOUTH OF -- AND YOU ARE GOING BYE!

>> THUNDERSTORM IS NORTH BUT YOU MAY NOT GET THE DUST ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TED: AS FAR AS DUST STORMS CONCERNED, IS RAIN ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY AFTER, OR CAN YOU HAVE RAIN AND THEN A DUST STORM?

>> USUALLY DUST STORM FIRST.

YOU CAN HAVE OTHER THUNDERSTORM CELLS THAT POP UP IF THAT HAPPENS.

IN MANY CASES WE SEE THE RAIN AFTER THE FACT THAT PULLS DUST OUT OF THE AIR AND CAN CHANGE THE RANKING SYSTEM.

TED: HOW FAR THE DUST STORMS GO?

LET'S SAY THEY HIT THE VALLEY, WHERE DO THEY GO FROM THERE?

>> DEPENDS HOW STRONG THE THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION IS.

TED: WE NEVER SEE THEM IN PRESCOTT, THEY NEVER MAKE IT?

>> THE TERRAIN STOPS IT.

TED: THE TERRAIN DOES.

AS THEY WORK THROUGH THE VALLEY, WHEN THEY HIT THE NORTH SIDE OF THE VALLEY, THEY'RE GOING TO COLLAPSE AND WE'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE DUST HEADING OUT.

TED: LAST QUESTION BEFORE WE GO, I ASK YOU THIS EVERY YEAR BEFORE THE MONSOON, SOME PEOPLE HAVEN'T BEEN WATCHING EVERY YEAR, WHAT CITY GETS THE MOST RAIN DURING THE MONSOON?

>> OH, FLAGSTAFF.

TED: BECAUSE?

>> BECAUSE OF THE UPLIFT.

AS THE DUST STORMS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CREATED BY FLOW THAT PUSHES UP FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AS THEY HIT THE TERRAIN, THE RIM, THEY GET PUSHED UP, THEY ARE CONSISTENT.

IN FLAGSTAFF, THEY GET ALMOST DAILY THUNDERSTORMS.

>> AND GET THEM RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY COMPARED TO US, WE GET THEM LATE IN THE DAY.

>> RIGHT.

TED: I GOT THAT FIGURED OUT.

GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE.

RANDY, RYAN, PLEASURE HAVING YOU HERE.

AND CONGRATULATIONS ON THE DUST STORM MODEL.

THANKS FOR BEING HERE.

AND THAT IS IT FOR NOW.

I'M TED SIMONS.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

YOU HAVE A GREAT EVENING.