Hello, I'm Catherine Anaya.

Welcome to Horizonte.

From the grocery store to the gas pump Hispanic voters are feeling the squeeze A recent Unidos US poll shows the cost of living, jobs and wages are among the biggest concerns heading into the midterms.

So how will those concerns translate at the ballot box?

And could they shift the Hispanic vote?

Joining me to break it down are Doctor Edward Vargas, ASU professor in Transborder Studies and Political Research and also a pollster, and Francisco Pedraza, Director Director of the ASU Center for Latino, Latinos and American Politics Research.

Welcome, gentlemen.

Nice to have you here.

Happy to be here.

Thank you.

So let's start by just mentioning that according to the UCLA Policy and Politics Institute, Latinos make up 1 in 4 of Arizona's electorate.

1 in 4.

So how important do you both think, And we'll start with you, doctor That voting block is going to be to the midterms?

Extremely important.

What we do know is not only here in Arizona but if we look at congressional district races which are I think the most important piece of this election they're largely represented in these districts.

So they ultimately will have and have the potential to win.

You know, if if they decide to vote Democrat to be on the Democratic ticket to win some of these elections and, and basically create a roadblock towards Trump's policies leading up to the next election.

Would you agree with that, Francisco?

I would.

I think it's also important to add that while the electorate is made up of 25% Latinos, the Latino population in Arizona is about 1 in 3.

It's about 30%.

The next thing we should probably talk about is the registration and voter turnout opportunity.

Yes.

Even though they're 25% of the electorate.

It's a whole other ballgame to actually get those souls to the polls.

Voter turnout is always a concern with a midterm election usually ends up being lower.

Is that the same concern for this November?

Yes, it certainly is a concern for this election, particularly here in Arizona.

Part of this has to do with the ballot.

I think the ballot initiatives there isn't really, in my opinion, some ballot initiative that people are just yknow, wanting to see passed you know, there was an education a ballot related to, vouchers and that has been stricken from being on the ballot.

So there is a lot to be concerned about.

Me, I'm personally concerned seeing some of these poll numbers that are around.

Those who say they were 100% certainly vote are around 60% saying that they're going to vote this election.

and that's lower than what we expect And we should be concerned about that.

Would you agree with that, Francisco?

I would I think that's exactly right.

What I would add to it is that in addition to understanding that most Arizona voters want to vote early, there are differences in the level of concerns they have regarding how they're going to vote.

So, for example, most want to vote early, and most of those say that they're going to do so by post office, that is by the mail.

But it's among these subgroups, right.

In this case, Latino women with the concern for whether vote by mail ballots will be counted is a little more elevated to the tune of 33% for Latino women, a little bit lower for Latino men, and the rest of Arizona's voters closer to 20%.

So how do you reach these voters Francisco?

Is there enough of an effort right now being made to get them to the polls?

There's huge efforts, and we know that those efforts extend and range from the political operatives that help Electeds make it to office, as well as a whole host of community anchor organizations that invest considerably in making sure that people get registered to vote and then know what to do.

As we approach Election Day, both for early day voting and on Election Day as well.

You have a lot of numbers that you're working with right now.

You collaborated with the ASU Hispanic Research Center for a survey about Arizona voters.

You served as a pollster, Doctor Vargas.

So you surveyed all voters, not just Latino voters.

What stands out to you the most from the results that you received?

That's right.

And I just want to point out that it's super essential, very, very important that when you're interviewing population and electorate that is as varied and as vibrant and rich as you find in Arizona, you got to make sure that you sample enough of those key demographics We did that with respect to Latinos, to the tune of 700 registered voters.

And that's key, because now that helps us unpack a couple of really interesting findings.

First is that most 70% of registered Arizona voters indicate that they plan to vote early.

Aha.

That's crucial.

But at the same time, we find that that varies between Latinos and non Latinos, as well as concern about the different ways that you can vote early.

Well, that is piggybacking off of what you said earlier, Doctor Vargas, about the fact that there is a lot of miscommunication and misunderstanding about what's going on with early mail-In ballots.

Right?

And I think that's been done intentionally.

I think the, administrations attempt to try to block mail voting So there are these structural things that are happening as well in terms of lines being redrawn.

Also, the fear that ice may be showing up at a polling site in some data that's coming out is showing that, they're going to be sending folks to the most highly Latino competitive voting areas.

And so this is something that concerns Latinos and worries them particularly as they see that their civil rights are being violated.

We're seeing this in a lot of our polls.

We're also seeing, you know, this not having to check and balance in terms of Congress being able to to balance what's happening at the at the executive branch.

So when you unpack this, Francisco, and there's so much to unpack with this survey, what are you finding most interesting about the demographics?

Well, two key things I'll highlight with respect to just getting these souls to the polls.

Number one is that about 60% of all Latinos indicate that they want to vote early.

That's compared to about 70% of non-Hispanics who say the same thing.

Where it really starts to get interesting is where we are, where we ask questions about concern regarding whether mail in ballots will, in fact, be counted.

Aha.

And that we find the elevated concern is concentrated among Latinas.

It's Hispanic women, about 33%.

That is 1 in 3 who say, I'm worried that mail in ballots will not be counted.

It's not as elevated.

It's a little bit closer to abou for non-Hispanics and Latino men Why do you think there is that elevation?

That's a great question.

We haven't had a chance to dig into with sophisticated statistical kind of explanation models to understand that.

But one reason that might be concentrated among Latino women is the same reason why women in general have concerns about registering to vote and making sure that they get access to that ballot.

They're more likely than their male counterparts to have changed their last names over the course Yes, we know that is a big concern.

Going back to the discussion about the independent or undecided voter, Doctor Vargas, how important do you think that they are going to be to the November election results?

Extremely important.

I think it piggy backs off what my colleague is saying here and that if we look at independent voters if we just did a nice analysis trying to understand who are who are independent voters because people assume they're in the middle.

And, you know, there are some people out there saying that maybe these are people on the fringes of the of the Democratic side or the Republican side.

So there's a lot of research that needs to be done on this.

But in our own analysis, we find that independent voters tend to be women.

I think a lot of people are maybe surprised to know that they tend to be younger, they tend to be unmarried, they tend to be more rural in nature.

They also tend to also like other things like pocketbook, you know, issues.

This is what really concerns them.

Now there are distinct from, for example, crossover voters, which tend to be male Latinos who tend to be in the sort of middle age category, middle income, more urban in nature.

they're the ones who there's something around 38% of of the national electorate, Latino electorate, are these independent voters, again, who tend to be women, who tend to be younger, who tend to, are looking at policies or policy that impacts them.

Let's talk about some of those concerns that you touched on pocketbook issues.

Francisco, what are you finding are the top 4 or 5 concerns among Latino voters right now?

Well, like many of the concerns that all voters have, they care about the economy.

They certainly are keeping an eye on things related to education policy and among the Latino community at this moment, for a variety of reasons, those concerns about immigration enforcement and the way that it hits home in personal ways and in their communities where they live, work and play kind of top of mind right now.

Would you agree with that?

Yeah.

But inflation wages, we find that, for example, a large support for some kind of minimum wage policy, health care expenses.

Immigration historically for Latinos has been kind of dropping down the list.

But that just came right back up If the economy is on the ballot and if there is leadership that can lead and have a policy to fix our economy, I think Latinos will go that way.

So when you look at those concerns, describe for me how you think that will impact the election, but also what the challenge is for both parties in earning the Latino vote.

I'd say let's meet our audience where they're most familiar.

The narrative that has really be lifted up over the last 2 or 3 cycles has been that there's been a trend that is kind of a pivot among Latino voters in support of the Republican Party, a little bit more than we've seen in the past.

And I think one of the challenges, at least from the perspective of the Republican Party, is that there's this sense of bait and switch promised lower prices.

You promised living wages that would be lifted up.

You promised that quality of life would improve as well.

And I think on that front, the Republican Party has a lot to chew on because they're wondering, have they,in fact delivered on this?

And for some Latinos, in case of tightening this on with immigration too it feels like betrayal.

Well let's talk a little bit more about the Latino voter who voted for possibly Trump in the previous presidential election may not be satisfied with the outcome of that right now.

Do you see them making a shift?

Do you see a shift coming our way in terms of going back to or just changing to a Democrat.

In our survey as well as others that we're keeping a close eye on It certainly seems to be that there's a trend that there's kind of this kind of regression to the mean, so to speak, to historical that says Latinos are kind of lifting their eyebrows up and asking themselves, is this what we wanted?

Not really.

Would you agree with that?

I would agree with that.

It's somewhere around 57% of Latinos who voted for Trump regret voting for Trump and won't vote for him.

In terms of some of the polls that we find, on average, around 57%.

So there is some buyer's remorse there, of these crossover voters they are particularly men, Latino men, particularly men in the middle income category who are urban, who said, hey, you're supposed to be leading on the economy.

That's what I want.

And so that's what we're seeing about 57%.

Let's go back to the survey for just a moment.

And this might be our last question, Francisco.

When you look at the results of this survey, what is, in your opinion, at the heart of the stories that are coming out of this survey?

Really, what I think it is, is that storytellers and folks who care deeply about American democracy are telling us we can identify harm.

That's not hard to do, and we'll continue doing that when it's necessary.

But the survey results are telling us that Latinos and all voters in general, are really hungry for a builder, somebody that's going to bring people together.

No more divisiveness, and that's starting to shine through.

I think in the responses that they're collecting to us, they're ready to move on and have a US democracy that works for everybody.

Are you seeing that, too?

Doctor Vargas?

Yeah.

People want checks and balances There's a very unpopular war in Iran.

Voters want issues that impact them here locally.

Locally, of course gas.

You know, part of this, I think this conversation is when we have a midterm election, which is really about the local It's really hard to see local folks trying to move on federal policy.

I will tell the viewers that if you can please go to the Secretary of State's website and make sure that you're being counted, that your name is there and you can verify that you're going to get a ballot.

That is a very important note to end on.

So thank you, gentlemen.

This is a, I knew it was going to be a robust conversation and we never have enough time.

So thanks for joining me I appreciate it so much.

And we will continue having conversations like these because they are important and they matter to you.

I'm Catherine Anaya.

Thanks for watching.