>> Venezuelans in Chicago are reacting to the latest in their home country.

Their now, former president here in the U.S.

to face narco terrorism charges.

But the outcome of that captured by U.S.

forces over the weekend far more complicated.

His vice president does our drug as has been sworn in as the new interim president, Venezuelans and others are wondering about both the Trump administration's motives for the capture and the ripple effect it may have across the region and the globe.

Joining us, our Robert Pape, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, terrorism specialist and the founding director of the Chicago Project on Security and threats.

Richard Porter attorney, longtime member of the Republican National Committee and former White House adviser to President George HW Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle.

And on Zoo.

We have Anna Gael Garcia, founder of the Illinois Venezuelan Alliance and Lena Britto, a professor of Latin American history at Northwestern University.

Thanks to all of you for joining us in ago.

Garcia, I want to start with you because this started for you with 02:00AM phone call Saturday from your family.

What did they tell you?

>> Well, I'm going need to that, you know, by 2 in the morning, I got the phone from my family in Venezuela and I was It.

They would contained to the we You they didn't know exactly what really that meant.

But but they say, you know, is happening.

And I say what is happening is that when I think he has taking my little out of the country and that that was that there was good feeling at that moment because as you know, we've waiting for 27 years just to see not only my delivery general from the country, but also, you know, died regime.

>> What was your initial reaction to hearing all of this?

You know, you said that, you know, it's a good feeling that that he was finally that he was finally moved because of the entire regime, which some of it is still in charge.

>> that that's study.

And when I said that every game is the go to know what expecting that there a little was removed.

We were waiting for word.

Want to wait in fortune it, but see what does.

were waiting for brother of COVID Rodriguez.

Who wouldn't you don't put the main that join the country in 27 years.

But that being happy.

So, you we need to wait up to And I think in moment.

I believe it was too soon for to make any assumptions or that the station's he what was going to happen next.

>> So that said, you know, with some members of the Missouri regime still in charge, many Venezuelans, you know, as as you've said, you know, we're celebrating what's happening.

But some of also taken to the streets in protest over what the U.S.

has done.

Are you concerned about what comes next for for Venezuela and you know, your family, your people at home.

>> we had we know that the regime, he says ceiling by you know, the regime controlling more than 150,000 but I need that is in the country.

I guess just to last night those But any that is the point.

He was that way, surely engine of the whole of Chicago could at this.

And and they are adding ejected the security go into that and judge of the food, the solution, you know, to see this in safety.

But 20 Swedes guest wing of the things.

I don't think that the Venezuelan right now, the Minnesota minutes, they believe that any to discuss happening except to because my little is knowing there.

But, you know, thinking about that, there's see what U.S.

who leads.

One of the key things of the destruction of the country is the the president into is something that need to think about a nice because they had to Okay.

Lena Brito want to get you in here because the U.S., you know, part of the Justic Haitian a justification for this from the United States is.

>> All the war on It is that the biggest reason for this attack or do you think, you know, the control of Venezuelan oil is is true reason?

>> Well, I the Trump, Regina, the Trump administration, has been very open about their true intentions and the true colors of these holding attention in their press conferences in Dayton document and his wife.

And every other a statement that Secretary of state Marco Rubio.

Has being doing in the last few days.

And I think at this point is very clear that the war drugs was kind of like a facade need show us that number justification for something so that really has to do with But also has to do with geopolitics.

It has to do with the Lions that they might do in regime.

Had we, Russia and China and Iran and how and there they need win national security train what has come to be known as the Trump quarter.

Larry, that type presence in the in Western Hemisphere is not going to be tolerated.

So oil isn't a strategic resource maskless while, but he's also about control of the whole hemisphere and Trump taking on the train that actually was created in the 19th century in early 20th century for very under very different kind takes.

So we'll see how he plays out in the 21st century with our technology and we are challenges.

>> Lina, you mention, of course, you know, Russia, China, Iran.

But what about even more regionally?

And, you know, as you mentioned, Trump's attempt to sort of like police, the Western Hemisphere.

What could the ripple effects be across the region and in the rest of the Western Hemisphere?

>> Well, if you look at of the media, mainstream media turn at the media, social media not going to marry in the Spanish right now.

The countries in South America are 2 terribly divided, polarized in concerned about what's happening because they are receiving these aggression.

These intervention in the U.S.

Why not as a message to the whole region.

So we know administration's the governments in the south particularly in Argentina and allies of the Trump administration that current government in Argentina under president, delay in the coming government Chile under and the president cast are allies of the Trump administration's.

And now he seems that Trump administration aiming for the north and there have of South America.

We Venezuela and Colombia and the strategy there is very different if we read national security reported that there were these in November, we understand where they're coming from the strategy for the Americas enlist and expand.

Anybody can download that document from Internet for free and enlist and expand is what they're doing right now in this state and bringing closer and allies and their friends and expanding their power to countries that style to the Trump administration.

>> Robert Pape, you've made some predictions about Maduro's capture of Venezuela or mederios capture and what it means for Venezuela.

You've said that there could be civil war.

Well, not quite someone a chaos, OK, OK, thank What do you see as the likely outcome This first of all is about, almost 100% about oil.

>> Maduro wouldn't make the deal that Trump wanted on oil.

That's why the Seas, Tim, this isn't just executing a warrant.

The oil was also with underneath the issue with China.

China buys Venezuela's oil.

So all comes back to oil and what Trump said from Saturday morning and on Air Force One and continues to say is this is about oil.

He wants control here and what its control ultimately mean, not protecting the oil and giving the oil to the people that as well.

That's why he doesn't want the Nobel Peace Prize winner.

He wants control of the profits of that oil.

That is a big problem for stability in Venezuela.

The reason that's a problem is because this regime is essentially a mafioso criminal style regime.

And we took off the top leader.

We decapitated it, but it runs on money.

It runs on holding business interests together.

Came off the military.

This is not a Jacqui, Unified regime.

And so you take a big hunk of that money.

Now that was going to the military, going to the intelligence going to pro government militias and you take half were 90% of that.

And you give that to Donald Trump to do out of the country given to the oil barons, get to the The oil companies who's going to pay the price the regime and what are they going to do?

They're going to be mad.

They're not.

They're doing this for a paycheck and they're going to be extremely angry and they're going to start a fight among themselves, making a real deal that's going to stick where you're going to hand off 50 to 90% of the profits to the White House.

This is a prescription for chaos in 2024, there was an election that followed economic sanctions.

Global pressure began to remove Maduro.

Was U.S.

intervention.

The only option?

>> No, this is we have been doing with instability, different problems, different regime for decades Latin America, South America, when we use heavy handed force when we were kids straight as the CIA has done a regime change is when we seize topple the top leaders, what we end up doing is injecting anti-Americanism into the problem here.

Donald Trump was even made it worse because it's not just the anti Americanism.

Now, it's not just the usual problem minutes.

The money has got to come through the White House and that's what Donald Trump is being very, very clear about.

He wants control of the financial flow and that is the big deal.

And that's what's going to be hard to hold that government together.

And it's why there are 10,000 Marines on those ships.

This isn't just naval air power because of those Marines may need to go in and start actually control away on the ground.

Those oil fields, which will create chaos in other ways.

This is primed for resistance and chaos.

Richard Porter, I know you've got thoughts things to say because I can I can see it on your face because you praised President Trump's actions.

>> In Venezuela citing that this will help lessen the influence of Russia and China in the region.

In addition to escalating the war on drugs.

Yeah, great.

I mean, the president ran on the skirt, stopping the scourge of drugs in this country.

And for the first time in our lifetimes.

>> The war on drugs is no longer a metaphor.

It's a real thing.

And so what are you what you see is going to the source of drugs here with his is action as Venezuela.

But in addition that, he stopped the border flow with interdiction is much higher.

Now.

Plus, the ICE raids is reducing the distribution network within the city.

So if you look at across the board, this is a full-court press on the drug >> It's very successful.

That's where the reason why crime is down so much in the American cities in the last year.

So this is this is like unalloyed, great thing that Donald Trump did.

And I think that people are looking for clouds where there are not.

This is a fabulous result.

The arithmetic is different.

If you're that vice president, she's now thinking through.

She knows the president isn't bluffing.

So the phone call she has with with Marco Rubio have a totally different tone when Marco says, hey, I want to do a B and C or the or else means something.

Okay.

And what they want to do is transition.

That's they recognize that a lot of force on the ground.

Those motorcycle gangs or bad news.

Okay.

But you're not going to go and have the Marines fight We want to have them start dismantling it from within.

And the reality is the oil is an important part of the strategic importance of in Venezuela.

That's why Russia in China where there plus there's uranium and gold.

That's Ron was there.

So hes below was there there.

This was a rat's nest of the bad people of the world, all of whom are using this as a base to try to make things worse for United States of America.

So you mentioned interim President, Rodriguez.

Trump has given her a list of demands, including cracking down on the drug trade, removing Iranian cook human operatives from >> the country and stopping the sale of oil to countries that opposed the U.S.

But later today, she has also said that Venezuelans are running the country.

A counter pointing the president saying the U.S.

will run Venezuela.

How can the U.S.

ensure stability in Venezuela without having to send in what is it that 10,000 carry right into a state where house and there they were poised go?

think the real question is what ultimately happens with security services in Venezuela and the military and to the leadership start recognizing that the way that they're gonna be able to spend the money they stole from Venezuela.

>> Is to stay alive and the state why they got to work with the United States.

They want to be in jail.

And so they're going to have to migrate this thing towards a situation where get as well as really are in control right now.

Cuba has been in control and you have China Russia and the Iranians, you can imagine the situation at the pretenders in at this point because she has Cuban sitting in the room with when she's talking and Marco Rubio and they're all are.

So she's got she's between a rock and a hard place and Trump is going to make it really hard for her and she'd have to turn against those guys or pay the price yourself.

>> On 80 casualties reported including 32 Cuban nationals and at least 40 identified Venezuelan nationals, some of whom were civilians.

There's also, of and damage to the infrastructure in Caracas.

A lot of this has been difficult for journalists to confirm because journalists are not allowed into the country from outside of the country.

How might the people of Venezuela recover?

>> you the good news that coming out Venezuela there.

didn't.

I think that we have more information from the outside than inside.

You know, the from and ask always, you know what is going on let us know because we can't reach the TV station, origin of really the the cities of or the information that happened inside the country.

We know goes Do any type intimidation that get the 70 that in that region that happening.

That's what these were going to happen.

But the you know, very concerned about as that would end it.

But we don't know how many they to this point.

We do not believe what is damage that has been done to deeming need CDs in the country both airports.

>> If if the Trump administration should point to this move whatever happens after, as you know, look, we've stabilized Venezuela, those of you who are in the U.S.

now seeking asylum are safe to go home.

What does all of this mean for Venezuelans who are currently in the U.S.

and hoping to stay here?

We're hoping to receive asylum here.

>> You we had having needs with every now and I think program I did think about that because that what is the removal my you know the situation in Minnesota stable?

It's just that he fired from that right now.

I think he has to be more prediction, too.

People who already here in the country and just wait, I think, to permit too, to be Cindy by collection of the homeland security to have really indicate in his city that, you know, that allies of frequently right now on because my little has been removed, you know, now people can go and be happy there.

I think it that we is there inappropriate to say at this point we don't have and say we're going to right now an ID that it would be people would be in during planned to go back over the that flows to collect.

>> Robert Pape does the capture President Maduro?

Does violate international law?

What women need directly talk about the idea that we're just gonna keep telling leaders until we get them So this called leadership decapitation.

It's the subject of my book bombing to win.

So I am one of we have studied this for decades.

I spent 3 years teaching for the U.S.

Air Force all about leadership, decapitation.

I'm extremely familiar with these missions.

The fact of the matter is for decades, we have seen killing of leaders say Russia killing to die of with our help.

That's a Chechen leader.

Israel killing has will leaders or Hamas leaders or the United States capturing Saddam Hussein or the death of Qaddafi over and over and over.

We've done wieder ship decapitate Jean, always with the threat.

You know what?

We're gonna kill the next one.

they don't obey, they don't know back.

And there's a reason for that.

It's because Rodriguez or whoever it is give sauce what Trump wants, a 50 to 90% of that money.

She'll be killed by her own people.

The people right next to her, her bodyguards.

The problem here is, yes, we can threaten be too with her name on it.

But there are pistols pointed right at head and all she has to do is not come up with the money for the next payment.

Just like in the mob movies.

is very, very dangerous.

Let's hope she's alive in 2 weeks, much 2 years from place for her to be.

Richard, same question to you.

And then I want to I want to give a want to clean debris to the last >> Well, look, >> I think the whole point here is is the change the way people are thinking about their future.

And I think that the rate has successfully done that.

And I think what they want to get people focused on is to recreate it constitutional democracy the rule of law said the rule of these gangs is where we're gonna end up.

It's not going to happen overnight.

There's got to be a transition period.

There isn't a massive opposition.

A lot of it is outside the country.

They failed socialist programs of the left in Venezuela drove 8 million people out of that country.

So this is risk of a multi faceted good We're addressing the root causes of the migration crisis.

We're addressing drug wars were pushing bad people out of our hemisphere, Russia, China, Iran.

So I think all the way around this is going to turn out to be a good thing with the course of time later Brito we've got about 45 seconds.

What is next?

business going to bring about a Democratic Venezuela.

>> I don't really know what is next because this is a Mary Sue Yen president that situation.

So everything that is going to be on full it's going to you.

But what we learn from history is that every time the United States for government when something like this in the hemisphere and ends batley and violence and instability.

So if you as me personally, I'm very pessimistic about whole situation.

And then if you asked me as a historian, I think story Coalescence are very clear and I cannot really recall one K's where these type of through patients on the part of the United States have what it meant.

>> So OK, so we know this part of history is written the rest of it still to come is the closest exit example.

And that worked out just fine.

All right.

We're going to have to leave it there next time.

I know you do you just to bring snow at Northwestern?

We're going to have to leave it know we're back to wrap things up right after this.

>> Reflecting the people