From Sky news.

This is connections.

I'm Evan Dawson.

Our connection this hour is made in another wild day in the markets.

And the markets are down big today.

Yesterday they experienced the kind of sugar high of the president's decision to pause part of his tariff plan.

But the early reporting yesterday afternoon claimed the president Trump had reversed himself entirely on tariffs.

And that is not at all correct.

What the president did was pause the frankly rather bizarre set of tariffs based on the White House's formula of reciprocity.

That was the formula that called for us to hammer countries like Madagascar, because we like buying their vanilla and they don't buy enough for from us.

For now, that part of the equation is on hold.

That's true.

But the white House kept a 10% across the board tariff, and it increased tariffs on China.

CNBC says the tariff on China is now 145%.

The markets are reacting to this growing trade war with China.

Today, the budget lab is out with a new and analysis of the tariffs, not last week's tariffs.

This analysis was done last night after the partial reversal from the president.

The budget lab, by the way, as a nonpartisan policy research center that aims to provide in-depth analysis of federal policy proposals for the American economy, what they find is a $4,400 tax hike per American household in the short term, from these tariffs not last week's tariffs.

The ones that are still in place, $4,400 per American household consumers now face, according to their analysis.

And overall average effective tariff rate of 25.3%, the highest since 1909.

So how are tariffs affecting small businesses?

How could tariffs affect businesses going forward?

This hour is going to be a little different.

We've invited small business owners from different sectors to join us in short bursts.

Just to kind of give us a snapshot of what they have been experiencing.

And listen, if you're in this category, if you're in small business and you want to weigh in, please do that.

You can call the program toll free.

844295 talk.

844295825526365.

Here in Rochester.

2639994.

Email the program connections@kci.org if you like.

If you're watching on our YouTube channel, you can join the chat there, the center's YouTube channel.

And by the way, tell us how the tariffs are affecting or could affect you no matter what direction, good, bad or the other.

That's what we want to know.

so let's start with this.

We've got the CEO of Green Spark Solar, Kevin Schulte, on the line with us.

And Kevin and I have talked about tariffs and these sort of economic turmoil and the possible effect on the solar industry.

And so now here we are.

And Kevin gets to lead off.

So first of all, how are you doing today.

I'm having the time of my life.

I feel like there's some sarcasm there.

It's strong.

Strong.

I'm glad you felt that.

Okay.

what has the last week been like since Liberation Day?

So called in, the tariffs.

what's it been like for you?

Well, my business partners haven't quite changed me my desk since Liberation Day, but I think we've been the way we've looked at it is we are struggling to find a path to protect ourselves.

Where we're at our core, we're a contractor.

The product we build is solar.

And so we're, you know, our first path was to look at all of our existing contracts and figure out what's left to procure.

What might the impacts be from our suppliers, and how do we handle the concept of, these tariffs.

And so we've done a bunch of that.

And that was a really a really short sprint, right.

For, for our largest portion of our business, it was 23 contracts across six customers, you know, each of which value five or more million dollars.

So we're trying to figure out how do we procure more effectively within that.

And then obviously they went away or went away in part yesterday.

You know, suppliers are telling us, you know, that most of our products will range between a three and 8% increase in cost.

and that's meaningful and effective.

And, and we hope to have the right, you know, legal language in place to protect ourselves.

But I think the bigger challenge that has happened now is just they're they're creating a freeze in our market for who's going to invest and who's not going to invest in projects and, and our projects that are, you know, started where costs have to go up, could it be abandoned and all of that sort of stuff that that people have become frozen on.

And that's where the biggest challenges, I think, come from the turmoil that's created more than the like, policy or thought process from the white House.

Okay.

So I want to make sure I understand part of this point here.

So is it that you use the word turmoil?

Is it just is another word for that uncertainty?

In other words, if you don't like the policy, but the policy is consistent, you can plan for it.

You know what's going to be there.

It will be stable, if you like or don't like the policy, but it changes by the day.

it is almost impossible to make long term or even mid-term plans.

Is that what your telling us?

Yeah.

That's right.

I mean, businesses are data.

You were led by data driven people, right?

We're trying to make business decisions, that are lasting.

I don't want to have to do this every day, you know, reevaluate my cost structure every day.

And so, yes, the day to day whiplash is harder than the policy itself, remember?

Right.

Tariffs in and of themselves are going to cause energy prices to rise.

My business is entirely driven by IRR.

The payback that a you know, the return on investment or payback that a customer gets on investing in a solar farm.

And so if if energy prices rise, then we can absorb some increasing costs, right.

So those things kind of work and make us a little bit resilient to tariffs on some levels.

How much do the energy prices rise?

How much to the country.

But when it's up and down and on and off like that just creates this freeze that people are like, I don't know what to do next.

And I think that, you know, over the last 48 hours has become more of the place our industry is in than the first five days since Liberation Day, when we were all just trying to scramble and say, are we protected?

How do we procure materials?

What is the cost increase is going to look like?

How much do I have that for, for customer and so on and so forth.

So I also want to ask you about the way that, that prices and, and buying, you know, I think those of us who are in the lay public are oversimplifying.

And I've learned this lesson in the last week by talking to a couple of people in small business, one in my own family, who do a lot of work domestically.

And so I actually thought that there may be some rejoicing in what we were seeing.

And it was the opposite.

What they told me was that when you have even if the tariffs were still in place, if you have this tariff on foreign goods, it doesn't just mean, well, now domestic goods are cheaper because domestic goods will compete and might stay cheaper by a dime or a dollar, but they're going to raise their prices almost in equal measure.

And that happened within hours last week talking to small business owners in manufacturing, in metal fabrication.

And so, you know, it's been an economics lesson for me.

I will say for you, that's probably not surprising, Kevin, but generally speaking, what is going to drive your costs the most going forward?

Is it stability?

Is it where it's coming from?

Is it a tariff?

What's going to drive costs?

Our costs will primarily be driven by, you know, metals, right.

Copper, steel and aluminum are going to be the primary drivers.

And then we have secondary drivers that are things like plastics and resins.

They often come out of China.

you know, those are things that are going to drive our cost.

And then the third thing that's going to drive our cost is like unfettered capitalism is the way I would describe it.

Right.

You've got a if if a civil constructor that just real time, right.

A civil contractor calls me and says my costs are going up while fuel is actually down at the moment, and aggregate and stone are not being purchased from, you know, out of the country and our provides for, you know, so that's just someone saying to us, we are going to take this opportunity to try and make more money.

And so those are the those are the the things that are happening out in the marketplace.

And the last one is the unknown.

Right.

And and you saw a lot of that, you know, from 2022 when you had the economic certainty and you sort of coming out of Covid until 2025, where some things, even though, like, you know, the price of steel has dropped over that period of time, the price of solar racking went up.

And that's because they figured they could charge more money for this product.

And so they did.

And so like you look at things like that and that's just, you know, the capitalist capitalism piece of the markets just sort of kicking in and saying, I will charge whatever I can for my product, and I'm going to use these tariffs and, economic uncertainties and things of that nature to, to drive those price decisions.

All right.

A couple other quick things for you.

Kevin Schultz, CEO of Green Spark Solar.

Last fall, you took us through kind of different scenarios of possible outcomes with the election and in your mind, sort of best case, worst case scenarios right now.

Can you briefly describe what a best case, worst case economic scenario is for your business this year?

Given everything that's happening right now?

Yeah, I mean, a good economy makes our business more robust, right?

So a growing economy, growing jobs, you know, and keeping costs at a reasonable price is the best outcome for us.

Right.

So this tariff nonsense, the hope is that over the next 90 days that our past trading partners come to the table and negotiate with our white House to figure out what's going to make it so that there is a reasonable set of costs, on our business.

And we hope it doesn't take too long because, again, I said the turmoil is what causes the most problem, for us.

So that's that's the ideal outcome.

And then and then then then, you know, from an overall government perspective, right.

The House of Representatives passed the budget this morning.

We're worried about that stuff.

And that's a whole nother whole nother part of the story.

And we'll see what happens.

Yeah, we'll talk in the future, I'm sure about that.

Last question for you is on this idea of on shoring.

And I take the point that, for example, the United Auto Workers made on this program when Dan Maloney came on this program and said, hey, we've got plenty of criticisms of Trump, but the UAW is not opposed to tariffs, generally speaking.

Now, he said, we don't want indiscriminate trade war with the whole world.

We want targeted tariffs that make sense based on who has had advantages and industries and the UAW said, Dan said on this program, you're not going to see a car factory come to the United States this year if the tariffs stay.

But if they are consistent, if the policy is stable, UAW is thinking we have three years, four years, five years that it could happen.

I think that they're less optimistic now given all the instability.

And that point is well taken.

But is there a in your view?

You know, sometimes you hear people on in this white House and the political right say, hey, don't we want to make more solar here?

Is there a tariff path to insuring manufacturing in that sector that you can see?

The hope is the under the IRA, under Biden, they, gave an incentive for manufacturing, solar equipment in the United States.

And then they gave an additional incentive to the purchasers.

if we purchased domestic content for our products, we went in that direction in 2026, the United States will produce more solar panels in the United States.

As a result of that, IRA will produce more solar panels in the United States than we use.

We will actually start to export solar panels out of the United States because of that policy.

So that took 3 or 4.

By 2026, will have taken four years for the policy to be put in place and actually impact the market in that way.

And so I think, you know, this is where, you know, the American system of government turning over every four years is challenge.

If tariffs can work in a targeted fashion.

We all understand that Obama tariffs solar out of China.

Trump tariff troller solar out of China.

Biden tariff solar out of China in a targeted way.

And that all led to we have now on shored a significant portion of the supply chain where solar is now an American form of energy.

and so but consistent industrial policy would go a long way towards, towards sustainable and an industry like ours in many industries.

And so I think that's the challenges that we have different views of how to get this stuff done.

And hopefully one doesn't unseat the other in trying to create success.

Enjoy the rest of your week.

Thanks.

Now Kevin laughs.

He's trying to keep his head up, but we appreciate the time.

Kevin Schultz, CEO of Green Spark Solar, come back.

Talk to us about the federal budget when it's not.

When it's done, we'll do.

thank you.

We are talking to small business owners and people in the small business sphere, people who work in development in different ways, who are seeing the possible effects of tariffs.

And again, I want to say we're not teeing this up in a way that says we know what people are going to say, oh, there's any agenda.

There's no agenda here.

We want to understand what's going on.

Because, it is possible that every American household is about to start paying more at the budget lab.

As I mentioned, off the top there analysis last night, not last week.

Last night, after the partial reversal from the Trump administration and in tariffs, not a full reversal at all.

But the budget lab says a $4,400 tax hike per American household is coming in the short term, and consumers now face an overall average effective tariff rate of 25.3%, which is the highest since 1909.

So let's continue the conversation.

And I want to bring in Suzanne Hunt to the program.

And Suzanne has worked as a member of sustainable business community.

Suzanne has advised companies and continues to do so.

And welcome back.

Thank you for making time for us on this program today.

Suzanne.

Sure.

Good to be here.

So, I, I want to just kind of take your 30,000ft view before we get a little bit more specific, but what is the last week been like for the people that you have worked with regarding tariffs?

So I work with a whole bunch of folks that are developing, financing, and building infrastructure, green infrastructure projects.

And, you know, these are projects that, you know, sort of like an auto manufacturing plant.

They can take three, four, five years to develop.

So you are you are getting access to land, you are getting permits, you are doing you are, you know, figuring out your cost of inputs, things like steel you are getting, figuring out your capital costs, what your estimated operating costs are going to be.

and for big investments and big infrastructure that has a long lifespan and has a long payback period, uncertainty and unpredictability is is just the worst possible thing.

So what we're seeing is a whole bunch of capital.

To answer your question more directly, we're seeing a whole bunch of capital sitting on the sidelines and a whole bunch of investments being paused because they're there's so much new risk being introduced, introduced and so much uncertainty being introduced.

But this is a white House that says the chaos is actually part of the possible future.

Although Trump himself didn't say that this time.

I mean, he said yesterday he basically was responding to the bond markets and got spooked.

But some of his advisors have said, well, chaos is helpful because if there's chaos, if you don't know if we're going to pull this policy tomorrow and reinstitute reinstitute it in 90 days, or maybe we'll keep it on for another week and we'll take it off again, that you're more likely to play ball and we'll get the better deals.

And you seem to be saying that is a a theory on paper.

And in practice, chaos and uncertainty is not what drives people to make long term decisions.

Is that a fair, fair read of it?

I can only speak for what I'm hearing from infrastructure investors.

And they, you know, when they go into when the investment committee sit down with a series of potential investment opportunities and they are assessing CapEx, opex, estimated, you know, cost of capital, and you introduce all of this unpredictability and uncertainty and all of these, you know, say, say one of your big offtake contracts is with a buyer across the border in Canada.

And suddenly that buyer says, I can't find any contracts with you.

because I don't know what my what the tariff cost is going to be.

Suddenly your offtake disappears.

like a whole bunch of, of investments are now suddenly off the table.

I can't speak for what this administration is trying to accomplish, but I can speak for for large infrastructure investors that are trying to put steel in the ground in the US and, and hire a bunch of folks to do good work, and that this is making it much, much more difficult and much less likely that those investments are going to go forward.

One other question for you before I let you go, and I know your time is tight and I appreciate you coming on.

One of the things that you have talked about on this program over the years is the urgency that is required to address issues like climate change in a way that is sustainable.

And that's not not as a buzzword.

But by that I mean cultural and sort of mindset changes that involve a lot of people across industries.

Sometimes across borders and countries working together, setting goals, you know, competing.

But but continuing to, to understand that, that part of the larger goal here is achievable.

And I'm wondering what it's like for you to see the adversarial nature of this administration.

Do you see any benefit to the adversarial nature that says we're changing our approach?

It's going to be purely transactional, that we view deals.

And this is what the Trump administration says.

We view deals as a zero sum game.

So there's always one winner, one loser.

And we're going to aim to be the winners.

And we don't care if you are the losers.

Does that change how we are trying to solve big problems around the world?

What I will say is that we live in a very interconnected world.

the United States is a massive a massive player in the world.

And when you're steering a massive step, you don't yank the wheel in one direction or the other.

You make a well thought out, careful adjustments so that folks who are putting their skin in the game and risking their neck to go out there and do the things that the world needs, like you know, like building infrastructure, like hiring folks, like being responsible for, for for their income and their livelihood.

You don't yank the rug out from under under them.

You don't yank the wheel.

And and because we are because effectively, that's what this policy of on again off again dramatic tariffs is doing.

It is creating a huge amount of animosity towards the United States.

And unfortunately, it's towards the United States, not towards the Trump administration.

So we have you know, it's really difficult to go, you know, doing business in Canada, doing business in the UK with some of our longest, best, strongest allies.

You know, you have, the city of Toronto and a whole bunch of province, the province of Ontario passing, new passing, creating new policies to buy Canadian and literally to making it impossible for American companies to bid on contracts because they there's such a backlash towards the United States right now.

But there's not a distinction of saying, look, the government is not the people and, you know, administrations are temporary, etc..

They're using whatever tools they can to try and fight back.

Yeah.

Thank you for making time and for sharing your perspective.

Great to have you as always.

Thanks.

Thanks for having me.

yeah.

Suzanne Hunter who works in sustainable business development, in a number of places.

And yeah, it's been a week.

We're talking about the effect on, of tariffs, on the economy, on prices, on what small businesses are dealing with and the decisions that have to be made.

One of the things that, was clear for the last couple of months in talking to the UAW and talking to economists and talking to small business owners was, if we're going to do this, we better stick to it if you want.

If you really claim you want more manufacturing, more on shoring, more jobs here, and we just see this whiplash back and forth.

So that's what we are talking about on the program today.

Let me read a note from Charlie who wants to share his family's business experience.

He says, my wife has run a design and build firm for over 30 years.

Yesterday she showed me a photograph of a bathroom she completed just two days ago, and she told me this if I had to build this exact same bathroom with the post tariff costs, I would lose money on it.

I can't think of any clearer way of explaining what's going on with these ridiculous tariffs.

We live in a global economy.

Mr. Trump apparently does not understand that.

that's from Charlie.

And by the way, it's a lovely bathroom.

We're not going to share it to protect the privacy of the client, but it looks great.

Charlie, I do appreciate the business perspective there.

after we take our only break of the hour, we're going to continue talking to small business owners about what they are experiencing so far as we try to get a handle on the effect of tariffs on companies small business, the prices we pay and more connections continues in a moment.

I'm Evan Dawson Friday on the next connections 200 years of the Erie Canal.

There are some events coming up to tell you about, but perhaps more importantly, what is the future of the canal?

Do we use it in the same way that we always did?

Do you use it?

You think about it.

We'll talk about the future of the canal in our second hour, a new show at Jeeva is going to be pushing some buttons, and we'll talk about it on connections.

Support for your public radio station comes from our members and from Mary Carrie Ola Center, providing education and life skills solutions designed to empower individuals and the families of those with complex disabilities.

Mary Carrie Ola, center Transforming Lives of People with disabilities more at Mary, Carrie, ola.org and Excel is Blue Cross Blue Shield with a mission to address health inequities by building up communities and breaking down health barriers that excel is Blue Cross Blue Shield everybody benefits more at zealous bcbs.com.

This is connections.

I'm Evan Dawson.

We want to continue to hear from you this hour and in the days and weeks to come about the effective tariffs on the prices that you're paying and on if you're in small business.

We especially want to hear from you on that.

And again, I want to hear all perspectives.

I'm not teed up in any direction here.

I'm not hearing a lot of good things.

I have heard from some small business owners in the last week that, that if this led to some sort of a manufacturing renaissance in this country, that their businesses would benefit and that that could be a good thing, but they have echoed what everyone else is saying, which is, how are we going to get there without a consistency of approach, without a consistent and stable environment that makes it easy to invest with certainty.

There's not a lot of certainty right now.

And, I'll tell you one thing I'm certain about, it's nice to hear Jain again.

It's been a little while.

Jane in Rochester.

Hi, Jane.

Go ahead.

well, he does not seek to have stability.

He doesn't.

Do you remember when he was campaigning and there was violence?

The groups were creating violence, and he just in a rhapsody, almost, said that's what we've got to have.

We've got to have violence.

We've got to have people in the streets.

And I think they used to call that creative destructiveness.

But if everything is chaos, that is what they need to get martial law in, for instance.

And again, he breeds Hitler and all that and that that was the what.

You know, the more, destructive I can't they took everything, from people, you know, you don't have a home anymore.

You don't have food.

A pint of milk is, $200.

I mean, it was that way in Nazi Germany, but I'm saying it was used as a technique for him to get greater power.

And, when everybody's scared to death and it goes to pot.

But it's important to me to know that that was.

Remember?

Do you remember at your your answer that he was actually saying that would be a good thing?

You know, that there's, there's nothing of value in our country, especially democracy.

But, I, I just want to get the idea in that, this may be exactly what he wants.

So think about it.

Okay?

And, yeah.

Just couldn't hold back today.

I had to say that because I very much heard that.

And yet people went out and voted for this man who thinks violence and.

And the only thing I can think of is that Hitler used to get, complete power.

Complete power.

And he thinks a lot of Adolf Hitler.

But I'll let you go and listen more.

It's a good program.

Great.

Jane, I always appreciate hearing from you.

That's a about as strong as Jane has, I think.

Ever, expressed an opinion.

I, look, I don't want to go down roads quite that dark right now.

I, I think Donald Trump has been consistent since the 1980s.

He he likes tariffs.

He views trade as a very rudimentary thing in which there is one winner and one loser.

And so if you we used this analogy analogy last week, if you're Madagascar and you make vanilla and you're a poor country otherwise, but you've got a booming vanilla business and you sell your vanilla around the world as they do, and Americans love your vanilla, but you're not a rich country and there's nothing there's not much from America that that you want to buy.

Well, we've got a trade deficit with Madagascar.

We buy more from them than they do from us.

Hammering them because we like their vanilla is a weird thing, but I don't think it's because Donald Trump wants $200 cartons of milk.

Jane I don't know, but I, I think it's because he really believes in tariffs.

He just uses the zero sum game.

He views all deals as one winner, one loser be the winner.

Don't be the loser.

And so, he's going to have to be continue to be talked out of this.

He talked himself out of it yesterday as he said, he told reporters the bond market was kind of getting spooky.

And that scared him.

That scared a lot of people and that was enough.

But I think he's going to stay with tariffs for a while if he's consistent at least.

And he has been since the 80s on this.

So I think he thinks it's good.

We're going to see.

Let me bring in our next guest who is the owner and chef of Lento Restaurant in Rochester, talking about food and prices we're paying in restaurants.

And Art Rogers, welcome back to the program.

Thanks for joining us.

Hello.

Thank you for having me.

So any effect in your line of work so far with tariffs.

So not really I'm going to say, mainly because they've been implemented and then pulled off, some of my 2 or 2 of my areas that have been affected where they have been nervous, but it hasn't taken effect is, European wine.

And for Lento, at least to a smaller extent, seafood.

because I do get a decent amount of seafood from Canada.

but because those things were implemented, not implemented, I haven't seen, any, any pain from, from those things that I would deal with food wise.

So what happens if that Canadian tariff on seafood goes back into effect?

Do you decide.

Well, that we're not we're not offering that anymore.

Do you pass a price on to customers and do you know how much of an increase we would be talking about there?

Well, it'd be dependent on how much the tariff is.

and a yes, both those things you said and and or they both could be true.

can probably supplement American for a lot of things.

And I know we are probably in better shape food wise in America, to, shift to domestic production for food as opposed to maybe, large scale manufacturing, like making cars or computers or whatever, where we have to build huge factories.

we're not I don't think we're in any danger of, like, being starved out.

it's easy.

Easier probably to, implement large scale agriculture quickly as opposed to large scale manufacturing.

I also don't know, because I deal with local farmers where, you know, chicken feed comes from or fertilizers come from.

So there may be some indirect costs that they could be affected.

That is passed on to me, but I haven't seen any of that yet.

But everything's been going up and down.

Pause and go, so, you know, just like everybody I'm watching day to day what's going to stick?

Well, your idea, though, I think you're right to say that building new car factories is not as viable as scaling up food production.

If it had to happen or if people wanted to do it, is that a possible benefit that you see of tariffs?

Should we focus more on American food production?

Even I have no idea.

I buy most of my food locally from like local farmers.

I mean, I'm not completely naive.

Like a lot of seafood comes from China.

I if you go to the restaurant depot, you know, shrimp and squid and, you know, frozen fish, almost 100% of it does come from China.

I don't buy any of those things.

So that could affect a lot of other restaurants.

I know a lot of beef comes from Canada, Australia, Mexico, South America.

So, yes, like those that type of thing could be more of an affect for other restaurants, but I think it would be, I don't know if it would be.

I don't know if it would be a benefit.

Okay.

I guess if if Donald Trump thinks, you know, he wants everything made an American born America, I suppose, I don't know.

Okay, well, before I let you go, I want to say, you know, art is reminding us that Lento from the beginning has really focused as much as possible on local food production.

And a lot of people have who are customers there have appreciated that.

as a result, you know, sometimes if you're willing to pay more for local, you do that and you let people know where it comes from, and you try to figure out what your customers can bear.

How much of a price increase in the restaurant industry do you think American diners can bear?

How much?

When prices move?

Do you notice reservations going up or down?

Art.

So, I have noticed that, so sort of related, of course, to my business.

the fluctuation in the stock market is the first thing you're going to cut out if you're losing your hat, on your stocks is going out to eat.

Going on vacation.

So we have noticed, since the stock market plummeted, that we have lost business.

And then in the last week, just in the last week, you're saying.

Yeah.

Wow.

Okay.

you know, and I think it makes sense then, you know, even if it's just like, in your head, like, I just lost thousands of dollars in the stock market, like we're not going out.

We're not spending money.

That is the that's the biggest thing that is keeping me up at night is, you know, going out to eat is a luxury.

It's something, you know, not everybody can do all the time.

And it's an easy thing to cut out of your budget if you are financially strapped.

So the economy and the stock market plummeting is definitely stressing me out.

And causing me anxiety.

you know, don't look at today's market art day.

If you already look at, well, you're not you're going to be mad at me, but I haven't I haven't turned on the radio yet today, so I don't know what's going on.

I can never get mad at you, Art, but I know I usually listen to NPR all day, but, Yeah, I don't know.

I think yesterday was up.

Today, I guess this morning they said it was down.

I did listen to it on the way to where it is.

it is you know, it's, you know, just like the uncertainty talking about.

And it makes everybody nervous and, yeah.

So that that's my biggest, that's my biggest concern is, you know, making sure people have enough disposable income so they can go out to eat once in a while.

yeah.

I appreciate the point.

I was thinking all about supply chains and prices, and I wasn't thinking about the psychology of the market swings affecting the weather.

People make reservations.

Well, your phone's.

We're going to let you get it out.

Thank you for taking time for us.

Yeah.

Anytime.

Thanks, Ivan.

Art Rogers, chef and owner of Lento.

and this is a series of conversations this hour with small business owners about what they're experiencing, up or down or otherwise, from a wild week in the markets and certainly from tariffs.

And if you're wondering, hey, well, why are you talking tariffs today?

The president reversed tariffs yesterday.

That is certainly not fully true.

It is not at all true with China who is you know the biggest dog out there.

So 145% tariff on China remains in effect.

That's a big one, 10% across the board.

What the president scrapped was this strange, heavily criticized white House analysis of how to create a balanced trade formula with every country on Earth.

So that's paused for 90 days, but all these other ones are staying.

And that's partially, I think, why the markets are tanked today.

But again, I'm not going to get addicted to trying to figure out the markets day to day.

It's just been wild swings.

And my next guest, can talk a little about the kind of product that, well, that tends to come from.

I think I had a cup of coffee from Ethiopia this morning.

ugly duck coffees.

Rory Van Grohl is with us.

Hey, Rory.

Thanks for making time.

You're welcome.

Thanks for having me, Evan.

So, tell us a little bit about the coffee world, which does work with products that come from other countries quite often.

What's it been like for you?

Well, immediately.

You know, I think I'm going to piggyback off on one art from once.

I was saying I think it's more of the uncertainty.

we are a luxury item.

and so people can choose to come visit us or they can, you know, choose to visit elsewhere, buy coffee from the grocery market.

that's cheaper.

So, we have seen that effect.

You know, people are already starting to scale back their purchasing, and that's totally understandable.

but I would say on the global scale, you know, we are, looking at a product that coffee is 99% imported into the United States.

1% is domestically sourced.

and that's, that's the fact and that's probably going to stay that way forever.

We can't onshore manufacturing of coffee.

we cannot do that now.

We can.

We can onshore manufacturing coffee equipment.

But, which happens, but not not the actual coffee.

We just don't have good conditions like we see in so many other countries.

Is that a that is that is a fact.

You know, the the the belt of coffee is in between the Tropic of Cancer and Capricorn.

the coffee belts.

Do you know how truly dystopian it is when my brain was like, yeah, but climate change, I mean, that's not it's not a healthy thing to think I should not be.

the reality is for coffee, it, as Rory says, comes from a lot of different places.

And so, you know, we used Madagascar vanilla earlier this hour as an example.

But I'm thinking about Ethiopian coffee.

I love Ethiopian coffee.

wonderful.

You know, it is.

And there's a country where, you know, we may have quote unquote, a trade deficit because we love their coffee, but that's not, a wealthy country.

They're not buying a lot from the United States.

And so technically, we're at a deficit.

And this white House would say, well, we're losers then, and we got to hammer them, or make them buy more of our stuff.

and, you know, again, I think we're all just trying to get our heads around what that actually means.

Does that make any sense to you, Rory, that, you know, these countries where you're bringing in coffee from?

Should we look at it in those sort of bilateral winner loser terms?

Personally, no.

I mean, that makes no sense in the grand scheme of creating any good partnership with anyone across the board, in my opinion.

you have to have good faith in certain aspects of, of how you do business and how you operate.

and I don't believe that's a positive way to extend that.

it's not always going to be I do this now, you give me this now kind of relationship.

And I think that's kind of where unfortunately, we're in this administration at this point.

Melissa from Fairport called in to support Jane's comment, earlier.

Call this our Melissa says the chaos in the markets is planned.

The intention is to stoke fear and, another commenter on YouTube says, I'm more worried about the world's coffee than oil.

a lot of people are worried about the world's coffee.

So just before we let you go, Rory, just briefly, are we likely to see higher prices passed to consumers?

Can you afford to eat any of the higher costs if tariffs either stick or rise, what happens next?

you know, I think ultimately coffee is going to rise based on something you hinted at before.

It is climate change.

And that is something that the coffee industry has been talking about for years at this point.

you know, right now, my understanding of the tariff situation is that there's a 10% increase across the board now, but somewhere like Vietnam, there's, over 40% moment right now.

and for us to navigate any, climate change situation, we're going to have to navigate and bring in other varietals of coffee right now, which is robusto, which is something we typically haven't used in specialty coffee.

And, over the past months, we actually just served a robust, for the first time ever, because our industry is changing to navigate climate change.

And, if we're not able to navigate that, then you know, coffee is going to see a huge shift.

and with a 40% tariff on Vietnam, we're going to see our reboost and production, or at least what we see in the States is going to be dramatic shift.

and, you know, I think from what I understand, the US is one of the biggest consumers of coffee, in the entire world, if you can imagine that.

And so I do think that you will see, an increase in the cost of coffee, and the folks that, you know, buy it every day has already seen an increase.

And they'll continue to see that increase.

Thank you for making time for us, Rory.

you know, we just want to make sure we keep getting these perspectives, and, we appreciate what you do.

Everybody loves.

Well, most people love coffee.

People are good.

well, I, you know, and I will say to you, like, I think that most, places that are serving coffee and restaurants and hospitality don't take these things lightly and are really understand and are alongside with the folks navigating those issues there at the grocery store.

They're also visiting other places so they understand.

So let's let's give some grace for those folks that are working in those positions to thank you for making time.

Rory, talk to you soon.

All right.

Take care.

Bye.

Rory Vann, grow from Ugly Duck Coffee in Rochester as part of our series of conversations this hour with small business owners about the impact of the wild week on the market in the last week, but really about American economic policy right now, the effects of tariffs around the world and the effects of supply chains, products and prices on consumers.

And my next guest is Fred McGrath, who is the owner and winemaker at Herman J. Weimer Vineyards on Seneca Lake.

They got a nursery business there, too.

They do a lot.

Fred, welcome back to the program.

Thanks for making time for us.

I have, and thanks for having me on.

Too early to see effects of tariffs on your business or no.

it really depends on the as you as you said, it depends on the aspect of the business at the moment.

So, or the area of business.

So the nursery side, as you mentioned, we're a producer of grafted grapevines that we sell around the country.

we with, two other New York based nurseries just started to produce certified nursery plants in the last two years, to be able to sell directly into Ontario and, and then distribute throughout Canada.

And, so we send our first certified vines there this spring.

I have a really great relationship with some growers there.

And, based on tariffs and, you know, the really as Rory and Art mentioned, you know, the uncertainty, I don't know if I have a market there next year.

they they need plants.

They want clean plants that are coming out of New York State.

But, there's no commitment.

they just won't commit based on, uncertainty and potential higher costs.

So that's that's one that we're seeing directly impact us at the moment.

What about the kinds of materials you need to get a winery working to get wine bottled and out, any effect on prices or what you're seeing there?

Yeah.

You know, that's going to be just a little slower to to realize, you know, people including ourselves, who have, you know, the last vintage 20, 23 or 20 twos that are in bottle, that won't be that won't show up in the market.

But, you know, as, as a producer, grower and, and winemaker, we're getting ready to bottle our 2024.

So, you know, just do quick math from last week as I'm putting together our, our glass orders.

All of our glass comes from Europe.

you know, a lot of producers are buying glass from Mexico or from China.

we choose to buy all of our glass from Europe.

with the tariffs in place based on, you know, bottling under glass with cork, we were going to see about $0.25 per bottle, increased cost.

now that doesn't show up in the market for another six months or a year or whenever that wine gets released.

But that's a cost right up front for us.

you know that that doesn't feel good for sure.

And lastly, Fred, and then I'll take some phone calls because, boy, we've this is really rung the bell of the audience a lot of, a lot of phone calls here.

Fred.

I just want to close with this.

You know, art Rogers of Lento was saying that when there's wild swings in the market and the markets are down, then they're up a little and then they're down a lot.

People stay home or people don't get that cup of coffee out, or maybe they don't get that wine order in.

And, and I, you know, I wonder what you think consumers will absorb from from your consumers at Herman J. Weimer.

you have a lot of regular customers and members, but for people who show up on a daily basis or on weekends or in wine shops around the region, around the country, are you worried about sales dropping just because of those factors that aren't mentioned to?

Yeah, and I think I need to to just mention, that, you know, the the wine industry globally, isn't coming into this in a particularly healthy position.

lots of competition from other beverages, you know, overall worldwide, consumption is down.

So, you know, we're getting as a local producer here, as, you know, with with national and international markets, we are certainly getting creative of trying to get more people to the winery.

But then, you know, as, as Rory mentioned, you know, and art specifically about, disposable income and watching the stock market, how is that going to affect people coming out on a weekend to taste wine, you know, are they going to be like, well, maybe not this weekend or I'm going to hold off on that, that splurge or that, you know, I am certain we will see that, because it is a luxury item.

It's, it's it's, it's not ingrained in our culture like a lot of the European countries.

So, you know, it is, I think, very much, you know, a, a dollar thing, that, that we will see.

Thank you for making time.

We appreciate it.

Good luck to you and to all the small business owners.

And, in your line of work down in the Finger Lakes.

Thank you.

Fred.

Evan, thank you very much.

Fred McGrath, owner and winemaker at Herman J. Weimer Vineyard.

And let me get some of your feedback here.

Celia, Camille, Kim, let's talk about this Celia in Rochester.

Go ahead.

Yeah, I, I, I really appreciate this conversation that I think that one of the things people have to this administration is beginning to find a million different points.

And on surface, you know, two fields intersect.

I mean, one, and we're trying to bite things down and talk about each one.

I mean, I know you have two separate things to talk about, but I just want to say, like when the guy from Lento was talking about, how we need to upscale food production in this country tremendously.

Well, food production in this country is completely dependent on immigrant labor.

in many fields in the food factory, completely dependent.

And so when you look at what's happening with immigration, how are we going to scale things?

Because I think and I kind of felt the same way.

And when we were talking to that, when we came, about, well, I'll just leave it at that.

I don't there's any I just wanted to say it's all a big picture, and it's hard to talk about one point without thinking about all the rest.

So thank you very much.

It is a really good point on food production.

certainly immigrant labor central to that.

And under this administration's policies, what would that mean if we attempted a significant scale up of American food production in America?

Makes a lot of food.

We got a big agricultural industry, but if we a big increase, what would happen?

Celia is raising, I think, a very fair question.

Camille in Caledon.

Caledon.

You got to keep a tight Camille.

Go ahead.

Okay.

Well, I just in in, like.

Jane.

I feel like this.

I don't feel like it.

I know that he is just getting his jollies from jerking people around.

Oh, look what I can do.

It's like a egocentric two year old who is testing his boundaries, seeing what reactions he can get.

And it's just so he's just so excited about his own power to see what he can do.

And then be the AP piece that this morning, I think it was.

AP said this morning that just hours before dropping the tariffs, he said he sort of gave it what sounds like a dog whistle, I guess you call dog whistle of like saying on his little good time to buy.

Yeah.

Good time to buy.

Yeah.

And then he signs it with his little initials that have to do with the company of his whacked off.

I better jump in there.

Thank you.

Camille, thank you for that.

I did the edit myself.

by the way, Camille's point there, Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut says there will be an insider trading trading investigation on who profited in Congress based on the 15 minutes between the president's Truth Social post and his announcement on tariffs.

Okay.

And though I don't know if they're profiting today, the market's way down today.

Kim and Hilton against my better judgment you got about 20s.

Go ahead Kim.

thanks, Evan.

I would just say read Ruth Ben-Ghiat book called strong.

I think all of it, all the firings, all the government upset, all the department closures.

And the markets are all chaos.

Plan chaos right along the lines of what Jim was saying.

But it's a bigger picture than just the markets.

It everything she got it.

Thank you for the phone call.

an interesting reference there.

Listeners, a lot of interest in this subject, and I realize we're going to be following it because if our prices, well, at the grocery store, a big item in the campaign last year, it's going to be a big item this year, we'll watch that.

But really, prices across supply chains and affecting consumers in a lot of different ways.

We'll be watching that and we'll keep following that.

If you're in small business, send me a separate note.

Connections at cyborg.

We want to keep checking in with you to see how you're doing.

Otherwise, thank you for being with us on this Thursday afternoon from all of us at connections.

Thank you for listening.

Thank you for watching on the 16 news YouTube channel.

We are back with you tomorrow on member supported public media.

This program is a production of WXXI Public Radio.

The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of this station.

Its staff management, or underwriters.

The broadcast is meant for the private use of our audience.

Any rebroadcast or use in another medium without express written consent of WXXI is strictly prohibited.

Connections with Evan Dawson is available as a podcast.

Just click on the connections link.

At WXXI news.org.