>>> COMING UP NEXT ON ARIZONA HORIZON: INSIGHT INTO SOME EARLY WARNING SIGNS OF A SLOWING ECONOMY.

ALSO TONIGHT: WE'LL MEET THE NEW EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF MAG, THE MARICOPA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS.

AND, A NEW PROGRAM WORKS TO CHANGE WHAT ADVOCATES DESCRIBE AS FALSE NARRATIVES ABOUT THE HOMELESS.

THOSE STORIES AND MORE, NEXT, ON ARIZONA HORIZON.

>> ARIZONA HORIZON MADE POSSIBLE BY CONTRIBUTIONS OF FRIENDS OF ARIZONA PBS.

FRIENDS OF YOUR PUBLIC TELEVISION STATION.

>> GOOD EVENING, AND WELCOME TO ARIZONA HORIZON.

I'M TED SIGH MONDAYS.

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INCREASED AND EMPLOYMENT WAS UNCHANGED IN RECENT WEEKS.

THAT'S ACCORDING TO THE FEDEX SPECTING SLIGHT TO MODEST GROWTH IN THE COMING WEEKS.

WHAT ABOUT SUPPLY CHAIN CONCERNS?

FOR THAT, WE GO TO OUR GO TO GUY DALE ROGERS.

>> THANK YOU.

>> THE LODGISTIC MANAGERS INDEX IS WHAT YOU PUT OUT EVERY MONTH.

>> EVERY MONTH.

>> THE FIRST TUESDAY OF THE MONTH IT COMES OUT WHAT DOES IT DO?

>> WE LOOK AT EIGHT COMPONENTS.

WAREHOUSING, CAPACITY UTILIZATION AND INVENTORY LEVELS AND COSTS.

>> A SLIGHT SLOWDOWN IN DECEMBER.

WE SEE CAPACITY TAKEN OUT.

TRANSPORTATION PRICES WERE UP A BIT.

WE HAVE TAKEN.

THAT'S THE FASTEST THING TO REDUCE CAPACITY.

WE HAVE SEEN WAREHOUSING DECREASE.

WE SAW INVENTORY LEVELS GO DOWN LIKE IN JULY.

THERE ANTICIPATION OF CHRISTMAS BECAUSE OF THE TARIFFS.

WHO IS REALLY GETTING SQUEEZED ARE THE SMALLER PLAYERS.

WHEN THEY TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMY THEY LOOK AT THE GDP.

IT'S ONLY THOSE, YOU KNOW, FACING THE CONSUMER.

>> THE TARIFFS HAVE BEEN A DISASTER FOR THE FOLKS UPSTREAM.

IT MOVES BACKWARD WHERE THINGS START.

IT'S BEEN DISASTROUS.

IF YOU ARE AN AMERICAN MANUFACTURER TWO TIERS UP YOU HAVE THOUSANDS OF SUPPLIERS AND THEY HAVE TO BE INTERNATIONAL FOLKS ARE SCRAMBLING TO RECONFIGURE REGURGITATE THEM.

SOME CASES YOU CAN'T DO IT.

>> SEASONALITY IS A FACTOR.

ALL BETS ARE OFF BECAUSE SO MUCH WAS HAPPENING BEFORE TARIFFS AN INTISPATION.

>> WE BUILT A GLOBAL MODEL IN MOST INDUSTRY.

ESPECIALLY THE VEHICLE AND CAR INDUSTRY.

WE BUILT A NORTH AMERICAN MODEL.

THIS ADMINISTRATION JUST IN ONE YEAR HAS REALLY ATTACKED THAT.

SO, NOBODY REALLY KNOWS WHAT TO DO.

>> I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE AUTO INDUSTRY ESPECIALLY WHAT'S HAPPENING UP NORTH.

BASICALLY WINDSOR, ONTARIO, FORD AND WINDSOR ARE COOPERATIVE.

THEY DON'T KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON.

>> THEY FEEL ATTACKED AND BETRAYED.

CANADA WANTS CANADA TO BE THE 51st STATE.

THEY HAVE BEEN FOR A LONG TIME.

TRUMP A FEW DAYS AGO, IN DETROIT SAID WE DON'T NEED CANADA OR MEXICO.

I KNOW CANADA WANTS IT.

ONE THING HE DID IN THE FIRST ADMINISTRATION WAS RENEGOTIATE NAFTA.

THAT WAS A GOOD UPDATE OF THE AGREEMENT.

ATTACKING HIS OWN TRADE AGREEMENT FOR THE WHOLE INDUSTRY SEEMS CRAZY.

>> DO WE NEED THE USMCA?

>> WELL, YOU ARE NOT GOING TO GET THE SAME COSTS.

IF PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO PAY, YOU KNOW, ON A VEHICLE THAT COST 50,000, IF THEY ARE WILLING TO PAY 80 OR 90 WE DON'T.

THE THING IS, WE DO.

THE OTHER THING, THE GUY THAT FOUNDED THE THUNDERBIRD SCHOOL.

I TEACH THIS IN THE OTHER BUSINESS SCHOOL.

HE SAID BORDERS FREQUENTED BY TRADE SELDOM NEED SOLDIERS.

WHEN THINGS BREAK APART.

THINK ABOUT THE START OF WORLD WAR II AND SEVERAL OTHER BAD WARS.

IT USUALLY STARTS OVER TRADE BREAKDOWNS.

CERTAINLY, THE JAPAN SIDE OF WORLD WAR II THE PACIFIC CAME OUT OF TRADE DISASTERS.

>> SO THE IMPACT ON THE AUTO INDUSTRY, RIGHT NOW AS EVERYTHING STANDS, THE TARIFFS, YOU HAVE TO DO RESEARCH TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS ON AND WHAT IS OFF.

WE KNOW ABOUT THE NORTHERN BORDER, WHAT ARE WE SEEING AND WHAT SHOULD WE WORRY ABOUT.

>> THE DISMANTLING THAT CAN'T WORKOUT FOR AMERICAN CONSUMERS IN THE LONG RUN, YOU KNOW, WE ARE REPLAYING AN OLD GAME.

WE THINK WE'LL GO BACK TO THE 50s WHERE STEEL WAS INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT AND WE BUILT THE AUTO INDUSTRY WITH HIGH PAYING, YOU KNOW, UAW JOBS.

SOMEHOW, WE WILL COMPETE EFFECTIVELY GOING BACK TO OLD TIMES.

IT'S NOT LIKE THAT ANY MORE.

>> THE IMPACT OF CANADA TALKING TO EUROPE TO EASE TRADE.

>> WE SEE A LOT OF NEW DISCUSSIONTIONS.

THE U.S.

CAN'T BE TRUSTED ANY MORE AND BAD ACTOR.

THE PRIME MINISTER IS IN CANADA TODAY MEETING WITH THE SENIOR CHINESE FOLKS.

THIS IS BECAUSE THEY THINK, MAYBE WE SHOULD ALSO, IN ADDITION TO PARTNERING WITH EUROPE, MAYBE WE SHOULD BE APART OF WHAT CHINA IS DOING.

THAT'S NOT GOOD FOR US.

THAT'S THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SAID THEY WANTED TO DO.

>> AND SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES.

WHAT DO WE WATCH FOR?

WHO DO YOU SEE IN THE COMING MONTHS.

>> WE NEED TO LOOK AT VITALITY.

THE PROBLEM IS THE FED CAN MANAGED SUPPLY BASED INFLATION.

ON THE DEMAND BASED INFLATION.

THE FAR DOWNSTREAM KIND.

AS WE SEE DEGRADATION OF THE UPSTREAM PART OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN, EVENTUALLY THAT WILL ROLL THROUGH.

WE NEED TO LOOK AT, WAL-MART IS FINE.

WHAT HAPPENS UPSTREAM BEFORE WAL-MART.

>> THANK YOU, ALWAYS A PLEASURE.

>> THANK YOU.

THE MARICOPA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS, KNOWN AS "MAG," HAS A NEW EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR.

SHE IS AUDRA KOESTER THOMAS, AND SHE'S THE FIRST "WOMAN" TO LEAD THE AGENCY THAT FOCUSES ON REGIONAL PLANNING AND POLICY DECISIONS.

WE WELCOME AUDRA KOESTER THOMAS TO ARIZONA HORIZON.

GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>> WHAT MADE YOU WANT THIS JOB ?

>> THIS IS AN UNPRECEDENTED TIME.

IT'S AN EXCITING TIME.

WE ARE ON THE PRECIPICE OF LAUNCHING OUR NEXT 20 YEAR PROGRAM IN THE PROPOSITION FOR SEVEN NINE THAT'S A 20 YEAR INVESTMENT THAT LEAD TO GROWTH IN THE VALLEY.

>> WE SAW AN EXTENSION OF THE HALF CENT SALE TAX.

>> VOTERS GAVE THAT TO US AND WE HAVE BEEN WAITING TO START IMPLEMENTATION.

>> MAG, WELL, I GAVE A BRIEF DESCRIPTION, GIVE ME A BETTER ONE.

>> REGIONAL PLANNING AGENCY COVERING ARIZONA.

27 CITIES AND TOWNS.

>> GETTING THEM ALTOGETHER.

WHAT WORKS?

>> WELL, IT WORKS WITH A LOT OF PARTICIPATION FROM AGENCIES AND WILLINGNESS TO WANT TO FIND ELEMENTS.

THAT SETS THE REGION APART DIFFERENTLY FROM OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND WE HAVE A UNIQUE LEGACY HERE FOR MAYORS COMING TOGETHER.

THEY CAN DO REALLY BIG THINGS.

>> DID THE COOPERATION EBB AND FLOW OVERTIME.

>> IT'S A REAL COMMITMENT.

>> THE LONG LEGACY WE PROVIDE DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS.

WE HAVE TOUGH DECISIONS TO BE HAD BUT WORK HARD TO PROVIDE THE INFORMATION TO INFORM THOSE DECISIONS.

>> THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES GETTING FOLKS TOGETHER AND IN THE ROOM TALKING AND AGREEING.

>> THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS ENGAGEMENT.

WE ARE BLESSED TO HAVE PEOPLE COME TO MAG.

IT'S UNIQUE.

OUR REGIONAL PLANNING AGENCY.

ALL 32 SIT AT THE TABLE AND HAVE THE SAME SIZED VOTE.

THIS IS WHAT DRIVES US TO MAKE GOOD CONSENSUS DECISIONS.

>> IS THERE A LOT OF LOBBYING INVOLVED.

YOU AS THE EXSECKIVE DIRECTOR PART OF THAT LOBBYING.

>> I DON'T KNOW ABOUT LOBBYING BUT INVESTMENTS IN OUTCOME.

OUR JOB AND STAFF ARE HARD TO FIND AREAS OF CONSENSUS.

WHERE CAN WE MAKE SURE WE FIND AREAS TO DRIVE SOLUTIONS FORWARD THAT WORK FOR EVERYBODY.

MAYBE NOT EVERY PIECE OF IT BUT WE ARE ABLE TO DRIVE A SOLUTION WHERE EVERYONE IS ONBOARD.

>> GETTING AWAY WITH THE GOOD.

>> YOU HAVE BEEN TEN YEARS WITH MAG.

YOUR FOCUS WAS ON TRANSPORTATION ISSUES AND SALE TAXES AND SUCH.

WHAT ARE THE BIGGEST ISSUES NOW.

>> THEY WANT DELIVER THE PROPOSITIONS.

WEEKS AWAY FROM THE GROUNDBREAKING.

LUKE 303 AND THE SUPER CHANGE.

A LOT OF GROWTH IN THE NORTH VALLEY.

WE NEED TO MOVE IT EFFECTIVELY AND TURNING DIRT ON CELEBRATION WITH OUR MAYOR IN A FEW SHORT WEEKS.

>> IT'S BETTER THAN RAISING THE FUNDS IN THE FIRST PLACE.

>> IT'S ALWAYS IMPORT TAN TO HAVE THE FUNDING.

>> I KNOW IT'S WELL INVOLVED HOW CAN CITIES AS A GROUP ADDRESS WHAT CAN BE TICKLISH ISSUE IN THE VALLEY.

>> THAT'S RIGHT.

WE HAVE A FEW POLLUTANTS INCLUDING PARTICLENT.

IN THE LAST 25 YEARS EVEN THOUGH THE POPULATION HAS GROWN 50% IN THE REGION.

THEY HAVE BEEN DECLINING AND THAT'S BECAUSE OF THE HEART WORK OF MEMBER AGENCY AND REGULATORY PARTNERS IN THE COUNTY AND BUSINESS COMMUNITIES.

IT CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE.

>> YEAH, IT'S IMPORTANT.

AN ISSUE IMPORTANT TO THE MAYOR.

WE DON'T WANT TO BE PENALIZED.

80% OF THE ASSIGNED IN THE REGION IS OUTSIDE OF THE OZONE.

TRANSPORTED FROM AN INTERNATIONAL SETTING.

MORE BACKGROUND IS NATIONALLY CREATED.

PUT THOSE DID I HAVE CULT POSITION FOR ADVANCING SOLUTIONS.

>> I MENTIONED ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THIS IS ANOTHER BIG FACTOR IN WHAT WE DO.

ARE THE SILOS STILL -- CAN YOU STILL SEE THEM.

>> I THINK THE TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENTS YOU ARE CERTAINLY SEEING INVESTMENTS IN A VARIETY OF FORMS.

WE ARE SEEING THAT THROUGHOUT THE VALLEY.

THAT'S CONNECTED TO THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.

WE SEE THAT ACROSS THE REGION.

YOU ARE THE FIRST DIRECTOR OF MAG.

>> WE MAKEUP 50% OF THE WORK FORCE.

I KNOW MY 13-YEAR-OLD DAUGHTER IS QUITE PROUD.

AT THE END OF THE DAY WE WILL GET TO WORK.

>> IT'S A GREAT NOTE.

NOW IT'S TIME TO GET TO WORK.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

CONGRATULATIONS.

THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.

>> IT'S BEEN A PLEASURE.

>>> TELEVISION NETWORK, KNOWN AS "STN," IS WORKING WITH U-MOM, WHICH PROVIDES SHELTER AND SERVICES FOR PEOPLE EXPERIENCING HOMELESSNESS.

THE COLLABORATION IS DESIGNED TO SHARE SOME RECENT U-MOM SUCCESS STORIES AND TO CHANGE "SOME" OF THE NARRATIVES SURROUNDING HOMELESSNESS.

JOINING US NOW IS MONIQUE LOPEZ, THE CEO OF UMOM... [TAKE :MCU/ERIC] AND ALSO [TAKE :MCU/ERIC] AND ALSO WITH US IS ERIC SPERLING, THE CEO OF STN.

>> YOU HAVE BEEN THE CEO FOR OWE LONG?

>> 15 DAYS.

>> TELL US WHAT U-MOM IS.

>> IT'S A SHELTER FOR MOTHERS EXPERIENCING HOMELESSNESS.

THEY ARE AROUND CASE MANAGEMENT SERVICES ANDS WRAPPING THE SERVICES TO GET THEM TO PERMANENT HOUSING.

>> GIVE ME AN EXAMPLE OF SOMEONE THAT MIGHT COME IN THERE.

>> ANYWHERE FROM A MOM AND COUPLE OF KIDS AND EXTENDED FAMILY AND OTHER PEOPLE IN THE FAMILY AND SINGLE WOMEN.

>> EMERGENCY SHELTERS AND FORMAL HOUSING.

>> WE DO A FULL SLATE OF SERVICES.

WE START WORKING AT THE EARLY STAGES OF THE HOUSING CRISIS AND PROVIDE THEM WITH SHELTER AND GET THEM INTO HOUSING.

IT'S A PART OF WHAT WE DO.

>> A SOCIAL TELEVISION NETWORK, STN.

>> WE ARE AN INDEPENDENT MEDIA COMPANY.

WE ARE RIGHT DOWN THE STREET FROM YOU GUYS.

WE ARE A STREAMING NETWORK FOCUSING ON LOCAL LEADERSHIP.

ACTION ABLE LEADERSHIP.

BEST KNOWN IN THE COMMUNITY.

A FLAGSHIP AND WE DO A STUDIO SHOW AND BRING TOGETHER NONPROFIT AND CORPORATE LEADERS.

WE FOCUS ON THE SYSTEMIC ISSUES THAT WE CAN APPROACH IN REALTIME.

WE DO THAT ONCE PER MONTH.

WE WORK A LOT WITH MONIQUE.

>> I WAS THERE FOR SEVERAL MANY SAW ITS' GROUP AND GROWN YEAR OVER YEAR AND WE ARE APART OF THIS MONTHLY SHOW BRINGING US THE LEADERS.

>> IT'S LIKE A STREAMING NETWORK.

>> THIS IS THE FOCUS OF WHAT.

>> SO U-MOM WAS FEATURED ON A SEGMENT LEADING IN THE MOMENT.

IT'S NOT ABOUT HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING.

IT'S ABOUT BEING A LEADER IN THE SPACE.

STRATEGIC PLANNING AND BOARD GOVERNANCE.

WITH TALK ABOUT THE WORK DONE.

>> DEBUNKING NARRATIVES ABOUT HOMELESSNESS.

WHAT ARE SOME OF THOSE, DEPENDING ON PEOPLE'S EXPERIENCE WE SEE POTENTIALLY WHAT IS ON STREET CORNERS OR SHOWN ON TELEVISION.

IT'S OFTEN A HIDDEN ISSUE.

MANY ARE COUCH SURFING AND STAYING IN CARS AROUND PLACES WE KEEP THEIR CHILD REN WITH THEM AND SAFE.

>> THAT'S THE IMPORTANT THING.

THESE AGENCIES, MONIQUE HER TEAM THEY ARE THE BEST.

>> THEY EXIT INTO PERMANENT HOUSING.

>> THAT'S SOMETHING WE LEARNED.

HOW DO WE GET THEM TO RALLY AROUND THE ACTIONS INSTEAD OF FOCUSING ON THE PROBLEM.

THAT INVOLVES WORKING WITH MONIQUE AND HER TEAM.

THE TWO TO ONE RATIO.

ONLY ONE PERSON IS EXITING THERE IS A CRISIS GROWING YEAR AFTER YEAR.

AROUND THE LEADERS THE BETTER IMPACT THEY ARE.

>> WHY DO WE NEED TO THAT MIGHT BE THE VERSION THAT'S MASS DISTRICT PUTTED AND TYPE OF HOMELESSNESS FEATURED ON THE NEWS AND PROBLEMS THAT NEED SOLUTIONS.

IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND ON ANY GIVEN DAY ANYBODY CAN FIND THEMSELVES IN-HOUSING INSTABILITY AND HOMELESSNESS.

WE NEED TO FOCUS ON A SOLUTION.

>> AS FAR AS THE SEGMENT IS CONCERNED ARE THESE INTERVIEWS AND GOING OUT TO AREA?

>> ALL OF THE ABOVE.

WE HAVE A UNIQUE LENS WHAT I SEE FIRSTHAND, THESE ARE THE BEST OF THE BEST.

I GIVE THE ANALOGY OF AN ER.

IN COMES A MASS CASUALTY EVENT.

PEOPLE NEED CARE AND BEST DOCTORS IN THE WORLD AND SAVING LIVES.

HERE COME THE NEW PEOPLE THAT NEED CARE.

THEY ARE DEALING WITH THIS.

THEY ARE THE BEST IN THE WORLD.

THERE IS STILL A WAVE OF PEOPLE THAT NEED CARE ERR PERSON THEY SAVE THERE ARE TWO PEOPLE MOVING IN.

THOSE RALLYING AROUND THIS WILL HEP THEM REDUCE THE NUMBERS.

>> IT ALSO FUTURES THE SUCCESSES WHAT OTHER STORIES ARE THERE.

THEY OPERATE A JOB TRAINING TYPE OF PROGRAMMING.

BOOF THE PROGRAMS ARE CENTERED AROUND UPSCALING MANY HAVE BEEN UNDER EMPLOYED.

WE GET PEOPLE LIVABLE WAGE JOBS.

COSTS ARE GOING UP.

WE WANT PEOPLE TO BE SUCCESSFUL WHEN THEY LEAVE WITH US.

>> IT'S BEEN SA DAYS.

>> THANK YOU BOTH.

CONGRATULATIONS.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING US.

THAT'S IT FOR NOW.

I'M TED SIMONS.

HAVE A GREAT