FROM THE WPSU PRODUCTION STUDIO, THIS IS CONVERSATIONS LIVE.

♪ ♪ GOOD EVENING.

I'M ANNE DANAHY, TRYING TO UNDERSTAND WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO LEAVE MANY OF US CONFUSED UNEMPLOYMENT IS LOW BUT THE COST OF LIVING HAS GONE UP AND IN SOME STRESS, BUSINESSES ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME FILLING JOBS AND OTHERS THERE ARE LAYOFFS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A RECESSION OR ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN LOOMS.

JOINING US TO MAKE SENSE OF ALL THAT TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS ARE TWO EXPERTS.

WE'LL ALWAYS HERE LATER IN THE PROGRAM FROM MEL CURTIS, DIRECTOR OF THE CENTRE COUNTY YMCA ANTI-HUNGER PROGRAM.

BUT FIRST LETS MEET OUR GUEST, FARIBORZ GHADAR, PROFESSOR OF GLOBAL MANAGEMENT POLICIES IN BUSINESS OF BUSINESS WRITTEN EXTENSIVELY ABOUT ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, INCLUDING HIS MOST RECENT BOOK "THE DANGER OF DEVALUING IMMIGRANTS: IMPACTS ON THE U.S. ECONOMY AND SOCIETY."

HILARY WILL WETHING IS AN ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF PUBLIC POLICY IN THE COLLEGE OF LIBERAL ARTS.

HER RESEARCH LOOKS AT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC VOLATILITY AND LABOR POLICY MAKING UNDERSTAND SOCIAL SET OF NET PROGRAMS.

YOU, TOO, CAN JOIN TONIGHT'S CONVERSATION, EXPWROIN EXPWROIN YOU CAN JOIN THE CONVERSATION BY CALLING 1-800-543-8242 OUR EMAIL ADDRESS IS CONNECT@WPSU.ORG.

HILARY WETHING AND FARIBORZ GHADAR, THANK YOU BOTH FOR TALKING WITH US.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING US.

>> WE ARE AT A TIME IF THE ECONOMY WHERE THIS HAS BEEN A LOT GOING ON BUT I THINK ONE THING THAT ALMOST EVERYBODY CAN RELATE TO IS THE HIGHER PRICES THAT WE ARE SEEING.

SO THESE RISING COSTS.

AND I'M THINKING OF GROCERIES, THE PRICE OF FOOD WENT UP ABOUT 10% LAST YEAR AND INFLATION IS COMING DOWN BUT IT'S STILL MORE THAN OF 6%.

CAN YOU START US OFF BY EXPLAINING THE FACTORS THAT HAVE GONE NO DRIVING THE COSTS AND PRICES UP.

>> SURE.

IT'S REALLY TWO FUNDAMENTAL THINGS THAT HAVE HAPPENED.

ONE IS WE HAVE THE PANDEMIC THE PANDEMIC CAUSED DISLOCATIONS.

WE DIDN'T HAVE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE IT BECAUSE THE PEOPLE WERE SICK.

WE COULDN'T TRANSPORT IT.

WE HAD PRESSURE ON PRICES ALONG WITH THAT, THE GOVERNMENT HAD TO BAIL OUT A LOT OF THE SECTORS THAT WERE HAVING DIFFICULTY AND SO THEY SPENT A LOT OF MONEY SO A LOT OF MONEY ON ONE HAND AND SHORTAGES OF SUPPLY ON THE OTHER BROUGHT ABOUT THE INFLATION THAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.

>> AND HILARY, ANOTHER THING THAT WE ARE SEEING WAGES, AND DEMAND FOR JOBS.

AND THERE IS A LOT OF DIFFERENT THINGS GOING ON THERE, TOO.

I WONDER IF YOU CAN SHED SOME LIGHT ON THAT.

ARE WHAT PEOPLE GETTING PAID, IS THAT KEEPING UP WITH INFLATION?

>> YEAH, THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.

AND I THINK IT'S FIRST HELPFUL TO NOTE THAT ACTUALLY FROM A PANDEMIC PERSPECTIVE, EMPLOYMENT RIGHT NOW IS LOOKING REALLY GOOD.

AND SO AND THAT TRANSLATES TO STRONG WAGE GROWTH.

SO WITHIN THE LAST FEW MONTHS, ACTUALLY, WE HAVE SEEN REBOUNDS TO PRE-PANDEMIC EMPLOYMENT RATES FOR THE PEOPLE THAT WERE HIT HARDEST IN THE PANDEMIC SO BY THAT I THINK ABOUT WOMEN WHO HAD TO LEAVE THE WORKFORCE FOR CARE GIVING DUTIES AS WELL AS WORKERS IN EDUCATION, LEISURE, HOSPITALITY, FOOD, ALL OF THOSE WORKERS HAVE COME BACK AND WE HAVE SEEN EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS FOR THOSE RISE TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS.

THAT MEANS THAT WAGES ARE FINALLY ABLE TO GROW, WHICH IS GOOD.

INFLATION STILL REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THAT IS RELATED TO WHAT HE SAID ABOUT THE SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES AND I THINK IT'S HELPFUL TO REMEMBER THERE THAT,YOU KNOW, INFLATION AND WAGES ARE NOT NECESSARILY ALWAYS RELATESSED.

IN THIS CASE, INFLATION IS DUE TO A LOT OF THINGS, WAGES IS JUST ONE HART OF IT.

>> SO CAN YOU TALK ABOUT WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING IN THE FUTURE?

I MEAN SO THE PRICES HAVE GONE UP AND SOME OF THEM ARE COMING BACK DOWN BUT NOT ALL OF THEM.

DO WE HAVE ANY INSIGHT INTO WHERE THINGS MIGHT BE GOING?

>> >> FIRST OF ALL I THINK IT'S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE FOR SUPPLY CHAIN TO ADJUST ITSELF SOME PARTS ARE EASIER TO ADJUST.

IF YOU DON'T HAVE ENOUGH WORKERS ON THE FARMS OR TRUCK DRIVERS TO TAKE IT AND THEN IN THE CASE OF AG, YOU HAVE THE AVIAN FLU THAT HIT THE CHICKEN AND EGG FACTOR.

ALL OF THESE WILL GRADUALLY ADJUST ITSELF BUT IT'S GOING TO TAKE SOMETIME.

SO, FOR EXAMPLE, ONE EXAMPLE CAR PRICES SHOT UP VERY RAPIDLY.

WE DIDN'T HAVE ANY CARS.

THE NEXT RESULT WAS THAT SECOND HAND CAR PRICES WENT UP VERY RAPIDLY.

CAR PRODUCTION COMING BACK ON LINE AND SECOND HAND CAR PRICES IS DROPPING.

IT DEPENDS PRODUCT BY PRODUCT AND REGION BY REFUGEE GASOLINE THE PRICE OF ONE THING MIGHT HAVE AN EMPACT ON SOMETHING ELSE, TOO.

CAR PRICES, THE NEW CAR PRICE GOES UP AND THEN WE SEE THE USED CAR PRICES GO UP AS WELL.

SO THAT CHAIN REACTION.

WELL, WPSU WENT OUT AND TALKED TO SHOPPERS ABOUT WHAT THEY'RE SEEING WITH THE ECONOMY AND GOT THEIR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS.

AND WE ARE GOING TO LISTEN TO WHAT TWO PEOPLE HAD TO SAY ABOUT IT AND THEN WE'LL COME BACK AND DISCUSS.

>> HAVE THERE BEEN TRENDS LIKE THIS BEFORE PANDEMICS AND AFTER PANDEMICS AND WHAT THE TREND LOOKS LIKE AND HOW LONG, THAT SEEMS TO TAKE TO GO BACK TO WHATEVER YOU CALL NORMAL QUOTE UNQUOTE.

>> I WOULD LOVE A BREAKDOWN ON WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON AND KIND OF WHY THIS ISN'T BEING FIXED OR HOW THEY'RE REALLY TRYING TO HELP THE CONSUMERS.

>> AND HILARY, SO WE HAVE I A COUPLE DIFFERENT QUESTIONS THERE.

1: WHAT IS GOING TO NEED TO CHANGE, IS GOVERNMENT TO STEP IN AND HOW LONG COULD THIS GO ON?

ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT?

>> YEAH, SO I THINK THE GOVERNMENT IS WORKING REALLY HARD, BUT IT IS GOING TO TAKE SOMETIME.

SO WHAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS TRYING TO DO IS HAVE A SOFT LANDING WHEN IT COMES TO INFLATION.

AND WHAT THAT MEANS IS ESSENTIALLY IS THAT THEY'RE TRYING TO RAISE INTEREST RATES BUT NOT SO MUCH THAT IT SPOOKS EMPLOYERS, INVESTORS OR ANYTHING ON THE BUSINESS SIDE OF THINGS BECAUSE IF THEY GET SPOOKED, THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT AND LOSSES IN WAGES.

SO THEY'RE TRYING ON DO IT VERY SLOWLY, WHICH I THINK IS GOOD FOR US LONG-TERM BUT IT DOES MEAN THAT I THINK WE WILL BE IN THIS FOR AT LEAST QUITE SOMETIME.

>> SO PEOPLE ARE WONDERING, GOSH, WE HAVE BEEN IN THIS, IT FEELS LEAK LONG TIME AND WE WANT TO SPEED IT UP BUT THERE IS A RISK OF DOING THAT.

DO YOU HAVE ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT, TOO, ON WHAT IS GOVERNMENT DOING?

ARE THEY DOING ENOUGH AND HOW LONG COULD THIS GO ON?

>> WELL, GOVERNMENT HAS GOT REALLY TWO ROLES.

1: THEY WANT TO BRING INFLATION DOWN BY RAISING INTEREST RATES.

ON THE OTHER HAND, THEY WANT TO HAVE SOME SAFETY NETS IN PLACE TO MAKE SURE THAT SOCIETY AND ALL CERTAIN ASPECTS OF SOCIETY ARE IN THE HURT.

AND THAT'S SORT OF A DUAL THING.

AND I AGREE WITH HILARY.

I THINK THEY'VE DONE A VERY GOOD JOB.

IT'S JUST THAT THE PANDEMIC WAS ONE IN A CENTURY KIND OF EVENT.

PEOPLE SAID WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED?

IT WAS THE SPANISH FLU WHEN MY GREAT GRANDFATHER DIED.

I MEAN THIS IS A BIG DEAL AND IT'S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE FOR US TO SORT IT OUT.

>> OKAY, WELL, WE HAVE A CALL FROM ED IN BELLEFONTE HI, ED, THANK YOU FOR CALLING AND DO YOU HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?

>> I DO.

THANK YOU FOR TAKING QUESTIONS.

I NOTE THAT THERE SEEM TO BE AN AWFUL LOT OF FOLKS THAT WOULD LOVE TO COME WORK HERE.

FOLKS IN INDIA WITH MASTERS DEGREES AND DOCTORATES WHO DON'T HAVE A JOB.

HERE AT PENN STATE WE HAVE MANY STUDENTS STUDYING HERE WHO WOULD LOVE TO BE ABLE TO HAVE A PERMANENT RESIDENCE HERE IN THE UNITED STATES AND ENJOY A JOB HERE MY QUESTION REALLY IS WHY AREN'T PUBLIC POLICY MAKERS TAKING A LOOK AT THE OPPORTUNITY TO ADDRESS IMMIGRATION AND THE EFFECT THE INFLATION AND LABOR COSTS IN THE LABOR MARKET?

IT SEEMS TO ME THAT IT'S A NO BRAINER THAT WE COULD HELP WITH THE SOFT LANDING IF WE ALLEVIATED SOME OF THE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE IN THE LABOR MARKETS BY EASING IMMIGRATION WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK ABOUT THAT?

>> THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.

MAYBE WE'LL START WITH YOU ON THAT SINCE THIS IS ONE OF YOUR AREAS OF EXPERTISE WHAT ROLE COULD THE GOVERNMENT HAVE IN IMMIGRATION POLICIES AND IN EASING THE SITUATION THAT WE ARE IN.

>> I THINK THAT'S REALLY AN EXCELLENT QUESTION IF YOU LOOK AT IT, ANN, 80 TO 90% OF OUR AGRICULTURE WORKFORCE IS IMMIGRANTS.

THE LADIES WHO PICK THE FEATHERS, THE GUYS WHO I MEAN IT'S UNBELIEVABLE OUR DEPENDENTS ON IMMIGRANTS IN CERTAIN SECTORS.

THAT'S ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR.

ON THE HEALTHCARE SECTOR WE HAVE 25% OF OUR HEALTHCARE ARE IMMIGRANTS.

AND THE HIGH TECH AREA WE HAVE ABOUT 20% OF OUR EMPLOYEES IN THE HIGH TECH ARE IMMIGRANTS.

YET, WHAT HAS HAPPENED THAT DESPITE THE GOVERNMENT SAYING THEY WANT TO YOU KNOW, TURNPIKE THINGS AROUND THIS YEAR, THIS LAST YEAR HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MOST RESTRICTIVE IN ALLOWING IMMIGRANTS IN.

SO YOU DON'T LET THE IMMIGRANTS IN AND SO THE PEACHES ON THE TREE AND THE STRAWBERRIES ON THE GROUND BASICALLY ROT AND THEN YOU SAY WELL WHY WAS THERE A SHORTAGE OF FOOD IN THIS AREA OR THAT AREA?

WELL, THE SUPPLY CHAIN, INCLUDING THE WORKFORCE HAS BEEN CONSTRAINED.

THEY'RE GETTING OLD AND RETIRING THEY DON'T WANT TO DO THE WORK THAT'S VERY HARD WORK, YOU KNOW, BACK BREAKING WORK AND THEY DON'T WANT TO LET THE IMMIGRANTS IN.

SO THE COMBINATION OF THOSE IS WHAT THE CALLER HAS IDENTIFIED AND THAT'S A VERY GOOD POINT.

>> NOT JUST LIMITED TO ONE INDUSTRY, THE IMPACT THAT WE ARE SEALING FOR THAT.

HILARY, DO YOU HAVE ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT ON THE CALLER'S QUESTION ABOUT WHAT MIGHT NEED TO CHANGE ON IMMIGRATION POLICY?

>> YEAH, I THINK IT'S A REALLY GREAT CALL AND A REALLY GREAT POINT AND I COMPLETELY AGREE WITH WHAT FARI WAS SAYING.

I WOULD ECHO THAT I DO THINK IT HAS TO COME FROM A POLICY PERSPECTIVE AND WE DO NEED TO SEE GOVERNMENT ACTION.

THIS IS NOT AN ISSUE WHERE EMPLOYERS CAN SIMPLY SOLVE IT.

FRANKLY, I HAVE SEEN ON THE OTHER SIDE FROM STUDENTS APPLYING FOR JOBS, IF THEY NEED A VISA IT'S REALLY HARD FOR THEM TO GET AN INTERVIEW AT MANY PLACES SO IT'S NOT NECESSARILY AN ISSUE FOR EMPLOYERS BUT FOR THE POLICY MAKERS TO THINK THE IMMIGRATION POLICIES A LITTLE MORE SERIOUSLY.

>> WAS WOULD YOU SAY TO THE QUESTIONER CONCERN IF SOMEBODY MIGHT SAY, WELL, WHY DON'T WE MAKE SURE THAT AMERICANS WHO ARE ALREADY HERE GET THOSE JOBS?

>> YEAH THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION AND I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT THAT EVERYONE GETS JOBS THAT WANT TO GET JOBS.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH BECAUSE OUR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS SO LOW, I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS THAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW IS WE ARE LOOKING TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT FOLKS THAT HAD LEFT THE LABOR FORCE DURING THE PANDEMIC OR EVEN BEFORE ARE GOING TO COME BACK.

I THINK ABOUT THESE AS OUR DISCOURAGED WORKERS.

SO WE DO HAVE A SECTION OF AMERICAN WORKERS WHO WORKED, THEY LEFT AND MAYBE THEY DON'T KNOW IF THEY WANT TO COME BACK.

IT DOESN'T FEEL LIKE THERE IS A SPACE FOR THEM AT THIS MOMENT.

SO I THINK THAT WITH, YOU KNOW, A RISING AND ROBUST LABOR MARKET, THAT CAN LEAD TO JOBS FOR EVERY PERSON, BOTH THE DISCOURAGED WORKERS AS WELL AS IMMIGRANT WORKERS WHO WANT TO COME WORK.

>> AND I WANT TO GO-- WERE YOU GOING TO JUMP IN ON THAT GO AHEAD.

>> HILARY TOUCHED ON A THING.

SHE WAS VERY POLITE.

WHAT IT IS WE CAN'T GET DIFFERENT PARTS OF OUR CONGRESS AND GOVERNMENT AGREE TO AN IMMIGRATION POLICY.

WHEN THEY DON'T AGREE, THEY DON'T DO ANYTHING, WHEN THEY DON'T DO ANYTHING, WE GET WHAT WE HAVE.

I'LL GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE IN HEALTHCARE.

OUR DOCTORS DON'T WANT TO GO TO THE RURAL AREAS, BUT IMMIGRANT DOCTORS WOULD LOVE TO GO TO THE RURAL AREA SO THAT IS ONE WAY TO ADJUST THE IMMIGRATION POLICY WOULD BE TO INSIST THAT THE NURSE AND DOCTORS SPEND THREE TO FIVE YEARS IN RURAL AREAS.

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, WE CAN ALLOW THEM TO COME, DO THE WORK AND THEN RETURN BACK TO WHERE THEY CAME FROM SO THE POLICY THINGS THAT CAN BE DONE TO RESOLVE THIS, IT'S JUST THAT THE RIGHT HAND AND LEFT HAND OF THE GOVERNMENT DOESN'T SEE IT THE SAME WAY.

>> I WANT TO GO TO ONE OF THE THINGS YOU MENTIONED WHEN WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE CHANGE THAT WE ARE SEEING NOW AND WHEN IT MIGHT GET RESOLVED AND THAT'S THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED.

ARE THERE ANY OTHER PRODUCE HISTORICAL PERIODS THAT WE CAN LOOK BACK AND LRN FROM OR IS THIS JUST A WHOLE NEW BALL OF WAX?

HILARY, DO YOU HAVE ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT?

>> HILARY IS A BETTER PERSON TO TALK ABOUT THIS BUT I THINK OF THE SPANISH FLU OR THE IMPACT THE GOVERNMENT MONEY HAVING TO SPEND A LOT OF MONEY TO GET US OUT OF THE DEPRESSION.

BOTH OF THESE THINGS TOOK A LONG TIME AND LOOKING AT THE COVID, AT LEAST IT WENT AROUND THE WORLD VERY QUICKLY AND WE CAME UP WITH A RELATIVE SOLUTION TO IT IN A MATTER OF FIVE, SIX YEARS, THE SPANISH FLEW WENT THROUGH THE WORLD IN 30, 40 YEARS.

IT KILLED SO I CAN'T REALLY THINK OF ANY RECENT THING THAT WAS SIMILAR TO THAT, BUT MAYBE HILARY CAN ENLIGHTEN US.

>> THAT'S KIND OF YOU TO SAY, FARI.

I DON'T KNOW THAT I CAN ENLIGHTEN US ANY FURTHER FUTURE I WOULD POINT TO THE FACT THAT WE REALLY ARE IN UNPRECEDENTED TIMES IN CERTAIN WAYS BUT NOT IN OTHER WAYS.

SO ONE EXAMPLE IN WHICH THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO SOMETHING WE HAVE HAD BEFORE IS WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET AND FOLKS LEAVING THE LABOR MARKET AND COMING BACK.

WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE MOST RECENT RECESSION, THE GREAT RECESSION, THAT WAS A RECESSION THAT, YOU KNOW, HIT DISPROPORTIONATELY WORKERS WHO TEND TO WORK LOW WAGE JOBS OR WORKERS THAT WE THINK OF AS BLUE COLLAR WORKERS, CONSTRUCTION WORKERS, WORKERS IN LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY.

COVID REALLY KIND OF AFFECTED THE SAME WORKFORCE, RIGHT?

WE COULDN'T GET THE SERVICES ESSENTIALLY IN PERSON SO A LOT OF THOSE FOLKS LOST THEIR JOB AND SO WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE PROGRAMS THAT CAN HELP THE WORKERS COME BACK INTO THE LABOR MARKET I THINK WE DO HAVE SOME SENSE AND THE GOVERNMENT DID A LOT OF THINGS, THINGS LIKE THE RENTAL RELIEF PROGRAM, THE EXPANSION OF SNAP, BASIC FOOD.

ALL OF THOSE ACTUALLY WERE THE RIGHT POLICY LEAVERS THAT THE GOVERNMENT CHOSE TO SUPPORT WORKERS WHEN THEY WERE OUT OF A JOB.

>> THAT MAKES PERFECT SENSE.

SO THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND OUR VIEWERS THAT IF YOU ARE JUST JOINING US, I'M ANNE DANAHY AND THIS IS WPSU'S CONVERSATIONS LIVE, MAKING SENSE OF THE ECONOMY.

WE ARE TALKING WITH TWO EXPERTS AND WE WOULD LIKE TO HEAR FROM YOU, YOU CAN JOIN THE CONVERSATION BY CALLING 1-800-543-8242 OR EMAIL US AT CONNECT@WPSU.ORG.

AND WE WILL TAKE A FEW MINUTES TO LISTEN TO AN INTERVIEW WITH MEL CURTIS WHO LEADS THE CENTRE COUNTY YMCA ANTI-HUNGER PROGRAM AND WE WILL HEAR FROM HIM ABOUT WHAT THEY'RE DOING AND WE WILL COME BACK AND DISCUSS.

MEL CURTIS, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US ON CONVERSATIONS LIVE.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR INVITING ME.

>> YOUR YMCA HUNGER PROGRAMS GET FOOD DIRECTLY INTO THE HANDS OF PEOPLE WHO NEED IT WHETHER WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE FOOD DRIVES OR BACKPACK PROGRAMS FOR CHILDREN WHAT ARE YOU SEEING AND HEARING FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY THIS, WHO ARE HAVING TROUBLE PAYING THOSE GROCERY BILLS?

>> ONE OF THE BIGGEST THINGS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW IS A LOT OF THE HIGH PERCENTAGE OF THE PEOPLE ARE THE WORKING CLASS.

DURING COVID, A LOT OF FAMILIES GOT AN EXTENSION IN THEIR SNAP BENEFITS SO THE NEED FOR THEM SORT OF DROPPED OFF A LITTLE BIT.

DURING THAT TIME, YOU KNOW, A LOT OF PEOPLE WITH INFLATION TAKING OFF AND EVERYTHING ELSE, THEY STARTED TO STRUGGLE.

SENIOR CITIZENS WERE SEEING A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF.

SO YOU KNOW THE MARKET HAS REALLY SHIFTED.

THE NEED HAS SHIFTED AND WHAT I MEAN BY THAT, A PERSON WHO NEVER THOUGHT THEY WOULD BE IN THIS SITUATION IS NOW IN A SITUATION.

>> YOU ARE YOU ARE SAYING WORKING CLASS PEOPLE, PEOPLE WHO HAVE JOBS OR HAD JOBS OR LOST HOURS OR NEEDED MORE HELP?

>> BEFORE YOU HAD A LOT OF TWO INCOME FAMILIES PRE-COVID.

DURING COVID, WHEN THEY BOTH WERE THE HUSBAND AND WIFE WERE LAID OFF, WHAT HAPPENED WAS A LOT OF THEM WENT BACK TO ONE INCOME WHEN COVID, WHEN THEY STARTED OPENING THE ECONOMY BACK UP.

SO, YOU KNOW A LOT OF MOMS STAYED HOME TO RAISE THEIR CHILDREN, YOU KNOW, THE HOTEL INDUSTRY AND THE RESTAURANT INDUSTRY IS A GREAT PICTURE OF THAT AND YOU GO INTO THE RESTAURANT NOW, THE LACK OF SUPPORT THAT THEY HAVE SO THAT INCOME LOSS IS MAJOR TO THE FAMILIES BECAUSE THEIR DOLLARS ARE NOT STRETCHING TO THE INCOME THAT THEY HAD BEFORE.

>> YOU MENTIONED OLDER PEOPLE, TOO.

>> YES.

>> WHAT ARE YOU SEEING WITH THEM NOW THAT THEY'RE HAVING A HARDER TIME PAYING FOR THE GOESRY THAN THEY DID BEFORE.

>> ONE OF THE THINGS THAT REALLY ISN'T UNDERSTOOD, A LOT OF GRAND PARENTS TODAY ARE RAISING THEIR GRANDCHILDREN MAYBE COMING FROM A SINGLE PARENT HOME THEY MAY HAVE MOVED BACK IN WITH THEIR PARENTS.

SO THEREFORE THEIR WHOLE LIFESTYLE HAS CHANGED DRASTICALLY.

WHERE THEY JUST GOT BY BEFORE BEING ABLE TO PUT FOOD ON THE TABLE, NOW THEY'RE ADDING ADDITIONAL MOUTHS SO WHAT IS HAPPENING IS WE ARE SEEING A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF THAT.

>> TOUCHING ON THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AGAIN, ARE THE EFFECTS OF THAT CONTINUING OR TAPERING OFF NOW THAT THINGS ARE KIND OF RETURNING TO NORMAL?

>> WELL, COVID-19, WHAT IT DID IS THIS IS A LARGE PORTION WHAT HAVE WE ARE SEEING AND WHAT I MEAN BY THAT, IF YOU COULDN'T WORK, YOU WEREN'T MAKING MONEY TO PURCHASE FOOD.

CHILDREN, WHETHER THEY WEREN'T IN SCHOOL CHILDREN GOT FREE MEALS AT SCHOOL NOW THEY'RE OUT OF SCHOOL, THOSE DINNERS WERE ALL GONE.

SO NOW ALL OF A SUGGEST PEOPLE NEEDS TO COME UP WITH MORE INCOME TO PURCHASE FOOD AND THE INCOME WAS NOT THERE.

SO WE ARE SEEING THE EFFECTS OF COVID.

WE WILL SEE THIS FOR A LONG, LONG TIME.

NOW WHAT COVID HIT, FEEDING AMERICA CAME OUT AND SAID IT WILL TAKE SIX TO SEVEN YEARS UNTIL WE SEE PRE-COVID NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN IN HUNGER SO WE ARE BASICALLY YEAR THREE WE'RE FAR FROM BEING OUT OF THE WOODS.

>> DOES THAT MEAN MORE FOOD DRIVES AND FINDING WAYS TO GET THE FOOD TO PEOPLE WHO NEED IT.

>> WE ARE CONSTANTLY LOOKING ON THE INTERNET LOOKING AT MAJOR COMPANIES TO SUPPORT US THROUGH DONATIONS OF FOOD AND WE RUN GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS SUCH AS APPRECIATE EXFRESCA AND MIF HIVE FRESH EXPRESS WHERE PEOPLE HAVE TO MEET THE GUIDELINES TO THAT BUT WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS A LOT OF THE FAMILIES ARE FALLING THROUGH THE CRACKS.

THEIR INCOME IS JUST A LITTLE TOO HIGH TO QUALIFY FOR A PROGRAM.

>> AND WE ARE ALL SEEING THE EFFECTS OF HIGHER COSTS, WHETHER THAT'S GAS AT THE GAS PUMP OR WHEN YOU GO TO THE GROCERY STORE AND THE COSTS HAVE GONE UP.

WHAT EFFECT IS THAT HAVING ON THE PEOPLE YOU SERVE BUT ALSO ON WHAT YOUR ABLE TO DO-- WHAT YOU ARE ABLE TO DO?

>> THE PRICE INCREASE IS REALLY CRAZY FROM THE STANDPOINT, IF YOU THINK JUST MAYBE 18, 24 MONTHS AGO YOU COULD GO INTO A GROCER AND BUY EGGS FOR 9 CENTS A DOZEN AND NOW YOU ARE LOOKING AT $5 TO $6 A DOZEN AT THIS POINT.

THE I AM MACT IS PHENOMENAL.

-- THE IMPACT IS PHENOMENAL.

THE WEEKEND BACK PACK PROGRAM WOULD COST IS 150,000 A YEAR TO FEED THESE KID DURING THE SCHOOL YEAR.

WE'VE ALREADY SURPASSED THAT NUMBER AND WE ARE NOW SITTING AT PROBABLY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF $200,000.

>> FOR THE SCHOOL YEAR.

>> JUST FOR THE SCHOOL YEAR.

>> WILL YOU BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THOSE ASSISTANCE?

>> YES.

>> DO YOU HAVE CONFIDENCE YOU WILL FINE A WAY TO PAY FOR IT?

>> WE WILL FIND A WAY TO PAY FOR IT BECAUSE ONCE YOU START A PROGRAM, YOU CANNOT WALK AWAY FROM IT.

AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE GREATEST THINGS ABOUT THE Y IS JUST THE FACT THAT, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE COMMITTED TO MAKING SURE THAT THESE KIDS HAVE FOOD FOR THE WEEKEND AND WE WILL MAKE IT.

WE'LL BUST RIGHT THROUGH THIS.

YOU MENTIONED SNAP, SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM, A FEDERAL PROGRAM AND IT PROVIDES FOOD ASSISTANCE BENEFITS FOR PEOPLE BUYING GROCERIES AND EXPANDED DURING THE PANDEMIC SO FAMILIES WHO QUALIFIED GOT THE EXTRA SUPPORT AND PAYMENT AND THAT'S COMING TO AN END IN PENNSYLVANIA.

ARE YOU CONCERNED ABOUT THAT AND WHAT IMPACT IT MIGHT HAVE.

>> VERY CONCERNED AND I SPOKE TO A MOTHER LAST SATURDAY AT OUR FOOD DISTRIBUTION, FAMILY OF FIVE, SHE WAS RECEIVING 1100 A MONTH.

SHE GOT HER LETTER SHE IS CUT BACK TO A LITTLE OVER $300 A MONTH.

THE IMPACT OF THAT ALONE IS GOING TO BE MAJOR.

SO WHAT WE HAVE TO DO, WE HAVE TO PREPARE AND BE ABLE TO LOOK WHERE CAN WE OUTREACH, WHAT NEW FOOD CHAINS CAN WE LOOK AT TO HELP THE PEOPLE OUT.

THE USDA HAS ALLOCATED THE FOOD SUPPLY FOR 2023.

BUT IT HAS NOT RELEASED THE FOOD YET SO WHAT IS HAPPENING IS WE ARE AT THE MERCY OF WAITING FOR THEM TO RELEASE THIS, TO GO TO THE LARGER FOOD BANKS TO BE SENT OUT SO IT'S GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT BUT I'M CONFIDENT' WILL BE ABLE TO HELP THE PEOPLE IT WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT HABIT HAPPENED.

>> THEY'VE ALLOCATED IT TO EACH AREA OF THE UNITED STATES WILL GET SO MUCH OF THAT FOOD.

AND THAT GOES OUT TO THE PROGRAMS THAT ARE FEDERALLY BACKED LIKE THE FIRST EXPRESS-- FRESH EXPRESS PROGRAM WHERE PEOPLE HAVE TO COME IN AND DO SELF DECLARATIONS OF INCOME.

>> AND THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS ABOUT YOUR PROGRAM THAT MAKES IT A LITTLE EASIER, IT'S NOT THE SAME TYPE OF QUALIFICATIONS?

>> A LARGE PART OF THE PROGRAMS ARE BASED ON FOOD DONATIONS OF WAS WE RECEIVE.

THERE IS NO GOVERNMENT TIES TO IT AND THAT'S WHY WE PUSH SO HARD FOR THAT BECAUSE OF THE PEOPLE FALLING THROUGH THE CRACKS.

>> WE ONLY HAVE A FEW SECONDS LEFT BUT I WANTED TO TOUCH ON A POSSIBLE UPCOMING KERN, THE ECONOMY IS DOING OKAY SO FAR IN PENNSYLVANIA.

WE HAVE LOW UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT PEOPLE WHO AREN'T STILL FULLY EMPLOYED, BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EITHER ECONOMIC DOWNTURN OR RECESSION ON THE FRONT NATIONALLY.

WHAT CAN YOU AND OTHER FOOD PROVIDERS DO TO GET READY FOR THAT POSSIBILITY?

>> I THINK THE BIGGEST THING IS A PLANNING ISSUE WHERE MORE OF US GET TOGETHER AND WORK TOGETHER I'M A STRONG BELIEVER THAT SURVIVE ANYTHING LIKE THIS, UP HAVE TO LOOK AT IT FROM A COMMUNITY STANDPOINT.

HOW CAN WE PUT OUR ARMS AROUND EACH COMMUNITY TO MAKE IT STRONGER AND IT HAS TO COME FROM WITHIN EACH COMMUNITY NEEDS TO LOOK AT THIS AND SAY OKAY, WE WANT TO HELP OUT.

WHAT DO WE NEED TO DO?

WE LOOK AT THINGS FROM A NATIONAL STANDPOINT OR STATE STANDPOINT AND IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO REALLY MAKE SOMETHING HAPPEN WHEN YOU ARE TALKING MILLIONS AND MILLIONS OF PEOPLE.

IF YOU MAKE IT DOWN AND MAKE IT A COMMUNITY, IT'S MUCH MORE SIMPLE.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR COMING IN TO TALK WITH US.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

WE JUST HEARD IN MEL CURTIS WITH THE CENTRE COUNTY'S YMCA PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE THINGS HE MENTIONED IS AN END TO EXTRA SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION TRIGS ASSISTANCE PROGRAM BENEFITS THAT PROVIDED FAMILIES WITH CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT MONEY TO BUY FOOD AND THAT'S ENDING IN PENNSYLVANIA.

AND I WONDERED WHAT YOUR THOUGHTS WERE ON WHAT TYPE OF IMPACT THAT COULD HAVE NOT JUST ON THE FAMILIES BUT ON THE BUSINESSES.

PEOPLE HAVE LESS MONEY TO BUY GROCERIES OR LESS MONEY TO BUY OTHER THINGS THAT THEY FEEL THEY NEED TO HAVE TO CUT BACK ON, ANY THOUGHTS ON WHETHER THAT COULD HAVE A RIPPLE EFFECT?

>> ACTUALLY, IT'S REALLY ADMIRABLE TO HEAR MEL AND THE Y DO WHAT THEY'RE DOING AND HE PUT HIS FINGER ON IT AT THE END, THIS IS A COMMUNITY EFFORT AND THESE PERIODS OF VERY DIFFICULT TIMES AND THAT'S HAPPENED IN THE PAST AS WELL.

IN PERIODS OF DIFFICULT TIME, IT'S THE COMMUNITY THAT BASICALLY HAS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GROUP AND PUT THEIR HAND AROUND IT AND LIKE MEDICAL, I'M VERY OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DO THAT AND LIKE HIM I THINK THERE IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER THREE OR FOUR YEARS BEFORE THIS WHOLE THING WORKS ITSELF THROUGH.

AND IF IN FACT WE HAVE A REEDUCATION, WHICH I DON'T THINK WE WILL BUT WE MAY, THAT WILL EVEN MAKE IT DOUBLY IMPORTANT FOR THE COMMUNITY TO PUT THEIR HANDS TOGETHER AND HELP BUT WITH CHUMPS AND COMMUNITIES, ET CETERA, WE REALLY NEED TO BE COGNIZANT OF WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE PEOPLE IN OUR IMMEDIATE SURROUNDINGS.

>> DEFINITELY, ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT WHETHER THERE COULD BE RIPPLE EFFECTS?

YOU MENTIONED SNAP IF THERE ARE CUTBACKS IN THE PROGRAMS.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT I THINK IS REALLY IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT FOLKS WHO GENERALLY HAVE VERY LOW INCOME SPEND EVERY ADDITIONAL DOLLAR THAT THEY GET AND THAT GOES DIRECTLY BACK INTO THE ECONOMY COMPARED TO SAY SOMEONE WHO MIGHT SAVE THE EXTRA DOLLAR.

FOLKS WHO ARE ON THE LOWER END OF THE INCOME DISTRIBUTION OR JUST LOST THEIR JOB ARE GOING TO SPEND EVERY DOLLAR.

THAT HAS THE MONEY MULTIPLIER EFFECT THAT CAN KEEP AN ECONOMY GOING AND SO EVERY ADRITIONAL DOLLAR I THINK DOES MATTER FOR THESE FOLKS.

>> I WANT TO LOOK AT THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND TALK ABOUT THAT SIDE OF THE COIN.

UNEMPLOYMENT IN PENNSYLVANIA WAS DOWN TO 3.9% AND THAT'S A RECORD LOW 9 RATE IN DECEMBER NATIONALLY.

WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT A VERY LOW RATE, 3.4%.

HASN'T BEEN THAT LOW IN 50 YEARS.

WE ALL SEE THE NOW HIRING SIGNS AND SIGNING BONUSES BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS NEWS OF ALL THESE MASS LAYOFFS AT CORPORATIONS AND AGAIN IT KIND OF BECOMES A HEAD SCRATCHER WHAT IS GOING ON WITH JOBS HIRING AND LAYOFFS AND WAGE FREEZES OR HIRING FREEZES AT THE SAME TIME.

HILARY, CAN YOU SHED ANY LIGHT ON THAT AND WHY SOME COMPANIES ARE LOOKING FOR WORKERS AND THEN OTHER CORPORATIONS ARE HAVING MAJOR LAYOFFS?

>> I THINK INDUSTRY REALLY MATTERS.

SO WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE COMPANIES THAT ARE HAVING LAYOFFS, A LOT OF THESE ARE IN THE TECH INDUSTRY.

THINK WE ARE SEEING HEADLINES ABOUT GOOGLE LAYING OFF 10,000 EMPLOYEES OR AMAZON.

ALL OF THOSE ARE CONCENTRATED IN THIS PARTICULAR INDUSTRY.

AND TO BE CLEAR, YOU KNOW, THOSE LAYOFFS ARE ACTUALLY A REALLY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF OVERALL EMPLOYMENT.

SO WHEN WE THINK ABOUT IT FROM A NUMBERS PERSPECTIVE, YOU KNOW, GOOGLE LAYS OFF MAYBE 10,000 EMPLOYEES.

THERE ARE 165 MILLION WORKERS IN THE UNITED STATES.

SO THESE ARE HAPPENING AND IT'S BAD FOR THE PEOPLE IT'S HAPPENING TO BUT IT'S A SMALL SEGMENT OF THE OVERALL WORKFORCE.

BY COMPARISON, WHEN WE THINK ABOUT HOW THE OVERALL WORKFORCE IS DOING AND THINKING ABOUT INDUSTRIES LIKE EDUCATION, HOSPITALITY, HEALTHCARE, ALL OF THOSE TEND TO BE DOING STRONGER AND ARE REBOUNDING POST PANDEMIC AND SO THAT'S WHY WE ARE SEEING THE HEADLINES OF THOSE BEING LIKE VERY HIGH AND HAVING WAGE GROWTH IN THOSE PARTICULAR INDUSTRIES.

>> SO THINGS ARE SORT OF SHUFFLING AND SHIFTING AROUND.

WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON, WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF IT WHEN YOU SEE SOME OF THE INDUSTRIES HAVING MAJOR LAYOFFS AND OTHER INDUSTRIES STILL WITH THE HELP WANTED SIGNS?

>> I AGREE WITH HILARY, THE PROOF OF THE PUDDING IS IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND THAT'S REALLY GONE DOWN SO IF THEY LOSE A JOB HERE, CHANCES ARE MANY OF THEM WILL FIND ANOTHER JOB SOMEWHERE ELSE.

HOWEVER, THE QUESTION BECOMES AT WHAT RATE?

IF THEY HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN SALARY, WHAT WOULD HAPPEN, ET CETERA, HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR THEM TO GET A NEW JOB.

BUT IN GENERAL, I REALLY THINK, IF YOU LOSE 10,000 JOBS IN GOOGLE, THAT'S AN AWFUL THING FOR THE PEOPLE WHO LOST THEIR JOBS BUT IN THE SCOPE OF THINGS AS HILLLY MENTIONED, THAT IS NOT THAT IS NO THE THAT SIGNIFICANT AND REALLY THOSE HIGH TECH PEOPLE ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE ABLE TO FIND A POSITION RELATIVELY QUICKLY.

>> SO DEPENDING ON WHAT TYPE OF JOB YOU HAVE AND YOUR BACKGROUND AND EXPERTISE AREA IS IN, YOU MIGHT BE ABLE TO FIND A JOB PRETTY QUICKLY.

ARE THERE PLACES THOUGH, TYPES OF POSITIONS THAT PEOPLE WHO LOSE THEIR JOB ARE GOING TO HAVE A HARDER TIME REGAINING THEIR POSITION OR IS IT STILL THERE IS ENOUGH HIRING GOING ON PEOPLE SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIND SOMETHING?

>> IN MANUFACTURING, SPECIFICALLY IN THE FACTORY CLOSED DOWN, IT WOULD TAKE A MUCH LONGER TIME FOR EMPLOYMENT TO COME BACK OR THE EMPLOYEE TO FIND AN APPROPRIATE POSITION BUT IN HOSPITALITY, IF YOU LOSE YOUR JOB, AS HILARY MENTIONED THE HOTEL BUSINESS IS GROWING TRAVEL BUSINESS IS GROWING RAPIDLY AND I JUST SAW A REPORT THAT THERE ARE MORE PEOPLE FLYING RIGHT NOW THE THAN BEFORE THE PANDEMIC.

SO TRAVEL HAS PICKED UP.

HOSPITALITY HAS PICKED UP SO THESE PEOPLE WILL BE ABLE TO FIND POSITIONS FAIRLY QUICKLY.

>> AND SO THIS KIND OF RESHUFFLING OF JOB POSITIONS, IS THAT WHY WE SEE THOSE HELP WANTED SIGNS OUT BECAUSE THAT'S A QUESTION THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE.

YOU SEE LIKE THE WAGES ARE GOING UP AND BUT THERE ARE COMPANIES HAVING A HARD TIME FILLING CERTAIN TYPES OF JOBS.

SO YOU WONDER WHERE DID ALL THE PEOPLE GO?

>> I THINK THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION.

WHERE DID ALL THE PEOPLE GO?

AND I THINK THERE ARE TWO THUNKS GOING ON WITH THE HELP WANTED SIGNS IN PARTICULAR.

A LOT OF FOLKS LEFT THE LABOR FORCE COMPLETELY DURING THE PANDEMIC AND BY LABOR FORCE I MEAN THEY'RE NOT EMPLOYED AND NOT LOOKING FOR WORK.

THESE TYPES OF DISCOURAGED WORKERS, MANY OF THEM HAVEN'T NECESSARILY COME BACK SO WE HAVE SEEN THIS IN TWO SEGMENTS IN PARTICULAR.

ONE ELDERLY WORKERS, THEY SEEM TO HAVE LEFT, YOU KNOW, EARLY RETIREMENT, FOR EXAMPLE, I KNOW A TON OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE DONE THAT AND THEY'RE NOT INTERESTED IN COMING BACK.

WE HAVE ALSO SEEN MEN'S LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION SEEMS TO BE LOWER AT THIS MOMENT RELATIVE TO WHERE IT WAS DURING THE PANDEMIC.

IT IS TRUE THAT WE HAVE WORKERS WHO ARE, YOU KNOW, DISCOURAGED FOR LACK OF A BETTER TERM I WILL SAY ON THAT FRONT I'M OPTIMISTIC THAT IF WE KEEP UNEMPLOYMENT PLOA AND IF THE LABOR MARKET CONTINUES TO DO WELL AND WAGES CONTINUE TO GROW AS A RESULT BECAUSE WHEN UNEMPLOYMENT IS LOW WORKERS HAVE THE BARGAINING CHIPS.

THEY CAN SAY HEY, THIS IS WHAT I WANT.

SOY IF THEY DO THAT AND WAGE GROWTH CAN CONTINUE TO GROW, I THINK THAT THOSE WORKERS WILL EVENTUALLY, SOME OF THEM WILL COME BACK INTO THE LABOR MARKET.

IT MIGHT NOT BE ALL OF THEM, BUT I DO THINK IT'S A PROCESS THAT WE ARE WATCHING HAPPEN.

>> GREAT.

>> HILARY'S POINT IS VERY VALID THAT THEY MAY COMEBACK AND SOME OF THE STATISTICS REINFORCES THAT.

THE NUMBER OF NEW COMPANIES SET UP HAS JUST GROWN PROGRAMMEDLY, NUMBER OF NEW COMPANIES SET UP BY ELDERLY PEOPLE WHO HAVE RETIRED HAS GROWN, SO I JUST WANTED TO REINFORCE WHAT HILARY SAID.

>> THANK YOU, AND WE WILL TAKE A BREAK TO SAY IF YOU ARE JOINING US, I'M ANNE DANAHY AND THIS IS WPSU'S CONVERSATIONS LIVE MAKING SENSE OF THE ECONOMY.

WE ARE TALKING WITH TWO EXPERTS AND WE WOULD LIKE TO HEAR FROM YOU.

YOU CAN JOIN THE CONVERSATION BY CALLING 1-800-543-8242 OR EMAIL US AT CONNECT@WPSU.ORG.

WE HAVE A CALL FROM KEN.

THANKS FOR CALLING.

DO YOU HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?

>> YES AND THANK YOU FOR TAKING MY CALL I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW, IT SEEMS THAT SO FREQUENTLY IN THESE INFLATIONARY TIMES, COMPANIES INCREASE THEIR PRICES OR MAKE OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THEIR PRODUCTS TO COVER INCREASED COSTS.

AND YET AT THE SAME TIME THEY REPORT RECORD PROFESSIONALS.

IS IT SIMPLY THAT THEY'RE TAKING ADVANTAGE.

SITUATION OR ARE THERE OTHER FACTORS AT PLAY.

>> GREAT QUESTION, KEN.

THANK YOU.

I DON'T KNOW HILARY, DO YOU WANT TO START US OFF ON THAT ONE?

GLUTLY.

-- >> ABSOLUTELY.

I THINK THE QUESTION ABOUT THE PROFITS IS REALLY AN INTERESTING ONE.

AGAIN, I THINK THIS SORT OF COMES DOWN TO INDUSTRY.

SO YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY CORRECT WHEN WAGES INCREASE, EMPLOYERS ARE OFTEN THE ONES THAT ARE FACING THAT HIGHER LABOR COST.

THIS ACTUALLY TENDS TO BE A BIGGER PROBLEM IN SERVICE-BASED INDUSTRIES.

AGAIN, THINK ABOUT FOOD AND RESTAURANTS, AND ACCOMMODATION WHERE A LARGE SHARE OF THE EMPLOYER COST IS PAYING WAGES OR PAYING WORKERS EARNINGS AND SO IN THOSE TYPES OF INDUSTRIES, YOU MIGHT SEE A PRICE INCREASE ON YOUR MEAL OR IF YOU GO TO THE BAR, THOSE TYPES OF PLACES, EMPLOYERS DON'T HAVE A LOT OF WIGGLE ROME TO-- WIGGLE ROOM TO ABSORB THE HIGHER COST SO IT GETS PASSED DOWN IN TERMS OF PRICES.

WHAT I THINK IS REALLY INTERESTING IS INSTANCES LIKE TECH COMPANIES, THEY HAVE ALSO RECORDED RECORD PROFITS AND PART OF THAT IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE WERE ALL ONLINE SO MUCH DURING THE PANDEMIC, I WILL FRANKLY BE SURPRISED IF THEY HAVE AS LARGE PROFITS COMING INTO THIS YEAR WHEN WE ARE ALL BACK IN PERSON, LESS LIKELY TO BE USING ALL OF THESE, YOU KNOW, INTERNET MODES OF CONNECTION.

BUT IT'S WORSTED KEEPING AN EYE ON.

I WANT TO REINFORCE SOMETHING KEN SAID.

I THINK IT'S A REALLY BAD LOOK FOR EMPLOYERS IF THE WORKERS ARE ASKING FOR LARGER WAGES AND THEY HAVE SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES, IF THOSE COMPANIES ARE REPORTING RECORD PROFITS AND ESSENTIALLY FUNNELING ALL OF THAT COST ON TO THE CONSUMER THAT'S A PRETTY BAD LOOK IN MY OPINION.

>> DO YOU HAVE ANY THOUGHTS ON WHAT IS GOING ON AND WHAT WE PIET EXPECT TO SEE?

>> RIGHT, THERE IS ALWAYS AN EXEMPTION OR EXCEPTION.

THERE ARE MANY COMPANIES THAT ARE PERFORMING MARGINALLY IN TERMS OF PROFITABILITY.

THERE IS, OF COURSE, A HANDFUL THAT MADE A LOT OF MONEY.

BUT MANY OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE NOT MADE AS MUCH MONEY AS THEY'VE DONE IN THE PAST.

SO AS HILARY MENTIONED, IT DEPENDS ON THE INDUSTRY, IT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING.

AN EXAMPLE WOULD BE AIR TRAFFIC.

AIR TRAFFIC PRICES HAVE GONE UP BUT THE PROFITABILITY OF AIR TRAFFIC WITH THE ONE OR TWO EXCEPTIONS THAT ARE VERY LARGE AIRLINES THAT HAVE MONOPOLISTIC POSITIONS IN SOME PLACES, THE PRICES HAVE NOT GONE UP BUT CEP IS ABSOLUTELY RIGHT IF THERE IS MONOPOLISTIC CAPABILITY AND THERE ARE SHORTAGES, SOME OF THE COMPANIES HAVE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF IT AND THAT, UNFORTUNATELY, IS PART OF OUR CAPITALISTIC SYSTEM.

>> SO WE ARE GOING TO LISTEN TO A COMMENT WE GOT FROM SOMEBODY OUT SHOPPING WITH ABOUT WAGES AND THEN WE'LL GET YOUR THOUGHTS ON IT.

>> EVERYTHING CAN'T KEEP INCREASING BUT WAGES AND SALARIES.

IF THE COST OF FOOD IS GOING TO INCREASE, THE COST OF GAS IS GOING TO INCREASE, THE COST OF CLOTHING, GOD KNOWS HOUSING HAS INCREASED, YOU GOT TO INCREASE WAGES AND SALARIES.

>> SO WE HAVE SEEN SOME WAGE AND SALARY INCREASES.

WE TALKED ABOUT THIS A LITTLE BIT BEFORE BUT NOT IN NECESSARILY KEEPING WITH THE OTHER COSTS GOING UP.

SHOULD EMPLOYEES FEEL THEY'RE IN THE DRIVERS SEAT BECAUSE THERE IS LOW UNEMPLOYMENT RATE?

WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK?

>> I THINK IT'S FAIR TO FEEL THINGS ARE STRONG EVEN IF THERE IS A STRONG LABOR MARKET.

AS THE CALLER SAID, THE PRICES OF MANY OF OUR HOUSEHOLD CONSUMER PRODUCTS ARE STILL INCREASING.

SO WHILE THERE IS WAGE GROWTH AND WHILE I'M OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THAT WAGE GROWTH, IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY OFFSET THE FACT THAT PRICES ARE INCREASING.

ONE THING THAT IS HELPFUL TO KEEP IN MIND IS THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT AND AGAIN THINKING ABOUT HOW WE ARE IN UNPRECEDENTED TIMES.

HISTORICALLY, WAGE GROWTH HAS SUPERCEDED PRICE GROWTH.

SO THE FACT THAT WE ARE KIND OF IN THE OPPOSITE SITUATION TELLS ME 1 THAT THIS IS DEFINITELY AN ANOMALY AND THE: IT MAKES ME OPTIMISTIC IT WILL BE SHORT TO MEDIUM LIVED, MAYBE FOR THE NEXT YEAR.

BUT I AM OPTIMISTIC THAT ULTIMATELY THAT TREND WILL REVERSE.

I THINK ALSO IT'S HELPFUL TO KEEP IN MIND THAT, YOU KNOW, WHILE I THINK WORKERS SHOULD BE PUSHING AND GETTING, UP KNOW, AS MUCH AS THEY CAN GET RIGHT NOW GIVEN THAT THEY HAVE A TIGHT LABOR MARKET TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE RISING PRICES ARE NOT JUST A FUNCTION OF THAT WAGE GROWTH, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE A FUNCTION OF MANY THINGS THAT ARE UNRELATED TO WAGE GROWTH LIKE THE SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES THAT FARE WAS MENTIONING.

ONE THING THAT IS WORTH NOTING IS WHEN WORKERS THINK ABOUT WAGE GROWTH, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE HAVE IN PENNSYLVANIA IS A MINIMUM WAGE OF $7.25 WHICH IS REALLY, REALLY LOW.

IT MAKES IT REALLY HARD TO MAKE ANY LIVING EXPENSES OR MAKE ENDS MEET ON THAT TYPE OF WAGE.

TO THE EXTENT THAT SOME OF THESE ARE A POLICY ISSUE, IF WORKERS FEEL STRONG ENOUGH, THERE IS A WAY TO VOICE THEIR OPINION TO THEIR YOU KNOW, POLICY MAKERS OR YOU KNOW, THEIR LOCAL LEADERS IN ORDER TO SEE THAT TYPE OF CHANGE.

>> RIGHT.

AND SOME STATES HAVE THAT.

THEY HAVE A HIGHER MIP.

PENNSYLVANIA IS WITH THE MALMINIMUM WAGE BUT SOME STATES ARE GOING IN THE OTHER DIRECTION.

WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THAT?

IF PEOPLE PUSH FOR THOSE HIGHER WAGES, WHAT ARE THE ARTICLING UMS THAT YOU HEAR THAT IF YOU RAISE THE MINIMUM WAGE OF THE STATE GOVERNMENT OR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RAISES THE MINIMUM WAGE, THAT THAT WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON BUSINESSES, PARTICULARLY SMALL BUSINESSES.

>> SURE.

I MEAN IF I MAY GO BACK BEFORE I RESPOND TO YOU, TO WHAT THE CALLER MENTIONED: UNFORTUNATELY, THE PAIN IS FELT BY THE SECTOR OF SOCIETY THAT SPENDS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THEIR INCOME ON FOOD AND TRANSPORTATION.

THOSE ARE THE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE PRICE INCREASES.

AS MEL WAS TALKING ABOUT, EGGS.

IF YOU ARE DEPENDENT ON BREAD AND MILK AND EGGS, THEN YOU WILL SEE THAT INFLATION HAS HURT YOU QUITE BADLY.

NOW WITH REGARD TO MINIMUM WAGE, THOSE ARE, UNFORTUNATELY, THE PEOPLE WHO ARE DEPENDENT ON THE FOOD.

SO UNLESS THE MINIMUM WAGE ACCURATELY CAN REFLECT WHAT THEIR PURCHASING BASKET IS LIKE, THEN IT'S REALLY NOT HEALTHY FOR SOCIETY NOW, THERE IS A POINT THAT IF YOU INCREASE MINIMUM WAGE THAT SOME OF THE INDUSTRY WILL OUGHT AUTOMATE, SOME WILL REDUCE THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES THEY WILL USE, BUT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE YOU ARE 3.6 OR 3.8 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, WE CAN TOLERATE THAT.

>> SO THERE IS ROOM FOR THAT.

WE WERE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE RISING COSTS ON THAT.

HILARY, WERE YOU GOING TO JUMP IN ON THAT.

>> I WANT TO PICK UP ON WHAT HE SAID, TOO, ABOUT THE WORKERS WHO ARE EARNING THAT MINIMUM WAGE.

BACK TO WHAT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT EARLIER WITH THAT MONEY MULTIPLIER EFFECT, WHEN YOU RAISE THE WAGE AT THE BOTTOM END, RAISING THE MINIMUM WAGE OR THE WAGES FOR WORKERS WHO ARE EARNING THAT, THAT MONEY IS GOING TO GET DIRECTLY SPENT RIGHT BACK INTO THE ECONOMY BECAUSE THOSE WORKERS ARE STILL NOT MAYBE HAVING ENOUGH MONEY FOR SAVINGS PARTICULARLY WITH THESE PRICE INCREASES, THEY'RE GOING TO SPEND ALL OF IT, YOU KNOW, AT THEIR LOCAL GROCERY STORE AND AT THE PUMP.

I WISH FOR THEM, OF COURSE THAT THEY COULD HAVE SOME SAVINGS.

BUT THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS, ALL THOSE MARGINAL ADDITIONAL DOLLARS WILL GO BACK INTO STIMULATING THE ECONOMY SO MONEY IN THE SORT OF HANDS OF FOLKS WHO WILL SPEND IT THE MOST IS ACTUALLY A REALLY GOOD THING FROM AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE.

>> WE HAVE A QUESTION AND THIS IS FROM MARY AND SHE SAYS CAN YOU PLEASE EXPLAIN THE DEBT CEILING IN AN EASY TO FOLLOW LAY PERSON TERMS AND WHY IS THERE SUCH A POLITICAL DIVIDE OVER THIS ISSUE.

THE DEBT CEILING, A DIFFERENT SEGMENT OF THE DISCUSSION ON THE ECONOMY.

I DON'T KNOW WHICH ONE OF YOU, HILARY, DO YOU WANT TO START ON TACKLING THE DEBT CEILING?

THERE IS A DISCUSSION RIGHT NOW IN WASHINGTON, THE UNITED STATES HAS A DEBT CEILING AND ONCE IT REACHES THAT, CONGRESS IS SUPPOSED TO PASS LEGISLATION OR HOWEVER THEY DO IT TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING AND THERE IS SOME DISCUSSION WHETHER THAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

WHAT IMPACT COULD THAT HAVE.

>> YEAH, SO I'M LAUGHING NOT AT THE QUESTION, IT'S A REALLY IMPORTANT QUESTION, BUT AT THE THE FRUSTRATION THIS CALLER MUST FEEL.

THERE IS SO MUCH CONVERSATION AND YET WE DON'T REALLY KNOW WHAT IT MEANS.

IMPORTANTLY THE DEBT CEILING ESSENTIALLY IS SOMETHING THAT NEED TO GET RAISED SO THE U.S. CAN PAY ITS BILLS.

THAT'S THE EASIEST WAS I TO THINK ABOUT IT.

WHEN WE ARE IN A SITUATION, A POLARIZED SITUATION, ESSENTIALLY IN OUR GOVERNMENT, WHERE REPUBLICANS ARE NOT INTERESTED IN RAISING THE DEBT CEILINGS AND DEMOCRATS WANT TO, THAT DISAGREEMENT IS THE PART THAT'S THE PROBLEM NOT ANY ONE PARTICULAR-- THAT DISAGREEMENT IS THE THING THAT LEAD TO US HAVE CONCERNS BECAUSE IF WE DON'T RAISE THE DEBT CEILING AND WE CAN'T PAY OUR BILLS AND WE DEFAULT, THAT WILL WILL BAD NOT JUST FOR THE U.S.

BUT A GLOBAL SCALE.

SO IT'S SOMETHING THAT DOES NEED TO HAPPEN AND WE DO NEED TO DO.

I THINK WE ARE HAVING A LOT OF REPUBLICANS PLAYING POLITICS ON IT AT THIS MOMENT, WHICH I THINK IS A VERY STRESSFUL SITUATION.

I'M HOPEFUL THAT WHEN PUSH COMES TO SHOVE, WE ALL GET TOGETHER AND DECIDE TO DO THE RIGHT THING, BUT THAT'S A POLITICS QUESTION.

>> THAT'S WHAT IS HAPPENED IN THE PAST SO WE CAN HOPE.

WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS?

WHAT IS THE IMPACT IF THEY DON'T GET TOGETHER AND RAISE THE DEBT CEILING?

WHAT TYPES OF TRICKLE EFFECTS COULD WE FEEL?

>> IF THEY DO NOT RAISE THE DEBT CEILINGS, IT'S ONE OF THOSE DAMAGING TO THE WORLD ECONOMY: THEY WILL DEFINITELY RAISE THE DEBT CEILING.

YOU DON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.

THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS A LOT OF POLITICS GOING ON POINTING AT EACH OTHER BACK AND FORTH.

AT THE END OF THE DAY, THEY HAVE TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING.

THEY'VE ALREADY SPENT THE MONEY.

THEY HAVE TO MAKE SURE THEY PAY FOR IT.

AND I JUST FIND THE WHOLE, THIS WHOLE, YOU KNOW, JAPANESE OPERA SYNDROME-- YOU KNOW COMICAL.

I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHAT WE ARE DOING.

THE LOGICAL THING IS TO JUST GET RID OF RAISING THE DEBT CEILING.

THE DEBT CEILING WILL BE WHATEVER IT WILL BE.

BUT WE CAN'T POLITICALLY GET OURSELVES TO ACCEPT THAT AT THIS POINT.

>> I'M GETTING OUR CALLER ALL NERVOUS AND THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS THAT THEY'RE GOING% TO HAVE TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING AND THEY WILL AND THEY WILL DO A DANCE AND GET US ALL NERVOUS AND THEN FINALLY SIT DOWN AND RAISE IT.

[LAUGHTER] >> THAT'S REASSURING TO THINK THAT THEY THINK WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO IT, WHEN PUSH COMES TO SHOVE, THAT THEY WILL RAISE THE DEBT CEILING.

THAT WE AREN'T GOING TO BE IN THAT SITUATION.

>> I THINK THAT'S TRUE.

>> WHAT ARE THE OTHER CHANGES WE'VE SEEN IN THE ECONOMY OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS DUE IN PA LARGE PART TOFT COVID-19 IS DIFFERENT WORK ARRANGEMENTS, FLEXIBLE HOURS, WORKING FROM HOME, WORKING REMOTELY.

THERE WAS SOME OF THAT EVEN BEFORE THE PANDEMIC, OBVIOUSLY.

BUT NOW IT'S GOTTEN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD.

ON THE OTHER HAND THERE ARE BUSINESSES THAT ARE GOING BACK TO SAY NO, LIKE EVERYONE BACK IF THE OFFICE.

BACK IN PERSON WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THAT, IS THIS SOMETHING YOU THINK WILL HAVE A LONG-TERM CHANGE IN THE ECONOMY AND JOBS OR IS IT IN FLUX AND WAIT AND SEE.

>> I THINK IT'S A LITTLE BIT OF BOATED RIGHT NOW WHICH IS FUN.

WE ARE SEEING SOME REAL LIFE EXPERIMENTS.

I KNOW FOR EXAMPLE DISNEY HAS CALLED ALL OF THEIR EMPLOYEES BACK.

AND I THINK THERE ARE PROS AND CONS TO BOTH.

ON THE PLUS SIDE PEOPLE ARGUE THAT COMING INTO WORK EVERY DAY BOOSTS EMPLOYEE MORALE, FOSTERS A SENSE OF COMMUNITY THAT CAN MAKE EMPLOYEES FEEL MORE LOYAL, WHICH MIGHT MAKE THEM MORE PRODUCTIVE AND IN GENERAL, LIKE THEIR JOB POTENTIAL LIP MORE AS A RESULT.

I THINK THAT'S ONE SIDE.

ON THE OTHER HAND, IT'S BEEN INCREDIBLY HELP HELPFUL FOR MANY PEOPLE TO BE ABLE TO HAVE THE FLEXIBILITY OF BEING ABLE TO WORK FROM HOME SOMETIMES AND COME IN.

THAT'S THE SITUATION I FIND MYSELF IN AND I LOVE IT.

I THINK IF YOU HAVE CHILDREN OR CHILD CARE RESPONSIBILITIES, IT CAN BE HELPFUL TO HAVE THE HYBRID WORK STYLE.

ONE THUNK THAT I THINK IS TRUE RIGHT NOW IS A LOT OF EMPLOYERS ARE USING THIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO SAVE MONEY, SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO PAY RENT ON A BUILDING IF YOU GO COMPLETELY VIRTUAL AND IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WE FIND OURSELVES CURRENTLY IN WITH PRICES HIGH AND INFLATION HIGH, I THINK IT'S A SMART MOVE FOR EMPLOYERS TO USE THIS AS ONE TYPE OF COST CUTTING STRATEGY TO WEATHER, YOU KNOW, THIS PARTICULAR PART OF THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY FROM COVID-19.

>> THAT'S A GOOD POINT.

COULD WE ADD A COST SAVER AND COST SAVER FOR EMPLOYEES, TOO, IF THEY'RE NOT HAVING TO DRIVE AND COMMUTE AS MUCH.

WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THAT?

DO YOU THINK IT'S A WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT OR DEFINITELY PERMANENT CHANGES THAT ARE IN PLAY?

>> I HONESTLY BELIEVE THERE ARE CHANGES IN PLACE.

OLD FOLKS LIKE ME PROBABLY DON'T MIND GOING TO THE OFFICE YOU THE.

BUTTITE VIRTUAL RIGHT-- I'M VIRTUAL RIGHT NOW SO WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT.

TALKING TO MY CHILDREN, I HAVE THREE KIDS, AND THEY WILL NOT ACCEPT A JOB IF THEY CANNOT AT LEAST HALF THE TIME BE VIRTUAL.

AND I DON'T THINK THEY'RE ATYPICAL.

SO THE YOUNGER GENERATION WANTS THE FLEXIBILITY AND IF THEY'RE A SINGLE MOM OR THEY HAVE CHILDREN THEY HAVE TO TAKE CARE OF, OR THEY'RE ELD OTHER AND ARE TAKING CARE OF GRANDCHILDREN, YOU KNOW, I DON'T THINK WE CAN GO BACK TO THE DAYS WHERE YOU HAVE TO GO TO THE OFFICE FIVE DAYS A WEEK.

THERE WILL BE SOME SHIFT TOWARDS THAT.

BUT I THINK THE TREND HAS ALREADY GELLED AND WE ARE GOING TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WORKING FROM HOME OR WORKING WHILE YOU ARE ON VACATION OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.

>> WORKING ON VACATION IS THE OTHER SIDE OF IT, TOO, THE OTHER HALF OF IT ONE OTHER ISSUE THAT IS COMING UP A LOT IS A MOVE TO A GREENER ECONOMY THAT COULD BE GREEN ENERGY, IT COULD BE GREEN ECONOMY JOBS LOOKING AT WAYS TO BE MORE ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY IN ALL LINES OF BUSINESS.

I WONDER WHAT YOUR THOUGHTS ARE ON THAT, TOO BECAUSE THERE IS A PUSH TO USE MORE ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY ENERGY BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, YOU STILL HAVE LARGE SCALE DEPENDENCE ON COAL AND OIL, GAS AND OIL.

HILARY, WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THAT?

I MEAN THERE IS A POLITICAL PUSH AND THIS IS ALSO BECOMES A LITTLE BIT OF A POLITICAL BATTLE.

BUT IS THAT SOMETHING WE CAN SEE MORE OF, GREEN ENERGY JOBS?

>> I THINK WE WILL.

I MEAN PERIOD AND I THINK WE WILL BECAUSE WE HAVE EVEN HUGE LEGISLATIVE POLICY PASSED OVER THE LAST TWO WREERS YOURS.

THE TWO POLICIES THAT COME TO MIND MIND IS THE INFRASTRUCTURE AND JOBS ACT I THINK IT'S CALLED AND BOTH OF THOSE ESSENTIALLY ARE ALLOCATING MILLIONS AND MILLIONS OF DOLLARS INTO THE STATES TO BOTH MAKE OUR INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENT TO CLIMATE CHANGE.

THAT'S ONE FORM OF A GREEN JOB, IT'S, YOU KNOW, THINGS LIKE DOING MAKING OUR HIGHWAYS LIKE IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF OUR HIGHWAYS, WE SOO THIS ON SOUTH ATHER THON RIGHT NOW-- ATHERTON.

THEY GOT SOME OF THE MONEY.

THEY'RE MAKING OUR INFRASTRUCTURE CLIMATE RESILIENT AND THAT CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS A GREEN JOB.

WE ARE ALSO SEEING IT IN THINGS LIKE PEP PEN JUST GOT $100 MILLION TO DO-- PENNSYLVANIA GOT 100 MILLION-DOLLAR TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND THE ACCESS OF BROADBAND TO UNDER SERVED AREAS OF THE COMMONWEALTH AND THAT IS MAKING OUR ECONOMY MORE RESILIENT TO CLIMATE CHANGE.

SO THESE GREEN JOBS CAN TAKE A LOT OF FORMS, NOT JUST RENEWABLE ENERGY JOBS ALTHOUGH I THINK WE WILL SEE THOSE AS WELL.

>> I WANT TO GET ONE LAST QUESTION IN.

THERE IS CONCERN AND WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT THIS, THAT WE COULD BE HEADED TOWARD AN ECONOMIC RECESSION OR AN ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN.

WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THAT?

ARE WE HEADED FOR APRIL ECONOMIC RECESSION AND WHAT WILL YOU BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS YEAR AS ECONOMIC INDICATORS GO TO SEE WHETHER THAT'S HAPPENING?

>> >> I WOULD LOOK AT THREE THINGS AND HILARY ALREADY MENTIONED A COUPLE OF THEM.

ONE IS UNEMPLOYMENT, ONE IS WORKERS PARTICIPATION AND FINALLY CONSUMER SPENDING.

UNEMPLOYMENT AND WORKER PARTICIPATION IS PRETTY GOOD.

UP TO NOW, CONSUMER SPENDING HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD.

AND AS LONG AS THOSE THREE MORE OR LESS STAY WHERE THEY ARE, I DO NOT BELIEVE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A RECESSION.

WE MAY SLOW DOWN BUT WE ARE NOT GOING TO HAVE A RECESSION.

HOWEVER, IN PARTICULAR, IF CONSUMER SPENDING ALL OF A SUDDEN DRIES UP OR SLOWS DOWN, I THINK WE WILL HAVE A RECESSION.

BUT IF WE DO, IN MY OPINION, IT WILL BE MILD.

>> IS THERE A TIMEFRAME THAT YOU WILL BE LOOKING AT WHEN YOU WILL START TO GET A SENSE OF THAT?

>> WELL, IF WE ARE GOING HAVE A RECESSION, IT'S PROBABLY GOING TO BE IN THE NEXT 18 MONTHS.

BUT AGAIN, I DON'T BELIEVE WE ARE THERE.

>> AND HILARY, WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON.

WHAT WILL YOU BE KEEPING AN EYE ON AS FAR AS EXEK INDICATORS GO AND DO YOU HAVE ANY THOUGHTS ABOUT WHETHER IT'S LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF SLOWP.

>> YEAH, SO WITH THE ECONOMIC INDICATORS, I ESSENTIALLY FOLLOW THE EXACT SAME ONES HE MENTIONED.

WE ARE IN SYNC ON THAT.

I WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT CONSUMER SPENDING.

I WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION.

I THINK ONE THING THAT IS HELPFUL IN THINKING ABOUT A RECESSION IS, YOU KNOW, GETTING A SENSE OF WHAT THE DEFINITION IS.

AND ESSENTIALLY, DEFINITION OF A RECESSION WOULD BE AN ECONOMIC DOWN TURN OF A SUFFICIENT DEATH, DURATION AND DIFFUSION AND THAT'S FROM THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH MUCH THAT'S HOW THEY DEFINE IT.

WHAT THAT MEANS ESSENTIALLY IS A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO HAPPEN FOR THE ECONOMY TO CALL IT A RECESSION.

WE FEED LIKE SEVERAL MEASURES OF ECONOMIC DOWNTURN FOR THAT TO BE TRUE.

SO IF UNEMPLOYMENT GOES UP AND CONSUMER SPENDING DRIES UP, THEN WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE A RECESSION.

IF JUST ONE OF THOSE INDICATORS, YOU KNOW, MAYBE GOES SOUTH, SO MAYBE UNEMPLOYMENT GOES UP BUT CONSUMER SPENDING STAYS STEADY, WE MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY ENTER A RECESSION.

THE THING THAT'S, I THINK, IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND ESPECIALLY NOW AS WE HAVE THIS KIND OF MIXED ECONOMY WITH HIGH PRICES BUT REALLY STRONG WAGE GROWTH AND LOW UNEMPLOYMENT, IS WHEN THEY BOTH KIND OF GO THE SAME WAY.

WHEN WE SEE THE SAME SIGN.

AND SO IF THAT HAPPENS, THEN I THINK I WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A RECESSION.

>> AND THE SAME QUESTION TO YOU, IS THERE A TIMEFRAME THAT WE MIGHT KEEP IN MIND WHEN YOU WILL KNOW?

>> WELSHING THIS IS THE BEST WAY TO MAKE SURE THAT I'M WRONG IS BY PREDICTING ON LIVE RADIO.

BUT I THINK FOR ME, I WOULD ALSO SAY THE NEXT 1 MONTHS.

IF SOMETHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN, IT WILL HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR, I WOULD BET.

I'M REALLY OPTIMISTIC THAT THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

BUT IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE JUST KEEP LOOKING AND KEEP REFLECTING ON WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE ECONOMY.

>> OKAY.

WELL, WE WILL MAKE SURE TO HOLD YOU TO THAT.

AND WE WILL COME BACK IN ANOTHER SIX OR 12 MONTHS AND WE'LL TALK TO BOTH OF YOU TO PULL OUT THE OLD TAPE AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING.

I JUST WANT TO THANK YOU BOTH, HILARY WETHING AND FARIBORZ GHADAR, THANK YOU BOTH FOR SHARING YOUR EXPERTISE AND INSIGHT WITH US.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR HAVING US.

>> OUR GUESTS TONIGHT HAVE BEEN PENN STATE PROFESSORS HILARY WETHING AND FARIBORZ GHADAR.

I'M ANNE DANAHY.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US ON WPSU'S CONVERSATIONS LIVE AND PLEASE JOIN US FOR THE NEXT EPISODE ON MARCH 23, WHEN WE WILL TALK ABOUT SHAREINGTON.

WHEN PEOPLE OVERZAIRE THEIR CHILDREN'S SOCIAL ACTIVITIES ON SOCIAL MEDIA.