Michigan Voters speak out and Off the Record reports on what you said during the special correspondents edition of the election last Tuesday with Jonathan Oosting, Clara Hendrickson and Lauren Gibbons and Simon Schuster on the OTR panel.

So sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the record production of Off the Record is made possible, in part by Martin Waymire, a full service strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at martinwaymire.com and now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Thank you very much.

Welcome to Studio C, Post-election.

Lots to talk about.

Bernie Porn, Our pollster has this to say about that.

Both candidates have problems.

Both candidates for president have a vote problem in Michigan.

Voters who either voted uncommitted in Mr. Biden's case or voted for Nikki Haley, the Republican.

In Mr. Trump's case, she got almost 27% of the vote, mostly in the urban suburban areas.

And some of those voters were Democrats crossing over.

For example, Washtenaw County, Haley got 44%, Ingham 35, Kemp 34, 33% in Oakland and in the state's most conservative county, Ottawa, 33%.

And those are counties that Trump will need in the general election.

And I think that her performance would suggest that there is some weakness there in terms of Republicans not as strong as one would think, and 68% for Trump.

That's not nearly what I expected him to get.

In his victory statement, Mr. Trump ignored Ms.. Haley earlier.

He called her, quote, a joke.

So is the loss of votes for Mr. Trump a major problem?

Mr. Porn says he is currently winning battleground states.

Without them, he is trying to appeal to the MAGA base and I think that that's what they are planning on winning the election with.

Meanwhile, Mr. Biden lost his 100,000 votes, or 13% among Arab-American and Muslim voters who want him to end the war in Gaza.

Mr. Porn contends this is a bigger problem for Mr. Biden than the one Mr. Trump confronts.

However, when a 13% it's not quite as bad.

It's bad, but it's not a deal closer.

No, no.

But he quickly adds, A whole bunch of Democrats could abandon the president if there is no permanent cease fire.

If not, that could be a problem.

Among those 74% of Democrats who want a cease fire.

Just before the election, Mr. Biden hinted that a temporary cease fire could come as early as next week.

But if so, would that appease these protesters who made a statement yesterday at the polls?

Yeah, that's a big question.

So here's a question, Mr. Porn said of the two gentlemen that had that 100,000 vote problem.

Mr. Biden is in deeper trouble.

Is he right or wrong?

I don't know.

I mean, Biden's circumstances can change depending on the war and what happens over the next several months.

The problem for Trump is somewhat seemingly intractable.

I mean, these are the same voters, especially Kent County, Oakland County, that he's struggled to win over or lost.

Really, they abandoned him in 2020.

So, you know, that is a circumstance that maybe is baked in and won't change.

So, you know, theoretically, that could be a bigger issue for Trump.

That said, you know, 27% for Nikki Haley.

Let's put that in perspective.

She's a serious candidate.

It's not a big number.

Trump won pretty handily still in Michigan.

If I'm Biden and I see over 100,000 votes, what number does that remind me of?

My over 154,000 vote margin in 2020.

So in Michigan, in Michigan, it's a lot of voters.

It's significant.

And of the folks that I've spoken to who voted uncommitted, they're not sure how they're going to vote in a likely Trump-Biden rematch if Biden does not change course on the war.

All right.

That's one and one.

I think where Biden is probably looking is is he going to be able to get those people to turn out and vote for him?

Certainly, this was a protest statement.

But, you know, some of those people may decide that his stance hasn't changed enough for them to even show up on on November.

So I think I think that could be a potential like bigger issue for him if he's not garnering the support.

Obviously, Trump has the the MAGA base and they'll show up.

And then Republicans, it kind of remains to be seen.

I think.

I think it's still like the jury's still out.

Well, of the two groups, Mr. Biden has a better shot at getting his people back than Mr. Trump has getting those people back.

Do we agree on that?

Oh, not to play the curmudgeon here, but I think we're making two assumptions about these 100,000 votes.

One is that these 100,000 votes were made because solely because of the the Israel-Hamas war and not just because it's a deeply unpopular president, a lot of people consider too old to be running.

The second is that if you were to call, make this policy change for an immediate cease fire, that these people would then come back on board and turn out for him in November.

I don't know if we have substantive data that necessarily say that either those things are going to happen on Trump's side.

I think that, you know, Nikki Haley, when I went to her rally earlier this week, that almost all the attendees that I talked to said that they'd be voting for Biden instead of Trump, you know, come November if Nikki's not in the race.

And so I think when you look at these factors combined, there's not really a clear picture of how these supporters may or may not peel away from the eventual nominee as well.

Mr. Porn asserted in that piece that Mr. Trump can win with the Make America Great coalition.

Is that, doesn't he need some independent voters, which he's getting, by the way?

He absolutely does.

I mean, he lost relying on the MAGA base in 2020.

So, I mean, theoretically 154,000 votes he could win if they're super low turnout on the Democratic side for Joe Biden, which now may be primary, maybe then the MAGA base would be enough.

But, you know, if the circumstances are similar as they were in 2020, he's going to need to win back some of those exact same voters that he did not win back in this primary.

What did you make of the showing of Mrs. Haley?

Well, she made a sort of last minute appearance in Michigan.

It's not like she's been campaigning heavily in the state.

And so it was a pretty strong showing, given that context.

And I mean, clearly, Trump has a Michigan problem and her name is Nikki Haley.

I think when you look at both sides, there's certainly a lot of a lot of what's the word I'm looking for, I guess not very much excitement on either side, I think.

Yes.

Yes, enthusiasm.

Is it?

Yes.

So so when you're looking at both Democrats and Republicans, seeing a rematch is not necessarily what a lot of people in either party want it.

I think a lot of people wanted different choices, different options.

And by the time both candidates got to Michigan, it was pretty clear, with the exception of Nikki Haley, that for the most part, those were the options they were going to get.

So I would I would anticipate that, you know, perhaps by November, things might change a little bit.

But certainly, yeah, it's not just it's not just Palestine.

It's not just Trump's Trump's ongoing legal issues.

It's just people are a little bored.

I think, you know, I think when you talk to like key Biden surrogates, like Governor Gretchen Whitmer, while she's trying to cast this, is that, you know, as we move on from this primary towards November, she's essentially saying that voters are going to look to other issues as full portfolio of policy options in which she can cast Trump as sort of an existential threat on issues like climate change and democracy.

And so and yes, abortion in particular.

That's sort of the driving issue that she's tried to push, at least with her superPAC.

And so I think as you move towards November, the question is to the extent to which the incoming president sort of can sort of take his base and say, look at all this other stuff that matters and look at how important this election is going to be on these other issues.

At the same time, I think even more so than 2020, we're going to see two candidates that are really just trying to pump up the unfavorables of their opponents.

It's going to get a lot nastier.

Who do you hate the most?

if you're if you're the speaker of the House and you're looking at the Biden campaign, are you thinking this is going to keep me awake at night?

Well, Joe Tate has said he's not concerned at all about.

Yeah, that's what he says.

But I mean, we know that the top of the ticket can either lift up or drag down ballot races and with every state House seat up for reelection in a closely contested state and potentially with even tighter maps, it skews slightly more Republican that could be adopted by the court soon.

You know, it's a tight road for reelection for Democrats.

Yeah, everything Claire said is true.

I think Democrats were already looking at a potentially difficult bid to keep the state house.

If Biden continues to be wildly unpopular.

That's really going to complicate things.

And I will say the Biden campaign, they're in Michigan pretty actively right now.

They've got a lot of money.

Ed Duggan is doing his work.

His surrogates are everywhere.

I mean, they had a larger presence in the state than the Trump campaign and might pump up some numbers in some parts of the state.

But we'll see.

It's going to be a tough year potentially for Democrats.

That said, we said that before.

Yeah, I think I think that's where turnout is going to be key.

Right?

That is where it really will matter.

And certainly the Biden surrogate sense and the governor and many others are making the case, yes, things at the federal level could change how Michigan operates quite a bit, especially after having a couple of years of the Democratic majority, particularly on the abortion issue, as we mentioned.

But in in terms of actual impact on Michigan residents, changing the House would make a huge difference in what sorts of policies are getting passed, if any, get passed at all.

So I think that that's that's one of the areas that the Democrats will probably start to have to hit.

If you want to keep this majority, you got to come out and vote.

I think one of the things that you hear as an often refrain from the retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow, is that Democrats struggle to sort of tell the story of their policy accomplishments.

And I think one of the biggest advantages that Democrats are going to face heading into this general election season is that they have a lot more financial resources right now than the Trump campaign to do that.

And as a result, if Democrats at the state level can also get their fundraising game together and carry the advantage that they had in the 2022 election forward, they're going to have a lot more.

They might be able to sort of negate a little bit of those coattail effects and also have a lot more power in sort of trying to tout the policy accomplishments of Biden's first term.

But that remains to be seen.

I'd like to get your reaction.

The speaker was on the program last week and there are some people in this town who believe the electric vehicle issue is a liability for the Democrats.

He was very sanguine about that.

He just blew it off and said, we're going to run on our record.

Does he do that?

And maybe he ought to reassess what's the electric vehicle issue?

Well, the EV issue is Donald Trump is making hay and telling UAW workers, if you vote for Joe Biden, you're going to lose your job.

Next question.

Yeah, I think the challenge with that is that you have the UAW that basically premised its entire strike on making the transition a just won and winning record contracts.

So Trump is sort of up against those headwinds of workers actually in this industry getting gains in wages and benefits as the as the auto industry is changing.

But that is yet to be seen as to whether that's going to work.

And Mr. Trump will continue First of all, he'll ignore that.

Okay.

You know, just hit on the fact that jobs were at stake here right.

I think that's that's definitely a possibility.

And certainly we saw that the last time the former president was here.

But I also think you're seeing at the local and state level, they're making the other energy policies passed by legislative Democrats a big issue in terms of, you know, local control over whether you know, renewable energies or their higher energy costs, potentially if some of these things don't work out.

I think that's a message that we're going to see pretty frequently from Republicans up and down the ticket.

I think the biggest challenge that Republicans have in sort of pushing this issue and one that's an advantage for Democrats is that these are structural changes, things that are going to fundamentally alter our economy if they're allowed to move forward as they have been.

And so as a result, you're not going to see sort of the negative changes when you look at the way that electric vehicles are assembled, because this transition isn't happening nearly as quickly as, say, the Biden administration or even Governor Whitmer would like.

We're not seeing those negative effects front and center as we might and the former president speaking about so that it sort of becomes more theoretical doomsaying, at least in the minds of auto workers and voters.

It is not going to come to fruition between now and November, Is that what we're saying?

Yeah, no, but it doesn't need to.

I mean, Trump has been a master of scaring people-The Boogeyman into believing his points and all he needs to do is keep saying it.

He thinks anyways.

He thinks it's going to be a winning issue.

I think two things kind of undermine that.

One is that the UAW did secure contracts and Biden at least showed some very public support for that.

And two, I think Trump is making a very strategic mistake attacking Shawn Fain as much as he did.

I mean, I think Shawn Fain sayin might be one of the most popular people in the state right now, with blue collar workers.

So, you know, I don't think he's doing himself any favors with that.

You know, if it's if it's popularity of Mr. Feinberg, it's my pocketbook and food on my table.

I know who wins.

Let's not forget that Trump's main message of economic grievance when he first ran was about something that had already happened.

He was talking about trade deals that were done in the past, deindustrialization that already hit communities.

And now he's trying to use the sort of specter of job losses in the future.

So it's a key distinction between the sort of economic message he's running on this time.

Yeah, his message was essentially, enjoy your jobs now because he won't have them in three years while they have them now.

And that's something that that's something that he does have to contend with.

Okay.

So what's new in the US Senate race vis a vis the Republican side?

Yes, of course.

Sandy Pensler earlier this week picked up a significant endorsement from Vivek Ramaswamy, who's why is that significant?

Well, this guy's a loser.

Right.

And so, I mean, so much of this primary race is about consolidating the Trumpian base and coalescing them around a candidate.

I think Mike Rogers has been relatively successful in that up until this point.

But for a certain sort of doctrinaire ideologue wing of the MAGA movement, Vivek is really important because he sort of cast himself his entire presidential campaign as him being sort of the torch bearer, that, you know, he's a younger incarnation, more articulate incarnation of Donald Trump.

Do endorsements today in this current social media climate, meaning as much as they did 20 or 30 years ago?

I don't think so.

In a primary, I think well, I don't think Vivek's endorsement is going to make a huge difference in the primary.

That said, Sandy Pensler is very clearly trying to run in the Trump lane.

And if he gets Vivek, well, maybe Trump will follow, right?

I think that what Sandy Pensler are clearly hoping for.

The other significant development this week is that Justin Amash formally got into the GOP race.

So now you've got a number of folks who are running in the, you know, somewhat anti-Trump with Amash and Peter Meijer a little bit, although he's come around, perhaps it's getting crowded.

Mike Rogers is trying not to be the anti-Trump candidate, but, you know, he's going for moderate voters more.

And Pensler sees a very clear lane to take that Trump vote, especially with James Craig getting out.

Let's go ahead.

I would just argue that Amashs introduction into the race is an enormous gift for both Mike Rogers and Sandy Pensler because, as you're saying, Jonathan, they're going for this Trump lane and to consolidate that vote.

And so because of a is, you know, sort of libertarian lean his constitutional conservative bent that allows him to sort of attack Kent County voters, folks who are more traditionally conservative.

And then that means because Rogers and Pensler arent also fighting over that territory, that they're free to sort of go even deeper, double down.

On seeking Trump's nominee.

The Rogers people were hyping a poll that the commission from a group out of Washington, D.C. Let's take a look at that story and what that means.

the Rogers campaign itself did not pay for this poll, but a superPAC supporting him did.

And the pollster contends Mr. Rogers is leading his fellow Republicans.

Peter Meijer and Sandy Pensler, 32 to 12 to 4.

But that also means that just over half of the Republican primary voters in this poll had no idea whom they would support.

The pollster reports on how folks feel about Mr. Rogers.

In total, 63% of people say they know Mike Rogers among that 29% have a favorable view towards him.

23% have no real opinion about him and 10% are unfavorable.

In comparison, 56% have heard of candidate Meijer and 34% recognize Candidate Pensler.

But the truly big X factor in this primary is Donald Trump.

So far, no endorsement from him.

I don't think his is endorsement, means somebody wins or somebody loses.

But concedes if Mr. Trump does pick somebody, it will obviously help, which is why he explains everybody is currying favor to get it.

And on that front, he takes a shot at Peter Meijer for voting to impeach the president.

But it was pointed out that Mr. Rogers has changed his rhetoric, too.

Isn't it true your candidate flip flopped, too, didn't Mike didn't vote for impeachment?

That wasn't my question.

He had a previous position where he was critical of Trump, but now he's on board.

Yeah, but I think that's the answer.

And that's why when you look at the score, John, I want Mike's answer because he's having trouble answering.

No, I mean, I don't have trouble answering.

I think that that all the candidates have made statements both in support and at times critical of the president.

But I think it's much more difficult to overcome an impeachment vote.

The Meijer campaign spokesperson argues a poll from a PAC is not news, and Mr. Meijer is getting, quote, a tremendous response and is the only candidate who can win.

Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Candidate Pensler calls Mr. Rogers, quote, a Never Trumper and notes that two thirds of the primary vote is wide open.

And Sandy Pensler, quote, has a great path to win.

Voters will have the final say in this Republican primary to decide who is right, but that is still six months away.

That piece underscores the power of television.

Want it?

Why am I saying that?

You can see the pregnant pause, not just read about it and you could feel it.

You could feel it.

You know, I wanted to ask him afterwards, what were you thinking or were you?

what did you make of that piece?

I mean, I think that the most important thing is the number, the low name I.D.

that we have for all these candidates.

Don't know where anybody is.

And that's great for all of them because they've all flip flopped on this Trump issue.

That's undeniable.

And so either we're going to have a situation where all of them are attacking one another saying you're all flip flopping on your support for the former president, or you're going to have such a blistering amount of ads from the best funded candidates that they essentially are able to get out in front of it.

They're going to have to sort of pick between these two avenues.

And I think that Mike Rogers is probably best positioned to really become the best funded candidate in this race.

Yeah, I think to the point about whether the Trump endorsement matters, I think it does to a point, but there's certainly a way, especially with money and name recognition, to get around it.

If they do not get that endorsement.

I would point out that Trump's endorsement record in Michigan has not exactly been exemplary.

No, I mean, then that was true across the country in the 2022 cycle.

I mean, he endorsed candidates for all kinds of races, not just sort of the big ones, but this is a big one in Michigan.

It's an open U.S. Senate seat.

And even though candidates do have time and the lack of name recognition to sort of dance around the Trump issue, you can't escape a Trump impeachment vote.

And that's going to be huge in a GOP primary.

And the question will be for Republican voters, which impeachment did you find less offensive?

The one that Amash voted for, the one that Meijer voted for?

I listen, Trump had a bad track record in Michigan with his endorsements, but that was in the general election.

As far as the primary goes, I think it would be fairly influential.

Well, the pollster did eventually get around to the answer, which is a correct answer.

It is tougher to defend an impeachment vote than just some comments that were, you know, well, I didn't like what he did here or there, whatever.

Ms. Karamo, tell us what's going Woo, how much time you have to.

5 minutes and 17 seconds go.

Yeah.

So a Kent County judge on Tuesday, Election Day, which is where Kristina, Karamo, spent her Election Day.

He ruled that Kristina Karamo was properly removed as chair back on January six, voiding any actions she's taken since then.

And in a preliminary injunction, ordered her to stop calling herself or acting as the Michigan GOP chair to prohibit her from accessing bank accounts.

Email, social media accounts, all that stuff.

Karamo appealed to the Michigan Court of Appeals, which took 39 minutes to reject her request for a stay, which would have allowed her to reassume at least continue to call herself the chair ahead of these caucus conventions that are this weekend where the state party is actually going to allocate most of its delegates to the national nominating convention.

So as arguably, therefore, more important than the primary that just took place on Tuesday, I think it's in I mean, it's really interesting to see what's happening now on Karamos faction of the party, because for all intents and purposes, as we know so far, a lot could change in the next 24 hours.

This Detroit caucuses are still going to happen.

People are still going to arrive in Detroit.

But what we've seen from the Republican National Committee, what we've seen in court in terms of the legal weight, as Jonathan was noting, nothing that happens there is necessarily going to matter come the serious is this division now in the party.

Is is it is it as bad as it was a year ago?

Is it getting better?

What's the prognosis?

I mean, I would argue it's never been serious because it's not been an ideological disagreement.

It's been personality fights and fights over power and control.

I mean, the real stakes are the vote operation and for the fall and fundraising that will the Karamo people stay home?

Are they so upset that they have lost this thing that they'll bail on the party, what's left of it?

I think there's probably going to be at least a decent number of them who see the writing on the wall, see what has happened, and that they're not the true believers.

I'm sure that there are true believers who will continue being activist, but I think there are people who were previously Karamo supporters who have seen the fundraising issues, who have seen, you know, just kind of the bad press that it's gotten, you know, with the physical fighting sometimes.

Like it hasn't been a great run for the GOP in terms of you know, in terms of actually getting the support they need to make a play in Michigan.

So so I think that that's where you're going to see some people say, okay, you know what, fine.

Well, will participate in whatever this is.

Is this an inside baseball story?

Oh, completely.

I think Claire hit the nail on the head that, you know, for the Republican electorate, this doesn't matter one bit.

And I think Lauren also made a really good point in that when it comes to like what people are looking for, delegates and voters alike.

And in a leader for the Michigan Republican Party, they want someone who can build an organization infrastructure that's going to be focused on one thing and that's winning elections.

And so in terms of like where the evidence is for the legacy of Kristina Karamo as Michigan Republican Party chair, it's not looking very good for her in that regard.

And I think that that is a huge motivating factor for people, even within the party, to sort of come around and say, well, we might have lost this this war, but, you know, let's try to move on to what we really care about, which is universally among them getting former President Donald Trump reelected.

Governor Gretchen Whitmer's handed a political hot potato this week as the MSU board under investigation.

The allegation is two of members of the board, It was recommended to the governor that she removed them for their conduct from the board and the governor took the hot potato.

And what did she do with it?

So far, not much, she said.

She left it in the oven.

She's just putting the potato down for now.

I think it's it's definitely an issue that, you know, a lot of people care about very deeply.

But it's also removing trustees is is quite a feat.

And it's it's something that would be you know, it's an election year.

It's also it's just a difficult story to deal with.

It was a wonderfully crafted statement that the executive office issued.

They acknowledged the severity and the concern over what this report came up with.

And then the governor directed the board to look at it thoroughly.

While we, quote, continue to monitor the situation, What is left to monitor?

this is the university's investigation.

It's now the ball and Gretchen Whitmer's court.

I mean, I don't know necessarily what the incentive is to wade into this mess, but she could have returned it to the attorney general.

Here, take this up Ms. Nessel.

Tell me what's going on.

She could have done that.

Why are you laughing?

Because the ultimate authority in this misunderstanding, the ultimate authority for removing these chairs, rests with the governor.

And that means that if she wants to take action to it, then she touches the issue.

I mean, this has been they've got to do her due diligence.

She's not going to wander into this thing just willy nilly.

She wants back up on what should be done right.

But for the entirety of the length that it's happening, she's then attached to all the drama and all the negative press, years and years of it, that has been attached to them, which is why they're in a monitoring mode and not in an acting mode.

Amen or yes Yeah.

I mean, the investigation gave her a little out.

It said it should be referred to the governor.

And the governor said one hasn't been referred to me yet.

All right.

Thank you.

Great analysis, folks.

Thanks for tuning in.

See you next week.

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