- North Carolina Senate Republican leadership faces big changes as Phil Berger concedes to Sam Page.

And we hear from U.S.

Senator Thom Tillis on North Carolina's budget and political processes.

This is State Lines.

- Funding for State Lines is made possible in part by... - Across North Carolina, strong communities begin at home.

The North Carolina Realtors represent more than 55,000 professionals statewide, focused on expanding housing attainability for all.

- Quality public television is made possible through the financial contributions of viewers like you, who invite you to join them in supporting PBSNC.

♪♪ Welcome back to State Lines.

I'm Kelly McCullen.

Joining me today, Mitch Kokai of the John Locke Foundation to his right in what we call seat number two.

Dawn Vaughn, reporter with the News and Observer.

Billy Ball of Cardinal & Pine is in seat three.

Adam Wagner of WUNC News is in seat four today -with a lot going on.

- [Mitch] Something happen this week?

- I couldn't ask for a better group of folks to talk about it.

So let's get started.

I got a lot, what ABCDE blocks we call them.

Rockingham County State Senate race, you might have read about it, seen a bit about it, ended this week.

Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger has conceded to his Republican challenger, who is Rockingham County's Sheriff Sam Page.

Sheriff Page's 23-vote lead after Election Day was validated after a machine recount, some partial human review of ballots in Guilford and Rockingham counties.

Senator Berger is still in office, of course.

He's America's longest-serving state legislative leader.

He is the only Republican Senate leader to serve this state in the state Senate since Reconstruction back in the 1800s, the late 1800s.

And if you're a Democrat, you don't have anything to worry about, Mitch.

Sam Page wins the primary.

This is a Republican seat unless a tidal wave hits North Carolina politics.

- Yes, this is likely to be a Republican seat.

And really, the interest here is Berger in his position as the Senate leader.

And what happens now with the Senate after he will have served 16 years.

The only other person who served longer was the person right in front of him, Mark Bassnight, a Democrat who served in that job for 18 years.

To me, there are several interesting things about this.

One is we didn't end up with a long, drawn-out court fight, which some of us thought might happen.

That despite the carping from the Page camp, Berger basically just let the normal process play out.

You did the recount.

You got the hand recount that you were allowed to have.

And then rather than stretching it beyond that process, he basically said, OK, the voters have spoken.

That's not unusual to be heard, but it's a nice signal that basically Berger is saying, OK, I trust that this election was fair and square.

And he didn't say that there was something that was amiss.

I think beyond that, the other important thing in his concession statement was, one, he talked about the legacy of the Republicans since they've taken control of the General Assembly since 2011, which suggests to you that he's thinking about that and trying to preserve that.

He also said he was going to stay in the job through the rest of the year, which some of us had wondered.

If he had lost, would he take his ball and go home and just not participate anymore?

And he also said that he was going to try to help elect Republicans in November and try to help the Senate keep its veto proof supermajority.

All of those were interesting signals that we weren't really sure of until this resolution this week.

- Dawn, how closely were the election integrity crowd, that group, were they watching this race since Phil Berger had played a key role in reshaping our elections boards?

Was that ever going to be an issue had he continued the fight beyond the, I would say at this point, that partial review of, the eye review of ballots?

- Right.

So I was watching the live stream of the Guilford sample hand-eye recount, which is about as exciting as watching paint dry.

And they had observers in the room.

You know, there was whispers where they're like, Berger, Page, just very quietly.

Like, what does this mean?

You know, is this the number that is needed for things to continue?

But someone told me the other day they described Berger as an institutionalist, that he would let the process play out.

So I thought he would wait for the two election protest meetings and then make a decision then.

I think there were a lot of lessons learned by Berger and other Republicans about Riggs Griffin dragging things out.

And Berger's been around a long time.

He has multiple things that are part of his legacy.

Taxes, which is like the, you know, at the forefront now, something that's very important to him.

And I don't think he wanted, you know, dragging something out when he might still lose anyway to be what he's what he's known for.

You know, he's a very formal person.

I feel like very, you know, policy oriented.

A lot of people have different opinions on what he's you know, what he's done legislatively.

But I think this gives him the opportunity also before session starts, because session starts April 21st.

Going into it as far as what does he want to do?

And I asked him, it was a week before the primary.

I said, you know, if you lose, what do you have you thought about who's going to follow you?

Have you thought about, you know, what you would do?

And he said, you know, I remember him saying, Dawn, I do not intend to lose.

Of course he did.

But he also told me that even before the primary, that he was going to finish out his term.

He was not going to not going to not going to leave.

Now, is he going to be leader until the very end?

He he was voted by the caucus to be leader through the end.

So so that could change.

But he still has his policy priorities that he has several months to to tackle.

- Billy, out of what, 26,000 votes, 23 vote lead for Page confirmed after audits, 23 votes.

Do we give kudos to Rockingham and Guilford counties for doing a rock solid job?

- You cannot make a stronger case for the strength of our election system than what we just watched in this Berger Page race.

I mean, it literally didn't change a single vote in terms of the difference between the two candidates.

It's a remarkable testament to to the strength of it.

And I think that that that yes, I think it's very good news for people who who who want to see the gears of democracy worked well.

That Senator Berger, to his credit, got out when he did.

I think, as Mitch alluded to, there were a lot of people who thought we might be headed down this longer Jefferson Griffin flashback past that nobody wants.

And and he did not do that.

But but again, just looking at the way things played out, the way the system worked here in this race, I think our system is really strong and and people should have confidence.

- Adam, I'll ask this and we'll move to the next topic will be about who can lead the Senate Republicans in North Carolina.

But what have Rockingham and Guilford County voters done by turning out the top politician in this state for 15 years and putting in where the like Sandpage or not, whether he's a 27 or 28 year sheriff, he is a first term senator with no tenure.

- I think they've shown that local issues matter in elections.

Phil Berger, what he did in Raleigh did not matter to those voters, especially in Rockingham County, which were both these men are from.

Page won those voters by a margin of two to one Berger when the Guilford County portion district two to one.

And a lot of it is just that page has spent decades going to basketball games, directing traffic, shaking everyone's hand that he can really kind of developing that local base that carried him through here.

- I think another thing that's important about this is as we were talking about who was going to win this race.

Remember that Phil Berger has been in this top position in the Senate.

This is his 16th year.

But if you look at Rockingham County, you wouldn't say this is the county of the leader of a legislative chamber because you don't have the Phil Berger Hospital, the Phil Berger Road, the Phil Berger High School.

He has been focusing quite a bit on issues that have statewide importance.

And, you know, one of the things that we've been talking about is whether we're going to get this children's hospital.

It wasn't going to be a children's hospital in Rockingham County.

It was going to sit in Wake County.

So Phil Berger, despite all of the power, has not been one of those bring the bacon back guys where people in the county would say, well, I might not like him, but he brings us stuff.

- Is that good government?

So there's groups, some John Locke folks don't like the, you know, the Mitch Kokai Library, but maybe he should have done that all along.

- I've said this before.

From a good government perspective, it's great that he's focusing on state issues and not on just piling up as much pork as possible in his home district.

But that can cost you politically if you are not seen as someone who's taking care of the home folks.

- All right.

Some sitting Republican state senators are already expressing interest in becoming Senate President pro tem.

Now, this will be in 2027 when the caucus would meet again, elect new caucus leaders.

New Hanover County Senator Michael Lee Union County Senator Todd Johnson, Mitchell County Republican Ralph Heiss.

These are all Republicans.

They say they'll be seeking the president pro tem's office.

I think Brent Jackson out of Samson County, very much interested.

And once again, if you're a Democratic voter thinking this could result in a Democratic takeover, Dawn, they need to win the majority.

I don't see any way a Democrat can split Republican votes and end up with a Democratic pro tem.

- I think that what Senate Democrats, their goal is going to be to break that that super majority.

So it's still, you know, all signs point to that.

They'll still be a Republican Senate leader.

But the power dynamics are much different when there's not a veto proof super majority.

And this I mean, Berger is such such an institution, his whole whole era.

I've covered him for about seven years now.

So a Senate without Phil Berger leading it is just going to be a complete vibe change for the for the room, I think.

And and I think that the Republican caucus, the current Republican caucus and then whoever you know that the final numbers are after the November election, because that's when we'll they'll officially choose their next president pro tem, will be thinking about who do we want to be the face of of the Senate, the face of the Republican Party, the face of the legislature.

How are they going to work with House Speaker Dustin Hall?

How are they going to work with Senate Democratic leader Sidney Batch?

And so there's a lot of different things at play because it really just the focus is going to be on them.

They have to be comfortable being that spokesperson, really.

- You're saying face of the Republican Party.

Where's Dustin Hall fit in all this now?

He's the senior leader of the House now.

He'll be the the veteran, if you will, after what, a term or two, Billy?

- Yeah, I do think this changes things for Speaker Hall.

It certainly puts him in more of a position of power.

There was often a conversation about the power dynamic because both chambers are run by Republicans.

The question was, you know, does the Senate roll the House or does the House roll the Senate?

For years, there's been a perception that that Phil Berger, you know, quite accurately is the most powerful politician in North Carolina.

It seemed as if the Senate was running things.

So I think this does change the dynamic a great deal.

I also think that, you know, whatever your thoughts are on Phil Berger's politics, the biggest thing here is that he was seen as really the brain trust, the head of the brain trust for the Republicans in Raleigh.

And his strategizing was very effective for them in advancing their policies, whether you agreed with them or not.

So this is going to be a big change in how they run things.

And hopefully for people who want a more open government and also perhaps some listening to the other side, there was a perception as well that Senator Berger wasn't very interested in what Democrats had to say about anything.

So I think perhaps there can be some thawing there, but only time will tell.

- Adam, people in North Carolina might follow, watch this show and follow some level of state politics.

But when we start dropping names of state senators, they might be known at home, sort of, but they're not going to be known statewide.

So if you're a voter, you want to be engaged, watch our show.

How do we have a chance of sitting down and learning more about who could lead the Senate?

- Follow all of our work.

- [Kelly] It's really written homework.

It's almost like you need to read.

- Exactly.

- TV show's the one thing, but you guys write this stuff.

Will you be profiling the candidates?

Do you go that far with it?

- Sure, we will be as things kind of play out here.

Look, the Senate isn't going to pick their new leader until December.

There are a lot of things that are going to happen between now and then.

There's a short session.

There's an election season.

So there's a lot of there between here and there.

We'll just kind of see.

I think from a governing standpoint, one thing that I'm very interested in is Berger has kept that caucus so in line, especially in recent years.

And now we're already seeing three maybe different directions, maybe more than three different directions coming out.

So as we have a really substantive short session come up here with a budget, with Medicaid funding, with some other lingering issues, does the caucus break?

Do people find ways to make deals and go in different directions?

- We'll get to that.

You know, retiring longtime legislators and executives get to pass a torch to the next generation of leaders.

What do surprisingly defeated leaders get to do?

Do they have a torch to pass or do they get the torch taken and we'll handle it from here, Mitch?

- Well, they can if the rest of the crowd wants them to, but that's only going to be up to the rest of the Senate.

- How are you feeling about that?

- I like the way that Dawn described this as the potential of a vibe change because people who have been following this stuff for many years know that the way that Phil Berger and first Tom Apodaca, as the rules chairman and later Bill Rabin, went about their business was a lot like the way Mark Bassnight and Tony Rand ran things.

It was we're in control, we're going to tell the rank and file what to do, you're all going to vote the way we want you to, and when the other side has something to say, we're going to table it and not really let anything go beyond a half hour.

- And we have two people already that have publicly said that they're -- so Senator Ralph Heiss, Spruce Pine Republican, he's been -- I guess Helene Recovery has been his latest big thing.

He's also a budget writer.

Michael Lee New Hanover County, also a budget writer, also a majority leader.

So they're from pretty, you know, like significant areas of the state.

Of course, the whole state is significant.

But I'm just saying, like, you know, places that have gotten a lot of attention, will they push things for their district this session?

Will they be on opposite sides of issues because they're competing for this?

But depending on how Republicans do in November, the Republican caucus, assuming they have maybe a majority, if they lose their super majority, has got to decide what are we going to do now, and I think who they pick is going to be impacted by that.

- Which one of these finalists for these early birds that are out running for Senate pro tempore, who's raising the money to help the Senate caucus and help those individual senators when it comes time to vote?

Is there one fundraiser that stands out?

- It's been Berger's game, so I don't know that anyone else has really emerged as the new Berger.

- I do know money does help.

You can raise money and people will vote for you for leadership.

- And you're -- you know, Thom Tillis is going to be coming up shortly on the show.

That was what got him the speaker's job, was that he helped the house win the majority for Republicans in 2011.

That's when he got the job.

- A lot of barbecue to be eaten.

In one month state lawmakers return to Raleigh for the short session, they call it.

Should last, what, eight weeks or so.

State Medicaid funding will most certainly be an agenda item.

If projections hold true, our state's Medicaid program, the state budgeting shortage could affect services.

There's been pressure for months on lawmakers about not passing a fresh budget bill in favor of these many budgets for select government operations, and Dawn, take it from here, Senator Berger being lame duck, if you will, and still calling the shots in the Senate, should we focus just on what happens with leadership, not worry too much about a whole budget bill being passed?

- Well, I think the tax fight, I've described it time and time again, that Senate leader Berger and Speaker Hall, it's trench warfare.

They're dug in their trenches on taxes.

Maybe they're willing to come out now that things are -- have changed a little bit and just that pressure of not -- of taxes and spending and raises, but I think the first thing we're going to see and that they have some agreement on already between the House and Senate is that Medicaid rebase funding.

Because there is a pretty solid deadline on that for the fiscal year.

The budget, you know, hope springs eternal.

Will it be done by June 30th?

I don't know.

With the raises, it's important for people who are watching this, state employees, teachers, when they do eventually come, they are retroactive to the beginning of the fiscal year.

So if it goes into July or August.

But I don't think Berger would want his end legacy to be still no budget.

He does -- you know, he's very conservative on spending.

It would keep the spending levels low.

But I do think that the changes in the Senate and the House, maybe this power, you know, leaning toward them, like y'all were saying, that I don't know.

Again, it's hope springs eternal.

But I don't want to say something's going to happen when you don't know.

- I don't want to say I'm optimistic about budgets.

I don't think that I am.

But I think that politically there's a reason to get it done now.

I think that no budget was used as a cudgel against incumbents in the primaries already.

I think Sam page used it pretty effectively.

And I think that there are enough swing districts in the state still that super majorities, maybe even majorities in the House could be on the line if there's no budget.

- You don't want to run in the general and not have paid people any sort of raise for teachers in years, right?

I mean, that's going to be a tough sell.

- That line writes itself.

You have one job and you didn't do it.

- I think it's worth pointing out There's no other state in the position that we're in in North Carolina without the budget from last year.

- We have a budget from previous years that's tweaked and shined up every so often.

- That's the part where if you're explaining, you're losing.

Because we do have that 2016 law that says if there's no new budget, the old budget remains in effect.

There's not going to be any chance of a shutdown.

But it takes you a while to explain that.

And people still have exactly what was said before.

You have one job, right?

A budget.

And you didn't do it.

- You have that lack of certainty for the people who want to know what's going to happen with Medicaid.

For people who want to know what's going to happen with our public schools, they don't have that certainty when you cannot figure this out.

- Mitch, what do you make of the lawmakers in the Republican caucus thinking there could be enough -- I won't call it waste, but overspending, misallocation of money in certain services or eyeing autism services for a couple hundred million dollars, that there could be enough savings to be found internally in DHHS?

To cover the rebates, which is 319 million, if you believe Josh Stein's numbers.

- I'm sure they could find some waste and abuse that could be covered.

Probably not enough, though, to cover that shortfall.

And remember that one of the reasons why they're talking about cutting that autism services, that was something the Stein administration identified and wanted to make the cut.

And a court said, no, you can't do it.

- What happened with Medicaid, Billy?

If they can find the waste, should we be patient as taxpayers, let them find efficiencies in that department before just throwing money at the state funding deficit?

- I think the thing that real people sitting at home are concerned about, because they're sitting there wondering if they're going to have this service or they're going to have access to this health care.

So I think you've got to answer that question first.

Are they going to have that care?

And right now a lot of people have all the reason in the world to doubt it.

And when you don't know if you're going to be able to see a doctor or take care of a life-saving condition, then there's nothing else that -- you know, it clears your mind, I'll tell you that.

- What about these veto overrides that are out there?

It's do or die this spring, it looks like.

I haven't heard anything, anyone talk about this.

- I've heard no specific conversation about it yet.

Obviously there are a handful of House Democrats who have nothing to lose now.

So that could be kind of interesting.

- Some of those were anti-DEI bills.

So I don't know if there's a chance that they would necessarily vote for those, but there's the concealed carry permit is still floating out there.

But it's also -- I don't know, the number's in the room.

I mean, that's how it works.

- Remember of the six that were left, only one of the six had any Democratic votes the first time around.

So they would have to flip.

And you might have an angry Democrat who lost a primary saying, okay, I'll vote with you on this, but maybe not.

- I mean, new bills that are vetoed and new veto overrides and those Democrats that were primaried out of their seat, and they might have some scores to settle.

- Has anyone called Speaker Hall's office to see what Representative Hall thinks about all this?

And how it could affect the agenda.

Maybe I should do that.

- Well, he signaled that they're going to go for some kind of Medicaid reform.

In his statement about the consensus revenue forecast, he said, you know, there's going to be -- there's a billion-dollar rebate coming up, and we're going to need to find a way to pay for that somehow.

- All right.

Earlier this week, PBS North Carolina's David Crabtree interviewed U.S.

Senator Thom Tillis.

The full interview will be released online and on PBS North Carolina broadcast television.

Senator Tillis spoke candidly in the one-hour interview, even dealt with North Carolina's politics when he was asked about the struggle to pass a state budget.

- They're making a mistake.

They're making a strategic mistake by doing the CR posture and by not getting a budget done.

Businesses need certainty.

One of the reasons why we've been booming for the last decade in North Carolina is we got the business policies to the right place.

But businesses need certainty about budget and governmental priorities.

And a continuing resolution is a kick the can down the road and, in my opinion, a failure of leadership.

You got to get your differences behind you and get it done.

And, frankly, I do have to say, and objectively, I am a bit of a creature of the House, but a lot of this I have to lay right at Senator Berger's feet.

- Dawn, even Republican voters elect politicians who talk like that on the campaign, but they want them to keep talking like that when they get in office, and it never happens.

Now you've got this keeping it real Thom Tillis.

- Well, he's on his way out, right?

- The problems at the feet of Phil Berger and other Republicans who stayed behind in Raleigh.

- Well, I also think it's interesting where Tillis said, you know, he's a creature of the House.

So, again, this comes back to House versus Senate.

And Tillis and Berger have worked together before.

I don't know if they're both going to be hanging out, getting dinner together in retirement.

Somehow I doubt it.

- Talking about Tillis, he told ABC News this week, which was after this interview was recorded, he doesn't plan on running for office again.

Take him at his word.

- Yeah, and it doesn't surprise me because there have been a number of people who said, oh, you know, Thom Tillis might be a good candidate for governor, but then to be a candidate for governor, he would have to win a North Carolina Republican primary, which he probably can't do.

The last time we polled on people who were in the Senate or other positions of power, among Republican primary voters, support for Thom Tillis was 33%, opposition 51%.

Right now he's not going to win a Republican primary.

That would hurt him.

- Berger could run for governor if he wants.

- Billy, when Thom Tillis is back next year, he'll be back as a civilian, I would guess, in North Carolina.

How does he stay relevant?

How does he keep that voice out there?

Because he's saying some things.

- He's going to be one of those guys who reporters call all the time to be like, hey, can you keep it real with us on this subject?

He's already that to people because he is that guy who's on the way out.

I'll tell you what, he's never looked happier.

- I don't usually comment on whether people are happy or sad in office.

He just seems really free with his words.

But he'll stay and he'll have some relevancy because people are going to call him and they're going to want some sort of reality check on the right and the left.

And he's kind of positioned himself in his final days as that guy in the Senate.

- What does it say for a U.S.

Senator to talk about his old stomping grounds in Raleigh, at least weighing in publicly on what he perceives to be maybe a lack of operational efficiency in the Raleigh government?

- I think it says that old grudges die hard.

Tillis and Berger certainly butted heads when they were both on Jones Street.

And I think that it's very interesting that Tillis is keeping an eye on things.

It's also notable that Tillis said that he's not going to run for office this week.

Now we've seen McCrory, Tillis and Berger all kind of leave the stage.

At least as far as the last in office goes.

And that's a whole new generation of Republican leadership in Raleigh.

- It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

That's all we have time for.

Mitch, good to have you on to analyze these issues.

Thanks for keeping an eye on Phil Berger's efforts and all.

And of course, Billy, you guys down in the Capitol Press Corps and Adam, always great to have you on.

More importantly, it's great to have you watching us each and every week.

It means a lot to us.

So if you have thoughts or opinions about what we've discussed this week, send us an e-mail.

Easy to remember.

statelines@pbsnc.org.

We'll read every e-mail.

Share it with the crowd if you want me to.

I'm Kelly McCullen.

Thank you for watching.

And I'll see you next time.

[Music] - Funding for State Lines is made possible in part by... - Across North Carolina, strong communities begin at home.

The North Carolina Realtors represent more than 55,000 professionals statewide focused on expanding housing attainability for all.

- Quality public television is made possible through the financial contributions of viewers like you, who invite you to join them in supporting PBSNC.