This is the Friday, February 10, installment of our Market Plus s Joining us again.

Matthew Bennet I alluded to it.

Mr. Bennett, before we started the discussion that you've been on the road a little bit this week.

You were on the road last weeken You've hardly been at home at al What's the biggest question from Tennessee, South Dakota, Iowa, that you've been a There's a couple of them.

First of all, is old crop.

You know, what do I do in the ol corn?

I'm getting out a lot.

I get a strong feeling and I think the industry would t that ownership of beans is significantly lower than corn Just from what we're hearing.

And so people are asking, what do you think?

You know, I mean, am I going to get reward by holding on into the summer ti Will we see these big fireworks?

Yeah, that's a tough question because we don't really know what the spring crops are going to end up like.

We don't know how many acres are going to be planted.

But the bottom line is what the one thing I do know is when you're in an inverted marke you know, typically the best thi or the guarantee, if you will, is that they want i now, as far as new crops are con You know, people are asking me, are we going to get back up over Am I going to be able to get $6 You know, I mean, that's the que But I always ask them, you know, what kind of money can you make I mean, because bottom line is r you've got a lot less meat on th because we've put so much into t from an input standpoint.

We have to be really cautious.

So 596 of what we close on Frida there's the chart on the screen We in the last four months, we've tipped 641 above 16, another time about 620 So but the trend looks lower.

Is the trend lower in that new c The trend is lower.

And what you have is a series of highs.

You know, if you look at that, t it's in like for instance, on Fr you know, we get all this bullish news and enthusiasm.

You know, you've got missiles flying around and, you know, whe market's taking off and going st But these corn is really struggl to kind of get over some of your averages and and bottom line is, don't know that we get up over s I think we do.

We probably do.

What's it going to take to see t happen?

Probably something subst And so you've been lulled into t of I guess, sideways pattern for And the bottom line is this fall, we're going to break out.

If we break out to the upside, we're all happy.

We shake hands and laugh about i You break out to the downside and you don't have a plan in pla You're going to look back over m opportunity that you didn't do a And I think that you have to be very cautious in those ass You just kind of answered the first question, but you bring up in the second q and it was asked a couple of wee Gershon Hackett I had a text, we had a question from not too f from where you were speaking yes asking why, why not take advanta Why would I take advantage right when I'm and cost of production is not on my side?

Right.

And I said to the person that at me, well, do you want to lose mo Do you answer it the same way?

Here's here's my opinion whenever we look at it.

Why would I do something now?

Okay, you can do something now and still keep yourself flexible I call it locking in a worst cas scenario.

I don't know.

Shawn doesn't know None of us sitting in this this knows what the market's going to One thing that I think we all un is if the market plummets, given the fact that the US produ will definitely have put on aver the most expensive corn crop in we've ever seen in 23.

So with that being the case, your risk is significantly highe than what it was a year ago because the 22 crop most people had prepaid those inputs going i like farm progress, show time of 21, you had a cheap crop you were putting in the ground.

Then we were rewarded throughout the entire year.

And the thing is, Paul, everyone keeps telling me, well, in 2021 and 22, if I have sat on and done nothing, I would've made myself a lot mor Why would I do anything in 23?

What?

Because in 23, if it goes the other direction o you're going to be in big troubl And so the last thing I'm going this is this could be a year where you have 250 bushel corn in lose money, and you don't want that to be th You have to be protecting price because if it plummets, you're going to be in trouble.

All right.

So, Randy, he asked your answer to your que So I want to skip to the next on This one's about cotton here came from Frank off of Face He says cotton was just short of high last year.

Right now it's at 85.

Beans are within a dollar and a half of highs.

Will there be more acres switching to beans over cotton?

Yes, I feel a lot.

I feel pretty strongly about tha I think you'll probably lose a g 2 million acres of cotton just the way things look.

I'm not a cotton expert, but I d to a lot of folks that plant cot I think you lose, especially in Those those acres are probably go to s But then when you when you get o into the panhandle of Texas and areas of Texas where you produce corn, obviousl the basis has just been outlandi at times this year there's going to be a strong dem for people to get in there and p Hopefully, moisture levels will have improv enough, especially in the areas, of course, where you have dry la People will be able to get the c and going and be able to have some sort of a corn crop But I do think you lose some cotton acres of corn in Tex Okay.

Let's go back to corn for You just did.

This one's on the input side of the equatio You kind of talked about it a li but it's understanding some of these factors that are in here r And this is Ryan in Iowa and he wants to know why is anhy still at that 1175 a ton range with natural gas so low natural gas is 1/10 of th it was when nitrogen hit 1650 a Yeah, I've been talking about th and every presentation I make, I've been using charts to kind of show the whole thing.

And one thing that I'll say is this every retailer you've go the country is full of anhydrous now, but they're not full at 250 And that gas, they're just not.

And that's what stinks.

Okay.

They're sitting on a bunch of high priced inventory.

And so if I'm a producer and I've got some flexibility, I not the first one showing up to for my anhydrous this year.

I might even say dressed, whereas I don't like side dressi Maybe if I'm in that camp, I'm going to do things that mayb I don't want to do in order to s a significant chunk of money.

Because the producers I know, they're able to go to th and pick up their fertilizer, for instance.

Right now, there's so much cheap than the rest of us.

The borrowers last fall, includi But whenever it comes to anhydro ammonia, the bottom line is you can't get it as cheap as wha you think it should be based on Yes, because everyone's sitting on a very high priced su Okay.

So what about the energy side of this discussion with any inpu when it comes to crude oil drop drop in fuel prices, but a rise in crude oil this wee Right.

And so you've seen the crude oil you've seen the heating oil market, you've seen rbob.

It's just been a roller coaster up, down, up, down.

And what we've tried to tell our producers, if you want to hedge diesel fuel for instance, catch it on one of these downswi some of the lock some of your supply, end, whether you do it with your reta or whether you do it on the board of trade.

Whenever you get a huge pullback in prices, pay attention.

Last year, those that hedged in the spring, some people actually had half the price is what they had during the season for fall.

And I know for a fact that was t because we actually had some of We had we had had some of our risk in t We didn't want to do all of it because you don't know if you want to go 100% of it, you know, and it's not as easy to get in and out of contracts, you know, whenever you're talkin is maybe what it is whenever you're hedging corn and I'm not an expert in it.

I just know I wanted to lock in fuel prices.

We did the best we could, but our in-season prices out of this last fall.

Keep in mind what happened to yo You're darned if you do and darn if you don't at some point.

Well, yeah, I mean, but you know the last thing you want to do is and completely expose.

Yeah, you know, the thing I want is quantify as much of this I ca One thing I've been talking abou is risk management isn't just about corn and soybea It's about fertilizer input.

You know, when you buy your fert last fall and you had six and a to 630, you know, the farm progr time to actually lock in for the High priced inputs should be met with high priced c because you're buying high price with the thought corn price is going to stay high fore They don't.

We know that.

If you want to sell Matt Bennett I think the best time to go see him is around Farm Progress He's very cognizant of all the p at that time.

Thanks, Matt.

Absolutely.

I want to move I want to move to fill in Ontari I might circle back to the other in a minute.

With basis levels for corn consistently at historically hig over the last several months and a big disparity regionally, how transparent are prices at the local level?

Is shopping around for the best grain price more important now you've talked about basis.

You've talked about those with e that could go to the river.

How do you shop around trying to find somebody to buy y I think that anybody who you thi you might want to have any sort of a potential relationship with it comes to buying your grain, let them know what you have.

That's a good question.

And I always feel like the best you can do is to have some flexi Now, I know most producers can't store all of their corn on and I also know that a lot of pr like, for instance, hauling to the elevator whenever they're offering, maybe if it's someone that you always Okay.

But this is the type of year where physical ownership could pay humongous dividends.

And so if you're in that positio by all means, I would be very co I know some folks that have haul farther away from home than what they have in the past and made 30 to $0.40 doing it.

And even more than that, I know a lot of folks in northwe over the last couple of days have told me they've never seen levels like they're seeing them The next question is, do you think they'll get better?

You know, and so I'm just saying I don't know if they're going to get better, but can can you work with this?

Can you live with this price lev Because, you know, one thing I would tell Phil, if he's trying to figure out wha same thing I'm telling everyone If you sold out today, that last yields, what kind of money would And so then if you the answer fo folks that raise the crop is a l I don't know the exact answer.

R It's a lot.

So then your question is, what g Do me to sit here and hold on.

W that's a question.

We're going to go again.

Sorry, Julie, out of order.

We're going to go down to Jeremy in South Dakota.

He wanted to know on Twitter, can a farmer decision, a farmer' to sell grain affect the price?

If farmers pre-sold less new cro would it help prices go higher?

So that's taking what you just s I think a step further.

So if we sold less, would it help prices to go highe So in essence, whenever you sell it provides hedge pressure.

You know, I don't know that.

I mean, that's a that's a noble and it's a nice thought.

I just don't know that it's going to impact things the way t I'd flip that around a little bi If Jeremy wants to sell, for instance, at $6 or the price that would get most estate produ you know, fall delivery, which are probably around six and a quarter, 630, if that's what he wants, then I think the question you got to ask yourself is, is there anyone else in the coun one in $6 for delivery corn in t And so you got to be really caut I don't think the farmer holding if we all decided we were going to try to band tog and do that, I don't think that' to impact the price in that magn And the other thing is, is when it starts to rally, you're going to have some jerk that's going to come in and do what we all ask them not Do because I gained a dime.

Wow.

So I want to lose it.

Matt Benne good to see you.

Thank you so much.

Appreciate the time.

Yeah, absol Thank you And the fragile graph meter question is on Twitt If it is for that next week, we are going to look at the home grown industry that's at the cro of a couple of things called commerce and conservation And we'll have Chris Robinson wi Thank you so much for joining us and have a great week.