[Yeager] Welcome to the table for the Friday, September 19th, 2025 installment of Market Plus Arlan Suderman.

Still with us here.

I didn't mean to go low on Kansas State.

I just didn't.

But in Farmageddon country here where we're at, you and I both have friends that went over to Ireland and had a had a good time.

Are the farmers in either of those two states celebrating right now?

Is there much to celebrate in Iowa and Kansas?

Nebraska, Missouri.

[Suderman] For the most part, good yields.

There's obviously a lot of variability, but especially in Kansas where there were more rains for the plains, the there's good yields and there are dry areas too.

But overall, those are getting good.

Yields are very grateful for that.

So that's what they're celebrating.

[Yeager] But you kind of danced a little bit around it talking about the weather change here at the end.

Very dry at coming down the home stretch.

That crop was probably already made.

Or do you think this drought did have an impact on what we'll see for an overall yield?

[Suderman] You know, what was interesting is I went to the website for the Iowa Environmental Put Place and built a map by Climate Reporting District ranking rainfall from mid-August to mid-September.

And then I also went August 1st to mid-September.

And it was very similar.

Results.

And it basically showed there was an area across southern Iowa, northern Missouri, through central Illinois that was the driest on record for that period of time.

And much of the eastern Midwest was like top five, top ten, driest on record.

Then I put in average temperature and there was areas of Ohio that were top five coolest on record for that period of time.

But most all of the southern and eastern Midwest was top 30 out of the last 130 years.

Coolest.

And so, the crop still needs moisture to finish.

But it obviously needs a lot more moisture when it's 100 degrees than when it's 70 degrees.

And so, from some to some extent, the coolness slowed down.

The maturation of the crop so that it reduced its moisture requirements.

So, it still was hurt, but not near as much as it would have been had it been hotter with that dry weather.

So that's kind of a mixed blessing there.

[Yeager] You can't shake that agronomist thing, can you?

It's always there.

But I want to ask you now, another agronomy question.

This rust story.

Is this going to be something that we are going to talk about?

Next year is a cold winter.

Take care of something.

There's that.

We have that discussion about with the Screwworm.

But what does this mean moving forward for planting acres next year?

[Suderman] Oh, it certainly does have it in your management plan.

Look at your hybrid susceptibility.

Look at your treatment program.

And we see that where treatment happened in a timely manner, we got tremendous results from it.

In most cases.

And so, I understand farmers didn't want to spend more money when corn was cheap.

Not in every case, but most cases.

It certainly paid for itself this year to treat.

And so, it is something you have to look at.

But yeah, it really had a big impact.

It wasn't just rust, it was a tar spot as well.

There were several different diseases that were out there, and stock health is a real concern, particularly where they didn't treat.

So now farmers, where they didn't treat or maybe where they needed to treat twice and they only treated once, they're really worried about that stock health.

And so, they're trying to get that crop in as quickly as they can to avoid lodging.

If we get a big front come through with a lot of wind.

[Yeager] Always a concern.

And I guess let's just do Brady and Kansas.

Let's just get this final thing.

Given everything we've just talked about.

Arlen, we all want to know what do you think that final corn yield is going to be?

[Suderman] If I knew that, I'd probably be on a beach someplace.

You know, what we are seeing is the Tennessee and big crops get smaller.

And I look back at the all the way to 1993, and I found 17 years when USDA raised its yield estimate in August, and 11 of those 17 years, the yield was smaller.

Once it was the same, five times it was bigger.

Over the years, I've always said big crops get bigger and I was wrong.

They do get smaller and certainly the last five of the last six years now, I believe it is.

We have had a dry finish, which means smaller seed size, which doesn't show up in crop ratings and it doesn't show up in surveys because smaller seed size only really shows up with the combine in reduced yield.

And so, this year will be another year.

I anticipate smaller seed size.

I was asked back in early August off air by a broadcaster.

Was your gut tell you, as a former agronomist and at the time I said 182 bushels per acre, at this point, I would say, based on what I've heard, we're probably somewhere between 178 and 182.

With the really good yields and a really poor yields, it's really hard to judge where we're going to end up.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was lower than that.

Probably be surprised if it was higher than that.

But anything is possible.

I'm looking forward to our next customer survey on October 1st.

[Yeager] Depending on what you hear, will, when will the market respond to early returns, or are they just going to have to wait until that final number is released?

[Suderman] I think the corn market has responded.

I said before that August crop report that I believe that the while the average trade guess was, what, 185 something that I felt like the market was actually trading a high 180 number.

And if we didn't get anything above that, that we would close higher in a day.

The surprise was the higher acreage number, 2.4 million acres.

And we traded that that day.

And we've been higher ever since than that.

And so, I think the corn market has factored that in already.

It's just how small will yields come down and will we maintain this strong demand.

[Yeager] You answered a China question in the television program.

Gary in Wisconsin has a little different turn on this.

If China doesn't come back to buy beans, are we looking at 98 million acres, 185 bushel yield in March?

Planting intentions for corn in 26.

[Suderman] Very possibly.

If we get.

I've been saying all along, if we get a trade agreement, I expect to transfer about 3 million acres of corn to soybeans next year.

We're getting deep enough now.

There were risks of China not buying any corn as present.

If that's the case, we could see soybean prices depressed enough that it'll be hard for them to buy acres.

There is a back and forth in corn and soybean in the normal rotation of things that would argue for a little bit more soybeans next year versus corn, but soybeans have to be able to carry their end of the table.

So, we need the biofuel clarity, and we need some export business.

[Yeager] So then I'll ask you the next question, Dan, in Iowa, what are the future spreads?

Telling farmers to store more of?

Are they telling you to store more corn or beans?

And why?

[Suderman] Yeah, that's an excellent question.

We look at the spreads right now of December to July, spread for corn as we close trade.

Today was $32.33.

We look at soybeans.

It was about $0.59 going from November to July.

But then you have to throw in the basis piece of it.

And that's going to be far different in the West than what it's going to be in the East.

The other piece of the equation is this year we have a better corn crop in the southeast, so we won't be pulling as much to the south and east.

We have a better crop in the plains, so we won't be pulling that way as much.

So overall, the spreads.

You know, a year ago the spreads were telling us the crop's not there and we're seeing similar behavior this year based on all the reports and the dry finish to the season.

But we have much stronger demand this year for corn.

So, we're starting to see some firming of those spreads a little bit here in recent days because of that demand to pull that corn to the export markets on top of domestic demand.

[Yeager] So then do you get the sense, if that's the case with these spreads starting to talk, who's driving the conversation?

I mean, is that a is that an export story.

Because we keep hearing, well, we're just not going to have as much carryout.

Therefore, that's going to lead to here.

And is that what's driving it?

[Suderman] It's the demand that is trying to pull the first harvested corn crop.

When you look at our demand, look at exports, look at feed usage, look at ethanol demand.

We need over 300 million bushels per week moving through the pipeline to meet that demand.

We need to get corn down the river before the river is closed this fall.

So, there's a lot of big pull toward the Gulf.

There's a big pull to the Pacific Northwest to corn, because many of our customers in Southeast Asia are buying some of it due to the trade deals that have been reached.

Assuming the Supreme Court upholds.

And I think that's a 5050 deal right now.

On whether they do.

But there is some good purchases there.

So that's a pull on that front end trying to get that early harvested corn, being able to grab it and get it into pipeline.

[Yeager] And you mentioned moving things through the pipeline.

We're starting to see that story that we've seen now for the last 2 to 3 years is the Mississippi is low because the Ohio is low and the Mississippi and the Missouri are low.

That too, is in play.

Again.

[Suderman] It really is.

And there are some showers expected over the next 1 to 2 weeks across the Midwest.

But the soils are so dry.

That's not going to give us much runoff for river levels.

What we really need is some good soaking rains, but we don't need that for the harvest.

And so, I think what we most farmers would like, okay, let us get the crops out of the field, then give us the big rains and be able to bring the river levels up.

[Yeager] Because the farmer always get what they ask for, right?

They always ask and they always get what they want.

One last question.

This is on the economy.

Let's go back.

Bradley in Nebraska was the Fed's quarter point interest rate big enough.

They're cut.

[Suderman] Obviously everybody has their bias.

And what I'm going to look at it.

Obviously every farmer would like to have lower interest rates, particularly because we're seeing a situation now where more farmers are having to carry over balances on operating notes to the next year.

They would like to have lower interest rates.

I understand that the tone of the question sounded like for the economy from economy standpoint, M2 money supply is at a record high level.

There were a number of incentives in the tax bill that passed this summer to expand, and a lot of those incentives are available for farmers as well.

By the way.

But surveys have found that a lot of corporations have expansion plans in place, but they're not implementing them because of the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs.

So, you have M2 money supply record high levels.

You have corporations who have expansion plans, but they're holding putting those on hold until they have more clarity on tariffs, et cetera.

if suddenly we get clarity, this economy could just explode with corporate expansion, hiring people, consumer confidence comes back so consumers feel comfortable buying homes, mortgage rates this last week hit three-year lows.

They more interested in buying cars, electronics and everything.

And that can be inflationary.

So how much should the fed cut when there's that much juice already in the system.

So, from the economy standpoint I'm more conservative on the cuts.

From a farmer standpoint, they would like to have more cuts to help them out in these tough times.

[Yeager] Well, and the president would too, because I mean, that's why he has hit that drum beat several, several times.

[Suderman] What president wouldn't want.

[Yeager] Well, but this one really has been much more.

vocal about more vocal about it.

[Suderman] Yes, very much so.

[Yeager] And public.

[Suderman] Very much so.

And again, what president wouldn't want to have lower rates?

And if that causes inflation, that's the next president's problem so to speak.

But he's more obviously more vocal about everything.

[Yeager] Yeah, that's the way it is.

Good to see you, Arlen.

Thanks again for coming to see us in August.

We're going to release that soon.

So, there's a great line, by the way, that Arlan had, that I'll have to share with you.

Maybe I'll put it in the newsletter this week.

Thanks, Arlen.

Thank you.

All right.

Arlan Suderman everybody, next week we're going to talk about the Florida citrus industry and what's going on there.

And we'll have Don Roose to break down the commodity markets.

Thanks for joining us.

Have a great week.