Welcome to the table for Friday, November 21st, 2025, installment of Market Plus One Programing.

Note before we get started, we are recording this week's show on Thursday due to busy production.

So joining us again is Jeff French.

Hi.

>> Hello.

>> Okay, so we'll cover some of the things we didn't get to earlier.

We've got some more social media questions.

This one is from Gary in Wisconsin, and he's asking with harvest wrapped up early and strong carry in the market, could we see a basis jump at the end of December?

>> Oh, certainly.

I mean, we could see big basis jump.

I mean, all they have to do the USDA is lower that yield number.

And I you know, in my opinion they will lower that number.

It's you know, historically, like I said on the main show, I mean, the December report is typically they don't change anything.

They wait until January.

But I anticipate that they will make a yield change in December because they've had time.

And, you know, the November report that they released, I mean, they didn't change anything because they were out.

So, yeah, a yield or excuse me, a basis increase in December is not that far of a stretch at all.

>> Okay.

>> All right.

So Joe, in Iowa is asking how much of the Chinese soybean buy is going to Argentina and Brazil, and how much realistically will be left for the U.S.?

For U.S.

beans.

And what does this mean for my marketing and selling strategy?

>> Well, selling strategy number one, sell strength.

I mean, we just saw an 18 month in bean prices here during the last week.

You know, somebody wants your commodity.

So I always tell my clients that, you know, sell it when somebody wants it.

I mean, so we've had a good rally.

Let some bushels go.

You don't have to sell all of it, but sell strength.

I mean, that's what we like to do.

But regarding, you know, the Brazilian and Argentina, I mean, they have been the preferred choice from China here for some time.

But that was because of the trade war.

So the negotiations are going on.

They have agreed to buy 12 million metric tons this season, and then 25 million metric tons here for the next three years.

So those are significant purchases.

And, you know, in my opinion, this administration will hold their feet to the fire and require that they, fulfill their agreement.

So again, sell strength.

We had 18 month highs.

And you know, if you need to reown it on the board, look to do that because we are going into a very important part of the season and that is the South American weather, which that will really heat up here.

First quarter of next year.

>> All right, Mike in Iowa is saying on beans, I'm hearing the Chinese only bought futures instead of the actual beans on corn and beans.

The basis is not getting better on either.

Locally.

>> So yeah, that's a good question.

Regarding the futures.

You know, so to buy 12 million metric tons of bean futures would be 90,000 contracts on the board, which they certainly could have done that.

If you look at the open interest, though, I doubt they did that.

They they surely bought some and probably that was some of the reason that the board increased, you know, $1.30 a bushel since mid October.

But I have no, no way of knowing exactly the numbers that they bought.

But I would assume that they bought some to hedge that risk.

And now we are getting announcements of the actual physical purchases here.

The last couple of days.

They're being kind of trickled out And the market, you know, is kind of just, you know, not too impressed right now.

And that's why we've kind of slipped off here.

I mean beans right now are $0.45 off the highs from Tuesday.

So we've had a big pullback.

But again nothing too surprising considering the move we've had.

>> All right so Scott or excuse me James in Illinois is saying should producers be looking at marketing 26 beans at these levels.

Maybe a taste say 10%.

Or if it were you, would you stay at 0% marketed until the first part of next year to see what South America produces So yeah, I again, I have no problem selling 10% for next year.

>> We just had a nice rally.

We like to sell strength and again we just saw a nice move.

We got to 18 month highs in beans.

I mean that's something to talk about You know you look at acres next year.

So we just got our first estimate here from a private analyst.

Next year beans are expected.

And this is in the U.S.

You know they're expecting beans to be at 84 million acres.

Corn down to 95 million acres for 26.

That compares to 98 million acres of corn this year and 80 million acres of beans.

So we're obviously seeing next year to be in a little bit more heavy beans.

But, you know, you know, to go back to the question, sell a little bit into the strength, you know, if Brazil and South America, if they grow a good crop, you know, this bean price is going to have a difficult time rallying.

I mean, we are going to have a lot of beans to deal with, but demand has been good.

So yeah, I just continue to sell strength.

And you know, that's what we got to look for.

I mean, hopefully the Chinese, they're in the mode of of buying the dips because we just had a really good dip.

And we'll just have to see here in the weeks to come, if they come to the market.

>> Okay.

>> So I was talking to my dad this week and he said that for the first time in a long time, he sold all of his crops straight out of the field.

Are you seeing other farmers doing that because they need the cash?

>> Well, number one reason to sell, sell grain is to get the money.

I mean, that's the number one reason.

The number two reason is they ran out of storage on farm.

So, yeah, I mean, it just, you know, it varies year to year, but, you know, this year, obviously with prices and with inputs, there are many farmers that are needing needing cash, especially for next year.

So they are selling right out of the field.

You know, seasonally.

And you look at historically, I mean, typically you make your high in the summer sometime and then, you know, you make your low into the fall when you're harvesting, when everybody's selling.

So, you know, if you are you have that strategy.

That's fine.

But we like to re-own that on paper just in case.

In the next 5 or 6 months, if prices do have a rally because of, you know, a South American weather event that you can partake in that rally if prices continue to move higher.

>> So you said earlier in the show, the main show, that the old kind of saying that the the bears get Thanksgiving, right.

Okay.

And the Bulls get Christmas.

Do you think that's going to hold true this year?

>> It feels like it.

I mean, if you look the way we close this week, the charts right now looks like they're pointing a little bit lower.

And then seasonally, I mean, if you look at the beans, I mean, there's a strong seasonal for beans to rally right into the end of the year.

So that wouldn't surprise me one bit at all.

You know, this corn market has been awfully rangebound.

I mean, it's been rangebound since July.

I mean, we went up to 440 there on the report day.

We haven't been to that price since July 3rd.

Now, we've backed off here a little bit, but I think this this core market's got a bottom in that.

415 420 area.

I don't see it going much below that.

But then all eyes on trade here moving into the end of the year.

>> Okay.

>> So what about let's talk about input costs fertilizers.

Do you think that farmers should be waiting over the winter to lock in any of their prices or their needs?

>> You know, it's you know, they're waiting because they're hoping that the prices go lower, move lower.

Well, that hasn't been the smart strategy right now because prices have continued to move higher.

So, you know, it's going to depend a lot on the fall weather looking here.

I mean, it's been awfully dry.

It's been awfully good to get the anhydrous down.

You know, the problem with, you know, if you wait till spring.

I mean, if we have a wet spring, you might not be able to get it down.

But, you know.

Yes, definitely some tough choices because, you know, you look at the margins.

I mean, they are extremely tight if not in the red here for next year, depending on your bushels.

>> Okay.

>> Last question.

If you had to pick a commodity this coming week, which one would it be For strength or what?

>> Yes.

>> I'll go out.

I mean, I think the cattle.

I mean, we've seen such a massive sell off in the cattle and we're coming on to some big psychological numbers that I think that, you know, it might not hold forever, but I do think we hold them here for a little bit.

And I would look at the cattle to maybe look for a little bit of a rebound here next week.

>> Okay.

>> Jeff, thank you so much.

Have a happy Thanksgiving.

>> Happy Thanksgiving.

Thank you.

>> All right.

Next week commodity and economic analysis with Chris Robinson and Ernie Goss.

Thanks for joining us and have a great week.