Welcome in.

This is the Friday, July seven, installment of Market plus.

Joining us, again, Kristi Van Ah if I get it pronounced right.

Yes.

Yes.

Good thing we had practice, righ We had you on an m Tom podcast a while ago.

You told me the story of your of of you.

Yep Tell this audience.

Yes.

So really what it comes down to my grandpa started the business.

He had always worked in the elev business.

My dad ended up taking it over a I run it with my brother in law, He's married to my older sister and we've been running it togeth for quite some time.

My dad is fully retired.

He does still follow the market, we get to have those chats all t And he's kind of our person that we like to send out on a li crop tours to kind of scope up e and let us know how things are.

But Jim and myself run together with our team.

Does he give opinions still?

He Does he get paid for those opini or are they free?

He gets paid in love from his grandchildren.

There yo There you go.

You are based in the town of Ale Minnesota, is that right?

Yes.

How well do you know Alexandria?

I if I show you this, look to yo There's going to be a monitor.

Josh is going to roll this video You are going to see something.

What is that.

Big Oly!

What is big Olys story?

Okay, so Big Oly, actually, when I grew up, he was in the middle of the main intersection in town So you actually had to drive aro to get anywhere.

So Alexandria, they say that it' the birthplace of America.

They actually say that's where w settlement come from, Vikings.

And so this is kind of the big s to let people know.

Sometimes people dress them up, like to take pictures in front o Does everybody when they come to I have to get a picture there?

I think so.

Oh, yeah, it's it's kind of the thing to do.

All right.

Well, let's get back to what we you do.

You made the drive down.

So you talked a little bit earli in the show about what you saw.

Well, we'll start with Bradley in Nebr who's had a wild couple of weeks where he's at.

He said, “Last summer it looked the soybeans were building some carry into market prices.

He says thats no longer the case.

What happene Yeah, I think this is a great qu So when we started building this and the soybeans, you were really looking at a sit where the market felt comfortabl that you were probably you're on a 300 million bushel c that is a comfortable carry out.

Like you can feel okay about tha And I think you start to kind of that carry in.

Typically we end up seeing a lim when China starts to step in and and we have not seen China step And so I think that was also tha justification for the carry in t And then we really took this mar and we started to talk about yield reductions.

And right there you were like, okay, we're not a We might be below that.

And then we got to June 30th and you come in here with this v very low acre number.

I mean, when I saw that acre num corn acre number, I'm like, that Where's the correction?

Like I thought for sure.

And so I think now you're coming in here and saying this is going to be a tight situ I'm not so sure you can justify having to carry in the market.

And if we see China start to ste and start buying our product, I think you're even going to see that narrow up even more.

And forgive me here is it is a B that's holding on to their corn and not selling it on the market I mean, would they do the same t with their beans and not sell?

I think you could maybe see that But I also think that they had s a big crop that there's a lot to Right.

So you're talking about the last they've had this poor crop and they could justify holding s but now they're coming in and ha all those extra bushels that I t there's enough to sell to keep C from the US for the time being.

All right.

Let's go to Gary in W He wants to talk corn.

“Will we see an overly large cor drop by USDA because of drought in areas like that had large acre increases?

” Yeah, this is going to be the wi for the July 12th report next we And I think this is what the mar to really, really zone in and fo because we don't have a situatio where we can come back and say, this is kind of similar to these So I did some digging to try and if we could correlate to a yield conditions, crop conditions are you can take them for what they right?

They don't always relate back to But when you look at it, we really only have a few years that we had poorer conditions.

One is 2012, but the other one i we had a couple of years where very poor, poor crop conditions were more.

I don't know if you're really going to see us make the very, very large ones right off the bat.

I think they're justified to com and step down to like that 175 a And then I think from there you're waiting a little bit more what kind of crop conditions do you have moving forward and then what can we physically start to see h And I think it's more of that August report that you c them make the bold move versus the dry July report.

We don't have a backyard itis question this week.

But you know, they exist.

Certain areas have caught rain.

Others have not.

Yep.

The trade believes, correct me i I'm wrong, that everybody's rece Is that right?

I think to a degree I mean you k there's some pockets but you nee like where those pockets are rig one of those pockets is unfortunately where I'm from.

So you take anywhere from North down through central Minnesota to southeastern Minnesota, over into parts of Wisconsin, we saw those drier areas in Illi We saw the drier areas around Om Those places got rain.

We haven't gotten in so much.

So, I mean, when you look at kin a whole where you've gotten thos I think that they've been benefi for some very, very large areas.

So the market wants to feel that But more or less, I think that a you have rain, even if you did t really dry pattern, it brings some bulls out of the So what if you are in one of tho that you mentioned?

You know, I look at Nebraska and I just see a whole lot of da on the drought map.

So if you're in that area and you don't have a crop, it looks like as we sit here ton what do you do?

Yeah.

So I think there's some to that you can use.

I mean, I first you you can look at it and say, Hey, I feel comfortable saying I'm at least going to have this perc and you work with that on your c side of things.

And then from there you can supp with futures options, anything l But you have to just know your d risk and know where your break e And I think crop insurance also has to play a big role into That's the difference from this versus next year is that we have crop insurance price penciled in I think this is one of those yea that if your crop is really, rea you've got to rely on that to a Let's get to wheat and a little bit of corn again.

Adam in North Dakota wants to kn does the global wheat supply loo Will dryness and Canada matter?

Can wheat hold up if corn stays sub- $5?

” Yeah.

So I think when you look at kind and you look at those drier area you're exactly right.

You're coming up and you're hitt of northern North Dakota and then into Canada.

So you you have those pockets.

We know carry out is tight.

We know that it's going to fluct off of the corn price to a degre But when everything shakes out, we need to have some form of dem start to show up for this market because if we just don't have it it doesn't matter what our suppl and we just haven't seen that ha So if we could see that kind of pick up the pace, but as of now, we're just really overpriced.

When you look at the market.

If nobody wants those terrible c pitchers, nobody's going to buy That's exactly that is a supply story in sports, too.

But that's for another Market Pl Aaron, in Iowa has a cattle question for you, K “Cattle have struggled to chew through r Can we push to new highs or will exhaustion and seasonali pull us down to Q4?

” This, like my worst nightmare is, is w ask you the price movement, because I feel like then you get to sit back and you have to have people say, remember when you said that?

But I do feel like in general.

I told you, you can stick your neck out as far as you want.

I feel like in general, cattle markets are very supportive.

I think they are due for a technical pullback.

I think this is justified and I like to say it.

It's always really nice to shake Right.

Get the people out that don't really want to be a p But I've been riding the ride and let them come out, Let some new buyers come in, get some healthier length in the situation.

But I do think that you can see these markets continue to be sup after a liquidation phase.

And what would be an appearance to market without a. Phil in Ontario, Canada question Welcome for your first Phil question.

Phil, Thank you.

“Dec corn has bounced up from it closes and November soybeans met resistance at $14.

What is the road ahead through J Do the trading algorithms have the corn crop ma Does corn drag soybeans down in the dry, wet August rain storyli So let's peel that.

There's multiple layers in that And I'll start with, you know, the yield case.

So when you say do they have it I think that people have started pencil in.

They're really they're taking the really disastrous yield off And who knows if that's still in line or not.

We're not going to know for a li But I feel like those people that really started to talk abou yield declines have stopped talk about that as much.

So I think you can pull it back they're penciling in yield decli but they've backed off of it to saying that we have enough areas to try and support this.

We also know that high acres makes it hard to get a high yiel And so you can play that factor that you're going to justify a y decrease when you move and say s hitting that $14 mark.

That was a very stiff resistance to $14 has been that level that's really stopped the beans.

I think you saw the sellers come I think you saw them want to be as soon as you saw the charts the way they were, I thought may see $13.40 hold to a degree.

We broke that here at the end of $13 is at next psychological lev And I think given the numbers we have so far you really should see some suppo July 12th is going to be that re that huge number that's going to how we trade for the next few we And that's going to be the bigge But what if USDA does what they've done in so many rep and not given you anything to ch July 12th?

Yeah, that's a big reality that they could come in here and and it would be absolutely disas for corn if they came in here and didn't change yield because they acre number we're going to and we know how high that yield and we feel the market feels in that demand is overstated.

So even if they just leave deman as is and keep with that trend line yields on the acre nu that is going to be such an ugly to be looking at for a corn mark So we're hoping that they don't do that.

Right.

And I think if if you don't see yield decline, that's where you those support levels of that for not hold.

And I think that's where you cou But for the time being, I think the market feels comfort enough that we have some time th as long as we start to see the y declines should hold for the tim All right.

We're going to close with one last question, Robert in Iow And this one is I have had this discussion with a couple of peop every year.

“I missed some early sales for f Is this a store and ignore year until the government reduces yie due to dry weather?

” Yeah.

This is always such a tough question, right?

Be I'm not a believer in store and ignore like I'm a believer i and I'm a believer of sticking t And so it's really hard for me to say that.

I think what you really do is you break down what do you need to go at harves Focus on that and have that be y your first really focus point is okay, I feel like I need this am of bushels going in that at harv I need to make sure I do something with that before and then I can work on the rest And so I feel like corn, as long as we can start to get t decline and it's shown some really good support to hold this can get back up to anywhere from that $5.35 to $5.70 area.

And around that area is where I would start to make thos And I've been pushed back on tha because you have people say, hey you're selling below crop insura That's a very real reality.

But I also don't want to have people selling much lower.

And so I think you take that as an opportunity.

If we keep going higher, you can the rest of the crop to sell.

So I guess I'll ask, do you make any decisions before Wednes on the 12th, if you're in that s If I haven't sold much.

If we for some reason came out o started off strong and got to $5 like $5.50, I would definitely be looking at a point underneath that market to just say, Hey, I'm not puttin all my eggs in one basket with U I'm not going to completely put my crops faith in here.

And so I'm going to put a floor myself, get through that report, and then hopefully we can see some better trade.

And we also got through Market P We did.

This is great.

This is fantastic.

Thank you.

Yes.

Thank you.

All went well.

Yes, you did very good.

Kristi.

Thank you so much.

Kristi Van Ahn Kjeseth.

And thank you so much.

Next week, we look at one stop s for the overall health of your o and we'll have the commodity market analysis of Sue Martin.

Thanks for joining us and have a great week.