[Yeager] Welcome back to the table for the Friday, October 3rd, 2025 installment of Market Plus.

Still with us here Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth, Ted Seifried and Karen Braun.

All right, Karen, you appeared with us on a MtoM Roadshow in LeClaire.

You know, Ted, you've met Kristi.

How'd it go here today?

[Braun] I think it went well.

I mean, I'm having fun.

We're having really good conversations.

It's going by quickly.

[Yeager] Okay.

Yeah, that's -- I was going to ask -- did it go as fast as you thought it would go?

[Braun] It went about as expected.

[Yeager] Okay.

So, you now work at the same firm with Ted, but you used to be at Reuters.

[Braun] Yes.

[Yeager] You've been -- how do you describe your career path to here?

[Braun] Well, I started in meteorology.

That was what my degrees are in.

And then I started in the commodity industry, basically delivering weather data to energy clients.

And during that time, I got hooked up with the agriculture group in our same company that was doing yield forecasting.

And I got on with them in 2012, I guess it was.

And I didn't know anything really about, you know, anything I do now.

And so, but then after a few years there, I moved over to the editorial side, and I spent almost ten years as the Reuters AG columnist.

So pretty much now, and I'm doing a lot of that same stuff now with Zaner Group.

I've launched my own newsletter, and what this allows me to do is just really customize the information, tailor it to really the audience, which you can't do as much in a news agency.

There's more restrictions, but really just elevate my offering.

Put context behind the news, all my charts, all my data, just really break it down for people.

The markets are complex and I'm trying to trying to help with that.

[Yeager] They are complex.

We've got some complex issues in this.

First one's for Ted.

This one is Alan in Illinois.

And Ted, this is a story he wants to know was soybeans was the market low in soybeans?

September 30th, when managers of short funds cashed out?

[Seifried] First of all, hi, Alan.

And second of all, yeah, I don't know.

We'll have to see again.

This is a time of year where the debate continues to rage on what the yield is going to be.

And this year in particular, with the driest August that we had since 2013.

We really don't know.

And we're not going to see the USDA update.

And is China going to come back in?

I mean, there's so much unknown and uncertainty for the soybean market that trying to predict whether the low has been in or not or the low is in at this point or not is really, really difficult.

I think you got to take this day by day.

I think you got to watch these charts and watch the price action day by day, try to gather as much information as you possibly can.

That's not going to be from the USDA and go for there.

You got to say that the way we finished this week, I mean, aside, Friday was a little bit of a of a letdown.

But I mean, look, that big reversal higher that we had and then the follow through that we had on Thursday, that all looks good on the chart for now, but we're going to have to maintain some strength, at least trade sideways into early next week.

Otherwise, that harvest pressure comes in and those lows all of a sudden come under fire again.

[Yeager] And if we know Alan, he'll share charts with us and show us.

[Seifried] Yes, he will.

[Yeager] That's one thing that he does.

All right, Karen, there's part of this question you can answer, and part of it might have Kristi answer.

This first part is Gary in Wisconsin.

If there is no purchase agreement for soybeans between the U.S.

and China by the middle of November, will we see sub $9 beans?

Kristi.

Answer the could we see sub $9 beans first?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah.

So, I think that's the big question.

Is that the market that a big chunk of that reversal Ted was talking about was strictly off the fact that President Trump said he's going to go to China and talk about soybeans.

So, we've been on this.

This is not the first rodeo of this situation.

And so, what we need to focus on is the fact that up until this point, the conversation between the two of them has seemed like the long haul, like that.

We'll touch base at the end of the year, maybe next year we'll have a visit together.

So, this does not seem like they're in a rush to get something done.

So, I'm trying not to get your hopes up right.

Don't get ahead of yourself.

If you come out of this meeting and they just say, hey, we talked.

It was a good conversation.

We're going to address something down the road.

I think that's very detrimental of soybeans.

And then I find 972 the next support line.

915 and if we don't hold 915, we've proven that you could see eights in a trade war.

However, this year we we're in a much different situation.

We have crush.

And so, I do think that you could stabilize this market, but I would say that my levels are 972 and 915.

Before we talk about.

[Seifried] By the way, really quick, I know we're going to Karen, but when you have descent and Trump announcing that there's going to be stimulus or bailouts or aid to soybean farmers in particular, doesn't make you feel all warm and fuzzy that he intends to go out there and get a deal right away.

Right?

I mean, the chances of a deal I know the market was very excited about that midweek this week, but the chances of getting a deal four weeks from now when two days later, you're talking about adding aid.

I don't know.

It doesn't sound great to me.

[Yeager] Do you have warm and fuzzy on anything of this?

[Braun] Yeah.

No, I mean, that was exactly my thought is, you know, if we are going to talk about soybeans in four weeks, why do we need to roll out aid, you know, and so, so, you know, I said earlier that by this time China usually books about 40% of their annual U.S.

soybean needs.

Well, by the end of October, that number comes closer to 60%.

So, either way, here, you're definitely missing the normal window.

Now, I think that your soybean exports, the U.S.

soybean exports will be, you know, not seasonal like we're used to seeing.

So, either way you're dealing with something just counter seasonal at this point.

And so, you could have China come in after November and buy some soybeans.

You know, just not the normal time.

[Yeager] We didn't even talk about Argentina.

That that may.

have.

Did that complicate matters in this story beyond what we were expected?

I mean, we knew the relationship with China wasn't good.

That certainly didn't seem to help.

[Braun] Well, I think that the fact that we were about to bail out their government, you know, give them the $20 billion to generate revenue that just looked really, really bad at that time.

And so, you know, unfortunately, Argentina sold the soybeans that the U.S.

could have sold.

You know, Brazil still humming.

And so, you know that it's definitely another slap in the face I think just to a soybean market that's really been just kind of beaten down by this whole trade issue.

[Yeager] All right.

[Seifried] Yeah.

Port stocks in China right now are at five year high five-year highs.

And that was before the Argentinian sales, soybean sales raw soybean sales to China.

It might help our crush out.

But I mean it looks like China's going to be pretty stocked with beans through November into December.

And then then you've got Brazil getting ready to harvest their first season soybeans.

So yeah.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Can you talk about crush?

I mean, crush has been fantastic for the U.S.

You can see how great it's been crushed is not solve the producers problem that has to deliver soybeans at harvest like you're hurting the producer that needs to move these beans at harvest because they can't go to a crush facility.

They can only take so much at one time.

And so now you're saying that's the main issue.

And I think that's where you're going to need that aid is to help on the basis side of things.

[Seifried] That crush only expands at a certain pace in the climate that we have right now, where Crushers, I think, would really love to really increase their capacity quickly, but they look at a potential for a trade deal.

They look at if we go back to business with usual with China, then all of a sudden we're back into competition of getting our feedstocks to, to, to do the crush.

So, in that scenario, they're reluctant to really expand as fast as they otherwise would, maybe want to.

And that's tough.

Like I think there should be some sort of program to give crushers more incentive to expand capacity faster.

I think longer term, what we really need to do is take the value add here in this country, we need to be the main crushers of the world, push Argentina and Brazil out of business, push Argentina back to being a raw soybean exporter.

And if they want to take care of China's needs, that's fine.

But we need to provide the value add here.

Be the meal.

Exporters of the world trade missions to other countries, and incentive for crushers to do that.

[Yeager] But Paul in Minnesota, Ted is asking you, how many years has China been investing in infrastructure in South America for their purchases?

The investment has been happening there, which is going to make that what you're just saying much harder to overcome.

[Seifried] That is a fantastic question, Paul.

And Paul both Paul's right.

Yes.

okay.

So that's very true.

However, Argentina has a very unstable currency.

Argentina has a very unstable government.

We currently like their government, which is why we were willing to offer that 20 billion credit swap in order to stabilize their currency in front of their midterm elections.

However, from a business perspective, they're kind of easy pickings.

Like we can pretty easily take Argentina to task and take away from their market share and push them back into raw soybean exporters, even though that infrastructure is in place.

That's my opinion.

[Yeager] Do you agree with that?

[Braun]You know what?

I don't know, because it seems to be really difficult to get things done in this country.

I mean, we've been talking about, you know, 45 Z the biofuel thing since 2021 now.

And so, when I look at, you know, last year in 24, 25, the U.S.

sent about 830 million bushels of soybeans to China, 830 million since the first trade war.

We've expanded crush by about a little over 400 million bushels.

So, you're not expanding.

I mean, you can't even cover in that seven years' time.

You know, the chunk that you are losing only last year from China.

I mean, that's the difference.

So, I think Kristi mentioned it too, that you cannot crush your way out of the gap that China leaves here.

[Seifried] Yeah.

Not currently.

We don't have the capacity.

And for the record, I didn't say it'd be easy, but I -- [Braun] But it is definitely a more long-term opportunity.

[Seifried] And honestly that's where we should be focused on.

I just don't think the powers that be that make these rules really understand.

[Braun] But what happens to users in the meantime?

What happens to producers that need to plant a crop in 2016?

That's kind of.

Yeah.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] And you're also asking, like you said, you're asking the crush facility to put a lot of risk on the table.

You talk to a producer right now, none of them want to plant beans again.

Like, you know, even though statistically you look at the balance sheet and you're like over 98 million acres of corn planted, you should see a rotation back to seeing more soybeans planted.

You talk to a producer.

They don't want to -- they don't want to change the situation.

They don't like beans.

[Yeager] Maybe they wanted - [Seifried] Ratio is not really suggesting much change either.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Why would you?

[Yeager] Maybe they want to do another crop.

Karen, here's your question.

Yeah.

This is let's go.

Joel in Oklahoma wants to know is there any foreseeable path to start trading or tracking other commodities like Milo, to give farmers other avenues besides corn, cotton, soybeans and wheat?

[Braun] Well, I don't know.

Joel is OSU or an OU fan, but hopefully if he's an OU fan, I'm very happy with that because that is one of my alma maters.

But you talk about Milo and Cotton and, soybeans are really the main event here with the trade issues with China, right?

But you have to also look at cotton trade to China, sorghum, Milo, trade to China.

And you know, we grow the Milo here in the U.S.

basically to export to China.

Last year they hardly bought any.

The cotton sales were multi year lows.

And so, and they're not in here this year.

They're hardly in here.

You know in the new year to take milo and cotton.

And so that actually when you do the numbers that actually looks worse than the soybean one does relatively speaking.

But the soybeans are just such a large percentage of the total that that's obviously just the main focus.

[Yeager] Which was heightened a couple of weeks ago in Arkansas.

That kind of brought that issue to the table because of some of the crops that they're growing there.

And those are the farmers having that discussion.

[Braun] Yeah.

[Yeager] Real quick.

Do you see other states having similar issues that have products that are much more dependent on trade?

[Braun] That's a good question.

I don't think that there's going to be I don't think that there's really any that are going to be as important as cotton and milo, soybeans, corn, wheat.

But, you know, farmers are out there planting their next wheat crop right now.

And I've, you know, heard that people are not super excited about planting wheat.

Why would they be?

We just talked about how.

[Yeager] That's Matt Wisconsin wanted to know, is there any reason to plant wheat?

And you're saying no.

[Braun] But, you know, I mean, we do obviously keep planting wheat every year.

You know, it is part of some people's rotation.

But, you know, actually, I do have a guy that I talk to every week in Kansas, and they have had a terribly wet fall.

And so, he's going to lose about he thinks about a quarter of his wheat acres.

He's not going to plant now that's going to go to row crops in the spring, which, you know, he's got corn, soybeans, Milo and all the stuff that we're talking about now, having a problem finding a home for.

So, it just kind of transfers the problem from the winter crop to the spring crop, potentially.

[Yeager] All right, Kristi, come on, finish us something with positive.

Got anything?

[LAUGHTER] [Yeager] Oh, Ted, you got anything?

[Seifried] I was going to say that that domestic Milo balance sheet is going to cut into corn feed demand so no.

[LAUGHTER] [Seifried] No, you know what I will say.

Look, if something were to happen, soybeans could have an incredibly tight balance sheet.

Like we focus on the negativity in soybeans, right.

And lack of China or whatever.

But who knows?

Maybe something happens in China does by 2020, 5 million metric tons of soybeans and all of a sudden we say, oh, but the yield is only a 50.5, and now we're at 12 0-million-bushel carryover, and there could be $2 upside potential in soybeans.

So, look, anything can happen, right?

I mean, we're trying to predict the future based on what we know now, which is even less now that the government shut down.

But there can be big bullish surprises out there waiting for us that we just don't see right now.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] China can't buy a massive amount of soybeans from us.

We don't have room for that.

So, we really just need them to buy a little bit, you know, buy some.

[Braun] Well, the math does suggest that when you when you break down all the numbers, the math does suggest that Brazil and Argentina cannot fully cover China's needs.

I mean, people don't talk about this enough, but Brazil has other customers.

And, you know, they China's their biggest market, but not their only market.

[Yeager] There, see, we finished all of it.

Karen Braun, thank you so very much, Kristi, good to see you.

Ted, as always, thank you.

[Seifried] Thanks.

[Yeager] Great to see you.

Thank you everybody.

Thanks for following along on this panel.

And next week we are going to look at how some new farmers are getting some insight on navigating the business of producing food.

And Shawn Hackett will be here.

Have a great week.

We'll see you next time.