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♪♪ >>> Coming up on "Market To Market" -- Following a two-year absence, the pork industry gathers to focus on issues.

A look at the impact of new policies on western stakeholders.

>> And, you know -- >> And market analysis with Sue Martin, next.

>>> What's the most complex industry on earth?

It's not genetics or meteorology or logistics.

It's a business that involves them all.

It's farming.

Thank you, farmers, from pioneer.

>>> Tomorrow, for over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow.

Trust in tomorrow.

Information is available from a Grinnell mutual agent today.

>>> This is the Friday, June 11th edition of "Market To Market."

The weekly journal of rural America.

Hello.

I'm Paul Yeager.

Certain years evoke memories.

1929 in the stock market crash.

1941 and entering World War II, and 2020 with a global pandemic.

When you bring up 2008, though, the comparisons are tied to the great recession.

The consumer price index ticked up 0.6% in MAP but the headline was the 5% surge year over year.

The highest leap in 13 years.

Consumers are hungry for goods and services but a shortage of components is keeping the main course at bay.

When the volatile core items like food and energy are stripped out, the CPI moved higher by 0.7 a a percent.

Trade deficit narrowed by 8% as a KROVerring global economy increased demand for American-made goods.

Now, domestic-grown pork headed for export helps that side of the ledger, but the amount of product ready for shipping isn't out.

Lower line speeds could return following a judge's rooming to reverse a request for an increase in speed.

The issue of line speeds along with trade were just two of the big topics discussed with week in a homecoming of sorts in Iowa.

Peter Tubbs reports.

>> Reporter: The world pork Expo returned to Des Moines, Iowa after a two-year hiatus with a list of challenges facing the pork industry that remains long.

>> High hog market.

We have strong U.S. domestic demand.

We've got strong export markets now.

It's not all roses.

Higher grain costs pushing up feed costs that's 70% of production.

Still have to mind our Ps and Qs on our spend.

>> Reporter: China continues to be the largest export market for American pork, consuming 28% of the 7 billion pounds the U.S. exports each year, the industry is searching for increases in smaller markets to diversify the portfolio.

>> We have to go after knows small wins and those small countries all the way from Jamaica to our Asian-Pacific region.

>> We'd like to go back to a more expansionist trade agenda in the United States that wasn't really the standard operating procedure of the last administration.

It isn't certainly in the early part of this new administration.

Very important to us, but, you know, you got to take what you can get, right?

We've were loved trade promotion authority to be renewed.

We would love the U.S. back in CTPPT, love the punitive tariffs in China to come off.

Right?

And we're making our views known to the administration, the members of congress on those things, but really attainable and where can we work collegiately and positively with this administration?

>> Reporter: While expanding export markets will continue to support prices the American consumer rediscovered the joy of cooking at home.

>> The only good thing about Covid is consumers stayed home and had to buy meat in the store.

I know the national pork world was overwhelmed almost with requests for recipes, because, guess what?

People had to learn how to cook again, and suddenly they found out that it really isn't that difficult, and they can make pork tasty and nutritious for their families.

>> Reporter: At the economy of households is improving clouds are on the industry horizon.

Producers worried about new production standards that will have to be met to comply with California's proposition 12, which goes into effect in January 2022.

NPPC officials believe adhering to prop 12 will be detrimental to U.S. pork producers.

>> I don't like it.

I don't like production practices that aren't based on sound science, that aren't based on what farmers know about great animal care, and great production, and efficiency and sustainability and prop 12 takes us backwards in all of those areas.

>> Reporter: The Specter of possible domestic disease outbreaks, like African swine fever, has the medical side of a national organization laying out its plans.

>> You know, the biggest questions we get from farmers is, if it hits, what are the rules going to be for my -- my farm?

Am I going to be able to have feed delivered?

Am I going to be ale to buy semen.

>> Reporter: Despite the challenges, return of the expo helped the industry reconnect.

>> I have had so many people say, thanks for having this.

We needed to see each other.

I would, in one word, describe it as joy.

>> Reporter: For "Market To Market," I'm Peter Tubbs.

>>> TC energy formerly known at trans Canada pulled the plug on the keystone pipeline after Canadian officials failed to persuade President Biden to reverse his cancellation of the penalty.

The long delayed project to transport crude from the oil fields of Canada to Nebraska.

Now, Biden cited environmental concerns as reason for stopping the project on his first day in office.

The last three presidents have been involved in keystone along with another debate, and almost the same region.

President Obama made the first move in a debate that has a generation's-long cultural past in the west.

Josh Bittner reports in our cover story.

>> Reporter: On his way out of office, president Barack Obama proclaimed 1.35 million acres in southeastern Utah a national monument.

Bears ears named for distinctive twin beauts towering over the landscape the first collaborated with coalition of various native American.

Archeologists hailed the move for protecting natural sites, but President Trump shrank bears ears by 85% one year later splitting the monument into two none contiguous sites.

Saying former land opened for fossil fuel and mineral development.

>> Modifying the bears ears national monument.

>> Reporter: Trump's action drew the ire of local travel constituents who considered the area sacred.

A handful of lawsuits alleging presidential overreach spun up and were consolidated into one case by a federal judge, but judicial backlog and Coronavirus kept the case in limbo.

>> So help me God.

>> Reporter: Pop upon taking office, President Biden reviews THID and a district court granted a stay.

>> The constitution of the United States -- >> Reporter: A recommendation from interior secretary Deb Holland on bears ears is forthcoming but the issue is divisive in Utah.

>> This ping upon back and forth between maybe a conservative president and liberal president and going back and forth is not good for the land.

The land should no the be a political football.

>> Reporter: Direct herb of a grassroots organization founded in 2010 to support regional public land use.

Based in bluff, Utah, the group's bears airs education center helps enlighten tourists drawn to a massive county larger than a handful of New England states combined.

Ewing describes San Juan as the most archaeologically rich county in the U.S. >> People aren't used to just walking up to a cliff dwelling, walking up to a 2,000-year-old pictograph.

They need to know how to behave in those areas.

Archaeological sites are easily damaged and can't be re-created.

>> This is the edge.

We run all the way up this canyon.

>> Everything inside of these rims is part of the monument.

>> Reporter: The vastness of San Juan county is one reason ranchers Tyler and Sean breathed a sigh of relief upon Trump's rollback.

The brothers run 300 head of cattle on mountain and desert allotments within Obama's previous proclamation area.

>> These are ruins and all over San Juan county.

There are thousands of them.

Put it in perspective, one acre is 210 feet by 210 feet square, which with more than, would more than protect that area or that site, and if there were 100,000 of them that would be 100,000 acres.

He wanted to take 13 times that, which is 1.3 million acres.

In our opinion, that's overkill, you know?

It takes in a lot of area that doesn't have a lot of bearing on it.

>> Reporter: Over half of Utah's iconic landscapes already fall under federal oversight and they say adding to the management backlog is unsustainable.

>> I think the fear of a lot of local people is that it will change the way it is.

>> Reporter: Some locals have gotten to work developing the area to capture increased tourist dollars.

Jared Barrett built a resort and spa in bluff.

He's all for protecting the area, but echoes local sentiments wary of overexposure.

The expedition part of this focusing on experiences.

>> World-class scenery.

I've been to Egypt, incredible historic sites.

The hard to look at the pyramids and not be freakin' amazed, but I stand at some of the places that we have here and I'm equally amazed.

If the floodgates did open and you got like Walmart lines HOEDing out to some of these ruins, the sanctity and sacredness of it, you would lose it.

>> Reporter: It might be a double-edged sword to President Biden's budget allocation under 2020's great American outdoors act for conservation funds nationwide.

>> We have counters out there, trail counters, and we've seen enough intake and visitation.

>> Reporter: Over 20 million acres of Utah's public lands fall under the purview of management.

Overseeing anything from motorized activities to huntingic hiking or administers grazing permits.

>> A big advocate of multiple use.

A great principle for the American public allowing us to all play in the same sandbox essentially.

>> Reporter: Gary Torrez is field manager for the BLM.

Based out of the agency's local Monticello office and says no matter what presidents decide, BLM has a knack for planning and working with a diverse range of collaborators.

>> We need to be respectful of each other's activities and we need to manage those resources so that they're here for my grandchildren and my great-grandchildren and I think that's the beauty of multiple use and sustained, we're trying to do things that make sense now and for the future.

>> Reporter: For "Market To Market," I'm Josh Bittner.

>>> Next, the "Market To Market" report.

>> A rain can be a welcome relief to push a crop along but were wash the market of gains following government reports for the week, July wheat lost 7 cents and nearby corn contract added two pennies.

Bean poles hanging around in November as the weather situation worsens, and the July contract dropped 75 cents.

July meal shed 12.90 per ton.

December cotton rose by 2.04 per 100 weight.

The dairy parlor, July classed 3 mil, weakened by 40 cents.

A mixed week in the livestock sector, August cattle improved $1.95.

August feeders expanded $1.25.

And the July lean hog contract declined 62 cents.

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index added 46 ticks.

July crude oil added $1.24 per barrel and gold decreased and Goldman-Sachs increased more than ten points to finish at 5.30.45.

Now here to provide insight is market analyst Sue Martin.

Hello, Sue.

>> Reporter: Hello there, Paul.

>> So we can talk weather.

We can talk government reports, talk China, just like always, but the weather market in wheat has really kind of split the contracts.

Minneapolis wheat contract had a good week, and then it was pretty weak.

I mean, the rains are coming in certain spots that we hadn't expected.

It had been dry.

Why is weather so much a factor right now in this wheat market?

>> For one thing, a lot of times when you're so moist in Kansas, Oklahoma, in the hard wheat winter week dry in the northern plains, but the Canadian prairies have been very dry.

In almost a four-year drought, and so they were so dry and the northern plains were extremely dry.

It was thought that we'd lose some hard red spring -- not hard red spring, but, yeah.

Hard red spring wheat.

>> Yeah.

>> And at the expense move over to soybeans, and then we started to see some rains come across the northern portion of Canadian prairies.

Then we caught a second shift of that here this week, and, again, even you know, coming into Friday, saw rains move across the Dakotas into -- even made it in to almost Minnesota.

So consequently, that really worked over the Minneapolis wheat, because, remember, it was setting new contract highs for the year on going into the government report.

Now, the government report didn't really give us -- Minneapolis, wheat, yes, friendly, maybe towards that, but the report to this week, the supply demand report didn't really give us anything all that much to write home about.

Especially globally.

And then you have Russia talking about their hard red spring wheat areas might be still a little on the dry side.

But they I-cared up amount 67 production they thought they would have.

>> In a position as a producer in either of of these spots you're talking about what are you doing?

The same thing?

Is it a different strategy in each area.

>> I think in the wheat, in the hard red winter wheat areas and soft red, I would be prone -- you know, we're going into harvest time, and's, you know, the harvest because of the moisture, the hard red winter wheat matured a little slower.

So it's making like in areas of custom cutters, they're going to be a little delayed making it north when they normally should be.

And so I think that, that will start to pick up a little bit of support under the market.

I have been a proponent of this being a counterseasonal year rally.

Maybe that doesn't happen, but I -- I think the jury's still out on that one.

Would I tell producers to be selling?

I'm not going to say don't sell, but I don't think your highs are in yet, but one thing I look at, when you look at in the U.S., we had on this report ending stocks domestically dropping corn.

They dropped in wheat.

All wheat basically.

For 2020, 2021.

And then they also dropped in rice, and in feed grains.

When you get all four of those on the same path, or the same ledger, whatever you want to call it, you're in a bull market.

The one thing is you'll play tag, which we're seeming to be doing.

Then look at the global scale.

The only one out of all of those, well I guess two, feed grains and corn, managed to see stocks drop.

But in the other two, wheat and rice, they went up.

Especially in the '21, '22 time frame.

So I think we still have work to do on that level, but I think we're in evolving markets.

You know, at the early part of this year, I had -- I think I was on the show and might have even made the comment I thought we'd move up into summer.

June, July, and we'd go down into November, and our lows for the year would be in November.

I still believe that.

And so that's adding a little caution to listeners, and viewers, because we are going to get some opportunities here.

Is the crop this year in corn and beans going to be a disaster?

I don't think so, but I don't think it's the wherewith all either.

>> And the report you danced a little.

Bullish for corn.

>> Very.

>> But we were up until the last day of trading this weekend and Friday fell off the table.

Why?

>> When you look at corn, it's fighting soybeans, which the report was not bullish on.

There wasn't any facet of it bullish.

And then you look at wheat.

It wasn't real special there.

Then you had rains come across the Dakotas.

So all of, even though there was heat in the forecast for the weekend and next week, in fact for the 8 to 14-day forecast, heat, and yet the market chose to ignore that.

I think with these rains coming through overnight, kind of took them by surprise, yankton got an inch, bless their hearts.

A lot of heat will evaporate a lot of that.

I think the market said, came up, fairly close, 28.25 was the high on December corn.

High before that is 38.25.

Fairly close.

take in some profit-taking for the weekend, and they stepped aside.

>> All right.

So in soybeans, though, you mentioned the report, not friendly to the soybean market.

>> Right.

But there's a huge discrepancy between July and November.

Why is that?

>> Well, because we had such tight, old crop supplies.

You know, we started off at 120 million bushels, carryout, for several months here, and we've felt that might be pipeline supply, ADM research even saying that.

They've got a whale of a reVERCH department.

We will to believe if that is pipeline supplies what is that saying?

That's saying each report you get, that 120 is not going any lower, and if anything, it's going to go higher.

So it's defusing some of that bullish attitude, even though it's also saying we don't have anymore beans.

>> Does it sound like B like we've already rationed and our own when that number doesn't go up?

That's a swear word.

I get it.

>> Well, you could say we've rationed.

The crush dropped.

Also, where are we in our crop year?

Because Brazil was delayed in their harvest, because they laid in the planting and delayed in the harvest, that shoved that crop in our face later than normal.

So, therefore, we're dealing with that, but they're also dealing with not getting it out the door fast as they'd like either.

So I think our demand slowed a little bit, and if you don't have the beans, you can't crush them.

So they got to drop the crush.

What is did that do?

Ups the numbers.

>> Real quick.

Gary in Franksville, Wisconsin wrote us on twitter.

Talked a lot about the weather.

He's asking, a quick thing.

What is a good way to protect prices ifs you're in a dry area?

He says I hate to sell and not have a crop to back it up with.

>> I would recommend buying puts and not on anymore and that what your crop insurance does.

I would also recommend, because volatility is key in this market and I think you'll see volatility all summer long.

Even into early fall.

So I think what I would do is even entertain put spreads, buying a putt, selling a put nap will cheapen up your costs but you have to manage it and walk the market down if it goes down.

If it goes up you won't have spent as much for that insurance.

I remember when options came out.

That's how they sold it to us.

It's insurance.

That's about what it was if you weren't the speculator.

>> This week the world coretext, we talk about producers in my ear warranting to know more about this market.

A big discussion is about the exports, and how they have continued to help this market, but also facing headwinds of feed issues.

Why isn't hogs being impacted bike the cattle industry is when it comes to feed?

>> For one thing, go back to last year.

Last year we've seen, because of the, no the able to get hogs to the packing house and get them in, you've seen a huge liquidation that was under-estimated or -- just was underrated.

And then you also through the winter saw furs and PED virus.

That tightened us up.

We're tight supplied on hog numbers coming in as opposed to the cattle market, because of packers not being able to kill as many as they'd like to, can't find labor.

Well, unfortunately, therefore, they're oversupplied for what the killing capacity is right now.

The other thing with the hog market is, the sows.

You were seeing huge liquidation of sows and prices got to $80 back in April, I think it was, and the last time I think that happened might have been 2014?

So, know, they got really high.

Now they have dropped back off.

They might be hanging in the $50 range or whatever, but the price of corn has come up.

So now the producers got to decide, okay.

You know?

Corn is this.

Soy meal, which hasn't been the runner in the bean complex.

So it's still tolerable and we're telling producers, get yourselves protected, because we think long term that soybean market is going to bite.

>> Seems a ridiculous amount of optimism, no the right now but for down the line.

Is there a reason for that?

I think your cattle members as we get into August and the third quarter should be a little tighter, but, we need to keep seeing some of these cattle moving.

The problem you're encountering is what's holding corn up right now in the U.S. is our weather market.

You know, when we started this corn market, we started last August.

How?

The USDA started to admit maybe they overstated the crop for the previous KRO two years and starting showing more demand.

Demand came at us full force.

We moved into a demand market that we hadn't seen in a long time, and the market was relentless and very trendy.

Then we got into march-April and started traiting not only demand but satisfy Farina corn weather and when did we peak?

Which that corn pollinated.

>> Okay.

>> And that -- >> Ten seconds.

>> All right.

Ten seconds, all right.

But that has created the corn price to be high, so the producer in the feeders is saying, wow.

Look at the different cattle prices they're not paying very well to feed those feeders but this cow moving out of the south west and northern plains.

>> We will continue in a moment.

Thanks, Sue.

>>> That's it for this program.

We will continue to discuss in market plus.

Thank you, Sue Martin.

Thank you for watching.

I'm Paul Yeager.

Have a great week.

♪♪ >>> "Market To Market" is a production of Iowa PBS solely responsible for its content.

>>> What's the most complex industry on earth?

Not genetics or meteorology or logistics.

It's a business that involves them all.

Thank you, farmers, from pioneer.

>>> Tomorrow -- For over 100 years we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow.

Trust in tomorrow.

Information is available from a Grinnell mutual agent today.