Michigan voters may get a chance to pick the nominees for secretary of state and attorney general, under a proposal being pushed by Lon Johnson and others.

He's the former state Democrati Party chair, and he's up next.

And so is off the record.

So sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the Record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in par by Bellwether Public Relations, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

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And now this edition of Off the Record, with Tim Skubick.

Welcome back to studio C, another edition of Off to Record.

Two polls, not one, but two polls out this wee on the governor's race and U.S.

Senate Democratic primary.

Let's take a look at the numbers and then make some sense of same.

Everybody in the nation's capital, from the president on down, are keeping a close eye and a sharp eye in the Michigan hotly contested U.S.

Senate race.

U.S.

Senator Gary Peters is hanging up.

And so it's an open seat.

And the odds on favorite to get the Republican nomination is Mike Rogers.

However, the odds and the other party as to who's going to get the nomination is not quite as clear.

There's Mallory McMorrow, Abdul El-Sayed, and Haley Stevens.

They are locked in a contentious battle for the Democratic nomination in the latest polling data suggests it's a mixed bag.

For example, veteran Michigan pollster Steve Mitchell statewide survey for the Mirror's newsletter reports that doctor El-Sayed has about a ten point lead.

Very impressive over Miss Stevens and Miss McMorrow, with 39% undecided.

But in a different hea to head poll by veteran pollster Richard Czuba, Mr.

Rogers actually beats the Democratic frontrunner, El-Sayed, by five points.

However, it's a statistical dead heat with the two female candidates running in the Democratic primary against Mr.

Rogers.

So what makes this so unusual is that the person that the Democrats currently favored to take on, Mr.

Rogers is the very person who would lose.

What about that Bill Ballenger Pundit?

The Republicans are hoping that El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee.

They think he will be easier to beat.

As for the two women who are tied with Mr.

Rogers, what would they be saying?

They're saying, look, I'll say it may look very attractive to a lot of voters, in the Democratic primary, but guess what?

He's going to be a weak nominee against Mike Rogers.

And one of us, whichever one is talking.

McMorrow or Stevens.

we would be far better as a general election candidate against Mike Rogers.

The reason everybody is bird dogging this race, it could determine which political party runs the U.S.

Senate.

All right, so here's th question on the governor's race.

What is a more important story, do you all think Miss Benson doing so well against everybody or Mr.

Duggan dropping?

Well, I think it's the Benson piece because it it shows what th climate is looking like overall.

You know, traditionally we'd be saying this should look like a good year for the Republican after eight years of a Democratic governor.

And the fact that Jocelyn Benson right now has a just barely outside the margin of error lead in one survey.

even with a lifelong Democrat and Mike Duggan in the race against a, you know the Republican frontrunner, John James, it says, yeah, the the typical midterm dynamic where the president's party, the Republican Party, has a lot of problems is manifesting, at least in this survey.

I would say, honestly, the opposite of Duggan dropping being a big story.

And I think it's for a couple of reasons, one of which is in that polling data, I believe from Mr.

Shuba, it shows that he has more support over with Republicans than Democrats.

I would be concerned if I'm a Democratic candidate for governor here, that at the beginning of this race, you know, Dugan's entry into this was seen as trouble for Democrats.

It was all about how many votes is he going to take away from that side?

How much is this going to potentially benefit as a as a middle of the road candidate?

how much is it going to benefit Republicans?

This could be hurting them.

This could the Monkeypaw could have curled somewhere.

Granted, this is, you know, just the second pol that we've seen regarding this.

and with polling you always have to be careful.

But, I mean, that's that's something that is going to be a through line moving forward.

Break the tie, Simon.

I agree with Jordan that I think, you know, it's important to note that in this chamber poll, John James and Jocelyn Benson are wiht inside the margin of error of each other.

But it's really Mike Duggan who's falling off at 23%, whereas Benson has 34, which is outside that 4% margin of error.

And so that means that, you know, dug in that there was a February poll earlier, also conducted by the Chamber of Registered Voters.

This one was conducted of likely voters.

So different samples different kinds of respondents and that one, Duggan was doing much better back i Philly was tied with everybody.

Well, he was among likely voters in that poll, but that was a subsample of a larger one.

I feel like I'm going to talk about survey methodology now where we know this is why I'm not super je like, I'm not buying the like.

Duggan fell because there has been one survey that showed him, at 30% within the margin of error.

There's thing called outliers when it comes to polls.

And right now, if you look at the bulk of the surveys that's been taken, just about all of them have Mike Duggan anywhere between, what, like 17 to 23%, with the exception of one, the chamber survey that came out.

So it's possible that he fell.

I'm not saying it isn't but it also could be an outlier, an anxiety that either party is feeling right now shouldn't necessarily be over.

Because while you know you have labels on on Benson and James, Democratic and Republican candidates, Duggan isn't as well known outstate outside of the metro Detroi area as these other candidates.

So he still has time with the right financial resources to sort of set his brand in.

But I think you have to look at the numbers in the context of all those TV ads that have been.

Have you seen him?

Yes.

Yeah.

So this is the thing, Mike.

The, put progress first.

The nonprofit supporting Mike Duggan has spent about $15 million on television ads.

And from Perry Jones and and a zillion billboards.

Mike Duggan, the reason he got his head taken off this week, and rightfully so over this poll, is he touted the poll that came out earlier, put him at 30%.

He's like, hey, this is the proof point.

I'm often run running, baby.

And then look what happened So now he has to face the music.

It's like, well, you know what's what.

Now Mike Duggan so yes, this is a problem for Mike Duggan.

This was a bad week for Mike Duggan.

plus he has to put it i context where Benson picked up some ground female voters and younger voters, and they were and and solid Democrats were coming home, they think driven by what's going on with the president and all the economy and stuff like that.

So Benson was picking up tha in this, taken away from Duggan.

So what about her?

Yeah, I mean to zero in on ad spending.

We see a lot of spending from put progress first.

We've seen a lot of spending from the superPAC supporting John James mission Michigan Jocelyn Benso has largely kept her powder dry.

She hasn't had any campaign spending on advertising, to my knowledge and we haven't seen the outside groups come in that are surely going to, you know, provid a deluge of money into this race moving forward.

That hasn't happened yet.

All excuse me.

What I was going to say, though, is that, you know, for Duggan, I think the poll should be a wake up call.

And I think, and I've said this before, you know, we talked about Duggan being this, you know, candidate, this candidate that is outside of Democrat and Republican, and he's really trying to saddle that line of, you know people are fed up with politics, which I've said before is a great line.

But what does that mean once you actually get into office, for instance, yesterday you rolled out a plan about data centers.

And I say plan somewhat loosely because, you know, as part of it, it was basically, hey, like, we have to have data centers in the state, but we're also going to listen to locals who don't want data centers in the state.

Got to have it both ways.

So and that's the thing is, you can't be a candidate who continues to talk out of both sides of your mouth.

Who are you appealing to?

I mean, clearly, obviously he's getting Republican and some Democratic support.

But at the end of the day, when it comes to meeting the rubber in the road what actually do you stand for?

We're in a polarize political environment right now.

There's still issues that are at the top of the government' agenda over the past few years that divide Democrats and Republicans, even people who are frustrated with both parties.

They still have view on abortion, on firearm control.

And those things aren't going to change moving into the general election.

So the more that Mike Duggan is forced to talk about them, the secure position he's going to be in, I thought maybe even mor interesting in the poll was just a general attitude shift from Mike Duggan this week.

He said things like, I've got work to do.

He talked about how his son, Ed Duggan, who's his campaign manager, said it's time to come home, meaning this, you know, traveling the rest of the state to build up his name.

ID you got to get back to Southeast Michigan even though you've got massive worry about he's got mass, even though you have massive name ID, that's where half the votes are.

And there's clearly some softening up there.

So it's clear his team sees reason for concern.

And let's look at the US Senate.

This Democratic thing is very interesting.

I thought the lead out of this thing was Mike Rogers beats the frontrunne El-Sayed, in the two women tie.

What did you make of that?

so two women, Mallory McMorrow and Haley Stevens.

I mean, here's the thing.

There's huge name recognition around outside right now.

There's huge consternation in between, the various Democratic candidates, and the people who support them.

This is a messy, messy primary.

And I think that, you know, we saw that play out at the, conventions earlier, with, the booin that occurred of Haley Stevens.

you know, look, I think that it it I don't honestly, frankly, don't know what to make of it with polling as all of the things, it's up in the air.

I, I it's an honest answer.

Frankly, I think the polling reflects a lot of the hand-wringing that you're seeing from some people in the Democratic establishment right now.

I think the fear among some of these folks, especially moderates, is that this Senate Democratic primary is going to become a microcosm of what are the why.

I'm sorry.

Let me really reverse that.

What we sa at the Michigan Democratic Party endorsement convention is going to be a microcosm of what we see in the Senate primary, that there's going to be a lot of motivated, younger, progressive voters coming out in support of El-Sayed.

But then when it come to the general election season, they're not going to turn out in the strength necessary to beat them past Mike Rogers, an established candidate, especially compared to senior citizens who show up in larger numbers traditionally.

Right.

And it's important to note that this poll was a text message poll.

And generally speaking, those skewed towards younger voters, they're more likely to click those links and answer those online services.

Yeah, I, I'm, I'm sayin right now that El-Sayed has won what I would call the vibes primary he which by the way doesn't get you nominated.

but it does mean right now there's a lot of excitement among the most progressive elements of the Democratic Party.

I would hesitate to call Abdul El-Sayed the frontrunner.

You know, 28% in a three way race.

It's not exactly, you know, blowing the doors off the competition.

And the biggest number to me is that undecided.

third, it's like a third of almost.

Yeah.

And what the margin of error was like 4 in 10 people.

But that's my point, though about the the.

Sorry, I don't mean to interrupt you, but the hand wringing is what do you even make of this poll?

Sure, I could say tomorrow that Stevens is, you know, u or that Rogers would do better.

What?

What are we doing here, then?

What about the mayor?

So the Michigan Education Association, the largest public employee union, the state with more than 140,000 teachers and support staff members, announced this week that it is not yet.

It may still, but not yet, making an endorsement in the governor's race.

Why did they have to say that?

That is a question I asked.

Very good.

What was the answer you got?

Basically, the answer was, well, we met about it, and if we didn't say something about it, that would be a story, too.

We didn't know they met.

No they could have gotten away with it.

it it is astonishing.

An announcement o not making a choice is a choice.

And it really sent a message.

And I just can't imagine what, the Jocelyn Benson campaign must have thought when this was announced.

She's the prohibitive front runner for the Democratic nomination.

This union is more important than your average union, because it has a reputatio of not only endorsing Democrats in competitive primaries, but their candidates win.

Jennifer Granholm, most of organized labo went with David Bonnier in 2002. the MEA went with Granholm, and she won in 2018, most of labor was casting about looking for somebody other than Gretchen Whitmer.

They early and enthusiasticall endorsed Whitmer, and she won.

So for them did not get behind Benson.

Wow.

Yeah.

And you know, I think to your point that I was at the MEA foru earlier this year where we saw, Mike Duggan on stage, Chris Swanson, Jocelyn Benson and Republican Mike Cox and Chris Swanson.

Safe to say, he's very much an underdog in this Democratic primary at the moment.

He was very much saying wha these employees wanted to hear.

And so this committee, for them to arrive at, a nominee, an endorsement, they have to have a majority of the members in the selection committee.

And so, I think, you know, when you look at probably I would imagine this is me just sort of reading the tea leaves, I think that there was probably quite a bit of division between, support for Doug and support for Swanson and Benson.

Swanson has courted labor extremely aggressively, and that's been sort of a main pillar of his campaign.

Do you suppose Mrs.

Benson called it the MEA and said hey.

Well, I don't know, but, it's she hasn't done particularly well getting labor endorsements at all.

You know, Swanson, to Simon' point, has gotten quite a few.

Mike Duggan's gotten quite a few.

Benson has a few, too, but it doesn't have Democratic frontrunner reputation of getting endorsements like usual.

Alrigh well speaking of frontrunners.

Let's call in one Lon.

Lon Johnson.

Welcome back to Off the Record.

How many years has it been?

Jeez.

Ten.

Ten.

Is that really ten?

Maybe 11 years.

Wow.

Did you miss us?

Absolutely.

Okay, so you're back.

You're on a new agenda.

Let me just try to quickly lay the foundation of what you're trying to do right now.

Under the current system, the attorney general, secretary of state nominees are made at convention.

You want to give the people of Michigan the right to do that and why?

Well, first off, it's just not me.

It's a coalition.

You know, we're buildin a coalition of both Democrats.

Just formed this week.

We formed a committee.

Yes, a ballot committee called, voters, not insiders.

And it's, we're building and developing that coalition now of Democrats and Republicans, business and labor and and former and current elected officials to change how we, we nominate our party's candidates.

You know, we're under a constitutional system.

That's a reflection of a bygone era.

We're only one of three states that do it this way under a convention style.

Why didnt you try to change it when you were chair?

Two reasons.

Number one, it was that the Constitution number two, as a chair of a party, if you're not focused on winning elections, you're gonna get run out of town.

Your job is to, win elections and not run elections.

So you're looking to field a ballot proposal about this?

That's correct.

So what would happe is, the state House in the state Senate would have to pass a bill, and put it before, the voters for a decision.

And, and the voters woul then have to make the decision.

There's already going to be in this November, proposal before voters that would allow a full suite of constitutional changes.

Yes.

Wanted to support that instead?

You know, that's that'll be another question.

However, you know, we've had a number of those constitutional convention questions put before voters.

They they have not passed.

We're not going to wait.

We're going to put this, we're seeking to put this on the ballot this year.

So the ballot proposals are not cheap by any sense of the word.

who is backing you?

Who's supporting you in this?

Well, largely putting it on the ballot will be the job of the legislature.

Number one.

Number two, the polling shows that, the last time we pulled on this two years ago, it showed an 80%, four voters choosing, and the primary process.

But do you seriously think the legislature is going to do that, though, because the House is controlled by Republicans at the moment who very much seem to be gleeful about what happened, at this past endorsement convention for Democrats?

Well, we'll see.

I mean, I can't speak for Speaker Hall or leader Leader Brinks, but, we'll see.

And I think it's the time has come.

I believe that there's consensus out there.

And I think we'll find that consensus in the legislature.

Your name, the name of the committee is voters, not insiders, but probably the progressives on the lef and the MAGA wing on the right would say, actually, this is insiders trying to step on outsider because the convention system, allows for the grassroots of each political party, as you know former Democratic Party chair, to have, quite an effect, beyond what would usually happen in a statewide primary that will cost, you know, millions of dollars to run.

And these are these convention races are low cost affairs.

We're going to the the Lincoln dinners and the legacy dinners around the state and meeting with activists.

So how is this no a bunch of insiders trying to, stomp on what's been going on at these conventions?

I wouldn't call, presenting, the voters of the state with a choice wrong.

Whenever you open up a process, bring more people involved.

it's the right thing to do.

the, you know, having 3000 people in a room support you.

that's less than a state house primary for offices.

As important as a constitutional office of attorney general.

Secretary of state We've got to open this process.

All right, let's talk some practical politics.

You have to make a deal with the speaker to get a two thirds vote in the House.

Right?

Well, I don't know that I but, our committee will will be seeking to get the support of the elections.

I'm just going to guess, just a guess that in return for a two thirds vote, the speake might want something in return.

Are you prepared to deal with him again?

I'm not.

I'm not a legislator.

Well, no, you're not a legislator.

But you got you've got to want.

Well, we we have a want.

Absolutely.

We want to.

And so he says.

We want to we want to bring the voters to, deciding who their nominees should be, not insiders and, and, special interest.

And he says to Mr.

Johnson, it's a great idea, but I need some votes for my property tax relief plan from the Democrats.

Will you help me get votes?

I have no, no, no power over that.

That's a. Do you have a phone?

I have a phone.

You do, and so your phone is dead or what?

I think you're you're overexaggerating, my former chairman status.

Well, would you help get some votes for hi in return for votes for yours?

Our job is to is to bring this process open to the voters and change our constitution.

That was not an answer to my question.

Are you willing to force trade to get what you want?

We are willing.

We know our job here and in this ballot committee is to open up this process.

And what happens at the legislatur to get that, to make that happen is between the two leaders of the state, state House and the state Senate.

We're not here to get involved in the in the tit for tat negotiations of other matters.

You're going to trust they're going to do the right thing.

Well, I think that we saw it happen in prop one two years ago, business and labor came together.

Democrats, Republicans came together on a subject that was less salient than in putting, candidate before the voters.

Why does these two offices, attorney general, secretary of state, want to open up every office?

Well, we will be we will start with, you know, ultimately, we'd like to see the university board go, you know, be appointed by the governor.

We'd like to see the attorne general and secretary of state.

Oh you would remove the statewide electio from university boards entirely?

Well, again, we won't be making that decision.

The state House and state Senate.

But look, anytime we are.

I mean, if you're pushing for the initiative, I think your building the framework.

Yeah and everything needs to go before the voters, however, there's a reality of what, you know how long this ballot can be and, what can be done, in, in, in bits and pieces here, to change our constitution.

Whats your concept with the Supreme Court?

Those offices are nominated b the political party conventions.

Now, even though they run on the nonpartisan ballot, which people have said for years, it's bizarre.

Would you make a change in how they're nominated too.

Our focus will be the attorney general, the secretary of state, those two constitutional offices.

From there, whether you know folks, at the legislature or others want to go beyond that, that's obviously open for discussion and debate.

Now, if memory serves, the last time that we made these changes from, you know, party member onl conventions to, statewide paper vote was in 1963, the last time we amended the Constitution.

Yeah.

Is it just a coincidence that you're pushing for this now, in a year where moderate Democrats are feeling a lot of consternation about the way their own endorsement process went at their convention?

No.

In fact, you know, that argument.

What does it say about your case that you feel you can do better in a room of 3000 insider versus a statewide electorate?

And I would use, you know Abdul, who's having his moment in the sun.

The progressives are doing quite well on a statewide basis.

So that argument just doesn't hold water.

You know, holding, allowing more voters into the process is always great thing to do.

Is Mike Duggan in trouble?

I believe so, yeah, absolutely.

this poll showed that, I think real problems he spent $14 million.

I think there's two things that we're seeing here.

One is getting no traction.

It'll be stuck at 23, 24, for quite some time, despite spending wha you just said, $14, $15 million.

And second, you know, Joh James, who's run statewide twice and has money, been spent on on his his case and, Jocelyn has kept her party powder dry, as you discussed earlier in the still, leading in these polls.

That's real trouble at some point in.

It's going to come sooner than later.

Mike has going to have to make a decision.

You heard he was running as an independent.

Your first thought was?

Its a loss for our party.

Because what?

It was a loss for our party .

Losing Mike, as a Democrat?

Absolutely.

Yeah.

It's a loss for our party.

But now, though, looking at the stakes, I mean, is it really a loss?

Because it seems to be that Mr.

Duggan is pulling well with Republicans, which would be a boon to Democratic gubernatorial can't.

I'm not we're not facing, you know, look, we're we're not paying attention to Mike Duggan or John James.

We're talking about Jocelyn Benson.

She's solidifying the state.

She's solidified our party.

She's leading in the polls, and she's raising the mind needed to win this race.

And she's ahead in the polls.

What more do you want for candidate?

Why?

Why is she having trouble locking in organized labor?

I mean it, she's a prohibitive favorite over Chris Swanson for the Democratic nomination.

And yet we're seeing one big union after another going with either Duggan or Swanson.

She has a few of her own, but you'd think she'd have the whole firmament of organized labor behind her.

What is going on there?

Well, you know, and Jocelyn we've had, you know, a candidate that's been the top vote getter three times now statewide.

Mike, Duggan has had extensive more relationships with labor unions.

And so there's a bit more familiarity there, with him.

And I think that, as time moves forward, as we move, great.

Move into this campaign, you'll see Jocelyn picking up more, more labor union support.

You just mentioned the MEA, but labor unions do one thing while they negotiate.

And as you just said, the key word was, yet they haven't endorsed.

So we'll see what happens.

So what about the her problem with the African American community?

We had Karen Weaver sitting in that chair a couple of weeks ago, was very concerned about some people who were had discrimination suits against the SOS who were discriminated against the as minorities is not a problem.

Well, I think you know it.

Clearly it's not.

It's not preferable.

But the the the Secretary of state will negotiate with that and work with that, you know, but her record on civil rights has been clear.

She's picking up suppor among African American voters, not just in Detroit but statewide.

And her office is is, dealing with that.

So this is a blip?

Well, I don't, you know, look, it these are, these are these are charges that she takes very seriously and she will address them.

But I think her record, on civil rights is very, very clear.

And, you know, she just picked up the Eastside slate endorsement, I think, but two days ago, she's out there, withi the African-American community and gathering support as we speak.

Let's talk about the US Senate race.

when you were party chair going into the 2014 election, the late Carl Levin, decided not to seek reelection.

And there was almost this instant consolidatio in the party behind Gary Peters.

There was very much a thought like, we cannot have a primary, we cannot blow resources.

We need to get behind somebody right away.

And it worked.

He not only ended up being the nominee, he won going away over Terry Land.

He was the only U.S.

Senate elected that year.

Yes.

The only Democrats win an open seat that year.

Credit for that, right?

Of course.

Fast forward 12 years later, the total opposite is is happening.

Gary Peters decides he's not going to run again.

The seat opens up.

There is no consolidation.

There is the one of the most fractious Democratic primaries I've ever seen.

And it's still only May.

How much is the party at risk here of blowing the seat?

you know, I think when you look at the Senate race right now, the, you know, let's talk about the progressive.

You know, you talked earlier about the undecideds.

How many progressive voters you know, are undecided.

You know, I know Abdul is having his moment in the sun right now.

But when we look, when we loo at who's remaining their white non progressive senior voters and their African-American, and I think those voters, will be going, with Haley, I think this race is coming down between Haley and Abdul.

At this point, picking an ideological lan is very important in a primary.

Haley has done that and Abdul has done that.

And I think, that will be rewarded for Haley.

In terms of the ideological lane, Haley's lane is much larger.

Johnson.

Mr.

Johnson, quickly, how many people are on the steering committee?

That's developing now.

You know, currently we're we're in discussions with a whole host of people, but we will have a rather large one and it'll be bipartisan.

What's the one big thing you're hoping you get?

Oh, I think, you know, governors, businesses.

Well, so this Whitmer has turned you down?

we have, you know, we're not we're not talking to the governor just yet.

We're talking about past governors, Governor Engler, Governor Blanchard, other governors, you know, look at the see the need for reform and and, we're trying to put together the team to get that done.

Good to see you.

Thank you.

Thanks for showing up.

Also thanks to you guys too.

More t saveof Off the record next week.

See you then.

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