- Hi, I'm Marc Rotterman.

Coming up, North Carolina families struggle to find baby formula.

We'll get the latest from the General Assembly, and Donald Trump leads Biden and Harris in 2024 matchups.

Next.

- [Voiceover] Major funding for "Front Row" was provided by Robert L. Luddy.

Additional funding provided by Patricia and Koo Yuen, the Yuen Foundation, committed to bridging cultural differences in our communities.

And by... [dramatic music] Funding for the Lightning Round provided by Boddie-Noell Foundation, NC Realtors, Mary Louise and John Burress, Rifenburg Construction, and Helen Laughery.

[dramatic music] A complete list of funders can be found at pbsnc.org/frontrow.

[dramatic music] - Welcome back, joining the conversation, Mitch Kokai with the John Locke Foundation, Colin Campbell, Editor of the "North Carolina Tribute", Donna King, Editor-in-Chief of "Carolina Journal", and Nelson Dollar, Senior Policy Advisor, North Carolina Speaker of the House.

Donna, let's begin with the baby formula crisis.

- Absolutely, and I think unless you have a baby in the House, you really don't understand how serious, how much panic there's been over baby formula.

Infants, on average, use about one can every four days.

And the Attorney General now says they're seeing price gauging.

There was one instance with a can of formula going for $158.

It's outrageous, and I think what we're really seeing is an utter failure by the FDA in managing this whole thing, from beginning to end.

From the first inspection, to getting it reopened.

Ultimately, now what we're seeing, the North Carolina Retailers Association says, "We are getting some supplies back, it's showing up in stores again, but now what we're seeing is it can't stay on the shelves.

People are buying it, even if they don't need, it to resell it."

They're stocking it, they're worried it's gonna happen again.

I can't believe what I'm seeing, frankly.

I mean, you know, this is North Carolina, and it's in many cases, big cities- - [Marc] Listen, this is America!

- with like lots of access.

And I think that this is just the beginning.

There are also rumors that there's going to be, you know, shortages and rationing on other things, particularly as items that come from petroleum, like fertilizer, become more and more scarce.

This is an ongoing problem.

And I think right now, with baby formula, it's sort of become an idea of what could be coming down the road, but we are seeing it come back into stores.

And if we're living in a time where we can't feed our infants, what's next?

- Mitch, should the government have been more proactive?

They saw this coming.

- Well, they certainly did.

We know that north Carolina's Senator, Richard Burr, really came out and said that the Biden administration, and the FDA, had dropped the ball on this, that there were signs of baby formula shortages last fall.

And that by February, it was clear that this problem was going to be coming, but nothing seemed to be done.

It also points to the fact that this is a case where the government is way too involved in a market.

When the government gets involved and sets too- - Is it too much government in general, you think?

- Well, there's certainly too much government in general, but in this case, there certainly is.

Because the government sets very strict rules on what formula can be used, where you can get it, how you can get it, when you can get it.

Once the government steps in, in a way like this, things have to work very well and be right on top.

Or you're going to run into problems where you're gonna have a thing like a shortage.

- Colin, is this a political issue in November, you think?

- Oh potentially, it's one of those things that sort of affects a fairly small percentage of the population.

So if you're a mom who's been driving two hours to find formula, you're probably still gonna be thinking about this, and thinking about who you wanna blame come November.

- Or if you're the dad who's married to the angry mom.

- [Colin] Yeah.

If you're doing the driving, exactly.

If you're not in that category, perhaps it's an issue that you're really only thinking about when it's on the news.

And we may be onto the next shortage by November.

- [Marc] Nelson, weigh in here.

- Well, here's Biden's problem.

The issue came to light in January, and it wasn't until mid-May that the White House began scrambling for solutions.

So a plant that produces 16% of the nation's supply of baby formula, you can't just have a recall, and then the FDA sit idle for three months on that plant, and not move on anything, they should have been...

The regulator should have been in there to resolve the problem 24/7, if that's what it required.

And they should have immediately opened up the US market to European and other manufacturers, and I think the- - [Marc] Is there quality control if you get it from Europe?

- Well, there are some suppliers that would be, but there are certainly suppliers in Europe who can give you top-quality baby formula.

I think Europeans know how to manufacture that.

And I think that broadly, the problem for the President, is it sort of reinforces the narrative that he's never on top of these issues, that he's always reacting.

- [Marc] Great point.

- He's being driven by events.

- [Marc] Donna, wrap this up, in about 30 seconds.

- I mean, I really think what you're seeing is a... that a need for a free-market approach to everything, not just baby formula.

And airlifting, taking a military, you know, C-17 to bring in a million baby bottles worth of baby formula, one time, and pose in front of it for a photo-op, isn't gonna resolve this problem.

- Let's change gears, talk about the General Assembly, Colin - Yeah, so they're finally back and in full swing this week, and the hot topic, particularly on the Senate side, has been Medicaid expansion.

It was sort of bizarre, this week, to sit in a press conference, in which Senate Leader, Phil Berger, gave a full-throated endorsement of Medicaid expansion as the right policy.

Of course, that's a policy that Governor Roy Cooper has been, and Democrats have been, pushing for years.

Republicans across the board have been opposed to, and now we're seeing movement in the Senate, granted with the caveat that they've put in a bunch of other sort of free-market, sort of conservative changes, to the healthcare marketplace, attached.

And say, "Those are essential components to make this work," but it' still a significant shift.

Now, granted, it's a shift that's probably not gonna go super far, because the House Speaker, Tim Moore, has already said he's not willing to bring Medicaid expansion up.

- [Marc] Said that last week here.

- Yeah, said that last week here, said it again this week, he says, you know, "Maybe next year when we have a long session, we could take up an issue that complicated."

But there's just not nearly as much support in the House for it, so it may be sort of a dead issue in a couple weeks.

- Mitch, what have you been following?

- Well, there's that issue, and I think one of the things that's interesting is that it's not just a, what you call, a "clean" Medicaid expansion bill, where that's the only issue.

There were other things added to it, like scaling back the Certificate of Need law, having more telehealth services, also allowing advanced practice nurses to practice to the full extent of their training.

But there are a lot of concerns, among people on both sides of the aisle, about all of those issues.

So lumping them together makes that a harder sell.

Another big thing that we saw was this Parents' Bill of Rights.

- Right, thanks for bringing that up.

- Yeah, the Locke Foundation had put forward a Parents' Bill of Rights.

It was a little bit different, 'cause we focused more on, in our proposal, on making sure the parents know what's going on in the schools.

There's some of that in the Senate's plan, plus they also added in a piece that said, "No curriculum about gender-related issues, for anyone from K through 3," which is the one that has been latched upon by the opponents of this [Bill], saying that it's kind of like that Florida, "Don't Say Gay law".

And that people saying, maybe this- - That's not... they talk about it as that, "Don't Say Gay" law?

- That's right.

- [Marc] But it's not in the legislation.

- That's definitely not in the legislation, but it's being compared to this.

And some of the critics are also saying, "Oh, you're revving up the HB2 issues again."

So it's gonna be interesting to see where that goes.

- Donna, the governor will veto that bill though, if it goes through both Houses, right?

- I think that it... he would likely do so, I think that the issue that we're seeing, though, is that this bill has some similarities, but this is a trend that we're seeing across the country.

I mean, we've got 26 states considering legislation very similar to this.

And this is really something that stems from parents' frustration, and a lot of it related to COVID and online school, and suddenly seeing what their kids are learning in classes.

And this collapse of a government-run public education system.

And parents are now coming in and saying, "My kid's not gonna be the experiment.

My child is gonna have some options.

And if I can't move them, and if I'm forced to stay in my neighborhood school, I'm gonna have a say in what goes on there."

- When are we gonna see a budget, Nelson?

- Well, we hope to see a budget before late June.

- [Marc] You can tell us.

- I can tell you, well, the budget process is the top issue.

It's well underway, appropriators from both chambers are working together on what's called a "budget conference report", that's gonna shorten the process.

We are set to a target, to have that budget done by late June.

Revenues remain strong, but on the one hand, inflation is increasing the cost of everything that you buy, whether it's asphalt, bricks, mortar, healthcare, employee wages.

On the other hand, there's a risk of recession.

That's on the rise, and there's a concern about expanding programs right now, until we have a better idea about where the economy is headed.

The upside is we still have a lot of talented people in businesses coming to North Carolina.

And we have the state reserves to weather a downturn in economy.

- How much does the... what's going on in the American economy, and up on Washington, impact our budget?

- Well, it does impact North Carolina.

I mean, North Carolina is an extremely strong economy, is very well positioned with state reserves, if we do have a downturn.

But I expect, when you look at all the bubbles out there in the economy, we're probably headed toward a recession, and North Carolina is in position to try to weather that.

- Okay, I'm gonna move on.

There was a very interesting Harvard-Harris poll.

It looks like Donald Trump is a good position for 2024, Mitch.

- We're in the midst of the 2022 midterm elections right now, but this Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll already looks ahead to 2024.

And you're exactly right that, you know, head-to-head matchup between former President, Donald Trump, and current President Joe Biden, Trump would lead 47 to 41.

And if for some reason the Democrats decided to run Vice President Kamala Harris, instead it would be even better news for Donald Trump, a 49 to 38 lead in that head-to-head matchup, and- - [Marc] I love these hypotheticals.

- That's right, and there are other pieces of bad news for the party that's in power.

63% of those polls say the country's on the wrong track.

68% say the economy's on the wrong track.

56% say they're already seeing some bad signs in their own financial situation.

So Biden gets pretty poor marks across the board, the only exception being the way that he handles COVID.

The one other thing I'll mention, before we get to some of the other things from the other panelists, is that if Trump does not run, who are the next in line to run for the Republican side?

It seems like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is the number two pick, ahead of former Vice President, Mike Pence.

- Colin, what struck you about the poll?

- You know, what was interesting to me most was they had a nice chart in there about the wrong track, right track change.

And it was funny like, look, go back several years, there was only a three or four-month period where more people in America thought the country was on the right track, than the wrong track.

And that was about a year ago, when we were coming out of COVID, vaccines were out.

We're a pessimistic country, and we, in many ways, are sort of going from one crisis to the other.

So we're almost consistently blaming whoever's the President on that particular year.

- Do you think Biden can recover, Nelson, before November pivot?

- No, he cannot.

I mean, these trends have been building since last summer, so it's really locked in at this point.

He very much looks like Carter ahead of the 1978 midterms.

But the worst numbers for the President are 53% of voters in this poll said that he was not mentally fit to run free elections.

- That's the Democrats, Republicans, and the Independents, correct?

- Yes, sir, and 62% of Americans, of all stripes, saying he was showing he's too old.

I mean, those are the kinds of numbers that are going to stick with President Biden.

And very difficult for him to overcome with any new, different policies.

- You know, what struck me, Donna, is the majority of the people really think the economy's in trouble.

- That's exactly right, about 35% approved of its handling of the economy in this poll.

But a lot of the things struck me about that is that these aren't things that will be turned around quickly.

You know, we're talking about baby food formula shortages, and disastrous foreign policy.

And you know, $5 a gallon gas, those things aren't really recoverable.

We're not talking about a one-time crisis, or, you know, a bad story that leaked and hurt him.

These are ongoing problems that could create a generational-level problem.

And I heard one reporter say that they're looking at extinction level for some Democrats on the Hill.

- Mitch.

- One of the things that's very interesting here is if Joe Biden is mentally unfit, if people don't think he's able to run for office again, well, you'd think the next best candidate might be the Vice President, but we saw from this poll, Kamala Harris does even worse.

- But did you see California Governor Newsom endorsed her, as being the next President, or run for next time?

- He must not have looked at this poll.

[everyone laughs] Gavin Newsom could be a candidate, but the thing is the Democrats, because they have the incumbent, and the incumbent could run for reelection, we really haven't seen enough of them get out and say, "I'd like to be the next candidate."

- Roy Cooper's been getting an honorable mention, hasn't he?

- Yeah, and you know, he pops up in a lot of these national stories.

I don't know that he has the name recognition outside of the state to really break through a PAC, but he might be a Vice Presidential candidate at some point.

- Well, you know, it'd be smart to put him on a ticket, I think, he's stable, he comes from a big state.

- [Donna] Sure.

- [Marc] A key state.

- Well, and North Carolina's been economically stable for a long time, whether you credit the General Assembly, or the governor, he's been at the helm while it was stable, and while it was growing, and lots of people coming here.

And that name recognition, this day and age for a Democrat, may not be a bad thing.

- Nelson, you endorse that?

- [Nelson] Mm... [everyone laughs] Well, I think- - That sums it up quickly.

Certainly, if you're on the Democratic side, the numbers and where the economy is going, and where we're going globally.

I mean, if you look right now, the Ukraine issue, that looked like it might be a positive for Biden.

You know, in an obviously a terrible way.

Now, an AP Survey came out this week to say just 21% have a great, quote, "A great deal of confidence in the President's ability to handle situation."

- And I've neglected to mention Reuters, it has him at a 36% job approval for Biden, but I wanna move on, talk right back to you.

There are great stories coming out of UNC this week.

Talk to us about it.

- Yes, the class of '22 has graduated, and the Chancellor at Carolina describe them as those who persevered.

If you think about how the country, and the world, have changed since the fall of 2018, the uncertainty of where we're headed, the term "perseverance", the ability to weather storms, overcome the challenges, might be the most valuable lessons for those graduates.

The Chancellor also noted that 788 graduates were first-generation college students.

And when you look at system wide, the UNC system, all the campuses around the state, last year 17%, or some 8,000 students, were first-generation graduates.

And I think that really speaks to the importance of having a society, and building a society, with opportunities for all.

Where you succeed and your ability to move up is based on your merit and having an educational system that will do that.

And I think it's a great story for the US, certainly for... a tremendous strength for North Carolina.

- Talk to us about the pharmacy grant.

- Yes, the READDI Program, that's the Rapidly Emerging Antiviral Drug Development Initiative, General Assembly put in- - Glad you had to say it.

- Yes.

[everyone laughs] The General Assembly put in $18 million, they've leveraged that now with a $65 million federal grant.

And that builds on our ability, both at Chapel Hill, Duke, and other research facilities around the state, to move forward with a whole new class of antiviral drugs to deal with pandemics in the future.

- Donna, weigh-in here, you've had kids that had to persevere.

- I have, I had two college students during COVID.

One was a 2020 graduate, the other faced online school.

And I love graduation season.

I love all the excitement, and the hope for the future.

I am worried though about all of those kids that are not graduating, or maybe had to drop out of college, because they went to online school and they chose a university, because online school doesn't work for them.

And they were faced with a year-and-a-half of online classes, and then trying to gear back up, and pay for college, and security fees for a campus that was closed.

And gym, and tickets, and all the things they had to pay for that they didn't get.

And that's... those are the ones, including my own family, that I worry about this time of year, particularly when I see kids going out into the world.

And there's a lot of kids that may have been left behind.

- Mitch, in retrospect, did lockdowns work?

- Lockdowns, in general, didn't work.

In some cases you had to have 'em, at least for a while, until we figured out how to deal with this, but lockdowns in- - 'Cause you were dealing with the unknown.

- Exactly, but lockdowns in general, certainly for an extended period of time, didn't work.

I think one of the things that's interesting about this university picture, we learned from the Department of Public Instruction about the learning loss that happened in the K12 schools, because of all of the COVID situation, months to perhaps even a year of loss, in some respects.

We don't have similar data from the UNC system, but I'm guessing that there are some students who have been set way back because of this.

- Colin wrap this up about 40 seconds, put it in context.

- Yeah, I mean, this is a situation where you have, on one hand, some good success stories, a first-time graduate.

Some of that's due to the strength of the community college systems in this state.

Some of that's due to other programs that are out there, like the $500 tuition grants that are at several the public universities, but there's a lot of recovery that has to occur.

And some folks are gonna be graduating a few years after they expected to, as a result of all the COVID mess.

- Okay, let's go to the most underreported story of the week, Mitch.

- The John Locke Foundation, my employer, has put out its latest Civitas Poll this week.

And there are a number of interesting findings.

First, the big marque matchup for the election is the US Senate race.

And we have, in this poll, Congressman Ted Budd, the Republican, leading Democrat Cheri Beasley, 44% to 42%, with 2/3 party candidates who are included in this, and they get about 2.5% together.

In the two match-ups for the State Supreme Court- - What's that gotta be, about a $20 million race, you think?

- Oh, it's gonna be a big race.

We know a lot of money's gonna flow in- - Excuse me for interrupting.

- Yeah, no, a lot of money's definitely gonna flow into this race.

In the two State Supreme Court seats, which will be important for determining control of that court, Republicans in good shape now, with four and six-point leads.

And then we also, because it's been in the headlines, both nationally and on the state level, looked at abortion, and asked some questions about abortion.

Very nuanced views, more people say they're pro-choice than pro-life, and 51% don't want the Supreme Court to overrule Roe.

But if you ask people details about what they think about abortion, only 23% think it should be legal in all circumstances, 70% would accept some sort of restrictions.

- Colin, underreported?

- Yeah, so this is probably bad news for state Democrats.

The North Carolina Green Party is within spitting distance of getting their candidates back on the ballot for the fall.

They have to get at least about 13,000 validated signatures from registered voters to have the status, in which they can put their candidates on the fall ballot.

This is a state where it's really hard for third parties to get that kind of traction.

And they're getting really close, we'll know in a couple weeks if they've got it or not.

But that could pull a couple of percentage points away from Cheri Beasley in the fall, because the Greens do have a US Senate candidate, who may pull some support from folks on the left.

- Donna?

- Very interesting.

One of the things that I've known anecdotally, we've talked about a lot on here, is that north... the real estate market in North Carolina is really hot.

Prices are going high, there's multiple offers for every house.

Well, it turns out that we are actually in the top 10, two of North Carolina cities are in the top 10 nationally for real estate.

In the real estate market, Raleigh is number three nationally, and Charlotte is number nine in 2022 rankings.

- Which begs the question, how are young people gonna get into the market?

- Well, exactly, and I think that's one of the questions.

- And all these new folks coming in.

I mean, they're coming in from Burlington and everywhere else.

They can't afford to be in Raleigh, right?

- It is tough, it is really difficult.

And I think that a lot of what we're seeing is a regulatory environment around land use.

And some of these other things is preventing some of that housing from becoming more available.

- Nelson.

- President Biden in Japan, making news this week, including his claim that higher gas prices are part of an incredible transition away from fossil fuels.

Which really raises the question, can American families prosper without affordable gas and oil?

And the answer, frankly, is no.

Our economy is based on low-cost energy that we can readily access here in the United States.

We've yet to see a realistic plan for how to transition away from gasoline and diesel, that is affordable, that addresses the complex global supply chain issues.

Necessary if you're gonna go to an all-electric fleet.

- But people should not be surprised, because he stated on a campaign trail he was gonna end fossil fuels.

- That's right, and their problem is they have technology, but they don't have a plan to actually make that happen.

You don't have the base generation, and- What is he trying to do, change habits?

Everybody buy an EV car?

- Well, they're trying to... they're talking about everybody buying an EV car.

When you don't have the copper, you don't have the palladium, you don't have the metals that you need, a number of which are actually mined in places like Belarus and Russia, to be able to make that happen.

They would be far better off if they focused on, for example, hybrid cars.

You can take one battery for a fully EV car, break it up, break those components up, and build four or five hybrids.

That gets you to a cleaner environment in a much quicker way, in a much cheaper way, maximize our natural gas, maximize our nuclear power for base generation.

But there's really no plan out there for that right now.

- I think that energy's gonna be a huge issue as we come into the midterms.

Okay, let's go to the Lightning Round.

Who's up and who's down this week, Mitch?

- My who's up is Eddie Buffalo, who is the Secretary of the North Carolina Department of Public Safety.

Had a confirmation hearing before the Senate, and really got high marks all the way around, including his handling of a controversial, law enforcement-involved shooting in Pasquotank County.

My who's down?

Perhaps after a while, he could get this award named after him.

Madison Cawthorn, not only did he lose his primary election, but now the 4th US Circuit Court of Appeals has said, "Yes, the State Board of Elections can take you off the ballot if it finds against you."

- Okay, my friend, Colin?

- So who's up this week?

Allen Buansi is a guy, a Democrat in Chapel Hill, who won his House primary.

Normally he'd have to wait until January to start serving the State House, but he's actually gonna start next week, because longtime State Rep, Verla Insko, is gonna step down ahead of the end of her term.

Down, I've got a Confederate General Braxton Bragg, his name is likely to be coming off of Fort Bragg in the coming months, replaced with Fort Liberty.

Obviously his- - How does that happen in Congress?

- The recommendation goes from a naming committee, to Congress, which I think finalizes it.

And that ought to happen by the end of the year.

- Donna, who's up and who's down this week?

- Up, I'm gonna say parents who want more access to what's going on in the classroom.

We talked a little bit about this, a Parents' Bill of Rights.

This particular bill would require schools to make that... come up with a system to make parents aware, of everything from curriculum, to healthcare, to what's happening with their children.

- [Marc] Would it be online?

- Well, it depends on the school system, and that's gonna be a heavy lift for some of these schools that are strapped with, you know, high turnover, or teachers retiring, things like that.

So getting that process in place would be a challenge of course, but it's something a lot of parents have been calling for across the country.

My down, Disney, their stock plummeted this week, and really dragged some of the DOW with it.

- Okay.

- And I think that it seems like people are voting with their feet, and Disney underestimated its core customer.

- Nelson, who's up and who's down this week?

- Regulations, whether it's energy production, the environment, labor issues, immigration, the Biden administration has really empowered the bureaucracy to reassert its power, with an estimated cost to the economy.

Now, well over $200 billion in new rules and regulations, you appreciate that, Donna.

Who's down?

Gas prices, possibly.

Look for the President to have the option to ban the export of US oil for up to a year.

As gas prices rise this summer, expect more and more pressure on the President to have an export ban.

It would drop oil prices in the US, but it would infuriate our allies.

- Mitch, headline next week.

- Memorial day takes on special meaning as Americans watch Ukraine fight for freedom.

- Let me ask you this is, are we $40 million... Are we starting to get into mission creep in Ukraine, somewhat similar to Iraq?

- It certainly seems like it could be that way.

The Biden administration seem to be very muddled on Ukraine.

- Headline next week?

- State House starts to move to legalize sports betting in the state.

- Does it happen?

- It sounds like it's got the money... the odds are good for it.

[everyone laughs] - Headlight next week?

- I think the Senate will likely pass their Medicaid expansion bill they proposed this week, but then the pressure really gets on the House to try and follow suit.

But Speaker Moore says he doesn't see the appetite.

- Well, Moore wants to wait till the long session, right?

That's right- - Okay, headline next week.

- More to come.

Well, to borrow from William Faulkner, it's going to be a long, hot summer.

- Okay, that's it for us.

Please pray for the families in West Texas.

And on Memorial Day, please take time to honor those who gave their lives in defense of freedom.

[dramatic music] - [Voiceover] Major funding for "Front Row" was provided by Robert L. Luddy.

Additional funding provided by Patricia and Koo Yuen, through the Yuen Foundation, committed to bridging cultural differences in our communities.

And by... Funding for the Lightning Round provided by Boddie-Noell Foundation, NC Realtors, Mary Louise and John Burress, Rifenburg Construction, and Helen Laughery.

A complete list of funders can be found at pbsnc.org/frontrow.

[dramatic music]