GAUTAM: I AM GAUTAM MUKUNDA.

TONIGHT, AS THE PRESIDENT AND SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE TRY TO PUSH THROUGH A COMPROMISE BILL BEFORE DISASTER STRIKES, WHAT HAVE WE LOST IN THE PROCESS AND WHY DOES THIS KEEP HAPPENING?

FORMER PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR DAVID GERGEN WEIGHS IN ON THE REPUBLICANS JUMPING INTO THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE AND WHAT IT SAYS ABOUT THE CURRENT STATE OF THE GOP.

AS TIME RUNS OUT BEFORE THE U.S. IS SET TO DEFAULT ON ITS COMMITMENTS, THE COMPROMISED DEAL IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CONGRESS.

DESPITE PRESIDENT BIDEN'’S REFUSAL TO NEGOTIATE ON ANY PROPOSALS ATTACHED TO THE DEBT LIMIT, HE AND KEVIN MCCARTHY HAVE AGREED TO A SERIES OF MEASURES THEY HOPE WILL SECURE ENOUGH VOTES TO PASS.

THE 99 PAGE BILL WOULD SUSPEND THE LIMIT UNTIL 2025 AND ALSO INCLUDES BUDGET CUTS TO THE IRS, WORK REQUIREMENTS FOR SNAP BENEFITS, AND THE RETURN OF STUDENT LOAN DEBT PAYMENTS.

NOW, BOTH LEADERS ARE WALKING A TIGHT ROPE TO TRY AND WIN THEIR RESPECTIVE PARTIES FIRST -- SUPPORT WHILE NOT ALIENATING LAWMAKERS ON THE OTHER SIDE AND SPEAKER MCCARTHY HAS ALREADY GOTTEN A LOT OF PUSHBACK FROM A HANDFUL OF HIS FELLOW HOUSE REPUBLICANS ALTHOUGH HE AND HIS LEADERSHIP TEAM BELIEVE THEY WILL HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PUSH THIS THROUGH.

>> THIS WAS A MISTAKE.

WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO RETHINK IT ALL.

>> HOW MUCH CONFIDENCE DO YOU HAVE IN THE SPEAKER RIGHT NOW?

>> ZERO.

WHAT BASIS IS THERE FOR CONFIDENCE?

>> WHILE SPEAKER MCCARTHY IS CONFIDENT, AT THE TIME OF THIS TAPING, HOUSE LAWMAKERS HAVE YET TO MAKE THE FINAL CALL BUT EVEN IF THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE TO PASS THE BILL IN TIME TO AVOID A DEFAULT, THE CHAOS OF A LAST-MINUTE COMPROMISE COULD STILL PROMPT INVESTORS TO QUESTION THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF THE UNITED STATES, THREATENING THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL SYSTEM.

JOINING ME NOW TO BREAK DOWN THE WINNERS, THE LOSERS, AND THE BROADER CONSEQUENCES OF THESE CRISES ARE MICHAEL, FORMER ASSOCIATE COUNCIL TO GEORGE W. BUSH AND RONALD REAGAN, AND FORMER COMMISSIONER FOR GEORGE W. BUSH AND BARACK OBAMA.

IN LOUISE SCHEINER, SENIOR FELLOW FOR HARVARD UNIVERSITY WITH THE HUTCHINS CENTER AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION.

THANK YOU.

SO, MIKE, WHO WON THE STANDOFF?

MICHAEL: THEY ARE NOT GOING TO START VOTING UNTIL LATER IN THE BROADCAST, BUT I THINK THAT THE PRESIDENT, KEVIN MCCARTHY, THEY ARE THE BIG WINNERS ON THIS.

THERE WAS A POINT IN TIME WHERE I STARTED WORKING IN THE SENATE 45 YEARS AGO.

WE WOULD NOT BE TALKING ABOUT THIS.

IT WOULD BE ASSUMED THAT IT WOULD HAPPEN AND WE WOULD NOT HAVE GOTTEN THIS CLOSE SO THERE IS ALWAYS SOME UNPREDICTABILITY GIVEN THE FRACTIOUS NATURE OF THE CONGRESS THESE DAYS BUT IF YOU LOOK AT WHO IS SIDING WITH MCCARTHY, SOME OF THE FREEDOM CONGRESS -- CAUCUS IS MAKING A LOT OF NOISE.

MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE, JIM JORDAN, SOME OF THE PEOPLE YOU MIGHT EXPECT TO BREAK RANKS ARE NOT BREAKING RANKS.

THERE WILL BE A HANDFUL OF VERY CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS POSTURING PROBABLY FOR THEIR VOTERS.

IT WOULD TAKE A LOT MORE ON THE LEFT TO HAVE A REAL PROBLEM AND RIGHT NOW, AT LEAST AT MY LAST CHECK, THERE IS ONLY ONE DEMOCRAT, ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ, WHO HAS COME OUT AGAINST THE BILL.

MY SENSE IS THAT IT'’S GOING TO PASS AND IT IS GOING TO PASS BY A PRETTY BIG MARGIN AND I DO NOT THINK YOU WILL SEE QUITE THE SAME FIREWORKS IN THE SENATE SO THIS IS GOING TO PASS AND IT IS A GREAT THING FOR THE COUNTRY BECAUSE ASIDE FROM THE DEVASTATION THAT LETTING THIS HAPPEN WOULD CAUSE TO SO MANY PEOPLE AND PROGRAMS, IT HURTS US INTERNATIONALLY AT A TIME WHERE WE CANNOT AFFORD TO DO THAT.

>> AS WE ALL ARE AS FOR A MOMENT , LOUISE, WHAT DO YOU THINK?

DO YOU AGREE WITH MIKE ON WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW?

LOUISE: I DO AGREE.

THEY BOTH WON, WHICH IS ODD, BUT DARCY SHOWED HE CAN ACTUALLY LEAD THE REPUBLICANS AND DO SOMETHING IN A FAIRLY ORDERLY FASHION.

WHEN YOU SAW HOW MANY VOTES IT TOOK TO GET HIM TO SPEAKER, YOU ARE WONDERING, CAN HE GET ANYTHING THROUGH?

AND THE ANSWER IS THAT HE CAN.

THAT WAS A WIN FOR HIM IN THAT RESPECT.

HE CAN GOVERN.

PROVIDE AN, I MEAN, MANY PEOPLE WERE VERY WORRIED FROM WHAT WE HEARD WOULD BE IN THE FINAL OUTCOME AND THEN WE ARE ACTUALLY VERY PLEASANTLY SURPRISED AT HOW LITTLE HE HAD TO GIVE UP IN ORDER TO GET THIS DEAL.

I THINK, YOU KNOW, BIDEN SHOWS HE'’S ACTUALLY A REALLY GOOD NEGOTIATOR IN WAYS THAT KEEP ON SURPRISING PEOPLE.

GAUTAM: THE ESTIMATES FOR THE SNAP BENEFITS MUST RESET UNDER THIS DEAL, SNAP SPENDING IS GOING TO GO OUT, NOT DOWN, WHICH IS SORT OF A REMARKABLE OUTCOME THAT NO ONE SAW COMING.

MICHAEL: THERE'’S SPECIAL BENEFITS THEY PUT IN.

GAUTAM: IF WE THINK THAT THIS BILL WAS GOING TO PASS, WHAT DOES IT SAY IN THE LARGER PERSPECTIVE IS THAT, YOU KNOW, A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT FRACTION OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AND THE PAST AND MOST LIKELY FUTURE LEADER OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY SEEMED TO BE EITHER OPEN TO DEFAULTING OR MORE THAN HAPPY TO USE THE THREAT OF DEFAULT ESSENTIALLY TO TAKE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY HOSTAGE, TO GET THEIR POLICY PRIORITIES?

IS IT EVEN REASONABLE FOR THAT TO BE -- TREASURY BONDS TO BE VIEWED AS A RISKLESS ASSET?

LOUISE: CLEARLY, THE FACT THAT WE FLIRTED WITH THE DEFAULT HAS TO GIVE YOU A LITTLE BIT OF PAUSE ALTHOUGH IT WAS ALWAYS GOING TO BE A TECHNICAL DEFAULT.

IT WASN'’T LIKE THE U.S.

DIDN'’T HAVE THE ABILITY TO PAY.

THERE COULD BE TIMES WHEN THINGS WERE NOT PAID ON TIME POTENTIALLY.

WE DON'’T REALLY KNOW THAT.

MY GUESS IS THEY WOULD CONTINUE TO PAY INTEREST ON THE BONDS NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE DEBT CEILING BUT WE HAVE NOT IN THAT PLAY OUT SO I THINK THAT IS A PROBLEM AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THIS EPISODE, IT'’S NOT CLEAR TO ME WHICH WAY IT GOES BECAUSE THEY FLIRTED WITH DEFAULT IN A WAY THAT REALLY WAS CLOSER -- PEOPLE WERE MORE WORRIED ABOUT IT THAN EVER BEFORE AND WHAT DID THEY REALLY GET?

NOT MUCH MORE THAN THEY WOULD HAVE GOTTEN FROM THE REGULAR NEGOTIATION OVER THE APPROPRIATIONS SO WHETHER OR NOT THIS MEANS THAT THIS IS NOW AN EVEN BETTER TARGET THAN BEFORE OR WHETHER OR NOT YOU REALIZE, YOU KNOW, IT IS NOT REALLY THAT GOOD OF A LEVERAGE POINT BECAUSE EVERYONE KNOWS YOU DON'’T WANT TO DEFAULT SO YOU WILL GET THE DEAL.

IN THE FUTURE, IT MAKES IT MORE OR LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL GO THROUGH THIS KIND OF THING AGAIN.

>> I THINK WE WILL SEE MANY THINGS LIKE THIS.

THE CONGRESS IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE WAY IT USED TO BE AND I THINK THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS -- REASONS FOR THAT.

NO GOOD DEED GOES UNPUNISHED.

WATERGATE MADE MEMBERS OF CONGRESS INDEPENDENT ACTORS WHO HAD TO SPEND A LOT OF THEIR TIME RAISING MONEY AND NO LONGER DEPENDENT AS THEY WERE BEFORE.

SO YOU GET PEOPLE WHO YOU DO NOT HAVE TO GIVE IN TO REASON AND PEOPLE WHO SELF SELECT THAT THEY ARE WILLING TO DO THIS FOR THEIR CAREERS AND THAT IS REALLY DIFFICULT AND THE OTHER THING IS DAVID STOCKMAN IN THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION REALLY PUSHED THROUGH THE OMNIBUS BILL MECHANISM AND YOU KNOW, IT WORKED FINE FOR HIM BUT THE PROBLEM IS YOU START BREAKING DOWN THE PROCESS IN THE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEES.

I WAS LISTENING TO MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE EARLIER TODAY AND I ACTUALLY THOUGHT SHE WAS, YOU KNOW, PRETTY SENSIBLE.

ONE OF THE THINGS SHE SAID WAS -- SHE SAID SHE WAS VERY HAPPY ABOUT WAS GOING BACK TO EACH OF THE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEES AND REALLY APPROPRIATING.

I AGREE WITH HER ON THAT.

WE NEED A CONGRESS THAT RESPECTS TRADITIONAL PROCESS MORE BECAUSE IT WORKED AN AWFUL LOT BETTER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN DONE LATELY.

>> I JUST WONDER ABOUT THAT BECAUSE THE TRADITIONAL PROCESS WORKED WHEN CONGRESS WAS FILLED WITH THE TRADITIONAL PEOPLE WHO YOU DESCRIBE SO IS THERE NOT A TENSION BETWEEN THE TWO THINGS YOU JUST SET UP?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

AT SOME POINT, WHETHER THIS IS GOING TO WORK OR NOT, WILL TURN ON VOTERS DECIDING THAT THEY WANT A DIFFERENT TYPE OF PERSON THAN WHAT THEY ARE GETTING AND I JUST HOPE WITH WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN SEEING FROM A NUMBER OF THEIR MEMBERS, BOTH PARTIES, YOU KNOW, ALL REGIONS IN THE COUNTRY PRETTY MUCH, THAT THEY WILL START BEING A LITTLE MORE CAREFUL AND START TAKING STEPS TO TRY AND MAKE SURE THAT A HIGHER CALIBER OF CANDIDATE STARTS COMING FORWARD.

GAUTAM: AS WE GO FORWARD WITH THIS, ASSUMING IT PASSES, AND I DON'’T THINK ANYBODY KNOWS WHAT HAPPENS IF IT DOESN'’T, DOES THIS SUGGEST KEVIN MCCARTHY HAS INCREASED HIS CONTROL OVER HIS CAUCUS?

ARE WE LIKELY TO SEE MORE DEALS STRUCK BETWEEN THE PRESIDENT WHO HAS MORE EXPERIENCE IN THE CONGRESS THAN ANY TWO PREVIOUS PRESIDENTS COMBINED OR IS THIS A ONE-OFF DRIVEN BY THE THREAT OF CATASTROPHE?

LOUISE: THEY WILL HAVE TO GO THROUGH THE APPROPRIATIONS PROCESS AND THIS BILL BASICALLY SETS A HIGH INCENTIVE FOR THEM TO COMPLETE THE APPROPRIATIONS PROCESS SO I THINK THAT WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN BECAUSE IF THEY DO NOT DO IT AND THEY DO THE OMNIBUS, THEN THE CAPS THAT HAPPEN ARE LOWER THAN WHAT THEY AGREED ON SO THERE IS A BIG INCENTIVE FOR THEM NOT TO BE A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN SO IT REALLY REMOVES THE WORRY ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE FALL TO SOME EXTENT BUT I THINK AFTER THAT, WE ARE IN AN ELECTION SEASON WITH A VERY POLARIZED CONGRESS, VERY LOWRISE COUNTRY, AND NOTHING MAJOR IS GOING TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE ELECTION SO IN THAT SENSE, I THINK IT HAD TO BE DONE SO IT GOT DONE BUT THEY ARE NOT ABOUT TO GO SOLVE OTHER LONG-TERM PROBLEMS AND AGREE ON STUFF.

I DO NOT THINK THAT IS IN THE CARDS.

>> I THINK THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

>> THE NEXT BILL THAT RAISES TO THE LEVEL OF CATASTROPHE THAT THEY NEED TO THINK ABOUT IS UKRAINE FUNDING.

ARE WE LIKELY TO SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR WITH THAT OR IS NOT GOING TO PLAY OUT A VERY DIFFERENT SET?

>> THAT IS A TOUGHER ONE.

I THINK THERE ARE STARTING TO BE AN INCREASING NUMBER OF REPUBLICANS WHO ARE UNEASY ABOUT UKRAINE FUNDING.

YOU GET A PARALLEL MOVEMENT IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AS WELL.

RIGHT NOW, I STILL THINK THERE IS A SOLID MAJORITY TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UKRAINE AND FOR EVEN THOSE WHO HAVE MISGIVINGS, BACKING OFF NOW WOULD BE SO CATASTROPHIC TO OUR INTERNATIONAL PRESTIGE THAT I THINK, YOU KNOW, THE SWING VOTES, SUCH AS THERE ARE IN THE CONGRESS, ARE JUST NOT GOING TO GO DOWN THAT ROUTE SO I THINK IT WILL PROBABLY BE A CLOSER VOTE THEN THE VOTE TONIGHT IN THE HOUSE.

I DO NOT THINK THE VOTE TONIGHT IN THE HOUSE IS ULTIMATELY GOING TO BE THAT CLOSE.

I THINK THE UKRAINE VOTE WOULD PROBABLY BE CLOSER BUT I THINK IT WILL STILL GO THROUGH.

LOUISE: SOUNDS REASONABLE TO ME.

IT IS NOT SOMETHING I FOLLOW THAT CAREFULLY.

I WILL DEFER TO YOUR WISDOM.

GAUTAM: THAT ME ASK YOU THEN, AS WE THINK ABOUT THIS LONGER-TERM, FINANCIAL MARKETS SORT OF TRADITIONALLY THINK OF THE UNITED STATES AS THEIR FLIGHT TO SAFETY.

THERE WAS SPECULATION THAT IF WE DID GO INTO DEFAULT, THE TREASURY BILLS WOULD BECOME -- PEOPLE WOULD FLEE TO TREASURY BILLS BECAUSE WHEN THE REST OF THE WORLD COLLAPSES, THE U.S. IS USUALLY STILL STANDING BUT ONE WOULD ARGUE WE ARE ABUSING THAT PRIVILEGE PRETTY HARSHLY AT THIS POINT AND HAVE DONE IT MULTIPLE TIMES.

HOW LONG DO YOU EXPECT IT TO LAST AND IF IT'’S OURS TO FADE, WHAT DOES THAT LOOK LIKE FOR THE UNITED STATES?

LOUISE: I THINK WE HAVE DONE IT MULTIPLE TIMES.

IT IS SURPRISING THAT EVEN AFTER 2011 AND THE S&P DOWNGRADE, IT REALLY DID NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH IN TERMS OF THE TREASURER BEING ABLE TO BAR AT THE LOWEST RATES IN THE WORLD.

THE STRENGTH COMES NOT JUST FROM SORT OF WHAT HAS HAPPENED BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY OVERALL AND THAT IS NOT AFFECTED BY THIS.

I THINK IT'’S GOING TO BE A SLOW LOSS IF WE LOSE IT, THIS EXTRAORDINARY PRIVILEGE.

WHAT HAPPENS IF WE LOSE THE EXTRA ORDINARY PRIVILEGE QUESTION MARC IT ISN'’T THE END OF THE WORLD, HONESTLY.

IT WOULD MEAN SOMEWHAT HIGHER BORROWING RATES.

SO WE CALCULATED THAT IF WE LOST THAT EXTRA SORT OF SPECIAL PART OF BEING THE UNITED STATES AS OPPOSED TO JUST BEING AN ADVANCED ECONOMY, IT WOULD COST US ABOUT $800 BILLION OVER 10 YEARS SO THAT'’S, YOU KNOW, REAL MONEY, BUT IT'’S NOT DEVASTATING.

I THINK THE WORRY REALLY IS WHAT DOES THAT PROCESS LOOK LIKE?

IF WE HIT THE DEBT CEILING AND ALL OF A SUDDEN, TREASURIES, THE FOUNDATION OF THE SYSTEMS, QUICKLY BECAME VIEWED AS RISKY.

THERE WILL BE ALL KINDS OF SIDE EFFECTS THAT WERE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT.

THE REAL DANGER OF DOING SOMETHING THAT QUICKLY CHANGES THE PERCEPTION BUT THIS SORT OF SLOW EROSION OVER TIME COULD HAPPEN AND I AM NOT SURE -- IT IS NOT WHAT WE WANT.

IT'’S NOT GOOD FOR THE COUNTRY AND IT'’S NOT GOOD FOR THE U.S.'’S STATUS IN THE WORLD TO BASICALLY HAVE ITS POLITICS BE SO DYSFUNCTIONAL, NOT ITS ECONOMICS, BUT IT'’S POLITICS BE SO DYSFUNCTIONAL THAT IT LOSES THAT.

IT IS NOT GOOD BUT IT IS NOT THE END OF THE WORLD I THINK.

GAUTAM: NO ONE WHO LIVED THROUGH 2008 WOULD WANT TO GO THROUGH IT AGAIN.

WHAT STRIKES ME IS, TRADITIONALLY, ONE OF THE LOUDEST VOICES HAS BEEN THE BIG DONORS FROM WALL STREET, BIG FINANCE.

WHY AREN'’T THEY SPEAKING UP?

MICHAEL: I THINK THAT THEY ARE AFRAID OF BACKLASH.

THERE IS A NEW POPULISM ON BOTH THE RIGHT AND THE LEFT RIGHT NOW AND I THINK THERE IS A SENSE, AND I THINK THAT THEY ARE SMART, THAT IT DOES NOT DO ANY GOOD AND IT COULD DO SOME REAL HARM AND I THINK THEIR INFLUENCE IS A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN IT USED TO BE, THAT THE BIG MONEY IS COMING IN FROM THE NEW INDUSTRIES A LOT NOW, TOO.

ELECTRONICS AND BIOTECH AND THINGS LIKE THAT SO YES.

GAUTAM: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US TODAY.

MICHAEL: THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

LOUISE: A PLEASURE.

GAUTAM: THE ALREADY CROWDED FIELD OF REPUBLICANS JUMPING INTO THE 2024 RACE FOR PRESIDENT IS ABOUT TO GET EVEN BIGGER.

MIKE PENCE IS REPORTEDLY PLANNING TO JUMP IN THE RACE NEXT WEEK.

AS IS CHRIS CHRISTIE.

HE WILL JOIN RON DESANTIS, NIKKI HALEY, AND A SLEW OF OTHER CONTENDERS.

IN ADDITION, PORTS, TO FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP, WHOSE DEDICATED PACE HAS NOT BEEN DETERRED BY HIS TWO IMPEACHMENTS , CULPABILITY IN THE ATTACK ON THE CAPITAL, EFFORTS TO OVERTHROW THE ELECTION, AND SEVERAL ONGOING CRIMINAL AND CIVIL LAWSUITS.

CNN'’S LATEST POLLING HAS TRUMP LEADING THE FIELD WITH 53% SUPPORT, MORE THAN DOUBLED TO SANTOS, HIS CLOSEST OPPONENT, WITH 26%.

IT IS A TRUMP NOMINATION ALREADY A FOREGONE CONCLUSION?

WHAT DO THESE NUMBERS SAY ABOUT THE STATE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY?

I AM JOINED BY DAVID, WHO SERVED AS AN ADVISOR TO PRESIDENT TRUMP BOTH PARTIES.

NIXON, FORD, REAGAN, AND CLINTON, AND IS NOW WITH THE HARVARD SCHOOL.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US TODAY.

DAVID: PLEASURE TO BE HERE.

LOOKING FORWARD TO WHAT YOU HAVE TO SAY ABOUT PICKING PRESIDENTS.

YOU ARE THE GUY WHO WROTE THE BOOK ABOUT PICKING PRESIDENTS.

GAUTAM: THANK YOU, DAVID.

I COULD NOT HAVE DONE IT WITHOUT TALKING TO YOU ABOUT IT.

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE CURRENT STATE OF THE REPUBLICAN FIELD?

DAVID: THEY HAD NO CLEAR FRONT RUNNER BUT I DO AGREE WITH YOUR ANALYSIS THAT DONALD TRUMP IS BENEFITING FROM THE WAY SO MANY PEOPLE ARE JUMPING IN.

2-1 FOR REPUBLICANS, TRUMP OVER DESANTIS.

WHERE DO THEY GO?

WHERE DO OTHER PEOPLE LIKE NIKKI HALEY OR TIM SCOTT, WHERE DO THEY GO TO PICK UP VOTES?

THEY HAVE TO PEEL THEM AWAY FROM TRUMP.

IT IS HARD TO SEE ANY OF THESE CANDIDATES DOING THAT IN A MASSIVE FASHION SO I THINK AN APPEAL THIS BIG GIVES A HEAVY, HEAVYWEIGHT ON THE SIDE OF DONALD TRUMP COMING THE NOMINEE AGAIN.

GAUTAM: IS THERE ANYWAY FOR ONE OF HIS RIVALS TO PEEL AWAY VOTES FROM TRUMP WITHOUT ALIENATING THEM AND ENSURING HE OR SHE HAS NO CHANCE AT THE NOMINATION THEMSELVES?

DAVID: NO WAY TO TAKE IT AWAY FROM THEM THAT THE REAL HOPE IS THAT TRUMP GOES TO JAIL OR SOMETHING HAPPENS.

YOU CANNOT FORCE IT YOURSELF BUT YOU WANT TO BE THERE.

YOU WANT TO HAVE YOUR CANDIDATE IN THE FIELD IN CASE SOMETHING DOES HAPPEN AND YOU KNOW SOME WAY THAT TRUMP GETS BLIND-SIDED OR WHATEVER IT MAY BE.

BY NO MEANS DO WE HAVE A CERTAIN NOMINEE BUT I THINK THE WINDS ARE BLOWING THAT DIRECTION PLAY STRONGLY.

GAUTAM: YOU DO NOT GET A WIN UNLESS YOU ARE PLAYING IN THE GAME.

DAVID: ABSOLUTELY, ABSOLUTELY.

WE THOUGHT IT WAS GOING TO -- IT IS FLUID.

THESE RACES TEND TO BE FLUID THESE DAYS.

WHO WOULD IMAGINE THAT JIMMY CARTER WOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED WAY BACK WHEN, FOR EXAMPLE?

NOBODY GAVE HIM ANY CHANCE.

BARACK OBAMA, NOBODY THOUGHT HE WOULD BE THE NOMINEE.

HE CAME OUT OF NOWHERE IN SOME FASHION.

THAT CAN HAPPEN HERE.

I THINK THE SURPRISE IN THE LAST TWO OR THREE WEEKS IS DISSENT'’S HAS LOOKED SO INVULNERABLE.

HE WAS THE MOST EFFECTIVE POLITICAL LEADER THAT WE HAVE SEEN.

HE WON MASSIVELY IN FLORIDA BUT HE HAS BEEN STUMBLING AS HE GETS INTO THE NATIONAL ARENA.

HE IS NOT AS WELL-VERSED VERSED ON THE INTERNATIONAL SIDE AS HE IS ON THE DOMESTIC AND THAT COMES THROUGH.

HE MAKES MISTAKES.

GAUTAM: IT IS STRIKING.

IN HIS RECENT SORT OF STATEMENTS, DESANTIS DECLARED HE WANTS TO PARDON THE JANUARY 6 THE ATTACKERS.

DAVID: THAT IS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT.

GAUTAM: IN HIS BOOK, HE ALSO SAYS HIS CRITICISM OF DONALD TRUMP IS THAT HE WAS NOT EFFECTIVE ENOUGH AT USING THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE, THE FBI, AND THE IRS TO ATTACK HIS POLITICAL ENEMIES SO WHAT DOES IT SAY ABOUT THE CURRENT STATE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY THAT 75% OF THE PEOPLE WHO SAY THEY WILL VOTE ARE SUPPORTING A CANDIDATE WHO THINKS THAT THEY SHOULD PARDON THE ELECTORS AND USE THE ORGANS OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT TO ATTACK THEIR POLITICAL OPPOSITION?

DAVID: IT IS SELF-DESTRUCTIVE.

I DO THINK IT PAYS VERY LITTLE HEED TO THE CONSTITUTION AND THE NORMAL ORDER OF THINGS.

I DON'’T THINK IT DISQUALIFIES BUT IT COMES DARN CLOSE.

I DO THINK THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS IN A TAILSPIN.

IT IS NOT GOING TO GET OUT.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE ONLY WAY THEY WILL REALLY GET BACK INTO POWER IS FOR THE DEMOCRATS TO LOSE TO -- IF THE REPUBLICANS SEE THE DEMOCRATS LOSE TWO OR THREE INTRO AND WHAT AN OPPORTUNITY IT IS.

WE ARE REALLY IN STRANGE TIMES.

WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS IN OUR LIFETIME.

IT LOOKED TO ME LIKE THIS KIND OF ALMOST NONCHALANCE TOWARD OUR NORMAL FUNCTIONING OF A DEMOCRACY.

AS A RESULT OF THAT, WE ARE IN A SITUATION WHERE WE ARE IN DECLINE AROUND THE WORLD AND THIS DEBT CRISIS HAS NOT HAD ANY GREAT CONTENT FOR US.

GAUTAM: IF YOU WERE STEERING ONE OF THE CHALLENGERS TO TRUMP, THE NIKKEI DESANTIS CAMPAIGN, LET'’S SAY, WHAT ADVICE WOULD YOU GIVE HIM OR HER?

DAVID: READ THE CONSTITUTION.

THAT IS FOR STARTERS.

I UNDERSTAND WHAT THE NORMS ARE THAT SURROUND THE CONSTITUTION.

STAND UP FOR THE INSTITUTIONS OF GOVERNMENT AND DEMOCRACY THAT NEED MORE ATTENTION AND GET AWAY FROM THESE CULTURAL ISSUES.

THEY MAY BE FOUND IN A SANDBOX BUT THEY DON'’T GO TO THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THIS COUNTRY CAN SURVIVE AS A DEMOCRACY AND WE NEED ONE OR TWO PEOPLE WHO ARE JUST DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING.

YOU KNOW, CAN ANY ONE OF THESE PEOPLE DO IT?

CAN HE COME OUT WITH HIS OPTIMISM?

HE IS SOMEONE WHO COULD POTENTIALLY SURPRISE.

I THINK NIKKI HALEY IS A STRONG CANDIDATE TO BE THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL -- ON THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL TICKET.

SHE IS A GOOD POLITICIAN IN HER OWN RIGHT AND WAY DOWN DEEP, DOESN'’T BELIEVE IN A LOT OF THE NONSENSE THAT IS GOING ON.

SO THERE ARE PEOPLE IN THE FIGHT WHO COULD SURPRISE.

I THINK AT THE MOMENT, THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH TRUMP BETWEEN HERE IN NOVEMBER AND WHAT HAPPENS TO DESANTIS.

GAUTAM: I MEAN, THE ADVICE TO GIVE -- THE ADVICE TO SORT OF PAY ATTENTION TO THE CONSTITUTION, WE WOULD HOPE THAT EVERY CANDIDATE DOES THAT.

OBVIOUSLY, NOT ALL OF THEM DO.

IS THAT A PATH TO VICTORY?

IT MIGHT MAKE ME A BETTER PRESIDENT BUT NOT NECESSARILY A BETTER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE.

DAVID: IT MAY NOT MAKE YOU MORE ELECTABLE IN THE BEGINNING BUT IT LEAVES YOU WITH A BETTER LEGACY OVER TIME AND SOMETIMES, WHEN YOU PERSEVERE, YOU CAN MAKE -- JOHN MCCAIN FOR EXAMPLE, THERE WAS SOMETHING HONORABLE ABOUT JOHN MCCAIN THAT WE CONTINUE TO SEE TODAY.

HE WAS OUT THERE IN A PRETTY LONELY PLACE FOR A WHILE BUT HE TOOK IT IN STRIDE AND WITH GOOD GRACE AND WE JUST DO NOT SEE THAT CANDIDATE OUT THERE.

WE DO NOT SEE A PERSON LIKE THAT.

DESANTIS IS OBVIOUSLY A SHREWD POLITICIAN.

HE'’S GOT A LOT OF GUTS.

HIS VIEWS ON ABORTION, HIS VIEWS ON SOME OF THESE OTHER THINGS, ARE GOING TO DISQUALIFY HIM IN THE EYES OF MOST AMERICAN VOTERS VIEW -- BEFORE THIS IS OVER IN THE EYES OF MOST AMERICAN VOTERS.

WE WANT A PRESIDENT WHO IS EFFECTIVE IN CARRYING OUT THE CONSTITUTION, NOT SOMEONE WHO IS EFFECTIVE IN SQUASHING IT.

GAUTAM: YOU HAVE NO MORE PRESENCE -- PRESIDENTS THAN ALMOST ANYONE.

WHEN I LOOK AT MIKE PENCE WHO IS ABOUT TO DECLARE AND IS JUST DECLARING NOW, I MEAN, HIS FORMER BOSS WAVED UP A MOB THAT CHANTED "HANG MIKE PENCE" AS THEY STORMED THE CAPITAL AND HE HAS ESSENTIALLY REFUSED TO CRITICIZE TRUMP FOR THAT.

FOR WHAT SEEMS TO BE THE SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS PRIVILEGE OF FINISHING NINTH IN THE IOWA CAUCUSES WHICH IS ABOUT WHERE HE IS.

WHAT DOES THAT TELL US ABOUT HIM AND THE OTHER PEOPLE AROUND HIM?

DAVID: THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION.

I THINK MIKE PENCE IS ONE OF THE MORE HONORABLE IF NOT ONE OF THE MOST HONORABLE PEOPLE IN THE RACE.

BUT THIS IS A TIME WHEN YOU CAN'’T -- FOR HIM TO RUN AGAINST THE PERSON -- THAT IS JUST NOT DONE.

YOU DO NOT ATTACK YOUR FORMER BOSS.

IN THE WAY THAT HE IS REQUIRED TO DO NOW -- I'’M SURPRISED HE IS IN THE RACE.

I THOUGHT POMPEO WOULD BE IN THE RACE AND PENS WOULD NOT BE AND IT HAS TURNED OUT JUST THE OPPOSITE.

GAUTAM: IF THIS IS THE PARADOX THAT REPUBLICANS FACE, THAT THE POSITIONS THEY ARE TAKING TO WIN THE NOMINATION SORT OF ARE GOING TO HURT THEM IN THE GENERAL AND YOU WANT TO WIN THE GENERAL, IT SEEMS LIKE THE DYNAMIC THAT SETS OFF IS ESSENTIALLY THE DEBT CEILING RIGHT?

IF YOU WERE RON DESANTIS, YOU WOULD WANT TO DEFAULT IN THE HOPE THAT MY GET BLAMED ON DONALD TRUMP AND YOU WIN THE PRESIDENCY.

IS THAT DANGER PART OF WHAT IS SHAPING THE NEGOTIATIONS RIGHT NOW?

DAVID: I THINK DESANTIS WOULD BE WISE TO STOP OUT TRUMPING TRUMP.

HE STARTING -- HE IS TRYING TO GET HIMSELF TO THE RIGHT OF DONALD TRUMP AND WHO WOULD IMAGINE ANYBODY WOULD TAKE THAT?

IT IS EXCEEDINGLY DANGEROUS AND I THINK IT IS EXCEEDINGLY WRONG BUT YOU KNOW, DESANTIS HAS SURPRISED IN THIS RACE.

I THOUGHT HE WOULD BE A MUCH STRONGER CANDIDATE THAN HE TURNED OUT TO BE.

I THINK THE STUMBLES IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS HAVE MADE HIM SEEM MORE HUMAN BUT HE DOES HAVE TIME TO TURN THIS AROUND AND IF HE CAN GET -- IF YOU CAN FIND HIS GROOVE, ESPECIALLY ON THE INTERNATIONAL FRONT, THEN I THINK HE WILL BECOME A MUCH MORE VIABLE CHALLENGER.

RIGHT NOW, I DON'’T THINK HE CAN BEAT TRUMP.

GAUTAM: IF IT IS NOT DESANTIS, TIM SCOTT IS THE PERSON YOU MENTIONED.

WHAT WOULD YOU TELL HIM?

DAVID: ONE OF THE NICE THINGS ABOUT THE WAY HE IS RUNNING THIS RACE IS HE IS AN OPTIMIST.

IT IS TOO EASY TO WRITE OFF AMERICA'’S PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE THESE DAYS.

SCOTT COMES ALONG AND SAYS, DON'’T WRITE US OFF.

WE ARE BETTER THAN WE ARE ACTING AND I'’M GOING TO BRING SOME, YOU KNOW, SOME LIGHTNESS AS WELL.

I THINK TIM SCOTT, ALONG WITH NIKKI HALEY, THOSE ARE THE TWO PEOPLE WHO ARE POTENTIALLY THE MOST INTERESTING, LOOKING FOR A WAY BACK THAT IS NOT OUT TRUMPING TRUMP.

GAUTAM: WHO IS GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE IN A FEW MONTHS?

DAVID: DONALD TRUMP.

GAUTAM: THANK YOU VERY MUCH, DAVID GERGEN.

WE APPRECIATE YOU HAVING US.

THAT IS IT FOR TONIGHT.

WE WILL BE BACK TOMORROW.

THANKS FOR WATCHING AND GOOD NIGHT.

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