>>> OUR NEXT GUEST IS SHOWING HIS LIFE OF SECRETS.

SERVED AS THE UNDERSECRETARY OF DEFENSE.

WRITTEN A MEMOIR GOING BEHIND THE SCENES OF SOME OF THE MOST COVERT OPERATIONS.

JOINING TO DISCUSS HIS CAREER.

>> THANK YOU.

WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> A PLEASURE TO BE WITH YOU, WALTER.

>> EXACTLY 50 YEARS AGO THIS MONTH YOU ENLISTED IN THE SPECIAL FORCES OF THE UNITED STATES.

HE ROSE UP THROUGH THE RANKS OF THE CIA TO BECOME THE TOP CIVILIAN DEFENSE OFFICER.

AFTER 50 YEARS OF KEEPING SECRETS DID YOU DECIDE TO WRITE A BOOK?

>> THAT IS A VERY GOOD QUESTION.

ENOUGH HAD BECOME PUBLICLY AVAILABLE THAT I THOUGHT I COULD TELL THE STORY.

WITH THE HELP OF REVIEWERS FROM THE CIA AND OTHER GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, I WAS ABLE TO DO THAT.

THERE WERE THREE REASONS, PRINCIPALLY.

A DUTY TO HISTORY THAT I PARTICIPATED IN SOME PRETTY HISTORIC EVENTS.

IT WAS THE LARGEST AND MOST SUCCESSFUL COVERT ACTION IN CIA HISTORY.

CAMPAIGNS AGAINST AL QAEDA TO DISRUPT, DISMANTLE AND ULTIMATELY DEFEAT THEM.

PRIMARILY IN THE AFGHANISTAN BORDER REGION.

AND THE RAID THAT BROUGHT JUSTICE TO OSAMA BIN LADEN.

THE SECOND REASON WAS REALLY TRYING TO EXPLAIN TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE THE WORK THAT CIA OFFICERS AND SPECIAL OPERATORS DO ON THEIR BEHALF AND THE THIRD WAS MY DUTY TO FUTURE OPERATORS AND STRATEGISTS TO PASS ON LESSONS AND HELP THEM PREVAIL.

>> I WAS STRUCK BY THE FACT THAT YOU JOINED THE SPECIAL FORCES THE SUMMER OF 1973 WHICH WAS EXACTLY WHEN THE U.S. IS WITHDRAWING IN A MESSY WAY FROM VIETNAM AND THE WHOLE COUNTRY HAS BEEN TORN APART BY VIETNAM.

WHAT CAUSED YOU TO WANT TO DO THAT.

WHAT LESSONS DID YOU TAKE FROM VIETNAM?

>> EARLIER ON I WANTED TO BE A PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL OR FOOTBALL PLAYER, IF THAT IS NOT IN THE CARDS, WHAT WILL I DO IN MY LIFE?

I SAW TOO MANY JAMES BOND MOVIES.

I SETTLED ON BECOMING A CIA OFFICER.

THE SPECIAL FORCES WAS SOMETHING I COULD GO INTO RIGHT AWAY, COMPLETE MY COLLEGE DEGREE, BECOME AN OFFICER AND THEN A CIA OFFICER.

IT ALL WORKED OUT THAT WAY.

YOU KNOW, I WANTED TO DO SOMETHING FOR MY COUNTRY WHERE INDIVIDUALS COULD REALLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE.

THE SPECIAL FORCES AND THE CIA.

SEE GREAT ADVENTURES.

I HAD READ -- AND OTHERS, THAT IS WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO DO.

A HIGH SCHOOL TEACHER PROVIDED A COPY OF THE NEW YORK TIMES IN FRONT OF ME MY SENIOR YEAR OF HIGH SCHOOL AND IT HAD A STORY ON THE MILITARY OPERATIONS DURING THE VIETNAM WAR.

I HAD NO IDEA WHY HE THOUGHT THAT.

I WAS DAYDREAMING ABOUT THROWING TOUCHDOWN PASSES, THIS IS SOMETHING I WANT TO DO.

THEN WHEN I WENT INTO THE SPECIAL FORCES, I WAS BLESSED BY HAVING ALL OF THESE VIETNAM VETERANS AS MENTORS TEACHING ME COMBAT TACTICS AND A RANGE OF THINGS THAT HELPED ME HAD BEEN ADVANCING UP THE RANKS.

THOSE WHO HAD ROSE TO FORD'S STAR RANKS, ERIC OLSON, STAN McCHRYSTAL, ET CETERA.

IT PRODUCED A PRETTY GOOD GROUP OF FOLKS.

>> ONE OF THE GREAT SUCCESSES IS THE AFGHAN OPERATION THAT DRIVES THE RUSSIANS OUT.

IT CAUSES SOME PROBLEMS.

HOW DID YOU COME UP WITH THE STRATEGY AND WHAT WOULD YOU DO DIFFERENTLY?

>> THE STRATEGY WAS PARTIALLY A RESULT OF EVENTS.

CONGRESSMAN CHARLIE WILSON HAD INCREASED THE BUDGET RIGHT AS I TOOK THE JOB.

WE COULD DO MORE THAN IMPOSE COSTS ON THE SOVIETS.

WE GOT TO WORK ON WHAT WE MIGHT DO.

AS I WAS WORKING ON MY PLANS AND THINKING WE COULD USE EVEN MORE RESOURCES WHICH CONGRESS PROVIDED, PRESIDENT REAGAN SIGNED THE NATIONAL SECURITY DECISION ELECTIVE WHICH CHANGED THE OBJECTIVE TO DRIVING THEM OUT.

THAT GAVE MY NEW STRATEGY A LOT OF LEEWAY.

I HAVE THIS WORD OF MY SENIORS AT THE CIA AND SECRETARY OF STATES AND DEFENSE, AND PRESIDENT REAGAN.

WHAT I WOULD DO DIFFERENTLY, IF I COULD, WE DISENGAGE FROM AFGHANISTAN AFTER THE SOVIETS WITHDREW AND THE COMMUNIST GOVERNMENT COLLAPSED, WE ALSO WITHDREW FROM THE REGION IN 1990.

THAT CAUSED A NUMBER OF PROBLEMS.

AFGHANISTAN WENT INTO A CIVIL WAR, THE TALIBAN AND WENT INTO POWER.

THE FIRST THING WOULD BE NOT TO DISENGAGE FROM THE REGION.

THAT WAS TOUGH FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS, WE HAD A LOT OF SUCCESS IN EUROPE.

>> IF WE HAD NOT HAVE DISENGAGE, WHAT WOULD WE HAVE DONE TO MAKE THINGS DIFFERENT?

WE SPENT $2.3 TRILLION TRYING TO DO IT.

AND WE WERE NOT ABLE TO.

>> WE MIGHT'VE PREVENTED IF WE HAD NOT DISENGAGED THE TALIBAN FROM TAKING OVER.

WHAT ARE AMBITION SHOULD'VE BEEN, I TAKE YOUR POINT ON NATIONBUILDING AND MAYBE THAT WAS A BRIDGE TOO FAR.

AFGHANISTAN REALLY DESCENDED INTO -- AND THAT CREATED THE PATH FOR THE TALIBAN.

>> LET ME GO ON THAT NATIONBUILDING THING.

I DO NOT WANT TO PUSH ON ANY ANSWERS HERE.

IS THIS SOMETHING THAT THE COVERT ACTION LEADERS LIKE YOURSELF, THE CIA AND THE U.S.

CANNOT DO, SHOULD WE TRY TO DO NATIONBUILDING?

>> SOME OF IT, WE CAN TRY.

IT IS NOT SOMETHING THAT PEOPLE IN MY LINE OF WORK NECESSARILY DO, IT IS A JOB FOR THE STATE DEPARTMENT AND OTHER ELEMENTS OF GOVERNMENT.

IT HAS ITS ROLES, WHEN YOU SET YOUR OBJECTIVES TOO HIGH.

WHEN WE ARE NARROWING ON THE COUNTERTERRORISM INTEREST, WHAT WE LEARNED AFTER 9/11 WAS TO NOT GIVE PROOF LIKE AL QAEDA ANY SANCTUARY.

IF I COULD JUST WIND THE CLOCK BACK TO 1998 AFTER THE EMBASSY BOMBINGS KNOWING WHAT HAPPENED ON 9/11, I WOULD'VE RECOMMENDED MORE DECISIVE ACTION THEN WE TOOK.

SOME MISSILE STRIKES AGAINST AL QAEDA AND SOME BACKING OF LOCAL ELEMENTS, THAT IS IT.

WE WOULD'VE DONE SOMETHING MORE MUSCULAR AFTER 9/11 AS WE DID.

>> WHAT LESSONS COMING OUT OF AFGHANISTAN APPLY TO THE RUSSIANS TRYING TO BE IN UKRAINE IN US TRYING TO HELP THE UKRAINIANS?

>> ONE, WHEN YOU TRY AND OCCUPY A BIG COUNTRY AS THE RUSSIANS DID IN AFGHANISTAN AND UKRAINE AND THE POPULATION IS AGAINST YOU, YOU HAVE YOUR HANDS FULL WHEN YOU HAVE A SMALL HORSE WHICH THE RUSSIANS DID IN BOTH CASES RELATIVE TO THE SIZE OF THE PROBLEM.

IN AFGHANISTAN, THEY WOULD'VE NEEDED FOUR TIMES THE FORCE TO EVEN HAVE A CHANCE OF PACIFYING THE COUNTRY, THEY WOULD'VE TAKEN A LOT OF CASUALTIES.

SAME WITH UKRAINE.

THAT IS WHY THEY ARE HUNKERED DOWN IN SOME REGIONS THEY ARE TRYING TO HOLD.

FOR THE U.S., THE ANSWER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT, WE ARE VERY SUCCESSFUL IN TOPPLING THE GOVERNMENT, NOT VERY SUCCESSFUL WITH WHAT COMES AFTER.

WE DID TRANSITION SECURITY RESPONSIBILITY TO THE AFGHANS.

WE PROVIDED ASSISTANCE THE LAST COUPLE YEARS, ADVISE, AID, AND BACKED UP BY AIRPOWER.

THE QUESTION IS, DO YOU HAVE THE STRATEGIC PATIENTS TO STAY THAT COURSE.

YOU TRANSITION SOON ENOUGH SO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE DO NOT GET TIRED OF WAR.

>> WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE WILD THING THAT IS HAPPENING IN UKRAINE WITH A MERCENARY ARMY.

IT SEEMS LIKE HE WAS PARTLY AFFILIATED WITH PUTIN FOR A LONG TIME.

THIS DOES NOT RING TRUE TO ME.

WHAT IS YOUR ASSESSMENT?

>> HE WAS CLOSE TO PUTIN FOR A LONG TIME.

SEVERAL COUNTRIES IN AFRICA PROVIDING SECURITY IN EXCHANGE FOR CRITICAL MINERALS, GOLD, AND OTHER THINGS.

IN SYRIA, AND UKRAINE IS ACTUALLY THE SHOCK TROOPS.

HE HAD BEEN PROGRESSIVELY CRITICIZING RUSSIAN MILITARY LEADERSHIP.

THAT THEY WERE NOT DOING ENOUGH.

THERE WAS ALSO THIS REGULATION COMING UP ONE JULY THAT REQUIRED HIS GROUP TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE.

HE HAD BEEN MAKING $1 BILLION IN THE LAST YEAR IN THIS OPERATION.

THIS WAS A THREAT TO HIS BUSINESS INTERESTS AND WHATEVER ELSE HE THOUGHT.

SINCE HE HAD GOTTEN AWAY WITH THINGS FOR MONTHS, THIS PROGRESSIVE RHETORIC.

HE THOUGHT HE COULD DO THIS MARCH AND GET THESE TWO INDIVIDUALS REMOVED AND IT DID NOT TURN OUT THAT WAY.

HE TURNED OUT TO BE A LOSER IN THIS.

IT IS ALL TO THE GOOD OF UKRAINIANS, EUROPEANS, AND THE UNITED STATES.

>> HOW DO YOU SEE THE UKRAINIAN SITUATION RESOLVING ITSELF?

>> IT COULD END LIKE KOREA AND OTHER RUSSIAN CONFLICTS WHERE THEY TRY TO HAVE A FROZEN CONFLICT.

THAT IS WHY I THINK WE NEED TO THINK THROUGH GIVING UKRAINIANS WHAT THEY NEED TO WIN AND TAKE BACK MOST IF NOT ALL OF THEIR TERRITORY.

>> YOU MEAN -- AS WELL?

>> THAT IS THE INSTANCE WE NEED TO LOOK AT.

IT IS A LITTLE BIT OF A DIFFERENT KETTLE OF FISH.

AND THEN AFTERWORDS RUSSIA WOULD TRY TO COME BACK AT SOME POINT.

THINGS THEY DO NOT NEED NOW, THEY WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO DETER IN THE FUTURE.

THEY DO ACTUALLY NEED THEM NOW.

IT WOULD HELP.

THEN THERE IS THE REBUILDING ASPECT TO THIS.

IT WILL BE A STAGGERING RECONSTRUCTION EFFORT.

>> WHEN I LOOK AT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN UKRAINE, PART OF IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS THE EARLY 20th CENTURY.

WORLD WAR I ERA TRENCH WARFARE.

IT LOOKS LIKE 21ST-CENTURY WARFARE WITH A LOT OF DRONES, A LOT OF CYBER THINGS LIKE USING SATELLITES IN ORDER TO ASSESS AND SEND MISSILES.

HOW IS WARFARE CHANGING?

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE TYPE OF SPECIAL OPERATIONS YOU DID?

>> YOU CAPTURED IT VERY WELL.

IT IS A COMBINATION OF WARFARE OVER THE LAST 100 YEARS.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE WORLD WAR I, THE NEED TO PROVIDE SOCIETAL ORDER AND LEVEL OF HUMAN MISSIONS.

HAVING THE CAPACITY TO PRODUCE THAT.

ONE OF THE FACTORS THAT DETERMINE THE OUTCOME OF WORLD WAR I AND WORLD WAR II.

YOU HAVE ALL OF THESE NEW TECHNOLOGIES.

IT IS A LAND WAR.

THERE ARE LOTS OF LESSONS ON LAND COMBAT ABOUT ARTILLERY AND COMBINED ARMS.

THE USE OF DRONES WHICH HAS CHANGED THE BATTLEFIELD.

THE ATTACKS ON THESE POPULATION CENTERS.

ALL CONFLICTS ARE DIFFERENT, DIFFERENT POLITICS, TECHNIQUES, IF WERE WERE A WAR OVER TAIWAN, IT WOULD LOOK VERY DIFFERENT LIKELY.

IT WOULD HAVE SOME ELEMENTS IN COMMON WITH UKRAINE.

POPULAR RESISTANCE TO ANY INVASION.

IT WOULD LIKELY BE MORE MARITIME AND BASE AND CYBER AND MORE HIGH-TECH THAN YOU SEE IN UKRAINE.

YOU HAVE TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT THE LESSONS YOU DRAW.

>> YOU GUARDED AMERICA'S MOST GROSSLY HELD SECRETS ALL THE WAY UP THE RANKS.

WHEN YOU ARE WATCHING WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH DONALD TRUMP IN THOSE DOCUMENTS, YOU HAVE A BETTER SENSE THAN ANYBODY ABOUT WHAT MIGHT BE IN THOSE DOCUMENTS AND WHY IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP THEM SAFE.

WHAT ARE YOU THINKING?

WHAT DO YOU THINK THE DAMAGE COULD BE?

>> IT DEPENDS ON WHAT THE DOCUMENTS ARE.

I WAS THE SENIOR INTELLIGENCE OFFICIAL WHEN EDWARD SNOW DID HIS LEAKS.

AND TOOK THINGS WITH HIM AND ENDED UP IN RUSSIA.

WE HAD TO DO A SERIES OF DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS ABOUT THAT AND WHAT WE KNEW HE TOOK AND WHAT THE DAMAGE WAS, WHEN HE MIGHT HAVE TAKEN AND WHAT HE LOOKED AT.

WE COULD NOT BE SURE IF HE TOOK IT OR NOT.

SOME OF IT POSED GRAVE DAMAGE TO THE UNITED STATES.

WITHOUT GETTING INTO THE DETAILS, THE WORST IT DID NOT HAPPEN.

LOTS OF BAD THINGS WERE COMPROMISED BY THAT.

THE TRUMP CASE, WHO SAW THESE DOCUMENTS I SHOULD NOT HAVE SEEN THEM, THAT IS A TARGET FOR THE FOREIGN ESPIONAGE SERVICES, THEY WERE UNGUARDED AND MOVED AROUND A LOT.

I'M SURE THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY IS WORKING DILIGENTLY ON ASSESSING THE DAMAGE.

CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEES ARE INTERESTED IN HEARING THAT.

IT IS A CONCERN WHENEVER SECRETS ARE SPILLED WITH THE AIRMAN IN MASSACHUSETTS.

>> LET ME READ SOMETHING IN YOUR BOOK ABOUT THE EFFECTIVENESS IN INTELLIGENCE.

WHERE WE MOST MISS THE MARK WAS IN THE ASSESSMENT THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN HAD -- CIA HAD ALSO FAILED TO ASSESS THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE JIHADIST GROUPS THAT CAME FROM IT.

THEY FAILED TO ANTICIPATE THE AGGRESSIVE ACTIONS BETWEEN 2014 AND 2016.

IF I WANT TO ADD TO THAT, THE BROAD SENSE THEY MISSED EVERYTHING IN THE LATE 1980S THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION AND HOW WEAK IT WAS.

AND NOW HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIGURE OUT THE COUNTER CONSENSUS ON IF COVID LEAD FROM A LAB.

HAVING READ YOUR BOOK I WAS IMPRESSED BY ALL THE THINGS THAT YOU DID.

I WORRY ABOUT THE INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT CAPABILITIES.

>> OUR INTELLIGENCE IS THE BEST IN THE WORLD BY FAR IN TERMS OF COLLECTION.

AND IN THE HONESTY OF OUR ANALYSIS.

THEY DO NOT GET IT RIGHT ALL THE TIME.

THEY GET IT RIGHT 70% OF THE TIME, THEY ARE DOING PRETTY WELL.

IT HAS BEEN SAID THAT YOU CAN DIVIDE THE INTELLIGENCE WORLD INTO SECRETS AND MINISTRIES.

THE MORE COMPLICATED THE PROBLEM WHERE THERE IS NOT A SECRET YOU CAN STEAL.

IT BECOMES, NOT A GUESSING GAME, BUT A TOUGHER JUDGMENT.

SOME OF THOSE CASES CERTAINLY FIT INTO THAT.

THE RECENT RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE.

THEY THOUGHT THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE UKRAINE QUICKLY.

THAT IS BASED ON THE ASSESSMENT OF THE CAPABILITIES OF THE RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES.

YOU CAN BE WRONG ABOUT THAT.

THEY WERE WRONG.

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF CASES LIKE THAT.

IT IS A TOUGH JOB.

I WAS MORE ON THE COLLECTIONS SIDE.

I AM A LITTLE MORE RELUCTANT TO THROW STONES AT ANALYSTS.

IT IS NOT PROTECTION.

YOU TRY TO TELL IT AS ACCURATELY AS YOU CAN AND YOUR POLICYMAKERS OR COMMANDERS DO WHAT THEY WILL WITH THE INTELLIGENCE.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> WALTER, PLEASURE TALKING TO YOU.