♪ >>> THIS IS "METROFOCUS," WITH RAFAEL PI ROMAN, JACK FORD, AND JENNA FLANAGAN.

>>> "METROFOCUS" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY -- SUE AND EDGAR WACHENHEIM III, THE PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND, BERNARD AND DENISE SCHWARTZ, BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG, THE AMBROSE MONELL FOUNDATION.

AND BY -- >>> GOOD EVENING AND WELCOME TO "METROFOCUS," I'M RAFAEL PI ROMAN.

YOU KNOW, THE OMICRON WAVE OF THE CORONAVIRUS APPEARS TO BE IN RETREAT.

DR. FAUCI NOW SAYS THAT THERE'S REASON TO BE OPTIMISTIC THAT THE VARIANT WILL HIT ITS PEAK AND TAIL OFF NATIONALLY IN THE COMING WEEKS.

BUT WHAT NEXT?

WHAT'S LIKELY TO HAPPEN AFTER OMICRON?

AND SPECIFICALLY, WHAT WILL THE NEW PHASE OF THE GLOBAL PANDEMIC LOOK LIKE OVER THE COMING MONTHS AND YEARS?

THESE ARE THE KEY QUESTIONS RAISED IN THE MOST RECENT "NEWSWEEK" COVER STORY, "THE FOREVER VIRUS."

AND JOINING US NOW TO HELP ANSWER THOSE QUESTIONS IS ONE OF THE COAUTHORS OF THE PIECE, "NEWSWEEK'S" SENIOR SPECIAL PROJECTS EDITOR AND THE AUTHOR OF THE BOOK "THE FATE OF THE SPECIES."

FRED, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

>> FRED, THE TITLE OF YOUR PIECE PRETTY MUCH GIVES AWAY YOUR CONCLUSION, AND WE'LL GET TO HOW COVID-19 WILL TURN INTO A FOREVER VIRUS IN A MOMENT.

BUT LET'S BEGIN WITH WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW.

IS THE OMICRON VARIANT BASICALLY DONE IN THE UNITED STATES, AS I SUGGESTED IN THE INTRODUCTION?

>> WELL, IT'S -- THE END IS IN SIGHT.

OR, I SHOULD SAY, THE END OF THIS WAVE IS IN SIGHT.

THERE'S STILL QUITE A LOT OF DAMAGE THE VIRUS WILL DO, I MEAN, THERE ARE MORE THAN 2,000 PEOPLE A DAY DYING AND IT'S YET TO GO THROUGH A LOT OF PLACES IN THE UNITED STATES WHERE OF A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF PEOPLE ARE NOT VACCINATED, SO, THEY'RE MORE VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS ILLNESS, BUT YEAH, WE CAN SEE THAT THE WAVE IS CRASHING OVER US AND IT'S -- IT WILL PROBABLY RECEDE AS QUICKLY AS IT CAME.

>> SO, YOU SAY THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE ARE DYING, I MEAN, THAT'S MORE THAN I ACTUALLY THOUGHT, BUT BY ALMOST ALL ACCOUNTS, OMICRON IS A RELATIVELY MILDER VERSION OF COVID-19 VIRUS.

HOW DOES ITS ABILITY TO CAUSE SERIOUS ILLNESS AND DEATH COMPARE TO THE DELTA VARIANT?

>> WELL, THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION.

IF YOU'RE VACCINATED, YOU'RE QUITE WELL PROTECTED AGAINST ILLNESS AND DEATH AND EVEN IF YOU'RE UNVACCINATED, YOU KNOW, THE OMICRON DOES NOT EXACT AS HEAVY A TOLL, BUT IT'S STILL -- IT STILL CAN MAKE PEOPLE QUITE SICK AND WHAT HOSPITALS ARE SEEING NOW IS, THEY'RE GETTING A LOOT OF PEOPLE -- FEWER PEOPLE WHO NEED TO GO ON VENTILATORS AND SUCH AND MORE PEOPLE WHO JUST COME IN WITH, YOU KNOW, SERIOUS ILLNESSES, BUT NOT, YOU KNOW, NOT QUITE -- NOT QUITE AS SEVERE.

BUT LIKE I SAY, THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF CHILDREN WHO AREN'T VACCINATED, THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE IMMUNOCOME PROMUSED, AND THESE PEOPLE ARE STILL AT SIGNIFICANT RISK.

>> YEAH, IT'S OBVIOUSLY NOT THE COMMON COLD.

SOMETIMES YOU GET THAT SENSE FROM SOME OF THE THINGS THAT SOME OF THE PEOPLE SAY.

NEVERTHELESS, YOU KNOW, THE OPTIMISTIC TAKE ON OMICRON IS THAT SINCE IT IS BOTH RELATIVELY MILD AND HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS, THAT IT WILL SAFELY, RELATIVELY S SAFELY INFECT MILLIMETERS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD, GIVING THEM NATURAL IMMUNITY, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VACCINATED, WILL LIMIT THE VIRUS TO A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD'S POPULATION, MEANING IT IS THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE PANDEMIC.

IS THIS OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO REALISTIC?

AND IS IT THE COMMONLY ACCEPTED ONE?

>> YEAH, I MEAN, IT'S THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME, I THINK.

YOU KNOW, I MEAN, A LOT OF THIS IS WHAT REALLY GOING BY WHAT EPIDEMIOLOGISTS EXPECT, JUDGING FROM THE BEHAVIOR OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE AND PRIOR PANDEMICS.

IN THE 1918 INFLUENZA OUTBREAK, YOU SAW SUCCESSIVE WAVES OF ILLNESS AND EACH WAVE LEFT MORE PEOPLE BEHIND WHO WERE -- WHO HAD SOME, YOU KNOW, SOME IMMUNE SYSTEM PROTECTION.

AND SO, THE VIRUS SORT OF HAS LESS -- LESS ROOM TO RUN.

AND EVENTUALLY, YOU KNOW, THE WAVES, EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE IS A LITTLE SMALLER AND EVENTUALLY THINGS SORT OF CALM DOWN.

SO, THAT'S -- I THINK WE'RE SEEING A VERSION OF THAT WITH CORON CORONAVIRUS, BUT THIS LAST WAVE IS MUCH BIGGER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER WAVES AND THAT'S, YOU KNOW, THAT'S BECAUSE OF THE VIRUS HAS MUTATED TO A FORM THAT'S MUCH MORE TRANSMISSIBLE AND, YOU KNOW, THAT'S WHY WE'RE SEEING SO MANY PEOPLE GETTING IT NOW.

BUT THE -- I HESITATE TO SAY -- I GUESS IT'S A SILVER LINING, I'M CAUTIOUS ABOUT, YOU KNOW, SOUNDS LIKE I'M IN A CELEBRATORY MODE WHEN THERE ARE PEOPLE D DYING, BUT THE SILVER LINING OF OMICRON IS THAT IT IS REALLY -- IT'S SO CONTAGIOUS THAT IT'S REALLY GOING TO GET TO SO MANY PEOPLE THAT IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF IMMUNITY, AT LEAST TEMPORARY IMMUNE TILL AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE EXPECTATION IS IT WILL CAUSE THE LEVELS OF THE VIRUS TO CALM DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND WE'LL BE ABLE TO MAYBE RESUME NORMAL LIFE, WHICH WOULD BE -- WHICH WOULD BE A REALLY GREAT THING.

>> YOU KNOW, I HEARD SOMEONE THE OTHER DAY COMPARING THE CONTAGIOUSNESS OF OMICRON TO THE MEASLES.

DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT, THAT IT'S THAT CONTAGIOUS?

>> I THINK IT'S -- WELL, I THINK IT'S ALMOST AS CONTAGIOUS AS MEASLES.

IT'S HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS, YEAH.

>> WOW.

>> IT ALMOST SEEKS LIKE IT COMES THROUGH THE WALLS, YOU KNOW?

MY SON LIVES IN BROOKLYN AND JUST BEFORE, IN DECEMBER, HE WAS -- HE WAS TELLING US THAT ALL OF HIS FRIENDS HAVE COVID AND, IN FACT, AND THEN MY SON GOT IT, AND THESE ARE 25-YEAR-OLDS WHO ARE OUT IN BARS AND, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE KIND OF, YOU KNOW, CIRCULATING AND MY SON'S VERY CAUTIOUS AND HE WEARS MASKS AND HE'S BEEN TRIPLE VAXED.

>> BUT HE GOT IT ANYWAY.

>> HE SAID EVERYBODY GOT IT.

I GUESS ONE OF THEIR FRIENDS DIDN'T GET IT AND THEY COULDN'T UNDERSTAND WHY HE DIDN'T GET IT.

SO, THAT'S HOW CONTAGIOUS IT IS.

>> SO, FRED, SHOULD WE ALWAYS HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE ORIGINAL COVID-19 VIRUS WOULD MUTATE INTO DIFFERENT VARIANTS?

>> AH, YES AND NO.

I MEAN, I THINK -- I THINK, YOU KNOW, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT IT WOULD MUTATE, BUT IN THE BEGINNING, IT LOOKED VERY STABLE AND IT'S JUST -- WE JUST DON'T KNOW WHAT ITS POTENTIAL IS, OR WHAT -- IT'S LIKE A FOOTBALL GAME, AND I GUESS I HAVE FOOTBALL ON THE MIND, BECAUSE I WAS -- SPENT THE WHOLE WEEKEND WATCHING -- >> THAT WAS A HECK OF A WEEKEND OF FOOTBALL, RIGHT?

>> IT'S LIKE A GAME OF FOOTBALL.

THE BALL BOUNCES A CERTAIN WAY AND THINGS TURN OUT, THE COURSE OF THE GAME GOES IN A CERTAIN DIRECTION AND AN OUTBREAK IS KIND OF LIKE THAT.

YOU GET A COIN TOSS AND YOU GET A VARIANT THAT COMES OUT THAT HAS CERTAIN CHARACTERISTICS AT A CERTAIN MOMENT AND IT TAKES OFF AND IT CHANGES THE COURSE OF THE PANDEMIC.

AND THERE WAS NO WAY TO FORESEE THAT.

THERE'S NO WAY THAT VIROLOGISTS CAN LOOK AT THE GENETIC MATERIAL IN A VIRUS AND SAY, OH, YES, WELL, WE CAN CLEARLY SEE IT'S GOING TO DO THIS AND IT'S GOING TO DO THAT.

IT'S LIKE A -- IT'S A COMPLICATED FOOTBALL GAME.

>> WELL, FROM READING YOUR ARTICLE, IT SEEMED TO ME THAT IT SHOULD HAVE -- I MEAN, THE EXPERTS SHOULD HAVE SAID, FROM THE HISTORY, LIKELY IT'S GOING TO HAVE VARIANTS, BUT WE NEVER HEARD THAT.

NOT UNTIL DELTA HIT DID THE CONVERSATION INCLUDE THE ISSUE OF VARIANTS.

AND I REMEMBER PERFECTLY, YOU KNOW, WHEN THE VACCINES CAME OUT, IT WAS TWO SHOTS AND EUREKA, WE'RE BACK TO NORMAL.

THAT HAPPENED FOR A BLESSED FEW WEEKS AND THEN, BOOM, FORGET IT.

>> THEY WERE A GREAT FEW WEEKS.

BUT THE THING IS, THAT COULD HAPPEN AGAIN.

THAT'S THE PES MIGSIC SCENARIO.

AND I THINK IT'S CONSIDERED THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIO, BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT THIS VIRUS STILL HAS TO GO THROUGH.

AND A LOT OF THEM AROUND THE WORLD ARE NOT VACCINATED AND SO, WHEN THE VIRUS HAS THIS MUCH ROOM TO MANEUVER, IT HAS -- IT JUST KEEPS SHUFFLING THE DECK AND, YOU KNOW, ROLLING THE DICE, WHATEVER METAPHOR YOU WANT, AND IT GIVES IT MORE OF A CHANCE FOR IT TO COME UP WITH A COMBINATION, SOME GENETIC COMBINATION THAT GIVES IT THE ABILITY TO EVADE IMMUNE PROTECTIONS THAT WE ALREADY HAVE, IT OPENS UP THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL BE MORE DEADLY.

SO, YOU KNOW, THERE IS -- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER VARIANT AND THE VARIANT WILL BE EVEN WORSE THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN -- >> WELL, WE'LL TALK ABOUT ALL THAT IN JUST ONE MOMENT, BUT RIGHT NOW, AND I HAVE TO ASK THIS, EVEN THOUGH YOU BASICALLY ALREADY TOUCHED ON THE ANSWER.

YOU KNOW, THERE ARE A LOT OF VACCINE SKEPTICS INCREASINGLY POINTING OUT, OF COURSE, THAT THE DOUBLE VACCINATED, AS YOU SAID ABOUT YOUR SON AND HIS FRIENDS, DOUBLE VACCINATE AND THE BOOSTERED SEEM TO BE GETTING COVID, THIS OMICRON COVID VARIATION, AS MUCH AS THE UNVACCINATE AND THEREFORE, THEY'RE ASKING, ISN'T IT POINTLESS TO GET VACCINATED AND FI FURTHER, ISN'T IT WORSE THAN POINTLESS TO HAVE VACCINE MANDATES?

GIVE A RESPONSE TO THAT.

>> WELL, IT'S EXASPERATING TO ME THAT WE'RE HAVING TO HAVE THIS CONVERSATION, BECAUSE -- I JUST WANT TO ESTABLISH THAT VACCINES ARE PROBABLY -- YOU WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO THINK OF AN INVENTION THAT HAS SAVED MORE LIVES, THAT IS MORE BENEFICIAL TO HUMANKIND, THAT GIVES SO MUCH BENEFIT FOR SO LITTLE RISK THAN VACCINES.

I MEAN, THE FACT THAT WE'RE IS THE -- YOU KNOW, THIS WEEK CALCULUS THAT, WHILE I DON'T KNOW THE VACCINE IS RISKY SO I'LL TAKE MY CHANCES WITH THE DISEASE, IS MISGUIDED.

IT'S UNDERSTANDABLE, BUT IT'S -- STATISTICALLY, IT DOESN'T MAKE ANY SENSE.

YOU'RE MUCH BETTER OFF GETTING VACCINATED FOR YOUR PERSONAL SAFETY.

>> SURE.

>> BUT THE OTHER THING, I THINK, THAT GOES UNDERAPPRECIATED IS THE PUBLIC ASPECT OF VACCINES AND, YOU KNOW, THE MORE PEOPLE WHO ARE VACCINATED, THE LOWER THE LEVEL OF VIRUS WILL BE IN THE POPULATION AND THE MORE WILL, YOU KNOW, THE LOWER THE RISK OF A VARIANT COMING AROUND.

AND VACCINES GIVE -- EVEN IF YOU'VE HAD THE VIRUS, VACCINES WILL EXPOSE -- GIVE YOUR IMMUNE SYSTEM ANOTHER, YOU KNOW, FILLUP AND IT WILL HELP AND YOU'LL BE BETTER PROTECTED, BECAUSE THE VARIANTS THAT COME AROUND, THE CHANCES ARE, IF A VARIANT LIKE -- IF YOU'VE HAD DELTA, YOU'VE GOT SOME RESISTANCE TO OMICRON, BUT LESS THAN YOU WOULD IF YOU HAD GOTTEN OMICRON OR LESS THAN YOU WOULD HAVE IF YOU HAD GOTTEN VACCINATED.

AND SO, THERE'S SO -- IT'S NOT -- THE QUESTION IS NOT, OH, IS IT WORTH THE RISK OF GETTING VACCINATED IF I'VE HAD OMICRON, THE QUESTION IS -- THERE'S JUST -- THERE'S SO LITTLE RISK INVOLVED IN GETTING THE VACCINE AND THERE'S -- YOU'LL BE THAT MUCH BETTER PROTECTED AGAINST SOMETHING IN THE FUTURE.

>> HOW ABOUT SPECIFICALLY, THE RATIONALE FOR THE SO-CALLED VACCINE PASSPORTS THAT WE HAVE HERE IN NEW YORK CITY, WHERE YOU HAVE TO SHOW PROOF OF VACCINE TO ENTER A LOT OF PUBLIC VENUES, GYMS, RESTAURANTS, BARS, YOUR WORKPLACE OR PLACES OF BUSINESS, I MEAN, THE ASHSUMPTION WAS, IF YOU ARE VACCINATED, THAT WAS A SOLID INDICATION YOU DIDN'T HAVE THE VIRUS, BUT CLEARLY THAT'S NOT THE CASE ANYMORE.

BUT THE PASSPORT STILL EXISTS.

DOES THE RATIONALE FOR VACCINE PASSPORT STILL -- SHOULD WE STILL HAVE THEM?

>> WELL, THE BENEFIT -- LET'S PUT IT THIS WAY, THE BENEFIT YOU GET FROM VACCINE PASSPORTS IS NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS WHAT YOU WOULD HAVE GOTTEN BEFORE, IF VACCINES -- WHEN VACCINES REALLY DID REDUCE THE CHANCE OF TRANSMISSION GREATLY.

BUT YOU ARE LESS LIKELY TO TRANSMIT THE DISEASE WITH A VACCINE -- BEING VACCINATED, EVEN WITH OMICRON, BECAUSE YOUR IMMUNE SYSTEM IS STRONGER.

YOU'RE NOT GOING TO BE INFECTED FOR AS LONGER AND YOU'RE PROBABLY NOT GOING TO PRODUCE AS MUCH VIRUS.

SO, EVEN THOUGH IT'S NOT -- IT'S NOT AN EITHER/OR THING THAT'S EITHER ON OR OFF.

YOU KNOW, YOU ARE BETTER OFF WITH -- HAVING BEEN VACCINATED WITH YOUR ABILITY TO TRANSMIT.

NOW, WHETHER, YOU KNOW, THE -- THE PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES AND WHETHER THEY'RE SENSIBLE IS -- THOSE ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT QUESTIONS AND THEY'RE POLITICAL QUESTIONS.

>> YEAH.

YOU KNOW, AS YOU'VE SAID, WE DON'T REALLY KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THIS IS GOING, BECAUSE IT'S A NEW VIRUS, SO, YOU KNOW, WE DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT THE VARIANTS, WE DON'T KNOW WHERE IT'S GOING, WE THINK WE KNOW.

BUT YOU WRITE IN YOUR ARTICLE THAT VIRUSES TEND TO GET MILDER WITH TIME.

NOW, I NOO YKNEW THAT, BUT I DI KNOW WHY.

CAN YOU SHARE THAT WITH US?

>> WELL, NOW I'M TRYING TO REMEMBER WHAT IT WAS I WROTE -- >> WHAT I'M THINKING ABOUT IS HOW THE VIRUSES WANT TO SURVIVE, THEREFORE THEY GET MILDER SO THEY DON'T KILL THEIR HOST -- >> I SEE, RIGHT.

>> THAT PART OF IT.

>> WELL, THE VIRUSES -- ALL THE VIRUS CARES ABOUT IS SURVIVAL, SO, YOU KNOW, BECOMING MORE -- HAVING AN ABILITY TO SURVIVE FOR LONGER IS WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT, SO THE VIRUS CAN DO THAT BY BEING VERY CONTAGIOUS, IT CAN ALSO DO THAT BY EVADING IMMUNE PROTECTIONS.

AND OMICRON DOES THAT, BOTH OF THOSE THINGS.

NOW, A VIRUS DOESN'T WANT TO -- A VIRUS KILLS YOU AS SOON AS YOU GET IT, IT'S NOT GOING TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG, BECAUSE IF IT KILLS THE HOST, YOU'RE NOT GOING TO BE ALIVE TO SPREAD IT.

COVID -- THE COVID VIRUS KIND OF GETS AROUND THAT BY -- BY ALLOWING PEOPLE TO BE, YOU KNOW, BY SPREADING ASYMPTOMATICALLY, SO, YOU CAN BE INFIGHTED, YOU CAN BE, YOU KNOW, GOING OUT AND SEEING YOUR FRIENDS AND RIDING ON THE SUBWAY AND YOU DON'T HAVE ANY SYMPTOMS AND THEN YOU ONLY HAVE SYMPTOMS UNTIL LATER.

SO, IT'S STILL POSSIBLE FOR A DEADLIER -- IT'S STILL POSSIBLE FOR A VARIANT TO EVOLVE THAT IS -- THAT SUCCEEDS IN SPR SPREADING, BUT ALSO KILLS THE HOST.

IF IT GIVES YOU THAT -- IF IT HAS ENOUGH TIME TO SPREAD BEFORE SYMPTOMS ARRIVE.

BUT THAT'S GENERALLY NOT HOW THINGS GO.

AND AGAIN, YOU KNOW, THIS IS KIND OF A THIN REED TO GRAB ONTO, BUT THAT'S HOW THESE THINGS TEND TO BEHAVE OVER TIME, SO, I THINK THAT'S THE EXPECTATION.

BUT IT'S NOT AN IRONCLAD RULE AND AS WE SAW WITH DELTA, DELTA WAS MORE DEADLY THAN WHAT PRECEDED IT.

>> YEAH.

WELL, WHICHEVER THINGS GO, YOU KNOW, WHETHER SUDDENLY A MORE VIRULENT VARIANT HAPPENS NOUS OR MORE LIKELY THE MILDER, AS MOST PEOPLE PREDICT, HAPPENS, EITHER WAY, YOU CONCLUDE IN THE ARTICLE, IF I'M CORRECT, THAT COVID-19 WILL ULTIMATELY, EVENTUALLY, AT SOME POINT, GO FROM BEING A PANDEMIC TO AN ENDEMIC.

TELL US WHAT THAT MEANS, EXACTLY.

>> WELL, THERE'S -- IT'S REALLY WHAT I WAS DESCRIBING BEFORE, YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE -- WHEN YOU HAVE A PANDEMIC, YOU HAVE A POPULATION THAT IS NAIVE, YOU KNOW, TO THE VIRUS, THAT HAS NO IMMUNE PROTECTION, SO, IN THE BEGINNING, YOU GET -- YOU GET A BIG RISK OF INFECTION AND THE VIRUS BASICALLY JUST TEARS THROUGH THE POPULATION.

THE WAY OMICRON IS DOING NOW.

AND THEN YOU GET TO A POINT WHERE YOU DO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMMUNE PROTECTION AND THE LEVELS OF THE VIRUS JUST SORT OF CALM DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IT'S STILL THERE AND IT'S STILL -- IT'S LIKE SOMETHING LIKE THE FLU.

IT'S STILL AROUND, IT'S STILL -- IT'S STILL KICKING OFF VARIANTS.

WE GET FLU VARIANTS EVERY YEAR, THAT'S WHY WE HAVE TO BE INOCULATED, OR WHY THEY RECOMMEND YOU BE INOCULATED.

BUT IT BECOMES SOMETHING THAT -- THAT NORMAL PEOPLE DON'T HAVE TO FRET OVER, YOU KNOW?

THE -- THE SCIENTISTS AND THE PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS CONTINUE TO FRET, THEY WATCH IT, THEY WORRY, THEY -- AND THEY ISSUE WARNINGS, IF THERE'S AN OU OUTBREAK, THERE'S A NEW VARIANT THAT'S CAUSING SOME TROUBLE.

IF WE NEED TO WEAR MASKS OR GET VACCINES, THEY WILL TELL US.

BUT IT'S NOT SOMETHING WHERE WE HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE TO CANCEL OUR RESTAURANT RESERVATIONS ALL THE TIME AND WE HAVE TO HAVE LOCKDOWNS AND WE HAVE TO HAVE MASK MANDATES IN THE WORKPLACE AND THAT SORT OF THING.

LIFE CAN KIND OF GO ON AS NORMAL.

>> SO IT SEEMS PRETTY CLEAR THAT COVID-19 IS HERE TO STAY AND THAT WE'LL JUST HAVE TO ADJUST TO HOWEVER IT MANIFESTS ITSELF.

LEARN TO LIVE WITH IT.

EVEN DR. FAUCI IS NOW SAYING THIS, THE SAME THING.

HE WAS HESITANT TO SAY THIS, BUT HE'S SAYING THAT, AS WELL, BUT AS YOU KNOW, FRED, THERE WERE VIROLOGISTS AND OTHER MEDICAL EXPERTS WHO WERE ARGUING THAT THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN OUR POSTURE ALMOST FROM THE BEGINNING -- PROBABLY AFTER WE FLATTENED THE CURVE.

NOW, THEY ARGUED THAT SINCE THE VIRUS LIKELY NEVER GOING TO GO AWAY, SOME OF THEM SAID IT VERY EARLY ON, WE NEEDED TO FOCUS ON THE MOST VULNERABLE WHILE THE REST OF US LEARNED TO LIVE WITH THE VIRUS, THEREBY AVOIDING THE CATASTROPHIC ECONOMIC AND HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF LOCKDOWNS.

SOME OF THESE CRITICS WERE VILIFIED BY OTHER EXPERTS AND ESSESECENSORED BY SOCIAL MEDIA.

HAVE THEY BEEN VINDICATED IN ANY WAY, DO YOU THINK?

>> WELL, YOU KNOW, I DON'T K KNOW -- WELL -- YES -- YES AND NO.

I THINK IT'S -- THE FLAW IN THAT -- IN THAT, AS A PUBLIC HEALTH POLICY, TO PROTECT VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND LET EVERYONE ELSE GO ABOUT THEIR DAILY LIVES IS THAT THERE'S NO -- THERE'S NO DIVIDING LINE IN OUR POPULATION BETWEEN VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PEOPLE WHO AREN'T VULNERABLE.

I MEAN, YOU KNOW, GRANDKIDS GO TO VISIT THEIR GRANDPARENTS, YOU KNOW, AND THEY GET TOGETHER FOR HOLIDAYS AND SOMETIMES THEY LIVE TOGETHER.

YOU CAN HAVE SOMEONE WHO GOES TO -- WHO IS PERFECTLY HEALTHY, HAS NO UNDERLYING SYMPTOMS, UNDERLYING ISSUES, MAY NOT BE IN THE MOST EXTREME VULNERABLE CATEGORY, LIVE WITH SOMEONE WHO IS IMMUNOCOMPROMISED.

IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO DIVIDE PEOPLE UP LIKE THAT, SO, IT'S ALL MIXED UP.

THE OTHER THING IS, YOU KNOW, THAT -- THAT SOUNDS A LITTLE BIT ALSO LIKE THE -- THE THING THAT TRUMP ADMINISTRATION FOLKS WERE ARGUING BACK IN 2020, YOU KNOW, THE HERD IMMUNITY NOTION.

WELL, LET'S JUST LET PEOPLE GET IT, WE'LL PROTECT IMMUNOCOMPROMISED PEOPLE, LET OTHER PEOPLE GET IT AND THEN IT WILL BE OVER, IT WILL BURN THROUGH THE POPULATION -- TROUBLE IS THAT A LOT OF THOSE PEOPLE WHO ARE SUPPOSEDLY NOT THAT VULNERABLE, A LOT OF THOSE PEOPLE WOULD DIE UNDER THAT POLICY.

YOU KNOW?

SO, YOU'RE BASICALLY THROWING PEOPLE AT THE VIRUS AND SAYING, "FEND FOR YOURSELVES."

AND YOU'RE NOT REALLY PROTECTING IMMUNOCOMPROMISED PEOPLE.

SO, NO, IT'S NOT A GOOD POLICY.

>> SO, YOU DON'T TOUCH ON THIS IN YOUR PIECE, FRED, BUT AS YOU KNOW, THERE ARE THOSE WHO ARGUE THAT WHILE IT WAS A VERY GOOD THING THAT WE SPENT SO MUCH ENERGY AND RESOURCES SON DEVELOPING VACCINES AT WARP SPEED, WE SHOULD HAVE DONE AT LEAST AS MUCH TO EXPLORE AND RESEARCH AFFORDABLE TREATMENTS AND TO GET THEM OUT THERE TO PEOPLE ALSO AT WARP SPEED, BUT INSTEAD, THE ARGUMENT GOES, WE DID EVERYTHING THAT WE COULD TO TRASH SOME OF THESE AFFORDABLE THERAPEUTICS SUCH AS IVERMECTIN AND EVEN HYDRO COLOR QUINN WHICH WAS PART OF THE PROTOCOL OF MANY OTHER COUNTRIES, INCLUDING CHINA.

MY FAMILY, MY WIFE'S FAMILY IS FROM CHINA, THEY WERE USING IT.

AND BY TRASHING IT, THEY MADE IT ALMOST INACCESSIBLE, CAUSING THOUSANDS OF NEEDLESS DEATHS.

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT?

>> THE PROBLEM WITH THAT ARGUMENT IS THAT THOSE TREATMENTS HAVE BEEN STUDIED AND THEY -- THEY HAVEN'T PROVEN THEIR METTLE INST STUDIES.

WHAT'S CONFUSING TO A LOT OF PEOPLE IS THAT THERE ARE DIFFERENT -- THAT NOT ALL EVIDENCE IS OF EQUAL VALIDITY, SO, YOU CAN HAVE -- YOU KNOW, I'VE SEEN DOCTORS SAY, I GAVE 400 PATIENTS HIGH DROX COLOR QUINN AND THEY ALL RECOVERED.

WELL, THAT'S AN INTERESTING OBSERVATION, BUT IT'S NOT A STUDY, IT'S NOT A RANDOMIZED CLINICAL TRIAL WHERE YOU HAVE A CONTROL GROUP AND YOU HAVE A GROUP THAT GETS THE TREATMENT AND YOU HAVE THEM, YOU KNOW, THESE GROUPS ARE LARGE ENOUGH SO THAT THEY PROVIDE SOME STATISTICAL ROBUSTNESS AND THEN YOU CAN -- YOU CAN, YOU KNOW, YOU CAN RUN THE NUMBERS AND YOU CAN SAY WITH CONFIDENCE, WITH SPECIFIC LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRUG WORKS.

I MEAN, THIS WAS DONE WITH HIGH DROX COLOR QUINN BECAUSE TRUMP WAS PUSHING IT.

AND THERE WAS A TON OF MEN SPENT DOING TRIALS WITH IT AND IT DOESN'T WORK.

OR, IT -- LET ME PUT IT THIS WAY, IT DIDN'T WORK WELL ENOUGH TOOVER SKOM OVERCOME THE DAMAGE THE DRUG ITSELF COULD DO.

THERE ARE ALWAYS SIDE EFFECTS.

>> SURE.

>> SAME WITH IVERMECTIN.

IT'S BEEN STUDIED -- THERE ARE A NUMBER OF RANDOMIZED CLINICAL TRIALS AND THEY'VE COME UP EMPTYHANDED.

>> OKAY.

WE HAVE LESS THAN TWO MINUTES LEFT AND I WANT TO GET TO THIS QUESTION.

WHEREVER THE VIRUS IS NOW IN ITS NATURAL EVOLUTION, I HAVE THE SENSE THAT MANY, IF NOT MOST OF THE PEOPLE HERE AND AROUND THE WORLD, HAVE DECIDED THAT AS FAR AS THEY'RE CONCERNED, THE PANDEMIC IS OVER.

I MEAN, HERE IN NEW YORK CITY, FOR EXAMPLE, AT THE HEIGHT OF THE -- OF THE CONTAGION, OF THE RISING CASES, BECAUSE OF OMICRON, PEOPLE WERE GETTING TESTED BY THE THOUSANDS, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, THE SUBWAYS WERE CROWDED AND THERE WAS NO -- PEOPLE CAN'T GOING TO THE BARS AND THE RESTAURANTS AND THE GYMS, YOU KNOW?

THERE WAS NO SENSE OF US GOING BACK TO LOCKDOWN.

ONLY THE GOVERNOR KIND OF SAID THAT FOR A BRIEF MOMENT AND THEN SHE SAW WHERE THE WIND WAS BLOWING AND SAID, NO, NEVER MIND.

IF THAT CONTINUES, WHAT WILL BE THE EFFECT OF THAT ON THE NATURAL EVOLUTION OF THE VIRUS?

>> YOU MEAN, THE EFFECT THAT PEOPLE -- >> WILL IT MAKE IT WORSE?

I MEAN, WILL THE VIRUS -- WILL IT MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE VIRUS ON ITS OWN BECOME MORE MILD?

>> THE MORE THE VIRUS CIRCULATES, THE MORE OPPORTUNITY IT HAS TO TAKE A TROUBLESOME NEW FORM.

BUT I ALSO THINK, YOU KNOW, YOU COULD DO -- JUST LOCK EVERYBODY DOWN AND MAKE EVERYONE STAY AT HOME -- >> I DON'T THINK PEOPLE WOULD.

>> BUT YOU CAN'T REALLY DO THAT IN A DEMOCRACY, YOU KNOW?

I MEAN, PEOPLE ARE -- >> RIGHT.

>> PEOPLE NEED TO BE PERSUADED, YOU KNOW?

AND -- BUT I THINK THE BIGGER ISSUE IS GETTING THE -- THE PEOPLE VACCINATED WHO HAVEN'T VACCINATED.

>> ALL RIGHT.

>> THAT IS REALLY IMPORTANT.

>> OKAY, I'M SORRY, WE HAVE FIVE SECONDS AND I GOT TO GO, BECAUSE WE'RE ON A TIGHT DEADLINE.

THANK YOU SO MUCH, IT'S A WONDERFUL ARTICLE, WILL HELP A LOT OF PEOPLE.

>> MY PLEASURE.

THANK YOU.

>>> "METROFOCUS" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY -- SUE AND EDGAR WACHENHEIM III, THE PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND, BERNARD AND DENISE SCHWARTZ, BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG, THE AMBROSE MONELL FOUNDATION.

AND BY --