>>> NEW YORK CITY IS GROWING BIGGER AND BIGGER BY THE YEAR, BUT AFRICAN AMERICANS ARE PACKING UP AND MOVING OUT IN STAGGERING NUMBERS.

AFTER THE CITY'S NONHISPANIC BLACK POPULATION DROPPED BY OVER 120,000 PEOPLE, WHAT'S DRIVING THIS EXODUS, AND HOW COULD IT SHAPE NEW YORK'S FUTURE?

"METROFOCUS" STARTS RIGHT NOW.

♪♪ >>> THIS IS "METROFOCUS," WITH RAFAEL PI ROMAN, JACK FORD, AND JENNA FLANAGAN.

>>> "METROFOCUS" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY -- SUE AND EDGAR WACHENHEIM III, FILOMEN M. D'AGOSTINO FOUNDATION, THE PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND, BERNARD AND DENISE SCHWARTZ, BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG, AND BY -- >>> GOOD EVENING, AND WELCOME TO "METROFOCUS."

I'M JENNA FLANAGAN.

IT MIGHT COME AS A SURPRISE THAT WITH ALL THE CHALLENGES NEW YORK IS FACING, FROM SKYROCKETING RENTS TO SURGING CRIME, THE CITY'S POPULATION IS ACTUALLY GROWING.

BUT THAT'S NOT THE CASE FOR EVERY GROUP, ESPECIALLY AFRICAN AMERICANS, WHOSE NUMBERS APPEAR TO BE HEADED IN THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.

NOW A RECENT ANALYSIS FOUND THE NUMBER OF NONHISPANIC BLACK RESIDENTS DECLINED BY MORE THAN 120,000 OVER A 20-YEAR PERIOD WITH LOCAL SOCIAL SCIENTISTS ATTRIBUTING THE MAJORITY OF THE EXODUS TO THE SHRINKING AFRICAN AMERICAN COMMUNITY.

IT'S REPORTEDLY ONE OF THE LARGEST SUCH DECLINES AMONG MAJOR CITIES NATIONWIDE, SO WHY ARE SO MANY BLACK NEW YORKERS DECIDING TO PACK UP AND LEAVE, AND WHAT COULD BE THE RAMIFICATIONS CULTURALLY, POLITICALLY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES?

TONIGHT WE'RE EXPLORING THIS TRENDS AS PART OF OUR CHASING THE EXTREME INITIATIVE.

ARIA IS A RACE AND JUSTICE UNIT REPORTER FOR WNYC AND GOTHAMMIST AND AUTHOR OF THE RECENT STORY "EXODUS FROM NEW YORK CITY".

WELCOME TO "METROFOCUS."

>> LOVELY TO BE HERE.

THANKS, JENNA.

>> I WOULD ALSO LIKE TO WELCOME DR. BLAIR.

SHE STUDIES THE CITY'S CHANGING BLACK POPULATION AND SERVES AS CHAIR OF THE REPUBLICAN ADMINISTRATION AT CUNY MEDGAR EVERS COLLEGE.

WELCOME.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>> AND A HUSBAND AND WIFE TEAM WHO RENT A HERALDED BED STUY RESTAURANT BEFORE RELOCATING TO NORTH CAROLINA.

WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANK YOU, JENNA.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

THANK YOU ALL SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE.

ARIA, I WANT TO START WITH YOU AND JUST SORT OF ASK ABOUT THE GENESIS OF THE STORY.

IT'S SOMETHING I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE COMMUNITY MIGHT HAVE FELT, BUT OTHER NEW YORKERS, AGAIN, WE LIVE IN SUCH A DIVERSITY, BUT WE'RE NOT ALWAYS THE BEST AT PAYING ATTENTION TO EACH OTHER.

SO HOW DID THIS STORY COME TO BE AN ISSUE?

>> SURE.

SO I LIKE YOU SAID AM A RACE AND JUSTICE UNIT REPORTER.

I COVER RACE ACROSS THE CITY, AND ONE OF THE WAYS THAT I THINK IS REALLY IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND -- TO UNDERSTAND RACE IN NEW YORK CITY IS UNDERSTAND THE CITY'S DEMOGRAPHICS.

HOW ARE DEMOGRAPHICS CHANGING?

HOW IS THE CITY'S POPULATION, YOU KNOW, DIFFERENT ETHNIC GROUPS AND SOCIAL GROUPS, WHERE ARE THEY MOVING?

AS I DUG INTO THE NUMBERS MORE I NOTICED A PRETTY STARK TREND OF A NUMBER OF NONHISPANIC BLACK NEW YORKERS DECREASING, LIKE, HAD JUST DUG MORE AND MORE INTO THE NUMBERS AND TALKED WITH PEOPLE ABOUT HOW -- HOW THIS CHANGE WAS MANIFESTING IN THEIR LIVES.

YOU KNOW, THIS IS SOMETHING THAT TALKING WITH PEOPLE IN BED STUY, ACROSS NEW YORK CITY, WE TALKED ABOUT GENTRIFICATION, WE TALKED ABOUT THESE KINDS OF MICROLEVEL NEIGHBORHOOD SHIFTS, BUT IT WAS WILD TO SEE THIS LARGER DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTING ACROSS THE WHOLE CITY.

>> AND SO -- AND THIS IS A QUESTION I WANT TO ADDRESS TO THE ENTIRE PANEL, BUT ARIA, I'LL START WITH YOU.

WHAT WERE YOU SENSING AS THE REASON WHY PEOPLE WERE JUST LIKE, THAT'S IT, I'M OUT?

>> SURE.

AND THAT'S -- THAT'S A TRICKY QUESTION TO TRY TO ANSWER.

I'M SURE SOCIAL SCIENTISTS RACK THEIR HEADS OVER THIS VERY QUESTION, THE PUSH AND PULL FACTOR, SO TO SPEAK.

BUT, YOU KNOW, AT THE END OF THE DAY, TALKING TO A NUMBER OF PEOPLE, ECONOMICS IS DEFINITELY PART OF IT, RIGHT?

THE FACT THAT, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A HOUSING CRISIS IN NEW YORK CITY THAT'S ALSO DISPROPORTIONATELY IMPACTING AFRICAN AMERICAN WORKERS IN THE CITY.

THIS IS BROUGHT UP AGAIN AND AGAIN, PEOPLE CHOOSESING TO LEAVE, TOO.

IT'S HARD TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH OF THIS IS DISPLACEMENT, HOW MUCH OF THIS THAT'S PART OF IT.

A NUMBER OF AFRICAN AMERICAN NEW YORKERS HAD COME -- HAD MIGRATED HERE, OR THEIR ANCESTORS MAI MIGRATED HERE IN THE GREAT MIGRATION, 1910 TO 1970.

SOME OF THE OLDER GENERATION ARE GETTING OLDER.

YOU WANT TO FIND A PLACE TO SETTLE DOWN, HAVE YOUR RETIREMENT DOLLAR GO FURTHER.

A LOT OF IT SEEMED TO COME DOWN TO ECONOMICS.

>> DR. BLAIR, I'M WONDERING FROM YOUR STUDIES AND EXPERIENCE LIVING IN THE CITY, WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON WHY WE'RE SEEING THIS SEEMINGLY EXODUS OF BLOCK NEW YORKERS?

>> YES.

I AGREE.

AS I WAS COMBING THROUGH THE NUMBERS, INCOME OVER THE LAST TEN YEARS AT LEAST, EVEN JUST LOOKING FROM 2010 TO 2020, IF YOU JUST TAKE THOSE CENSUS NUMBERS, AFRICAN AMERICANS, THEIR INCOME HAVE ONLY INCREASED BY, SAY, $5,000.

THAT'S A VERY SMALL NUMBER WHEN YOU LOOK AT HOW THE COST OF LIVING HAVE INCREASED OVER THAT LAST TEN-YEAR PERIOD.

AND SO NEW YORKERS, AT LEAST AFRICAN AMERICAN NEW YORKERS, IT'S JUST A MATTER OF INCOME STAGNATION.

THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO KEEP PACE WITH SOCIETY.

THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO KEEP PACE WITH RENT, WITH MORTGAGE, WITH THE COST OF FOOD, AND JUST THE COST OF LIVING OVERALL.

AND THEN ON TOP OF THAT TO RAISE A FAMILY, THE MAJORITY BEING SINGLE FEMALE HEADED FAMILIES, IT'S A DIFFICULT THING TO DO.

SO FOR SOME I WOULD SAY NEW YORK CITY IS STARTING TO BECOME A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, IF YOU WILL, AT LEAST FINANCIALLY.

>> WELL THEN BUILDING ON THAT POINT TO ANTHONY AND JOANNE, AGAIN, AS I MENTIONED IN THE INTRO, YOU WERE ESTABLISHED YOU RAN A RESTAURANT THAT PEOPLE KNEW AND LOVE IN A BLACK NEIGHBORHOOD OF BROOKLYN, AND YET YOU ALSO HAD YOUR REASONS FOR LEAVING.

I'M WONDER FIELD GOAL YOU COULD TAKE US THROUGH THAT DECISION PROCESS.

>> WELL, ONE OF -- WE HAD A VERY GOOD BUSINESS IN NEW YORK CITY.

CAPITAL TOUR BAKERY.

WE DECIDED TO LEAVE BECAUSE WE WANTED TO GROW OUR BUSINESS.

OUR BUSINESS BASICALLY, WE NEEDED A LARGER SPACE TO GROW OUR BUSINESS.

WE BASICALLY HAD A SMALL BAKERY, ABOUT 300 SQUARE FEET, SO WE NEEDED A LARGER SPACE TO GROW.

COVID HAPPENED, IT WAS TIME TO SHUT DOWN.

SO, THE SOUTH GIVES YOU OPPORTUNITIES TO PURCHASE -- WE MOVED THE NORTH CAROLINA, IT WAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO COME TO ROCKY MOUNT AND PURCHASE A NICE BUILDING FOR OUR BAKERY THAT WE COULD OWN VERSUS RENTING.

BECAUSE OUR PLAN FOR OUR BUSINESS SO TO OPEN UP SEVERAL FRANCHISE FOR OUR BUSINESS, AND YOU CAN'T DO THAT IN NEW YORK CITY.

WANTED PRODUCTION OF OUR PATTIES, WHICH WE'RE WELL KNOWN FOR, AND NEW YORK CITY DOESN'T TO SPACE TO DO THAT.

WE ALSO WANTED DIFFERENT QUALITY OF LIFE.

ME, MY FAMILY FROM SOUTH CAROLINA.

THEY MIGRATED TO NEW YORK CITY, BED STUY IN THE '40s.

SO I KIND OF WANTED TO GO BACK HOME TO WHERE MY FAMILY STARTED AND FINISH WHAT THEY STARTED.

THERE'S A LOT OF POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH.

THIS IS WHERE MY FAMILY'S FROM.

I NEEDED TO CONTINUE TO JOURNEY TO GET BACK WHAT WAS STOLEN FROM MY FAMILY BACK IN THE 1900s WHEN THEY LEFT SOUTH AND CAME TO NEW YORK CITY.

>> ARIA, THAT'S VERY INTERESTING THAT THERE SEEMS TO BE A LOOP ALMOST OF WHAT STARTED AS THE GREAT MIGRATION, PEOPLE RETURNING BACK TO WHERE THEIR FAMILIES LEFT TO MOVE NORTH IN THE FIRST PLACE.

AND I'M WONDERING IF ANY OF YOUR REPORTING WAS ABLE TO BEAR OUT WHY PEOPLE -- IT'S NOT JUST THAT THEY'RE MOVING SOUTH, BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE, AGAIN, ARE MOVING LEFT BACK IN THE '20s, '30s, '40s, SOMETIMES EVEN '50s.

>> RIGHT, AND IT'S WHAT SOCIAL SCIENTISTS ARE CALLING THE REVERSE GREAT MIGRATION, SO TO SPEAK.

FOLLOWING THIS 1910 TO 1970s TREND OF AFRICAN AMERICANS MOVING NORTHWARD TO PLACES LIKE NEW YORK CITY, CHICAGO, MANY AFRICAN AMERICAN NEW YORKERS AND FOLKS ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN THESE KIND OF MAJOR NORTHERN AND MID WESTERN CITIES ARE DECIDING TO MOVE SOUTH, AND TO BE CLEAR, PART OF A NUMBER OF BLACK NEW YORKERS ARE ALSO CHOOSING TO MOVE TO THE SUBURBS.

BUT IT IS THIS TREND THAT WE'RE SEEING OF A NUMBER OF TEAM DECIDING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD, AND THERE'S LOTS OF REASONS FOR THAT, RIGHT?

I THINK A LOT OF WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT RIGHT NOW, ECONOMICS, PLAYS INTO THIS, BUT PART OF IT CAN BE FAMILIAL TIES.

A LOT OF AFRICAN AMERICAN WORKERS AND FOLKS WHOSE FAMILY MOVED UP FROM THE SOUTH, YOU KNOW, IN THE LAST CENTURY, MIGHT STILL HAVE FAMILY DOWN THERE.

ANTHONY FOR EXAMPLE WAS TALKING TO ME ABOUT HAVING FAMILY AND MOVING -- YOU KNOW, VISITING THE SOUTH IN THE SUMMERS, AND THAT MIGHT ALSO FACTOR INTO WHAT WE'RE SEEING AS WELL, AND ALSO PEOPLE -- I'VE HEARD STORIES OF PEOPLE, YOU KNOW, COLLEGE STUDENTS FOR EXAMPLE, MOVING SOUTH, DECIDING TO STAY SOME PLACE AFTERWARDS, AND I THINK IT ALSO EMBARRASS OUT -- IMPORTANT TO SAY, THIS IS PART OF A LARGER NATIONAL SHIFT OF WE'RE SEEING INCREASING -- YOU KNOW, INCREASING POPULATIONS OVERALL IN PLACES LIKE -- YOU KNOW, IN TEXAS AND OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTH, TOO, SO IT'S NOT JUST FOR AFRICAN AMERICAN FOLKS NOT JUST FOR BLACK FOLKS.

IT'S A LARGER TREND WE'RE SEEING ACROSS THE BOARD.

>> WELL, OF COURSE -- AND I DO WANT TO GET DEEPER INTO THE ECONOMICS PART OF IT AND POLITICALLY, BUT CULTURALLY, DR. BLAIR, I WANT TO ASK YOU, PART OF WHAT SEEMS TO HAVE MADE SOME NORTHERN CITIES, IF YOU WILL, STAND OUT -- CHICAGO COMES TO MIND, BUT DEFINITELY NEW YORK CITY, HARLEM, BROOKLYN, VERY BIG IS HIP-HOP CAME OF AGE, IF YOU WILL -- CULTURALLY, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN IF THESE TRADITIONALLY OR AT LEAST FOR A LONG TIME BLACK NEIGHBORHOODS CEASE TO BE?

WHAT DOES THAT HAPPEN -- WHAT HAPPENS CULTURALLY TO NEW YORK?

>> CULTURALLY, YOU KNOW, IF -- IF PLACES -- PEOPLE, PLACES AND THINGS ARE WIPED OUT -- WE SEE BUILDINGS, MUSEUMS, ET CETERA, LANDMARKS NOT BEING THE SAME AS THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY, CHURCHES, ET CETERA, PARKS -- IF THOSE MOVE OR THOSE BECOME DIFFERENT SPACES, THERE'S NOTHING REALLY LEFT TO PASS DOWN TO GENERATIONS.

YOU KNOW, THANKFULLY AS YOU POINTED OUT WITH HIP-HOP, THEY'RE BUILDING A MUSEUM, BUT MANY OF OUR CHILDREN ALSO DON'T VISIT THESE CULTURAL PLACES.

THEY'RE NOT TAUGHT ABOUT IT IN THE SCHOOLS, AND SO CULTURALLY, IF WE DON'T WRITE ABOUT IT AND SPEAK ABOUT IT AND TELL THE STORIES, A LOT OF OUR HISTORY COULD BE GONE BEDFORD-STUYVESANT AND OTHER AREAS START TO DECREASE, IT COULD MEAN A SHIFT SOME PLACE ELSE.

SO WE SEE IT IN OUR SCHOOLS.

WE WON'T GET AS MANY AFRICAN AMERICAN TEACHERS TO TEACH THIS CULTURAL PHENOMENON.

WE WON'T GET STUDENTS TALKING TO EACH OTHER ABOUT, YOU KNOW, WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THEIR HOUSEHOLDS IN TERMS OF THEIR PARENTS AND THE TYPE OF MUSIC AND FOOD THAT THEY EAT.

AND SO CULTURALLY, WE COULD SEE A BIG VOID AS THIS CONTINUES TO GO ON.

>> WELL, GOING BACK TO ANTHONY AND JOANNE, I'M WONDERING -- YOU EXPLAINED YOUR REASON FOR YOUR DECISION TO LEAVE, BUT DO YOU STILL KNOW PEOPLE WHO ARE STILL IN YOUR OLD NEIGHBORHOOD AND HAVE THEY ALSO -- ARE THEY CONSIDERING MOVING OUT?

HAVE THEY SHARED WITH YOU WHY THEY MIGHT BE CONSIDERING LEAVING NEW YORK?

OR ARE THEY COMMITTED TO STAYING, COME WHAT MAY?

>> WE DO KNOW A LOT -- WE STILL HAVE A LOT OF FRIENDS.

WE ALSO HAVE FAMILY STILL LIVING IN NEW YORK CITY, BROOKLYN IN PARTICULAR, AND PRETTY MUCH ALL OVER THE TRISTATE AREA.

NEW YORKERS HAVE A -- THEY HAVE A HARD TIME THINKING ABOUT MOVING SOMEWHERE ELSE.

EVEN IF THEY'RE NOT ORIGINALLY FROM NEW YORK, THEY'VE ESTABLISHED, YOU KNOW, THEIR LIVING AND THE TYPE OF LIFESTYLE AND THEY REALLY LOVE IT, AND THEY'RE NOT THINKING ABOUT IT.

BUT THERE'S A SHIFT TO THAT CONVERSATION, BECAUSE WHILE THEY'RE NOT THINKING ABOUT IT, THEY'RE DEFINITELY FEELING THE ECONOMICAL IMPACT THAT IS, YOU KNOW, STRAINING ON THEM, SO THEY START HAVING THE CONVERSATION.

SO -- >> YEAH, THE QUESTION IS, LIKE, WHERE WE LIVE, WE STILL HAVE A BROWNSTONE IN BROOKLYN, AND WE STILL HAVE OUR COMMUNITY WE REACH OUT TO EVERY WEEK.

SOME PEOPLE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE BECAUSE THEY WANT LARGER BACKYARDS, THEY WANT CHEAPER MORTGAGE, THEY WANT CHEAPER RENT, THEY HAVE KIDS WHO ARE GETTING OLDER, THEY WANT A DIFFERENT LIFESTYLE.

A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE LEAVING, THAT WE SPOKE TO, BECAUSE OF THE LIFESTYLE.

THE SOUTH IS A DIFFERENT LIFESTYLE.

IT'S THE WEATHER, IT'S THE COMMUNITY.

THERE IS A HISTORY HERE ALSO WITH A LOT OF NEW YORKERS, YOU KNOW, DON'T KNOW ABOUT.

THIS IS WHERE SLAVERY HAPPENED.

THIS IS WHERE HARRIET TUBMAN RAN THROUGH HERE, SOUTH CAROLINA IS WHERE THE -- PEOPLE LIVE.

THE SOUTH IS WHERE I COME FROM, SO I'M GOING BACK HOME TO WHERE I'M FROM TO FINISH WHAT MY GRANDMOTHER, GRANDFATHER BEGUN.

THEY HAD LAND, PROPERTY, I CAME BACK TO CLAIM WHAT'S MINE.

JUST LIKE ANYBODY ELSE WOULD COME TO GET BACK WHAT'S MINE.

>> I WOULD JUST ADD, JENNA, WE'RE SEEING PEOPLE WHO THEN WE'VE SEEN PEOPLE THAT, YOU KNOW, ARE REALLY RETHINKING IT.

>> YEAH.

YEAH.

IT'S A DIFFERENT KIND OF -- WE LIVE IN A SMALL TOWN OF 50,000, SO IT'S VERY DIFFERENT THAN A PLACE LIKE NEW YORK CITY WHERE THERE'S MORE RESTAURANTS, THERE'S MORE, LIKE, BLOCK PARTIES AS YOU WOULD HAVE, AND JUST A DIFFERENT TYPE OF ORIENTATION OF A COMMUNITY.

IS THERE A LOT OF BLACK PEOPLE?

THE TOWN WE LIVE IN IS 30% BLACK, BUT IT'S A DIFFERENT TYPE OF ORIENTATION OF BLACK COMMUNITY.

>> AND THEY'RE ALSO OPENING UP MORE CULTURE.

>> CULTURE IS VERY STRONG IN THE SOUTH.

THIS IS WHERE A LOT OF US COME FROM, YOU KNOW?

>> WELL, THEN -- WHAT I DID WANT TO ALSO ASK, ESPECIALLY ARIA, HAVING REPORTED ON THIS STORY, IS WHENEVER WE TALK SOMETHING ABOUT BLACK NEW YORKERS, I DO WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT NOT ALL BLACK NEW YORKERS ARE AFRICAN AMERICANS.

THERE'S A WIDE DIASPORA.

I WAS WONDERING IF YOU WERE ABLE TO BREAK DOWN THE NUMBERS FURTHER TO GET A SENSE OF, IS IT REALLY AFRICAN AMERICANS, OR IS THIS SPECIFICALLY ANY OTHER GROUPS WHO MIGHT BE ACTUALLY GETTING A FOOTHOLD AND GROWING IN NEW YORK AS AFRICAN AMERICANS ARE CHOOSING TO MOVE SOUTH?

>> RIGHT, AND I WOULD ACTUALLY LOVE -- I'LL TACKLE THIS, BUT I WOULD LOVE FOR DR. BLAIR TO TOUCH ON THIS, BECAUSE SHE IS THE DEMOGRAPHIC -- BUT I MEAN, TALKING WITH HER, TALKING TO A NUMBER OF OTHER DEM GRAPHER, IT'S IMPORTANT TO KNOW THE BLACK COMMUNITY IN NEW YORK CITY, AT LEAST COMPARED TO OTHER MAJOR CITIES, IS REALLY DIVERSE.

THERE'S A NUMBER OF IMMIGRANTS.

THE REASON WHY -- THERE'S A REASON WHY I USE THE TERM SPECIFICALLY AFRICAN AMERICAN IN THIS STORY, BECAUSE ACTUALLY IN TALKING WITH DR. BLAIR AND CRUNCHING SOME OF THE NUMBERS, ACTUALLY THE BLACK COMMUNITY OVERALL, THAT IS THE PEOPLE WHO CHECK BLACK ON THE CENSUS, THAT COMMUNITY HAS REMAINED PRETTY STABLE.

IN PART BECAUSE OF A GROWTH OF IMMIGRANTS, AND I'D LOVE FOR DR. BLAIR TO DIVE IN MORE ABOUT THE KIND OF DYNAMICS THAT WE'RE SEEING HERE.

>> DR. BLAIR?

>> YEAH, SURE, IF I COULD JUMP IN.

SO, YES, WE HAVE ROUGHLY 30% OF THE POP LAS VEGAS THAT SAY THAT THEY'RE BLACK, BUT THAT JUST BLACK ALONE -- IT'S NOT THE SAME.

IT'S, YOU HAVECARIBBEANS.

NEW YORK CITY IN GENERAL OR BROOKLYN HAS THE LARGEST AFRICAN DIASPORA IN ALL OF NORTH AMERICA, BUT THAT CONSISTS OF AFRO CARIBBEANS, CONTINENTAL AFRICANS.

IT CONSISTS OF AFRO LATINO AND AFRO ASIAN.

WE OFTEN LEAVE THEM OUT.

THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT ARE SOUTHEAST ASIANS OR ORIENTAL ASIANS MIXED WITH CARIBBEAN.

CHINESE JAMAICAN FOR EXAMPLE.

YOU HAVE A LOT OF THAT GOING ON.

AND SO WE OFTEN FORGET THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE RACES IN NEW YORK CITY AND ALL THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY THAT SAY, YES, I AM BLACK AND SOMETHING ELSE.

OR I AM BLACK AND WHITE.

AND THAT'S A GOOD 10% THAT WE LEAVE OUT, AND SO INDIVIDUALS SUCH AS THE GUYANASE, RICH CULTURE, BUT SAY THEY'RE BLACK.

ALSO SAY THEY'RE INDIAN.

WE HAVE THE PAKISTANIS.

SAME THING.

THEN YOU HAVE A LARGE CARIBBEAN COMMUNITY THAT REALLY JUMPED ON THE IMMIGRATION WAVE IN THE 1960s AND MADE NEW YORK AND EAST FLAT BUSH AND A LOT OF OUR COMMUNITIES HOME.

NOT JUST HARLEM, BUT BRAZILIAN, THE NORTHERN BRONX, SOUTHEAST QUEENS.

AND SO YOU ALMOST COULD PICK A SPOT IN NEW YORK AND SAY, THIS IS WHERE THIS COMMUNITY LIVE.

RIGHT?

THESE ARE WHERE THE CARIBBEANS ARE IN THE NORTHERN BRONX.

THESE ARE WHERE BOTH THE AFRICAN AMERICANS AND CARIBBEANS ARE IN CROWN HEIGHTS.

AND YOU KNOW, YOU CAN SAY, THIS IS WHERE PEOPLE FROM THE SOUTH -- AND LET'S NOT FORGET, THAT RIGHT?

AFRICAN AMERICANS, WE HAVE NOT DIVIDED THAT GROUP, AND THAT'S WHAT WE'RE SEEING AS THE COUPLE POINTED OUT.

THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO SAID, I'M FROM THE SOUTH, BUT I WANT TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH, AND YOU'RE STARTING TO SEE THAT MIGRATION AGAIN.

SO IT'S NOT JUST AFRICAN AMERICANS OR BLACKS, BUT THERE ARE BLACK FROM DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHO ALSO HAVE A DIFFERENT CULTURE.

AND SO NOW THOSE ARE SOME OF THE MOST SHOCKING THINGS THAT I WAS SEEING.

OH, WOW, WE CAN'T JUST SAY AFRICAN AMERICANS, A MONOLITHIC GROUP, EVEN THOUGH WE KNEW BLACK WASN'T A MONOLITHIC GROUP.

NOW WE HAVE WITHIN THE AFRICAN AMERICAN COMMUNITY PEOPLE WHO ARE BORN IN AMERICA OR PEOPLE WHO JUST SAY, I AM AMERICAN, BLACK AMERICAN.

NOW YOU HAVE THIS DI DICHOTOMY OF PEOPLE FROM DIFFERENT RENALS WHO ARE SAYING, WELL, MAYBE IT'S TIME I MAKE IT BACK TO WHERE I AM FROM AND RECLAIM SOME OF MY -- OR INHERITANCE THERE.

>> HOW DO YOU SEE THAT AFFECTING THE CITY POLITICALLY?

WE'VE SEEN PARTICULARLY DEMOCRATS BUT ALSO TO A DEGREE SOMETIMES THE REPUBLICAN PARTY TREAT BLACK VOTE AS ONE SOLID VOTING BLOC, AND IF WE'RE SEEING DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES TO DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, DOES THAT -- DOES THAT DILUTE THE VOING BLOC IN NEW YORK, STRENGTHEN IT OTHER PLACES?

WHAT DO YOU SEE HAPPENING?

>> THANK YOU FOR THAT QUESTION, BECAUSE BLACK OVERALL, I WOULD SAY 80% TO 90% OF US, WE DO VOTE AS A BLOC, AND OFTEN YOU FIND THAT WHEN THERE IS A BLACK CANDIDATE IN ANOTHER RACE, THE BLACK CANDIDATE WOULD WIN BECAUSE OF THAT VOTING BLOC.

SO IT'S NOT AN ACCIDENT.

LET ME POINT THESE THINGS OUT FIRST, THAT WE HAVE A BLACK MAYOR, A BLACK PUBLIC ADVOCATE, A BLACK REPRESENTATIVE IN THE HOUSE OF CONGRESS -- HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES THAT'S SERVING AS OUR MINORITY LEADER.

THOSE ARE NOT BY ACCIDENT.

AND THE A.G., THE ATTORNEY GENERAL, ET CETERA.

BECAUSE WHEN YOU HAVE THIS CONGLOMERATE OF BLACK INDIVIDUALS IN ONE PLACE THEY TEND TO HAVE THE SAME POLITICAL VIEWPOINTS.

NOW, GOING FURTHER, AS I'VE SEEN IN RESTRICTING AND AS I'M DOING THE MAPS AND DEMOGRAPHICS, WHAT YOU START TO SEE IS, WAIT A MINUTE, WELL, DEPENDING WHERE WE DRAW THESE LINES AND WHERE THESE COMMUNITY BOUNDARIES ARE CUT, WE CAN SEE -- THIS IS WHERE I THINK ARIA AND I WOULD START TO AGREE.

WE CAN SEE THAT, HEY, WE DON'T HAVE THIS BIG BLOC ANYMORE, AND WHAT IF IN THE NEXT TEN YEARS WE ARE NOT ABLE TO ELECT A CANDIDATE OF CHOICE BECAUSE WE ARE NO LONGER THIS LARGE GROUP OF INDIVIDUALS?

AND SO THAT'S WHAT WE'RE FACING, INDIVIDUALS IN LEGISLATIVE SEATS.

YOU MAY STILL GET A CITYWIDE LEADER, EVEN A STATEWIDE LEADER AND OTHER BIGGER GROUPS, BUT AT THE CITY COUNCIL LEVEL, AT THE STATE LEGISLATIVE LEVEL, I THINK YOU MAY START TO SEE SOME CHALLENGES THERE.

>> ARIA, DO YOU ALSO SEE A POLITICAL SHIFT HAPPENING ALONG WITH THE DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT?

>> WELL, DR. BLAIR POINTED TO THIS IRONY RIGHT NOW THAT WE'RE -- AS THIS DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT IS HAPPENING, A NUMBER OF POLITICOS SAY THIS IS A TIME OF RISING POWER FOR BLACK NEW YORKERS, FOR AFRICAN AMERICAN NEW YORKERS.

LOOK TO CITY HALL.

LOOK TO, YOU KNOW, HAKEEM JEFFRIES, WHO IS THE NEW MINORITY LEADER IN THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF CONGRESS.

BUT THERE IS -- THERE'S THIS QUESTION OF WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT, YOU KNOW?

IF THIS DEMOGRAPHIC TREND CONTINUES, CAN THERE STILL BE DISTRICTS DRAWN, YOU KNOW -- WILL THERE STILL BE THE SAME NUMBER AND POWER OF DISTRICTS DOWN THAT FAVOR CANDIDATES DESIRED BY AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTERS?

AND I THINK IT'S ALSO IMPORTANT, TOO TO, NOTE THAT, LIKE WE SAID, THE BLACK POPULATION OVERALL OF NEW YORK CITY IS ACTUALLY NOT DECLINING, RIGHT?

IT'S STAYING PRETTY STABLE IN PART BECAUSE OF THE GROWING NUMBER OF AFRICAN IMMIGRANTS AND GROWING LATINO POPULATION, TOO.

WHAT WE SEE IS WHAT HAS EMERGED IN DIFFERENT INSTANCES IS DIFFERENT -- LIKE WE SAID, THERE'S NOT A MONOLITH OF THE BLOCK COMMUNITY IN NEW YORK SI, SO THERE MIGHT BE SOMETIMES TENSIONS THAT EMERGE BETWEEN DIFFERENT GROUPS OVER JUST DEMOGRAPHIC AND INTEREST DIVIDES, TOO.

AND SO FOR EXAMPLE, LIKE, WE SEE IN HARLEM, FOR EXAMPLE, THERE'S BEEN A SHRINKING AFRICAN AMERICAN COMMUNITY, SHRINKING BLACK COMMUNITY OVERALL.

RECENTLY THERE'S A REP THAT WON THAT STREET, HE IDENTIFY AS BLACK, AS DOMINICAN AMERICAN, BUT HE BEAT OUT AN AFRICAN AMERICAN CONTENDER AND RELACED A LONG-TIME AFRICAN AMERICAN CONGRESSMAN.

AND THERE WAS KIND OF A FEAR AMONG CERTAIN, LIKE, BLACK -- PARTICULARLY AFRICAN AMERICAN POLITICOS WHO ARE SAYING MAYBE THIS IS A MOMENT OF SHRINKING BLACK, AND WHAT THEY MEAN IS AFRICAN AMERICAN POLITICAL POWER.

IT'S TOUGH, BECAUSE HE IDENTIFY AS BLACK, TOO.

HOW DO WE RANGLE THE DIFFERENT INTERESTS OF VARIOUS BLACK COMMUNITIES ACROSS NEW YORK CITY?

SOMETIMES THERE'S ALIGNMENT, SOMETIMES THERE ISN'T.

>> ANTHONY AND JOANNE I'LL GIVE YOU THE FINAL WORD, BECAUSE WE ONLY HAVE 30 SECONDS LEFT.

BUT DO YOU FEEL AS THOUGH NOT ONLY THE COMMUNITY YOU'RE IN BUT THAT THE STATE, THE -- I DON'T KNOW, CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT OR WHATEVER, DO YOU FEEL AS THOUGH YOU COULD ALSO BE REPRESENTED PROPERLY BY MOVING TO NORTH CAROLINA?

>> UM -- I WOULD SAY YES.

I MEAN, DIFFERENT -- YOU KNOW, EVERY POLITICIAN -- BLACK, WHITE -- HAVE THEY OWN AGENDA.

I HAVE THE SAY THIS, IN NEW YORK CITY, OVER $80 MILLION WORTH OF PROPERTY WAS STOLEN IN THE LAST TWO YEARS DURING -- I WAS VERY INVOLVE IN THE STUDYING THE CASES.

SO BLACK, WHITE, DEPENDS WHAT THE POLITICIAN IS DOING.

YOU MAY HAVE THIS LEADERSHIP, BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN THEY'RE NOT PART OF GENTRIFICATION.

>> DEFINITELY A POINT TO BE MADE.

JOANNE IS THERE ANYTHING YOU WOULD LIKE TO ADD REAL QUICK?

>> TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION, I BELIEVE WE CAN BE WELL REPRESENTED HERE.

THERE IS A LARGE GROUP OF -- THERE'S A GOOD POPULATION OF BLACKS IN OFFICE, AND THERE'S EVEN, I WOULD SAY, LIKE -- YOU KNOW, THEY'RE GIVING OUT INCENTIVES FOR BLACK BUSINESSES AND STUFF LIKE THAT, SO I THINK WE'RE DEFINITELY -- >> THAT WAS ONE OF THE PLUSES, YOU GET INCENTIVE TO MOVE HERE AS YOU BUILD OUT YOUR BUSINESS.

THEY HAVE GRANTS.

NICE, HUGE GRANTS TO HELP YOU BUILD OUT YOUR BUSINESS.

>> YEAH.

>>> "METROFOCUS" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY -- SUE AND EDGAR WACHENHEIM III, FILOMEN M. D'AGOSTINO FOUNDATION, THE PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND, BERNARD AND DENISE SCHWARTZ, BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG,