
Midterm Election Forecast
Season 2022 Episode 30 | 26m 46sVideo has Closed Captions
Meg Kinnard and Maayan Schechter preview Tuesday's midterm election.
Meg Kinnard with The Associated Press and Maayan Schechter with The State Newspaper preview Tuesday's midterm election and we recap the Superintendent of Education debate.
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Problems playing video? | Closed Captioning Feedback
This Week in South Carolina is a local public television program presented by SCETV
Support for this program is provided by The ETV Endowment of South Carolina.

Midterm Election Forecast
Season 2022 Episode 30 | 26m 46sVideo has Closed Captions
Meg Kinnard with The Associated Press and Maayan Schechter with The State Newspaper preview Tuesday's midterm election and we recap the Superintendent of Education debate.
Problems playing video? | Closed Captioning Feedback
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Learn Moreabout PBS online sponsorship(opening music) ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ Gavin: Welcome to This Week in South Carolina.
I'm Gavin Jackson.
With only days until the 2022 election, we recap this week's State Superintendent of Education debate.
And Meg Kinnard with the Associated Press and Maayan Schecter with the State Newspaper tells us what to expect on Tuesday.
Thank y'all for joining me.
Great to be here.
Maayan>>: Great to be here, too.
Thanks, Gavin.
Gavin: So Maayan, let's start with you.
On a to talk about statewide races, specifically the governor's race.
We saw them debate last week.
We saw incumbent Republican Governor, Henry McMaster and Democratic challenger Joe Cunningham on the debate stage.
They've also been on the road this week making their final push to voters.
What are their final pitches sounding like?
What are they trying to get here?
What issues are gaining traction right now?
Maayan: Well, on the side of Governor Henry McMaster, who is seeking his second full term for those of us all three of us covered his 2018 governor's race, and I think we're hearing very similar very familiar themes from 2018.
He's talked a lot about teachers about education, obviously, the the legislature raise teacher pay this year.
He's talked a lot about the economy and jobs, which is something nationally Republicans are really focusing on and the governor who has been talking about this since probably day one of becoming governor has continued to repeat on the trail how South Carolina has made a significant comebacks as the COVID Pan... COVID 19 pandemic, when many people were out of work every week, it feels like we're seeing new press releases from the governor's offices, The governor's office about jobs being announced.
We saw something recently from BMW, which is making a huge investment in the state, something that Governor can tout.
On the other side, oh the governor has also been talking about crime.
Another, another topic that we see nationally Republicans also focus on, on the other side of the aisle, Joe Cunningham has really been focusing on just sort of this theme of freedom.
He's got this freedom agenda that he's been pushing these more kind of progressive policies that we've seen Democrats also wrap their arms around.
He's brought up same sex marriage.
This is particularly after the question was asked on the debate stage last week during the governor's debate, and McMaster said that he believed that marriage should be between a man and a woman.
Of course, McMahon... Joe Cunningham has also been talking a lot about the abortion debate that's been going on in the legislature.
He's talked a lot about betting and legalizing marijuana these these more sort of progressive policies that Joe Cunningham really believes need to be pushed the you know, down, down the line.
Yeah.
Gavin: Gotcha.
Yeah.
And it's gonna say, you know, it's kind of interesting to see some of those things as stories, the big issues and abortion, of course, being a big one as well, but one that we're really not seeing too much.
You know, we're not seeing the governor talk too much about abortion, obviously, it's not that big of a winning issue.
For them, it seems like and, again, Cunningham really kind of trying to hammer on that a little bit more so.
Maayan: Right, and I will add one one last thing, you know, something that I think is pretty important that the governor has been talking a lot about during this race is his relationship with the legislature.
The legislature obviously holds most of the power in the state if not all the power in the state.
The governor really has had the power the veto pen and the bully pulpit.
And so on the trail consistently, the governor has has talked about his relationship with legislators.
He's been pulling them out as he's made back to back stops in their district.
That's something that he has a little bit over Joe Cunningham, who obviously has not been in the statehouse and does not have as many relationships as the Governor has to get his priorities across.
Gavin: Yeah, McMaster definitely has a different relationship than even his predecessors have had with the legislature and you know, again, working together, getting things done, not really worried about credit, because they all seem to take credit anyway.
So it doesn't really matter there.
Meg I want to jump to you and talk about realistically, when we look at the likelihood of a Democrat... Democrat winning statewide in South Carolina, something we haven't seen for years.
This race, like so many others are rated solidly Republican.
What do you tell folks when they ask you do you think a Democrat could win?
Do you think Cunningham could win?
Meg: It's it is a question that comes up all the time, right, especially as we see these shifts happening in our neighboring states like North Carolina, which has elected statewide Democrats more recently than South Carolina has an in Georgia, which has one of the most hotly contested Senate races of this entire cycle.
South Carolina, as you note has not done that lately.
It's been more than 20 years since the state elected a Democrat as governor.
And it's been more than a decade since any Democrat was elected statewide.
There are a lot of reasons for this.
And I don't think we have enough time to go into all of them.
But you know, when you look at the control in the legislature, both chambers led strongly by Republicans as well as all of those statewide offices.
And when you talk to voters and hear about what issues are important to them, sure there are a lot of Democrats in South Carolina, we all covered the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, where there were 24 candidates at some point in the race.
And there were a lot of democratic voices playing roles, and who ended up winning that nomination.
But South Carolina is different than our neighbors.
And you know we only have one Democrat in Congress right now.
And that's Jim Clyburn, who is in the leadership and has a very powerful role.
But he's the only Democrat in our entire delegation of seven members of the House plus the two senators.
So I don't think it's going to be this necessarily this election cycle where we see Democrats really starting to change a lot of that in our elected offices.
That doesn't mean the time won't come politics is cyclical.
And so there are these waves that come and go, but for right now, South Carolina does seem to be still considered at least statewide, a solidly Republican state, Gavin: and Meg you were on a call with Congressman Clyburn this week too and talking about realities for Democrats, not only here in South Carolina, but nationwide, too, when it comes to Congress.
What was he saying?
What was he forecasting, Meg: Listening to whip Clyburn, who, again, is seeking his 16th term in the US House, he's been there for a total of, of 15 terms thus far.
And when he talks about this election, and when I asked him, What does it look like for Democrats?
He's kind of started casting it in more of a well, you know, elections are, it's not necessarily the result on election day or election night that is most important.
It's the overall battle for not just power, but how he termed it for our democracy.
This is a theme that we've heard from Democrats across the country, including President Biden this week in his speech that democracy itself is on the line in the 2022 midterms.
That sounds a bit hyperbolic, but it's something that even in the very beginning of his presidential campaign, Joe Biden was hitting on countering some arguments that he perceived from the Trump administration, which he cast as threats to overall democracy.
So even when Jim Clyburn is talking about the fate of his own party in the House, it seemed to sound like he was maybe preparing for the loss of power, and maybe not overall, necessarily, but certainly Democrats are anticipating that there'll be losing some seats, if not control overall of the chamber.
And maybe it's that big picture that they want people to be thinking about, and kind of preparing them for the election night results that may not go in their party's favor.
Gavin: And Maayan, let's switch back to statewide races to we just saw the candidates for Superintendent of Education debate last night.
That was Democrat Lisa Ellis and Republican Ellen Weaver.
They're vying to replace two term outgoing Republican superintendent education, Molly Spearman.
On November 8, what stood out to you during that debate, anything that really jumped out at me it wasn't too.
It wasn't too angry.
It wasn't too feisty or anything like that, you know, it was pretty, everyone kind of stayed in their lane.
There weren't too many jabs.
But there were clear differences, too.
So what was what were some of those that you saw?
Maayan: Well, I think the big the big thing that did not come up at all, which I was sort of surprised that Lisa Ellis did not take advantage of was talking about the credentialing issue, talking about Ellen Weaver's master's degree, which is something that's been dominating the superintendence.
Race for months, right.
That did not come up at all during during the debate.
But as you mentioned, most of the themes that came up most of the questions, the answers that came up were things we've heard most of this race, and we've heard their comments whether it was book bands, or were they side on vouchers, or were they started on school funding.
Lisa Ellis of course said that.
Schools are being underfunded here in South Carolina, while Ellen Weaver said that they're not they're being Miss funded, and that money isn't being spent wisely.
So I think we all kind of expected the answers to many of your and Seanna Adcox's questions.
Last night, of course, you know, the real thing is that voters are already starting to vote.
Early voting already began in South Carolina, of course, voters will go to the polls on Tuesday.
So I'm not sure exactly what probably stuck out the most to voters that would change their votes at last minute.
When they go to the polls.
I think all the all the answers.
Were kind of to be expected last night.
Gavin: Yeah.
And I want to say that, you know, we did lead off that debate last night with a question about, you know, what, um, what makes you qualify?
What experiences do you have to be superintendent of education?
I thought that might have been something to spur that debate about the whole background when it comes to having to have a master's degree, which has been contentious because Ellen Weaver got hers very quickly this year, which has been a big issue when it comes to qualifications to be superintendent education.
So kind of surprised that that didn't come up either Maayan, but then anything else jumped out to you or was that pretty much par for the course?
Maayan: I think the only other things and when we were talked about doing an audit of the Department of Ed, which sort of curious what the reaction was So that last night, and Lisa Ellis talked a little bit about school takeovers in school consolidation.
You know, there's been a lot of conversation, a lot of focus on school consolidation in the rural areas of the state, which is where we've seen most of those school districts consolidate.
But she really homed in on sort of the urban areas of South Carolina where there are multiple school districts, including here in the Midlands.
And so that was one takeaway that I had.
Gavin: And Meg switching to the congressional race.
The the most interesting when we say should say the most competitive one in South Carolina is the first congressional you got Republican incumbent Nancy Mace down there.
Who's running against Dr. Annie Andrew, she's a Democrat.
But kind of a quiet race.
It hasn't been too attention grabbing.
Obviously, there's been one debate which was very interesting, but we're seeing some big names.
Big last minute help for Nancy Mace, you wrote a story about this.
Tell us what's going on down there and the first congressional district?
Meg: Yeah, the general election in the first congressional district has not been as spicy perhaps as the GOP primary was, but certainly in this closing week, Nancy Mays is bringing in some heavy hitters, some well known names, both in her party outside of her party and then some rising names, some rising stars.
She's had Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who is a very notable up and coming Republican seen by a lot of people as a potential contender for his party's nomination and a future presidential cycle.
He has been stumping for her and bringing some money.
She's also having former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard and we all remember from her competition in the Democratic presidential nominating process here in South Carolina spent a lot of time.
she's going to be stumping with Congresswoman Mace as well.
And then the leading Republican in the House of Representatives, Minority Leader, Kevin McCarthy from California, is also coming to spend time and to campaign for Congresswoman Mace.
You know, in the conversations that I've had, with the congresswoman people on her team, as well as some supporters, they feel very confident.
It's not like they see this as a last ditch effort to maybe bring over some voters to her, but it's more of sort of portraying her as the best person to represent a broad swath of voters, Republicans, Democrats, and potentially some independents, all of whom we know are crucial to bringing victory to a candidate in a district that can be as purpley or swingy maybe as the first district, which that's the only one of our seats to have flipped in recent memory.
So that is certainly a closing argument that she's hoping to bring to voters here in this last week.
Gavin: And Meg kind of speaking of big names helping out in other places.
Tim Scott is our, another US Senator here.
He's up for reelection, but you really kind of wouldn't know it, because it's not like it's a big race, not like that Lindsey Graham race that we saw back in 2020.
Talk to us about that race.
Talk to us about what Tim Scott's doing.
We haven't really seen much on the campaign trail, because it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that he's gonna win that seat again.
Meg: This campaign is not the campaign of Lindsey Graham and Jamie Harrison and 2020 It's not $130 million plus race like we saw then, certainly Tim Scott is confident in his reelection.
I've heard you know, people kind of joking around with numbers, but they're like, Yeah, Tim Scott by 90, which I don't know about that.
But certainly he does feel comfortable in winning reelection.
He has said this will be his last campaign for Senate who knows what comes after that.
He's certainly been traveling to a lot of early other early voting states, in addition to South Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire stumping for other candidates in Georgia.
So Tim Scott is feeling very comfortable where he is right now.
And he at this point, I believe it's probably it's his race to lose his Democratic opponent.
State Representative Crystal Matthews has done some campaigning, but as has been noted before, had kind of a rough time of it in her own primary with some other information that was coming out about leaked audio and, and other things, you know, allegations that she had said things about voters that were unflattering.
We're not even really hearing some of that at this point.
So again, you know, Tim Scott is the incumbent, he is poised to be reelected for this.
What he has said will be his last term in office.
And then we'll see I don't think that he's, he's going to be dropping off of our our watching lists for other other potential elections.
Gavin: Yeah, we can talk about 2024 in a quick minute.
But Maayna just we have a few minutes left here on my ask you quickly about the abortion debate in the State House.
We saw some moves this week after conference committee meeting.
Nothing came out of that conference committee, but there will be another one on November 9th, the day after Election Day.
Tell us what's going on there.
Could there be a vote before this special session is over November 13?
Maayan: Yeah, it's really creating a lot of logistical scheduling fun for everyone involved.
So forget all the procedural stuff baggage that comes with this debate.
The real heart of the issue is that there is no compromise between the House and the Senate.
And there's not even a compromise between Republicans over how restrictive and abortion ban should be.
So like you mentioned, the conference committee made up of three House members, three senators, one from each as a Democrat both of tomorrow so the only women on the conference committee could not agree this past week over how restrictive to be the two proposals that were given both by Republicans would ban abortions at conception.
And as has been stated before, by Senate Majority Leader, Shane Massey, the chief Republican in the Senate, there are not the votes in the Senate to ban abortions before six weeks, he must have said this at least 20 to 30 times during the conference committee, both to legislators and then to reporters afterward.
And so the real issue is whether there can be any compromise on an abortion ban that would probably begin at six weeks, Senator Massie was clear that if we're going to pass anything, it probably needs to be the Senate version.
So yes, they're coming back the day after the election at 10 o'clock in the morning to discuss whether there can even be a compromise.
The Senate has gone ahead and scheduled session for an hour later, the house has scheduled session for the next day.
But there are two big ifs, the ifs are the conference committee can actually push anything out.
And then the other is if the house can actually pass anything.
So I mean, excuse me if the Senate can actually pass a bill.
So the house isn't even going to return if the Senate can't can't pass anything.
And usually we've seen after conference committees, both chambers show up and kind of ping pong, the legislation back and forth.
But it's seeming like both chambers are starting to set each other up so that they can casts a little bit of blame if this goes south, but well, we'll wait and see right now there absolutely is no compromise.
So we'll have to wait and see what's next.
Gavin: Yes.
And they will be watching when we start back in January, the legislative session.
Of course, we're pretty much out of time.
Now, I don't want to even talk about 2024 yet, because I know we'll have plenty of time to talk about in the future.
But we'll be definitely gearing up on November 9th Once these elections over the midterms are over the week, the long march to the 2024 nominating process, They'll be coming through South Carolina.
So we'll be watching and we'll be on the trail with the Associated Press and Maayan Schecter with the state newspaper.
Thank you guys so much.
This past week, SCETV, South Carolina public radio and the Post and Courier hosted of the candidates for Superintendent of Education, Republican Ellen Weaver and Democrat Lisa Ellis for debate in our Columbia Studios.
Here's a recap of some of the key moments from that debate.
Ellen: Well, this job is all about executive leadership.
While I greatly value the expertise and calling of our teachers in the classroom, this is a management role of a multibillion dollar state agency with over 1000 employees.
And so that leadership experience that I have had in managing large budgets and staffs, founding a nonprofit and serving in education policy on the Education Oversight Committee has given me a front row seat to understand the challenges that our education system faces, as well as the opportunities that are before us as a state.
I truly believe that being totally transparent and rebuilding trust, we can work together to make South Carolina the greatest education system in the country where again, every student has the opportunity to reach their full God given potential.
Gavin: Ms. Ellis, tell us more about your qualifications and your background to lead South Carolina schools.
Ms.Ellis:I'm a teacher.
Teachers are natural problem solvers.
When I think about the decisions that I have to make daily in the classroom for my students, it is ones where we deal with effective communication, critical thinking, and all of those important characteristics that come with it.
My experience as Director of Student Activities has been handling budgets.
What I have seen through my 22 year experience in the classroom is the fact that what's happening on the policy level is not helping students and teachers down in the trenches or in the classrooms.
And so I believe that the teacher voice, understanding what is really going on in schools, and how best to fix that needs to come up to the policy level.
You know, with that with bringing all of our stakeholders to the table and including our teachers, our superintendents, our parents, our students, that's how we can really solve our problems in public education.
But we have to be willing to listen to what actually the problems are and not what some people think that the problems are.
Gavin: Ms. Ellis, this next question is for you.
This school year, the state budget sets minimum pay for a first year teacher at $40,000.
That's $10,000 higher than six years ago.
How much higher should it be to attract and retain more teachers?
And how will you persuade legislators to fund your proposal?
Ms.Ellis: I think that it's important to understand that while setting the minimum teacher salary schedule up to 40,000, and adjusting it, it does not mean that teachers saw a $4,000 salary increase this year.
For example, I saw 1700, which equates to $11 a paycheck.
Just to give you an idea of what that looks like, our school cafeteria, my lunch, salad, cost $6.
So I think it's important for us to understand that when we talk about increasing the salaries, that not all teachers have seen that over the policy.
I, you know, I think we have to really look at compensating our teachers and comparing the compensation for their professional degrees against all industries.
We're no longer competing against other education, we're competing against all jobs that exist out there.
And so if you want to make it competitive, you have to look outside of education and look at it that way.
For example, a teacher who majors in chemistry can go and be a chemistry teacher, or they can go and work for a pharmaceutical company and make twice as much.
So you've got to look at attracting your best and brightest by paying for it.
Over the last four years, we've had enough budget surplus to be able to solve that problem, and yet the General Assembly has chosen not to.
So I think that we have to encourage, if we want to retain and recruit teachers that are great and really there for our students, we have to stop looking at the way that we've always done it and look at how we, you know, may move forward, Gavin: All right.
Ms. Weaver, to you about teacher pay.
Ellen: Gavin, that's a great question.
And I think you hit on a really critical point, which is, we can talk about the problems and my opponent has rightly identified many of the challenges that our classroom teachers face as a classroom teacher, but talking about the problems is not the same thing as solving them.
You have to actually be able to work with the General Assembly, with the governor, with superintendents, and parents and educators around the state in order to actually get anything done.
I have spent the last 10 years of my life building trusted relationships with the leaders in the General Assembly, who are the ones who run this state and who hold the purse strings, and who are going to be the final deciders of whatever we do in education policy, including teacher salaries.
As Superintendent, I would like to see us get our teacher salaries raised up not just to the Southeastern average, which is where we currently are, but to the national average over the next five years.
And one of the ways that I'm going to do that is to find savings in our current education budget.
People ask me all the time, "Ellen, is education in South Carolina, underfunded?"
And I have to say, "No, it's misfunded."
In the conversations that I've had with teachers across the state, they tell me about books that are sitting in closets that have been unopened, technology that's not being used.
We know that there is so much waste and inefficiency within the system, and as the State Superintendent of Education, I'll start by getting my own house in order at the State Department of Education, top to bottom audit to understand how money is currently being spent, where we can find savings so that we can return that money to the classroom to support our students and our teachers.
Seanna: So, evaluations earlier this year determined that it would cost more than $1.5 billion just to meet our most critical needs, construction needs, in our poorest districts.
The legislature in the last couple of years has been sort of chipping away at that.
What do you think the state's responsibility is in terms of school construction?
And are you willing to push the legislature to continue with a yearly investment?
Ms.Ellis: I would always push the legislature to do what is in the best interest of students.
You know, I mentioned earlier that we have school buildings that are 50, 70, 100 years old.
You know, there was a school in Lee County where the ceiling caved in.
And, you know, those are things that when you talk about academic learning for students, if they don't have a safe building in which to learn, that is free from mold and mildew, and, you know, those sorts of things, then you can't expect them to focus on learning.
I think that as a state, and it is written into our Constitution, we have an obligation to educate our students, and that starts off with safe school buildings.
When we talk about school safety, a safe school building, safe and secure school building is one of the ways to make sure that that happens.
For too long, our state has neglected our school buildings around the state, and now they're paying the price because what would have cost much less years ago is now costing more and more.
I do think that we have a responsibility, the legislature has a responsibility to fund education.
And they haven't done that since 2008.
And we see the price that our students are paying because of it.
Gavin: Ms. Weaver?
Ellen: I do believe that it is a responsibility of the state to ensure that our students have safe and secure learning environments wherever they are in this state.
There is so much money that is currently in our education system.
And I'd like to see us make efficient use of the money that we already have in the system before we just start throwing money at problems.
It seems like that too often is the call and the default of many in the education status quo, such as my opponent, who always go to more money as the answer.
I think that there are many things that we can do at the state level, through the Office of School Facilities, to look at our buildings across the state to develop a priority list and then to go to the General Assembly to get that list funded.
But again, that's going to actually take someone who is willing to work with the General Assembly who has the relationships to get things done, not someone who has been adversarial and really done nothing but burn bridges over the last four years.
Gavin: I don't know exactly if that qualifies for rebuttal, but assuming, maybe.
Ms. Ellis: That would, I would like to make a rebuttal.
I, I find it so ironic that I'm considered the status quo when I'm the low man on the totem pole and have been fighting to have my voice heard for four years about the problems in education.
The status quo is not me.
The status quo, the teachers who we are the ones who are fighting hard for our students.
When we're talking about funding, I think it's important for us to understand that our General Assembly has underfunded our schools since 2008 to the tune of $700 per student last year.
So when you're consistently underfunding, you cannot expect students and teachers to have success.
That is the role of the superintendent is to push for proper funding for our schools.
Can we change some of the funding?
Absolutely, but first of all, we need to make sure that we're fully funding it.
Gavin: To stay up to date with the latest news throughout the week.
Check out the South Carolina lead.
It's a podcast that goes on Tuesdays and Saturdays that you can find on southcarolinapublicradio.org or wherever you find podcasts for South Carolina ETV Gavin Jackson, Be well, South Carolina.
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