♪♪♪ male announcer: Funding for "The Hinckley Report" is made possible in part by the Cleone Peterson Eccles Endowment Fund.

♪♪♪ ♪♪♪ Jason Perry: Good evening and welcome to "The Hinckley Report."

I'm Jason Perry, Director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics.

Covering the week, we have Derek Brown, partner with Lincoln Hill; Heidi Hatch, anchor with KUTV 2 News; and Spencer Stokes, president of Stokes Strategies.

So glad to have you with us.

A lot happening in politics in the state of Utah, a lot happening locally as people start looking at their candidates.

I want to start talking about some conventions that are happening and Derek, I think we're going to start with you 'cause you've had to be in charge of conventions on the Republican side of the aisle for awhile.

Some very big conventions happening the state of Utah, particularly in Davis County, 10 counties this past week had their conventions, more coming.

Talk about what happened right there as we start setting the stage for some of the other counties that are coming up.

Derek Brown: Well I think what's interesting is the caucus night has everything to do with what happens at convention.

And this year one of the interesting dynamics is no one really knew when caucus was.

I mean, it was a perfect storm of sorts.

In fact, there was an actual storm as well that night I mean in Davis County.

It snowed on caucus night.

And so you have a perfect storm where people don't necessarily know when it is, where it is, the dates have changed, it's a different date from the Democrat Party, and that has everything to do with the outcomes.

And I think the outcomes of caucus night had everything to do with a convention where I think there was a lot more of the sort of hard liner influence that took over and you saw that in some of the results.

Jason: Spencer, it's always interesting to see what happens is you go to the convention because that is a byproduct as Derek just talked about.

The people that show up for the caucuses themselves.

Talk about what we saw in Davis County with the people who showed up and there were not many people in those caucus nights, which means sort of bigger influence from some of those delegates that are chosen.

Tell us what you saw there that may give an indication of what's coming.

Spencer Stokes: It didn't help that I think for the first time in my memory, Derek maybe knows different, but that the parties did not align on the same night.

So the Republican caucus was on a Tuesday night in a Democrat caucus was later.

And so you didn't have the the joint media, the joint press, the joint on the caucus.

I didn't hear in my local congregation any announcement of it which has happened typically in the past.

And so, then you had the storm but at convention you have the hard core people at convention.

And this is something that I think is a tactic of very conservative folks.

They are always going to go to their caucus, to their convention.

They're gonna show up at the primary.

And you know the state convention, they try to debate everything for as long as they can, and let all the people who have a soccer game to go to or a life.

They leave the convention and you end up with 30% by the end of the convention so.

But you did see some-- there were more, in my opinion, there were more conservative folks that decided to run and challenge incumbents than I've seen in the past.

And they did better at the conventions.

And I think what largely what happens is people say well you've already got your signatures, you're going to be on the ballot anyway.

So I'm going to vote for this person who won't make it to the ballot otherwise.

And so we'll have a primary.

Jason: Let's talk about a couple of those 'cause interesting what happened in Davis County.

So you have some kind of just some long terming-- long term members of the Senate for example, Senator Jerry Stevenson moved to a primary.

You had Steve Handy, who actually lost there and so, I'm kinda curious some of those more moderate candidates either forced to a primary and one case out.

What does that mean going forward to who we're going to see during the primaries?

Heidi Hatch: Well, I think the interesting part here is I think there's a lot of play over the last four years.

We've kind of gotten out of the practice of going to the caucus convention system.

Now you can have those primaries going on because you can get the signatures and get on the ballot.

And I think over the last couple of years, especially, I think there's been a lot of frustration within the party or people who are stuck at home thinking about do I like what's going on with my government?

And so I think that maybe you're seen a more conservative, you know, far right person on the right in the same on the left.

And so, I think it sort of feels tea party ish again, where we were dealing with back in 2009, 2010 ish.

So I always liked the idea of having more options on the ballot, but definitely makes it harder for people, who you know are used to having their seat or going.

And I'm excited to see how it plays out because like I said, you know the caucus convention system used to be that way, you know, or no way at all.

And now there's a lot more options, which means we'll have more options on the ballot, and it certainly could change representation for people who chose not to show up or thought, you know, my showing up doesn't really matter anyway.

Spencer: I think I agree with with Heidi, but a lot of times I think we try to assign some kind of political movement to what happens and largely sometimes it's that people get out worked.

I know that the candidate that was running against Steve Handy went to everybody's doors and was having conversations with them.

I don't-- I didn't hear the same thing about Steve Handy.

I think Jerry Stevenson thought well, you know, I've done a good job and I've lived here all my life and so maybe didn't do as much as he should have to secure the delegate nomination.

So a lot of times I think we try to assign some political movement to whether or not a person worked harder than the other or there was some movement happening rather than working harder than the other person.

Heidi: So they were just relaxed at that point.

Derek: Can I add but as the state party chair people-- said you like that process of the convention caucus?

And I will say I love the process, but it really has everything to do with the turn out.

The more people that participate, the better the result.

And I think if you have a very slim turn out you see a lot of these things that they've just mentioned sort of come to fruition.

And I think that you have a small group that tends to have sort of an outsized influence.

Maybe what you see right now.

Spencer: The highest turn out in post tea party year, which was 2010, was the year that Orrin Hatch was on the ballot and everybody said Oh, Orrin just turned so many people out.

It had nothing to do with that.

It had to do with the LDS Church made an announcement that said we will not be holding any meetings in our building on Tuesday night, which was a clear indication you better show up at your caucus.

And the caucuses were overwhelmed, which then more people tended to give a more moderated view, a broader view of what the Republican party looked like, and and that was largely.

It wasn't because Dave Hansen was a master.

He's a great-- he's a great operative but it was because the letter said there will be no build-- there'll be no meetings in our buildings on Tuesday night.

Heidi: And you knew where dad wanted you to be that night.

Derek: This year was exactly the opposite of that.

Jason: Derek, before we leave, I just want to ask you because you are uniquely qualified to talk about this and it will come up through a couple of our discussions today too.

You had to live through the issue about signature gathering and whether or not.

I don't wanna bring up too much pain for you, but-- Derek: Just coming through that.

Jason: I know you are, so did that issue come up in the Davis County Convention at all?

And is it gonna be an issue that comes up going forward in Salt Lake and Utah County.

Derek: You know, it was a huge issue and it was probably the thorniest issue I dealt with as the state party chair, but I think it's less and less of an issue.

I think when you have a smaller and smaller group of individuals who have what seems to be or is perceived to be an outsized influence, I think people are now starting to see signatures as a moderating influence over all.

And so I think the stigma of all this person collected signatures.

Therefore, they're a bad person.

You should vote against them.

I think those days are fast coming to an end and I think you're going to see less of that moving forward.

And so I know they use that in the Davis County, but that wasn't really, I mean, I don't think that was that big of an issue.

Spencer: The divisiveness though within the party went away when the people who were divisive that had some money and stopped giving tend to push it off the table.

I mean, if I'm an activist, a party activist, my issue would be I don't believe Republicans or Democrats should be able to vote in Republican elections.

That's what their new mantra ought to be.

You can vote in a Democrat primary or Republican primary, but how would the Democrats feel if all the Republicans went over and voted in the Democrat primary and vice versa?

And so if I were grassroots conservative, hardcore Republican, that would be my new issue rather than gathering signatures.

Heidi: And it seems to be there's a lot of people mad about that.

Jason: This is going to play-- be a play in the Republican primary and so Heidi, we just finished the Hinckley Institute of Politics Deseret News just finished a polling to see how these candidates are doing.

I want to talk about the Senate race.

Senator Mike Lee's race in particular.

I want to give you a couple of numbers to get a comment about where you think Mike Lee is based on these numbers.

And the question was if the Republican primary were held today and all the candidates who have filed on the Republican side were in this poll, 67% said they would vote for Mike Lee.

And keep in mind I should say these are people say I will register as Republican or I am registered as Republican.

And I plan to show up.

67%, Mike Lee, 19%, Becky Edwards, Ally Isom at 4%, Evan Barlow at 6%.

I'm just giving you the top candidates in terms of their percentages.

Heidi: So the interesting thing is I think there's no such thing as bad press in an election year right now as long as it's not too bad press, but Senator Mike Lee is a name that people know.

He's a household name.

And so in polls he's going to be a lot higher and he's going to have an, I think a lot better chance.

Interestingly enough when you look at social media, there's been a big push I think from some of the moderates and even some on the left for Ally Isom or Becky Edwards, who obviously had put in the work.

They've got the signatures to be there, but I still think that Senator Lee really has, you know, a couple steps ahead of them because he's got name recognition.

He's in the Senate right now.

He's being loud, even if it's not about things that everyone loves.

People are talking about him and what he's doing and how he's voting right now.

Spencer: I was more interested that Evan Barlow, who hasn't done a thing was ahead of Ally Isom who's been campaigning all over the state.

And I've come to the conclusion that people think it's Haven Barlow not Evan Barlow or Evan McMullin-- Jason: Very interesting, let's see how this plays in terms of the signature gathering because interesting Senator Mike Lee has already had his votes, his signatures approved and Ally Isom, Derek, just announced this week that she was also.

Becky Edwards is also planning on Derek: She's in the process as well.

Jason: So she's getting close is what I understand as well.

How does this play out when you know at least those three people are guaranteed a spot on that primary list?

Derek: Well, I think the reality is still would've come that's sort of what Heidi was saying.

People know who Mike Lee is.

They know what he stands for even if they don't necessarily agree with all of his issues, I think when when it comes to the actual voting, they know where he stands.

And even if you don't like him, you know where he stands, and I think that means something and that's one of the reasons that I think he'll be just fine in a primary.

I think the real interesting dynamic will be post primary because now you have a lot of these high profile Democrats effectively saying to fellow Democrats, let's not vote for a Democrat.

In fact, let's not even have one on the ballot.

And so that's another dynamic that I think may be even more interesting moving forward.

Heidi: That's gonna be the wildcard because I can't imagine the conversations that are going on with Kale Western right now as a Democrat thinking you know, I'm putting my time, my energy, and my money into this and then we've got the Ben McAdams and Jenny Welts and probably the two biggest names for Utah Democrats right now who are saying forget about them and let's back Evan McMullin, which is really interesting because I think in some regards, Evan McMullin, when he ran last time for president was just anything but vote and now all of sudden he's got to be something instead of anything but.

Derek: He's still anything but.

He still anything but Mike Lee.

So he doesn't really stand for anything that I'm aware of yet.

Spencer: But it's different-- it's different being anything but if it's Mike Lee versus Donald Trump and so I think.

Now look I would be as a party, as a party regular, if I were a Democrat, I would be embarrassed with this movement because, you know, the look I respect the party, the Democratic party for their principles, and they have some, and they have traditionally been, you know, on the opposite side of Republicans on a couple of issues and that would be pro life versus pro choice, guns versus some control around guns.

Evan Mcmullin is-- wants to overturn Roe v. Wade and is pro second amendment.

How do you nominate that person as a Democrat or not put your Democrat forward, who has the same principles as you have?

And Furthermore, there are 40% of the ballot, 40% of the races this year in the-- that were-- that went unfilled by Democrats.

So you have a person who actually filed as a candidate in this race and they want to throw him off.

They don't want to nominate.

Derek: He's actually a good candidate.

And you can imagine this behind the scenes conversations where they're basically saying we want you to not run.

We don't want you in and you can imagine him, saying wait, this is you're saying that you should not have the Democrat and we should through our weight behind the guy who specifically tweeted we should repeal Roe v. Wade?

And that should be the Democrat support?

Wait, come on.

Heidi: If you end up lining up whether you take Becky Edwards, Ally Isom, Senator Mike Lee, you take Evan McMullin.

If you were to take their votes, I think we were look two or three years down the road I think they would very much align and there'd be a few issues that are kind of the hot topics that end up on the news on your nightly headlines.

They might differ but even when you line up Senator Mike Lee and Senator Romney, who seem like they're in vastly different parties, 85% of the time they vote the same way with their party.

They're gonna vote the same way.

Spencer: Romney voted more with Trump than Mike Lee has voted with Trump.

Now I think the biggest question is which party will Evan McMullin caucus with because that well, he has to say he's going to, and you don't get a committee.

He hasn't done that but you don't get a committee assignment unless you've caucused with one of the two.

Now do the Democrats really wanna say at their convention we're gonna go-- we're going to bet on this guy.

It's gonna be close, it's right now it's 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, 2 Independents.

The two Independents caucus with the Democrats thus the Democrats are in majority.

If he doesn't-- if he says I'm not caucusing with either, I'm above the fray.

How does he get a committee assignment?

Heidi: If you're above the fray, what difference can you make?

Which is very little.

Derek: Everyone in the United State Senate has done a committee.

Jason: So, let's talk about it.

I wanna break those numbers down 'cause Heidi, you alluded to it, because we did ask this very question.

If Senator Mike Lee is the Republican nominee, who would you vote for the candidate coming forward, and this is the interesting number 43% of Utahns said they would vote for Mike Lee, 19% Evan McMullin, and as you referenced a moment ago when he ran for President.

He was just over 21%.

Kael Weston at 11%, 24% don't know at this point.

Heidi: And I think the polling numbers are gonna be interesting to watch because I think there was a big push for Evan McMullin.

I think in Utah, we thought you know what might be the one time that we see a third party candidate win but when it came down to it I think a lot of people who didn't want to vote for Trump held the nose and voted for him because they were worried about not having that Republican representation or what they wanted or-- So I don't know.

When it comes down to it I think people are used to checking their R box or their Democrat box and I think that people, who may be saying right now that they would vote for Evan McMullin may not when it comes down to it in the actual November election, when real issues are being talked about, kids are back in school, and they're thinking through the issues.

Will they take the chance?

I don't know.

Jason: So interesting.

We've talked a little about influence today too and we talked about where we will have that influence.

I wanna get to another polling question that I thought was so interesting about influence in the state of Utah, and we did ask Utahns who they felt, what elected leader or group of leaders has the most influence.

And Derek, I'm gonna start with you on this one 'cause we asked about some of our key leaders in the and state, and this is so interesting, 32% of Utahns said the Governor has the most influence, 33% said legislative leaders.

That's very interesting how it kinda split both ways.

Derek: It is and I think it's a lot of it is who you're talking to, I mean, a lot of times the average person will have more of a connection perhaps with their legislator, but still it remains largely unknown I think for most people who their legislator actually is.

In fact, when I was first elected to the house, I had one of the house leadership members say to me.

Spencer: I'd forgotten that, Derek.

So see, you're right.

Derek: Point in case right there.

What's interesting, I actually had a leadership member that said to me, Derek, if you ever think that you're like really important or whatever, now that you're here in the House.

He said know that probably 2% of the people in your district know who you are and he goes and when you've been around as long as I have, he goes it goes up to about three, maybe four.

So people don't necessarily know who their House or Senate member is and so that's why I find those numbers really interesting because the governor obviously as much more high profile when it comes to media and I think general influence.

Jason: So, Spencer, I wanna--you have a comment first?

Spencer: Go ahead.

Jason: So I want to see how this may have changed over time because over the last two years, we have seen a lot more of our legislature in terms of big issues, but also I'm just kinda curious 'cause in 2018 Utahns voted to give them the power to call themselves back into special session.

Has that change the power dynamic between the Executive Branch and Legislative Branch?

Spencer: Look the power dynamic went out the window during Jon Huntsman administration, and it hasn't ever come back.

I can't believe that Governor Herbert didn't just kicking and screaming speak to the media and to the public about this separation of powers calling back into special session, but I will tell you the most interesting thing about those numbers.

We typically think that the governor has the bully pulpit and they can go out and speak to people.

And those numbers don't indicate that.

Those numbers don't indicate that the governor has a pulpit to bully from.

And that is, I think that is what you're getting to that the legislature has become the governmental entity, the branch of government that runs this state.

And the governor is largely, you know, an ambassador or PR person, a ribbon cutting person.

And the-- all of those, the erosion of the Executive Branch has occurred and it really is-- it's-- I don't think it's healthy that each branch isn't strong, but those numbers indicate that the general public believes that the bully pulpit doesn't exist.

Jason: Interesting-- Derek: You see this every fall when the budget numbers come out from the governor and he says here's my budget.

Here's what I think we should do and the legislature effectively takes it and says oh, that's cute.

Spencer: That sound you hear are the paper shredders firing up.

Heidi: And I think actually the governor has been doing a good job at getting his messaging out on issues he's wanted to but I think they've been picked up more possibly by the national media on some of these transgender issues happening in schools in his moderation, but I don't know if it's been heard and accepted as much within the state legislatures, you know, had the bully pulpit to some extent there and I don't know if Utah when they voted to give power to the legislature to put themselves back in session that power of grace call you know to do.

I don't know if voters really knew what they were doing.

I was really surprised when that passed and maybe I'm not giving voters enough credit but I was surprised that, you know, balance shifted.

Spencer: No opposition.

Nobody spoke out against it.

Heidi: Which was strange to me and so I don't know if people didn't truly understand what balance it changed, but I do think it has given more power to the legislature.

Jason: So interesting, Heidi, to your point here just what do you make of this 'cause when you break it down by your by party, the Democrats, 42% of them said it's the legislature.

The Republicans said it was the governor, by a small amount, 42% of the Democrats, what do you make of that?

Heidi: I don't know, I guess we all see what we want to see sometimes but I can see how that makes sense, but I do think that legislatively there is some power there right now that maybe the governor didn't have.

I know that this time the legislature was closing out with some hot button issues like the transgender issue that was two days before the caucus, which was right before the conventions, and so the legislature had a little bit a power of its own to decide what the talking points were going to be when they met with people at the caucuses two days later.

And then they'd conventions coming right after.

So I think they had some power that otherwise maybe people hadn't thought about.

Spencer: I think what you see in those numbers, Jason, is Democrats typically don't like the public policy that comes out of the Legislative Branch in a conservative two-thirds majority Republican Legislative Branch.

And so they're very hyper focused on the policies that come out of there and that's why I think their percentage is higher.

Jason: I want to switch gears for a second even though it's still connected in some way.

Talk about just Covid.

We're gonna talk about Covid for just a minute because something's happening in Utah and Derek, we asked Utahns as part of our poll what they thought about the Governor's response, which really as of yesterday.

The state of Utah is no longer going to daily report Covid numbers.

Covid number of the cases, the hospitalization rate, or the death-- the death count.

That's not happening anymore and Utahns seem to agree that it's appropriate to start treating Covid more like any other disease sort of limited impact.

In fact, 77% of Utahns said, yeah, we're ready for us to kind of get back to normal.

Get rid of those daily sorts of reminders.

Derek: And I think you're seeing that not just in Utah, but nationally.

In fact, I was on two different flights yesterday and as you started the flight, the flight attendant on both talked about the mask mandate and use the word unfortunately.

She said unfortunately, we still have a mask mandate.

So I think there's this perception out there that I mean, there's Covid fatigue and I think.

In fact yesterday, the New York Times said that one of the big problems they have now is we have all these booster shots.

We have the vaccines.

We have everything ready to go.

We have the supply.

We no longer have demand.

People don't want it.

So we now have a demand problem.

And I think we see that in Utah.

We see that across the country and I think the fatigue has set in.

And I think people are ready to move on.

Jason: To this very point, Utah's one of 20 states that has joined a lawsuit to try to end masks for example on transportation, including as you mentioned on airplanes.

Heidi: Senator Mike Lee has been pretty vocal about that and I think there's 10 airlines that are calling for that now.

And I think largely for them, it's business.

They don't want to go to work every day and have their flight attendants fighting with people because when you're at home and you can go to Target, and go to school, or go to work wherever you want, and you don't need a mask and you feel like it's over, and then you get to have to get on a plane and wear a mask or not wear a mask, or you want your nose to sneak out and breathe a little.

I think it's a big fight for them.

I'm sure it's frustrating.

And so I think that's why a lot of people are calling on the president right now to say, okay, let's just get it done.

And when you see pictures coming from G7 meetings or NATO meetings with some of the, you know, most important political people in the world meeting together, chatty and high fiving, hugging without their masks, people are like okay, let's just be done with it and move on.

Spencer: I think there's some great things though that came out of Covid.

If you can say that.

I think our research and our ability to get a drug to market quickly and the type of vaccines that were developed are going to-- they were game changers for the future.

You know it was awful we went through this.

But we're not going to be ill prepared like we were this time.

And so, you know, look in another hundred years they'll have another one of these and we'll we'll have to deal with it and hopefully the research will have proven to be sufficient.

Jason: Interesting Derek, was we asked Utahns when you think life will get back to normal.

It's interesting we've been asking this person longitudinal data through most of it.

It's interesting, 65% of Utahns just last week said we're able to get back within the next year.

They don't think it's gonna be longer than 12 months.

Derek: I think so, I think we're seeing the end of that now and I think most people are acting.

I mean, it's in fact for most of us sort of participating in most things in our life, we don't really see anything involving Covid.

I mean, we sort of feel like it's-- people who are least acting like it's over whether in fact it is from a number standpoint, I don't know that that's the case yet but I think we're gonna see that here in the next couple of months if not.

Spencer: Did you give them a choice?

Because I think they would have all said tomorrow.

Heidi: Depends on how you define normal too because getting back to doing your normal activities.

I think normal isn't going to be normal for a long time.

I think we're gonna see the domino effect of how our kids did in school or mental health problems or drug and alcohol problems.

I think we've created a whole new set of problems we're going to have to deal with that aren't our normal.

Supply chain, everything else.

Derek: Inflation from all the money that Covid sort of forced us to put out there.

Jason: Heidi, our last response this to-- it was to Spencer's great point, we did 17% of Utahns said I'm back to normal now.

Heidi: And I think a lot of people may have said I've been back to normal the whole two years doing whatever the heck I want.

So interesting that-- Derek: Or where they fell from a party standpoint.

Jason: That's gonna have to be the last comment there.

Thank you so much for the great insights this evening and thank you for watching "The Hinckley Report."

This show is also available as a podcast on PBSUtah.org/HinckleyReport or wherever you get your podcast and now happy to report you can follow "The Hinckley Report" on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter.

Thank you for being with us.

We'll see you next week.

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