>> CATHY: WE HAVE ALL HEARD THE STORIES, AMERICANS ARE ON THE MOVE NOW THAT MANY JOBS CAN BE DONE FROM ANYWHERE.

CHEAPER HOUSING IS OFTEN A MOTIVATION.

FOLKS ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS ARE PACKING UP AND HEADING INLAND.

OTHERS ARE LEAVING BIG CITIES TO LIVE IN SMALL TOWNS AND ALONG LAKE SHORES.

HOW IS THAT PLAYING OUT IN MINNESOTA?

SOME NUMBERS WERE RELEASED THIS WEEK SHOWING THAT RAMSEY AND HENNEPIN COUNTY ARE LOSING POPULATION, AND SEVERAL COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE BENEFITING FROM THE METRO'S LOSS.

HERE TO TALK ABOUT SOME OF THESE FIGURES, ERIC GUTHRIE.

HE'S A SENIOR DEMOGRAPHER AT THE STATE DEMOGRAPHIC CENTER.

WELCOME TO "ALMANAC."

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>> Cathy: WELL, CONTINUING TO MOVE OUT OF THE TWIN CITIES.

DO WE KNOW WHAT'S HAPPENING?

>> WELL, WE KNOW THAT FOLKS ARE MOVING OUT OF HENNEPIN ND RAMSEY COUNTIES.

YOU KNOW, THE OTHER COUNTIES IN THE METRO AREA HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN POPULATION.

SO THERE'S SOME FOLKS THAT ARE MOVING JUST OUT OF THE CORE CITIES AND INTO THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES, AND LIKE YOU SAID, THERE ARE SOME FOLKS THAT ARE MOVING TO MORE AMENITY-RICH AREAS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, THERE IS A NEW NORMAL THAT WE'RE EXPERIENCING WHERE PEOPLE ARE NOT NECESSARILY AS TIED TO PLACE IN TERMS OF THEIR ABILITY TO WORK.

>> Eric: SO THIS IS BEYOND THE RATIO OF DEATHS TO BIRTHS?

>> THIS IS.

I MEAN, SO, YOU KNOW, IN RAMSEY AND HENNEPIN COUNTIES WE'RE STILL IN A SITUATION OF NATURAL INCREASE, SO WE HAVE MORE DEATHS THAN BIRTHS.

WE'RE GOING TO SEE THAT LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT DECADE OR SO AS THE BABY BOOM GENERATION BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF MORTALITY AND, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE BEEN HAVING DECLININGER FERTILITY -- FERTILITY RATES SINCE THE 1970s.

WHAT MINNESOTA HAS BEEN BENEFITTING FROM SEVERAL YEARS IS STRONG INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION THAT HAS OFFSET SOME OF OUR DOMESTIC LOSSES, WHICH HAS KEPT POPULATIONS INCREASING.

>> Cathy: TELL ME ABOUT WRIGHT COUNTY, WRIGHT COUNTY APPEARS TO BE BENEFITTING FROM THIS MIGRATION.

>> YOU KNOW, THERE ARE A OT OF OPPORTUNITIES ACROSS THE STATE.

AND WHEN YOU HAVE OPPORTUNITIES AND PEOPLE THAT WANT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE, PERHAPS WANT TO LIVE IN A PLACE THAT IS NOT AS DENSE, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE A LOT OF FOLKS THAT ENJOY THAT MORE PASTORAL LIFE, YOU KNOW, WRIGHT COUNTY MIGHT NOT BE PASTORAL IN ITS ENTIRETY, BUT IT IS CERTAINLY -- IT CERTAINLY OFFERS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LARGER LAND, CHEAPER HOUSING, THINGS LIKE THAT.

>> Eric: YOU'RE THE DATA GUY, BUT I WONDER HOW YOU THINK POLICY MAKERS WOULD USE THIS DATA.

WHAT KIND OF DECISIONS WOULD BE MADE BASED ON THIS DATA?

>> WELL, YOU KNOW, IF WE'RE LOOKING AT POPULATION LOSSES THAT HAS EFFECTS ON THE ABILITY TO COLLECT TAXES, THE ABILITY FOR JUST THE OVERALL TAX BASE.

IT HAS RELEVANCE IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS OF INCOME TAX AND PROPERTY TAX THAT ARE COLLECTED AND THAT THEN TURNS INTO THE ABILITY FOR AREAS TO PROVIDE SERVICES.

YOU KNOW, AND AS WE TART MOVING INTO A PERIOD WHERE WE'RE HAVING MORE AND MORE PERSONS CROSS THAT 65-YEAR MARK, YOU KNOW, AND FEWER CHILDREN BEING BORN BECAUSE OF DECLINING FERTILITY RATES, YOU KNOW, WE START TO RUN INTO SITUATIONS WHERE IS THERE TRADE-OFFS THAT HAVE TO OCCUR FOR ELDER CARE ERSUS EDUCATION, YOU KNOW, ESPECIALLY IN PLACES IN GREATER MINNESOTA.

YOU KNOW, THOSE ARE DECISIONS THAT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WRESTLE WITH.

HOW WOULD WE ALSO MAKE SURE THAT PEOPLE ARE ABLE TO AGE IN PLACE BECAUSE WE'RE NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO BE EQUIPPED TO HAVE NURSING SPACE OR SOMETHING -- YOU KNOW, ASSISTED LIVING SPACE FOR THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT WE'RE GOING TO BE HAVING ENTERING THAT PHASE OF LIFE.

>> Cathy: I'M WONDERING ABOUT THIS WORRISOME TREND, ARE WE ALSO SEEING PROBLEMS IN AREAS OF GREATER MINNESOTA, SAY, TO THE WEST, THOSE WESTERN COUNTIES, ARE THEY EXPERIENCING THE CONTINUED LOSSES AS WELL?

>> SOME PLACES ARE EXPERIENCING LOSSES IN POPULATION.

YOU KNOW, IN THE WEST, IN CENTRAL, SOME IN THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SEEN SOME LOSSES, BUT WE'VE ALSO SEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN PLACES AS WELL.

>> Eric: COULD WE TALK ABOUT THE CENSUS AND MINNESOTA'S ABILITY TO COUNT, WE DON'T HAVE MUCH AN UNDERCOUNT HERE AS OPPOSED TO ANOTHER STATES -- OTHER STATES OR AM I BEING TOO NICE ABOUT IT?

>> YOU'RE NOT.

MINNESOTA IS A STATE THAT TRADITIONALLY DOES VERY WELL IN TERMS OF HAVING OUR POPULATION COUNTED.

WE TYPICALLY COME IN NUMBER ONE IN TERMS OF OUR ABILITY FOR, YOU KNOW, FOR PEOPLE TO ANSWER THE CENSUS WITHOUT THE EXPENSIVE NONRESPONSE FOLLOW-UP TO HAVE TO OCCUR.

SO WE DID DO VERY WELL.

THERE ARE ALWAYS DIFFERENTIALS IN TERMS OF DIFFERENT POPULATIONS BEING COUNTED MORE ACCURATELY AND BETTER THAN OTHERS.

SO WE ALWAYS HAVE TO CONTINUE WITH THAT AND LOOK AT IT.

BUT MINNESOTA DOES VERY WELL.

>> Eric: ERIC