ONLY ANSWER.

YOU CAN'T LET IRAN HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON.

♪ ♪ WHILE WE'VE FOCUSED ON STATE ELECTIONS SO FAR TONIGHT, THE RESULTS HERE WERE PART OF A MASSIVE BLUE WAVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

FOR EXPERT ANALYSIS OF WHAT THIS COULD MEAN IN JANUARY, WE'RE JOINED BY A TRIO OF POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSORS.

LARRY JACOBS HEADS UP THE HUMPHREY SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA... THE U OF M IS ALSO WHERE MICHAEL MINTA CHAIRS THE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT... AND A COUPLE OF HOURS UP I-35 AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA DULUTH IS WHERE YOU'LL USUALLY FIND CINDY RUGELEY, WHO IS CURRENTLY ON RESEARCH SABBATICAL.

LARRY JACOBS, A ONE OFF OR A REALIGNMENT ELECTION?

>> WELL, IT CERTAINLY IS AN IMPORTANT ELECTION.

I THINK IT DEFIES MANY OF THE PATTERNS WE HAVE SEEN.

THE POLARIZATION IS SUPPOSED TO LOCK IN VOTERS, NOT THIS TIME.

WE'RE NOT SUPPOSED TO HAVE SO MANY RACES SHIFTING BECAUSE IT'S NOT COMPETITIVE.

YOU KNOW, YOU JUST GO DOWN THE LIST AND IT'S EXTRAORDINARY, AND THEN YOU'VE GOT DEMOCRATS WINNING IN STATES WHERE DONALD TRUMP WON BY 23 POINTS, OR YOU KNOW, MULTIPLE -- SO IS THIS A ONE OFF?

IS -- I THINK IT IS PART OF A NEW PATTERN.

TRUMP'S COALITION IS IN TATTERS AND REPUBLICANS HAVE TO MAKE A BIG DECISION ABOUT ARE THEY GOING TO BE COMPETING IN A NEW ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH VOTERS OF COLOR ARE INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT?

>> I DON'T THINK IT'S EITHER.

I THINK IT TAKES MORE THAN ONE ELECTION TO BE A REALIGNMENT.

I THINK IT'S DEFINITELY MORE THAN A ONE OFF.

I THINK PEOPLE ARE WANTING CHANGE.

I THINK PEOPLE ARE WANTING CONGRESS TO START DOING SOMETHING.

I THINK THIS TIME IF THE DEMOCRATS DON'T DO IT THERE WILL BE CHANGES NEXT TIME.

>> IF YOU LOOK AT THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS AFTER -- FOR THE PARTY IN POWER, THEY USUALLY LOSE SEATS.

BILL CLINTON LOST OVER 50 SOME ODD SEATS IN THE HOUSE TO DEMOCRATS.

BARACK OBAMA IN 2010 OVER 60 PLUS SEATS IN THE MIDTERM ELECTION.

SO, I DIDN'T NECESSARILY SEE A REALIGNMENT.

BUT AGAIN LIKE CINDY SAID, I THINK IT TAKES MORE THAN ONE ELECTION.

I THINK DEMOCRATS UNDERSTAND THEY SEE THE DATA LIKE WE SEE THE DATA AND THEY UNDERSTAND THEY NEED TO TRY TO DO SOMETHING TO LIMIT THOSE EFFECTS.

>> SPEAKING OF DATA, WHAT ABOUT POLLS.

I WAS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA OSTING EVENT.

THE NUMBER ONE QUESTION WE GOT FROM THE AUDIENCE OVER AND OVER AND OVER.

ARE POLLS TRUST WORTHY?

ARE THEY RIGHT OR WRONG?

WHAT SAY YOU?

>> I THINK THEY DO A GOOD JOB BUT IT IS A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT.

IF YOU LOOK AT THE "NEW YORK TIMES" LAST POLL, THEY WERE SPOT ON IN LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL RACES.

>> WITH SIX PARAGRAPHS OF CAVEATS IN MINNESOTA SENATE RACE, THEY WEREN'T SURE THEY WERE RIGHT.

>> YOU HAVE TO BE, IT'S A PROBABILITY, A STATISTICAL ESTIMATE, AND IT VARIES AROUND THE ESTIMATE.

BUT I THINK POLLS IS VALUABLE.

IT'S NOT A PREDICTION.

YOU HAVE TO ACCEPT THE FACT THAT IT WILL VARY.

>> POLLS, BETTER, WERE THEY CLOSER?

>> I THINK THE POLLS THIS TIME DID A DECENT JOB.

I THINK IT'S REALLY HARD FOR POLLS TO REALLY WEIGH TURNOUT, RIGHT?

MANY POLLSTERS ARE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD NOT CAPTURE THAT TRUMP VOTER, I THINK HEY OVERCORRECTED A LITTLE BIT FOR REPUBLICANS IN TERMS OF THE COMPOSITION OF WHO'S GOING TO TURN OUT AND VOTE.

BUT THIS TIME IT WAS A BIG WAVE AND DEMOCRATS ARE ENTHUSED AND ENERGETIC.

IT IS HARD TO CAPTURE THAT ENTHUSIASM.

>> THE FUTURE OF MAGA?

>> FIRST OF ALL TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION ON THE POLLS REAL QUICK, THE PROBLEM WITH POLLS RIGHT NOW IS I THINK THEY'RE OVER EMPHASIZED IN CAMPAIGNS.

IT'S AN ISSUE WITH RESPONSE RATES.

YOU ASSUME THOSE THAT ANSWER THE POLL ARE THE SAME WHO DON'T.

THAT'S WHERE THE QUESTIONS COME IN.

THEY DID A GOOD JOB WITH IT THIS TIME.

THE "NEW YORK TIMES," ALL OF THOSE CAVEATS, IT WAS SUCH AN OUTLIER AND IT TURNED OUT TO BE RIGHT.

MAGA I HINK IS IMPLODING.

>> SO WHAT END?

>> A LOT OF IT WAS A CREATION OF INFLUENCES AND THINGS LIKE THAT ON THE INTERNET, BUT I THINK THEY'RE GOING AFTER EACH OTHER.

I THINK THAT AS FAR AS -- I THINK THEY'VE BLOWN UP.

>> WHAT REPLACES IT, IF ANYTHING?

>> IF WE LOOK AT THESE CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENTS, RIGHT?

THE TEA PARTY, REMEMBER THAT AFTER THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION.

REMEMBER THAT AND WE SAW IT THE BIRTHER, AND THEN THE NAME MAGA.

I THINK IT WILL REINVENT ITSELF AND BE IN OPPOSITION.

AS LONG AS THERE IS ANOTHER PARTY, THE ADVERSARIAL SYSTEM WILL REINVENT, IT WILL COME BACK, IT MAY NOT BE IN THE FORM, TRUMP WILL NOT BE THE FACE OF IT, AT LEAST WE DON'T THINK, BUT THERE WILL BE SOMEONE ELSE BUT SOMEONE LIKE RON DESANTIS.

>> THE PRESIDENT IS GOING DOWN SWINGING.

>> DONALD TRUMP HAS DEMONSTRATED IT'S POLITICS ARE ABOUT DONALD TRUMP AND NOT ABOUT THE PARTY.

THE PEOPLE THAT CAME BACK THAT WERE TRUMP PEOPLE LOST.

BUT I THINK PUTTING STEVE MILLER, THIS IS NOT AN ACCOMMODATION TO THE NEW POLITICAL REALITY.

THIS IS DONALD TRUMP SAYING I'M NOT BACKING DOWN.

WE'RE GOING TO DO FULL SCALE IMMIGRATION ROUNDUPS AND CONTINUE WITH HIS POLICIES AND THAT'S NOT WHAT VOTERS SAY, HE'S OUT OF STEP.

>> CONTINUE WITH PETE HEGSETH, WILL TRUMP GET RID OF HIM OR CONGRESS?

>> I THINK CONGRESSES WILL IMPEACH HIM.

THE THING ABOUT MAGA THAT I FIND INTERESTING IS IT'S ALMOST LIKE IT WAS A GREAT EXPERIMENT AND EVERYONE THOUGHT IT WAS SOMETHING DIFFERENT, AND NOW THEY'RE GOING WELL, IT DIDN'T WORK.

SO, THIS EXPERIMENT DIDN'T WORK.

I REMEMBER THE FIRST TIME I HEARD CHARLIE KIRK TALK ABOUT JOBS.

HE TALKED ABOUT -- IT SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE GIVEN THAT WHOLE MESSAGE THAT HE HAD BACK IN 2012.

>> YEAH, I HATE TO MAKE PREDICTIONS, BUT I MIGHT AS WELL DO IT.

I THINK THERE'S A LOT OF UNREST AMONG REPUBLICANS ABOUT HEGSETH AND HIS TENURE AT THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR.

STILL CALLED THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, AND SO I THINK THERE WILL BE A VOTE, WILL THEY HAVE ENOUGH TO IMPEACH HIM, POSSIBLY, BUT IF THE REPUBLICANS DONE THE DEMOCRATS WILL.

>> IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FORGET ABOUT THE PARTY.

THEY'RE IN AN EXPECTATIONS TRAP.

THE ENORMOUS WIN RAISED THE EXPECTATIONS OF DRAMATIC CHANGE.

DONALD TRUMP HAS A VETO, THERE'S HUGE DIVISIONS IN THE PARTY, REMEMBER JOE MANCHIN, IT'S BACK.

WE AVE DEMOCRATS FROM KANSAS AND OTHER PLACES THAT ARE REPUBLICAN