>> Ted: NEXT ON ARIZONA HORIZON, A JUNIOR SUPREME COURT DECISION INVOLVING AMERICAN INDIAN TRIBAL SOVEREIGNTY.

ALSO TONIGHT MORE ABOUT A NEW DRUG SHOWING PROGRESS IN SHOWING THE ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE.

TODAY MARKING MARKS THE START OF ARIZONA'S MONSOON.

THOSE STORIES AND MORE NEXT ON ARIZONA HORIZON.

GOOD EVENING AND WELCOME TO ARIZONA HORIZON.

THERE'S AN ADOPTION LAW TO KEEP AMERICAN BE INDIAN CHILDREN FROM BEING REMOVED THEIR TRIBES.

IT WAS 7-2 THAT THE INDIAN CHILD WELFARE ACT TO GIVE REFERENCE TO TRIBES THAT WAS UNCONSTITUTIONAL.

THE COURT ALSO REJECTED A RULING THAT THE LAW WAS RACE-BASED AND PLACED IN UNDUE BURDEN ON STATES TO PROTECT CHILDREN.

WE WILL HAVE MUCH MORE ON TODAY'S RULING IN JUST A MOMENT.

>>> SRP HAS REACHED AN AGREEMENT WITH THE TOWN OF RANDOLPH NEAR COOL LIVEIDDGE.

THEY WOULD EXCHANGE THIS FOR IMPROVEMENTS INCLUDING SCHOLARSHIPS FOR IMPROVEMENTS AND THEY AGREED TO REDUCE THEM AND MOVE THEM FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COMMUNITY.

THE DEAL IS SUBJECT TO APPROVAL FROM THE ARIZONA CORPORATION COMMISSION.

>>> THE F.D.A.

ADVISERS VOTED TO UPDATE COVID BOOSTERS FOR THE FALL AND THE THE RECOMMENDATION IS THAT BOOSTERS MOVE AWAY FROM BIVALENT VACCINES AND GO TO THE MAJORITY.

PFIZER ESTIMATING THAT IT COULD START RELEASING DOSES AS EARLY AS THE END OF NEXT MONTH.

>>> THE U.S. SUPREME COURT UPHELD THE INDIAN CHILD WELFARE ACT AND THAT LAW WAS ESTABLISHED TO KEEP NATIVE AMERICAN CHILDREN FROM BEING REMOVED FROM THEIR TRIBES AND TRADITIONS AND IT WAS A MAJOR DECISION REGARDING TRIBAL SOVEREIGNTY.

WE HAVE DERRICK BEETSO FROM THE COLLEGE OF LAW.

DERRICK, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

WHAT DID THE SUPREME COURT DO TODAY?

>> I APPRECIATE YOU HAVING US ON.

THIS HAS BEEN A HUGE CASE AND THIS PRACTICES FEDERAL INDIAN LAW AND CHILD WELFARE LAW.

THIS BOILS DOWN TO, THERE WAS A HUGE DEBATE BEFORE THE SUPREME COURT ABOUT WHAT THE CONSTITUTION SAYS ABOUT CONGRESS' AUTHORITY TO LEGISLATE WITH INDIAN AFFAIRS AND THE QUESTION WAS WHETHER OR NOT CONGRESS COULD PASS A LAW LIKE THE CHILD WELFARE ACT AND THE COURT HELD IN A 7-2 DECISION THEY COULD, IN FACT, COULD.

>> Ted: THE INDIAN CHILD WELFARE ACT, WHAT DOES THIS CALL FOR?

>> IT WAS PASSED IN 1978 AND THIS WAS TO CREATE GUIDELINES AT THE STATE LEVEL ON HOW TRIBES AND INDIAN FAMILIES CAN HAVE A SAY IN THE ADOPTION PROCEEDINGS AT THE STATE COURT LEVEL.

>> Ted: AND THIS CASE INVOLVED, WHAT, A WHITE FAMILY FROM TEXAS AND A CHILD AND THEY WERE SAYING THAT THE ACT IS, WHAT, RACE-BASED AND UNCONSTITUTIONAL?

THESE SORTS OF THINGS?

>> SEVERAL FAMILIES INVOLVED AND SEVERAL DIFFERENT CHILDREN INVOLVED, INCLUDING MY TRIBE, THE NAVAJO NATION, AND THE WHITE EARTH NATION AND ALL FACT SCENARIOS AND AT THE END OF THE DAY, WHAT THEY WERE ASSERTING THE LAW HAS PASSED TO PROTECT NATIVE CHILDREN AND KEEP THEM CLOSE TO NATIVE CULTURE AND IT WAS UNCONSTITUTIONAL AND GAVE PREFERENCE ON RACE.

>> Ted: VIOLATED EQUAL REFERENCE PRINCIPLES?

>> THAT WAS THE ASSERTION, YES.

>> Ted: I'VE READ THAT IT WOULD DISCRIMINATE AGAINST AMERICAN INDIAN CHILDREN IN THAT IT LIMITED THEIR OPTIONS.

TALK TO US ABOUT THAT AND HOW FAR THAT WENT WITH THE HIGH COURT.

>> THE HIGH COURT DIDN'T GET TO THE EQUAL PROTECTION CLAIMS.

WHAT THEY FOUND, IRONICALLY, ANY RULING FROM THE COURT WOULD NOT BE BINDING ON STATE COURTS WHICH IMPLEMENT INDIAN CHILD WELFARE ACT AND UNDER THE LAW, THERE'S A CONCEPT CALLED REDRESSABILITY WHICH IS IMPORTANT.

IF SOMEONE BRINGS A CASE, NOT ONLY A RULING BY THE COURT WOULD REMEDY THAT INJURY.

SO WITH RESPECT TO THE EQUAL PROTECTION CLAIMS YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE, THEY SAID THAT THE STATE OF TEXAS COULDN'T ASSERT EQUAL PROTECTION CLAIMS ON BEHALF OF THEIR OWN CITIZENS.

WITH RESPECT TO THE PARENTS INVOLVED HERE, THEY SAID THAT ANY HOLDING FROM A FEDERAL COURT WOULD NOT BE BINDING ON THE CHILD WELFARE ACT SO THERE WOULD BE NO REDRESSABILITY.

SO THEY DISMISSED THAT ON THE GROUNDS THAT THEY WILL STAND TO BRING THE CLAIMS BEFORE THE SUPREME COURT.

>> Ted: SO A 7-2 DECISION AND THOMAS AND ALITA WERE THE ONLY DISSENTERS.

LACK OF STANDING IN SOME ASPECTS AND JUST BASICALLY, I'M SORRY, YOU'RE WRONG, IT'S CONSTITUTIONAL IN OTHERS AND WHAT DID YOU HEAR IF THE OPINION HERE?

>> SO, BASICALLY, A LOT OF FOLKS HAVE LOOKED AT STATUTES LIKE THE INDIAN CHILD WELFARE AND OTHER STATUTES THAT PROVIDE CERTAIN GUIDELINES AND RIGHTS FOR AMERICAN INDIAN INDIVIDUALS IN THE UNITED STATES AND THEY THINK ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THE CONGRESS HAS AUTHORITY UNDER THE CONSTITUTION.

A LOT OF THE PROVISIONS THAT NATIVE TRIBES CITE TO HAVE THE INDIAN COMMERCE CLAUSE AND THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE INDIAN COMMERCE CLAUSE IS BROAD ENOUGH OR DEALING WITH COMMERCE.

THE COURT SAID THE POWERS THAT HAVE BEEN EXERCISED HAVE TOUCHED A NUMBER OF ISSUES OUTSIDE OF COMMERCE.

>> Ted: AND SOME OF IT WAS ABOUT RACE AND THE TRIBES SAY IT'S NOT BUT TRIBAL SOVEREIGNTY.

WE'RE A POLITICAL GROUP AND NOT A RACIAL GROUP.

IS THAT WHAT YOU HEARD, AS WELL?

>> YEAH, AND REALLY TO UNDERSTAND THIS, YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTAND TRIBES OF POLITICAL BODIES PREEXIST THE CONSTITUTION AND PREEXIST THE UNITED STATES AND A LOT OF TIMES THINKING ABOUT THE TERM "INDIAN RESERVATION," THE TRIBES PRESERVED EVERYTHING NOT EXCEEDED IN THE TREATY.

THEY WERE IN THE UNITED STATES AND TO THE STATES THEY SETTLED TO WHAT IT CAME TO BE WHAT WAS RESERVED IS THAT INHERENT TRIBAL AUTHORITY THAT CONTINUES TO EXIST AND THAT EXISTED BEFORE THE CONSTITUTION.

>> Ted: HOW MUCH DOES THAT EXIST AND WILL WE WILL SEE MORE IN THE FUTURE?

>> THIS IS A HUGE DECISION BECAUSE THIS SAYS THAT CONGRESS RIGHTFULLY PASSED A LAW THAT ENSURES THAT THE FUTURE OF INDIAN TRIBES, THE CHILDREN WILL REMAIN CLOSELY CONNECTED TO THE COMMUNITIES BASED UPON THIS LAW TO BE ABLE TO PROMOTE SOVEREIGNTY INTO THE FUTURE.

TO PASS IT ONTO THE FUTURE GENERATIONS THAT'S BEEN UPHELD BY THE SUPREME COURT.

>> Ted: THOMAS WROTE SOME MAY NOT HAVE SET FOOT ON INDIAN LANDS AND I GUESS IN ONE OF THE CASES, A CHILD WAS ADOPTED AS, YOU KNOW, AN INFANT HAS NEVER KNOWN ANYTHING THAN THE WHITE FAMILY.

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE ARGUMENTS?

>> BY AND LARGE, I THINK EACH OF THE CHILD WELFARE CASES WE LOOK AT CAN'T BE LOOKED AT AS THE TELL-ALL, BE-ALL SCENARIO.

A TON OF FACTS THEY FACE IN THE UNITED STATES AND IN ORDER TO KIND OF CHERRY PICK DIFFERENT FACTS TO SHOW A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE OR POINT OF VIEW IS THE WRONG APPROACH.

WHAT WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND IS THAT BECAUSE OF OUR COUNTRY'S HISTORY, BECAUSE OF THE PROMISES THAT WERE MADE TO TRIBES AND BECAUSE OF ALL OF THE DIFFERENT UNIQUE POLICY ISSUES THAT HAPPENED OVER TIME, THAT MANY DIFFERENT NATIVE CHILDREN ARE IN MANY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS IN THE UNITED STATES, THE LAW AS A WHOLE TAKES THAT INTO CONSIDERATION AND PASSES THAT SOMETHING AS SENSING.

>> Ted: TALK ABOUT THE CHILDREN BEING ADOPTED OUT OF TRIBES.

>> IF YOU LOOK AT THE CONCURRENCE, A DEEP HISTORY OF HOW THIS STARTED EVEN BEFORE THE CHILD WELFARE ISSUES IN THE '70s THAT LEAD TO IQUA AND GOES BACK TO THE FOUNDS AND THE UNITED STATES' EFFORTS TO ASSIMILATE CHILDREN THROUGH THE BOARDING SYSTEM AND OTHERWISE TO GET NATIVE CULTURE AND NATIVE TRADITIONS AND ASSIMILATE THEM INTO AMERICAN CULTURE AND CARRIES ON INTO THE ADOPTION AND THE NEED FOR INDIAN CHILD WELFARE ACT.

>> Ted: AND ALSO GAVE RISE TO RECOGNITION THAT THIS WAS GOING ON.

IT SEEMS AS THOUGH ATTENTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE YEARS.

>> YOU'VE SEEN A LOT OF CONCERTED EFFORTS AND A LOT WITH THIS OPINION IS HOW TECHNICAL JUSTICE BARRETT WAS IN EXPLAINING THE CHILD WELFARE ACT AND HOW IT TAKES PLACE ON THE GROUND AND I THINK A LOT OF THAT HAS TO DO WITH THE INCREDIBLE BRIEFING THAT ALL OF THE OF THE INTERVENING TRIBES PUT FORWARD AND ALL OF THE MEKEY PUT FORWARD TO EXPLAIN THE LAW AND THE HISTORY AND THE SCOPE OF IT.

I SEE THE OPINION AS KIND OF A REFLECTION THAT THOSE BRIEFINGS REALLY DID A GREAT JOB IN HELPING TO EDUCATE THE JUSTICES BEFORE MAKING THE DECISION.

>> Ted: DID A GREAT JOB AND LAST QUESTION HERE, HOW BIG OF A DECISION IS THIS.

IS THIS SOMETHING THAT CAN BE REFERRED TO REPEATEDLY IN OTHER ASPECTS OF INDIAN TRIBAL SOVEREIGNTY?

>> WHAT IT GENERALLY DOES, IT BASICALLY REAFFIRMS THAT CONGRESS' AUTHORITY TO LEGISLATE WITH INDIAN AFFAIRS IS AS BROAD AS THEY THOUGHT IT WAS.

SO MOVING FORWARD, YOU'LL SEE LESS OF THESE BROAD-BASED ATTACKS THAT CONGRESS' AUTHORITY TO LEGISLATE.

I THINK IT'S A HUGE DECISION.

I THINK THEY'LL PROBABLY MAYBE STILL CHALLENGE AS AFOOT WITH THE INDIAN CHILD WELFARE THAT WE HAVE YET TO SEE AND FOR NOW, I THINK WE CAN SAY SAFELY, THE INDIAN CHILD WELFARE IS CONSTITUTIONAL AS RULED UPON BY THE HIGHEST COURT IN THE LAND.

>> Ted: DERRICK BEETSO, GOOD CONVERSATION AND FOUR JOINING FOR JOINING US.

>>> UP NEXT, A NEW DRUG TO SHOW DOWN ALZHEIMER'S.

>> Ted: ENCOURAGING NEWS REGARDING ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE.

A NEW DRUG SHOWING PROMISE IN SHOWING COGNITIVE DECLINE IN THOSE WITH EARLY ALZHEIMER'S.

JOINING US NOW IS DR. MEREDITH WICKLUND FROM THE MAYO CLINIC.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

THIS IS INTERESTING.

THIS IS A BIG DEAL, HUH?

>> THIS IS A BIG DEAL AND REVOLUTIONARY.

>> Ted: WHAT IS DENOBAB.

>> THIS IS WE'RE USING THE IMMUNE SYSTEM TO ATTACK ONE OF THE SIGNATURE BAD PROTEINS CALLED AMOLOID.

>> Ted: HOW DOES IT KNOW TO ATTACK THAT AND NOTHING ELSE?

>> ANTIBODIES THEY'RE ONLY MADE TO BIND TO THAT AND REMOVE IT FROM THE BRAIN AND CAN'T ATTACK ANY OTHER PROTEIN.

>> Ted: IT SLOWS COGNITIVE IN EARLY ALZHEIMER'S PATIENTS AND WHAT ARE WE TALKING ABOUT?

>> THIS WAS STUDIED IN INDIVIDUALS AS MILD COGNITIVE IMPAIRMENT WHICH MEANS THEY HAVE OBJECTIVE BEYOND NORMAL FOR AGING MEMORY CHANGES, BUT MILD ENOUGH THAT THEY DON'T NOTICE DAY-TO-DAY AND THEY'RE FULLY CAPABLE OF DOING THAT THEMSELVES.

ALSO, THIS MEDICINE WAS STUDIED IN INDIVIDUALS WITH MILD DEMENTIA AND DO MOST THINGS THEMSELVES AND NEED A LITTLE BIT OF ASSISTANCE.

>> Ted: THE DRUG SLOWS DOWN THE DECLINE WHICH MEANS IF YOU GO FROM HERE TO HERE WITHOUT THE DRUG, COGNITIVE DECLINE GOES DOWN AND STAYED THE SAME OR DIDN'T GO DOWN AS MUCH?

>> DIDN'T GO DOWN AS MUCH.

OVER TIME IN THE 18 MONTHS IN THAT THE STUDY WAS ONGOING, INDIVIDUALS, UNFORTUNATELY, WERE PROGRESSING AND COGNITION WASPROGRESSING AND MILD SYMPTOMS WERE FUNCTIONALLY PROGRESSING.

>> Ted: IT ALLOWS MORE TIME.

>> EXACTLY.

>> Ted: 39% HAD A LOWER CHANCE OF PROGRESSING TO THE NEXT STAGE.

>> RIGHT.

>> Ted: I DON'T KNOW ABOUT YOU, BUT THAT SOUNDS GOOD TO ME.

>> VERY ENCOURAGING.

>> Ted: SO IT'S A MONO-COLONAL ANTIBIOTICANTIBODY.

IS IT A PILL OR HOW MUCH?

>> ONCE A MONTH.

>> Ted: TAKES LIKE AN AFTERNOON?

>> YES, MONTHLY.

>> Ted: A WEIRD QUESTION, BUT HOW DO YOU KNOW WHEN IT'S ADMINISTERED?

ARE THERE TESTS OR WAYS TO KNOW THAT THIS NEEDS TO HAPPEN NOW?

>> SO IF ANYONE FEELS LIKE THEY'RE EXPERIENCING COGNITIVE DECLINE, I WOULD RECOMMEND THEY SEE A NEUROLOGIST TO ADMINISTER COGNITIVE TESTS TO SEE IF THERE IS DECLINE BEYOND WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT FOR AGE AND IF THERE IS, YET THEY'RE DOING REASONABLY WELL, WE WOULD DO ADDITIONAL TESTING TO MAKE SURE IT'S NOT SOMETHING OTHER THAN ALZHEIMER'S, LIKE AN MR SCAN RI OF THE BRAIN.

IF THEY'RE INTERESTED IN IN PURSUING TREATMENT, THAT IT'S ALZHEIMER'S THAT IS CAUSING THE SYMPTOMS.

WE CAN DO AN AMALOID CAT SCAN.

>> Ted: ONCE THEY'RE ON, HOW LONG DO THEY STAY ON?

>> PATIENTS WERE ON TREATMENT FOR ROUGHLY 12 TO 18 MONTHS AND THEY WOULD HAVE REPEAT TESTING OF THE PROTEIN IN THEIR BRAIN AND ONCE THEY WERE COMPLETELY CLEAR FROM THE BRAIN, THE TREATMENTS DISCONTINUED.

>> Ted: WHAT ABOUT SIDE EFFECTS?

>> SIDE EFFECTS ARE A BIG DEAL AND SOMETHING FOR THE WORRISOME SIDE EFFECT AND WHAT ESSENTIALLY HAPPENS, BRAIN SWELLING OR BRAIN BLEEDING THAT HAPPENS.

NOW WE CALL IT THIS BECAUSE IT'S LARGELY AN IMAGING FINDING IN INDIVIDUALS ON THIS WERE FREQUENTLY MONITORED FOR THIS SIDE EFFECT.

SO IT'S LARGELY BUT NOT ALWAYS AND CAN CAUSE SYMPTOMS.

>> Ted: BUT NOT NECESSARILY CAUSE.

CAUSE SYMPTOMS?

>> THAT'S CORRECT.

>> Ted: HOW DOES THIS CHANGE THE GAME?

>> THIS IS THE FIRST TIME AND THERE HAVE.

A FEW OTHER MEDICINES WHERE WE'VE HAD MEDICINES DIRECTLY TARGET THE DISEASE.

THE MEDICINES FOR ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE HELPED IT ENHANCE CHEMICALS IN THE BRAIN IMPORTANT IN THE MEMORY CIRCUITS AND DON'T TARGET THE PATH PATHOLOGICAL CHANGES AND THIS IS A BIG DEAL.

>> Ted: AS SUCH, COULD THEY BE A PREVENTATIVE MEDICATION?

>> THIS IS ONGOING, YES.

>> Ted: IS THIS AVAILABLE NOW AND IF NOT, WHEN WILL IT BE AVAILABLE?

>> IN MEDICINE IS NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE YET.

THE PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANY THAT MANUFACTURES THE MEDICINE ANNOUNCED THE TRIAL RESULTS AND HAVE TO PRESENT THOSE TRIAL RESULTS TO THE F.D.A., WHICH WE AND THE TO HAVE BY THE END OF THE YEAR AND IT'S EXPECTED IT WILL BE APPROVE BID APPROVED.

>> Ted: STUDIES AND THE TRIALS CONTINUE WHICH MEAN PEOPLE CAN GET INVOLVED.

>> YES.

>> AGAIN, THIS IS UNUSUALLY ENCOURAGING WHEN IT COMES TO ALZHEIMER'S.

IS THAT HOW YOU FEEL?

>> I DO FEEL THAT WAY.

I'VE BEEN IN THIS FIELD FOR A LONG TIME DOING A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT CLINICAL TRIALS AND GOT VERY FRUSTRATED.

WASN'T FOR A LACK OF TRYING AND NEGATIVE AFTER NEGATIVE STUDIES AND FINALLY WE'RE MAKING HEADWAY AND TARGETING THE DISEASE ITSELF AND AN EXCITING TIME IN THE FIELD.

>> Ted: THANK YOU FOR SHARING YOUR INFORMATION, DR. MEREDITH WICKLUND.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>> Ted: IT MAY NOT LOOK LIKE IT OR FEEL LIKE IT, BUT TODAY IS THE OFFICIAL START OF ARIZONA'S MONSOON.

FOR A PREVIEW OF THE SUMMER RAINY SEASON, WE WELCOME OUR CLIMATOLOGIST, RANDY CERVENY.

IT'S ALWAYS THIS TIME AND WHO DECIDED THAT JUNE 15th WAS THE START OF THE MONSOON?

IT'S NEVER THIS EARLY.

[ Laughter ] >> WHAT WE DO IS WE SET A START DATE SO THAT IT'S KIND OF LIKE THE WAY HURRICANE SEASON STARTS.

WE HAVE A HURRICANE SEASON THAT STARTS ON JUNE 1st, BUT WE DON'T HAVE HURRICANES THAT ARE USUALLY OCCURRING BY THAT TIME.

THIS IS A CHANCE FOR EVERYBODY TO GET AWARE THAT, YES, WE'LL HAVE THOSE THUNDERSTORMS COMING IN AND YOU NEED TO MAKE SURE YOU'RE PREPARED AND HAVE ALL OF THE RIGHT KNOWLEDGE ABOUT WHAT WILL BE HAPPENING.

SO IT'S A HEADS UP.

THE REALLY TRUE START TO THE MONSOON ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY SOR.

>> Ted: WHEN TEMPERATURES GET UP THERE AND WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS IN THE PAST, THOSE TEMPERATURES NEED TO GET TO THE CRAZY NUMBERS IN ORDER TO DRAW THE MOISTURE UP, CORRECT?

>> RIGHT.

AND THAT'S NOT WHAT HAPPENED.

WE'VE HAD A MILD MAY AND JUNE SO FAR.

RITERIGHT NOW, WE'VE BELOW A HUNDRED DEGREES AND REMEMBER, WE'VE HIT 122° BEFORE.

UNFORTUNATELY, THAT WILL CHANGE ACCORDING TO WHAT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAYS.

THEY ARE PREDICTING THAT OUR MONSOON WILL BE HOTTER THAN NORMAL.

>> Ted: WE HAVE A MAP AND THE I THINK IT SAYS WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE.

IF WE CAN SHOW THAT AND LOOK AT THAT.

HOLY SMOKES!

>> THAT WORD ABOVE MEANS ABOVE NORMAL AND WHAT IT'S NOT SAYING IS HOW HOT IT WILL BE THAT THERE'S A BETTER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT WE'LL HAVE HOT TEMPERATURES HERE IN ARIZONA.

THAT WILL BE FOR THE MEMORIAL PERIOD OF THE MONSOON, JULY, AUGUST AND THE SEPTEMBER.

>> Ted: THIS IS THE MONSOON RAIN FORECAST AND DOES THAT MEAN IF WE'LL HAVE MORE RAIN THAN USUAL?

IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT FROM THAT.

>> DURING THE MONSOON, WE'LL USUALLY SEE A DECREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES BECAUSE WE START HAVING CLOUDS.

IF WE DON'T HAVE CLOUDS, WE'LL HAVE A LOT OF SUN.

SO THE WAY THIS IS WORKING IS THAT OUR TWO UNFORTUNATE WORDS THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE WITH ARIZONA, "HOT AND DRY" ARE WHAT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FORECASTING FOR THE COMING MONTHS.

>> Ted: TO THAT END, THIS IS A SATELLITE IMAGE OF MEXICO AND YOU NEED TO HAVE THESE CLOUDS IN MEXICO, RIGHT, RANDY?

I'M NOT SEEING A LOT OF CLOUDS DOWN THERE?

[ Laughter ] >> EXACTLY.

WE WANT TO SEE THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO STARTS TO BUBBLE UP WITH WHITE.

WE WANT TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS BUBBLING UP AT NOONTIME IN MEXICO AND DAY-TO-DAY, WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS MOVE UP TOWARDS ARIZONA.

THE SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT COMES FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

YOU CAN SEE RIGHT NOW AND WE'RE JUST A FEW WEEKS AWAY FROM THE START OF OUR MONSOON THAT WE'RE NOT SEEING ANYTHING.

I'M ANTICIPATING IT WILL BE A LATE START TO THE THUNDERSTORMS.

>> Ted: WITH THAT IN MIND, HISTORICALLY, WHEN THERE'S A LATE START TO THE MONSOON, DOES THAT MEAN A LATE END TO THE MONSOON AND CONVERSELY, EARLY START, DOES THAT YOU MEAN IT ENDS EARLY?

[ Laughter ] >> UNFORTUNATELY NOT.

I HAVE BETTER HOPES FOR THE END THAN FOR THE START BECAUSE AS WE ARE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MONSOON AND GETTING INTO FALL, WE'LL BE SWITCHING ALSO TO EL NINO AND THAT MEANS THAT WE START TO HAVE MORE AND MORE STORMS, PARTICULARLY HURRICANES THAT ARE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TO START FORMING.

THOSE HURRICANES, SOME THE MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO ARIZONA.

SO I'M ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC TOWARD LATE AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER ABOUT HAVING MORE RAIN COMING INTO ARIZONA.

>> Ted: SO THE EL NINO LA NINA, THAT CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

>> IT CAN.

AS WE GO ONTO FALL AND THE WINTER, THE NATIONAL SERVICES IS INDICATING WE SHOULD HAVE A WET WINTER.

>> Ted: WHAT HAPPENED LAST WINTER?

IT LOOKED LIKE THE SNOW PACT, LOOKED LIKE UN-GOTHIC PRO PORTIONS?

>> WE WERE IN LA NINA CONDITIONS WHICH GIVES US A DRY SITUATION, BUT MOTHER NATURE DECIDED TO THROW OUT THE PLAYBOOK AND LAST YEAR, WE ENDED UP GETTING A LOT OF MOISTURE AND SHOULDN'T HAVE.

THIS YEAR, ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A GOOD WINTER.

WHETHER OR NOT WE DO IS IF MOTHER NATURES PLAYS ALONG.

>> Ted: LOOKING BACK AT THE DATA, IS IT GETTING EASIER TO A, FORECAST OR UNDERSTAND THE MONSOON OR FORECAST OR UNDERSTAND THIS WHOLE THING OR IS IT JUST A CRAP SHOOT, RANDY?

[ Laughter ] >> WELL, WE ARE GETTING BETTER.

IT MAY NOT SEEM AT TIMES LIKE IT.

BUT REMEMBER, JUST A FEW HUNDRED YEARS AGO, IF YOU WERE A FORECASTER, YOU WOULD HAVE BEEN BURNED AT THE STAKE.

WE'RE GETTING BETTER THAN.

THAT.

EACH NEW YEAR AND EACH NEW SITUATION GIVES US MORE SITUATION THAT WE CAN HOPEFULLY USE TO MAKE IN THE FUTURE.

>> Ted: WE'LL ALWAYS GO TO YOU, RANDY.

>> THANK YOU.

>> Ted: THAT'S IT FOR NOW.

I'M TED SIMONS AND THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

YOU HAVE A GREAT EVENING!