♪♪♪ male announcer: Funding for "The Hinckley Report" is made possible in part by the Cleone Peterson Eccles Endowment Fund.

Jason Perry: Tonight on "The Hinckley Report," Utah's Republicans elect a slate of young leaders to shepherd the party forward during a tumultuous convention, First Lady Jill Biden visits our state to recognize teachers and promote the country's vaccine efforts, and as a state reaches legislative benchmarks in curbing the pandemic, many statewide restrictions are lifted.

♪♪♪ CC BY ABERDEEN CAPTIONING 1-800-688-6621 WWW.ABERCAP.COM Jason Perry: Good evening and welcome to "The Hinckley Report."

I'm Jason Perry, Director of the Hinckley Institute of politics.

Covering the week, we have Natalie Gochnour, Director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah.

Ben Winslow, reporter with Fox 13 News, and Lindsay Whitehurst, reporter with the Associated Press.

Thank you so much for being with us tonight, a lot of things happening in the world and the country and Utah.

I want to get to a convention.

Ben, we're gonna start with you.

Ben Winslow: That was a convention.

Jason Perry: It was, you were there.

So the Republicans met this past weekend on Saturday.

We read some of the reporting, some of yours, tell us about-- well, tell us about the event itself, because this was not like a lot of others we have seen, a lot of emotion, you know, a lot of drama even maybe.

Ben Winslow: A lot of stuff happening at this convention.

It was the first in-person political convention in more than a year because of the pandemic.

Of course, mask wearing was, well, kind of mixed, and of course, there was the main event with Senator Mitt Romney getting booed by the delegates to his own party.

Jason Perry: Boy, I want to get into some of that, so Mitt Romney booed, Governor being booed.

We're gonna talk about that for just a just a second, 'cause Lindsay, as you've done some reporting and your colleagues on this as well, what's interesting is new leadership was elected here, and we have a brand-new chair, the outgoing chaired Derek Brown was not going to go forward in that particular job.

They elected Carson Jorgensen, talk about him for a second, some of what we know about him and a little--maybe a little view about how he's going to manage this new job.

Lindsay Whitehurst: Well, he was a bit of a surprise.

This was considered kind of an upset when he was not necessarily the favorite, but he's young, 31 years old I think, and so it's all millennial leadership of the Utah GOP, which is another interesting aspect of it, and there are some things about his leadership that sort of remain to be seen.

One thing that he said is he is not a big fan of SP54.

This was the law that a lot of people--to gather signatures, to get on the ballot instead of only going the convention route, so we may see some renewed efforts on that.

What it seems like they've--and that the party has kind of come to the end of the legal road already, but perhaps in the legislature, so we'll see.

It seems like that theme is going to keep going, and he's gonna make sure that it won't be something that gets forgotten about.

Jason Perry: Right, so Natalie, you've been involved in many conventions over the years.

You've been to them, and you've been through many of these leadership races itself.

What do you think about the fact that what Lindsay was saying is accurate, there isn't a single member now in the leadership there that's, well, over the age 35.

This is a very young group of people, a couple of them have run for office unsuccessfully in the past, but what do you make of the fact that this particular slate of people were elected by the delegates.

Natalie Gochnour: Well, I think the fact that their young is really interesting, right?

I want to see them succeed and thrive in their roles.

The questions I would be asking is can they raise money, can they organize, and can they build a big enough tent to attract mainstream Republicans.

And that's the real challenge that they're gonna face.

I love their youth, but they've got to be able to deliver for the party.

Jason Perry: So, Natalie, to that great point as Derek Brown was going out, he was talking about the person that they should select, that the party should select a leader forward, and there are a couple of key themes of what you just said and is very-- I want to read it and just kinda get your comment about it from Derek Brown, because it's kind of given a warning based on what you just said as well.

This is what he said, "The luxury of a super majority can also allow a party to be sloppy and unfocused and still win elections.

My concern is we may not have that luxury in the next five to 10 years.

And whether that is the case has everything to do with the party remaining strong," and as you said funded.

Natalie Gochnour: Mm-hmm, well, and I would say that, you know, the core tenets of the Republican Party, a limited government, fiscal restraint, free enterprise, free trade, balanced federalism, we're not talking about those, and that's a real problem moving forward, because Republicans that believe in a conservative ideology are struggling with where they fit.

Jason Perry: So we saw that, Ben, what you started talking about this on the program here.

So this super majority we have in the state of Utah and Republican Party, many may say, you know, you have so many people here, you hold all these statewide positions, you know, there's just gonna be--they're gonna stay in power, and Derek is maybe signaling you can't really take that for granted.

Ben Winslow: That was the theme that was brought up by the speakers from a leadership on down all at the convention, which was they were warning that states around Utah are flipping blue, and there seemed to be a real paranoia that this could happen here, and they kept warning about that repeatedly just saying we could be next.

This is why you need to pick this person or you need to pick this person, or this is why we need to maintain our hold in federal offices and statewide offices.

You do wonder with the shifting demographics in Utah if we're starting to go a little purple, even though we are still very red.

Jason Perry: Mm-hmm, that is true.

What about that funding part right there?

Because if some of that core leaves, you know, in your super majority you have one end of the spectrum that is all in on a couple of these candidates, but you have the other end of the spectrum that is just not what these delegates anymore, what happens to that funding and their ability to really financially help the candidates going forward?

Ben Winslow: Well, we elected as Republican Party leadership a group of millennials, but do they have money?

And you need money to win elections, and you need money to pay for the signs, the advertisements, all of those things.

The question that I wonder is if because a lot of these state leadership-backed candidates didn't win, does the money get pulled back, and is the new incoming leadership of the Republican Party having to do more grass roots or having to at least make some concessions to the people with the bigger pocket books?

Natalie Gochnour: Jason and Ben, I want to make the link here, though, there's a link here between fundraising and your policies, right?

And so many of our business leaders look for a more, you know, more pragmatism in our conservatism.

And they look for solutions.

They don't look for rhetoric.

They don't look for, you know, booing at conventions.

They look for people that wanna have limited government and an inclusive party, and if you're not doing that, you're not gonna be able to raise money.

So to me, it's very--it has very much an ideology connection as much as just, you know, are they grassroots.

Jason Perry: Wow, so Lindsay, to this very great point about the ideology and the policy, a little bit of a showdown already maybe a signal for that with who sets that, 'cause of course once they get elected they set the policy.

The Republican Party is trying to set some of those priorities as well, but we saw a sort of a text that shows an ideology even from the new chair, where Jorgensen is saying we need to make sure going forward that we show that the legislature and the Governor is beholden to the party, the party is not beholden to those elected officials.

Lindsay Whitehurst: The folks that tend to be at convention tend to be further right.

They tend to be very conservative and that that section of the party.

One of the reasons why you've seen Mitt Romney not only this time but at other points, too, not have the warmest reception, you know, you see him as more moderate, voted for the impeachment of Donald Trump, and so there can be a little bit of a disconnect there.

One thing I think that's kind of cool about the convention system is you don't necessarily need a lot of money to come in and get people's attention.

You know, you can have your booth and you can talk to a relatively small group of people and convince folks to come over to your point of view just on that one-on-one kind of classic political basis, but partly because it's a very long day, it's a lot of time, you have the people who are most passionate about a certain point of view, and that of course tends to be that furthest right.

So there can be a little bit of a disconnect when you go out into the wider electorate, which does tend to be a little more moderate, and so that-- you have to balance all those factors, right?

I mean, there is a little bit of the divide in Utah Republican Party.

There has been among Utah Republicans anyway.

There has been a divide, and yes, it coincided with Donald Trump, and so you have to balance all those competing interests.

It's a tall order.

Jason Perry: It is.

Ben Winslow: Well, into that point, though, the motion to censure Senator Romney failed, narrowly, but it's still failed.

Jason Perry: Mm-hmm, so let's get to that point, too, 'cause I want to get your insight, Natalie, about the booing.

So, Ben just talked about it, and so they're booing some people that are pretty popular in the state of Utah.

You look at Governor Cox, for example.

His approval numbers have gone up every single month since he's been in office.

He's around 66% in the last poll that we did, yet even he was booed with this particular group.

Give us some historical perspective, because this is not necessarily new at these conventions.

Natalie Gochnour: Well, I--you know, I worked with former Governor Mike Leavitt, and you know, he was a very popular governor.

When he ran for his third term in office at the convention, he got booed.

If I remember correctly, the issue was guns in schools and churches and then also some RS2477 road issues, but he was forced into a primary, and you know, it horrified those of us that worked so closely with the governor, because he had an 80% plus approval rating.

But there's an important lesson here, and he would tell you that he learned something.

He got too far away from some of the sentiment of important folks in the base and in the party, and so there's always a debate that goes on in the Governor's office about how you need to be touching the people and connecting with the people.

Jason Perry: So, Lindsay, you mentioned a point here that people are talking' about already after this, if you tend to have more conservative people there that are the delegates that are showing up, and then we haven't sorted more moderate Republicans in the state of Utah, there's been some question about how these new officials are going to approach that Senate Bill 54, the thing that allows candidates to do the signature gathering route, because some of these more moderate candidates might not fair very well with that particular group, and that's been the argument all along.

What are you hearing about our new leadership here in the Republican Party and how they're going to approach that issue?

Lindsay Whitehurst: That's gonna be an interesting thing going forward, Right.

What do you do about this.

In the past, the leadership has taken the court route, and that hasn't gone their way and has been expensive, back to the money question, right?

And what do you spend your money on and how do you get that money, but there has been some legislative efforts in this last session.

Although they didn't get all the way to finish line by a long stretch, but we could see that come back and perhaps there's a legislative route to change part of that bill, and we'll see how popular that idea is once you get into a little bit wider setting.

So far those efforts have been unsuccessful, that-- Candidates who gather signatures to get on the ballot do tend to be more moderate, and they do tend to win when it comes to a general election, so that's gonna be a really interesting back and forth.

Jason Perry: It definitely is.

One of the themes that came up with that particular group on Saturday, and we're seeing across the country, Ben, is I'll just the Trump factor, even in Washington, D.C., and with our Senate, for example, is asking to what extent is there still a Trump factor in that Republican Party?

You're interviewing lots of people about these kinds of things, what's your sense of it?

Is the Republican Party still connected to former President Trump, and how essential is he gonna be or not be in the next election cycle?

Ben Winslow: I think it's what everybody's still trying to figure out right now is how much does that help or hurt you, because President Trump was a very polarizing figure and for even Republicans, it's does it help or does it hurt you, and do his policies--do you align with those, do you take the more Utah approach to things, which tends to be more moderate in tone approach?

What we saw I think at Saturday's convention was that being wrestled amongst the delegates themselves.

Again, a lot of sentiment against Senator Romney for his impeachment votes, but yet that motion to censure fails.

You see also different--who gets picked as far as state party leadership, you know, that seems to attract a more populist sentiment, which seems to go along the lines of you know how President Trump ran the party or at least had, you know, involvement in the party.

But then you see how the state typically handles other things, and then you have leaders like Governor Cox, who tends to take a more moderate tone.

So I think what you're seeing is this is all just getting hashed out in public view.

Jason Perry: You know, one of the areas this week was on National TV, one of our own-- our former elected official Congresswoman Mia Love, so Natalie, I just want to get your thoughts about that, because she has really been out there talking about President Trump, really asking whether or not he is worth it to the Republican Party for the toll that some of the candidates are taking, but what some of the other candidates are going to need to do to go forward to really try to stay connected, and that's what you're talking about, stay connected to that core part of the party, which is what some feel compelled to do.

Natalie Gochnour: Yeah, right?

You know, I'm a Republican woman who just cheers every time I see Mia Love on CNN as one of their correspondents from Saratoga Springs, Utah, commenting on things, and she's basically saying, you know, it's wrong to have a party that's personality-based.

We should be based in ideology and on principles that will make our country great.

So she's--I've really applauded what she's been doing.

Jason Perry: We did have high level officials talking about the administration, 'cause the Democrats are putting out their own plans, and a lot of them are coming through various stimulus packages, infrastructure, but particularly about education and the vaccine.

Lindsay, talk about this very high-profile visit we just got from the first Lady of the United States, Dr. Jill Biden.

Natalie Gochnour: Right, yeah, she came, and she visited a school in Salt Lake City, one of the most diverse schools in the state, and it's an interesting thing the Biden administration is trying to nudge more schools in the US towards reopening.

Here in Utah, most of our schools have been reopened since the fall, but nationally it's closer to, you know, like 60%, something like that, so just over half, so that means there's a significant portion of schools that heaven reopened yet, and of course, you have to do that safely and keep everybody safe in your school environment, but we also know there are some bad outcomes for kids if things stay online, that doesn't work for every kid, and so there can be some real challenges there, too, so in that--and we have some good public health data that indicates if these precautions are taken at school, school can be a safe place for kids, you know, relatively speaking in this world that we're in right now.

So the Biden administration has been kinda nudging schools to reopen, and that wasn't necessarily an explicit topic of conversation when Jill Biden made her remarks, which are respecting teachers, all the terrific work they've done during this crazy year, and of course pro-vaccination, but that was sort of--there's a subtext there I think as we're talking as a country, like the Biden administration would like to see more schools reopening and more vaccination rates are going to help that, so.

Jason Perry: How's this message being received?

How was it yesterday?

Go ahead, Natalie.

Natalie Gochnour: Well, I just wanted to ask Lindsay, Ben, you Jason, do we know why she came?

And the reason I'm asking that is, you know, I've worked in Washington, I've watched how Cabinet members, you know, in this case the first Lady, do their strategic scheduling, but we don't typically get visits this early, especially in a Republican-dominated state from a First Lady, and I'm just asking the question what made them make this visit to our state?

Lindsay Whitehurst: If I were gonna guess, so this was part of a western swing.

She also stopped in Nevada and in Colorado, too, which are more Democratic states than Utah is, right?

Natalie Gochnour: For strategic scheduling, that does make sense.

Lindsay Whitehurst: If I were gonna guess, I would say that this was a way to highlight a school--one thing, the schools that have not reopened in the US, there are more students of color who are still learning online.

So if I were gonna guess, I would say look here's a school where it's a very diverse population, it's reopen, we've seen student grades improve at Glendale Middle, and so if I were her strategists, which I am not, and they are not whispering in my ear just to be clear, that's what I would say is, hey, you can go to this school and you can highlight how when schools reopen with this diverse student population, here are some good outcomes we can have.

Jason Perry: So, Ben, maybe just a comment from you, because we talk--I've talked with you about this in the past.

It would have been really easy to--she was heading to Nevada.

It would have been really easy to just fly over the state of Utah, but more and more often, people do touchdown here for a moment.

Ben Winslow: I think it's--you can signal to leadership even in the opposing party we're willing to work with you on some things, too, making that visit, making that connection, you know, our door is open to listen you.

Lindsay Whitehurst: Of course, Governor Cox meeting her and the First Lady.

Jason Perry: Yes, and the First Lady, they're both there.

Ben Winslow: As well as members of the federal congressional delegation, yeah.

Jason Perry: Yeah, it was it was it was interesting to see all sides of the aisle all there, particularly on two issues that both parties are quite interested in.

You know, it's a good sign sometimes when you see people just really want to be in Utah to see the Utah approach to things, particularly since something happened this last weekend on the Utah approach to things.

The end game.

Ben Winslow: That's right.

Jason Perry: We had this bill during the legislative session, House Bell 294, so Natalie, let's talk about it for just a moment, because Representative Paul Ray, it was like if we hit certain metrics in the state of Utah, it was kind of controversial at the time.

Ben Winslow: We Thanos snapped that pandemic.

Jason Perry: Ben has called it, but there are a couple of things, you know, it was like the 14-day case for example, the ICU utilization, the number of vaccines allocation that went out, so we've hit those, Natalie, this past week--at least the ones that were set out by statute, but 'cause I guess the question is kind of what we just got back from Ben, you know, that's kind of just overnight we hit the metrics, and I guess the now what?

What does that mean?

Natalie Gochnour: I love seeing our state being data-driven.

I love that we're, you know, coming out of this.

I will say that I attended the University of Utah Convocation yesterday, and it was a moment of light, because we're back doing things.

We were very careful.

Normally we're in the Huntsman center, we were at rice Eccles outside, but we celebrated in the David Eccles School of business some amazing graduates, and it just reminded me of how we're gettin' there.

Jason Perry: Yeah, well, we clearly are, and Lindsay you're interviewing these officials there, how has--has anything changed really kinda over that now we hit these metrics?

And so a lot of the restrictions are gone, but what remains?

Lindsay Whitehurst: A few things.

There's of course a number of private businesses that are still requiring masks, and there are a few other places, schools of course are the big one, and that has been controversial among a certain set of people.

There are some very vocal folks who are very unhappy about that, including at the Granite School Board meeting this past week.

Jason Perry: So, for people who don't know.

Lindsay Whitehurst: The meeting had to adjourn early, police were involved.

It was a pandemonium kind of a scene from what I understand, and so but the reason why, of course, that schools--the Governor said we are keeping this mask mandate through the end of the school year, and the reason why they're doing this, a lot of kids can't get vaccines yet.

It's 16 and up, so some high school kids can and hopefully soon it will be opened up to 12 and up, so all that to the good but right now a lot of kids can't get that vaccine, and the studies have shown that when you wear the masks, when you do the distancing, that transmission rates are very low, and we want kids to be in school.

You know, we we want them to to be learning in school, and I know my school age child is much better at school in person versus trying to teach at home.

So those are all the reasons why, and of course, this isn't unique to Utah.

Other places have also had these very vocal calls to drop masks mandates, and some places are doing that before the end of the year, but it's a minority now, of course.

In the fall, sounds like things will be different, that there won't be a mask mandate for schools anymore, and hopefully by then there'll be a decent portion of vaccination rates among those kids who are able to get that.

Jason Perry: So just a moment on that, Ben, because I know you've talked to people about it as well.

It was a recent poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

People are really trying to understand will people get their kids vaccinated, will it be right at the beginning, will they wait and see, and this number said 29% of the parents-- this is across the country--say they will vaccinate their children right away, 32% of them said that they will wait to see what happens, 50% said only if the school requires.

What are you hearing from people and your expectation based on his conversations in Utah?

Because we're not going to get any kind of herd immunity without our children being vaccinated.

Ben Winslow: Well, the latest thing that we've heard from the Utah Department of Health when they presented to a legislative committee that I was in was that they expect herd immunity through vaccination by the end of this summer, which is really good, and we have had really good vaccination rates so far.

You know, to be clear with the Endgame Bill, these were all numbers negotiated by the Department of Health, these are all signs of really good progress.

We've hit those thresholds for vaccinations.

So I think you can expect to see people--we've had a high adoption rate so far.

People want the vaccine.

People have really tried to get it, and the state is now trying to find ways to make sure that people who just--their schedule hasn't worked out are getting it, and I think when you bring that down to 12 to 15, including them, that is going to also probably see a high adoption rate, which is all good things in terms of saying you don't have to wear masks, you don't have to physical distance, you don't have to do all those things anymore.

And you know, the state epidemiologist yesterday, Dr. Angela Dunn, said that getting 12 to 15 year olds is the next big step for this state, because it will really cause cases to plummet, which again lifts all the restrictions that we technically just already lifted, but it lifts all those restrictions, it removes all of those barriers that we've all been living under for the last year.

Jason Perry: Well, this has been such an interesting conversation, and there's been a thread through all of it, too, about the, you know, the impacts of certain populations in the state, which impacts politics, impacts our health, all the disparities that exist are just part of the political process but part of being a Utahn as well.

And Natalie, I want to ask you about that.

You just released yesterday a really insightful piece as you've been researching diversity in the state of Utah.

You know, we talk about you know demographics as destiny, we often talk about that in terms of politics, for example, but what you've just laid bare in the research that you submitted yesterday is everything, you know, where we live, where we go to school, how long we live, so many things that are really based on these demographics about where we are in those demographics.

Will you please tell us about the study itself and a couple of key findings, because it's not often you get a mirror that really just hold up and you see for real what's happening.

Natalie Gochnour: You know, happy to do that, Jason, and mirror is the right way to think of it.

We took a collective look in the mirror.

It was asked of us by the business community sponsored by Zions Bank.

And we basically looked at health, housing, education, the economy, and then 50 some odd indicators by race, and you know, concluded that there are significant racial, ethnic, and sex disparities in our state.

That was finding number one as we looked in the mirror.

Number two would be that our community recognizes we can do a lot better, and we reached out to, you know, political leaders, business leaders, interfaith community, the multicultural community.

All said we can do better.

And then third the study points out our strengths, so that we can build from our strengths.

And we have nation-leading social capital, family stability, economic equality, and upward mobility, and so those are--that's in a nutshell, those are the findings, but a very consequential research report from the Gardner Institute.

Jason Perry: What happens next?

I know the great thing about the Gardner Policy Institute is you mostly--well, you always, right?

You just shed light on the issue.

What are you hearing is going to happen next as a state as we look at the issues of disparities, you know, in all the demographics in the state of Utah.

Jason, it's a foundational piece, because before this we all talked but we didn't know the data.

Now we have the data in a very credible way presented to us.

We're not aware of any other state that's done anything quite like this, so the next steps are for decision-makers, our leaders to look at this data and internalize it and think what do we do, and I think it's a moment of clarity for our state.

Jason Perry: So, Ben, talk about that for just a moment, through a political lens also, our demographics are changing, and there are disparities everywhere as we're seeing that from the research we just got from Natalie.

Talk about that from that through a political lens.

Ben Winslow: Well, and we saw it through the pandemic as well the disparities that existed, and it's partly why the state has shifted some of its focus on vaccinations, reaching some of these underserved communities, but yes, this translates to policy.

This is something that every lawmaker on Capitol Hill can wave around and show and say look, this is why, you know, my task force on food insecurity, or this is why my health care bill should go forward, why you should pass this, why we should fund this with taxpayer dollars.

This is data that lets them tout that and make that decision.

Jason Perry: Yeah, so helpful to have the data.

Sometimes it's really hard, you gotta have it.

Thank you for that, too, Natalie.

And thank you all for your really great insights tonight on some very important issues.

And thank you for watching "The Hinckley Report."

This show is also available as a podcast on PBSUtah.org/HinckleyReport or wherever you get your podcasts.

Tonight we would like to recognize two members of our team who are leaving us this season, Dana Barraco and Brock Grossl.

We wish them luck in all their future endeavors and thank them and thank you for being with us.

We'll see you next season.

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