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♪ David: to hear some people tell it, New Jersey is getting as purple as a prince song.

Hey everybody.

It's Reporters Roundtable.

Our panel includes Stacy Sherman, senior and iterative Bloomberg.

Daniel Han, reporter for Politico NJ.

And Charles style, reporter for USA Today network.

We begin today with a look at what impact President Trump's performance in the presidential election here in Jersey is having on the New Jersey Republican party.

We haven't seen Senator algia Veazey in a while so it's nice to welcome her back.

Hi.

>> hi David.

How are you?

David: we are doing well, thank you.

How about that?

is Jersey purpler than before the presidential election?

Will it be more purple come November?

>> unequivocally.

We saw in the selection areas that have been quote unquote blue for probably the past decade if not two.

For the first time went red.

Areas of southern Bergen County, all throughout the state.

We've also seen voter registration with a big drop in Democrats, an increase in the Republicans.

There is still a gap.

One that favors Democrats in the state.

Particularly amongst minority groups, blue-collar workers who have been working day in and day out who have been taxed to death , watching the state go so far left, I think this is the natural progression and the swing back to the center if not center-right that has historically occurred.

David: was it Trump or did the Democrats not read the room correctly?

>> I think it was a perfect storm of both.

Democrats in New Jersey took it for granted because of how single party control health for too long.

A lot of their initiatives, most people in New Jersey, if you talk to them on the fields, and schools, just going around day today, they don't want to be the California of the East Coast.

I think that this is them singing uncle, some of these policies are not things that we support or agree with.

The cost of living, the ability to keep up in New Jersey, coupled with the recovery after the pandemic I think has swayed a lot of people to try something different and vote for the Republican Party to try to shake the tree up.

We have better fiscal policy.

We have much more moderate social policies.

I think we resonate right now with a lot more of the residents of the state.

David: he's clearly having an impact on your party, especially judging by the gubernatorial candidates who seem to be saying that they are Trumpier than the other guy.

>> to a certain extent.

I think with any sort of primary , you have to appeal to the base.

Trump right now is very popular with the base.

It's no different than on the Democratic side.

They are hopping over each other to prove who is the most progressive, who is the most and he can like.

I think both parties have to be a little bit cautious in a purple state like New Jersey because once you make it through the primary, you still have to be palatable to the rest of the population at large in order to win.

David: let me get a couple of quick panel questions here.

>> hi.

Good morning Senator.

I'm curious what you think the impact would be down ballot for Republicans if Bill Stadia is the Republican nominee for governor.

>> it's actually an interesting question.

I don't think there will be any sort of measurable positive or negative down ballot.

Other than his show, he really doesn't have it, a history with respect to votes or legislative initiatives.

I don't know if it'll have any sort of real sizable impact down ballot.

David: yeah.

Good morning.

Just in general, can a Republican candidate who endorses Trump win in November in New Jersey?

you alluded to this earlier.

This is still a purple, a blue state.

Democrats have an 800 34,000 voter advantage here in the state.

I ask that also in the contest of some of the actions that Trump has taken since he's been in office.

Dismantling government, puckering up to Putin.

[LAUGHTER] Slashing research funds for biomedical research which is a big issue in New Jersey.

I'm just wondering, can a Trump-endorsed candidate win in November in New Jersey?

>> I believe they can.

As everybody on this panel knows, March until November might as well be seven lifetimes away.

A lot can change during that time.

I think that right now, you have time to implement policy trying to shake stuff up at the federal level.

Do I agree with everything taking place?

no.

Do I want to ensure by way of example that any sort of cuts don't disproportionately impact New Jersey, our most vulnerable residents?

but I think with respect to the people of New Jersey, they are for the most part educated smart voters.

And when they see in June all of their utility prices going up another 20%, when they are trying to figure out do I pay my property taxes, my utility bill, or my mortgage.

I think those are going to be the more core items.

Whoever has the best plan to navigate through and make New Jersey a place that people can actually stay will end up winning.

I think the Trump factor as much as the Democrats will try to blast whatever perceived miss doing of the president that day will be their campaign.

They don't have any other real campaign to run against our candidates.

I think if we stick to the issues that are most important to New Jersey residents, we win regardless.

David: do you want to take a minute to eviscerate the governor's $58 billion budget?

>> it's a complete and utter insanity.

I feel bad for Greg Coughlin.

This is going to be put into his lap with all of his members up, having to make the difficult choices of who gets cut, what programs get cut.

As they navigate through budget season.

The 50 billion is I think dead on arrival because it's also predicated upon additional taxes .

The billions and billions of dollars.

I know it sounds, we are just going to tax rich people of Saddle River if they want to sell their homes.

The practicality is that it's not.

It's an investment tax.

Wanting to tripled attacks in New Jersey impacts on every business, every piece of land.

It's going to raise and increase costs on rent for multifamily projects as they force this insane new affordable housing law.

I think what we are going to see as everybody is going to be pointing at the federal government going, look at what they are doing to us.

Yet we will see the same magnitude of cuts in New Jersey for a lot of programs that I don't think people are anticipating.

David: a tough year ahead economically in New Jersey.

>> I think so.

Honestly, once we start seeing additional increases in health care costs once again.

You have the utilities going up by 20% and people are going to start getting slammed for 12-bedroom apartment, $800 a month and utility bills that they can't afford.

That coupled with the inflation that's taking place over the past several years, people are really struggling.

I think we are going to see that impact just as we enter into the summer.

David: alright.

Always good to talk to you.

Thanks for coming on with us.

>> thank you David.

David: all right, panel.

Welcome.

Good to see you all.

Let's start with the concept of a purple jersey.

Fact or fantasy?

>> traditionally jersey is more purple than people realize.

Especially in the governor's race.

Over the past 50 years, we've had three.

Litman, Kane, Kristi.

Republican governors.

It's not solid blue.

The numbers have grown certainly to the Democrats advantage.

But I think last year was a shock.

I think also 2021 was a bit of a shock.

It demonstrated that the red streak is still very much alive.

>> in New Jersey, wheeling Democratic because we want funding for education and for social programs and services.

We also hate our taxes.

That's why we end up every once in a while voting a Republican in and liking what they do because they cut these taxes as compared to a Murphy, Governor Murphy who has been increasing taxes since he came to office.

David: we love our cake and we want to eat it.

What do you think?

purpler?

>> look.

I think that New Jersey is definitely a blue leaning state.

800,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

But a couple years ago, that was a million more registered Democrats.

When you look at the 21 cycle, the governor's race, the 24 presidency, those races were a lot closer than anyone anticipated.

Coming within single digits.

If you are looking to November 2025, no one on the Democratic side or the Republican side is ruling out the possibility of a Republican victory.

It might be a stretch to say that it's a straight toss up the moment.

No one is precluding or ruling out the fact that Republicans are making inroads right now in the state.

David: New Jersey's budget was officially published this week.

We will stay here with you.

Did you read it?

what did you find that was interesting?

no and nothing are except planters here.

>> a couple hundred pages is definitely some good light reading for bedtime.

I think that it's really important to think of the budget in two contexts.

The state-level context and the federal context.

On the state level the question is, will Democrats when the assembly is up want to agree to some of the Murphy tax hikes?

around 1.2 billion.

On the federal level the question is, what happens with federal funding?

there's been a lot of discussion around billions of dollars of Medicaid.

The governor's office just put out a statement with Greg Coughlin this week lasting some $26 million cut from school food pantry programs.

Is that something that the state comes in to try to plug?

these are questions we are going to have to consider heading into the budget season.

David: as an old-school scribe, I know you poured over every word in that budget.

Did you not?

>> yeah.

I started at 6:00 a.m.

I was all over it.

Sure.

I think Daniel put his finger on the challenge ahead.

I don't think you will see the Democrats supporting most or all of those tax increases.

They've made it clear from the moment that the governor delivered his speech that those were pretty much dead on arrival.

But there's negotiating room in the next couple weeks.

The biggest thing is Medicaid.

Despite their assurances from Trump that they are not going to touch Medicaid, not going to cut actual programs, they can also defund them by cutting them out of money that's going into them.

Therefore forcing cuts.

If that happens, New Jersey could be facing a potential $5 billion -- I think that's a worst-case case scenario.

$5 billion hole.

That's not something that they will be able to fix.

That's 9% of the state budget.

It will be cataclysmic for poor people.

David: hearings are set to begin on March 19.

Stacy, now that you are a big shot editor, you don't have to go to these.

Do you miss it?

>> I do miss it.

There's nothing like covering New Jersey.

I used to read all that budget.

I did not read this budget but I got the gist of it.

I think it's interesting.

The first budget, I was covering New Jersey for Murphy's first budget.

I remember how angry he was peak care -- was.

We had some headline like, Murphy raises taxes on almost everything.

Something like that.

He did not like that.

But it's an interesting strategy.

It compares to a governor just trying to increase one tax which was the sales tax at the time.

Murphy is trying a different way.

He's been doing this on smaller tax increases, on a heck of a lot of things.

I don't know which strategy is better.

But I don't think New Jerseyans are naïve.

They can tell a tax increase is a tax increase.

Overall, you can try to hide it or blended or mix it but it's a tax increase that they don't want.

David: it will still go quack.

Politics now.

Charles, let me come back to you.

You had an interesting column on the Newark Mayor.

I've been telling people, don't sleep on him.

What are you seeing out there?

>> I just think he speaks to the part of the party base that's angry, that feels that nobody in the Democratic Party is actually speaking directly and clearly to democratic values and unapologetically.

That's the thing about it.

I'm a Democrat, I'm not going to walk away from immigrants, not going to walk away from LGBTQ people.

I'm going to fight for racial disaggregation in the schools.

A lawsuit that's been bogged down for eight years since Murphy took office.

I think it's that unapologetic style that really hits accord.

I think it shows that the grassroots that were aflame last year under Andy Kim, it wasn't all just about the machine.

It was about a sense of the party walking away from its identity.

Its core identity.

He's addressing that.

People are responding.

Whether that makes him the nominee is still a big question.

David: thoughts on Baraka?

>> I think that Baraka is performing better than most anyone expected in a race at the moment.

If you look at some of the county convention results which don't mean a lot these days.

He's had a pretty consistent second-place showing.

Not all of the contest but most of the contests.

He's really able to appeal to the base of the party.

Especially some of the more progressive's.

Often on the campaign trail, he will say that he's not looking to run to the middle.

He's unapologetically progressive.

He's running to the left.

The big question is, if he's the Democratic nominee, is that a message that could win November?

he would definitely be one-off if not the most progressive or left-leaning Democratic nominees in New Jersey governor Tori history.

2 -- David: Baraka coming in second in all of the county conventions for what that's worth.

But the candidate who has won the most has been Mikey Cheryl.

Does she warrant frontrunner status?

>> I think we hold off on that.

I think what's interesting is this is a primary race right now.

Not a general election race.

So those six Democrats running are running for Democratic votes.

It's always interesting what the message is.

I think the question is, will they be able to win a general?

David: how do you pivot once the fall comes around?

Dan, you reposted a quote from Governor Murphy in reference to last year's Senate primaries.

Noted on Nancy Solomon's calling show on WNYC that Kim didn't defeat Tammy.

Tammy pulled out to preserve the party and to keep unity.

Quick answer from all three of you.

If Andy one, did Tammy lose?

>> this may be a distinction without a difference.

Tammy dropped out to preserve the Democratic Party.

She was also not winning the primary in that moment.

David: nicely dodged.

All right.

>> let's flip that around.

If Tammy Murphy thought she was going to win this, she would've stayed in and unified the party.

I don't buy this argument.

David: what about that?

>> I think she was going to lose and that's why she dropped out.

I don't think there's really too much of a debate about that.

>> I can't say it any better than Charlie.

Any candidate that doesn't think they are going to win drops out.

So obviously she was losing in the race.

Or didn't see a path to winning.

David: alright.

I was talking with Bonnie Watson Coleman about how note to Susie -- New Jersey Republican lawmakers are abstaining from public town halls.

She had an interesting comment.

Let's hear it and then talk about it when we come back.

>> I'm willing to go into the districts with them.

I'm willing to go into their districts being invited and without them.

But I think that the people there have a right to know just like the people have a right to know in the 12th Congressional District.

So we are going to show up.

The question is, do my three Republican colleagues have the spine to show up?

David: Democrats holding town halls in Republican districts.

How would that go over?

>> it would be great theater.

I mean, it would all depend on the location and timing of everything.

But I think it would be pretty good theater.

I wouldn't be surprised to see somebody like of Andrew show up.

He is so deep and steeped in his beliefs in MAGA values.

I know about Chris Smith.

I think he stays undercounter.

We know that Tom came doesn't talk that much in public if at all.

David: good theater, right?

>> it certainly would be.

I think the broader purpose of this is to underscore the fact that with such a narrow Republican majority in Congress, all he could take to derail legislation are New Jersey's three Republican numbers of the house.

I think this underscores that.

David: news that the diversity pole will be closing down.

They've been a leader in the game for years now.

Less insight for voters and for us in the press, right?

>> it's a shame.

Patrick right is very well known.

Quoted often it's a shame.

It's a bad for New Jersey.

Our polling Institute was very well-regarded.

I do think the whole issue of pulling has changed things.

The polls -- it is so difficult to predict elections.

No matter how good your poll is.

It's just a tough business and it's getting tougher.

David: yeah.

What do you think?

we've depended on these polls for years now.

>> absolutely.

David: this is a big one.

>> it's absolutely a huge loss for New Jersey.

You could argue for the nation.

Patrick's was widely regarded -- I think it was 528 or one of the major rated polling firms.

In the top-ranked of polls nationally.

I don't really understand the Board of Directors on this one.

Yes, the program where you see a return on your investment in real dollars.

But it elevated the name of Monmouth University far better than some of their other marketing, which urged people to enroll because they were a college near the beach.

It brought gravitas and stature to not only the Monmouth University but the state of New Jersey.

I think it's a huge loss.

David: agreed.

That's roundtable for this week.

Charles, Stacy, Daniel, good to see you all.

Thanks for coming out with us.

Thank you for the senator joining us earlier.

We are on blue sky now.

You can follow us there.

Find more of our work when you subscribe to the NJ Spotlight News YouTube channel.

I'm David Cruise.

For all the crew here at Gateway Center in downtown Newark, thank you for watching.

We will see you again next week.

Announcer: Major funding for "Reporters Roundtable" is provided by RWJ Barnabas Health.

Let's be healthy together.

Rowan University.

Educating New Jersey leaders.

Partnering with New Jersey businesses.

Transforming New Jersey's future.

♪