[Theme music] It's getting harder and harder to avoid the New Jersey governor's race.

Welcome to October.

Hey everybody, it's Reporters Roundtable.

I'm David Cruz.

We're making the final turn towards Election Day.

And our panel of Jersey Watchers today includes Colleen O'Day with NJ Spotlight News, Jelani Gibson with NJ.com, and Madison Fernandez of Politico NJ.

Panel, good to see you all.

Welcome.

Let's start with the burning question of the week.

Thoughts on the lieutenant governor's debate.

Colleen, go.

It was very civil.

I mean, wow, it was quiet.

You could see the audience wasn't very large.

But these are folks who are, you know, really not even the second most powerful person in the state when you consider the leaders of the legislature.

I mean, I think there were a couple points that were scored.

I know that the Sheryl campaign immediately came out after Chittarelli's Lieutenant Governor candidate Jim Gannon said, "Yeah, taxes are on the table."

So I know that was a point there and Chittarelli came out with something about, or the Chittarelli camp came out with an attack after Caldwell talked about National Guard attacks.

So, I mean, there were maybe a couple points, Ward, but I mean, overall it was pretty bland.

Jelani, lots of Z's is what I was told.

Z's as in, you know, when you're standing.

Yeah, I mean, look, you know, you're usually going to get lots of Z's at a variety of political debates.

I mean, lots of Z's used to be what we expected.

Right?

Like, that used to be, like, it used to be the norm, but now we've just gotten so used to a lot more fireworks that this, to be clear, is what a normal debate would have looked like back in, like, 2010, 2005.

And so, you know, maybe it was lots of Z's, but I guess you could also say it was perhaps a return to civility or normalcy.

I don't know.

- What's wrong with this guy?

Let's have a special round table welcome for Madison Fernandez, making her round table debut today.

Madison, welcome.

- Thank you.

- So erstwhile of the Ithaca voice, huh?

- Yes, way back when.

- Yes.

How, what's the difference between working in Jersey, Trenton and the beat in Ithaca?

What did you cover in Ithaca?

I covered local government in Ithaca.

It's much colder and snowier.

I haven't had the pleasure of a full winter in New Jersey yet.

Yes colder in Ithaca.

Yeah.

All right.

All right.

So you're one of the rising stars at Politico impacting the governor's race with some good pieces.

Get us started a month out.

Is there any momentum on either side.

I think that we knew this was going to be a tight race and it's really coming, becoming especially clear now.

You know, you have some polls showing Jack Cittarelli within striking distance of Mikey Sherrill, you know, take polls with a grain of salt, but I think it could help establish momentum and draw some attention to the race.

I think that there have been some perhaps distractions in terms of messaging, you know, all the records and things like that, but I think it really is going to come down to affordability and the economy, and that's what voters are going to care about.

So sure, they could be trading hits on all these sorts of other things, and it might shift a few voters, but I think by and large it's going to be about the economy, and that's been pretty consistent over the last couple of months.

>> Colleen, when I talk to Democrats, they say we've got the momentum.

Republicans say they've got the momentum.

Who's got the momentum?

>> Oh, such a good question.

I mean, I think it depends on where you are, right?

I've been out at campaign events with both candidates, and certainly when you're out with Jack Ciattarelli, he really seems to connect with voters.

He does fist bumps.

He's hugging people.

He's very Jersey Italian, I think.

He's eating pizza the right way.

I think Mikey Sherrill, yes, no knife and fork, right?

We're clear about that.

You know, Mikey Sherrill certainly has her different way of connecting with people.

She's, you know, a lot kind of calmer.

She, you know, she just can smile and, you know, talk with children.

She's not a big hugger from what I've seen, and she's not good with the fist bumps, with the dap.

She don't got that down yet.

She doesn't do that, but that doesn't mean that there's anything wrong with that.

Right.

There's anything wrong with that.

You know, she is, she is a, she is who she is.

And she certainly seems to be, or her message certainly seems to be resonating with a, you know, the democratic segment and maybe some independence in the state.

Yeah.

Jelani has her or has have either of the candidates adjusted the way they approached campaigning or their messaging over the last month that has been noticeable to you?

Well, I wouldn't say that they've adjusted the way that they've campaigned so much as they've tried to adjust the way that they double down on their strengths.

And so, you know, Jack Chitorelli's strength is that, you know, quite frankly, time and time again, you'll hear from voters that he's a better improviser, a better talker, more, you know, learned about the topics in terms of how he can cite policy line by line.

And then you know Mikey Cheryl's campaigns strength and the people that support her are talking about the way that she can connect with people particularly parents particularly people with children and things like that.

So both of those campaigns are really leaning into their strengths and simultaneously attacking one another while they lean into their strengths as these final days come through.

All right, let's talk about the Navy records thingy.

That's the official name of it.

Navy records thingy.

Has the story gotten any clearer, Madison?

So the National Archives Inspector General said this week that they are going to be launching an investigation into the improper release of the records, of Sheryl's records, to a Chittarelli ally.

I think that—I mean, this is obviously what Sheryl and Democrats were asking for.

I think that it kind of takes part of the rallying cry out of it in the sense of saying, "We need an investigation."

So then on the other hand, you have the Chittarelli campaign still urging Sheryl to release records from her time during the Naval Academy to explain why she didn't walk at graduation, which she hasn't done yet.

And I think that, you know, part of it is, obviously, as a journalist, I would love more transparency and to see the records.

But I think it also would sort of set a standard in a way for other veterans who are running for office to, you know, maybe have to release these records and whatever sort of situation they're in and their campaigns, their opponent could say, hey, look, Mikey Sherrill did it.

You should release it, too.

And, you know, the reality is that's a personal choice for them.

So I think that the Cherilly campaign is going to obviously keep urging her to release these.

And again, like I said before, I don't know if it's necessarily the top issue for voters.

Yeah.

Colleen, clearly those records are not forthcoming.

What is the outrage from the Sherrill camp about?

Invasion of privacy?

It was a FOIA request.

Right.

But I think what happened as part of the FOIA request, and remember that as far as we know now, the records that were released really didn't say anything other than Mikey Sherrill's social security number, addresses of her, you know, her family, things that are not supposed to be released, certainly not a social security number at this point.

So the outrage is that their contention, this was a collusion with Trump, that the Trump administration put these out there to try to impact the Jersey race, to try to nudge it in Jack Ciattarelli's favor.

And did that happen?

I mean, mistakes do certainly get made in all sorts of ways.

I think it's great that there is going to be an investigation, and we just have to wait and see what that determines.

Yeah.

I think there was an old president who once said, "Mistakes were made."

A few people, not all Democrats, say Sheryl is the one who looks like the wronged party here.

No, Jelani?

Yeah, so the Emerson poll, you know, it showed things that were in a dead heat.

But what that poll also showed is that in many ways, Trump has a somewhat higher approval rating than Murphy.

Keeping in mind, this is only one poll.

And also keeping in mind that Trump also has a higher disapproval rating.

Both of them still have a very low approval rating.

But the reason why it's important is because Chittarelli is tying Cheryl to Murphy and Cheryl is tying Chittarelli to Trump.

But in the end, though, as everybody said here before, people care about the economy.

They care about the affordability.

They care about their property taxes and the electricity rates and things like that.

Yeah.

All right.

So let's go to the government shutdown.

The other thing that's happening this week.

Madison, you wrote about this this week.

I again, I feel like a broken record.

It really is about the economy and taxes.

That's what people care about.

I don't think a lot of New Jersey voters are necessarily saying, "Oh, I blame Jack Cittarelli for the shutdown."

And it's interesting because that's not necessarily Mikey Sherrill's message either.

I think it gives her more ammo when she talks about the things she's been talking about, tying Cittarelli to Trump and saying, "This is another thing that can hurt the economy," again, going back to prices and everything like that.

I do also think with the threat of funding being paused for the Gateway Tunnel project, that also could benefit Sheryl because that is something that people care about in New Jersey, this important infrastructure.

Chitrali said that he spoke with the Trump administration this week to confirm that shovels are still in the ground, but it's really not clear how long this is going to go on for.

So I think this is the Gateway Tunnel Project specifically is going to be something that the Sheryl campaign is going to be pointing to rather than the shutdown sort of more broadly because that's not exactly what what's top of mind for voters.

Right.

Gateway Project funding, Colleen, Cittarelli says, oh, everything's fine that the shovels are still going in and the hammers are doing the thing and all that.

But everybody knows, I mean, sure, you can't just close the spigot.

Some of this already been paid for for a couple of weeks or months.

But that money drying up is that's very possible.

And that is a big poke in the eye from the president.

No.

Yes, you're exactly right, David.

There is obviously still money sitting around.

We don't know how much people are still going to be getting paid.

It will depend on how much is in the bank right now, how much longer they can continue.

If the shutdown goes further and if Trump continues to not put more money into that, that's going to be a huge problem.

This is a project that stopped once already.

It could have been built by now.

It could have been finished by now.

But former Governor Christie stopped that when he came in.

So, you know, it's just delaying what we need to get these trains more regularly through tunnels.

You know, tunnels that are safe, tunnels that are not collapsing.

And it's a huge problem for the bi-state region.

Yeah.

Jelani Chidrelli, as we said, says that things are ongoing and the work continues.

Cheryl says she would sue the president, the White House, whoever, to get the funding restored, which really means absolutely nothing.

Which of these two owns the shutdown, do you think?

Well, to be clear, I mean, one person is in Congress, and so Chittarelli's going to have the advantage in terms of that.

But it's not really clear to me that a whole bunch of New Jerseyans are exactly celebrating, even on the conservative side, that they're going to get more of a lack of public transportation.

New Jerseyans have a very, very drama-filled and painful ordeal with public transportation in terms of funding and things of that nature.

And you also have the increased tolls coming from New York as well.

So it's not as if anyone's going to be celebrating that they have to, you know, clamor up and wait longer at Penn Station or any other show, so to speak.

>>> And nobody ever, when you ask somebody, is your rent too low, nobody ever says, yeah, my rent's too low.

Let me stick with you here.

Jelani, I don't know if you saw this AP story about Democrats expressing concern over securing the base, aka voters of color, specifically black and Latino voters.

We've been hearing that for a while now, no?

Yeah, I mean, that's been something that was said even in the presidential election, right?

And it also shows in the amount of people that showed up and showed out.

And it's also been one of the reasons why Mikey Sherrill picked Dale Caldwell.

It's been one of the reasons why she's also tried to make inroads with Mayor Raz Baraka in an attempt to shore up that coalition with the expectation that there may be fewer people that turn out and Jack Cittarelli hasn't exactly been non-active on that front.

He was been at the African-American Chamber of Commerce.

I used to see Jack Cittarelli at the African-American Chamber of Commerce a year and a half, two years ago.

And so you know the thing about Jack Cittarelli is that he's been kind of soft launching and running his campaign in certain circles of color for quite some time.

And he knows that he doesn't need to necessarily win over all of those demographics.

He just needs to siphon off enough of them for it to be very harmful to the Democrats.

Right.

Speaking of Caldwell has is there any indication that he has accomplished one of the tasks of a lieutenant governor pick is to shore up one aspect of the base.

Is there any sense that Caldwell has done that.

Has he galvanized black voters do you think.

You know when it comes to galvanizing black voters I don't think there's going to be anyone that looks at this situation and says you know Dale Caldwell is very good in terms of policy but in terms of galvanizing voters it would appear that the Sheryl campaign is really leaning on Roz Baraka for that and for good reason seeing as how Roz Baraka has a very galvanizing story to a lot of voters and he already has a very galvanized base.

He is the one who has access to voters so to speak.

Yeah.

Colleen you've been on this story too.

What do you see out there?

Well-founded concerns for the Democrats.

No.

Yeah, certainly.

You know, there's another group of people who are very important for black, galvanizing black voters, the black clergy.

And, you know, I spoke with Reverend Charles Boyer, and he said, while, you know, Chitarelli's move to MAGA and pro-Trump, certainly he thinks disqualifies him, but at least in his mind, not disqualifies him from office, but certainly it's not something that's, you know, that would get his support and he doesn't think it should get the support of, you know, most black voters.

But he also took issue with, for instance, Sheryl's vote in favor of the Charlie Kirk resolution, which she put out, you know, quite a statement over and did say that she doesn't support Charlie Kirk's views, but she, you know, she voted to, I guess, honor him.

That was part of the resolution.

That was very much finessed.

Right, right.

But but, you know, not in a not maybe effectively enough.

So, I mean, it certainly seems clear that that black voters who are really interested in that issue, right, who are strong on that issue will probably lean for Cheryl.

But will they be motivated enough to even just turn out?

Yeah.

The days, I think, of galvanizing the black vote towards one candidate are slowly slipping away.

It's definitely not a monolith.

And that's becoming more and more clear every year.

Meanwhile, the beat goes on.

If there is a Mikey Sherrill victory, her seat in Congress would become available.

Madison Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway is the first Republican to launch a bid in the 11th congressional district, where the dynamics of the race are contingent on the outcome of November's gubernatorial election.

Yeah.

Mm-hmm.

And if there is a Governor Sherrill, I'm sure there will be more Republicans who jump in too.

Yes.

Yeah.

The seat definitely leans Democratic, but it is easier to run when there's not an incumbent.

And if there is a special election, those generally have pretty low turnout.

So I'm sure more Republicans will throw their hat in the ring.

But we already have a lot of Democrats who are planning a run, mostly dependent on if Cheryl does win.

They're not interested in primarying her.

There is one lesser known candidate who let the door open to staying in the race if Sheryl does lose for the governorship and run for re-election.

But I think it's also important to note that if Sheryl does lose in November, she could choose not to run for Congress again.

To my knowledge, she hasn't said anything about this.

Politicians don't really like to talk about next steps beyond the current race they're running.

But I think regardless, if there isn't an incumbent in the seat, you could expect to see some more Republicans trying to flip it.

Yeah.

How about Democrats?

They're going to keep their powder dry to see what happens next month.

Yeah.

Definitely.

I think it's also important to note that in terms of the congressional map next year, people really have their eyes on the other battleground districts.

So I'm not sure how much national resources are going to be coming into Cheryl's seat.

All right, going to leave it there.

One month to go.

Madison, good job.

Jelani, Colleen, thank you both.

Good to see you all.

And that's Roundtable for this week.

I'm David Cruz.

On behalf of the entire crew here at Gateway Center, thanks for watching.

We'll see you next week.

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