It is the most closely watched race in New Jersey.

That 7th District matchup between Tom Kaine and Rebecca Bennett.

Well, tonight we hit the streets in the district to get voters' thoughts just weeks ahead of the midterms.

Plus, could Republicans be losing their grip on another Jersey district?

All of this with control of Congress on the line.

We'll explain.

And with so many of us feeling the pinch at the gas pump these days, what are the chances exactly of New Jersey temporarily suspending its 49 cents per gallon gas tax?

It would be great news for drivers, but our spotlight reporter, our state budget expert, explains why it's a very complicated move for the Garden State.

Plus, more than a week after that brutal nor'easter, we are on the ground along the Jersey Shore tonight as the cleanup continues and the state tries to get its hands around the final bill for damages.

Tonight, a look at beach erosion so extensive that for some, it's reminiscent of Superstorm Sandy 14 years ago.

We'll have the latest numbers spelling out the aftermath.

From Montclair State University, you're watching NJPBS News with Rob Nelson.

We begin tonight in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District.

That is where the political ground is beginning to shift a little bit.

Republican Tom Kaine Jr.

won re-election there in 2024.

After flipping the seat two years before.

Well, now, Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett is trying to flip it back, with control of the U.S.

House potentially hanging in the balance.

A leading nonpartisan forecaster, in fact, recently moved the race from a toss-up to lean Democrat.

And that's putting Kaine on the defensive in these final weeks.

But, of course, polls do not decide elections.

Voters do.

NJPBS Central Jersey and Statehouse contributor Asha McKenzie went there to the district to find out what is driving voters' decisions.

Affordability and jobs and getting out of this crazy, stupid war.

From the cost of living to immigration to the war in Iran, voters in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District have a lot on their minds before they head to the polls for the midterm elections.

We need help with housing.

We need help with food.

This congressional race drawing national attention, with the fate of who controls the House, in the hands of hotly contested races like this one.

Republican Tom Kaine Jr.

is defending his seat against Democrat Rebecca Bennett.

Sometimes I usually work the polls and it's a blessing to see the people really come out and vote because every vote counts.

Especially in the 7th District because it can be unpredictable as it has swung in favor of both Democrats and Republicans in recent elections.

Immigration, another issue voters are concerned about.

I'm in favor of it.

Let them in here.

Let them become citizens.

All these ICE people are just too much.

And in the final push to reach voters, the Cook Political Report, which is a nonpartisan group that tracks and rates competitive races, is calling Kaine the clear underdog, recently moving the race's rating from a toss-up to lean Democrat.

And voters getting one chance to see Kaine and Bennett face each other before Election Day in their first and only debate last month.

I've also kept my promise on affordability.

Everybody else talked about lowering taxes.

And I'm the only person who went down, kept my promise, and made sure we had real salt relief of up to $40,000 for every middle-income family in New Jersey.

That's real leadership.

I've been bipartisan every step of the way.

One, we have to take on the cost-of-living crisis that we are dealing with in this country.

Two, we have to tackle the corruption in Washington.

And three, we have to put country over party to solve the issues that we are all facing in this country.

Voters say what they ultimately want is someone who is going to make real change in Washington, understanding the weight of this election.

It's getting someone into Congress that will work in a better, more bipartisan way and change the direction of this country.

That's very important.

Aisha McKenzie and JPBS News.

All right, our thanks to Aisha McKenzie there.

Also tonight, another Republican congressman in the state may also be facing some tough political headwinds.

Democrats are now adding Republican Van Drew's second district race to their target list.

Now, Drew won that district by 17 points back in 2024.

So, if this race is in play, that would be really big news.

Our Scott Minshaw, in fact, was recently in South Jersey as Drew toured beach damage from last week's Nor'easter.

We'll have that report coming up a little later in the show.

A new poll is offering a pretty striking snapshot of how New Jersey residents view two of the most powerful political figures in the state.

Governor Mikey Sherrill's job approval rating is holding pretty much steady, with 44% approving of her performance and only 34% disapproving.

President Trump, on the other hand, he remains deeply unpopular in the state.

Just 24% of residents view him favorably, while 66% view him unfavorably.

And there's also an interesting contradiction, though.

More people still believe that Jersey is on the wrong track than headed in the right direction.

So, joining us now to break down all the numbers, Ashley Koenig, director of the Eagledon Center for Public Interest Polling at the one and only Rutgers University.

Ashley, thank you so much for being with us for your first appearance here on NJPBS with us.

So, great to see you.

Thank you so much, Rob.

Absolutely.

So, I get the top headlines.

That's what makes the news.

That 44% thumbs up for Governor Sherrill.

Talk a little bit about the dynamics of that number and where she is doing well and what areas.

It's been nine months of her in office, so we're still early in the game, so to speak.

But what has impressed that 44% so far?

Sure.

So, we're ending Governor Sherrill's first year in office, and these numbers are pretty much similar to what we saw back during the first 100 days last spring.

We have her at 44% approval, 39% favorability, statistically not significant of a difference from where we saw her in March.

And, you know, in the climate these days with hyper-partisanship and polarization, these are numbers that politicians have typically seen.

And, you know, quite frankly, these are decent numbers for politicians these days, given how divided both the state and the country are.

So, we still see that about one in five are unsure of her and don't take a side yet or an opinion.

When we look at just those who have taken sides, about 56% actually between those who approve and disapprove say that they approve of the job she's doing.

And that's so interesting that you say that 44%, which doesn't sound great to me, but in your world that it actually is not bad for a governor early in her administration.

That's very kind of telling, I think, of a bigger picture that 44% is kind of like these days at least par for the course.

Talk a little more about that.

Yeah, middle of the road, right?

And in New Jersey, it's infascinating.

We've seen very high highs but also very low lows when it comes to our governors throughout history.

We've been polling for 55 years now.

But we've really seen this middling off and kind of this halfway point, especially through the Murphy years and now through the Cheryl years.

And, you know, we've seen a challenging summer for Governor Cheryl.

So, I think seeing the steadiness in her numbers is saying something about her leadership and her governorship throughout the summer and what we saw regarding whether we're talking about pizza or whether we're talking about the voter rolls.

So, you know, I think it both indicates that obviously we're in a world of hyper-partisanship even within the Garden State.

But it also indicates that she is shoring up support and still has more positive than negative views.

So interesting.

Another thing that struck me in your poll, too, was that nearly 70% of the folks here in Jersey approve of the way that she handled kind of the Caldwell scandal.

Certainly that has made for a challenging couple of days for her and for him.

So, she did much better on that situation than she is overall, even though there were a lot of questions about her judgment.

The 18 days she was out of state, she was the one who picked him.

She really wasn't even confirming an investigation until the day that she called for his resignation.

But that didn't hurt her with the polls.

I think most people seem to be buying the narrative that he's accused of something wrong, she had zero tolerance, and now he's gone.

And nearly 70% say thumbs up to that.

Yeah, that's exactly it, right?

I mean, it's all about perception and optics, especially when we're talking about politics.

And the way in which we contextualize the question was talking about what had happened all of those days that transpired within the last week.

And actually, we were in the field as this was evolving and changed the question wording to signify when the former lieutenant governor actually resigned.

We don't see a difference pre-resignation and post-resignation.

But like you said, you know, surveys are blunt instruments.

So, what we're seeing is given that information, about two-thirds were supportive of Cheryl's moves and how she was handling everything.

We still see about one in five were unsure, possibly not knowing much about what was going on last week.

But, you know, these are, again, some positive ratings for her, especially in another difficult challenge that she's facing going into the fall.

Absolutely.

And listen, we had her on the show this week.

And I had about 30 minutes with her, which was great.

And I would say she probably was at her most animated during the interview when talking or voicing her criticism of President Trump.

She has really positioned herself as a foil to the president.

And listen, your poll numbers kind of maybe back up a reason partly why she's doing that.

Yeah, Republicans are still squarely in Trump's corner here in the Garden State.

But, of course, Trump is failing with independents and with Democrats and clearly with New Jerseyans overall.

He is not a popular political figure here.

He never really reached anything incredibly high when it came to his favorability or job approval.

I don't think the results are surprising in New Jersey.

I do think it points to a bigger picture, especially when we look at the midterms on what candidates within the Democratic Party are going to be running on.

And this is something that Cheryl banked on in 2025 and continues to show throughout her tenure.

It comes down to affordability and it comes down to an anti-Trump stance.

And listen, in terms of District 7, that's our hot race here in Jersey.

What is your 20-second hot take on that race?

Because if Bennett pulls that out, that's going to be considered an upset and make headlines nationally as well.

Oh, my goodness, yes.

That seat has huge implications both for the Garden State and, of course, for Congress and nationally.

I mean, it's difficult because we don't see a lot of polling happening in these kinds of congressional districts.

But we do know that race has moved from a cross-up to, I believe, it's likely D now.

That is definitely going to be a race to watch for a variety of reasons.

Both of these candidates have fascinating trajectories and backstories and certainly consequential to what's going to happen on election night.

And listen, what is your gut sense on that race?

In the sense that the polling is close, but, you know, polls can be wrong.

You know, what do you think will, what issue in that district do you think could move the needle one way or the other?

Is it the pro-Trump, anti-Trump dynamic that most in play?

You know, again, I would point to affordability.

I know it's been the buzzword for the past year and a half, but it really is that affordability message across the country right now, and especially in New Jersey.

I mean, in our five decades of polling, taxes and property taxes have perennially been the number one concern among New Jerseyans.

So I really think it's going to come down to those cost of living issues.

We'll have some affordability polling out soon as well.

Just talking about how difficult it is for New Jerseyans to afford things.

So I think that's going to be the theme of the election cycle, the theme of the night.

And it's really difficult to know at the end of the day who's going to turn out and vote in these geographically smaller elections.

But if we see persuasion and turnout based on that affordability message combined with some of that anti-Trump sentiment, given how the president has not performed according to polling on affordability in the economy, I think, you know, we could very well see an upset in that district.

Interesting times, as always, in politics.

Wow, what a ride it's going to be for the next few weeks.

Ashley Koenig with the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers.

The poll is available at eagletonpoll.ruckers.edu.

Ashley, really appreciate your time and your insight.

Come back often, because we know there's always something to talk about.

Appreciate it.

Thanks so much, Rob.

Well, drivers here in Jersey are getting a little relief at the pump after a record-setting September.

But here's the thing.

Regular gas is still averaging more than $4.30 a gallon.

That's up there.

Well, that has renewed calls, as you might imagine, to temporarily suspend the state's gas tax, which is $0.49 per gallon.

Not a small number there.

Supporters of the move say drivers need that relief.

But the tax also provides billions of dollars for the state's roads, bridges, and transportation systems.

So suspending it would come with a big cost.

Joining us now to help break down all of this is NJ Spotlight senior reporter John Reitmeyer, our budget-crunching guru at NJPBS News.

You know this as well, if not better than everybody else.

So gas tax holiday sounds nice.

You and I were talking before we got on air.

I used to live in Georgia for a while, and I felt every couple of months the governor there very easily signed a piece of paper.

No gas tax for a few weeks, a few months, whatever.

A little more complicated here in the Garden State, though.

It is, even though that Georgia tax rate is lower than New Jersey.

So we would feel a little bit more relief even than the motorists in Georgia are starting to enjoy right now.

And it is, and it's one of these issues where you have to look at it in the big picture.

And so, like you said, the gas tax here is about $0.50 a gallon.

It's a little bit more for diesel.

Diesel's a big concern right now, not just for truckers, but any of us who buy things that get shipped.

So when you think about the extra amount that we're paying for gas, if we were to slice that $0.50 off, it's great in the moment.

But New Jersey has something called the Transportation Trust Fund.

And revenue from the gas tax is constitutionally dedicated to that fund.

And that's the fund that's the primary main source of funding for all of our infrastructure improvements.

Roads, bridges, mass transit, everything across the state.

So as Al Gore would say, it's a lockbox.

It is, and it's there.

And New Jersey's a state that's famous for its fund raids.

We're just a little bit away from when money was taken from a fund that was set up specifically to retire bonded debt.

And it was used for that purpose.

But a more than billion dollar portion was taken from that fund just to plug holes in the annual budget.

So New Jersey has this long history of doing things just like that, where they take money, earmark for one thing, use it for something else.

The gas tax and the Transportation Trust Fund is sort of the poster child for doing it the right way.

So you go and you pay at the pump.

That money's constitutionally dedicated to improving the roads and bridges that you're driving on while you're filling up.

But the average person watching this may say, okay, I get it, right?

The gas tax goes to financing this particular thing, and it goes into that lockbox and can be used.

But my roads had this pothole for five years, and that highway stings, and the turnpike here, and the parkway there.

So give me my relief at the pump, because I don't see that money improving the roads I drive on.

Yeah, and that's a really fair point.

And there are those who would argue that we need more investment in our roads and bridges, and we need even more money coming in from the gas tax.

That's a separate argument.

For that person driving on their local road, there is actually a portion of the Transportation Trust Fund that pays for projects at the local level.

So we have hundreds of municipalities in New Jersey.

We have 21 county governments.

They get a slice of that money.

And so that part of the funding is maintaining our local system of roads and bridges.

And we're not for the state funding.

Well, what do those governments rely on heavily for revenue if they're not getting it from the state?

In most cases, it's property taxes.

And pause there, because the idea to anyone in New Jersey of property taxes getting any higher than they already are is, like, angering, because it's already so high, effectively the highest in the country.

So that's a big picture point about it sounds great, a little relief at the pump, but if it costs road improvements and could then possibly boost up property taxes, I would imagine then politically, fun discussion, but a non-starter for the folks in Trenton.

Yeah, and one other part of this is it draws federal matching funding as well.

And so the $2 billion or more that's raised annually in New Jersey helps leverage just as much money from the federal government.

And New Jersey is a state that doesn't always do well with federal programs and formulas.

And here's one instance where we do get a big amount of money because New Jersey ponies up a big amount of money for transportation spending that's, again, coming from this gas tax.

So it's all part of that calculus when you're a policymaker thinking about this.

So, in other words, I left my gas tax holiday days behind me in Georgia.

Seems a little more complicated here in Jersey for understandable reasons, but we'll see.

Second issue I want to get into is the Anchor Program.

Basically, for folks who don't know, for homeowners and renters who meet certain criteria, primarily income level, you can get a little bit of property tax relief by applying to that program to get some money back to help you with, again, our very high property taxes in Jersey.

And it's already started, so people need to be aware of some important dates coming up.

Yeah, absolutely.

In fact, earlier this last month, checks started to go out to some of the early applicants.

And so, some people are already receiving their Anchor benefits, but if you're not one of them, November 2nd is the date that is most important for you right now.

That is the deadline for applying.

And this can be real money.

For homeowners, a slice making up to $150,000 annually, they can get a $1,500 check or direct deposit from the state if they qualify.

And so, that's enough to get me to do the paperwork.

You can almost fill your car up for that.

And there's also a renter component.

And so, there was a time when the state wasn't recognizing that renters do carry a bit of the property tax burden in New Jersey.

There's some good data that suggests that landlords are happy to pass that charge right along to their tenants.

And so, there's a $450 rebate for renters in New Jersey who meet income limits, which is $150,000 or less.

And they have the same November 2nd deadline.

So, if you think you're out there and you qualified, it's going to be based off last year's data.

You can submit an application and try for this as well.

And if you're a senior, that $450 is actually $700.

And again, I think the income cap, if people are interested, is about $250,000.

That's on the homeowner side.

On the homeowner side, yes.

It's $150 on the renter side.

Gotcha.

So, yeah, a lot of numbers thrown around, but I would suggest that you look into it if you haven't applied yet.

Absolutely.

So, early November is the deadline for that.

And then later that same week or the next day, go vote in the midterms.

A lot to do in early November.

Real quick, 30 seconds, I'm going to let you go.

I think there's a big picture question about Anchor as well.

New Jersey can afford to give people money to put toward their high property tax bill, but yet we don't seem to do much to actually lower the tax itself.

In 30 seconds, why is that so tough?

Lower the thing as opposed to giving me more money to afford the high thing.

Well, there's always a pressure on the expenditure side.

And right now, a lot of the taxing entities are facing a lot of pressure on the employee health care side.

And so, the curve is really being bent a lot by that specific line item.

Health care is at the root of a lot of fundamental financial questions, locally and federally for that matter.

Budget guru, you did not disappoint.

Thank you so much for being here.

We appreciate that.

That really good insight.

And again, gas is what it is for the time being.

We've learned that.

New Jersey spotlight, excuse me, senior reporter John Reitmeyer.

Thanks, buddy.

Appreciate it.

You're welcome.

Happy to be with you.

Well, a week after that powerful nor'easter battered the Jersey Shore, state and federal teams are still measuring the extensive damage left behind.

State numbers just released, in fact, show that 10 beaches sustained major erosion.

18 saw moderate erosion and 53 more beaches suffered minor erosion.

Numbers at all underscore the widespread impact of the storm, with some comparing the most serious erosion to the damage from Superstorm Sandy back in 2012.

In Holgate, portions of the beach there and dunes that protect nearby homes, they were all stripped away, leaving residents wondering what happens if another storm arrives before that protection can get restored.

NJPBS South Jersey reporter Scott Minshaw has the story.

A week ago, this beach in Atlantic City gradually sloped towards the ocean.

Now, this wall is what remains.

Officials say strong waves and storm surge dragged away most of this beach and part of the dune.

People who live along the Jersey Coast say they're not only concerned about what this storm took away, they're worried about if they'll have enough protection when the next storm hits.

In just one weekend, the landscape changed dramatically along the Jersey Coast.

The nor'easter carved away portions of the beach and dunes, the natural buffer between the ocean and the homes behind them.

It was scary.

We lost power for about 15 hours.

In parts of Holgate, beach barrier that had stretched about 150 feet was reduced to roughly 50.

Donna Edges says about half of the dune behind her family's home disappeared.

I was shocked.

There was a lot of erosion.

I mean, it was almost like a 90-degree angle going down where we had a gradual slope to get onto the beach.

The sand here is more than scenery.

Beaches and dunes help absorb the force of waves and storm surge before the water reaches homes and roads.

A report from the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection lists 10 locations as major damage level.

From north to south, they are Cliffwood Beach, Seabright, Bayhead, Beach Haven, two areas in Long Beach Township, Brigantine, Atlantic City, Stone Harbor, and North Wildwood.

Stockton University Coastal Management professor Sha Khan says the erosion from this nor'easter was some of the worst New Jersey has experienced since Superstorm Sandy.

Climate change is making more severe storms more frequently.

That means we are experiencing more wave energy hitting the coast.

And together with that, we are seeing sea level rise.

That means that those higher waves are coming closer to the land, eroding the beaches and eroding the dunes.

Northeasters are typically strongest from September all the way to April.

And edges says she is concerned about the months ahead.

If it wasn't for the dunes, none of us, you know, we would all have a problem with the storm surge when that happens.

The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers are now surveying the coastline.

Those assessments will help determine where the damage is most severe, what repairs are needed, and which communities may qualify for assistance.

Each year, New Jersey spends millions on beach replenishment, pumping sand back onto eroded beaches.

Khan says that approach can help, but the state also needs to learn from each storm and adapt as conditions change.

So that approach can be improved toward adaptive management.

So it's not only replenishing the beaches, but to keep that flexibility in that management.

The longer term debate is also playing out in Congress.

Republican Congressman Jeff Van Drew, who represents much of the South Jersey coast and is seeking reelection next month, toured the damage last week with federal officials.

Van Drew points to the Water Resources Development Act, which has passed the House but still must clear the Senate.

The bill would expand work on erosion hotspots and authorize studies of other approaches to protect the shore.

There are ways that are good to deal with this, not only with beach replenishment, not only with declaring the emergency, but also by doing other work and making sure that we have permanent structure in the forms that I talked about.

It could be a seawall, it could be a groin, it could be a jetty, it could be a lot of different things.

We need to explore that more, we need to learn more, we need to obey the science here and do what's right.

But the legislation does not provide immediate recovery money for damage from this storm.

Van Drew says he will push for federal disaster assistance, but the state has not formally requested those dollars just yet.

The White House denied the state's request for recovery money after a February blizzard, a move blasted by the governor as politically motivated.

Finding money is always hard.

So I'm a simple person, man.

I make one promise.

We will work as hard as we can and we will do whatever is needed to do to make this happen.

How much and where and when we can't lock in yet.

We're just beginning the evaluation process.

For now, federal officials say they're still trying to determine just how much beach and dune was lost and which areas need attention first.

Until repairs can begin, these dunes and what remains of them is the primary protection as the winter storm season approaches.

Reporting in Atlantic City, Scott Mitchell for New Jersey PBS News.

And our thanks to Scott Minshaw for that report.

And of course, we will keep a very close eye on that story, especially if Jersey makes another bid for recovery funding from the feds.

So stay tuned for that.

And for more news, you can head to NJPBS.org.

That's going to do it for us tonight.

As always, thanks so much for watching NJPBS News.

We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Have a good night, Jersey.

Thank you.