>> From NJ PBS studios, this is NJ Spotlight News with Briana Vannozzi.

>> Hello, and thanks for joining us tonight.

I'm Brianna Vannozzi.

Coming up, Republicans and Democrats are battling it out in several key midterm races, but are the parties finding common ground on at least some issues?

Plus, a look at some of our favorite stories and interviews over the years.

We'll revisit our conversation with an inspiring New Jersey grandmother, not letting age stand in the way of competing in Ironman competitions.

But first, the Fed hikes interest rates for the first time in three years.

What does it mean for your bottom line here in New Jersey?

We'll break it down.

That's next.

Funding for NJ Spotlight News provided by RWJBarnabas Health.

Learn more at RWJBH.org.

Well, for the first time in three years, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, lifting its benchmark rate by a quarter point as it tries to pull inflation.

The move could mean higher borrowing costs for New Jersey families, from everything from credit cards to car loans.

Here to make sense of what it all means for you is Farouk Langdana.

He's the Rutgers Executive MBA Director and Dean's Professor of Business.

Professor Langdana, thanks so much for coming back on the show.

You know, the last time the Fed made a change to the interest rate was back in December where they cut the benchmark by 25 basis points.

What do we know about why this time they decided to raise it?

You know, and this is such a great question and thank you for having me on.

And actually, this is the topic of the class this afternoon in the Executive MBA program.

So the timing is perfect in many ways.

So just really quickly, you know, there are three different kinds of inflation.

There is one called demand pull, where there's too much demand, there's too much exuberance, confidence is high, and the economy is basically growing too fast.

OK, so it's called an overheated economy.

That's the only inflation that the Fed can try and calm down.

It's called doing a soft landing.

So this is a very important point.

I'm going to talk about three kinds of inflations.

This is the only one that the Fed can tap the brakes, raise interest rates, make it harder to borrow, make capital investment go down, housing go down, and slow the economy.

Now, this situation-- exuberance, economy growing too fast, overheating-- clearly not happening this time.

This is not our case.

The other kind of inflation is called cost-push inflation, caused by shortage.

This is known as the bad kind of inflation.

The first one was probably the good kind.

This one is caused by oil shocks.

Welcome to the Iran drama, the Gulf of Hormuz.

Food shocks, since Putin's gone into Ukraine and now we have pest agricultural products coming out of China being restricted and so on and so forth.

So food shocks, oil shocks, cost push inflation caused by shortage.

The Fed can't do anything about that inflation.

I repeat, the Fed cannot fix that inflation by raising interest rates.

The only way we can fix that kind of inflation, the bad kind, is by having a petroleum reserve or increasing petroleum oil output or food output.

So, can't do anything about that.

The third kind of inflation has to do with our budget deficits.

Usually when our budget deficits are above 5% of our GDP, it means that we are heading into the non-sustainability range.

What that means in plain English is the orange light starts flashing, the amber light.

It means that you can't keep borrowing anymore.

People are running to Uncle Sam less and less.

Let me jump in here to ask you, if the goal of the Fed is essentially to slow consumer and business spending, what does this rate hike mean for consumers?

What does it mean for me and you?

See, the thing is, the goal of the Fed is inflation right now.

So if that's the goal, then they are barking up the wrong tree.

Raising rates is not going to dampen inflation because this inflation is caused by oil shocks, food shocks, and by our deficits being so big that we are printing money to fund it.

And so we are prescribing antibiotics for a patient that's got a viral infection.

And what happens now with this rate increase is that, the other point I want to make real quickly is, the Fed can only change short-term overnight interest rates.

And those aren't the important ones in the economy.

It's the long-term rates, which are over 7%.

And the Fed has no control over those nasty rates.

Those are the important rates.

And here at Rutgers Business School, we make a big deal explaining short-term rates, which the Fed controls overnight, and long-term rates, which they have not much control, in fact, very little control over.

Those are huge differences.

It's like plastic versus pizza.

You can't confuse the two.

And so, you know, we're all shaking our heads as to why they're doing this.

They're going to make a stressful situation even worse for us all.

I'm going to ask you to bridge slightly into politics, given the fact that affordability is so top of mind right now.

You know, we're heading into a major midterm election, and that is across the board, across both parties, the number one, you know, kitchen table issue for folks.

You know, from your vantage point, would you expect to see the Fed act again before we hit election day?

You know, at this point, I have just ceased to guess what the Fed's going to do, because this is such an irrational move.

And it's unfortunate because, you know, this was his opening gambit for the new Fed chair for Walsh.

And this is a misstep.

Jay Powell did great.

I miss the guy.

This is basically prescribing antibiotics to a patient who's got a viral infection.

And this is going to make the situation worse.

It's going to bring confidence down consumer confidence down investor confidence down.

And it's not it's not even going to fix the right kind of inflator.

The inflation that needs to be fixed is not going to be affected by this.

What we need to do is fix the deficit.

Yeah, we saw the Dow fall more than 600 points.

Considering that, considering the impact on the market, and of course the market, not a predictor of the economy, you know, two very separate, but considering the impact on the market, what does that tell you about this decision?

And I think we've kind of heard some of that.

This is a lose-lose proposition here.

And, you know, I'm going to actually surprise myself by saying, "War should have actually listened to Trump.

President Trump was actually right this time.

They should have at least left the interest rates alone instead of raising them."

It's all counter-productive.

It was all counter-productive and everyone's shaking their heads.

And what happens is people are getting out of the stock market and sitting in cash.

If you have bundles of money lying around well long term rates are going to stay high.

Yes.

So maybe that's good news for savers then.

Yes.

You've got bundles of cash lying around pocket and CDs.

So savers will benefit a nice safe investment.

But in terms of inflation now it's not going to fix anything.

It's the wrong kind.

The real problem is long term rates and long term rates are high because the deficit is non sustainable and we are printing money and bonds look forward.

Bonds look into the future and they know that you keep printing money.

Inflation is going to come down the road.

Bonds know best.

You know so very quickly in the time we have left mortgage rates typically follow long term treasury yields.

Should we expect any impact there.

Potential homebuyers looking to secure a mortgage right now.

No they're they're going down.

It's the 10 year the 10 year mortgages.

The 10 year treasury is basically the 30 year mortgage.

So they go hand in hand very closely.

And the 10 years again crossed it.

It's a benchmark.

And not just that.

Those who are stuck with adjustable rate mortgages they are going to get hammered.

And you could refinancing is not going to be possible in the near term because I don't see rates going down until we fix the deficit.

And what we need is a bipartisan approach.

First educate the public and let the public know we're going to have to do cuts across the board like we did with Graham Redmond Hollins right after the Reagan era.

Across the board cuts.

Nobody is spared.

We are all in this together.

We're going to have to face the pain.

Bring our deficit close back down to 5 percent.

It's six point five percent of GDP now.

And only then will the long term interest rates start coming down.

>>> Thank you.

Farouk Langana is a Dean's Professor of Business for the Rutgers Executive MBA Director Program.

Thank you so much.

Always great to get your insight.

We really appreciate it.

>>> Thank you.

Thank you so much.

>>> Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon don't agree on much, but this week they shared a stage to raise concerns about the rapid development of artificial intelligence.

It's one example of political lines beginning to blur, even as divisions deepen within both parties over ideology, the war in Iran, and what voters want.

So what do these unlikely alliances tell us about where the parties are headed?

Joanna Gagis asked Micah Rasmussen that question, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University.

Micah, great to see you.

We have less than two months to go until the primary elections.

We've got a whole lot to look at on both sides of the aisle.

I want to start with Republicans, who for the first time ever held a midterm convention.

A couple of weeks ago, I want to just ask you, do you think that this is still solidly the party of Trump?

For now it is.

In fact, I think that that's really one advantage that the Republicans have in dealing with their ideological element is that he imposes party discipline on his side.

He tells MAGA what he expects, they fall in line.

That is changing.

As you said, there were races in which his endorsement meant less than it has meant in the past, but he still held considerable sway over every congressional endorsement he made.

This is still very much the MAGA party.

It may have a shelf life.

It may have a sell-by date.

It may be further along in its maturity than the Democrats are with their ideology, ideological element.

But it's still very much that.

More broadly, when we look outside of the Republican Party, we heard some of the messaging that came out of that convention from the president promising $5,000 to every adult American saying, "If you don't vote for me, you'll go to hell."

Those are just some of the messages.

How do you think the Trump message is resonating across?

I mean, we're looking at New Jersey, but even across the nation, especially as we're in the middle of this war with Iran and gas prices are high and the economy is still a struggle for so many.

How is that messaging landing as you see it?

You always have to think, I think, about the electorate in different pieces.

So it is not going well with Democrats.

It is not going well with independent voters, unaffiliated voters who are breaking strongly against him from every piece of evidence we see.

This convention was really designed to rile up his base.

It was designed to rile up MAGA.

The problem for him is that even in that group, which by definition is a smaller subset than the entire electorate, even in that group, there are all these presidential-only voters, voters who came out and supported him in 2024, but don't do that when he's not on the ballot.

He has struggled at midterm before.

And by all accounts, that's what's happening again this time.

He's trying to do everything he can think of, possibly, to excite his base.

- And he did say, "Pretend I'm on the ballot," which has worked, as you said, in the past.

I don't know if that will work in terms of getting out the vote in the same way.

Meanwhile, we have Representative Thomas Massey from Kentucky, who just introduced articles of impeachment against Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth.

And then we have a House that's no longer in session so that that vote can't happen.

Give me your take on that.

Yeah, I mean, I think that everybody recognizes that we are now in a season where nothing productive is going to get done at Congress from this point forward.

The problem rhetorically for the fact that they're not in season, not in session at this point is that, you know, you have members today.

There is a Republican member in Florida who is saying, I, right directly in the camera, have differences with you, President Trump, you know, right directly.

The problem, of course, is that she didn't say this until after Congress left town.

So I think that just every single thing that they're trying at this point, they're going to struggle with.

This is a midterm, classic midterm behavior in which the party, the voters are going to hold the parties accountable and going to vote accordingly.

And this is just the way it's going to go.

You're not going to do a lot to buck that.

The one big asset that Republicans have at their backs at this point, and it's considerable, is fundraising.

They are well funded across the board.

There is an influx of MAGA money coming into Tom Kane's district, that race, over $3 million.

So they're hoping that that can be the backstop for them that can withstand this blue tsunami that they see coming with this midterm accountability.

Okay.

When we look at the blue side and we look at Democrats, there's been kind of a race across the country pitting the most progressive candidates against moderate candidates.

Where do you see in the end Democrats come out really at the end of the midterms?

Yeah, you know, so clearly one advantage they have is that they want to win.

They want some balance brought back to government.

They want some say.

They've been locked out of the federal government power structure for the last two years.

They want that.

They're hungry for it.

So what they've been able to do is they've been able to confine their fights largely to the primaries.

Clearly some DSA members have won.

Many have lost.

There's a legacy of now these are the nominees and you've got to get behind them.

The party seems to be doing that.

They're not bailing on anybody.

Right.

They're behind everybody.

They clearly are doing that because they want to win.

That's what a party always has to do with ideological element.

Fight like hell in the primary, and then leave that behind when it's time to get to the general election.

- Well, we'll see if that happens.

I just have to point out, we're at this weird phenomenon where some of the most extremes on either side are ending up coming together.

Like, in what world do we have Senator Bernie Sanders on a stage with Steve Bannon sharing, you know, criticism of AI?

Yeah, yeah.

It's wild.

I ask in every spring debate, every primary debate, I ask every candidate that I was a part of a debate, "Are you pulling your punches on AI because of all the flood of AI money that is entering the races and you don't want that mobilized against you.

Of course, they all denied that, Republicans and Democrats alike.

That's not what's going on.

But there is a much more cautious approach among the mainstream elements of the party.

And on the more ideological side, you're absolutely right.

We come to this point where the conservatives and the liberals touch.

And that happens sometimes.

I've seen it happen in the New Jersey legislature over the years.

There were times when the mountain men were agreeing with with Fred Ocario.

There's an old, old name for you.

But that does happen.

And we just don't often get a chance to see it in action.

Yeah.

And on the same token, you know, the war in Iran has led people like Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson to kind of sound a lot like some of the more progressive voters and legislators, lawmakers opposed to the war.

I want to just bring it back home, though, because here in District 7, you mentioned there's a lot of Republican money coming in.

But it's a district that is now, by some polls, leaning left.

We now have the Fireman's Association supporting Democratic candidate Rebecca Bennett.

Does the money in the end, in your mind, make a difference and get Congressman Kaine over the finish line, or does this district swing back blue?

So clearly that's the great advantage that Kaine has, is as an incumbent, he's got the ability to raise money and he has a tremendous head start.

By the time Rebecca Bennett won her primary, he had three million dollars in the bank.

He's got almost a limitless ability to bring more money as he needs it.

Trump and MAGA want to save him and they're putting that infusion of cash in, clearly.

But the question really is, is that enough to withstand this blue wave, this blue wave environment?

Trump is extremely unpopular.

We saw that in the poll this week as well.

The other thing we saw in the poll, besides just the five point difference, is there is a pretty substantial difference in the favorability between Kaine and Bennett.

And so as you look toward election day, the time we have left, 45 days, to win over the remaining undecided voters, unaffiliated voters, one candidate more than the other may be better position to win them over because she's better liked at this point than the other candidates.

So I think Tom Kane is going to struggle there.

He's had a tough year.

You can have a tough year, but you may not be able to have it in the same year that there's a wave here.

Yeah.

And of course, I have to point out that he recently said that he does the most local press engagements of any member of Congress.

Those of us in the press welcome him onto our show to Mike Rasmussen, we have to leave it there.

Director of the Revovich Institute for Politics, New Jersey Politics at Rider University.

Thanks, Micah.

Thank you.

Tonight, we're taking a look back at one of our favorite stories of the last year.

80-year-old Natalie Grabo, a grandmother from Morris County who also happens to be a world record holder.

She made history at the 2025 Ironman World Championship in Hawaii, becoming one of the oldest women ever to compete in the grueling race, which by the way is a 2.4 mile swim, 112 miles by bike and a full marathon.

But crossing the finish line did not come without drama.

I spoke with Natalie last year about what it took to get through one of the toughest endurance events in the world.

Take a listen.

Welcome.

Thanks so much for coming on.

And congratulations to you.

First of all I think what stood out to me beyond the fact that you did this one is that this was your 11th Ironman championship.

What made it feel different this time around.

I think it felt a little different because of the time pressure.

Being a little bit older, I had to be careful that I made all the cutoffs.

You have to finish the swim and finish midway on the bike and the whole bike and of course midway on the run and the run in a certain time or else you have to stop.

So being older, I had to be careful with my timing.

Can you take us back to that moment at the finish line?

What was going through your mind and when you got back up, what happened there at the finish line?

Well, it was very exciting.

I was almost finished.

They had a really fun group of young women with pom poms and everything that I ran through.

And then I just looked ahead.

I thought I was finished.

And I guess there was a little wrinkle in the carpeting and I didn't pick my foot up, obviously.

So I found myself on the ground.

It was quite startling.

So I quickly got up and pretended it didn't happen and went on.

So and that's a picture of Cherie Gruenfeld who had previously held the oldest woman to finish record at 78.

Yeah, I mean, you quite literally shook yourself off when you stood up and then you kept going, but you kept going with a smile on your face.

What did that feel like?

Well, I was just, it was so funny that it happened in a way.

You know, I hadn't fallen the whole time out there, 16 hours and 45 minutes.

But, you know, to fall right at that point was a little bit funny.

So, yeah, it certainly has been shown a lot.

I'm sure it probably feels surreal to watch it back multiple times.

You know, a lot of people, myself included, can't imagine doing this at any age.

What is the training look like?

How do you build yourself up and prepare for an endurance event of this magnitude?

Because a lot of folks train for it, don't compete, don't complete it and end up not doing it.

Right.

Well, I think it's been, it's a day to day process.

So it's not just that I started to train for this particular race.

I've been a triathlete for 21 years.

So it's daily training, which I love.

That's the part I love the most, even more than the races.

So it's just increasing the time that you're training and the intensity a little bit before the longer race.

But I had three 70.3 races this season, which is the half Ironman distance.

And I did very well and had good times in all three of them.

So that gave me the confidence that I would have a good race.

I also, you have to qualify for the World Championship, and I had qualified last September in Maryland, and my time there was under 16 hours.

So I felt good about it, and I had a flat tire, and the run course was flooded with water in some parts.

So I felt that I had a good chance to do it.

- I would say so.

- But I read though, Natalie, that you didn't learn to swim until you were 59.

Is that true?

Is that true?

- That's true.

And it's still not my strength.

I still struggle.

- I would say over two miles in the ocean is a strength, but I would beg to differ.

- Yeah, well, it's not my fastest.

My strength is the bike really, but I get through the swim okay.

I'm not afraid of it.

It's just it's a little bit of a contact sport to swim so that it's not like swimming at a pool or at the Y when you have your own lane.

There's people that inadvertently kind of knock you in the head and knock your goggles off which happened to me and the water was a little rough this year.

So you kind of drank some of it along the way.

I would I would imagine.

Yeah.

Obviously Natalie your story has touched a lot of people.

It's inspired a lot of people.

You know not just in your hometown and here in New Jersey but really worldwide.

What drives you to keep competing and what do you want folks to take away from the fact that you've done this now 11 11 times and at 80 years old.

Well, there's two things.

What drives me is I love it.

I love the training.

I love doing something every day.

I get very excited about having a hard bike workout or or run or swim to do.

So that's just part of my life.

And I'll do that forever.

I hope.

And I and I hope it my story just shows that you can that it's important to move, to do, you know, find something that you really like that you'll go back to.

It could be anything.

It could be just fast walking or or a water aerobics class or pickleball or whatever.

But it's just important to move.

It helps you feel strong.

It helps your mental strength and attitude.

So I think that's what I hope people will do.

Any chance we're going to see you in another Ironman before we let you go?

Oh yeah.

Natalie Grabo, thank you so much for your time.

We really appreciate it and congratulations again.

Thank you so much.

That's gonna do it for us tonight, but before we let you go, a quick programming note.

Tomorrow you can catch the final ever episode of Reporters Roundtable.

Host Joanna Gagis along with myself, Colleen O'Day, and Lilo Stainton reflect on the long running series, almost 40 years, and its impact on reporters and politics here in the state.

Catch Reporters Roundtable streaming Friday at 1 p.m.

on our NJ Spotlight News YouTube channel and airing on NJ PBS tomorrow at 6.30 p.m.

and Saturday at 6.00.

I'm Briana Vannozzi for the entire team at NJ Spotlight News.

Thanks for being with us.

We'll see you tomorrow.

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