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♪ >>> HI, EVERYBODY.

WELCOME TO "REPORTERS ROUNDTABLE."

I'M DAVID CRUZ.

WE'RE JOINED BY A TALENTED CAST OF NEWS HOUNDS FROM AROUND THE STATE.

CARLY CITRIN IS THE REPORTER FOR "POLITICO" NJ.

MIKE COVERS THE ASSOCIATED PRESS AND MICHAEL HYMANS IS ALSO WITH US.

WE BEGIN WITH OUR GUEST, THE DIRECTOR OF THE MONMOUTH INSTITUTE.

GOOD TO SEE YOU, PATRICK.

>> GOOD TO BE WITH YOU, DAVID.

>> SO YOU HIT THE LAST TWO GOVERNORS RACES RIGHT ON THE NOSE IN 2017 AND 2013.

SO IF THIS LATEST POLL IS ANY INDICATION, THE RACE IS OVER, IS IT?

>> IT'S -- IT WILL BE PRETTY HARD FOR JACK TO MAKE UP THE DIFFERENCE EVEN IF THERE IS ERROR IN THIS PARTICULAR POLL THAT, YOU KNOW, THE KEY HERE IS THAT THE DEMOCRAT PHIL MURPHY IS UNDERPERFORMING WHERE DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW CYCLES.

PARTICULARLY DURING THE TRUMP ERA.

WE USUALLY SEE THEM WIN BY 14 POINTS.

WE HAVE IT AT 11 POINTS IN OUR TYPICAL LIKELY VOTER MODEL.

IT CAN GO TO EIGHT POINTS IN THE MODELS THAT WE RAN.

SO THAT IS NOWHERE NEAR WHERE, YOU KNOW, A DEMOCRAT SHOULD BE.

THAT'S WHY THE CAMPAIGN IS CHOMPING AT THE BIT.

THIS IS A NATIONAL ISSUE WITH DEMOCRATS.

THEY HAVE BEEN UNHAPPY WITH THE LACK OF PROGRESS IN WASHINGTON ON THE BIG BILLS THAT THEY WANT DONE.

SO THE BASE IS NOT THAT ENTHUSIASTIC.

AND I THINK HE WAS HOPING THAT HE WOULD BE ABLE TO, YOU KNOW, TAKE THAT AND BUILD ON THAT.

BUT THE DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE IN NEW JERSEY IS JUST WAY, WAY TOO BIG.

THIS IS NOT VIRGINIA.

WE'RE SEEING A TIGHT RACE THERE.

EVEN IF YOU KNOCK HALF OF THE NATURAL DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE OFF OF WHERE PHIL MURPHY COULD BE, HE STILL IN A DECENT POSITION FOR RE-ELECTION.

>> AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS, MURPHY LEADS 50-39.

THAT'S WITHIN A PERCENTAGE POINT OR TWO OF YOUR PREVIOUS TWO POLLS, SEPTEMBER AND AUGUST.

MURPHY'S LEAD AMONG BLACKS AND LATINOS REMAINS LARGE.

GETTING MORE POINTS FOR THE HANDLING OF THE ECONOMY AND TAXES.

DID YOU JUST SLIP IN LAST MONTH'S POLL FOR THIS ONE?

NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE, RIGHT?

>> YEAH, NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE.

WE DID START OUT WITH A 16 POINT ADVANTAGE IN AUGUST.

WENT DOWN TO 13 POINTS THEN 11 POINTS IN OUR POLL.

AND THAT'S TRUE IN OUR LIKELY VOTER MODEL AS WELL.

THE KEY THAT HAS SHIFTED IS COVID-19 WHICH WAS THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN AUGUST.

IT IS NOT THE BIGGEST ISSUE TODAY.

I THINK THE DELTA VARIANT WAYNED A LITTLE BIT IN PEOPLE'S MINDS.

I DON'T THINK THEY HIT HARD ABOUT THE LEADERSHIP DURING THE EARLY DAYS OF COVID-19 WHICH IS WHY THE NUMBERS WERE SO HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

JACK HAS BEEN ABLE TO HAMMER AWAY AT TAXES AND PEELED OFF A LITTLE BIT OF THAT SUPPORT CHANGING PEOPLE'S ATTENTION AWAY FROM COVID AND TOWARDS TAXES.

BUT, AGAIN, THE PROBLEM IS WE'RE IN NEW JERSEY.

AND THAT'S -- THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH ROOM THERE FOR HIM.

I MEAN, HE HAS TO MAKE UP A LOT MORE, YOU KNOW, RUNWAY THAN REALLY WHAT HE HAS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS HERE.

>> REPUBLICANS HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT A SURGE IN GOP VOTES.

DOES THE POLL INDICATE THAT ANYWHERE?

>> THERE CERTAINLY IS MORE M MOTIVATION.

I'M NOT SURE THAT IS A SURGE IN REPUBLICAN VOTE AS MUCH AS IT IS A DISAPPOINTING DEMOCRATIC BASE OR DISAPPOINTED DEMOCRATIC BASE, I SHOULD SAY.

THE KEY HERE, WE'RE GOING TO LEARN THIS, YOU KNOW, OUR POLL -- THE POLLS AND THE POLLING INDUSTRY WERE WRONG IN 2016 AND 2020.

BUT NOT IN OTHER YEARS.

AND SO THE QUESTION IS, IS IN A TRUMP SURGE THAT TRUMP ENTHUSIASM THAT WAS THERE FOR DONALD TRUMP, DOES IT COME OUT WHEN HE'S NOT ON THE BALLOT?

AND I THINK THIS IS GOING TO BE OUR FIRST REAL TEST OF THAT TO SEE IF THE REPUBLICANS ARE ACTUALLY RIGHT THAT THEY CAN TRANSFER THAT KIND OF ENTHUSIASM ON TO A NONTRUMP CANDIDATE.

>> CHRIS RUSSELL IS -- WORKS WITH THE CAMPAIGN.

HE IS YOUR ARCH NEMESIS THIS POLLING SEASON, IT SEEMS.

HE SAID YOU'RE GOING TO SWING AND MISS ON THIS POLL.

HE SAID YOU'RE ONLY COUNTING REGISTER THE VOTERS.

AND THAT YOU'RE UNDERCOUNTING REPUBLICAN TURNOUT.

IS HE WRONG ABOUT EITHER OF THOSE?

>> HE'S WRONG ABOUT THE FIRST PART.

YOU HAVE TO START WITH REGISTERED VOTERS AS YOUR BASE.

WE HAVE LIKELY VOTER MODELS IN THERE.

WE ALWAYS HAVE HAD THOSE IN THERE.

BUT, YOU KNOW, OUR JOB IS NOT TO HELP A CAMPAIGN.

OUR JOB IS TO INFORM THE PUBLIC.

ONE THING THAT WE LEARNED IN PARTICULARLY IN THE 2020 RACE IS THAT THERE IS A -- THAT THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH UNDERSTANDING REGISTERED VOTERS DURING ELECTIONS AND OUR JOB IS TO EDUCATE THOSE PARTICULARLY YOU IN THE MEDIA, ABOUT WHAT THE DIFFERENCE IS BETWEEN REGISTERED VOTERS AND LIKELY VOTERS.

WE CAN ONLY DO IT IF WE GIVE YOU BOTH NUMBERS.

MY JOB IS TO SHOW ALL MY WORK.

WHICH IS NOT THE JOB OF A CAMPAIGN POLLSTER.

SO I HAVE A DIFFERENT, YOU KNOW, MISSION, THAT I HAVE TO FOLLOW.

AND A STANDARD OF TRANSPARENCY THAT I HAVE TO FOLLOW THAT THEY DON'T.

BUT HE'S WRONG IN THAT FIRST PART.

WE -- WE'RE GIVING YOU THE LIKELY VOTER NUMBERS AS BEST THAT WE CAN ESTIMATE THEM.

IN TERMS OF WHAT THE TURNOUT IS GOING TO BE.

EVERYBODY HAS DIFFERENT TURNOUTS.

WE HAVE MODELS THAT CAN SHOW THE RACE IS EIGHT POINTS IF THERE IS A HIGH REPUBLICAN TURNOUT.

BUT NOT, NOWHERE NEAR THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THAT HE CLAIMS THAT WE DON'T SEE ANY EVIDENCE FOR THAT HE CLAUMZIMS THEY HAVE INTERNALLY.

SINGLE DIGITS IS POSSIBLE.

WE DON'T SEE ANYTHING NEAR WHERE HE IS SAYING WHERE THIS IS A NECK AND NECK RACE.

>> LET ME GET A COUPLE PANEL QUESTIONS IN HERE.

MICHAEL SIMON, YOU HAD A QUESTION?

>> SURE.

PATRICK, I WANT TO FAST FORWARD TO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SO WHAT WILL YOU BE LOOKING FOR?

WHAT SHOULD PEOPLE LOOK FOR TO SEE IF THE ELECTION IS PLAYING OUT THE WAY THE POLLS SUGGEST OR MAYBE IT'S GOING TO BE A BIT OF A SURPRISE?

>> YEAH.

I MEAN IT'S DIFFICULT TO TELL.

WE HAVE THE EARLY VOTING NOW WHICH, YOU KNOW, LOOKS LIKE PEOPLE ARE NOT TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WHICH IS ACTUALLY NO SURPRISE.

WE KIND OF EXPECTED THAT.

OUR POLLING WAS SUGGESTING THAT IT WAS GOING TO BE THAT HUGE.

YOU KNOW, THE EARLY VOTING NUMBERS ARE -- AND VOTE BY MAIL ARE GOING TO BE HEAVILY DEMOCRATIC.

SO A LOT OF IT DEPENDS ON HOW THE H THE COUNTIES ARE REPORTING ELECTION VOTE FIRST?

BECAUSE JACK WILL PROBABLY WIN THE ELECTION DAY VOTE.

THE QUESTION IS BY HOW MUCH?

AND THEN, YOU KNOW, PHIL MURPHY'S EARLY VOTE WILL BE -- WILL BE HUGE.

AND SO THE QUESTION THAT WE NEED TO START ASKING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NUMBERS COME IN IS WHERE ARE THEY COMING FROM?

ARE THEY COMING FROM THE EARLY VOTE OR ELECTION DATE VOTE?

>> MIKE, YOU WANT TO JUMP IN WITH A QUESTION?

>> YEAH.

SURE.

THANKS, DAVID.

PATRICK, I WAS CURIOUS IF YOU COULD TALK THROUGH A SCENARIO WHERE JACK WINS AND THE GOVERNOR WINS.

IF THE GOVERNOR WINS, DOES THAT MEAN GOOD THINGS FOR BIDEN'S AGENDA IN CONGRESS?

AND WHAT THE PUBLIC IF JACK WINS, THAT SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE A CATASTROPHIC FOR DEMOCRATS.

BUT I WONDER IF IF YOU CAN READ ANYTHING INTO WHAT IT MEANS FOR -- >> MIKE, I'M NOT GOING TO ENTERTAIN -- I'M NOT GOING TO ENTERTAIN THE NOTION ABOUT, YOU KNOW, THESE HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIOS.

WHAT I WILL WILL SAY THOUGH IS THAT THE MARGIN OF WHATEVER HAPPENS HERE AS WELL AS IN THE STATE OF VIRGINIA, BECAUSE THEY ALSO HAVE A GOVERNOR'S RACE TOO, WHERE DEMOCRATS ARE UNDERPERFORMING IN BOTH OF THOSE RACES, UNDERPERFORMING IN THE FUNDAMENTALS IN BOTH RACES IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT IS GOING ON NATIONALLY.

THIS IS ABOUT A DEMOCRATIC BASE THAT SAYS WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR US?

THIS INCLUDES AFRICAN-AMERICANS IN PARTICULAR AND ALSO THOSE ON THE LEFT PART OF THE BASE.

THEY'RE SAYING, YOU KNOW, WHAT IS GOING ON HERE?

WE DIDN'T GET WHAT WE WERE PROMISED.

AND I THINK THE MARGINS THAT WE SEE IN THESE TWO RACES WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF HOW THE DEMOCRATS FEEL GOING INTO 2022.

AND WHAT COMES OUT OF WHAT'S GOING ON IN WASHINGTON RIGHT NOW WITH THOSE TWO BIG BILLS.

WILL MAKE OR BREAK I THINK JOE BIDEN GOING -- AND THE DEMOCRATS GOING INTO THE MID TERMS.

>> IS THERE HIDDEN NUMBER IN THERE, PATRICK, OR A QUESTION THAT YOU ASKED THAT IS VERY TELLING ABOUT THE CAMPAIGN THAT YOU WANT TO SHARE?

A NUMBER WE HAVEN'T TALKED ABOUT?

>> THE KEY THING IS THE COVID-19 ISSUE.

WHICH LOOKED LIKE IT WAS GOING TO DOMINATE FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

BUT AS WE KNOW, THESE THINGS, THESE THINGS EBB AND FLOW.

ONE THING PHIL MURPHY HAS NOT HIT ON, MAYBE HE'S AFRAID OF THE THOSE ATTACKS BY JACK ON, YOU KNOW, THE NURSING HOME GUESTS, SMALL BUSINESSES, THINGS THAT PEOPLE ACKNOWLEDGED HAPPENED AND WERE HORRIBLE.

BUT OVERALL, PHIL MMURPHY'S LEADERSHIP, THAT'S WHERE PERCEPTIONS ARE STRONG ON HIM.

HE HAS NOT REALLY HIT ON THAT AS A STRONG LEADER.

THE SAME WAY, REMEMBER, YOU KNOW, GO BACK EIGHT YEARS.

CHRIS CHRISTIE WAS RUNNING FOR RE-ELECTION, HE HIT HARD ON THE LEADERSHIP DURING SANDY.

AND HE WON BY 22 POINTS.

I THINK PHIL MURPHY MISSED AN OPPORTUNITY TO KEEP HIS NUMBERS UP THERE BY REINFORCING HIS EARLY LEADERSHIP DURING THOSE DAYS WHEN WE DIDN'T KNOW WHAT WAS GOING ON WITH THE PANDEMIC.

>> A FEW DAYS LEFT.

PATRICK MURRAY, MONMOUTH INSTITUTE.

THANK YOU FOR COMING ON.

>> THANKS.

P GOOD TO BE WITH YOU, DAVID.

>> SO, PANEL, IS IT OVER?

MICHAEL SIMONS?

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

>> NO.

st I THINK THAT THE LATEST POLLS SUGGEST THAT IT MIGHT NOT BE AS CLOSE AS SOME OF THE ONES BEFORE THAT WERE SUGGESTING.

I DON'T THINK -- IT'S NOT THAT I DON'T TRUST POLLS.

I TRUST PATRICK A LOT.

WE SHOULD PLAY IT THROUGH TO THE FINISH AND SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT.

THE RACE IS AS CLOSE AS 8 AND THEN THERE IS MARGINS OF ERROR AND THEN THERE IS THE MOTIVATION THAT PATRICK WAS TALKING ABOUT.

SO I DON'T THINK PEOPLE SHOULD THINK IT'S OVER.

>> SO THE GAME IS NINE INNINGS.

THE ONLY POLL THAT MAT SERZ THE O -- MATTERS IS THE ONE ON ELECTION DAY.

HOW IMPORTANT ARE POLLS IN FORMING OPINIONS AMONG WHATEVER UNDECIDED VOTERS MAY BE OUT THERE?

>> I'M NOT SURE OF THE ANSWER OF THAT, DAVID.

HOW IMPORTANT ARE THE POLLS IN FORMING.

YOU KNOW, I -- I THINK WHAT I WILL WILL SAY IS THAT WHAT WE'RE SEEING FROM THE CAMPAIGNS I THINK IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT THEY THINK THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS.

AND WHAT WE'RE SEEING FROM PHIL MURPHY IS A REAL FOCUS ON THE PROGRESSIVE POLICIES, THE AGENDA THAT HE ENACTED.

HE -- WHAT I'M OBSERVING IS HE SEEMS TO BE ALL IN ON COURTING DEMOCRATS AND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM AND PLAYING ON HIS PARTY'S ADVANTAGE IN REGISTRATION.

WHAT YOU'RE SEEING ON JACK'S SIDE IS -- AT HIS EVENTS WHEN THEY'RE REPUBLICAN EVENTS, HE TALKS ABOUT THERE IS NOT A MANDATE UNDER GOVERNOR AND I THINK THAT REFLECTS A MOOD IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

IT SHOWS THE PARTY IS NOT OPEN TO MANDATES.

AND, YOU KNOW, WHAT HE SAYS THOUGH IS THAT IN TERMS OF POLICY, HE EFFECTIVELY WOULDN'T CHANGE THE GOVERNOR'S POLICIES ON, FOR EXAMPLE, GIVING TEACHERS A CHOICE TO BE VACCINATED OR TO UNDERGO REGULAR TESTING.

HE SAID THAT IS THE RIGHT POLICY.

SO I THINK WHAT YOU'RE SEEING FROM BOTH CAMPAIGNS IS KIND OF REFLECTS THE ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION WHICH IS FOR JACK HE'S GOT TO WALK A LINE, A THIN LINE.

AND ON THE GOVERNOR'S SIDE, HE'S HOPING IN A TYPICALLY LOW TURNOUT YEAR THAT DEMOCRATS SHOW UP FOR HIM AND THEY DELIVER FOUR MORE YEARS AFTER HE DELIVERED ON MANUFACTURE THE PROMISES THAT HE MADE IN HIS FIRST CAMPAIGN.

>> SO JUST A FEW DAWES LEFT IN THE RACE.

DOES HE NEED TO THROW A HAIL MARY PASS?

WHAT DO YOU THINK, CARLY?

HE HAS TO LAND A BIG BLOW THIS WEEKEND?

MONDAY?

>> I MEAN, IT COULDN'T HURT FOR HIM TO SCORE A WIN IN THAT REGARD.

I THINK GOING BACK TO WHAT EVERYONE SAID AND THIS IS, YOU KNOW, TRIED AND TRUE FOR EVERY ELECTION.

IT ALWAYS IS JUST GOING TO COME DOWN TO TURNOUT.

AND IN THIS CASE, BOTH TURNOUT IN TERMS OF EARLY VOTING, MAIL IN VOTING AND THEN ON ELECTION DAY ITSELF.

YOUR COLLEAGUE HAD A REALLY GREAT STORY ABOUT KIND OF HOW DEMOCRATS REGISTERED DEMOCRATS KIND OF HAVE BEEN ABLE TO UP THE REGISTRATION NUMBERS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST COUPLE OF ELECTION CYCLES.

SO I THINK IT IS, YOU KNOW, MATH IS DEFINITELY ON MURPHY'S SIDE THIS YEAR.

BUT AS PATRICK MURRAY POINTED OUT, YOU KNOW, TURNOUT ON ELECTION DAY COULD COME OUT TO BE VERY HEAVILY CHITERELLI'S BASE.

IT IS GOING TO COME DOWN WHO SHOWS UP AND WHO IS ENERGIZED AND JAZZED TO GET THEIR GUY IN OFFICE.

>> LET ME STICK WITH YOU.

YOU WERE AT RUTGERS FOR BERNIE SANDERS THIS WEEK.

DID HE SEEM TO MOTIVATE THE KIDS THAT HE WAS MEETING THERE?

AND IN GENERAL, DO YOU GET THE SENSE THAT PEOPLE ARE FINALLY FOCUSING ON THIS RACE?

>> IT WAS DEFINITELY AN INTERESTING VENT LAST NIGHT.

TO HEAR MURPHY KIND OF TAILOR THE MESSAGING OR ATTEMPT TO TAIL YORT MESSAGING MORE TOWARDS THE YOUNGER AUDIENCE.

HE HIT REALLY HARD ON APPLAUSE LINES FOR LEGALIZING WEED WHEREAS HE CALLED IT CANNABIS AND MARIJUANA IN OTHER SETTINGS.

HE REALLY EMPHASIZED THE MILLIONAIRES TAX.

A LOT OF USH USE THAT HE SAID, YOU KNOW, ARE LONG TERM IMPACT THINGS THAT WOULD AFFECT A LOT OF YOUNGER FOLKS.

THE RECORD ON ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE, LEANED REALLY HEAVILY ON.

AND HE SPENT THE RALLY TRYING TO TIE A LOT OF HIS SOCIAL POLICIES TO SOME POPULAR POLL A SI THAT'S SANDERS HAS PLOETED AND THAT HAVE BEEN REALLY POPULAR WITH YOUNGER CROWD.

WHETHER THE CROWD IS RESPONDING MORE POSITIVELY FOR BERNIE RATHER THAN MURPHY, IT'S KIND OF HARD TO TELL.

BUT I THINK THE ATTEMPT THERE WAS TO TIE THE TWO TOGETHER ON ISSUES THAT ARE GOING TO BE IMPACTING YOUNGER FOLKS FOR YEARS TO COME.

WHETHER THAT'S ENOUGH TO MOTIVATE THE VOTERS, IT'S HARD TO TELL.

BUT I GUESS WE'LL SEE WHAT THE NUMBERS COME THROUGH.

>> MIKE, YOU WERE ALSO THERE.

SIMILAR IMPRESSION?

SOMETHING YOU WANT TO SHARE?

>> YEAH, SHORE SURE.

I THINK SHE IS RIGHT.

I DO THINK THAT ON BALANCE IT SEEMED LIKE PEOPLE WERE MORE EXCITED FOR SENATOR SANDERS.

THEY WERE CHANTING BERNIE.

CARLY, I DON'T THINK I HEARD MURPHY CHANTS.

IT SEEMED LIKE THE ENERGY WAS CENTERED ON SENATOR SANDERS.

AND THERE IS JUST A DIFFERENCE IN STYLE, TOO.

I MEAN, SANDERS FOCUSING ON THE POWERFUL INTERESTS AND LOBBIES.

THOSE ARE SORT OF -- THOSE AREN'T ISSUES THAT YOU HEAR MURPHY TALK ABOUT A LOT.

HE TALKS ABOUT HOW RICH PEOPLE NEED TO PAY THE FAIR SHARE WHEN PUSHING AND TOUTING THE MILLIONAIRES TAX.

BUT HE IS NOT TALKING ABOUT POWERFUL INTERESTS.

SO THERE IS A BIT OF A DIFFERENCE THERE IN TERMS OF THE MESSAGING.

I THINK IT IS VERY CLEAR THAT MURPHY IS LEANING ON THE PROGRESSIVE AGENDA AS HIS FINAL PITCH.

>>.

>> ONE THING WE HAVEN'T TOUCHED ON A LOT IS THE MONEY.

WE HEAR NUMBERS ABOUT CAMPAIGNS HAVING TENS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.

WE DON'T EVEN BLINK AN U AT THAT ANYMORE.

MICHAEL SIMONS, YOU FOLLOW THE MONEY TRAIL IN A PIECE YOU DID THIS WEEK.

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THESE OUTSIDE SOURCES AND SO ON?

>> YEAH.

I MEAN, IN THE END, BOTH CAMPAIGNS ARE GOING TO HAVE ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY IN HOUSE.

MURPHY RAISED THE MAXIMUM.

GOT HIS PUBLIC MATCHING FUNDS AND HE NEARLY HAS AND I'M SURE WE'LL GET THERE.

IN THAT REGARD, THEY'RE EVEN.

IT IS INTERESTING WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHERE THEY GOT THE MONEY FROM, OF THE INDIVIDUAL DONORS TO PHIL MURPHY'S CAMPAIGN, 38% OF THAT MONEY COMES FROM OUT OF STATE.

WHICH IS PRETTY INTERESTING.

I MEAN, HE'S -- HE USED TO BE THE FUND-RAISING CHAIR FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE.

SO HE KNOWS A LOT OF PEOPLE.

OTHER THAN NEW JERSEY, NEW YORK, THE NEXT BIGGEST SOURCE FOR HIM IS CALIFORNIA.

AND THEN FOR HIM, I THINK IT IS 85% OF THE INDIVIDUAL DONORS FOR NEW JERSEY.

THE SECOND BIGGEST STATE FOR HIM ISN'T NEW YORK OR PENNSYLVANIA.

IT'S FLORIDA.

WHICH A LOT OF PEOPLE FROM NEW JERSEY MOVED THERE OR FOR MAYBE FOR TAX PURPOSES THEY LUF THERE.

MANY OF THEM STILL HAD NEW JERSEY BASED EMPLOYERS.

>> THOSE ARE REALLY INTERESTING NUMBERS.

AND EARLY VOTING THIS YEAR FOR THE FIRST TIME.

NOT SURE WHY IT COSTS $80 MILLION FOR, WHAT, TEN DAYS OF EARLY VOTING?

WHAT IS THE RETURN ON INVESTMENT HAVE TO BE FOR THE EXPERIMENT TO BE CONSIDERED SUCCESS?

CARLY?

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

>> SO IT'S INTERESTING.

WHAT WE'RE SEEING NOW IS WHAT MURPHY'S CAMPAIGN HAS SAID IS A LOT OF UP FRONT INVESTMENT FOR SOMETHING THAT MAY NOT REALLY KICK IN FOR A COUPLE YEARS.

LIKE THERE IS A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF MONEY IN INVESTMENT THAT HAS TO GO TO INFORMING PEOPLE, A, WHAT EARLY VOTING IS, MAYBE THEIR POLLING LOCATION IS NOT THEIR TRADITIONAL POLLING LOCATION ON ELECTION DAY.

YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE TO PAY PEOPLE.

THERE IS ALL SORTS OF INFORMATION CAMPAIGNS, FROM THE MURPHY CAMPAIGN PERSPECTIVE, WHAT THEY'RE SAYING IS, SURE, IT MAY RETURN EARLY VOTING IN PERSON RETURNS MAY BE SLUGGISH NOW.

BUT IT'S ABOUT INVESTING AND INFORMING THE COMMUNITY THAT THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE HAPPENING FOR FURTHER YEARS.

NOW IF IT DOESN'T END UP WORKING OUT AND HE DOESN'T GET RE-ELECTED AND THERE IS A FUTURE WHERE WE DON'T HAVE EARLY VOTING, WILL THAT MONEY HAVE BEEN WELL SPENT?

IT'S HARD TO TELL.

I THINK HE'S BANKING ON GETTING RE-ELECTED AND MAKING THIS A REGULAR PROCESS.

WITH THAT BECOMES MORE FAMILIARITY AND EXPECTATION AND THEY HOPE A HIGHER RETURN ON INVESTMENT.

>> MICHAEL SIMONS, ALL MY REPUBLICAN FRIENDS TELL ME THAT THIS IS WAY TOO MUCH MONEY TO SPEND ON THE FEW VOTES THAT YOU'RE GOING TO GET.

IS IT GOING COST LESS IN YEARS TO COME AND THEN MAYBE WE'LL SEE IT BALANCING OUT A LITTLE BIT?

IS THAT THE PLAN?

>> SURE.

THAT'S PART OF IT.

SOME OF THE EXPENSE UP FRONT IS ELECTRONIC POLL BOOKS.

THEY HAVE DIFFERENT VOTING MACHINES.

YOU DON'T PRESET THE VOTING MACHINE WITH THE BALLOT FOR YOUR TOWN BECAUSE THERE IS NOT AN EARLY VOTING CENTER IN EVERY TOWN.

SO THERE IS A LOT OF -- THERE WERE A LOT OF UP FRONT COSTS TO GO WITH THAT.

st SOME IS PERSONNEL.

I MEAN, I EARLY VOTED LAST WEEKEND AND IT WAS SUNDAY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

OVER THE COURSE OF TWO DAYS AT THAT EARLY VOTING CENTER, I THINK THEY HAD LESS THAN 100 PEOPLE COME IN.

AND THEY STAFFED IT UP FOR, YOU KNOW, YOU DON'T WANT TO SAY 12 HOURS SATURDAY, TEN HOURS ON SUNDAY OR SO.

SO THAT'S A LOT OF PEOPLE SPENDING A LOT OF TIME THERE.

MAYBE IT WILL TAKE OFF OVER THE COURSE OF TIME.

BUT, YEAH, IT HASN'T BEEN BIG OUT OF THE BOX.

>> WHAT'S THE HEAD LINE ON WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 3rd?

LET'S START WITH YOU, CARLY.

SURPRISE US.

>> I MEAN -- WHAT'S THE HEADLINE?

>> I DON'T KNOW.

>> I'M THINKING BIG SURPRISES.

WHAT IF WE HAVE A TIE?

WHAT IF BOTH PEOPLE WIN AND WE HAVE DUEL GOVERNORS?

>> DUEL GOVERNORS?

>> THE HEADLINE EVERY YEAR, IT'S GOING TO BE, YOU KNOW, WHOEVER MOTIVATED THE BASE AND TURNED OUT THE VOTERS AND WHOEVER CAST THE VOTES IS GOING TO WIN.

IF IT'S MURPHY, THEN MOVING FORWARD, YOU KNOW, WHAT DOES A SECOND MURPHY TERM LOOK LIKE?

WHAT ARE HIS POLICY PRIORITIES?

WHAT ARE HIS GOALS?

IF CHITERELLI WINS, WHAT DOES A REPUBLICAN GOVERNORSHIP LOOK LIKE POST TRUMP IN NEW JERSEY?

I THINK IT'S, YOU KNOW, AS ALWAYS, IT'S GOING TO BE REAL SURPRISE.

>> MICHAEL SIMONS, ANY BIG SURPRISES ON WHAT WE SHOULD EXPECT FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING?

>> I THINK BRAVES WIN WORLD SERIES IN SIX.

THAT'S MY PREDICTION.

>> WE'LL TAKE THAT.

>> A THOUGHT OFF WHAT CARLY WAS SAYING IS THAT IF GOVERNOR MURPHY WINS RE-ELECTION, THAT IS A MANDATE TO DO WHAT EXACTLY?

I MEAN, A LOT OF THE CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN A LOOK BACK AND ABOUT THINGS THAT HE ACCOMPLISHED, THINGS HE SAID HE SET OUT TO ACCOMPLISH AND THEN DID.

BUT THERE IS -- I GUESS THIS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN THERE IS AN INCUMBENT RUNNING FOR RE-ELECTION.

I DON'T KNOW PRECISELY WHAT THE AGENDA WILL BE FOR A SECOND TERM.

>> ALL RIGHT.

LET ME GET ONE LAST BIT OF NEWS IN HERE.

NOR TERESA RUIZ POISED TO BECOME THE NEXT SENATE MAJORITY LEADER.

WE ASKED REPORTERS ROUNDTABLE ABOUT THIS WHEN SHE RETIRED A FEW MONTHS AGO.

THREE OUT OF FOUR OF THE PANEL PICKED RUIZ.

IS THIS A FUTURE SENATE PRESIDENT HERE?

MIKE?

>> SHE CERTAINLY BEEN ONE OF THE MOST PROMINENT LAWMAKERS EVEN BEFORE SHE WAS MAJORITY LEADER.

SO I MEAN, I THINK I HAVE TO SAY IT'S POSSIBILITY.

RIGHT?

SWEENEY IS FROM GLOUCESTER COUNTY.

SENATE MAJORITY LEADER ASSUMING DEMOCRATS HOLD ON TO THE CHAUM BET CHAMBER.

SO I THINK THAT MIGHT BE FAIR GUESS.

I'M NOT SURE.

>> CARLY, GOVERNOR RUIZ?

>> I MEAN, I DON'T KNOW.

I CAN TELL YOU HER VOICE IS GOING TO BE MISSED ON THE EDUCATION COMMITTEE FOR SURE.

SHE HAS BEEN THE MOST OUTSPOKEN AND THE, YOU KNOW, KIND OF MOST PROMINENT ADVOCATE FOR EDUCATION ISSUES ACROSS THE STATE.

SO I THINK THE QUESTION AT LEAST FOR FOLKS IN MY SPHERES RIGHT SNOU WHO IS GOING TO STEP UP AND REPLACE HER ON THE EDUCATION COMMITTEE AND WILL SHE CONTINUE HER ADVOCACY FOR EDUCATION ISSUES, YOU KNOW, ON THE BUDGET COMMITTEE AND IN HER OTHER ROLES?

SO, YEAH, I THINK THE QUESTION FOR EDUCATION ADVOCATES JUST WHAT IS NEXT?

WHO COMES NEXT?

>> MICHAEL?

YOUR THOUGHTS?

>> IT'S AN IMPORTANT POSITION, OBVIOUSLY.

IT IS ALWAYS AN IMPORTANT POSITION IN TRENTON.

IF YOU START TO ALREADY THINK PAST THIS YEAR'S ELECTION AND THE PROSPECT OF STEVE SWEENEY RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR, THEN YEAH, YOU CAN SEE HIM BEING PART OF SENATE IN THE FUTURE.

>> ALL RIGHT.

THAT IS "ROUNDTABLE" FOR TODAY.

PANEL, THANK YOU ALL.

THANKS ALSO TO PATRICK MURRAY.

JUST A FEW DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY.

I HOPE YOU'LL JOIN US FOR LIVE COVERAGE OF RESULTS AND ANALYSIS TUESDAY AT 10:00 P.M.

I WILL BE AT THE DESK.

MICHAEL HILL, COLLEEN O'DAY WILL BE WITH US AND THE ENTIRE SPOTLIGHT TEAM IS COVERING THE RACES.

IT IS LIVE TUESDAY NIGHT BEGINNING AT 10:00 P.M.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER AND BE SURE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE YOUTUBE CHANNEL TO GET MORE CHAT BOX AND BUSINESS BEAT WITH RHONDA SHAFFLER.

I'M DAVID CRUZ.

FOR THE ENTIRE CREW OVER HERE, THANKS FOR WATCHING.

WE'LL SEE YOU NEXT WEEK.

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