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♪ ♪ >>> HI, EVERYBODY, IT'S "REPORTERS ROUNDTABLE."

I'M DAVID CRUZ.

JOINED THIS WEEK BY ANOTHER DISTINGUISHED PANEL OF STATE HOUSE REPORTERS, COLLEEN O'DAY IS SENIOR WRITER AND PROJECTS EDITOR AT NJ SPOTLIGHT NEWS.

MATT ARKO IS THE POLITICS WRITER FOR NJ ADVANCED MEDIA.

AND DUSTIN IS STATE HOUSE REPORTER FOR THE RECORD, "USA TODAY" NETWORK.

PANEL, WELCOME.

WE'VE SEEN OUR FIRST DEBATE BETWEEN THE CANDIDATES FOR GOVERNOR, AND WE'RE ABOUT A MONTH AWAY FROM ELECTION DAY, SO OUR FOCUS THIS WEEK IS GOING TO BE ON THE RACE.

LET'S START WITH THE DEBATE AND IT WAS THE LIVELIEST DEBATE WE'VE SEEN AROUND HERE FOR SOME TIME WITH LOTS OF AUDIENCE PARTICIPATION, PRETTY MUCH FROM THE BEGINNING.

LET'S TAKE A LOOK.

>> WE'RE STILL DIGGING OUT OF THE DAMAGE THAT TRUMP DID IN TERMS OF MASKING AND MAKING IT POLITICAL.

I MEAN, COME ON.

AND THIS GUY -- THIS GUY HAS BEEN WITH HIM EVERY STEP OF THE WAY, SPEAKING AT A STOP THE STEAL RALLY.

LET'S FOCUS ON DOING THE RIGHT THINGS BASED ON SCIENCE, DATA, AND FACTS.

>> IF I MAY, IF THOSE WATCHING AT HOME ARE PLAYING THAT DRINKING GAME WHERE YOU GOT TO TAKE A SHOT EVERY TIME YOU HEAR "TRUMP" YOU BETTER STOP BECAUSE YOU'RE GOING TO BE BOMBED REAL SOON.

>> OF COURSE, "REPORTERS ROUNDTABLE" POLICY PROHIBITS US FROM PARTICIPATING IN DRINKING GAMES, BUT WE DID ENJOY THE SPIRITED EXCHANGES.

HERE'S ANOTHER ONE THAT GOT A RISE OUT OF BOTH THE CANDIDATES AND THE CROWD.

IT'S MURPHY RETURNING TO HIS OPPONENT'S PRESENCE AT A "STOP THE STEAL" RALLY IN SOUTH JERSEY LAST YEAR.

>> I WENT THERE.

I DIDN'T SEE PEOPLE IN THE KIND OF APPAREL THAT WE FIND OFFENSIVE.

I DIDN'T SEE ANY OF THOSE SIGNS.

NOW -- LET ME SAY THIS.

IF THEY WERE THERE, I DON'T THINK I SHOULD BE HELD RESPONSIBLE.

I'VE NEVER HELD THE GOVERNOR RESPONSIBLE FOR ATTENDING RALLIES WHERE PEOPLE WERE HOLDING SIGNS THAT SAID "DEFUND THE POLICE" OR "NO JUSTICE, NO PEACE."

I CAN'T BE HELD RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT ANY PERSON DOES AT A RALLY.

>> WHEN DID "NO JUSTICE, NO PEACE" BECOME CONTROVERSIAL?

LISTEN.

THIS RISES TO THE LEVEL OF DISQUALIFYING.

COME ON, MAN.

YOUR PICTURE AND NAME WERE ON THE INVITATION.

YOUR PICTURE AND NAME WERE ON THE INVITATION.

THERE'S VIDEO, I'VE SEEN IT WITH MY OWN EYES, OF YOU STANDING THERE WITH A "STOP THE STEAL" SIGN RIGHT BESIDE YOU.

THERE WERE CONFEDERATE FLAGS.

THERE WERE WHITE SUPREMACISTS.

IT'S THE EXACT SAME COCKTAIL THAT WAS JANUARY 6th, BY THE WAY.

IT WAS JANUARY 6th AND IT ALMOST BROUGHT OUR DEMOCRACY DOWN.

MEMBERS OF LAW ENFORCEMENT WERE KILLED, INCLUDING A NATIVE NEW JERSEY SON.

>> YOU DON'T REALLY SEE THE GOVERNOR GET THAT ANGLEGITATED.

WE HEARD SEVERAL GROANS FROM AROUND THE PRESS ROOM ON THAT.

A FUMBLE HERE FOR CIATTARELLI?

>> I DON'T KNOW HOW ELSE HE GETS AROUND THIS.

I MEAN, HE'S BEEN SAYING THIS ALL ALONG.

HE DIDN'T KNOW THAT THIS WAS A STOP THE STEAL RALLY.

IT IS KIND OF A HARD THING TO SAY GIVEN THAT HE WAS ON THE INVITATION, HIS PHOTO, HIS NAME, IT DID SAY, "STOP THE STEAL," SO I'M JUST NOT SURE HOW ELSE HE GETS AROUND THIS.

>> MATT, DO VOTERS CARE ABOUT THIS AS MUCH AS THE MURPHY CAMPAIGN SEEMS TO CARE ABOUT IT?

>> WELL, THAT'S WHAT WE'RE GOING TO FIND OUT.

I MEAN, OBVIOUSLY, WE ARE IN A DEMOCRATIC HEAVY STATE.

DONALD TRUMP, THE FORMER PRESIDENT, IS VERY UNPOPULAR IN THIS STATE.

WELL, YOU KNOW, BY AND LARGE, UNPOPULAR IN THE STATE, BUT HE'S ALSO POPULAR, STILL, AMONG REPUBLICANS IN NEW JERSEY.

SO, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SEEN THIS ENTIRE CAMPAIGN, JACK SORT OF THREAD THIS NEEDLE, WHICH, YOU KNOW, IS A DIFFICULT ONE.

THIS IS A REPUBLICAN WHO FOR SIX YEARS IN THE ASSEMBLY WAS A MODERATE REPUBLICAN, ENTERED THE GUBERNATORIAL RACE FOR THE SECOND TIME, WON THE NOMINATION, BUT BEFORE HE WON THE NOMINATION, HE HAD TO GO UP AGAINST PEOPLE THAT WERE, YOU KNOW, WAY MORE ALIGNED WITH DONALD TRUMP, SOMEBODY WHO JACK HIMSELF CALLED A CHARLATAN BACK WHEN TRUMP FIRST RAN FOR PRESIDENT.

SO, YOU KNOW, HE'S REALLY HAVING TO THREAD THE NEEDLE.

HE'S FOUND HIMSELF DURING THE PRIMARY GOING WAY FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN WE'VE EVER SEEN HIM IN THE PAST.

AND THIS IS WHERE WE ARE TODAY.

>> DUSTIN, IS HE NOW JUST KIND OF HAVING TO PAY FOR EARLY EMPHASIS ON SECURING HIS BASE, THE TRUMP FORCES IN NEW JERSEY?

HE KIND OF MAYBE FELT LIKE HE HAD TO SHORE THAT SIDE UP AND NOW HE'S PAYING FOR IT IN THE GENERAL?

>> IT'S LOOKING THAT WAY.

BUT THAT'S THE NATURE OF THE WHOLE SYSTEM.

IN THE PRIMARY, EACH CANDIDATE'S GOT TO GO TO SORT OF THE EXTREME ENDS OF WHERE THEIR PARTIES ARE AT AND THEN THEY SWING BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE IN THE ELECTION, THE GENERAL.

JACK CIATTARELLI HASN'T QUITE SWUNG ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MIDDLE, ALTHOUGH I'M SURE HE WOULD TELL YOU THAT HE'S STILL THE SAME JACK CIATTARELLI HE'S ALWAYS BEEN, WHICH IS SOCIALLY MODERATE.

SO, HE'S GOT A STRONG HEADWINDS, LET'S JUST SAY THAT.

>> HE SEEMS TO HAVE KIND OF HUNG ON TO THAT -- THE RIGHT WING FOR A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN A LOT OF US EXPECTED, NO?

>> WELL, WERE THEY EVER GOING TO GO AWAY?

I MEAN, WHOEVER THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE WAS, WAS GOING TO HAVE THEIR SUPPORT, SO IT DOESN'T HURT HIM IN THAT SENSE THAT HE SUPPORTED DONALD TRUMP.

YOU KNOW, PEOPLE WHO SUPPORTED HIM ARE GOING TO SUPPORT JACK CIATTARELLI.

>> ON THE OTHER HAND, RIGHT, THE REPUBLICANS NOW HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE REALITY THAT THIS IS THE PARTY OF TRUMP OR INCREASINGLY THE PARTY OF TRUMP, MATT?

>> WE'RE JUST GOING TO HAVE TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT, BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, HISTORICALLY, OBVIOUSLY, TO RUN AS A REPUBLICAN IN NEW JERSEY, YOU NEED TO BE SORT OF DOWN THE MIDDLE.

YOU NEED TO PICK OFF INDEPENDENTS, MAYBE PICK OFF SOME DEMOCRATS.

HE'S RUNNING A DIFFERENT PLAYBOOK.

MAYBE, WITH THE FOLKS I SPOKE TO, YOU KNOW, HIS ANGLE COULD BE VOTERS THAT WERE ENERGIZED BY DONALD TRUMP, SOME OF THOSE PEOPLE WERE NEW VOTERS SO HE MAY BE PLAYING -- TRYING TO PLAY A NUMBERS GAME TO GET THOSE, TO CONTINUE TO ENERGIZE THOSE FOLKS, TO GET THEM OUT TO THE POLLS, AS OPPOSED TO THEM SITTING THIS ONE OUT BECAUSE TRUMP ISN'T ON THE BALLOT.

LOOK, IF WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE NUMBER GAME, REPUBLICANS ARE WAY OUTNUMBERED IN THIS STATE BY MORE THAN A MILLION REGISTERED VOTERS, NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT REPUBLICANS TEND TO VOTE IN ELECTIONS DISPROPORTIONATELY -- OR, OFF-YEAR ELECTIONS DISPROPORTIONATELY MORE THAN DEMOCRATS.

SO, LIKE, I SORT OF QUESTION THE -- DOES JACK CIATTARELLI NEED TO MOTIVATE THESE REPUBLICAN VOTERS TO GET OUT TO THE POLLS WHO TYPICALLY ALREADY GO TO THE POLLS, WHO HAVE ALREADY MADE UP THEIR MIND BEFORE THEY KNEW WHO JACK CIATTARELLI WAS, THEY WERE GOING TO VOTE AGAINST PHIL MURPHY?

BUT WE'RE GOING TO SEE IN NOVEMBER WHETHER OR NOT THESE OTHER TRUMP VOTERS WHO ARE NEW VOTERS, THIS SORT OF NUMBERS GAME, WHETHER OR NOT HE SORT OF HAD TO PLAY TO THAT.

YOU KNOW, RIGHT NOW, THE POLLS SUGGEST THAT IT'S NOT THE RIGHT WAY TO GO, BUT WE'RE GOING TO SEE.

>> SO, I PUT UP, AND SOMETIMES ON TWITTER, I'LL PUT UP A POLL KNOWING FULL WELL THAT THESE ARE NOT SCIENTIFIC POLLS, AND IT'S EASY TO GAME A TWITTER POLL, BUT I PUT THEM OUT THERE JUST SORT OF AS A JOKE BUT I PUT ONE OUT AFTER THE DEBATE THIS WEEK, AND WHILE MOST OF MY FOLLOWERS ON TWITTER, I THINK, LEAN TO THE LEFT, THE SURPRISING THING WAS THAT CIATTARELLI WAS UP 12 POINTS ON THIS TWITTER POLL AND WHAT IT SHOWED TO ME, I THINK, WAS SOME ENTHUSIASM OR MORE ENTHUSIASM, 10:00 P.M. ON A TUESDAY, PEOPLE ANSWERING A TWITTER VOTE, AND REPUBLICANS SAY THAT THAT SUGGESTS ENTHUSIASM THAT LEADS TO MOMENTUM.

COLLEEN, DO THE REPUBLICANS HAVE MOMENTUM RIGHT NOW?

>> YOU KNOW, ANY EXPOSURE FOR TWITTER -- I MEAN, EXCUSE ME, FOR CIATTARELLI, AT THIS POINT, KIND OF HAD TO HELP HIM, BECAUSE HE'S UNKNOWN, AT LEAST IN THE LAST OFFICIAL POLLS WE HAD, BY HALF THE VOTERS OR SO.

SO -- AND HE CERTAINLY SEEMED TO DO QUITE WELL IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DEBATE WHEN HE WAS HAMMERING PHIL MURPHY ABOUT THE COVID RESPONSE, PARTICULARLY IN LONG-TERM CARE FACILITIES.

I THINK HE LANDED AN AWFUL LOT OF PUNCHES DURING THAT PART OF THE DEBATE.

HE BROUGHT UP HIS -- WHAT SEEMS TO BE NOW ONE OF HIS MANTRAS, I THINK, WE ALL FEEL LIKE IF HE'S GOING TO MAKE MORE HEADWAY, HE NEEDS TO USE IT MORE, WHICH IS THAT STRANGE STATEMENT PHIL MURPHY MADE ABOUT, YOU KNOW, IF TAXES ARE YOUR ISSUE, NEW JERSEY'S NOT YOUR STATE.

SO, I THINK, YOU KNOW, HE DOES GAIN SOME MOMENTUM THERE, BUT IT'S CERTAINLY, YOU KNOW, WE WON'T KNOW UNTIL WE SEE THE NEXT POLLS COME OUT JUST HOW MUCH OF A BOOST HE MAY HAVE GOTTEN.

>> WELL, WE'RE GOING TO GET TO ANOTHER POLL IN A MINUTE THAT CAME OUT THAT WAS CONDUCTED BEFORE THE DEBATE.

MATT, IS THERE MOMENTUM ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE?

>> IT'S JUST -- LOOK, I MEAN, WE'RE LIVING IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THINGS ARE SO POLARIZED AND LIKE I SAID BEFORE, TYPICALLY IN THESE TYPE OF ELECTIONS, NONPRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, DEMOCRATS DISPROPORTIONATELY TO REPUBLICANS TEND TO SIT THEM OUT, SO IF YOU'RE IN MURPHY'S CAMPAIGN, THE NAME OF THE GAME IS, OKAY, ALL SIGNS SHOW THAT WE'RE AHEAD.

WE CAN GET INTO THE POLLS ABOUT WHAT PEOPLE ARE THINKING, WHICH IS REALLY IMPORTANT, BUT THE NAME OF THE GAME, THEN, FOR THEM IS, OKAY, WE NEED TO MOTIVATE OUR PEOPLE TO GET OUT AND VOTE.

AND I DON'T, YOU KNOW, LOOK, I DON'T HAVE A POLL OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD BUT I WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED IF REPUBLICAN VOTERS WEREN'T MORE ENERGIZED THAN DEMOCRATIC VOTERS, JUST HISTORICALLY, THAT'S SORT OF HOW THESE ELECTIONS SHAKE OUT.

>> YEAH.

HERE'S AN ISSUE THAT THE POLLS SAY WORKS FOR CIATTARELLI.

TAXES.

HE TALKED ABOUT IT AND KIND OF PUT MURPHY ON HIS HEELS ABOUT IT AT THE DEBATE.

LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THAT CLIP AND COME BACK.

>> YOU'VE RAISED TAXES IN THE PAST, INCLUDING THE MILLIONAIRE'S TAX.

WILL YOU PLEDGE RIGHT NOW NOT TO RAISE ANY TAXES AT ANY TIME IN THE NEXT FOUR YEARS?

>> YEAH, I ALREADY HAVE -- I ALREADY HAVE AND THE ANSWER IS YES.

WE'RE DONE.

>> YES, YOU -- >> 100%.

>> YOU WILL RAISE TAXES?

>> WE WILL NOT.

>> YOU WILL NOT.

>> I PLEDGE TO NOT RAISE TAXES.

>> YOU PLEDGE NOT TO RAISE TAXES AT ANY TIME IN THE NEXT FOUR YEARS?

>> AT ANY TIME IN THE NEXT FOUR YEARS, BUT I'M NOT MAKING NEWS TONIGHT.

I'VE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR.

THE ANSWER IS, I PLEDGE TO NOT RAISE TAXES.

>> NO NEW TAXES.

WHERE HAVE I HEARD THAT ONE BEFORE?

DUSTIN, FAMOUS LAST WORDS?

I MEAN, SOME PEOPLE HAVE CALLED THAT AN IRRESPONSIBLE PROMISE.

WHAT IF PANDEMIC B HITS OR WHAT IF THE ECONOMY SHRINKS?

IS IT SMART TO MAKE A NO NEW TAXES PROMISE HERE?

>> IT'S SMART ON A DEBATE STAGE, I SUPPOSE.

AND THEN WHEN IT COMES TIME WHEN NOBODY'S REALLY PAYING ATTENTION IN JUNE, YOU PUT SOME THINGS INTO THE BUDGET WITH YOUR DEMOCRATIC LEGISLATURE AND YOU SAY, NO, IT'S NOT REALLY A TAX.

IT'S A FEE.

AND YOU START GETTING INTO SEMANTICS.

THAT'S A STRONG POSSIBILITY.

THAT WAS THE FIRST TIME I HEARD MURPHY SAY THAT.

HE SAID THAT HE HAD BEEN SAYING HE'S NOT GOING TO RAISE TAXES FOR THE LAST YEAR.

AS HE'S BEEN RAISING TAXES.

BUT I'VE BEEN FOLLOWING HIM FOR FOUR YEARS, FIVE YEARS NOW, AND THIS IS THE FIRST TIME I'VE HEARD -- MAYBE I MISSED IT, BUT THAT WAS NEWS TO ME.

THE BIGGER PROBLEM THAT WHOEVER'S GOING TO BE THE GOVERNOR FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS IS GOING TO FACE IS HOW YOU BALANCE THIS BUDGET THAT IS SO BLOATED WITH SPENDING RIGHT NOW, LARGELY ON THE STRENGTH OF FEDERAL STIMULUS MONEY.

SO, ONCE THAT ONE-SHOT REVENUE GOES AWAY, WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO?

I MEAN, YOU STILL HAVE MASSIVE DEBTS THAT YOU HAVE TO PAY AND OBLIGATIONS, SO I DON'T SEE HOW YOU DO THAT WITHOUT RAISING TAXES AND/OR MAKING SOME REALLY STEEP CUTS.

>> MATT, IS HE GOING TO BE EATING THOSE WORDS WITH A KNIFE AND FORK LATER ON IN THE YEAR OR THE YEAR AFTER THAT?

>> SO, YOU'RE ASKING ME IF THE MAN WHO -- IF HE WINS RE-ELECTION, CAN'T RUN FOR A THIRD CONSECUTIVE TERM, IS GOING TO BE EATING THOSE WORDS?

DUSTIN HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD.

IF SOMETHING HAPPENS, THEY'LL CALL IT A FEE.

AND LIKE, LOOK, YOU KNOW, WILL THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN THE STATE BE EATING THOSE WORDS WHEN SOMEBODY WHO WANTS TO RUN AFTER PHIL MURPHY, MAYBE SOMEBODY WHO PHIL MURPHY DOESN'T EVEN REALLY LIKE PERSONALLY, WILL THAT HAMSTRING THEM?

MAYBE.

BUT I JUST WANT TO ECHO WHAT DUSTIN SAID.

EVERYBODY -- EVERY REPORTER I WAS WITH, WHEN THE GOVERNOR SAID THAT AND HE SAID THAT IN THE SPIN ROOM AFTERWARDS, THAT HE'S BEEN SAYING THIS AND HE DIDN'T BREAK NEWS, THAT WAS NEWS TO ME.

SO IF THERE'S ANY REPORTER, IF I'VE EVER WRITTEN IN THE PAST THAT THE GOVERNOR MADE THIS PLEDGE OR PROMISE OR JUST STATEMENT, PLEASE POINT IT OUT TO ME.

BECAUSE THAT WAS NEW NEWS TO ME.

>> YEAH.

ALL RIGHT, OVERALL, WHO BENEFITTED THE MOST FROM THIS WEEK'S DEBATE?

LET'S GET AN ANSWER, A QUICK ONE FROM EACH OF YOU.

COLLEEN, LET'S START WITH YOU.

WHO'S THE WINNER?

>> WELL, YOU KNOW, AGAIN, I THINK CIATTARELLI PROBABLY WON THE FIRST HALF BUT I WOULD SAY MURPHY, YOU KNOW, DID BETTER IN THE SECOND HALF.

BUT I GUESS I WOULD HAVE TO SAY THAT BECAUSE CIATTARELLI AT LEAST GOT SOME EXPOSURE, AND WE DON'T REALLY KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE WERE WATCHING, BUT I WOULD THINK THAT THAT WOULD HAVE TO GIVE HIM A LITTLE BIT MORE OF AN EDGE, BECAUSE PEOPLE SAW HIM, BECAUSE HE'S HAD A LOT OF TROUBLE GETTING HIS NAME AND HIS MESSAGE OUT THERE.

>> THAT WAS A VERY MATT ARKO ANSWER.

THIS GUY, BUT MAYBE THIS GUY.

MATT, HOW WILL YOU IMPROVE ON THAT ANSWER?

>> I AGREE WITH HER, THOUGH, THAT ANY -- LOOK, ANY TIME YOU'RE THE UNDERDOG IN THE RACE, ANY TIME YOU'RE THE UNDERDOG IN THE RACE, ANY EXPOSURE IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE BETTER.

LOOK, I MEAN, YOU KNOW, IF -- I BET YOU IF JACK'S CAMPAIGN WOULD LIKE TO HAVE SIX MORE DEBATES BETWEEN NOW AND ELECTION DAY.

THAT'S THE NATURE OF WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU'RE DOWN IN THE POLLS.

SO, NO, AM I GOING TO SAY WHO WON?

I DON'T KNOW.

AND I ALSO QUESTION HOW MUCH IT REALLY MOVES THE NEEDLE.

I MEAN, HOW MANY PEOPLE TUNE INTO THESE THINGS -- I'M A LITTLE BIT SKEPTICAL.

BUT I WOULD SAY THAT, YOU KNOW, FOR JACK, GETTING TO INTRODUCE YOURSELF TO PEOPLE IS PROBABLY A NET POSITIVE.

>> DUSTIN, LET ME GET AN ANSWER OUT OF YOU.

WHO BENEFITTED THE MOST?

>> I AGREE, CIATTARELLI PROBABLY BENEFITTED THE MOST, BUT I THINK THE TRUE WINNER WAS THE AUDIENCE, BECAUSE I'VE NEVER HEARD A CROWD HAVE SO MUCH FUN.

IT REALLY SOUNDED LIKE THEY WERE HAVING A BLAST THERE.

>> COLLEEN, DID YOU SAY THAT THE BAR WAS OPEN BEFORE THEY LET THE AUDIENCE IN?

>> YES.

THERE'S A NICE BAR, NICO'S, AT NJ PAC AND THE BAR WAS OPEN AND YOU COULDN'T BRING YOUR DRINKS INTO THE HALL, AS I UNDERSTAND, SO THERE WAS SOME CHUGGING, I HEAR, GOING ON RIGHT BEFOREHAND.

I'M NOT SURE IF THAT INFLUENCED THE MOOD OF THE CROWD, BUT IT WAS A VERY LIVELY CROWD.

>> WELL, I CAN TELL YOU THAT THE BAR WAS PACKED AFTER THE DEBATE, SO MAYBE ALL THOSE PEOPLE WERE ON TWITTER.

LET'S MOVE ON.

THERE WAS A POLL OUT THIS WEEK CONDUCTED BEFORE THE DEBATE.

IT'S FROM STOCKTON.

LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE NUMBERS THERE.

IT SHOWS MURPHY UP BY NINE POINTS AMONG LIKELY VOTERS, WHICH IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS POLL AND LAST WEEK'S MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY POLL.

HERE, THEY POLLED LIKELY VOTERS, AND WE'LL TALK ABOUT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THAT IN A SECOND.

AND THE OTHER PART OF THIS IS MURPHY'S APPROVAL, WHICH IS UP OVER 50%.

THE POLL ALSO SHOWS SOME WEAKNESSES.

APPROVAL OF MURPHY'S COVID RESPONSE IS ONLY AT 50%, WHICH I GUESS IS NOT TERRIBLE, BUT IT AIN'T THE 60s WHERE HE HAD BEEN POLLING ON THAT PARTICULAR ISSUE OVER THE PAST YEAR.

AND LASTLY, ON TAXES, THE POLL GIVES THE CLEAR EDGE TO CIATTARELLI, WHICH JUST CONFIRMS WHAT WE EXPERTS IN THE PRESS HAVE BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG.

IT'S TAXES, STUPID.

AREN'T WE SO SMART?

MATTHEW, TAXES, RIGHT?

>> YEAH.

YEAH.

I WOULD SAY THAT JACK IS POLLING AHEAD OF THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IN TERMS OF WHAT VOTERS OR LIKELY VOTERS THINK, WHO WOULD BETTER MANAGE TAXES IN A VERY HIGH-TAX STATE.

THE PROBLEM FOR CIATTARELLI, THOUGH, IS THAT THESE SAME POLLS, THE POLL THAT YOU MENTIONED AND THE MONMOUTH POLL, SHOW THAT VOTERS -- THAT THE THING AT THE TOP OF THEIR MIND, UNSURPRISINGLY, IS COVID.

IT'S THE PANDEMIC.

AND IN THOSE SAME POLLS, THEY SHOW THAT PHIL MURPHY -- THAT VOTERS ARE MORE ON THE SIDE OF PHIL MURPHY AND WHO THEY TRUST TO, YOU KNOW, CONTINUE TO MANAGE THE CRISIS THAT WE'RE IN.

SO, THAT'S GOING TO BE THE CHALLENGE FOR JACK.

>> COLLEEN, IT'S ALL COVID, ISN'T IT?

I MEAN, EVEN THOUGH TAXES WORK FOR CIATTARELLI, HE'S STILL GOT TO TALK ABOUT COVID AND COVID AS AN ISSUE DOESN'T REALLY WORK FOR HIM.

>> RIGHT, BECAUSE THE POLLS HAVE ALSO SHOWN PEOPLE OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORT VACCINES AND SUPPORT MASKS AND THESE ARE TWO THINGS THAT CIATTARELLI HAS, YOU KNOW, HAS, I GUESS, MURPHY SAID -- USED THE TERM, WIGGLE ROOM, ABOUT.

YOU KNOW, CIATTARELLI IS NOT -- IS TRYING TO HAMMER MURPHY ON THINGS LIKE REQUIRING MASKS OF KIDS IN SCHOOL AND DAY CARE ONCE YOU'RE OVER AGE TWO.

YOU KNOW, NO VACCINE MANDATES.

AND SO, YOU KNOW, MURPHY'S KIND OF HITTING HIM WITH THE WHOLE QUESTION OF SCIENCE AND I HAVEN'T HEARD A GOOD ANSWER YET FROM CIATTARELLI IN TERMS OF WHERE THE SCIENCE -- HOW THE SCIENCE BENEFITS HIM.

>> DUSTIN, THIS POLL, UNLIKE THE MONMOUTH POLL, WAS CONDUCTED AMONG LIKELY VOTERS.

DOES THAT MEAN IT'S MORE LIKELY TO REFLECT THE REAL STATUS OF THE RACE RIGHT NOW?

>> WELL, I DON'T WANT TO BE CAUGHT PROGNOSTICATING, BUT THE REGISTERED VOTERS IS TYPICALLY MORE RELIABLE AND MONMOUTH IS KNOWN AS ONE OF THE GOLD STANDARD POLLS OUT THERE.

>> YEAH.

>> SO, YOU KNOW, THE OTHER THING THAT MONMOUTH SAID WAS THE DIRECTOR, PATRICK MURRAY, IN THE LAST POLL, HE SAID HE COULD SEE THIS NARROWING TO A SINGLE-DIGIT RACE, SO THERE MAY BE SOME MORE STICKING UP BETWEEN MONMOUTH AND STOCKTON AT THIS POINT, BUT AGAIN, 9 POINTS IS STILL A LOT.

>> YEAH.

>> WHAT DO WE GOT, A MONTH TO GO?

YOU KNOW, SO IT'S PLAUSIBLE FOR CIATTARELLI TO NARROW IT BUT HE'S GOT TO REALLY NARROW IT.

I MEAN, 9 POINTS IS THE HIGH END OF THE SINGLE DIGITS.

>> YEAH.

WE SHOULD NOTE THAT -- >> AND I THINK WE HAVE TO REMEMBER -- SORRY.

I WAS JUST GOING TO SAY, I THINK WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY STARTED VOTING, BECAUSE THE VOTE BY MAIL BALLOTS WENT OUT, YOU KNOW, WEEKS AGO.

AND WE'RE GOING TO HAVE EARLY VOTING FOR THE FIRST TIME COMING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH, SO THE CANDIDATES ARE REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO, I MEAN, THEY'RE TRYING TO GET THEIR MESSAGE OUT AND THEY NEED TO.

I THINK EARLIER, JUST BECAUSE YOU DON'T KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE VOTING EARLY.

>> WE SHOULD NOTE THAT THERE'S A LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR'S DEBATE NEXT WEEK.

NOTHING SEEMS TO DISAPPEAR YOU MORE THAN BECOMING LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR.

MATTHEW, WHAT DO WE NEED TO LEARN ABOUT THE LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR CANDIDATES AND/OR WHAT SHOULD THEIR GOAL BE ON DEBATE NIGHT?

>> I FEEL LIKE THE LAST TIME I WAS ON HERE, YOU PRESSED ME ON AN LG QUESTION AND MY POSITION WAS, I DON'T REALLY THINK THE LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR OR THE LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR HOPEFUL MOVES THE NEEDLE.

I WOULD LOVE SOMEBODY TO MAKE A COMPELLING ARGUMENT ABOUT HOW PICKING PERSON X, PICKING PERSON Y, YOU KNOW, REALLY HELPS A CANDIDATE.

I DON'T THINK IT'S ON THE SAME LEVEL AS, YOU KNOW, THE VICE PRESIDENT PICK.

SO, LOOK, WHAT DO I EXPECT TO SEE?

I EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF WHAT WE'VE SEEN LATELY, WHICH IS THAT TEAM MURPHY, SHEILA OLIVER WILL PAINT DIANE ALLEN, FORMER LEGISLA LEGISLATOR, WHO LIKE JACK, WAS A VERY MODERATE LEGISLATOR BECAUSE OF HER DISTRICT.

SHEILA WILL PAINT HER AS THIS TRUMP EXTREMIST AND WE'LL SEE DIANE ALLEN DO THE SAME SORTS OF THINGS WE'VE SEEN JACK DO.

BUT YOU KNOW, IF I'M CALLING INTO QUESTION THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT TUNE INTO THE FIRST GUBERNATORIAL DEBATE, WHICH, IT'S NOT NOTHING.

I GET TO SEE THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO READ OUR STORIES THAT WE POST, AND I CAN SAY THAT, YEAH, BASED OFF THAT, YOU KNOW, AN AVERAGE STORY, YEAH, THERE WAS A LOT OF INTEREST IN THAT.

YOU KNOW, BUT I QUESTION HOW THAT MOVES THE NEEDLE AT ALL.

I DON'T KNOW.

BUT I WOULD LOVE ANYBODY TO ARGUE WITH ME.

>> YEAH, I DON'T THINK YOU'RE GOING TO GET MUCH OF AN ARGUMENT, BUT I MEAN, WE DON'T HAVE A REAL HISTORY OF LIEUTENANT GOVERNORS.

THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN TWO AND SO IT'S A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THAT ROLE IS GOING TO BE, HISTORICALLY, AS WE MOVE FORWARD, BUT SHOULD WE JUDGE THAT PERSON, THEN, DUSTIN, ON THEIR ABILITY TO SHOW BLIND LOYALTY?

>> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION.

BUT THAT'S -- ISN'T THAT WHAT THE JOB IS?

I MEAN, YOU'RE NOT GOING TO GET A LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR WHO'S GOING TO GO, WHEN THE GOVERNOR IS ON VACATION, START ISSUING EXECUTIVE ORDERS OR VETOING LEGISLATION THAT HE SUPPORTS, ALTHOUGH THAT DID HAPPEN, I THINK, IN ONE STATE OUT WEST.

BUT IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN HERE.

>> OUR LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG.

THAT'S ALL THE "ROUNDTABLE" WE CAN FIT IN FOR THE WEEK.

THANKS TO OUR PANEL AND TO ALL OF YOU PARWATCHING.

MICHAEL AARON, THE FOUNDER OF THIS PROGRAM, RECEIVED A LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD IN NEW JERSEY JOURNALISM AT THE FIRST HOPEFULLY ANNUAL BURN CAIN DINNER THIS WEEK.

OBVIOUSLY, WELL DESERVED.

WE WILL SEE MICHAEL HERE ON "ROUNDTABLE" IN A FEW WEEKS.

JUST IN CASE I HAVEN'T PLUGGED THIS ENOUGH, BE SURE TO TUNE INTO OUR ALL IMPORTANT FINAL GUBERNATORIAL DEBATE.

IT IS LIVE TUESDAY OCTOBER 12th AT 8:00 P.M., FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY ONLINE BY A SPECIAL POST-DEBATE EDITION OF "REPORTERS ROUNDTABLE."

LIVE COVERAGE FROM THE SPIN ROOM AND SPECIAL GUESTS.

THAT'S OCTOBER 12th AT 8:00 P.M.

I'M DAVID CRUZ.

FOR EVERYONE OVER HERE, THANKS FOR WATCHING.

WE'LL SEE YOU NEXT TIME.

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