Thanks for joining us this holiday weekend for a special edition, a Correspondents Edition of Off the Record with Chuck Stokes, Zachary Gorchow, Zoe Clark and Bill Ballenger sitting in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in part by Martin Waymire, a full service strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

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And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Thank you very much.

Welcome back to Studio C. We are we are recording on Monday.

So all the major events that happened after 8:00 this morning that you don't hear us talk about on Friday, that's the reason why.

Does that, does that make sense?

Nothing or wait in mashed potatoes?

Exactly.

All right.

So Z, we have new polling data and Joe Biden's not doing too well in Michigan.

Yes.

So this is new polling that we just got over the weekend and it Bernie Porn..., we should say.

I mean, we have been seeing polling over the past few weeks that's really made some headlines, particularly in battleground states.

So I don't think we should be necessarily shocked by this newest polling.

The other thing I will mention is were, what, 359 days or depending on when we're saying, you know, we're taping and counting away from the election.

And what Biden's supporters will say is look back to where Obama was in 12 and that this is not super and similar to where he was and that we still have a year to go and they need to ramp up.

But certainly it is warning signs or red sirens going off, depending on how you want to read it.

6% for Trump, 41% for Mr. Biden.

That's beyond the margin of error.

Z, your numbers said.

Trump is getting his number 46.

You can put it in the book.

He's going to come in somewhere around if it means nominee 47, 48, 49%.

That's going to happen.

Biden has not consolidated his base.

There's a yearning.

Cancel it that it is losing it.

No, no, no.

The Democratic base, he right now, he's not getting the numbers.

He should and he eventually will because there's this yearning among a pretty decent segment of the Democratic Party for someone else.

They're looking at President Biden's age.

They're looking at that kind of center left mode that maybe is a little more center than they'd like and they'd like to see someone new.

But eventually, when if it is Biden versus Trump, eight, nine months from now, they're coming home and we're going to have another close race.

I agree with all that I heard.

I have the utmost respect for Bernie and Epic MRA, but polling is a snapshot in time a year from now.

So many different things can affect this race.

And keep in mind that I think the electorate is not focused in terms of this is definitely Biden.

Definitely against Trump or this is definitely Biden, definitely against Nikki Haley or someone else.

There's still a lot going on over on the GOP side.

They've got to sort it out.

They've got to get through Iowa, all these things.

I think when the public is focused in on here are the two, then I think they start trying to decide who am I for?

Who am, I guess, billing?

The troubling number for the DS is independent voters.

It's it's not even close.

45 to 18 in favor of Mr. Trump, 38%, however, undecided.

Right.

Well, also, does this poll show Haley beating Biden 47/36 Yes.

This is kind of interesting.

Look, independents are obviously unhappy with Biden.

A lot of Democrats are unhappy with Biden.

But again, it's all going to come down to what's it like next year and 2012 and what we just mentioned with Barack Obama behind Mitt Romney at that point by kind of the same kind of margin, Look what happened.

So honestly, this is virtually meaningless.

But pollsters do what they have to do.

I mean, don't you earn a living getting money from people who commission you So for Thanksgiving.

That's right.

We've got nothing going on.

But one thing to remember, Trump has always done better when he's more in the shadows and not out front and the focus of things.

And he is stayed out of the debates here.

Other than the his court situations.

He's generally stayed out of the news.

But if he is the nominee of the Republican Party, which she is right now, it sure looks like, how is he not going to be the nominee?

There will be a full focus on him and all the things coming out of his mouth and all the things coming out of his keyboard.

And that will change the dynamic.

It's just this is just nowhere near close enough to the election to really have a good sense.

That being said, there is Democratic concern about President Biden.

There has been for a long time about whether he's up for another run.

Well, if.

There is a drumstick in this for Mr. Biden, it is the 44% who say they are less likely to vote for Mr. Trump if he's in the slammer, if he's had major convictions.

Now, that's a roll of the dice.

But I mean, you grasp on to whatever you can.

Well.

And that's something that particularly on the GOP side, they're going to have to decide.

And I think a lot of the GOP moderates and those who traditionally have adhered to what are, quote unquote, the GOP is, if he's indicted, they're going to look at a real hard look at this and say, okay, you know, can I really cross that line?

But we do agree that the 32% of Mr. Trump's base will go with him to prison.

I agree.

I agree with.

That.

That's what I can say.

Right.

That that that that group is just going to be there no matter what.

And it's a little different for how Biden is.

Let's bring up another pollster who I always really enjoyed to think about.

His thinking about it is Rich Shuba, who not only will kind of look at these poll numbers, but then look at the enthusiasm.

Right.

And where Democrats and Republicans.

And I think that's also going to be something to really look for, because in 2020, there was so much enthusiasm among Democrats.

I don't know that it was for Biden or was it a vote against Trump.

Right.

And so we'll have to see if if Trump is the candidate as yet again come November 24, do Democrats again come out less about a vote for Biden and more voting against Trump?

Isn't there also some number in there about job approval and Biden?

Yes, but I can't remember.

Yes, it's yeah, it's in the 69.

Well, and that's continuing.

We've seen that.

Oh, but there were some national polling over the weekend that's saying that that looked like Trump and Biden both had somewhere about the, you know, similar.

The Biden people could also take some some relief in the Biden takes the college vote, 49 to 37.

But everybody knows there are more non-college voters than there are college voters.

So this race is not over.

No, no, no, no, no.

And I mean, look, the Democrats would rightly say, hey, how about we look at an actual election, not, you know, another, you know, crystal ball poll kind of thing, which is look back at what happened in November.

Once again, the abortion issue is accruing to the favor of the Democrats.

You know, a county that in Ohio that I believe Trump won by 72%, almost passed the legalization of abortion in Ohio.

And guess what issue Joe Biden will hang around Donald Trump's neck.

Hey, guess who appointed the justices that overturn Roe versus Wade?

Donald Trump's going to have to face that again.

This is so far away.

But that has that's going to have to be litigated in the election.

Biden and the Democrats are already running that ad about whether or not you should be making the choice on your health care.

They're doing it now.

And we haven't even gotten into the serious campaign commercials yet and will there be any kind of debate or does Biden use that against Trump if indeed it turns out to be former President Trump down the stretch who said, I don't need to debate anybody?

Can you can whip that right back on him in the general.

Now, it hasn't happened traditionally, but it's certainly something that he could choose to do.

The other thing we're already seeing some Democratic strategists in certain states like Arizona and other so-called battleground states is trying to put some abortion ballots actually, you know, for for turnout.

Right.

Come November to try to get and see some of what we saw in 2022.

The question you guys are going to love, what does Governor Whitmer said about all of this?

Why for the folks at home that do understand why you're laughing and explain to them why you're laughing?

Well.

She hasn't said squat.

No, she has an energy.

Shouldnt.

She shoudnt.

Yeah, I agree with that.

Why?

Why get into that?

At this point?

It's all up to the resolution to back it up for the letter.

To me, a certainty.

World affairs, domestic affairs.

And as you said, the abortion that has served the Democrats very well in these off year elections coming down the stretch, that could be the one thing we can't keep Biden off.

Sorry, Chuck.

One thing we continue to see are these potential 2028 presidential hopefuls, of which I would include Governor Whitmer as a possibility based on her actions this year.

It's kind of staying in the shadows.

Gavin Newsom But they continue to do things to position themselves to appeal to a national Democratic electorate.

When she goes to China, we know something's up.

Right?

But I will you know, let's remember, she is a co-chair of the Biden presidential campaign.

She quietly has been traveling around the country raising money for that campaign.

So she's definitely putting in the work for President Biden.

I think it's smart for her to keep her mouth shut.

What does she gain by getting it in?

A look at what happened to this congressman from Minnesota who announced he's running in the Democratic primary for president because Joe Biden's not up to his tail.

He's getting like less than the margin of error, because even though Democrats may be frustrated with Biden, in some respects, they don't like Democrats parroting Republican talking points.

So there's no real advantage to some Democrat getting in against Biden right now.

The problem is, once she opens the dialog, the floodgates will open.

It won't just be this question Do you still support Mr. Biden?

The answer is yes.

But there's a ton of follow up questions, and I can hardly wait to get to them to see what she says.

Next point, though, Dean Phillips, the congressman, he before he announced in August, was sort of putting his toe in.

But he was also he's one who kept naming Gretchen Whitmer someone who should every time he would come out and say someone else and they will who are you're talking about like, well, I think Gretchen Whitmer would be great.

And, you know, she obviously didn't.

And so, you know, Dean Phillips is now just sort of that's like, well, if I have to.

Ask too much of a part of the party loyalists right now to look like you're pushing the incumbent president out the way.

And let's face it, she's got youth on her side.

She doesn't have to go this time around.

She can wait another four years or so if she wants to get in there for it.

And three, not 81.

That's right.

Yeah.

There's a big difference.

About about Whitmer is you know and I said this before, she's very smart when it like her political timing is really like and I don't know if it's luck, if it's political acumen, if it's a little bit of both.

But like, let's remember, she waited to run in 2014 when there was a governor, when there was sort of a lot of thought, would she, wouldn't she, when it was a strong year for Snyder and waited four years and then 18, you know, who would have predicted in 14 that that Trump would have been president?

She ran against that in 18.

We saw the, you know, blue wave, the pink wave because of, you know, women, which I still think is such a dumb term.

But anyway, I mean, she then rode in on that.

And so she's always just been very smart and good about knowing when it is her time.

You can look at 2010, there was a big push for her to run for attorney general.

And, you know, I'm sure she had a multitude of reasons, but one of them had to be seen this red wave coming down the pike.

All right.

Let's talk about the US Senate race.

Bernie also had numbers there in a statistical dead heat between Ms.. Slotkin, the Democrat, and Mike Rogers, the Republican.

No surprise there.

No real surprise, although I think the Republicans ought to be heartened.

It seems to be as close as it is.

Doesn't that same poll have it like 40 to 38 over Craig, Slotkin over Craig.

Yes, also close.

Okay.

But they don't put Peter Mayer in.

Well, he was late to the party.

Okay.

It was later to be new.

The poll of polls not only expensive, it's late.

All right.

What I'm saying is I think what the Republicans have to worry about is just the splintered primary.

I don't know how many candidates are going to end up with all together.

They're like eight or ten names out there.

But Meyer and Rogers occupy pretty much the same lane in the party and the right wing of the party.

The Trump sitters despise Meyer, and they're suspicious of Rogers.

And if they can consolidate their support behind some other candidate, i.e.

James Craig, and he ends up squeezing through on the rail with a plurality and he's a nominee, I think the Republicans are toast.

In November of next year.

He's going to be a poor, weak Ford nominee.

It'll be a disaster for the Republicans.

I mean, basically, both sides seem to be getting their bases right now.

There's not great name recognition.

Slotkin is a little better.

She's had the advantage of running for Congress in a district that overlaps three media markets.

So her name recognition is a little better.

But no one really knows who these candidates are yet, what they stand for.

It's going to take time to see what happened.

But I agree with Bill that the Republicans are facing, I think, what looks like a much more complex primary on the Democratic side.

There is Hill Harper is in the race, but his initial fundraising, I don't believe, is harnessing that quote unquote, Hollywood money that maybe was suspected.

We know.

Elissa Slotkin as a fundraising juggernaut, and right now Hill Harper does not have the money to compete.

The word on Hill Harper unconfirmed and rumor mills, which in this town thrives on, is why does this guy run for Congress?

Yeah, I've heard the same thing.

And he heard.

It.

Yes.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Well, what's the buzz in Detroit?

Well, there is there.

And he might have had a better shot at that thing, but.

But he probably waited a little too late right now to be.

It's never too late.

Well, you know, reconsiders Congress, small potatoes.

If I'm going to get into politics, I'm going big time.

You do?

Do you want to use the potatoes or do you want to look at them on the table?

He's going to end up looking at them.

Well, that's my point.

But one thing that I think is potentially hurting him is that he didn't do it like the person he really admires in this former President Barack Obama.

Barack Obama went in to Chicago.

He worked his way up.

He did grassroot community stuff.

He got in to the state legislature, then got into Congress, then got to the Senate.

Now granted him and stay in any of those places.

So, you know, he was like, John Kennedy, let's move, move, move, and let's move fast.

But he did it those ways to give him credibility.

He'll harper right now, his credibility.

He is bright, intelligent, well-educated Hollywood star.

You have improving your political links.

So which one of the two seats down there does he run for?

If he were to think about getting in through Canada or mostly?

Well, I would say three.

Canada is his best shot, but he's got opposition there because you've got a former state legislator who's gone in there and he's he's.

Able to get.

Endorsements.

He is just I mean, he's coming out with a laundry list of endorsements and he's taken the fight to Canada.

He's got a much tougher race over on the other side.

In.

In the money races.

And he's working very hard to make sure that the African-American community stays solidified between him And don't get somebody else like Hill Harper in this race, which could hurt me.

And that message is resonating.

That's the reason that Canada got the nomination in the first place.

He had five blacks who split the vote.

So if you've got only a final head on, head with Canada and all of a sudden Hill enters the race, that's not good.

I think probably either one of them would still be tainted.

Ah, that's why we'll see.

Mary Waters At-Large, member of the Detroit City Council, is apparently circulating petitions to run against Sri Tanna DA That's the race where Adam Holliday is running.

And again, that street handed out, won the Democratic primary with something like 25% of the vote.

So, you know, the more the merrier.

Candidates as far as Sri Canada is.

Concerned and waiting out there in the wings, which could throw a monkey wrench into a whole lot of the especially in the Detroit area, is what do the judges say on this redistricting case?

Oh, yeah, that could come in late December.

That is huge drops in.

All of a sudden, we see a change in math.

As I say, and Monty Python now something completely different.

I mean, that would really throw things into.

Yeah.

But on the other hand, has nothing to do with congressional districts in the state Senate.

So the congresswoman got thrown out.

Now, if the decision comes out, pro plaintiffs, the people challenging the maps, then I think you're going to see real fast the suit again on Congress saying, hey, if these are mail apportioned at the state house and state Senate, so is and it just point out that the same people did both districts.

Exactly.

Yeah.

All right.

Peter Meyer, did he make a splash with his announcement?

I mean.

Okay.

Thank you.

Go to a reporter.

This was sort of my hesitation.

I mean, it was sort of this thing like we kind of knew it was coming.

We kind of knew it was coming.

You know, it wasn't like a big, huge shock.

I mean, maybe the biggest surprise was just kind of the joke.

And the similarity between is the logo and the light years to play.

We are really sure there is no.

I mean.

What happened to Thrifty Acres in Michigan?

There's no Congressman Kroger out there.

No, I don't think anybody was necessarily shocked.

But I think I also took a pause because he's got some serious work to do.

Right.

Like as we've talked about, we already know that the money game is going to be split.

Basically between him and Mike Rogers, albeit, you know, Myers comes from the Meyer fortune and will have some of his own.

He's going to have to dip into that family fortune.

He's got a source excuse me, but one of the major funders, if you know who you are.

Okay.

He said basically we're we're behind Mike Rogers.

Okay.

Peter Meier is not moving the needle or going after Rogers.

The National Senate Republican Committee don't like.

MEYER No, they told me.

They said we want Rogers.

We're surprised if you get it, we're going to knock you out.

I was going to say is the head winds up here.

And I mean, again, let's also put this in the context that it's like the Michigan Republican Party and but then there's this tweet that apparently was from an intern, because when in doubt, blame the intern, apparently at.

Ford.

And in Michigan, Republican Party unpaid, probably or they have to actually pay the it's.

Denigrating.

Saying that, you know this party was not for Meyer you know he's going to have to continue and will and did on this program continue to talk about, you know, how he voted for the impeachment of Trump, but he then also would vote for Trump if Trump is the presidential.

I mean, and.

It should be on the ballot if he thinks if he thinks that's going to deliver a.

Strong endorsement, I mean, really a lot of baggage.

Why didn't this guy run for Congress again?

Well, the same thing.

He wasn't going to win.

He's in he you know, he's in a difficult position.

He cast a vote.

He's got to get.

T he cast a vote of conscience to vote to impeach President Trump at end of his political career.

I mean, it's just I mean, he's running it, so it's not over, I guess.

But he can't.

I it's very hard to see how he comes out of a Republican primary now.

But he's still even though he sounds more middle of the road, in no way is he someone that Democrats are going to embrace.

And, you know, look, there's a Democrat there named Hillary Scullion who seems to be doing quite well.

The district is favorable for her.

And he wasn't he was probably neither going to get nominated.

And even if he did get nominated, he wasn't going to win.

So he's looking for some path.

And a statewide path is the one that's probably most attainable to someone perceived as an anti-Trump Republican, because if he does do what he hasn't done in the past, which is tap the family fortune to run, it gives him a path in a, you know, expensive state to try to drown Mike Rogers and spend.

Wouldn't you love to be a fly on the wall at Thanksgiving in the Meyer family?

Okay.

As we're passing the The Cranberries, you know, we need a little money for Peter.

What are we going to do here, folks?

Are they going to open their wallets or not?

Well, you just told us.

No idea.

He never funds he controls is what he has available.

Yeah.

I mean, he's got Meyer money now and he's got I mean, I can't see the family turning against him now.

There may be close associates of the family who traditionally would have maybe not have donated to Rogers, and now they're stuck in there.

I wonder if he made a real strategic mistake.

He should have gotten in there before Rogers and.

And that and now.

Because they are splitting up the same voters and I think you have Rogers out of the race.

Yeah because he will look and say this is going to be a lot of money and let's not go for it.

But he let Rogers.

Lead them to the point sort of take the narrative of that I'm the man.

I've got to do it now.

Yeah.

And I mean, you know, going back to in theory like Meyer should sort of be the perfect candidate, right?

Like self-funded, he's a vet, took this vote of conscience on the floor.

But in.

A general election.

That's exactly what I was going to say.

I'm sorry, but, you know, I got I know.

It was an original point.

But, you know, you just you can't get through Republican primaries right now like that, particularly if there's a kind of a twinsy who is also running.

But in theory, you know, if you just threw him right in the general.

Yeah.

He said something interesting on the program because we asked about the Trump vote.

He is thinking that there are disaffected, disinfected would be the word no disinfectant.

Trumpers who are concerned about this guy who are available there possibility and he thinks he could appeal to them.

But what percentage of that 32% is that?

I think it's a small percentage, isn't it?

Percentage.

And look, if Meyer had run for reelection in 92 as the nominee got beat in the primary, I don't think it's a guarantee he'd have to see right now that that scene was changed for Congress.

That seat was changed from 91.

He wanted to 92 from a slightly Republican seat to a slightly Democratic seat.

I asked him a question.

I said, Why don't you run against Hillary Scott?

He said, I can't win that, because what he told me is Mike Mike Rogers concerned he's ignoring this.

Well, he said, I'm focusing on other stuff.

You know, his first fundraising report, I don't think like totally wowed people.

I mean, it wasn't terrible.

But I think he has to be concerned because if the unknown here is Trump and if he makes an endorsement, James Craig is gunning for that endorsement.

He did not get it for governor last time, which suggests Trump maybe sees some flaws there.

But if Trump looks at this since well, I'm sure it's certainly not backing Peter Meyer and I'm going to do whatever I can to beat him.

We know there's some maybe some friction there between the Rogers and the Trump world wasn't true, right?

Yeah, it didn't go well in the beginning.

So Trump says, well, James Craig is the one who's kissing the ring the most and he endorses James Craig.

It's I don't know if I want to say game, set, match, but it's going to be really hard for anybody to beat James Craig.

Chuck, James.

Craig.

Is he home making phone calls?

What is he doing?

I haven't heard that.

He's doing a heck of a lot of work.

And miles away, years ago, he.

Was still trying to figure out what his who his base is.

It would have to be the MAGA crowd.

It is not African-Americans and it's not African Americans in Detroit.

They know him and they know him well.

They liked him as police chief.

And when he made that leap over the politics that same love didn't go along with them.

I think they saw a totally different James Craig.

And they look now and they say, whoa, that's not the James Craig we thought we were supporting.

Thank you.

One of the things I'm thankful for is the four of you in the 20 or so other reporters that do this show thing.

Otherwise, we got another right thing.

Everybody have a blessed holiday.

We'll be back with more off the record next week and we'll see you on the other side.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in part by Martin Waymire, a full service strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at martinwaymire.com.

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Michigan public television stations have contributed to the production costs of Off the Record.