GAUTAM: I AM GAUTAM MUKUNDA.

TONIGHT ON "GREATER BOSTON."

ON THE HEELS OF TRIPS TO ISRAEL, HAMAS IN THE WEST BANK, PULITZER PRIZE-WINNING JOURNALIST TOM FRIEDMAN JOINS US TO DISCUSS ABOUT WHERE THE REGIONS ARE HEADED AND THE ROLE THE U.S. SHOULD PLAY.

LESS, WHERE THE U.S. AND CHINA STAND AFTER PRESIDENT XI'’S VISIT.

ISRAELI FORCES HAVE BEEN INSIDE GAZA'’S MAIN HOSPITAL FOR TWO DAYS AS PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU AND HIS MILITARY COME UNDER PRESSURE TO RELEASE PROOF OF WHAT THEY SAY IS A HAMAS COMMAND AND CONTROL CENTER IN UNDERGROUND TUNNELS THERE.

PRESIDENT BIDEN AGREES WITH ISRAEL.

PRES.

BIDEN: THE FIRST WAR CRIMES COMMITTED BY HAMAS BY HAVING THEIR HEADQUARTERS, THEIR MILITARY HIDDEN UNDER HOSPITAL, THAT IS A FACT.

THAT IS WHAT HAPPENS.

GAUTAM: BATTLES RAGE ACROSS THE GAZA STRIP AND THE AUTHORITY PUTS THE DEATH TOLL AT MORE THAN 11,000.

PROTESTERS AND THE U.N.

CALL FOR A CEASE-FIRE.

AFTER WITNESSING CARNAGE FIRSTHAND AFTER A TRIP TO ISRAEL AND THE WEST BANK TOM FRIEDMAN ASKED THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO COME UP WITH A TWO STATE SOLUTION FOR INDIGENOUS PEOPLES LIVING IN AREAS OF GAZA, THE WEST BANK AND ISRAEL.

IT APPEARS THE PRESIDENT MIGHT AGREE.

PRES.

BIDEN: I MADE IT CLEAR TO THE ISRAELIS, TO BIBI AND HIS WAR CABINET, THE ONLY ANSWER HERE IS A TWO STATE SOLUTION.

BUT I AM NOT A FORTUNE TELLER, I CANNOT TELL YOU HOW LONG IT WILL LAST.

BUT I DO NOT THINK IT ENDS UNTIL THERE IS A TWO STATE SOLUTION.

GAUTAM: TOM FRIEDMAN JOINS ME TO DISCUSS.

WHAT DID YOU SEE IN ISRAEL?

TOM: I SAW A COUNTRY I HAD NEVER BEEN TO BEFORE, HAVE NOT VISITED SINCE I WAS 15 AND I AM NOW 70.

IT WAS A TRAUMATIZED COUNTRY.

IN THE MOST IMPORTANT WAY FOR PURPOSES OF THIS ANALYSIS, A COUNTRY THAT HAD BEEN SHRUNKEN.

THE ATTACK BY HAMAS ON ISRAELI BORDER TOWNS, VILLAGES, KIBBUT ZIM ADJACENT TO GAZA HAD DRIVEN THOUSANDS OF ISRAELIS TO LEAVE FOR FEAR THE GOVERNMENT COULD NOT PROTECT THEM AND AT THE SAME TIME ATTACKS BY HEZBOLLAH IN LEBANON FROM THE NORTH IN SUPPORT OF HAMAS, NOT INVASIONS BUT ATTACKS, PROMPTED ISRAEL TO ORDER AN EVACUATION FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER.

YOU HAD TWO ATTACKS SHRINKING THE COUNTRY, PULLING PEOPLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE.

I VISITED ONE OF THE KIBBUTZUM THAT HAD BEEN ATTACKED BY HAMAS AND THEIR ENTIRE COMMUNITY OF 700 HAD BEEN MOVED TO A HOTEL IN THE DEAD SEA READ THAT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE FOR ANY STATE,.

YOU HAVE TWO ENEMIES SHRINKING THE COUNTRY.

GAUTAM: THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT HAS TO BE THINKING HOW LONG THEY CAN KEEP 300,000 RESERVES MOBILIZED.

DO THEY HAVE A SENSE THERE IS A TICKING CLOCK AND HOW MUCH TIME IS LEFT?

TOM: THERE IS A TICKING CLOCK.

I HEARD A DIFFERENT SET OF TIME FRAMES.

GALLANT TALKED ABOUT A PROJECT THAT WOULD TAKE THEM THROUGH GAZA CITY WHICH NOW IT HAS TAKE INTO KHAN YOUNIS AND THE BORDER WITH EGYPT.

SOME SAY THERE ARE ONLY THREE MORE WEEKS, WE WILL STAY NORTH OF GAZA, TAKING ON THE HAMAS LEADERSHIP TO THE SOUTH.

THERE WAS NOT IN THE TIME I WAS THERE A SENSE OF HOW MUCH TIME THEY HAD OR WHAT THE ULTIMATE GOAL WOULD BE, OTHER THAN DESTROYING HAMAS.

GAUTAM: DESTROYING HAMAS WITHOUT A YEARS LONG OCCUPATION OF THE GAZA STRIP SEEMS AN IMPOSSIBILITY.

WHAT IS IT THEY ARE LOOKING FOR TO GET OUT OF THIS?

TOM: THERE IS NO CONSISTENT PRESENTATION OF THAT.

YOU HEARD PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU LAST WEEKEND SAYING THERE WOULD BE NO PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY FROM THE WEST BANK TAKING OVER GAZA, IT WILL REMAIN UNDER ISRAELI CONTROL FOR PERPETUITY.

GIVEN THE FACT ISRAEL IS ALSO CONTROLLING 3 MILLION PALESTINIANS IN THE WEST BANK AND 2 MILLION MORE IN GAZA, YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT 7 MILLION JEWS CONTROLLING 5 MILLION PALESTINIANS.

IT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE.

HAVING THAT CONVERSATION, WE NEED TO KNOW HOW THIS WAR ENDS AND WHEN.

GAUTAM: WARS CAN GO ON FOR A VERY LONG TIME.

WHAT IS ISRAELI SOCIETY GOING TO LOOK LIKE AFTER THREE OR SIX MONTHS OF THIS?

TOM: ONE OF MY CONCERNS ALL ALONG HAS BEEN BUILT ON RESEARCH BY AN ISRAELI ECONOMIST WHO ARGUES ISRAEL IS A COUNTRY OF 7 MILLION BUT THERE ARE 400,000 IN KEY POSITIONS OF ECONOMICS AND RESEARCH, MEDICINE, TECHNOLOGY, MILITARY.

THEY ARE THE ONES WHO DRIVE THE WHOLE BUS, THOSE 400,000.

I BELIEVE ONE OF THE OVERT OR TACIT GOALS OF HEZBOLLAH AND HAMAS IS TO GET THOSE 400,000 TO LEAVE.

BECAUSE THEY ARE TALENTED PEOPLE, MANY WITH DUAL PASSPORTS, THAT IS BY DESIGN.

NETANYAHU IS TRYING TO DO IT BY DEFAULT, PUSHING FOR A JUDICIAL COUP, BY GIVING RIDICULOUS AMOUNTS OF MONEY TO ULTRAORTHODOX PARTIES THAT DO NOT TEACH THEIR KIDS MATH, SCIENCE OR DEMOCRATIC CIVICS, BY FUNDING MORE SETTLEMENT OF THE WEST BANK AND CREATING CONFLICT AND TENSION THERE.

HE IS ALSO ERODING A NUMBER OF THOSE KEY 400,000 THAT MAKES A DIFFERENCE.

THAT IS WHAT I WORRY ABOUT.

IT IS A SMALL COUNTRY, SMALL TIP OF THE SPEAR.

THAT IS A LONG-TERM THREAT.

GAUTAM: THE DEBATE IS WIDER, WITH NETANYAHU FACING DIRECT CRITICISM IN FRONT OF ISRAELI SOCIETY, AND THERE IS NOT A LOT IN THE U.S. THAT DOES NOT SEEM SUSTAINABLE, HIS WAR LEADERSHIP RUNNING AT 10% OR 15% IN THE ISRAELI POLLS.

WILL WE SEE TURNOVER IN THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT AND SUPPORT IN THE U.S.?

TOM: I WOULD SAY THERE IS SUPPORT FOR THE WAR AGAINST HAMAS AND GETTING REVENGE FOR THE KILLING OF 1200 ISRAELI CITIZENS, SOLDIERS, THE ABDUCTION.

THAT IS BROADLY SUPPORTED.

WHAT IS NOT IS WHO WILL LEAD THE COUNTRY THE MORNING AFTER.

ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN IN ISRAEL THE PAST FEW WEEKS WILL TELL YOU THERE IS A WELLING ANGER, WAITING TO EXPLODE AGAINST NETANYAHU IF AND WHEN WRITING STOPS, IF AND WHEN THE 400,000 RESERVISTS RETURN.

NETANYAHU IS A DEFT POLITICIAN.

I THINK YOU WILL SEE AN EXPLOSION OF RAGE DIRECTED AT HIM AND HIS CABINET.

PEOPLE LIKE THE JUSTICE MINISTER WHO FORCED THROUGH THIS JUDICIAL COUP AT A TIME WHEN THE SECURITY SERVICE, MILITARY INTELLIGENCE, ARMY LEADERSHIP SAID, YOU'’RE BREAKING THE ARMY BECAUSE WE HAVE PILOTS WHO REFUSED TO FLY FOR A DICTATORSHIP.

HAMAS AND HEZBOLLAH ARE NOTICING IT, TALKING ABOUT IT.

THEY ARE SEEING US AS VULNERABLE.

WHEN THE COMMISSION OF INQUIRY HAPPENS AFTER THIS WAR, THAT WILL COME OUT PROMINENTLY.

I DO NOT KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO NETANYAHU.

I BELIEVE HE IS THE WORST LEADER IN ISRAELI HISTORY, POSSIBLY IN JEWISH HISTORY.

HE FRACTURED ISRAEL AT EXACTLY THE WRONG TIME.

FOR MY MONEY, THE SOONER HE LEAVES THE POLITICAL SCENE, THE MORE CHANCE ISRAEL CAN COME TOGETHER AS HIS WHOLE STYLE OF LEADERSHIP, HE AND TRUMP ARE BROTHERS FROM DIFFERENT MOTHERS.

IT IS DIVIDE AND RULE, TRY TO WIN BY 50.0001%.

DIVIDE, DIVIDE, RELIGIOUS FROM SECULAR, THAT HAS BEEN HIS WHOLE APPROACH SINCE HE BEGAN, AND IT HAS DONE TERRIBLE DAMAGE TO ISRAELI SOCIETY AND POLITICS.

GAUTAM: ON THE PALESTINIAN SIDE, KILLING AND THE GAZA STRIP IS GETTING WORSE BY THE DAY.

ARE WE STARTING TO SEE FRAYING AMONG HAMAS RANKS?

ANY SENSE THEY ARE REACHING OUT FOR NEGOTIATIONS?

TOM: GOOD QUESTION.

THERE IS SO LITTLE OF THAT KIND OF REPORTING.

IT DOES APPEAR ISRAEL HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF GAZA CITY.

THERE IS GAZA CITY UP TO THE GAZA RIVER, THEN SOUTH AN AREA OF REFUGEE CAMPS, A HUGE NUMBER, HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS AND MAYBE A MILLION REFUGEES.

THEN THE THIRD PART CLOSER TO THE EGYPTIAN BORDER IS KHAN YOUNIS WHERE HAMAS LEADERSHIP IS BELIEVED TO BE HIDING.

THE QUESTION IS FOR ISRAEL, DO YOU GO ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTH, TRY TO DO TO KHAN YOUNIS WHAT YOU DID TO GAZA CITY?

BY THE WAY, THAT WOULD BE TRAGIC.

THE CITY IS UNINHABITABLE.

WHAT WOULD YOU DO WITH REFUGEES IN BETWEEN?

THAT IS WHY YOU SEE THIS SLOW DOWN.

THERE IS TALK OF AN IMMINENT HOSTAGE EXCHANGE, BUT WE HAVE HEARD THAT FOR DAYS.

I AM SURE ISRAEL HAS MADE A LOT OF MISTAKES AND WILL REFLECT ON THIS FOR A LONG TIME, BUT NO ONE HAS MADE A BIGGER MISTAKE THAN HAMAS LEADERSHIP THAT EXPOSED ITSELF AND THE PALESTINIAN CAUSE, AND MOST OF ALL THE CIVILIANS OF GAZA TO AN ISRAELI RETALIATION THAT WAS EXPECTED, PREDICTABLE, AND IT HAS BEEN A TRAGEDY FOR THE PEOPLE OF GAZA, WHO HAVE AS MUCH BEEN TAKEN HOSTAGE BY HAMAS ALL THESE YEARS AS HAMAS HAS TAKEN HOSTAGES FROM ISRAEL.

GAUTAM: THE SITUATION ON THE GAZA STRIP IS THE WORSE -- WORST, BUT ALSO ON THE WEST BANK THERE IS PRESSURE ON PALESTINIANS.

DO WE SEE THAT CONTINUING?

HOW BAD IS IT LIKELY TO GET?

IS THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT GOING TO STOP IT?

TOM: THERE ARE SETTLERS TRYING TO CREATE A CONFLICT WITH PALESTINIANS IN HOPES OF WIDESPREAD VIOLENCE TO GET ISRAEL TO PUSH THEM OUT, AND ACROSS TO JORDAN.

THAT SOUNDS PERVERSE, BUT IT IS THEIR AGENDA.

IT IS WORRYING TO ME HOW THAT WILL BE QUELLED.

THESE ARE NETANYAHU'’S BASE, HIS HOPE OF STAYING IN POWER IS BY DEPENDING ON THESE RADICAL SETTLER JEWISH SUPREMACIST GROUPS.

AMERICAN JEWS DO NOT UNDERSTAND, YOU DID NOT GO TO SUMMER CAMP WITH THESE PEOPLE, THEY WERE NOT IN THE CABIN NEXT YOU, OR ON YOUR BIRTHRIGHT TOUR.

THESE ARE RADICAL EXTREMIST, JEWISH SUPREMACIST WHO LOOK LIKE THEY WALKED OUT OF THE SECOND TEMPLE.

THEY ARE DANGEROUS.

THERE ARE ALSO HAMAS ELEMENTS IN THE WEST BANK.

THERE IS NO LOVEFEST THERE.

IT IS ALL HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND I HAVE NO IDEA HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT.

GAUTAM: THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR ISRAEL WOULD BE MORE INVOLVEMENT FROM HEZBOLLAH OR IRAN.

WHAT ARE WE SEEING IN EFFORTS TO STOP THE WAR FROM SPREADING?

TOM: EVERYTHING CHANGES DAY TODAY BUT WHAT HAS BEEN INTERESTING IS, AFTER INTENSE BACK-AND-FORTH BETWEEN ISRAEL AND HEZBOLLAH AND HEZBOLLAH LETTING HAMAS ELEMENTS INTO SOUTHERN LEBANON REFUGEE CAMPS HIGHER ROCKETS AND DRONES AT ISRAEL.

THE LAST 48 HOURS HAVE CALMED DO WN.

THERE IS A SENSE THAT IRAN DOES NOT WANT TO EXPOSE ITS HEZBOLLAH A SECOND STRIKE CAPABILITY TO COMPLETE DEVASTATION BY ISRAEL, AND WILL KEEP THIS UNDER CONTROL.

WE HAVE TWO AMERICAN AIRCRAFT CARRIERS IN THE REGION, THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AND ONE GETTING POSITIONED IN THE PERSIAN GULF NEAR IRAN.

IRAN HAS FOUR AIRCRAFT CARRIERS.

HEZBOLLAH, HOUTHIS, HAMAS, AND SHIITE MILITIAS IN IRAQ.

THESE ARE ALL PLATFORMS AND IRAN USES THEM TO PROJECT POWER IN THE REGION.

IN ITS LARGER GOAL OF DRIVING AMERICA AND WESTERN INFLUENCE OUT.

THE POINT I HAVE BEEN MAKING SINCE THE START OF THE WAR, YOU LOOK AT THIS FROM 30,000 FEET, UKRAINE WAS TRYING TO JOIN THE WEST AND ISRAEL WAS TRYING TO JOIN THE EAST IN THE SENSE OF NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH SAUDI ARABIA, WHICH WOULD HAVE BEEN A GIANT CHANGE IN THE REGION, BIG IF NOT BIGGER THAN THE EGYPTIAN-ISRAELI PEACE CAMP.

IRAN IS TRYING TO PREVENT ISRAEL FROM JOINING THE EAST.

NOW IRAN AND RUSSIA ARE FUSED AS PARTNERS IN BOTH PROJECTS IN MANY WAYS.

GAUTAM: THANK YOU.

I WANT TO TURN TO ANOTHER DECADES-OLD CONFLICT.

MORE THAN A YEAR AND A HALF SINCE RUSSIA LAUNCHED ITS BRUTAL ASSAULT ON UKRAINE.

WHILE FIGHTING HAS MADE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET AN ACCURATE COUNT, THE DEATH TOLL IS IN THE TENS OF THOUSANDS AT LEAST.

RUSSIA HAS CAPTURED SMALL SWATHS OF THE COUNTRY, BUT UKRAINIANS HAVE RECLAIMED MORE THAN HALF.

FOREIGN AID HAS PLAYED A ROLE, BUT THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF AMMUNITION.

AMERICAN POLITICS ARE THREATENING TO DISRUPT THE FLOW OF AID.

THE U.S. HAS DIRECTED $75 BILLION TO UKRAINE SINCE THE INVASION AND BIDEN IS CALLING FOR OVER $60 BILLION MORE BUT REPUBLICANS ARE HOLDING OFF ON THE PROPOSAL.

THE CHANCES IT WILL PASS THIS YEAR ARE GROWING SLIMMER BY THE DAY.

WHAT HAPPENS TO UKRAINE IF WE DO NOT PASS THIS AID PROPOSAL?

TOM: PUTIN IS SALIVATING, BASICALLY.

HE HAS A CALENDAR ON HIS DESK.

ONE IS THE DATE OF THE 2024 ELECTION IN AMERICA WHERE HE HOPES DONALD TRUMP WILL WIN AND PULL THE PLUG ON UKRAINE ENTIRELY.

AND HE IS LOOKING AT OUR LEGISLATIVE CALENDAR AND HOPING CONGRESS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AGREE ON THE ECONOMIC OR MILITARY ELEMENTS OF THIS NEXT UKRAINE SECURITY PACKAGE.

ADMINISTRATION PEOPLE THINK IF THEY CAN GET THE MILITARY SIDE THROUGH, UKRAINE WILL HAVE ENOUGH WEAPONRY TO GET THROUGH THE NEXT YEAR AND TO THE U.S. ELECTION.

THEY WILL HAVE TO SCRAMBLE ON THE ECONOMIC SIDE, BUT AT LEAST COULD GET THE MILITARY THROUGH.

IF THEY CAN'’T, UKRAINE WILL BE VERY VULNERABLE.

NOT ONLY A TRAGEDY FOR UKRAINE IN ITS EFFORTS TO RECOVER ITS TERRITORY FROM THIS SAVAGE INVASION BY RUSSIA, BUT JUST A TRAGEDY FOR AMERICAN POWER IN THE WORLD.

THAT WE SUPPORTED THIS COUNTRY THEN SUDDENLY WALKED AWAY.

THAT WOULD BE REALLY AWFUL.

GAUTAM: THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HISTORICALLY HAS BEEN MOST HOSTILE TOWARD RUSSIAN POWER AND INFLUENCE, AND THOSE MOST HAWKISH ON THE WAR IN ISRAEL ARE MOST RELUCTANT TO BACK UKRAINE ON ITS WAR.

WHAT IS GOING ON?

WHY HAS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY DECIDED TO BE MORE FRIENDLY TO RUSSIA THAN IN THE PAST?

TOM: THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS I AM KNOWLEDGEABLE ABOUT, BUT THE CRAZINESS OF THE REPUBLICAN IS NOT ONE OF THEM.

IT DOES NOT MAKE SENSE.

IT IS NOT GROWING OUT OF A STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF OUR PRIORITIES, HOW TO MATCH THOSE ENDS WITH OUR MEANS.

IT SEEMS TO BE DRIVEN BY AN INTRA-REPUBLICAN FIGHT OVERSPENDING, USING THAT AS A PROXY TO MANIFEST CONSERVATISM.

NONE OF IT IS CONNECTED TO THE WORLD.

IT IS TRAGIC THERE IS NOT A CORE OF THE OLD REPUBLICAN PARTY THAT UNDERSTANDS WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

IF UKRAINE COULD SUCCEED, AND I DO NOT THINK THEY WILL DRIVE RUSSIA OUT, BUT IF WE COULD PUT IT IN A POSITION TO HAVE A DEAL WITH RUSSIA, WHERE UKRAINE COULD END UP IN THE EUROPEAN UNION WITH SOME KIND OF NATO GUARANTEE, THAT WOULD BE THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN EUROPE IN TERMS OF ENLARGING THE WEST SINCE EAST GERMANY JOINED WEST GERMANY.

UKRAINE HAS THE BIGGEST MOST EXPERIENCED LAND ARMY IN EUROPE, HAS A BIG BREADBASKET AND PRODUCES MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF ENGINEERS.

AN INCREDIBLY TALENTED COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF TECHNOLOGY AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP.

YOU ADD THAT TO THE WEST, THAT IS BIGGER THAN EAST GERMANY JOINING WEST GERMANY.

WHO WAS THE KGB CHIEF IN EAST GERMANY WHEN IT FELL?

I THINK IT WAS A GUY NAMED VLADIMIR PUTIN.

HE SEES A RERUN AND THAT IS WHAT HE IS TRYING TO SELL.

GAUTAM: FROM THE UKRAINIAN SIDE, WHAT IS THEIR PERSPECTIVE ON THE AMERICAN POLITICAL DEBATE?

TOM: I WAS IN UKRAINE THREE MONTHS AGO.

THEY CANNOT MAKE HEADS OR TAILS OUT OF US MORE THAN ANYBODY ELSE RIGHT NOW.

THEY ARE HOPING AND PRAYING WE WILL COME THROUGH FOR THEM.

THERE IS AN UNDERSTANDINGIN THE -- UNDERSTANDING IN THE UKRAINIAN UNDERSTANDING THAT THERE IS A LIMIT TO WHAT THE WEST CAN GIVE UKRAINE.

SO THERE WILL HAVE TO BE A DIRTY DEAL.

BUT IN UKRAINIAN POLITICS IT IS SO OFF THE TABLE TO SAY THAT PUBLICLY.

SOME MILITARY LEADER RECENTLY DID THAT AND FACED BLOWBACK.

EVENTUALLY UKRAINE HAS TO HAVE THAT DISCUSSION.

WE HAVE TO HAVE THAT DISCUSSION WITH UKRAINE.

WE WANT THEM TO HAVE THAT DISCUSSION FROM A POSITION OF STRENGTH, NOT FROM WEAKNESS.

GAUTAM: WHAT MIGHT THE DEAL LOOK LIKE?

TOM: NO ONE KNOWS, BUT RUSSIAN -- RUSSIA WOULD PROBABLY KEEP ALL OR PART OF THE DONBASS.

THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION OF ACCESS TO THE SEA THAT WILL HAVE TO BE RESOLVED BUT SOMETHING ALONG THOSE LINES.

UKRAINIANS SEEM TO HAVE MADE PROGRESS IN THE SOUTH.

WHO KNOWS.

YOU HOPE THEY CAN GET THE BEST DEAL THEY CAN AND PUT THIS WAR BEHIND THEM.

PUTIN MAY HAVE ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD, CERTAINLY TIME TO WAIT FOR DONALD TRUMP TO DO THE DEAL HE WANTS.

GAUTAM: ARE THERE ANY FEELERS ON THE RUSSIAN SIDE?

TOM: GOOD QUESTION.

NONE THAT I KNOW OF.

I DO NOT THINK ANYONE WANTS TO DO IT YET, FROM ANY POSITION OF WEAKNESS, TO APPROACH THEM AT A TIME IT LOOKS LIKE UKRAINE WILL NOT GET AMERICAN MILITARY AID.

I COULD SEE THAT HAPPENING IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS IF WE CAN POSITION UKRAINE TO HAVE A STRONGER BARGAINING POSITION.

GAUTAM: A CALIFORNIA SUMMIT BETWEEN PRESIDENT BIDEN AND CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING HAS LED TO ONE DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH.

PANDAS COULD BE ON THEIR WAY BACK TO THE U.S.

BUT WHAT ELSE COULD COME AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS?

THE PANDAS ARE CLEARLY THE MOST IMPORTANT THING.

[LAUGHTER] WHAT ELSE CAN WE EXPECT FROM THE SUMMIT?

TOM: I THINK THEY HAVE PUT A FLOOR UNDER THE DETERIORATION IN U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS THAT HAS BEEN GOING ON SINCE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IN THE AREA OF TRADE.

I NEVER BELIEVED TRUMP WAS THE AMERICAN PRESIDENT AMERICANS DESERVED, BUT THE AMERICAN PRESIDENT CHINA DESERVED.

THERE NEEDED TO BE SOMEONE WHO PUSHED BACK ON CHINA IN THE TRADE REALM THAT WE HAD PUT UP WITH TOO MUCH FOR TOO LONG.

TOO MANY CASES WHERE CHINA WAS NOT FULFILLING ITS TRADE OBLIGATIONS UNDER THE WTO'’S AND DISADVANTAGING COMPANIES.

HOW DID YOU LOSE THE BIGGEST, MOST POWERFUL, FREE, PRO-CHINA LOBBY IN AMERICA, WHICH WAS THE AMERICAN BUSINESS COMMUNITY?

THEY GOT FED UP.

THEY BEGAN TO LEAVE, DOWNSIZE CHINA OPERATIONS.

THAT WAS A REAL LOSS FOR CHINA, A POLICY FAILURE.

AT THE SAME TIME, ITS MORE AGGRESSIVE FOREIGN POLICY AND CLOSURE UNDER XI WAS ALIENATING CHINA'’S NEIGHBORS.

OUR ALLIES, VIETNAM, THE PHILIPPINES, SOUTH KOREA, JAPAN, INDONESIA, AUSTRALIA.

CHINA'’S BEHAVIOR WAS ISOLATING IT AND DRIVING PEOPLE INTO OUR ARMS.

I THINK WE HAVE REACHED A BOTTOM AND PUT IN A FLOOR.

THAT IS WHAT THE SUMMIT WAS ABOUT.

THEY RESUMED MILITARY TO MILITARY DISCUSSIONS.

I AM SURE THERE WILL BE ECONOMIC THINGS THAT COME OUT OF THIS.

I THINK THAT IS A GOOD THING.

I WISH PRESIDENT XI AND BIDEN WOULD SPEAK ONCE A MONTH ON THE PHONE.

WE ARE TWO BIG COUNTRIES.

NEITHER CAN FULLY REALIZE OUR POTENTIAL WITHOUT THE OTHER.

I AM GLAD WE FOUND A FLOOR.

FROM CHINA'’S POINT OF VIEW, I DO NOT THINK THEY CAN REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL WITH SO MANY CHINESE ENTREPRENEURS, YOUNG PEOPLE, VOTING WITH THEIR FEET, LOOKING TO GET OUT.

THAT IS A SIGN SOMETHING IS NOT RIGHT INSIDE, IRRESPECTIVE OF THE U.S.-CHINA PATHWAY.

GAUTAM: HOW MUCH OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS DRIVEN BY PROBLEMS WITH THE CHINESE ECONOMY, POSSIBLY PLUNGING INTO A RECESSION?

TOM: THAT IS PART OF IT.

LOOKING FOR A FOREIGN POWER TO BLAME IS ALWAYS THERE.

I THINK THE REAL PROBLEM IS, CHINA WAS GOING IN A CERTAIN DIRECTION.

WHEN YOU WERE TEACHING THERE, IT WAS TWO STEPS FORWARD, ONE STEP BACK, GETTING MORE OPEN TO THE WORLD, MARGINALLY LOOSER.

I REMEMBER THE DAYS I COULD DO A BOOKSTORE EVENT IN BEIJING.

THAT IS WAY IN MY PAST NOW.

THERE WAS A REAL U-TURN.

BECAUSE OF THAT, I THINK CHINA LOST A LOT OF TRUST WITH THE WORLD, AND AT A REALLY BAD TIME WHEN TRUST BECAME MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER.

AS EVERYTHING BECAME DIGITAL, EVERYTHING DIGITAL AND CONNECTED, MEANT YOU HAD TO TRUST THE PERSON ON THE OTHERS.

IS YOUR CHINESE MADE TOASTER OR REFRIGERATOR OR YOUR KID'’S TIKTOK, YOU HAVE TRUST THE OTHER SIDE IS NOT ABUSING THEM AND AS THE WORLD GETS MORE DIGITAL AND CONNECTED, I THINK CHINA CHOSE A BAD TIME TO LOSE THE TRUST OF A LOT OF ITS TRADING PARTNERS.

MICROCHIPS BECAME THE NEW OIL.

THEY CAN ONLY BE MADE IN THAT GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN OF INCREDIBLE TRUST BETWEEN THE PARTIES AND CHINA HAS HEARD ITSELF THERE.

BEYOND THE FACT OF THE U.S. IS WITHHOLDING ITS MOST ADVANCED CHIPS AND ITS ABILITY TO PARTNER WITH OTHER COUNTRIES ON THESE HIGHER TECHNOLOGIES THAT REQUIRE MASSIVE COLLABORATION AND A LOT OF TRUST.

THIS WAS A BAD TIME TO BREACH TRUST WITH THE WORLD.

GAUTAM: TOM FRIEDMAN, THANKS FOR BEING WITH US.

TOM: THANK YOU.

GAUTAM: COME BACK TOMORROW FOR "TALKING POLITICS."

THE PANEL BREAKS THE LATEST ON RENT CONTROL, SHELTER FOR MIGRANTS AND DRUG PRICE REFORMS AS WELL AS WHAT IS ON THE LAWMAKERS PLATES HEADING INTO THE NEW YEAR.

THAT AND MORE TOMORROW AT 7:00.

I AM GAUTAM MUKUNDA.

GOOD NIGHT.

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