During this correspondent's edition of OT we will update the SNAP program.

Apparently, it is off of life support.

And Democrats are geeked with election results last Tuesday.

And what are the political ramifications for the governor's race in the US Senate race in our state?

For the answers we'll hear from Kyle Melinn, Jordyn Hermani Lily Guiney, and Bill Ballenger.

Sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the Record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in par by Bellwether Public Relations, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

Learn more at bellwetherpr.com.

And now this edition of Off the Record, with Tim Skubick.

Thank you very much.

Welcome to Studio C. Off the Record.

The SNAP program is back on, hear what was happening before that happened.

Lawmakers just love to spend your tax dollars on so-called special projects back home, such as, for example repairing public swimming pools.

However, the House Republicans speaker would love to get his hands on some of that so-called pork barrel spending to help feed some 500,000 children and their families, as opposed to fixing a cricket playing field somewhere.

I think that's a great place to look.

Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of pork barre spending some of these projects.

What has a better benefit for people, right?

The cricket field or feeding people that are very hungry.

Now that President Trump is restoring only about half of the SNAP funding food benefits.

The head of the statewide food bank program reports more and more hungry people are moving more and more food off of their shelves.

Doctor Knight explains the food banks want to be fair to all regions of the state in this distribution.

I think a good estimate would be between 30 and 50% increase right now.

But w are moving toward the holidays.

And so we're always experiencing a bit of an increase as we move through now, through the first of the year.

43% of the people who are facing food insecurity in Michigan live in Southeast.

And so that's a lot of folks.

But people who live in, upper, lower mitten, maybe the population density isn't as much, but they're just as hungry.

So we try to be very equitable in that.

Governor Gretchen Whitmer an Speaker Hall last week took $4.5 million out of a $30 million emergency food fund to provide some 6 million meals over the next two weeks.

However, if the federal government shutdown does not end soon, that $30 million fund will simply dry up.

And Mr.

Hall warns the state cannot possibly pick up the slack if other federal assistance programs go south, too.

We're estimating it's over $500 million to backfill, and there's no guarantee that the state is going to be reimbursed for that.

Normally during the holidays, the food bank demands go up, and without federal dollars flowing over the holidays this time, that demand could be even higher.

So Jordyn, the life support SNAP program apparently is now on full supply, according to the judge.

Should we believe that this crisis is over?

No, because the Trump administration has already announced that it' going to appeal that decision.

you know, as of time of taping, SNAP's in flux.

SNAP might be in flux by the time someone sees this.

SNAP might still be in flux sometime next week.

It's been a very precarious dance that states across the country have had to undertake.

You know, we do have this 4.5 million that we gave to the Food Bank Council of Michigan, but it's estimated that the not as we know that we have 1.4 million Michiganders on there.

That's basically about two days worth of food for folks.

And even the head of the food bank acknowledged that, you know, this does not address the scope of the problem, but it's what we could immediately get out to our food banks.

It's what we could do i some things better than nothing.

and I have a feeling that this is not going to be the last time that we hear about this unfortunately.

Well the government still shut down.

Yeah.

You know, I mean, the federal government is still shut down.

We still don't have any, sign that it's opening anytime soon.

I mean, maybe the fact that we're all standing at airports looking at each othe may eventually move the needle.

Speak for yourself.

But who knows?

I mean, apparently, canceling SNAP benefits isn't getting inspiring.

The, folks in Washington, DC to move.

I don't know if, the cancellation of WIC will do it or if why, he will do it.

And we are heading into winte here, and people may not be able to get their lihe dollars to pay for their energy bills.

I don't know what is.

And so, you know, this this is going to be a continuous, issue as long as the federal government's stays shut down.

Oh, wait a second.

The head of the health department said you're goin to get your full SNAP benefits.

She issued a press release.

Okay, for the time being, but look, so much we can say about this contras the shutdowns here in the state and at the federal level.

I mean, we had one that lasted for two hours.

Nobody felt it.

We've probably already forgotten it at the federal level.

The face of the shutdow are the SNAP benefits of the air traffic controller.

That's where it really hits home.

But it's taken a month for that to really hit home and for people to feel it an recognize in the general public.

And I want to I want to emphasize that that that relief that we got last night from DHHS, the that's entirely you know, it's it's the boat made of paper, right?

You'r you're getting this court order and th the reliance on the court order from the state is, is great until the administration doesn't follow the court order or the appeal takes, however long it takes to be litigated.

And, you know, people have been waiting.

They waited through the first proceedings for the last week.

And you know, those food benefits, they're tangible, right?

You have people who are saying it's been it's been a week were a week in November where where are the SNAP benefits?

Well, and you even think about just the tug of war that's been going on with us.

It went from that SNAP benefits, had halted November 1st, then it was they're going to be coming back, this coming Saturday.

But only at half than it was actually it's coming back at 65% then it's no, you're actually going to get them fully funded.

No wait.

The president's appealing that how as a family do you plan even if you're only, you know, two parents and a kid, you still have to figure out your food budget.

And we again have 1.4 million Michiganders.

That's like 1 in 10 people in the state who rely on these kinds of benefits.

What kind of what kind of ability?

Yeah.

Sorry.

Like it's almost half a million children who are SNAP beneficiaries.

So so when you hear those arguments about, well, you know, maybe this wil inspire people to go get a job.

Are you seriously advocating for for children to get out into the workforce?

You know, a lot of these people do work.

Some of these people are disabled.

Many of them are children.

For the folks who are SNAP recipients, this does not enable them to plan.

This does not enable the to adequately set their budgets.

And it does, like Kyle point out, with other credits ending, you know, because of the shutdown soon or or just not being funded a the rate they should be funded, it just sends things into an even bigger tizzy than it is right now.

And, you know, th the private or the the charities can't be the permanent get a stopgap.

You know Phil Knight out I mean he was Phil Knight was really great at the press conference yesterday and explaine that we're going to do the best we can and we're going to fill in here for, you know, this week, next week, and maybe for a month or whatever.

But we can't be the permanent replacement.

We can't replace SNAP.

And so if the idea in Washington or anywhere among Republicans is that this entitlement is something that the federal government really shouldn't be involved in in the first place, and we should tr and push it off on to charities.

And we're going to use this shutdown as a way to try and figure out how else we can provide food.

Phil Knight said.

It's just we just can't do it.

They may take a 15th vote today in Congress that, by the time people see this will solve the problem.

Kyle, when the speaker spok about doing it, when the speaker talked about going into the pork barrel to feed the people, you smiled.

How come?

Well, because.

Now you're smiling again.

Well, I did, because I apparently got your intention.

I really, I like I liked where you were going with that because, here we don't have any food.

And so we're going to reach into the pork barrel in order to get pork to give to people.

And of course, you know, tha just is right in his wheelhouse.

The speaker of the House has been able, He would love to do that.

Oh, yeah, because he's been able to use that as a foil for his entire term.

That here's all this money that legislators have used on their own districts and you can say squandered.

And he's been able to use that messaging to a tee to as leverage on the Senate Democrats.

And now you can see he can use it to help feed people.

My goodness, it's the gift that keeps on giving.

But how realistic is that?

I mean, and I guess this is a question I'm more than willing to expose my ignorance perhaps on this.

But you know, he can say all he wants that he wants to reach into the pork barrel spending, but that's been allocated in the budget.

Are there contracts associated with some of these things?

Are people already spending expecting that, you know, if they are, for instance, like a behavioral health facility getting some money out of the budget, are they have they already spent some of those dollars?

You know, it's a nice thought that, yes, you know, we do have these projects, fundings he brings up like the cricket field and things like that.

We have these projects that you could ostensibly take money from.

But is that as easy in reality?

I agree, but, if I was consultant to a legislator who had a $20 million project going on home, I'd go to them, say, you know what?

Tell the people that you're going to not do that project and give it to the poor.

Do you think that would play?

Yeah, I think it would play.

It's a great issue.

But to answer your question, what Hall is saying is not going to happen.

You know, that.

We all know that.

Well, not to mention too, to Bill's earlier point, this shutdown could could (knocks) Be over.

End tonight.

Yeah.

And today I hope it does.

Frankly the people have been going on with this enough.

You know we're already i the longest shutdown in history.

What more is needed here.

Lily what do you think?

And I think I think what you know, to the point that wherever you pull, you're pulling from something else.

And what the speaker, Cricket field?

Food.

This is not a close call.

This is not a close call folks.

Let's look to the federal government.

Let's look to the Trump administration, which told us this week and last week that it would not pull from section 32 tariff revenue funding to supplement the, SNAP contingency funds because it says it's using that to fund WIC and, I want to say school lunches.

And, you know, I don't I'm not a federal budget expert by any means.

So I can't say to what degree that is totally true, that they're using those funds to backfill during the shutdown, those programs.

But I do think that, you know, when you start to get into the conversation of, I want to pull from this, to supplement this, to do this during a shutdown, that is like Jordyn said, please God, please temporary you you are going to you're going to start to nip and tuck in areas that might come back to bite you.

And I'll be interested to see, you know, if we start to pull, like, you know, the speaker is suggesting and it starts with the cricket fields.

Right?

And you have, you know, this, I'll say it's sort of pie in the sky idea of we're going to just pull.

I don't think lawmakers will ever actually do it because I just I don't see it happening.

But we're going to pull and we will see what happens down the road.

I don't think we get to that point, but it's an interesting twist in the story.

Will you give me that for sure?

I mean, I'll take whatever I can get.

I don't know how long you shut down going to last.

We have to go there.

We may have to go there.

Anything happen if we're here by Christmas?

Yeah.

There you go.

Lets hope not.

All right.

Let's turn to what happened on Tuesday.

And the Democrats are absolutely, positively geeked.

They think the war is over.

They won.

And this is premature, isn't it?

To think that Donald Trump is a liability in a year out?

In a governor's race?

Yeah.

Yeah yeah I mean come on I mean this is.

But that's their storyline.

Yeah I understand this was a referendum on Donald Trump.

This is a referendum on voter excitement right now.

And the bottom line is Democrats are more excited than Republicans right now because they've had an entir year to go and do their protest.

Do No Kings do their various activities and get people excite about the fact that Donald Trump is not a great president, in their opinion, and they want to go out and blow off some steam.

So if that means that we're going to Virginia, New Jersey, and some other areas and we're gonna go cast their votes, then that's what we're going to do.

I don't think it's necessarily a referendum on what can happen in 26, because that's going to be a completely different environment.

We have a set up piece from Steve Mitchell, the pollster, who basically says exactly the same thing.

Roll the tape.

Democrats are definitel in a victory lap mode, following what they are calling a blue wave at the polls this week in six state where Democrats did quite well, and where the Democrats say this was really a referendum on the performance of Donald Trump.

For his part, Mr.

Trump says the Democrats won because he was not on the ballot to drag people into office and because of the government shutdown.

Michigan veteran pollster Steve Mitchell says yes, it was a referendum on the president.

I think that the absolutely right, I think this was a referendum on, President Trump.

So does that mean if you're one of the seven candidates or so running for governor in 2026, that may be an endorsement of Donald Trump is a he the president continues to hold, however, his solid base of 35% support in Michigan.

And they are with him no matter what.

So Mr.

Mitchell explains, with Republican candidates such as Mike Rogers, they need that Trump base to win.

So he does not expect any Republican candidates in Michigan to ditch Mr.

Trump in the wake of what happened this week nationwide.

I think it's still too early to say that that Donald Trump is going to be an albatross around the neck of the Republican candidates here in Michigan.

It is unsure.

It's uncertain at this point.

It's just too far away.

It is assumed that Democrats, such as state party chair Curtis Hertel, will continue to play the Trump card, hoping to motivate voters to get to the polls to vote against the president's policies.

Meanwhile, Mr.

Trump won last time by getting mor African-Americans and Hispanics to vote for him.

Yesterday, however, many of them came back to the Democratic Party.

Is that a trend or a blip?

Well, it depends on whom you ask.

Billy, what's your take on this?

My take is that, the death of the Democratic Party has been greatly exaggerated.

They've shown a pulse in the election last Tuesday, and they swept the board.

Really.

And honestly, But in blue states.

Well, yeah.

And they weren't in many instances, a lot of stuff happened that didn't even involve, political affiliation.

But, look, I disagree a littl bit with Steve Mitchell in that, I mean, I think this could be a harbinger of 2026.

I mean, we can't dismiss the idea that, in fact, next year is going to be kind of a repeat on steroids of what happened this year.

Well, the Democrats are not going to give up on this.

They're not going to listen to anybody and said, this won't work.

They're going to make it work they say.

Theyre going to keep working on it.

And if Trump, doesn't have higher ratings next year than he does right now, I think it could be a bloodbath for the Republicans in 2026.

I think it's very possible.

I think it is a at least from my opinion.

Obviously, I'm not Steve Mitchell, I'm not a pollster.

But, you know, from from my opinion, there's a lot of reasons to be upset as an everyday American right now.

You know, we just talked a nauseum about SNAP.

There's inflation constantly.

You know Americans are feeling the impacts of tariffs on everyday goods that they get.

There's a lot of reasons why somebody, including Republicans, would want to go out to the ballot box and say hey, what's going on right now?

I'm not feeling it.

And so this is how I'm going to express my vote.

Now, the one thing I think Democrats do have to be careful of is this is a tightrope that they're on right now.

They can either view this as, you know, push full bore on anti-Trump, which to some degree I think will be successful for them.

But if we look back to the most recent presidential election, that did kind of become, a, a thorn in their side where when people would bring up Kamala Harris, it did feel like the average everyday voter only saw her as not Trump, despite the fact that she did have an extensive, policy platform of things that she would like to accomplish when in office.

But that, well, at least she's not.

Trump somewhat overshadowed that, I think, and again, fully my opinion.

you know, Democrats, if they're looking towards these elections, I think a good person and he might be radioactive for some in the party.

Zohran Mamdani campaign, ran mostly on bringing people together, bringing a community together.

And I know that might sound a little Kumbaya, but I think in this time when there's a lot of uncertainty and there's a lot of just strife in the world, people are looking to come together behind somebody, behind something, and that needs to be a person with an idea, and not just necessarily because they're not the other candidate.

And I think to Jordyn's point, you know, two things can be true at once, right?

You can have a referendum on Trump at the same time that you can have people just trying to rally around something.

You can have the anti-Trump piece, and you can have candidates that actually make people feel something.

But what I, what I found interesting was some of these down ballot races and that to me like school boards.

So.

Supreme Court, Supreme Court.

Yes.

And but what I, what I found interesting was this metric about, moms for Liberty school board candidates in some o these races in, in Pennsylvania.

But the metric, I think it was that there were 31 uncontested races where moms for Liberty endorsed candidates ran for school boards, and in all, 31 of those races they lost.

Now, if you had told m that maybe, were moms Rs or Ds?

The moms for Liberty, they're they're not Democrats.

They're no, but the the moms for Liberty candidates, you know, they were not they were not losing school board races just a couple of years ago, especially in places like Pennsylvania.

And I think that speaks maybe to what Jordyn was talking about.

You know, people maybe aren't buying the same divisive cultural and social narrative that they were a couple years ago when we weren't dealing with some of the same economic an affordability issues we are now.

And I wonder if we'll se a repeat of what we saw in 2022 with Tudor Dixon, where, you know, the narrative about maybe, say, transgender children or LGBTQ books.

Pornography in Books.

Yeah, the, you know, the culture war issues, for lack of a better term, if it's not going to fly as much when there's so much immediate stress on so many people.

You heard from some of the Trump people who are strong supporters, Mr.

Bannon starting ther and working backwards, who said, you know what, we got to start talking about the economy.

We got to start talking about this stuff that he said he was going to do that he allegedly has not done.

Yeah, I mean, he's got to motivate his voters.

I mean, I don't know if there's any Republicans who are now saying, you know what, I maybe I was wrong.

Maybe maybe Trump is screwing things up and I just don't.

So I just don't believe that's happening.

Marjorie Taylor Greene is going on a national press tour about it.

Thats true.

For different for different reasons though.

I mean, it's not because of a change of policy, because it's because of his.

The people that are for Trump are for Trump no matter what.

Well, yeah.

And so to that point, I'm just trying to see what point would they break away from Trump and I'm not seeing it.

So what I'm saying is that this is a motivation factor that was my my point to begin with.

And right now Democrats are motivated.

Republicans are not at this exact moment.

But that doesn't mean that to Mitchell's point, they're in eight months, ten months, five months, six months, things will change and all of a sudden they will become motivated again.

If look at if you're a Republican running for office in this state, you're not going to bail on Donald Trump at this point.

Why would you?

There's no there's no reason to do it.

Well, they're afraid to do it.

some of them in certain place might want to put some distance between themselves and Donald Trump.

How do you finesse that?

How do you how do you how do you have it both ways?

Very difficult.

You can't do it.

The problem is a primar for Republicans, that they worry they're going to be attacked from the right in the primary.

That's what they worry about in the general election.

There are certainly districts that are marginal that where they could differentiate themselves from Donald Trump.

But that's another battle, another day, a year from now.

Name the last person that tried that?

Oh, well, you can't, well.

Peter?

Peter Meyer?

Yeah.

I mean, we had a Republican debate this past week and and the week before that, the room was filled and they were all talking the praises of Donald Trump, every single one of them trying to out Trump the other one.

There' some anonymous person out there saying that this field, this person voted for DeSantis and this person like DeSantis, and they're not true Trump.

So, yes, to your point, Tim, they are still lockstep with Donald Trump.

One of the said they take a bullet for him.

Yeah.

And that's all well and good.

But when you have to run at a statewide level and you also have to garner the votes of people who may not be as supportive of Donald Trump, it's really easy to be pro hi when you're in a small room with like minded people.

It's a lot harder when you're looking at the entire state.

I didn't see a lot of coverage on that debate.

Well it was on election night.

That's why.

It was also the second on they had had in about ten days.

And it was about, you know, nine months before the primary election.

And it's one of four tha they're having about nine months before the primary election.

And we didn't have John James and we didn't have John, and we already covered the story that John James wasn't participating.

So.

It was old news.

Kind of right.

You were in some polling data from a firm in in Georgia.

Yeah.

Rosetta Stone.

Rosetta stone.

Yeah, yeah.

How's she doing, by the way?

Yeah, she's doing great.

I mean, she's still stuck you know, she's not moving, but.

What what (laughs) the what the.

The numbers were kind of interesting.

Yeah.

They were I mean, they kind of validated what we've kind of thought Jocelyn.

Can I just interupt, who who gave you that story.

I just got a press release.

I mean, I wish I could say I wish I could say inside luck.

Nobody called you up and said we got some hot news out of.

No.

Okay.

I know some of you, I dont even know who this is.

Did you see it?

I was going to say for the viewers back home, maybe we should probably explain a little bit about what this polling data even is.

So Rosetta Stone was just like Steve Mitchell?

I mean, he's somebody there's somebody who are hawking their, their goods and their abilities to poll.

And so this is just the free flier to tease people and say, hey, we exist.

What did they say?

They say Jocelyn Benson's run away with the Democratic nomination.

It's pretty much over the Republicans.

The Republicans had John James, Mike Cox was in double digits, who's like 13.

But .

But introduced whos name in the dynamics change.

Tudor Dixon.

They said, they put Tudor Dixon's name in there.

That's why I'm suspicious.

Okay Tudor Dixon said she's not running somebody who likes Tudor Dixon called Rosetta, okay?

And said, why don't you put her name?

She already sai she's not running for anything, but but I thought the same thing.

You know, she said a couple months ago, I'm not running for you.

I said I'm not running for governor.

But then you throw her nam in the mix, and all of a sudden she's competitive with John James.

Shed beat Benson.

Yeah, I know, so maybe they got a knock on her door.

I don't know, but it said at the bottom of the press release this was not, pai for by any particular candidate and said, had the disclaimer right at the bottom.

Usually you don't have to pu that disclaimer on polling data.

Unless you're worried.

Unless unless you're wondering, you know, maybe someone going to go Google something.

Maybe they're lying Kyle.

Im not lying no.

I'm just telling you what they put out there.

You know I'm not putting my tinfoil hat on necessarily.

This.

I'm not saying that when I leave here I'm not going to go, you know, Google something.

But hey, you know, it is interesting because when we had the conversation about Tudor Dixon re the U.S.

Senate race, when it first opened up, everyone was saying the bes possible thing that could happen for Democrats is Tudor Dixon getting into this race.

And could you could you get a poll without paying for it?

Is there some in-kind contribution that might have been exchanged?

You know what?

I'm asking you to look at that line.

Okay, it's not all inclusive, but I digress.

let's go to the MEDC It's on life support, but now the governor and the speaker said, I'm not going to take it away.

Yeah, well, you know, even Mike Duggan, when he was on the show back in the summer, he says.

Needs to be improved.

He said, well, the MEDC is not functioning properly and I know how to fix it, as you can imagine.

He said, SOAR, we ought to do away with and that, you know, this alphabet soup, economic development stuff is just Greek to the general public.

They don't really understand the difference between the strategic fund and, you know, MEDC and everything else.

But, you know, this is a big issue.

And by the way there's going to be a big event.

November 13th in Flint next Thursday, 7:00.

We're going to have Dan Kildee, John Cherry, state senato now talking about the whole idea of state subsidies for economic development, taxpayer funds, they call it cash for jobs.

Is that a good idea?

And you can see the legislature backing away from that.

This is like, you talk about bipartisanship.

We've got a bromance going between a progressive, a Democrat, Dylan Wigala and Steve Carra, a conservative arch conservative from southwestern Michigan.

And that had been going on for a while.

I remember Steve Johnson in the house and Yusef Rabhi, who could not have been more polar opposite on literally every issue coming together.

To decry corporate welfare and to your, the concept of the cash for jobs things.

You know, I say thi I think every time it comes up.

But, you know, we did some reporting on that.

We found that the state basically, created about 20% of the 65,000 jobs that they said that they were going to create through this.

So it's hard to sell.

Guess what?

It's time to go watch football.

Oh my goodness.

Thank you for watching Off to Record.

Thanks to our great panel.

Hopefully we made some sense here today.

Yes, yes, I hope so, I think so.

We scored a touchdown.

There you go.

You know Michigan State's not going to.

See you next week for more OTR.

Thanks for tuning in, folks.

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