Thanks for tuning in.

Our guest this week is the president of the think tank, the Citizens Research Council.

He is Eric Lupher.

He wants all level governments to get a little more money.

Our lead story, the governor checks in on the auto strike and on the OTR panel, Kyle Melinn, Clara Hendrickson and Jonathan Oosting.

Sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in part by Martin Waymire, a full service strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at martinwaymire.com.

And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Thank you very much.

Welcome to Studio C. Nice to have you on board with off the record.

Well, Governor Whitmer showed up this week talking about the strike.

Let's see what she was saying.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has been in contact with the UAW leadership and the big three auto executives as she keeps her fingers crossed that this strike does not drag on because if it does, the state could lose $122 million in tax revenue after an eight week strike, according to a U of M study.

Unlike her friend, President Joe Biden, however, who staged a very public rally on the picket line last week, Governor Whitmer has done at least one public rally with union workers.

But on the issue of actually walking the picket line, are you prepared to walk on the picket line?

You know, I have actually stopped by to bring some refreshments to folks who are on the picket.

Line, stopping by and saying hi.

The same as walking on the line.

I think is showing up and showing support.

In addition to monitoring the talks, the governor says the business and union leaders both have to come away with something when this bargaining is done.

All these workers, I think, have made a lot of sacrifices over the years, the deals or the offers, as I understand them, that are on the table are historic upgrades and and benefits for workers.

I'm you know, if you look at just in that capacity this looks like it could be a great win for workers and something that will keep these these auto companies here and thriving in Michigan.

Former President Donald Trump has injected himself into this strike by blasting away at the Biden administration's efforts to push more electric vehicle sales.

The governor who supports that policy won't mention him by name, but she says this about Mr. Trump's rhetoric.

I reject all the false choices that the man you just quoted continues to put out there.

I think that people deserve better.

Governor is also concerned about the Ford decision to put on pause that battery plant in Marshall.

But when all the issues are resolved, she remains upbeat that.

Once they are concluded, we'll continue to move forward on Marshall.

So what?

Why did your head go back and your left?

Oh, just you know, Governor Whitmer is really walking a bit of a tightrope here because this is a situation that she cannot control.

She has really no stake or she has no position in the UAW and Big Three talk, She can't jawbone them.

Yeah, right.

Exactly.

So there's nothing she can do except simply watch.

And while it can be politically advantageous at this point to be seen at the picket line with the UAW folks, what happens if this thing does drag out for months and months and months and all of a sudden public opinion turns on these UAW workers?

Now she's on the record as being so strident with them that it's hard to come back.

And also, she's got to try and keep Ford and GM happy.

She wants that Marshall plant, the Oval plant over in Marshall.

So she can't tick them off either.

So she's just she's just walking a tightrope.

That's all I was laughing about.

I mean, she is not in this fight specifically, but her economic agenda is on the line.

All future is riding on me.

I mean, she said yesterday when I talked to her about this, you know, she's tried to pitch this as I want a win win agreement.

I want a swift resolution to these strikes, and I want a fair contract for workers, but I want these companies to remain competitive.

And she said Ford has to be an ongoing concern because her administration's goals are on the line.

Yeah, and of course, I mean, Michigan, as the governor said this week, is uniquely impacted by this strike.

We have a huge auto industry presence still here in Michigan.

National Nationalism Anderson Economic Group said this thing is already maybe had a $4 billion economic impact.

And the longer it drags on, the bigger deal it's going to be for Michigan and to to both Kyle and Clara's point.

I mean, the governor is basically not taking a side here.

I mean, she said she went to a picket line, but she didn't even post photos on social media about that.

It was a very quiet thing.

I, I support you guys, but not.

Here's a couple cookies, by the way.

No pictures.

(Laughs) It was bagel sandwiches.

Reportedly, the Washington a Washington Post reporter was there, saw bagels and sandwiches delivered by the governor, and she declined to comment on the strike.

Well, the contrast here is striking.

Gary Peters announced to the entire free world and the communist world that he was going to be on the picket line and the TV stations in Detroit dutifully were there.

The governor passes out bagels and stuff and does it on a Saturday.

I'm not sure.

Was it at midnight or was it during daylight or whatever?

What what is the problem there?

Well, I mean, she does not want to, as Kyle said, be settled on one side of this issue or another.

Politically, she is has a very delicate balance here trying to keep I mean, that Ford plant especially.

That's huge for Michigan.

That's like one of her big signature economic development projects in Michigan.

Ford paused that a week and a half ago now, and they said they're not canceling it.

But the CEO of Ford said that it could be a lot bigger than we've talked about or it could be a lot smaller than we've talked about.

Stan, if we don't get what we need in this contract.

Exactly like you said, though, I mean, Gary Peters does not have to govern this state.

Governor Whitmer does have to, Governor.

And there's a big difference.

You know what?

Yeah, huge difference.

And she's why I said, look, it, don't the governor has a responsibility to play this thing down the middle.

And that's basically what she was.

She said, I was elected to represent the people.

Okay.

And so we'll see how this thing plays out.

Are we getting signals that they're getting closer?

Well, we'll hear from Sean Fanning, the UAW president today.

I mean, as of last week, things did not sound.

Today on sending some people back to work.

Wouldn't that be an announcement?

It would be.

I mean, General Motors just put put in a new offer for six on offer.

Ford had a new offer earlier this week.

So, I mean, certainly they're still at the table and that's a positive sign.

But, you know, if if Sean Finn announced more targeted strikes today, it's going to be a bad development.

So what's going on in the legislature, particularly the Michigan House, we had Mike Duggan's tax that he wanted got stalled in the House.

That's one story.

But there's a back story.

Well, there is a back story because, as you know, the House Democrats need every single one of their members to vote for a bill in order to it to advance without Republican support.

And what we have right now is Mike Duggan wants to have his land value tax, which in a nutshell is supposed to decrease taxes for homeowners while increasing taxes for large property owners, people like scrap yards and parking lots and so forth.

And on its face, the Republicans don't necessarily have a problem with it.

But if they if the the Democrats need his support, need the Republican support in order to pass it, and.

They do because every Democrat is on board.

Then we need some stuff to we need to start working in a bipartisan way, and we need to start getting our members some place.

And we need to start getting some things passed that our members support, not necessarily something controversial, but just, you know, basic things that we've been working out.

It's been and the reason why this has come about is because the progressives on the Democratic side have realized, hey, we've got some power here.

We don't have to just go along to get along.

We've got some agenda items we'd like to see and they're not necessarily what the speaker wants to see.

Well, it's a striking contrast.

And this is being played out all over the place that progressives always have a different agenda than the mainstream Democrats.

In the speaker, Tate, talking about walking a line.

How is he doing on the line has fallen off?

Well, he's held it together so.

Far, keeping the.

Blue.

Yeah, but I mean, you know, we've talked before the governor's agenda that that she's trying to get through the legislature now.

You know, for the first part of the year, they did some big things, but they were relatively low hanging fruit.

They were things.

The easy.

Stuff.

Yes.

And now they're getting into some meaty, tough or tougher topics like energy reform, clean energy policy, a paid sick leave.

And these are.

Let's well, let's along with the business community.

The business community is checking as say all that folks.

Sure.

Sure.

So you've got some moderate Democrats maybe having cold feet on some of these big issues.

You've got progressives that want to go even further.

Tate as Kyle mentioned, doesn't want to have to go to Republicans.

But look, maintaining a House caucus is always hard.

You got 110 members in the House.

If you have even 56 of those, it's difficult.

And Joe Tate is learning that right now.

He's got a lot of people who are.

Done is the former House Republican speaker said squeak, it's like herding cats.

And the good news is here, we've got a good story when we've got people all over the lot.

Isn't that news?

Yeah, sure.

I mean, you have Democrats like I'll say that against, you know, dug in is arguably one of the most powerful Democrats in Michigan and leader of Michigan's biggest city.

And he can't get what his marquee tax proposal is through a Democratic led legislature.

That's pretty interesting.

And then you have the governor, as Jonathan mentioned, kicking off the year with her wish list and then we'll be checking in at the end of December.

Sort of the undone and undone list there.

But Democrats seem to be struggling even to get through that list, let alone the stuff that progressives want to get done, too.

We talked about governing.

And right now, Speaker Tate is being confronted with new governance.

And if I do have to govern, then I have to work with some Republicans.

I mean, when the Republicans were in charge, they needed Democrats at times to get the stuff passed that they needed to get passed.

And in exchange, they had to pass some Democratic bills.

It's just the way the system works.

And Tate has been the speaker has been used to being will get whatever he wants by getting all 56 of his members to ram it through.

And that isn't going to work in the long term when you have a caucus that has a list of priorities that differs from his.

Why doesn't he understand that it's okay to go?

This is what the legislative process is.

He hasn't had to do this yet because he's been able to keep 56 together to do the one low hanging fruit that we talked about.

But now that we are getting into meatier topics, you need you got to have bipartisan support.

There just isn't going to get through this.

We also don't know what House Minority Leader Matt Hall is specifically asking for, and he is not in any position to want to bend over backwards to appease Democrats.

He's been pretty aggressive and feisty, fighting them in every avenue.

It's got a divided caucus, too, and he's got to have people coming into his office.

Mr. Speaker, what have you done for me recently, sir?

Sure.

His divided caucus is not going to come together anymore if the Freedom Caucus is mad that it's cutting a deal with Democrats.

A reflection of what we've got going on in DC.

This is a good cable show in the works here, isn't it?

Yeah.

I mean, this is this is like what we have going on in DC where you had Speaker McCarthy who, God forbid, worked with some Democrats, keep the government open.

Could have saved his.

Job and he and he lost this job because of it.

And it's this is a little bit of a microcosm of what we have in DC, where we have one where we have an extreme side of the aisle who is punishing the leadership, too, for trying to work across the aisle.

When you have this close, when you have this close of a margin, every lawmaker becomes a mini speaker in one issue depending on the issue as the agenda moves up and down, which makes it just it's a it's a you know what?

Shoot.

Well, and that's why bipartisanship then becomes an issue, because if you can if you have a relationship on both sides and the other side isn't shooting at each other, it's really the only way to get a lot of things done.

James Craig's running for the U.S. Senate.

Surprise, surprise.

Well, not at all surprise.

He's been, you know, dropping bread.

With being sent there, you.

Know?

Yeah.

Yeah.

I mean, he's made this very clear for a while.

You know, what's interesting is sort of the approach he's taking, you know, unlike the gubernatorial primary, he's very clearly trying to assume the Trump lane of the Republican Senate primary.

He's been on Steve Bannon's show.

He was on Garrett Saldana's podcast recently trying to win over the grass roots.

He came out and endorsed Trump before he even announced for Senate.

So, you know, he's, of course, entering a race with Mike Rogers, who has said some unflattering things about Trump in the past, potentially.

Peter Meyer Those folks are probably not going to get Trump's endorsement.

So James Craig's best chance to the nomination is to get that Trump endorsement run that Trump Lane.

That said, he ran a pretty disappointing campaign for a lot of Republicans in the gubernatorial primary last year.

Maybe even make the ballot.

This is his second bid for public office.

The first one, he didn't even give voters a chance to vote for him.

So let's see if he gets on the ballot this time.

Sure.

But I you know, I am starting to see the circulators start to collect petitions for the US Senate race.

And so this thing is really starting.

It's picking up the GOP field.

Got a lot more crowded with Craig entering the race.

One of the challenges he might face is that he's probably going to run on his law enforcement credentials.

Mike Rogers can run on those, too.

And he's already gained the endorsement of the Police Officers Association of Michigan.

I'm not taking James Craig seriously until he shows us he's taken this race seriously.

He ran a terrible gubernatorial campaign.

He had a path of gold laid out for him toward the nomination, and he completely blew it.

Now he's got actual competition in Mike Rogers and probably Peter Meyer, too, and that means he's got to raise money when those two who have raised money in the past are out there with their hand out.

You know, Peter Meyer, if he runs he's got West Michigan business support automatic Mike Rogers has support from.

Is not so sure about that, by.

The way.

Well well, we'll see.

We'll see.

But Mike Rogers has support with the business community.

So if Peter Meyer doesn't get it, Mike Rogers will.

You know, James Craig has got these low dollar donations that he was able to get when he ran for governor.

He was able to raise a million or two, but a million or two is what Elissa Slotkin is able to get in a quarter.

You know, so he's he's got to show that he's able to be disciplined enough to dial for dollars, get the big dollars, get the PAC, get something together and actually run a competent campaign.

And at that point, I think we can take him seriously.

But I haven't I haven't seen that yet.

I mean, James Craig didn't make the gubernatorial ballot because of a signature issue that wasn't necessarily his fault.

But that's not why Republicans I've talked to were so upset by his campaign.

A lot of folks really were excited when he entered the race.

They thought he had a great chance.

Then he didn't get out of Detroit.

You saw him often sitting in a chair in his office doing Zoom interviews and.

He didn't work a room.

Sure.

And apparently did not do enough to cater to donors either.

So, you know, there's real questions about his viability as a as a candidate.

That said, again, if he were to get a Trump endorsement, that would shake things up.

He hasn't been endorsing anybody, though, this time.

And that's the difference.

You know, two years ago, Trump was endorsing God and everybody.

But I think this time his team has been disciplined enough to say, you know what, that hasn't helped you at all.

So stay away from these local races.

Quit trying to be a kingmaker and just run a normal rand.

Run your campaign.

And I think Trump's running a much better campaign than he did when he was endorsing and.

Could say positive things about James Craig without fully endorsing him.

However, and he has.

When James Craig wrote an op ed endorsing Trump, Trump shared it on his own truth social network.

A lot of his campaign people endorsement.

No, it's not.

But I think Donald Trump likes James Craig, so that certainly works in his favor.

All right.

Let's call in our guest from the Michigan Citizens Research Council, the think tank down in southeast Michigan.

It's nice to have you on board.

Let's start with a simple question.

You know, the governor has got this Population Growth Commission.

Would you write a letter recommending to them that there has to be a tax increase to improve services in Michigan to attract people to this state?

Would you sign such a letter, sir?

Tim, it's always great to be with you and listening.

The first segment I'm reminded why we do policy and you do politics.

But as you point out, this is an issue where policy and politics collide.

I think our study shows that we have a real revenue problem in the state and a tax increase is one way to address that.

But it's not the only way.

Part of the problem in the state as our tax base has eroded, as we have failed to grow as a state, we have just done marginal budgeting for the last 20 years and honestly, the last 30 or 40 years.

And so we're trying to do the same things with less money and we're not doing them very well.

The statistics show that we're 36 in educational outcomes, 39th in health outcomes, 47th in road funding.

So, you know, you sort of get what you pay for.

So a tax increase has to be on the table.

But at the same time, maybe it's time to take a hard look at what the state's doing and say, we just can't afford to do everything that we've always done and therefore we can divert money and do some things better.

So if you'll pardon the expression, a hybrid approach, a tax increas Everything has to be on the table.

Sure.

Eric, you guys have put out a lot of reports that sort of, you know, laid the groundwork for this work.

The Population Council that Whitmer appointed is doing Michigan, you know, over the past 30 years ranks 49th out of 50 states for population growth.

I believe of all your research, what's the most startling data point or factor for that population stagnation, in your opinion?

So on the population side, when we really dug into the numbers and found out how much of our young people have lost, that's really for the last 20 years or maybe a little bit longer than the story of why we haven't grown as a state to many of our young people are getting their high school diploma or college degree and saying, you know, 40 other states look better.

I want to go to Memphis or Nashville or Houston or Denver or someplace else that the grass looks greener there.

And so as we think about the future of the young talent here, to grow and to do the jobs of tomorrow are missing.

And we're an old state already.

We're going to get older with that lack of young people on the policy side to find out that we are now 46th in the country and effective tax rate.

Michigan was a high tech state not that long ago where that was working against us as we tried to do economic development.

People would look at that and say, your taxes are too high.

I can do this better somewhere else.

46th in the in the nation.

That's a huge fall.

And now we've had the personal income data out that show that Michigan, relative to the U.S. average, is as low as it's been.

So, you know, we we started doing the study and in my reaction, having done this work for 37 years, was none of this is new.

This is all issues that we, the Citizens Research Council and we, the people of Michigan have been talking about for years.

But to pull it all together and to see the interconnectedness of this is, again, really eye opening.

How different is this situation, though, Eric?

Because it seems like we've had stagnant population for 50 years.

The young people are always going to Chicago or New York because the grass is greener and more exciting.

Is the current dynamic any really any different?

No.

You know, when we put out our first report back in May, I talked to several of your reporters and they said, you know what's different this time?

We've been talking about this for years, and and I didn't have a good answer, except for now people are paying attention.

The governor's office has leaned on for this.

The chambers of commerce, business leaders for Michigan, people across the aisle have come together and said, you know what?

We can't just kick this can down the road anymore.

I wish I could take credit for that.

We were in the right place at the right time, putting these reports out and thanks to the foundations that funded us to do that, it's increased attention to it this time where there hasn't been in the past.

But Eric, why don't why should people care?

Why should we care that we're stuck at 10 million people?

What difference does it make?

You know, there's nothing magical about 10 million versus 11 or 12 or eight, but it's that missing middle part of our population that should be concerning.

As we think about aging as a population and people leaving the workforce, who's going to be around to be the next floor manager at the Acme Widget Company?

Who's going to be taking care of us as we grow into our retirement and we need home care workers or nurses or doctors.

It's it's how the economy is going to operate in the future with so few people that are part of the workforce.

And if we can start addressing these things now, maybe we can start attracting people back to the state and growing that population.

Getting young families here that want to be part of the state, want to enjoy the beauty around us with our lakes and forests and everything we have to offer.

But just accepting that 10 million is a good number and life will go on.

Doesn't seem like a recipe for success.

How big of a problem does it pose?

The fact that the number of Americans who move across state lines has declined over the years?

And so is that Michigan kind of just competing for a shrinking pool of folks who are willing to to to move to a different state who aren't from Michigan?

Well, it's a shrinking core of people moving, but we're losing it regardless.

And we can't do anything about how many people want to move.

But those that do think about wanting to be someplace else, and certainly MDC and all the local economic development agencies are in the business of trying to attract businesses.

And with businesses come, people go.

So, you know, we have to play on the field that's given to us with the rules that are given and we're we're not winning right now.

I know that you're not diving into the auto strike thing, but as you look at this situation unfolding, what do you think the impact is on Michigan and what signal is it sending to folks who think, I don't really don't want to go to that state?

Do I?

You know, I thought about that.

At the same time, we have to grow Michigan together, counsel trying to think about how we can do things better and you think about pure Michigan and telling our story better.

And at the same time, on the national news, people are seeing the picketers on the front line in the strife between labor and business, and they're seeing it on Michigan.

Right.

They're not going down to the Georgia plants to look at people picketing or Indiana.

They're coming to Michigan for that.

So it really puts us on the front line.

Some people will really appreciate the strength of the middle class, the strength of the unions in doing this.

But for a lot of that goes the state.

Do you think the union movement hurts the state of Michigan in attracting people?

I don't think it hurts us.

But, you know, it's something out of our control.

We are a manufacturing state and it's part of the who we are as a state.

We have to part of our studies.

We have to be better at diversifying our economy and growing the high wage jobs so that we're less dependent on those auto auto jobs, that union jobs, things like that.

And and that's part of the problem is we're so dependent on it that, as my friend Patty Anderson points out, for this to go on much longer just would cripple the state and the economy.

The revenues coming into the state and local government.

So I think it's the dependance that's the issue, not so much that we're the unions are so big here.

Eric Tim started this conversation by asking you about the potential for raising taxes.

A lot of republican candidates and officials have said, well, maybe the answer is actually cutting taxes.

You know, the income tax.

They look at states like Florida without an income tax where the population is growing, what what does the data show about that?

Is that a major factor for people choosing to live in different location?

30 seconds.

I.

It is a factor, but it's not the most important factor.

People want quality of life.

The beauty of Florida being able to cut taxes is they have a place that people want to come because of the sunshine and oranges and Mickey Mouse.

We just don't have that.

So we're thank you very much for all the work you do on the policy.

Did you enjoy the political discussion?

It's great to be on the outside looking in.

Nicely put.

You want to go into politics?

Also, our thanks to our great panel.

See you next week here for more Off the Record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in part by Martin Waymire, a full service strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at martinwaymire.com.

For more off the record, visit wkar.org.

Michigan public television stations have contributed to the production costs of Off the Record.