chooses a challenger for Congressman Thomas Massie.

Internal polls and fundraising numbers give clues about Kentucky's open U.S.

Senate race.

The federal government shutdown continues to have impact in Kentucky.

The state Supreme Court considers a tug of war between the legislature xt oKE Good evening, I'mal Bill Bryant, and we welcome you to comment on Kentucky, a look back at and some analysis of the week's news in the Commonwealth and the guests on our panel of working Kentucky journalists tonight are Hannah Pinsky, politics reporter for the Courier-Journal.

McKenna horsley, politics reporter for The Kentucky Lantern.

And joining us remotely is Tessa Duvall, politics and public affairs editor for the Lexington Herald Leader.

We have a lot to discuss tonight.

In just before airtime, we learned that President Trump has chosen a challenger for fourth District Congressman Thomas Massie, Hannah.

That came out in a social media post from the president.

>> Yeah.

Trump had announced himself on social media with a picture of his chosen candidate, which is Ed Goren.

He's a former Navy Seal and farmer here in Kentucky.

And I think that one of the general consensus is this is a bit of a shock to some folks in some Republicans, because we had seen state Senator Erin's Read thrown around in the headlines in the recent months.

And what's also interesting is that this isn't gatherings first time running in a race.

He had actually run in the state Senate race that had Erin Reid, as well as former state senator Adrian Southworth.

And in that primary, it was a tight race between him and Reid.

So we'll see how this race plays out, especially since this is a federal seat compared to a state Senate seat.

>> McKenna, what else should we know about Gowran?

>> Yes.

So as Hannah said, he was in that primary in the seventh Senate district, which includes Shelby County area, which is where a lot of these candidates are from, including Aaron Reid.

But at Gowran is a former Navy Seal.

In that race, he was kind of seen as the establishment Republican candidate as an alternative to the incumbent, Adrian Southworth, who was at odds with her caucus and faced some opposition for her reelection campaign.

Gowran was endorsed by the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce in that primary, and he also had a donation from Republican Senate President Robert Stivers, so there was some backing there as well.

>> So we probably could see this coming.

President Trump and Congressman Massie have been at Cross Swords for some time.

>> They have.

And this term we've seen it over foreign policy.

We've seen it over the Epstein files.

The the president has come out really strongly against Thomas Massie, called him a grandstander and all kinds of other names.

And as really promised, to go hard in finding a challenger.

And now it seems that he has you know, Congressman Massie also has known that this was coming and just posted a very strong set of fundraising numbers with this latest round of filings.

So he he's been gearing up for this fight and I'm sure he will.

He will say, bring it on.

I know the people of my district.

That's been his his messaging thus far.

And so we'll we'll see how it plays out.

But this is definitely going to be one to watch.

>> Yeah, this is literally a minutes old story.

So we have not had a response from Massie to his potential challenger at this point.

Right.

>> Not yet.

But you know, I covered Massie when he did tour the fourth district a couple of weeks ago, and he was prepared then to win reelection again.

And he was well received by the voters on that tour as well.

>> All right.

Well, we'll watch the race now in the fourth and campaign 2026, obviously off and running, even though we're not even to the year yet.

We're not even to the filing, opening the filing window, which will happen in November yet.

But candidates are running ads.

They're bombarding us on TV and on our phones.

There's been a some public polling out there, very little really what we have found this week in the Senate race, candidates Daniel Cameron and Andy Barr released internal polls and both showed about the same thing.

Cameron held a 17 point lead over Barr, and both polls and both surveys showed that Nate Morris, a distant third in that polling.

So Hannah polls only give some guidance at this point, obviously, but it is perhaps easy to see that Cameron's statewide name recognition is an advantage.

>> Yeah.

And like you said, these polls should be taken with a grain of salt, especially since we're so far off from the May primary.

It does show that he has significant name ID, but that doesn't really come as a surprise because Cameron has run statewide before, whereas Barr and Morris haven't.

So the name ID does stem from, for example, his 2023 gubernatorial campaign.

And I think it's also important to keep in mind that name ID theoretically is something that can be bought.

And we've seen Barr and Morris over the past few months trying to do so by investing heavily in TV ads across Kentucky.

And we'll see going forward, you know, if those poll numbers start to get closer and if that strategy does work for the two candidates.

>> And this polling advantage for Cameron prompted Barr to pull out the electability card, Tessa noting that Cameron lost a statewide governor's race in 2023 despite having the endorsement of President Trump.

>> That's right.

But in 2023, Daniel Cameron was going up.

A popular incumbent with strong name ID, whose own father was governor.

And that's an uphill battle and was always going to be an uphill battle for no matter who the Republican Party nominated in 2023.

But to also respond to Congressman Barr's argument, Daniel Cameron can say, I'm also the only one out of the three of us who has won a statewide election because, of course, Daniel Cameron was the attorney general before running for and during his run for governor.

And what this polling also shows us is that Daniel Cameron is maintaining really strong support across all these internal polls that we've seen come out this year, and that also includes his favorable and unfavorable numbers, you know, because he's been exposed to voters so much, he's been on their ballots before.

He's had opposition research dug up on him before.

And, you know, negative ads and all of that.

And despite all of that, you know, years of exposure, he remains maintains really strong favorability.

And a lot of people who would say, yeah, I'd vote for him today.

So it does kind of beg the question of what can Andy Barr and Nate Morris do to bring down Daniel Cameron?

Because honestly, right now, those two have been going at each other more than they've been going at Daniel Cameron, I think in large part because he does not have the fundraising advantages that they both have.

But of course, eventually you got to start thinking about, okay, what are the polls showing?

We're getting closer to Election Day.

These numbers aren't changing.

Maybe it's time for a change in strategy.

>> And so McKenna, is it some advantage for Cameron to have been able to sort of stay out of this fray between Barr and Morris so far?

>> I think so in some ways.

You know, that's kind of the trend we saw with the 2015 GOP primary for governor, which led to the election of Matt Bevin in that race.

But as we have noted, that Cameron has caught some praise this week from the Barr campaign when he touted their poll as agreeing with his poll.

So, you know, we're so far away from Election Day, it's really hard to say which way the race is going at this moment.

>> We also saw some fundraising numbers this week.

We also we saw that Morris gave his own campaign about $3 million.

Barr has the most at about 6.6 million, and Cameron is far back in.

Yet Hannah leads in the polling.

And as we're saying, if you don't have to buy name identification, can you get by with less funding?

>> Yeah.

I mean, we'll have to see.

I know in Cameron's social media posts they are really highlighting the polling numbers, whereas Barr and Morris are kind of going with the strategy of, look how much people are investing in my campaign.

Look at they're not only saying, you have my vote, they're also investing.

We want to get you elected.

So it will be an interesting strategy to see if Cameron's poll numbers do stay the same, regardless of how much Barr and Morris keep fundraising.

>> It can be an advantage.

But in some ways the name ID can be something that or something that can be built up with war chests and well-funded campaigns.

And I think that's something that political strategists tend to believe.

So because we're so far out from the primary, these other two candidates, Morris and Barr, can use their finances to buy ads, host events with voters to get their name out there across the state.

>> Sorry, Bill, I didn't mean to cut you off there, but I'm so eager to jump in.

We've also seen a cautionary tale from the 2023 governor's race in Kelly Kraft, who was an outsider to politics very similar to the way Nate Morris has kind of positioning himself also through millions of dollars at her own campaign, as Nate Morris seems poised to do.

And that led to a third place finish.

You know, she ultimately lost to Daniel Cameron.

Ryan Quarles also had a better performance than her on Election Day.

So we know that money isn't everything now.

One key difference, though, is by the time that Kelly Kraft got into the governor's race for that GOP nomination, President Trump had already endorsed Daniel Cameron.

And of course, the Trump endorsement is sort of the subtext to all of this.

It can make or break anyone's campaign, and that hasn't happened yet.

So that could still be a lane for for Nate Morris.

>> And yet you see the auditioning by all three candidates for that endorsement, quite obviously.

>> Yes.

And they're all going about it in their own ways.

Of course, we know that Nate Morris has ties to Donald Trump junior and Vice President Vance.

We know that Andy Barr is positioning himself as a fighter in Congress who can directly get the president's agenda done.

And, of course, Daniel Cameron has received that nomination before.

You know, the president has called him a star.

So they all have their own connections.

It's just a matter of does the president pick one, or does he do what he does sometimes and say, they're all great, you can't go wrong remains to be seen.

>> And these candidates are hoping to succeed.

Mitch McConnell, who has been getting some criticism from those who want to replace him, Nate Morris, namely, and then Cameron and Barr have also distanced themselves from him some.

The state's senior senator, though at the same time is being recognized and being lauded for his years of service.

This was said at the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce.

>> Senator, your partnership has strengthened our economy.

It's advanced opportunity, and it's ensured Kentucky's voice is heard far beyond our borders.

Tonight, we honor that enduring legacy.

>> Lightning only strikes once.

It's always said, and it has struck the state of Kentucky.

And Mitch McConnell his.

Impact on the United States will last 30 and 40 years beyond his term.

>> McKenna.

How much of a wild card is McConnell in this race to succeed him?

>> I think that he might be more of a factor in the general.

Once a Republican candidate is chosen by voters because it's hard to find a Kentucky Republican that hasn't had some influence by Mitch McConnell, particularly within party leadership, elected officials.

You know, the headquarters for the party is named after Mitch McConnell.

So I think in some ways, the party does owe a lot to his legacy.

And that's kind of what we saw here at the chamber event and things like that.

But, you know, maybe the candidates don't want his help right now, but maybe when it comes time to the general, you know, they will want help from him, maybe publicly or maybe more on campaign donations.

>> Yeah.

We'll note Senator suffered another fall this week in Washington.

Said to be doing okay, in fact, was expected at an event in Kentucky on Friday night.

Democrats have their own crowded contest with Amy McGrath entering the race last week.

House Minority Leader Pam Stevenson is in.

You have former CIA agent Joel Willett, former Secret Service agent Logan Forsythe actively campaigning Hannah.

We keep hearing that even with this crowd, it may yet grow more.

>> Yeah, and like we said earlier, you know, the filing deadline isn't until January, so we could see more people jump into this race.

I do think it's interesting that, you know, at the beginning it was just State Representative Pamela Stevenson.

There were questions of, are any other Democrats going to jump in this race?

And it seems like throughout this fall we've just had one after another.

And the more crowded this Democratic primary gets, you know, it'll be interesting to see which individual strategies works, because we have four very different candidates here so far and potentially more.

>> Tessa, has Amy McGrath's entry change the dynamics in any perceptible way in the last week and a half?

>> I think so, because love or Hate are excited about this candidacy or not.

She's going to come into this contest on the Democratic side and have the most name recognition because, again, she's been a candidate, she's been on the ballot for people before.

Whereas, you know, Pam Stevenson being a state lawmaker, that's drawing from a very small district comparatively to, you know, either the sixth or the Senate race that McGrath has previously won in or, I'm sorry, not one run in.

And, you know, we have candidates like, like Willett and Forsythe who are really also going to have to make a name for themselves.

You know, probably a lot of people couldn't pick them out of a lineup right now, and they're going to have to work hard to differentiate themselves.

That being said, all four of these Democrats have a history of public service.

They're all sort of carving out their lane.

But as of now, you know, Amy McGrath, I would have to think has the advantage in name recognition and also has proven that she can raise a lot of money.

Now, does that happen after the defeat that she had in 2020?

You know, does that happen again?

Or do folks kind of look at that race and say, we tried that once, it didn't work out, you know, on to a different one.

It remains to be seen, but you cannot deny that she's going to have the most name ID out of those Democrats.

>> All right.

So close watch on the US Senate race.

Now to the race to replace Barr in the sixth district House seat in central Kentucky also crowded on both sides.

Hannah is the campaign finance reports have rolled in.

We know that former Senator Ralph Alvarado and State Representative Deanna Gordon have had big quarters.

State Representative Ryan Dodson occupies a social conservative lane.

Could that mean he could get by with less money?

>> You know, I think it depends because the the sixth district is diverse.

So I think the social conservative messaging could work, let's say in a more red area.

But keep in mind you still have Fayette County, which has Lexington, which tends to be more moderate and have more moderate Republicans.

So that strategy might not work there.

So we'll have to see moving forward, if his lower fundraising numbers is something to be cautious of, or if his social conservative messaging does work out.

>> Sixth district Democrats.

Tessa, we're also watching limbo, a name that no one had heard of before.

This is raising money pretty fast.

>> He is.

He's posted a really strong showing as well.

But of course, former state representative Sherilyn Stevenson is is well positioned in that race because she has a deep set of political connections in Kentucky.

She's got the endorsement of Lieutenant Governor Jacqueline Coleman.

We also see a couple of other candidates in that race.

And on both sides, you have a number of candidates running in the primary.

The Republican side just picked up Greg Pucinski this week, so we don't have his fundraising numbers yet.

But when you start dividing up the vote, you know, three, four, maybe even more ways, you know, it's a little harder to predict how exactly might things might turn out.

So these are both certainly contests to be watching closely on Primary day, because of course, this is one of the districts that Democrats are hopeful that they can pick up in the midterms.

>> Do you think the government shutdown will still be a factor by the time we get to May or will that?

Does the news cycle move along so quickly?

People will forget it?

>> Oh man.

I think there's a lot of people who hope that we are not still shut down in May, but of course we are seeing that in the messaging now with, you know, blame going back and forth for that.

So I did it this side did it because again, people are are trying to get their message out.

You know, how they're going to be a fighter, how they're going to stand up for the constituency.

And this is an opportunity to to distinguish themselves.

>> Kentuckians will have a big ballot next year.

In addition to picking a new U.S.

senator, members of the U.S.

House, the races for the state House and Senate seats, locals will pick mayors and councils and decide who will run their courthouses.

The filing deadline runs from early November to January 9th, and comes during the distraction of the holidays.

Well, Secretary of State Michael Adams says there's a political reason for that.

>> The window is much longer.

It was until, I think, the end of January, and that's been dialed back to now, early January.

And the thought behind that was there are legislators who it's believed, don't want to cast tough votes in January because they're watching to see who comes to my office and files against them.

And they may incentivize an opponent if they cast a tough vote.

So the idea by the General Assembly was to move that filing window backward and leave more of January open earlier, but also cut off earlier.

And the idea was that it will make it easier to make public policy without people peeking over their shoulder.

>> McKenna.

In other words, the early filing deadline keeps down opposition that might form out of an issue or two that could come up early, right?

>> That's true.

I also think there's some other reasons, or at least an effect of that, that we see sometimes we see in the General Assembly, bills be filed in support of candidates to kind of make an issue in the Capitol for their campaign.

That's something we definitely saw in the 23 governor's race with Senate Bill 150.

That was that omnibus anti-trans bill that was filed by Kelly Crafts then running mate, Senator Max wise.

But that led to it being a large issue in that governor's race for the rest of the year.

>> Sometimes constitutional amendments are used in that way as well.

And so we could see some of those on the ballot next year.

>> Because I just saw an agenda for a committee meeting that I believe is next week.

Senator McDaniel once again going to talk about his issue to restrict the governor's pardon power, power.

And that would scale it back to, I believe, no pardon.

Starting 30 days before a gubernatorial election.

Of course, this is been a passion project of his for a while.

And, you know, it's one that if it ever does make it to the ballot, could have some bipartisan support, because of course, Matt Bevin's pardons were quite controversial.

And of course, President Trump came in and pardoned everyone on January for January 6th.

So, you know, maybe that is something that Republicans could put on the ballot and have passed, because, of course, there have been some very high profile defeats for amendments that the legislature has put on the ballot in recent years.

>> There could be up to four, I think, on the on the ballot.

Louisville could have some spirited races.

Next year, the mayor's race will be nonpartisan for the first time.

Hannah Mayor Craig Greenberg is running for reelection.

Will he have strong opposition?

>> So right now we don't see any visible opposition or anyone else who has filed yet.

I think to keep in mind, though, there is an opportunity.

It could be competitive.

We could see a more leftist candidate per se.

I think there are some issues that Greenberg leans kind of toward more the center on and more moderate, which doesn't resonate with all of the Louisville community.

But I think right now what we are seeing is some recent moves of moves of his seem to be politically calculated heading into an election year.

So, for example, he recently reappointed Ed Harness as the inspector general.

There's kind of uncertainty whether or not that was going to happen.

But, you know, harness was seen as really popular with the Louisville community.

And could Greenberg be using his reappointment as a strategy and as something to tailor to voters next year?

We'll have to see.

And if he continues doing similar moves moving forward.

>> But he's trying to broaden his appeal.

Exactly.

Yeah.

All right.

Some other news of the week.

Kentucky State University is making a case for new agricultural doctoral programs.

>> We train master's level students in year after year.

We see them leaving the state and apply for PhD program elsewhere.

If Kentucky is going to remain the premium state in terms of producing highly skilled workforce, we have to train highly specialized PhD holders.

>> McKenna, tell us about CSU's push.

>> Right.

So we've seen colleges across Kentucky, particularly the public universities, make the push for new graduate programs to the Kentucky legislature.

The way the process works means that they need some an approval from lawmakers before they begin these programs.

But we did see a bill last year that got passed that would pave the way for a few programs, particularly EKU and Murray State.

But KSU is kind of trying to take that same route with these two new doctoral programs that are focused in agriculture, and they argue that this could help expand the workforce here in Kentucky and keep academic talent here in the Commonwealth as well.

>> Once again, the Kentucky Supreme Court is dealing with a tug of war.

This is between the state's legislative and executive branches.

And Tessa, this has to do with separation of power and the power to appoint members of key boards.

>> It does.

And something that we've seen is a recurring theme throughout Governor Beshear's time in office is the legislature looking at ways to sort of claw back some of that power that is vested in him or in the office of the governor, rather, and redistribute it, whether it's to other constitutional officers or otherwise shuffling things around.

And so that's really what is at the heart of these two cases that were heard this week.

It's it's a power struggle between a Democrat in office and a Republican legislature.

And, you know, there has been the question of would these changes even have been made if we had a Republican governor?

And, you know, that is a question that maybe will be addressed by the outcome of these cases.

>> Or would it be changed back if there were Republican governor?

The Republicans control the legislature as they do.

We'll see if that occurs.

Also, Governor Beshear has been on a European trip.

McKenna.

We've seen some pictures posted and videos and so forth, but no news on that yet.

On that trip.

>> There has been some from his social media posts, we've learned that he's in a lot of economic development talks with companies abroad in trying to get them to relocate or bolster their operations here in Kentucky.

So this is definitely an economic driven trip for him.

>> State Representative Jason Nema says the Jefferson County public school system needs the business community to help dig out of a financial crisis.

Hannah steep shortfall for J-c-p-s the business owners have a stake in trying to help.

>> Yeah, and in that post, he had said that JCPS failing also means it pushes what he calls high earners out of the county, and that will hurt Louisville in general, whether it means people aren't supporting supporting local businesses, whether local businesses are seeking, you know, people to employ and they just can't because people are just leaving Jefferson County to search for another school district.

I think it's also interesting that Nemis has also previously said the General Assembly won't let the board raise local taxes in the next session to solve this issue.

So I think he's turning to the business community to kind of step up as we're going into the 2026 session next year.

>> I got the feeling meeting with superintendents and lawmakers this week and a forum that I did, that there will be a lot of education discussed in the upcoming session.

Of course, naturally, with it being a budget year, Fayette County also with that $16 million shortfall.

So there's been a lot of dissention, internal discussion about that and audits ongoing.

All right.

Before we go, many are remembering former Kentucky first Lady Jean Ford.

She was the wife of former governor and former Senator Wendell Ford.

Governor Beshear said on social media that Jean and Wendell Ford made an enormous impact across the Commonwealth and won't be forgotten, and many in central and eastern Kentucky.

Remembering TV reporter Jerry Sander in his long television career, Sander covered everything, but his focus was on health and medical reporting.

Many credit Sander with giving them credible information that helped them take charge of their own health.

Jerry Sander was 79.

That's comment on Kentucky.

Have a good week ahead.

You hear us, Tessa.

>> I can now yeah, yeah.

>>