The battle for control of the Michigan House will deliver both sides this week back to back with Governor Rick Snyder and Democrat Representative Tyrone Carter.

Our lead story, Michigan still has the welcome mat out for it seems like everybody running for office.

On the panel, Jonathan Oosting Clara Hendrickson and Zachary Gorchow.

Sit in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the record production of Off the Record is made possible, in part by Martin Waymire, a full service strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

Learn more at Martinwaymire.com And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick.

Thank you very much.

Welcome to Studio C and an ugly looking pure Michigan morning.

We get into the foretaste of what's to come.

Clara, explain to me why this race is still tied presidentially in Michigan.

Your guess is probably as good as mine.

I mean, Michigan obviously is a very competitive state.

It's been a battleground now for a couple or should say a few presidential election cycles.

This cycle is no different.

I mean, it could partly because, you know, Harris got in the race so late that voters are still getting to know her.

I'm not so sure.

I mean, obviously, we're seeing some shifts in the political coalitions, both sides here trying to tout that they have a diverse and wide ranging coalition.

Trump trying to peel away black men and Arab American voters and Muslim voters in Michigan.

Harris Trying really hard to win over more Republican voters.

This time Liz Cheney was with her in the state we'll see in November if the race is actually as tight as the as the polls indicate.

What do you think?

Well, I mean, I don't know if the camera can pick up my my Michigan State tie here, but as we head into the Michigan State U of M game, we can that is this is team politics really is what we have gone to that we the number of swing voters is so small the folks who will split their tickets are actually like weigh the two candidates.

Otherwise it is you know I'm with the home team ride or die and you're talking essentially both sides have 47% of the vote on lock.

And it's just this tiny percentage left that they're fighting for.

And that's why it's so it's going to be tied.

Yeah.

I mean, is it tied?

I don't even know.

Right.

I love some of the Michigan pollsters we have here.

Nothing against them.

But I think it's a very challenging environment to poll right now.

I mean, lying to the polls.

Yeah, I think possibly in both directions.

So in '16 and '20 in the poll did sort of under Trump outperformed them and he's really leaning into even more of this idea of trying to get low propensity voters.

These are folks who probably don't answer polling calls and usually do, or if they do, they don't choose working very hard to try and get them out.

Whether he does or not could have a major impact on the election.

On the same hand, you've got Liz Cheney coming to Michigan this week and telling Republicans, hey, you can secretly vote for Kamala Harris and not tell anyone it's okay to do that.

So, you know, are people telling the truth to pollsters?

We don't know.

And so I'm not I'm not going to predict one way or another who's going to win, but I'm not sure it is tied.

We don't have anything I'll say about that.

I totally agree with everything Jonathan just said.

I think Quinnipiac, they had this shift in their last two polls in Michigan, something like it went from Trump plus three to Harris plus one or two or something like that.

And it was totally based on the composition of who they polled.

It had nothing to do with people changing their minds.

It's all is very difficult to try to get a representative sample.

And that that is what we don't know.

You know, going into the 2012 election, there were a couple of polls out there that claimed Romney was close to Obama.

Obama ended up winning by ten points.

So, you know, these things can suddenly break at the end and that could happen again here.

All right.

I want you guys to look at two voting groups.

If women vote in larger numbers than men, then Kamala Harris wins.

Okay.

She's got an 18 point lead.

What's the number?

It's a significant lead.

However, there are more non-college educated men who are in this thing.

And why are you going like that?

Well, yeah, this gets to exactly.

Should they decide this gets exactly to the idea of low propensity voters.

Right.

Kamala Harris.

On paper, she's got voters who tend to vote in elections.

You know, in her camp, largely, Trump's whole thing is trying to get college educated, non-college educated males out to vote.

That's, of course, wide swaths of rural Michigan, but also Detroit.

You know, he's making a play that at least change some of the margins there in Detroit with black men.

And so, you know, that's an expensive endeavor.

It's hard to do.

But Trump has shown that he's able to get some low propensity voters out in past elections.

Female vote.

I mean, we'll see.

Certainly, Democrats are trying very hard to keep abortion and reproductive rights front and center in this conversation as a motivator to so much wish Prop three was on the ballot, don't they?

Maybe.

No, I think they're trying to replicate that same kind of energy and synergy, for sure.

For sure.

And I just thought it was so fascinating.

I was at the Vance rally last night in Waterford, and I met a woman whose husband, 54 years old, voting for the first time in his life for Trump with his son, too.

And so you have there you have two men in Oakland County.

You know, third time's the charm for these men.

Do these visits make any difference at all?

I think they do.

I think they do, because look at what Clara just described.

This is a chance for, you know, these voters who don't engage with politics.

They probably don't watch off the record, unfortunately.

They're the majority.

this is a chance for them to reach out, see and feel a real live presidential candidate.

And you know what it is?

You know, we forget because we get a little jaded covering this all the time.

But it is special if you've never interacted or seen a presidential candidate in person before, it is a special thing to go do and it will help get you motivated to vote and I will say I am very surprised that Vice President Harris has not been on the University of Michigan Michigan campus yet.

She's not been on the Michigan State campus yet.

And that is if you're talking about lower propensity voters that tend to vote Democratic.

She's got to get there.

I'm surprised we're under two weeks to go.

It hasn't happened yet.

I assume it will.

But that's the converse of the Trump, you know, showing up in rural Michigan and places that don't usually get a candidate.

And one other thing going on there, Mr. Trump is the entertainer.

He's a show.

Is she a show?

If you you know what I'm asking.

Well, yeah.

I mean, her rallies have some of that pomp and circumstance as well that Trump is famous for.

Of course, Trump does more of them.

He's been there more.

But, you know, Harris has had some good sized rallies in Michigan.

It's just there's only been a few of them compared to smaller stops.

You know, she's been here for her radio appearance or for the Liz Cheney conversation.

But in terms of big rallies, you know, Trump is and J.D.

Vance, they're all over the state doing this.

Barack Obama did he move the needle when he was in D- town.

Well, he rapped Eminem's Lose Yourself.

I mean, it was kind of incredible to see.

I mean, it just tells you, boy, it could Detroit be any more important than it is right now?

You know, I think when the former president, President Obama, comes to Detroit, it is helpful.

He is wildly popular.

He's, of course, very effective as a speaker and communicator.

But, you know, the fact that he's there, it has to reach the right people.

You know, I remember I don't remember if he came in for the Clinton rally and in 2016, but she came in at the 11th hour.

Remember, they were going to do the gig in Detroit and they had to move it to Ann Arbor.

So this is a different when she was in Detroit, but it wasn't really Detroiters that were at that Clinton rally.

Later, it seemed to be Democrats from the suburbs driving into the city.

And it was an indicator there wasn't enthusiasm in the city.

So it to me, it's yes, it's helpful to have Obama in Detroit if the right people are here, that Detroiters themselves are there and hearing the message.

Really interesting that Kamala Harris this weekend is going to be with Michelle Obama in Kalamazoo and not a place that's gotten a lot of presidential visits recently.

Why?

I think it's, again, a play at these, you know, the Joe Schwartz Republicans folks and sort of a moderate area where you can hope to peel off some people and keep building this, you know, coalition of disaffected Republicans and at the same time, you know, turn out folks who are in your camp already.

So it's an interesting choice, not one I saw coming in.

And I'm interested to see where it is at Western Michigan University.

I think that would be a real logical move.

There's a large number of black voters in Kalamazoo.

Maybe they're trying to get them activated.

And as Jonathan said, this is sort of one of those college educated, ascendant areas for Democrats, places like Portage in and around the city that used to be very Republican and now are voting Democratic.

Right.

Very quickly, it's a lead into the interviews that we're going to see with Mr. Snyder and Representative Carter.

House control.

What's what's your read?

What are the tea leaves say?

Well, it's a challenging environment for Democrats.

I think they held the two seat, one or two seat majority in a year where Gretchen Whitmer won by like ten points.

Was it at the top of the ticket?

Kamala Harris is not going to win Michigan by ten points if she does win.

So it's automatically a harder environment.

That said, you know, Democrats have a couple areas.

If they do super well, an Oakland County like there are three seats there possibly if they could, they could flip.

And if Oakland County continues to trend heavily in the Democrats favor, Democrats favor, they might have a chance.

But they're playing defense in a lot of areas as well.

It really struck me just being at this event yesterday with Governor Snyder trying to stump for House Republicans.

Peter Meijer was also there.

The former congressman.

And both of them, you know, they're not talking much about the top of the ticket.

And then you have Governor Whitmer on the other side really leaning into the Harris Walls campaign.

Obviously, she's a national campaign co-chair.

She's a top surrogate.

And so you have this sort of divide about how the top of the ticket is going to impact down ballot.

I mean, I think in the end, this is going to come down to like basically two or three seats, tops.

And to Jonathan's point, these are going to be seats where Trump is likely to win.

So downriver, Macomb county, kind of the Battle Creek area.

And these Democratic incumbents have to find a way to hang on that tide.

All right.

So we're about to hear from Governor Snyder.

And then after he speaks, we get to hear from Representative Tyrone Carter.

So let's take a look at what the two of them had to say about House race.

First of all, Governor, thank you for doing this.

Why now?

All of a sudden are you surfacing and saying, here I am, let's go?

Yeah, there's a couple of things, Tim, is it's a natural evolution.

So I've been happy to help them out, work with great candidates in swing districts, do a lot of good things like that.

But one of the big issues is, as there's been a tremendous amount of out-of-state Democratic donor dollars coming into Michigan, just flooding the airwaves.

And you see it on the TV, you're part of that world.

So you understand that if you looked at it roughly about $20 million was spent by both sides in the last election cycle.

For the Michigan House, the number that's already been calculated for the Democratic side is over $47 million for the Michigan State House races, with about half or more of that coming from out-of-state donors.

And that's a concern to me.

To be blunt, I'm a michigander and that's a see out of state.

People just flutter, stay with dollars trying to tell us what to do.

I don't like that I'm a positive guy, but you can't like that when you knock on the doors.

You hear the abortion issue at all.

No, I'm no, I think it's really strange to see the issue on TV and state legislative races to the degree it is because it was decided and it's in our Constitution.

So, again, I think if you talk to people and even if you look at the polling, the number one issue on people's minds are cost of living, bread, milk, gas.

It's going up a lot.

And one of the key things I explain to people is, you know, we had a tax cut that was taken away.

I think this is actually a model where I think we should be doing tax cuts now because the state budget has gone from, what, $56 billion in my last year to over $80 billion.

Think about that amount of money.

And just like four or five years and where that money is going, that's not an efficient use of taxpayer dollars.

And people work too hard to earn those dollars, leave it in their pocket.

So do you think the Democrats are trying to exploit the abortion issue?

I think they're pushing it really hard.

And I don't understand why in the state context, federally, I understand.

But in the state of Michigan, that's a decided issue.

Well, they would say it's not a decided issue because the top of the ticket could change abortion.

And you better get out there and you better vote in order to make sure nothing bad happens here in Michigan.

That's what the Ds are saying.

They're running those ads on specific state legislative races and the state legislative races do not have an effect on that issue given the Michigan Constitution.

So my question is still on the table.

Are they trying to exploit it, sir?

I think that would could be a fair way to describe it.

But you don't think abortion will decide control of the House?

I can't answer that question, you know, after people vote.

But what I would say is, what's on people's mind.

Number one is the economy and their cost of living.

Will the top of the ticket influence control of the House?

I think history would say it can influence the House.

The way I view it, though, is when you've got good candidates, they have better policy positions.

And again, you know me, I'm a positive guy, so I'm very proud of the House Republican Campaign Committee coming up with the mission for Michigan, which is a platform of positive points, talking about having better policy for Michigan rather than being negative against things.

And I think those things make a difference.

Do you think a divided government is better than one party calling all the shots in the Michigan of today?

I think it would be good to have balanced because we're in a period of decline, an accelerating decline.

And that decline is in partially in part due to the practices and the policies that have been passed in Lansing would have been so onerous.

I actually want an easy one.

Is the removal of a right to work.

If you looked at economic development, our state, the number of projects, the number of organizations looking to expand in Michigan, that number dropped significantly.

It increased dramatically when we passed right to work and it dropped significantly after right to work was repealed.

There are simply fewer organizations looking to come to Michigan, grow in Michigan and create jobs in Michigan.

I find your comment on divided government being good.

Interesting, because if to correct me if I'm wrong here, you did not have a divided government and I never heard you say anything about we ought to have a divided government.

And I missed something there, sir.

I knew that.

Yeah, I figured that was your setup question.

I knew that one was coming.

And so I'm happy to respond.

If you look at and I mentioned in this current environment where we're in a period of decline, when I was down.

Unemployment rate is down, the inflation rate is down, but the state is creating jobs.

And if you talk to the Democrats, they say, yes, there's more to be done, but we've made a great indentation in the problems that you guys created.

Yeah, look at the population of Michigan.

Which direction is that gone?

It's declined.

Well, that started on your watch, too.

No, it went out.

Actually, if you look at the facts, it increased during my time as governor and it started declining after I left office.

So let me see if I get this straight.

You're blaming the Democrats for people leaving Michigan?

I'm not blaming them.

I'm saying that it's represents a period of decline.

And I think that's a factual statement.

So to give you my other model, when you ask about your question of divided government, it's about how you act and how you bring stability to the table.

So one of the proudest statistics I had when I was governor is I kept track or the percentage of bills I signed that had a majority of Republicans and a majority of Democrats in the House, a majority of Republicans and a majority of Democrats in the Senate and that percentage was 87%.

We had Republican control of both chambers, but we worked in a bipartisan fashion, and it was 87% of the bills.

Go look at the percentage today.

It's not going to be anywhere near that.

So I think it's important to get more dialog going on and more balance in Lansing.

Well, that's because the House Republican leader told his caucus, don't vote on any of this Democratic stuff.

Well, again, everyone's working together and I think it's many more cases of what's happening on the Democratic side in terms of the issues they're bringing and how they're working with people.

Again, we had control and we work with both sides of the aisle.

Well, but your side hasn't worked with the other side of the aisle.

Is that a fair statement?

I'm not sure that's true.

Again, that's what they're being asked to sign off on and the bill is being passed.

I think the mission for Michigan as a good representation and that they have a positive agenda.

They want to see Michigan get back to the House Republicans and they're working hard to do it.

And I believe they have better ideas than what's being proposed or what's currently on the table from the Democratic side.

So have the Democrats, with the trifecta, done anything positive for the state?

I that's a good question.

I would have to give that some thought.

Well, let's think I got time.

Go ahead.

Generally has not been a positive direction that I am concerned about Michigan, and that's one of the reasons I'm out there campaigning.

But it's not.

As you can see, it's still relentless positive action.

I'm not here to blame them.

I'm not to get in a fight with them.

I'm here to say here is a more positive agenda.

Let's all gather together.

Let's have good leadership, which we have at the House.

Let's have some great and House Republican side.

Let's win some key races and then let's have a dialog about moving forward in a constructive way together.

Governor, it's good to see you again.

Good to see you, Tim.

Always great to talk.

Thank you, sir.

Representative Carter, thanks for joining us here on Off the Record.

And are you ready for the usual reactions or to Mr. Snyder?

Oh, sure.

Absolutely.

Let's start out.

His first gripe was, is you've got millions of dollars coming in from special interest groups outside of the state of Michigan.

And he says that's just dead wrong, that nobody should be telling us what to do.

Your reaction to outside money?

I mean, it's also it sounds like sour grapes to me.

He's outside money.

He's outside money and he's funding.

So what we've run into now is that we're in majority.

All of a sudden, there's a different standard to this.

So the rules still apply, are already on when folks want to join.

Folks want to help.

What was the issue when they were winning?

There wasn't one.

There wasn't one.

He he makes the point that outside state interests may not have basically the same interests as those in state.

And so the money ought to stay out.

So, I mean, where do we start?

There are people that are running in districts that get money from outside the districts in state House races.

How do you stop it?

You don't.

I mean, if somebody wants to support you and they think that you're the best candidate and they they they appreciate the work that we've done on something as simple as the gun issue.

Those are not outside interests.

Those are inside interests that needed funding.

Representative, he also took you guys out on the abortion issue, says you were exploiting it and basically it has nothing to do with legislative races.

Well, it could have nothing to do with the legislative races that have nothing to do with national races.

It is an issue, an issue that they've lost on an issue that they continue to hold on to.

That is not a winner for their or their party.

I mean, these are these are complaints.

I'm sure if the tables were turned, we probably have some complaints as well.

But I don't think there valid.

it is an issue since the overturning of Roe v Wade.

the overturning of Roe v Wade.

Well, he argues the people of Michigan settled the issue on the ballot.

Yeah.

Okay.

So you are exploiting it?

Yes.

No, we're not exploiting it.

We're using an issue that is very personal to a lot of people in this state, in this country.

End of story End of story.

All right.

He also says divided government is much better than one party control.

It's easy for him to say that when he ran the house.

Right.

He had the House, the Senate and the governor and the things that they did, we'd been reversing.

So, yeah, maybe once upon a time that would have been a good thing.

But I think to him now, we're so divided.

Hopefully we can get back to that place where we can do that.

But until then, you know, it is what it is.

I mean, the first time in 40 years that we've had the trifecta on the Democratic side and all of a sudden it's an issue.

What's the issue?

Well, he says when they had total control, they had 87% of the legislation that was signed into law was done bipartisanly.

Where have you guys been working with the other side?

Well, I live in Detroit and I remember emergency management, so I don't know where he gets that idea.

Well, his number is 87% of the bills had bipartisan support.

Your record, he says on that front of working with the R's leaves something to be desired.

Well, I think it's more about the leadership on the R side.

There's been some wonderful legislation, something as simple as repealing the pension tax.

I mean, school aid fund, they've had the opportunity on the other side and it would have been great for their districts.

They've just taken a stance of either voting in committee, they vote, they pass, or we get to the floor and they vote no.

That's not a bipartisan issue.

If it's a good bill, it should matter who it impacts.

It impacts the entire state.

But if they've taken a stance that they're going to be a no, we can't control that.

Well, do you allege that the marching orders were don't support Democratic programs?

You know, I don't make criticisms.

I don't make compliments.

I make observations.

Look at the votes.

Well, when you look, what do you see?

I see no's on the other side of the aisle on something that I think should really be bipartisan.

Are you willing to work with the Republicans?

Absolutely.

Absolutely.

He also says that under your control, Democrats control, that we are in for a period of decline.

And he points to the loss of right to work as one of those areas of decline.

Well, one of the areas of decline was population.

And I know a lot of retirees that moved out of the state when you start taxing their pensions.

So it's a subjective word, decline.

I think we've added more manufacturing jobs in the last four years, according to the data that I've seen.

So you're arguing that under them, times were not better, there was a decline there?

Absolutely.

All right.

He also says that basically they were successful with jobs.

Jobs were better.

Inflation was lower, growth was great.

And, you know, when the Republicans had control, they made things better.

So I'll say this to you, too, and I had this conversation the other day.

Are you better off than you were four years ago?

Now, I have to remind people, four years ago, I got Covid, a bunch of other people got covid.

Hospitals were bringing in refrigerated trucks to store bodies.

So it's it all depends on how people want to look at it.

We thought the world was coming to an end.

We had no leadership.

But thank goodness we had some here in a state.

And then we got some federally.

So when we talk about, we can be nostalgic about what happened years ago, but the world has changed.

Every few years, technology comes into play.

AI wasn't an issue then.

So you have to look at it from a different lens that some things are going to happen no matter who's in charge.

And I think these are just a lot of criticisms from somebody on the sideline now that that, you know, is trying to move the needle toward his his team.

And that's fine.

But let's be realistic and honest about where we are today and where we were four years ago.

Well, he he says if we move forward in a constructive way, we can work together.

I agree with that.

I'm always willing to work.

I was willing to work when I was in the minority.

I'm willing to work when we're in a majority.

No matter what happens on the fifth.

I'm willing to work because I have to have the best interests of the people of the state.

Period.

My district.

My state.

All right.

Thank you.

All right.

Take care.

Our thanks to both gentlemen for sitting down for a cross-examination.

And our thanks to you for another insightful off the record.

And if you're still around next week, come right back here.

We have more to say, I'm sure, on what's going to happen.

See you then.

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